The Syndicate

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:24 pmsabie GOAT

False, Hally GOAT.

(G’day btw)

Wait what is day zero?

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:49 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:48 pm Wait what is day zero?
its just a check in phase before the game really starts. you can think of it like d1 extended. some syndicate games do it, idk why

So I get to have an extra phase believing my reads are good before being confronted by cold reality? Sweet.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:52 pm Real talk, I’ve been dying for a game I actually enjoy for awhile, so I’m just gonna have fun this game

I’ll give reads too don’t worry but priority number one is having fun

I’m unironically scumreading this.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:57 pm smh me for actually posting a solvy thought this early in a game

we can go back to meming and then revisit what i said in like 12 hrs

Just switch between meme hally and solve Hally constantly like Jekyll and Hyde.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:59 pm
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:58 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:52 pm Real talk, I’ve been dying for a game I actually enjoy for awhile, so I’m just gonna have fun this game

I’ll give reads too don’t worry but priority number one is having fun
I’m unironically scumreading this.
why?

Like I believe he wants to mess around and have fun. I think that’s a real thought and it’s not AI. But I feel like Town Nanook just does it and wolf Nanook wants to do it but gets worried about perception and posts a pre-disclaimer.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:05 am i was about to say ash seems towny but lol @ tr’ing ash for anything

This was me about you reading the finale but then I went and locked you town anyway.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:49 am i have a scum read already

whoever can tell me who it is gets town points

Is it Michelle?

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:55 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:54 am
Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:49 am i have a scum read already

whoever can tell me who it is gets town points
Is it Michelle?
why do you say that?

Because her post gave me the same sort of “hmm” vibes I got from her entry in the finale and I thought maybe you got the same feeling, especially after wolfing with her.

Just has a bit of a “I’m here, here’s some reads, obligation fulfilled, later guys” feel.

Haha look at these noobs who didn’t read the rules.

*has also not read the rules and appreciates other people making mistakes so he doesn’t have to*

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:13 am I’m unironically locking both Michelle and arete town

I’m here for it. Show me what you got.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:17 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:15 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:13 am I’m unironically locking both Michelle and arete town
I’m here for it. Show me what you got.
What do you mean show you what I got

I just did they’re lock town

Right but you said unironically.

Unless you meant “unironically” ironically.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:19 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:18 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:17 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:15 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:13 am I’m unironically locking both Michelle and arete town
I’m here for it. Show me what you got.
What do you mean show you what I got

I just did they’re lock town
Right but you said unironically.

Unless you meant “unironically” ironically.
No I meant unironically in the literal sense

How is this confusing

Well I’m just sort of assuming that if you’re locking people town in a no-shit, no-joking way you would have reasons and I’m interested to know what you’re seeing that I’m not seeing.

Poison Chan wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:32 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:59 am
Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:55 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:54 am
Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:49 am i have a scum read already

whoever can tell me who it is gets town points
Is it Michelle?
why do you say that?
Because her post gave me the same sort of “hmm” vibes I got from her entry in the finale and I thought maybe you got the same feeling, especially after wolfing with her.

Just has a bit of a “I’m here, here’s some reads, obligation fulfilled, later guys” feel.
Hey ash! i remember you from spec chat!
also,
wew ash is serious.

I’m too old to meme properly.

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:36 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:34 am
Poison Chan wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:32 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:59 am
Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:55 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:54 am
Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:49 am i have a scum read already

whoever can tell me who it is gets town points
Is it Michelle?
why do you say that?
Because her post gave me the same sort of “hmm” vibes I got from her entry in the finale and I thought maybe you got the same feeling, especially after wolfing with her.

Just has a bit of a “I’m here, here’s some reads, obligation fulfilled, later guys” feel.
Hey ash! i remember you from spec chat!
also,
wew ash is serious.
I’m too old to meme properly.
Ur avi suits u then. Whos that old boomer on ur avi?

Sir Humphrey Appleby, Permanent Secretary for the Department of Administrative Affairs, from the classic British comedy Yes Minister.

Hally has done like 20 things already this game that make me want to town read her and that makes me want to scum read her.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:18 am I think I might’ve found an above rand tell for ash actually but we’ll see

You probably haven’t. I’m still way within my wolf range.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:36 am Except ash apparently who either left the tab open and forgot about it or is ignoring me

Either way I’m sad!

Cooking dinner, checking phone intermittently.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:50 am Btw, curious how good you expect your reads to be this game?

I went 5/12 for n1 guesses in semis/finale, so about 40% accurate I guess.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:05 am Also you’re British yeah? Or do I just have that in my head cause of your avatar

I'm Australian.

I probably won't do any meta-diving.

In terms of confidence level, there's the inside view and the outside view, right? From the outside view I understand I often have bad, overconfident reads. But from the inside, when I really lock onto a read I can get ultra convinced of it to the point I can't really comprehend being wrong. As my presence in this game attests (I was so sure Dya was scum...)

So yeah. Expect me to be slightly above rand in accuracy but to talk like I've seen everyone's role cards.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:21 am I have a question. Is it normal for people on this site to claim mafia as town? I’m playing my first game here.

On principle, I scumread Hally, ted and tutuu already, because they all claimed mafia and I don’t like that.

Tutuu’s followup where she claims cop instead doesn’t make me feel better about her slot; instead, it makes me think she’s mafia, who thinks that these claims are Funny and Towny. They are not.

Hally’s post that they were being scummy on purpose reads like a mafia excuse. I do not buy it it. This is still a mafia read.

Light townread on Ash Lael for his take on NANOOK. I think it was a good take, and I like the way it was phrased. Concise, to the point, no unnecessary flair, no hedging or doubt.

Post #137 by Hally contains some useful information if Hally’s mafia. Namely, it spews Michelle town in that world. I don’t like either of the takes on Michelle even without my scumread on Hally; they feel quite forced, and the first one comes across as written in bad faith. “Oh, I was totally being scummy on purpose and they ignored it, so they are mafia for ignoring my scummy self.”

The fact it is prefaced by “at the risk of jumping the gun” is also the type of hedge I read as mafia indicative. It preemptively establishes that “the person writing the post can be wrong, and that you should consider that if you kill Michelle and she flips town.”

I also don’t like Hally’s later townread on Michelle, because it feels forced. I don’t mind the progression change nearly as much as I do mind the reasoning behind the read. “She made a read on me involving me posting a spoiler, which is towny, so I will read you town now.” It doesn’t sound genuine to me.

You could disregard my mafia reads if it is common to claim mafia here, but I think tutuu and Hally have both crossed into “mafia even outside of their mafia claims” territory.

Ash Lael is legitimately my only townread so far and even that one is light. In fact, while writing this post, I think I should shift him back to null, because my reason for townreading him is rather thin to begin with.

Arete still has not posted anything outside of their mafia range. Unsurprisingly, since they have barely posted substantial stuff.

Off-Topic: Looks like Hally is in the same club of mafia where Arete belongs as well. “People who were in Champs but still call themselves bad at mafia for some reason.” You guys are good, and I’m going to treat you with respect of your play within the game. Which means, no easy clears. Have fun, Hally, the one who did not want to feel pressured

I like this post.

Hey Nanook, I think I will meta-dive you quickly. Give me one scum game and one town game.

I'm looking for something specific.

Ok, never mind my meta dive.

I thought having a lot of town reads without any scum reads might be indicative of scum who knows everyone is town and can't make up bullshit reasons to scumread them. But it seems like he does that as town too. So meh.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:31 am What game/s did you look at?

I looked at escape from trump tower. Briefly looked at amdibals but that one it didn't seem like you were really even into the game or something.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:36 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:33 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:31 am What game/s did you look at?
I looked at escape from trump tower. Briefly looked at amdibals but that one it didn't seem like you were really even into the game or something.
What made you choose those two?

Amdibals: Was top of the page of previous heists.
Escape from Trump tower: Oh that's the one that came before this one hey? Yeah let's look.

Why are you even asking? Obviously it's arbitrary.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:52 am How come you didn’t look at a mafia game too, ash, by the way?

Because once I saw that it wasn't a scumtell for you my question was answered and I had no reason to keep looking.

Players I currently feel are pretty towny but refuse to call actual townreads because it's early and they're good players and blah blah blah:

Vulgard
Hally

Players that have been present but failed to do anything that I can feel comfortable reading one way or the other yet:

112
Arete
tedxtr
Poison

Players that have not been present:

DrWilgy
Dunya
Long Con
TonyStarkPrime
TripleHaven

Players that I currently feel are pretty scummy but I refuse to call actual scumreads because it's early and I know I'm prone to mistunneling and blah blah blah:

Michelle
tutuu
Nanook

I see poison has started playing for real.

So far I like it.

Poison Chan wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:40 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:53 am Jesus Christ I have four already

Quick someone make a joke and/or ask me a serious question I can deflect from with an annoying and/or obnoxious retort
I wonder what "four" is in the context

Try hard Joke 1 :

Oh nvm I can't make jokes would borrow one from the Internet later.

He’s talking about town reads.

Tutuu’s overreaction to suspicion is really not rubbing me the right way.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:20 am I initially believed that tutuu's claim just now was towny, but then I realized it doesn't make sense for her to believe what she said. "Building imperfect cases on purpose and pointing it out for the sake of pocketing." That sounds like an incredibly forced reason to suggest that my push is not town-motivated.

I agree, but I also think it’s just simpler than that. It’s very very important to tutuu that the suspicion you’ve placed on her goes away. I think a townie looks at what you’ve written and says “well he’s wrong, but he’s reasonable, he’ll re-evaluate.” Tutuu comes at you all guns blazing.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:27 am Judging by what NANOOK just said, it's apparently normal for tutuu to overreact to early suspicion. I don't think I'm getting much more out of this for the time being.

Ash, any thoughts about NANOOK?

Nanook has been ringing false to me from the start. Didn’t like his “unironic” townreads that he refused to provide reasons for. Didn’t feel like real reads or a real joke. I felt like his “why those games?” question to me was a busywork kind of question that scum ask to look towny rather than something he actually expected to help him solve, and I don’t buy his explanation that he thought he could maybe catch me out as not having really looked. Felt like a slapped on justification after the fact. Things like that.

None of this is terribly solid of course but that’s where I am right now.

Poison Chan wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:40 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:16 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:05 am Also you’re British yeah? Or do I just have that in my head cause of your avatar
I'm Australian.

I probably won't do any meta-diving.

In terms of confidence level, there's the inside view and the outside view, right? From the outside view I understand I often have bad, overconfident reads. But from the inside, when I really lock onto a read I can get ultra convinced of it to the point I can't really comprehend being wrong. As my presence in this game attests (I was so sure Dya was scum...)

So yeah. Expect me to be slightly above rand in accuracy but to talk like I've seen everyone's role cards.
Sorry but I don't get it, what do you mean exactly by inside and the outside thing?

Sorry, it’s an expression I’m used to but most people aren’t familiar with.

The outside view is looking at the world from outside yourself. You know that sometimes people get convinced of things that are wrong, so maybe this thing you are convinced of is wrong.

But at the same time you are CONVINCED. That’s the inside view.

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:44 am Ash buddy are u sure ur reads are gonna be slightly above rand in terms of accuracy

No, because you’re pushing all my “deathtunnel this” buttons and I don’t expect the game to be that easy.

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:57 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:52 am
tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:44 am Ash buddy are u sure ur reads are gonna be slightly above rand in terms of accuracy
No, because you’re pushing all my “deathtunnel this” buttons and I don’t expect the game to be that easy.
Nods, nods

Well im glad u townread me now

Now townread nanook too pls

No I still scumread you. I don’t have the confidence that I’ve caught a wolf already to fully commit to it but I’m sure as hell not going to reverse my read on that basis.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:03 am Every time somebody openwolfs, I put them a tier lower on my internal readlist.

I don’t actually think it’s >rand scum but it does make me emotionally want to scum read them because I would hate to lose to it.

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:11 am <--- if u scumread this avatar ur a monster

Now we just need a Blossom.

Poison Chan wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:27 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:03 am Players I currently feel are pretty towny but refuse to call actual townreads because it's early and they're good players and blah blah blah:

Vulgard
Hally

Players that have been present but failed to do anything that I can feel comfortable reading one way or the other yet:

112
Arete
tedxtr
Poison

Players that have not been present:

DrWilgy
Dunya
Long Con
TonyStarkPrime
TripleHaven

Players that I currently feel are pretty scummy but I refuse to call actual scumreads because it's early and I know I'm prone to mistunneling and blah blah blah:

Michelle
tutuu
Nanook
Umm okay so, okay this is weirdly decent I can never really produce a list this early a game. Maybe experience does it?

How long have you been playing ash?

This is my 5th game.

Yeah. I’m a noob.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:12 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:39 am I see poison has started playing for real.

So far I like it.
:fry:

I see ted has started playing for real.

It’s okay.

Poison Chan wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:29 am
tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:21 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:17 am
tedxtr wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:12 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:39 am I see poison has started playing for real.

So far I like it.
:fry:
I see ted has started playing for real.

It’s okay.
i will be shocked if theres anyone who can confidently read ted
I would die to meet that "anyone"

I guarantee I will be able to read ted confidently this game.

Confidently and correctly? Well, that’s another question.

The tutuu algorithm: Posting = town.

I swear tutuu is an artificial intelligence designed specifically to get scumread by me.

Excessively self aware? Check.

Overreacts to pressure? Check.

Openwolfing? Check.

Overtly performative? Check.

Townreading everyone? Check.

At this rate I’m expecting a player salad to come out of her any moment now.

If you don’t know what a player salad is I won’t tell you, in the hope you do it.

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:51 am
tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:50 am i think nutella is town
wait shes not in the game did i just do a player salad oopsie xD

Don’t worry, if/when you do, I’ll let you know.

Talk to me about tutuu and Nanook, Hally. Why are they town?

Vulgard wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:44 am 112 and Michelle have not done enough for me to have a read on them.

I have a theory that Ash could be mafia. There's something about his play I just don't like, and it keeps on nagging at me. He seems a little too... agreeable, if that makes sense. His NANOOK scumread surprised me, because Ash had never pushed NANOOK prior to making that read, and he has not pushed NANOOK since then, as far as I can tell. It is not mafia indicative, but it is something I am keeping in mind.

I'm currently conflicted on tutuu. On the one hand, I think my reasons for suspecting her are solid. On the other hand, she is still continuing a very bizarre play pattern I scumread her for (and I was not the only one!), she has not changed her play whatsoever to appeal to me, nor has she done anything beyond what I've already said that came across as scummy to me. I'm starting to wonder if I'm scumreading her personality instead of her actual play.

Hally's re-entrance into the thread did not ping me either way. The fact I'm called obvious town by Hally seems... weirdly dismissive, just like the way I felt when tutuu responded to me in that one post.

First time I’ve been accused of being too agreeable, lol.

I’m trying to avoid getting myself too dug in on any one read or any one player too early this game, when we still have half a dozen players who haven’t posted and another couple who haven’t done anything very significant.

You might not have noticed but I actually started scumreading Nanook very early. He pre-announced that he was going to be using a different play style in a way that looked like asking for permission. Like I’m playing less aggressive than I normally do, but I didn’t feel the need to warn everybody about it.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:52 am
Ash Lael wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:37 am Talk to me about tutuu and Nanook, Hally. Why are they town?
it’s hard to point to specific things because it’s more a general impression but i get the sense they’re genuinely solving in a way that’s consistent with their town selves as i know them

ig to be more specific, for tutuu what i can say beyond just “vibes” is that i think her tr on me for using a spoiler in one of my posts is the kind of wacky read that scum just don’t think to fake usually but a villager will actually have thoughts like that. i thought the same about how she responded to vul’s push by saying he was doubting it to pocket her or something. it was again kinda out there and i don’t think it’s actually what vul was doing but i think it’s a towny reaction for tutuu to have because again, scum don’t often think to fake those kinds of micro reads especially under pressure

for nook, it really is more just a general vibe that he actually cares. like i kinda doubt scum!nook would write those posts about just having fun and not giving reads unless he wants to and then proceed to be highly involved and give lots of reads early on. it’s kinda like tutuus “says he’s going to bed but stays to post” read. it’s like he just can’t help himself but be here. and nothing he’s done while here has struck me as fake given what i know of him

How well do you know them, and how confident are you? Because this is my first game with either.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:21 am I feel like there is something to be said about me and tutuu suddenly having the exact same mafia reads, but I'll refrain from saying a thing.

Yeah she’s being blatantly opportunistic in changing her read to take advantage of the thread’s shift against me.

I’m pretty sure your read is sincere. Hers isn’t.

Who’s in the mood for some vote count analysis before we have any actual votes?

Currently I have Ted, Vulgard, tutuu and kinda-sorta-Hally all on me in spirit. Wolves will usually not bunch up a lot, in a wagon of four voters you’ll rarely have more than one. Equally, a wagon of four voters will rarely have no wolves. When you’ve got a bit of movement happening towards a townie usually one will want to move with the thread and find a way to climb on board.

Obviously I think tutuu is the opportunistic wolf in this group. Assuming I’m right about that, it implies that the other three are town. I was already getting to feel pretty comfy about Vulgard, but the other two have been indecipherable and inner-conflict-inducing, respectively. Being able to anti-associate them with my top scumread feels good.

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