The Syndicate

Cheers, dingoes ate my baby, didgeridoo!

I can’t read anyone so I’m not going to pretend to try.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:53 pm

DFaraday wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:51 pm Cheers, dingoes ate my baby, didgeridoo!

I can’t read anyone so I’m not going to pretend to try.

what're you gonna do instead?

Hopefully play the way I used to: Look at inconsistencies in players' statements, observe voting patterns (if I live that long), and examine how effects of role abilities could be linked to specific players.

My initial comment meant "I can't read anyone's meta." I've never been any good at differentiating a player's town game from their scum game, so I mostly just approach every player on a game by game basis.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:04 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:58 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:28 pm @DFaraday

You have a history of missing day phases and ending games with under 10 posts. I understand that irl stuff happens but It has become a pattern.

I would absolutely love to play a mafia game with you but that’s going to require you to play a mafia game with me as well.

Please post.

You're mafia.

No you.

If I was mafia, I wouldn’t start the game with a push on a guy who tends to get himself lynched all on his own.

Why wouldn't you? In a game with so few players, nearly all of which are vanilla, every town vote is significant. The usual approach of leaving me for late game won't fly here, since in a few phases I could conceivably pop back in after a hiatus and cast a deciding vote. It might be a better approach for the Mafia to go for a softball right out of the gate to get a jump on the numbers without really putting themselves on the line in the way they might in trying to fabricate a case on a more prominent player.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:56 am

DFaraday wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:55 amMy initial comment meant "I can't read anyone's meta." I've never been any good at differentiating a player's town game from their scum game, so I mostly just approach every player on a game by game basis.

Me too, man! Wanna bro it up?

After catching up, I don't feel super strong about most of the field so far, but Nutella is a standout as seeming towny to me. She's offering thoughts on a lot of players, asking questions, not being waffly.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:20 am Why would I fucking buddy DF even if I was a wolf? There’s only about a 25% chance he even votes today.

I don’t believe you believe the things you are saying.

Gonna go ahead and vote [VOTE: Jack] aubergine for now.

Dom wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:38 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:07 am

Dom wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:32 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:24 pm @Dom

Why is that post suspicious?

What was your aim?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:25 pm Dom doesn’t get himself lynched.

When was the last time Dom got lynched at all? DF gets lynched practically every game.

I'm unclear as to what you point is.

To get DF to post. Because he doesn’t. And I don’t want to roll the dice on his alignment. I want him to play.

Again, why is it suspicious?

My point is two people said they though I was talking about you and I wasn’t. Clearing that up.

Whats your point in Dom never gets lynched vs DF always does?

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:35 am did I understood correct, Jack is suspicious because he pinged a low poster to play?

I'd like to find out if he is suspicious for doing so.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:55 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:53 pm

DFaraday wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:51 pm Cheers, dingoes ate my baby, didgeridoo!

I can’t read anyone so I’m not going to pretend to try.

what're you gonna do instead?

Hopefully play the way I used to: Look at inconsistencies in players' statements, observe voting patterns (if I live that long), and examine how effects of role abilities could be linked to specific players.

My initial comment meant "I can't read anyone's meta." I've never been any good at differentiating a player's town game from their scum game, so I mostly just approach every player on a game by game basis.

I'd love to see the old DF back.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:12 am After catching up, I don't feel super strong about most of the field so far, but Nutella is a standout as seeming towny to me. She's offering thoughts on a lot of players, asking questions, not being waffly.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:20 am Why would I fucking buddy DF even if I was a wolf? There’s only about a 25% chance he even votes today.

I don’t believe you believe the things you are saying.

Gonna go ahead and vote [VOTE: Jack] aubergine for now.

But this ain't it. Do you even remember what nutella was like?

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:32 am @Sloonei all of your posts so far are entirely devoid of spice. I see no real takes. I want takes

You want takes?
On what?

I think Nutella is waffly in nearly every game we’ve played together, regardless of what her alignment turns out to be. That she doesn’t strike me that way here feels like a good sign to me.

After their most recent exchange I'm feeling like TSP and Nutella are both town. At the very least, I doubt they're teammates because their lengthy misunderstanding discussion felt too meandering and inconsequential to be a planned interaction.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:19 am

DFaraday wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:17 am After their most recent exchange I'm feeling like TSP and Nutella are both town. At the very least, I doubt they're teammates because their lengthy misunderstanding discussion felt too meandering and inconsequential to be a planned interaction.

You should stop voting for me.

But you're unlynchable, so it won't matter anyway.

I meant to respond earlier to your post asking us for reasons for voting you. I felt I was pretty clear in my earlier post, but to reiterate I think it's entirely conceivable that scum could try to instigate a low-risk lynch on someone like me in order to get a numbers advantage early, since in a game like this if I hang around until Day 4 or 5 like usual I could be a difference maker. I don't know for sure that's what you were doing, but you seemed to dismiss the possibility without any consideration, which was more of a bad look imo.

I don't find Nutella suspicious, so I don't plan on voting her. If you have a good case for someone else I'd be willing to listen.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:08 am I gave Michelle a town read because the energy in her posts seemed to be trending in a constructive direction, but I haven’t seen many other opinions on her besides Tony’s failing her for her response to his mechanic chatter. How do we read her?

I just went through her posts, and noticed a lot of questions and very little in the way of offering her own views. I've never played with her that I can recall; is this normal behaviour for her?

(I spelt "behaviour" the Australian way for the game. Also "spelt.")

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:04 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:49 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:39 pm Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I do not follow. Nutella did not vote for Tony, and I find it a bit of a stretch to assume that Jack was killed for the purpose of silencing his criticism of nutella. Plus, we now know that Jack would have been a perfectly viable counterwagon yesterday if nutella was bad and the mafia team wanted to save her. There wouldn’t have been a need for any of them to push to Tony (and no reason not to. My point is that I don’t see how this pair of deaths reflects poorly on nutella specifically). Is there more to this suspicion?

So you don't think the kill was a frame of me? That was my first thought, and that sabie either bought it or is promoting the narrative that I'm scum.

I think it's the second option. I actually began thinking there might be a Sabie/Michelle connection yesterday, but didn't want to say anything explicit during the night. My theory is that Michelle forced suspicion on Tony, then had to double down on it as their interaction continued, and Sabie just parroted her teammate's suspicion. Sabie's post today makes me feel even less warm towards her, since it's basically shouting, "WOW HOW SUSPICIOUS DOES THIS KILL MAKE NUTELLA LOOK, RIGHT GUYS?"

Also, here are all of Sabie's posts regarding suspicions of Jack, Nutella, and Tony:

sabie12 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:53 pm So right now I'm feeling suspicious of both Jack and nutella. Jack specifically commented on everyone in response to g man's post except me. He would have actually had to delete my name from the original post because now it's not there. Jack has played multiple games with me so why leave me out? Accidentally forgot me? Maybe... So far whenever I've played a game with jack and he's been mafia he makes it a point not to accuse me and ends up lulling me into a false sense of security just to come out and win in the end. Last time I realized just one lynch too late that it had happened again. He said hi to me in the beginning of the game so he knows I'm here. Also, I'm not sure how to take the whole making a big deal about DFs playstyle in the beginning.

I know nutella can be waffley a lot of times but some of what she's said kind of pinged me such as saying she didn't even know that Jack already votes and thinking tony would have tmi this early in the game. Some of her posts are just contradicting statements.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:07 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:59 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:53 pm So right now I'm feeling suspicious of both Jack and nutella. Jack specifically commented on everyone in response to g man's post except me. He would have actually had to delete my name from the original post because now it's not there. Jack has played multiple games with me so why leave me out? Accidentally forgot me? Maybe... So far whenever I've played a game with jack and he's been mafia he makes it a point not to accuse me and ends up lulling me into a false sense of security just to come out and win in the end. Last time I realized just one lynch too late that it had happened again. He said hi to me in the beginning of the game so he knows I'm here. Also, I'm not sure how to take the whole making a big deal about DFs playstyle in the beginning.

I know nutella can be waffley a lot of times but some of what she's said kind of pinged me such as saying she didn't even know that Jack already votes and thinking tony would have tmi this early in the game. Some of her posts are just contradicting statements.

What are your thoughts on G-man and Tony?

Tony I'm not sure. He's pretty defensive of Jack but when he's been bad in the past he posted more and did more "reads" right away. He seems more tentative so far so I could go either way on him. What's your suspicion of him from?


Gman is putting a good amount of effort in. I don't think I ever played a game where he was mafia so Ive only seen his civ game. I don't think he has said anything sketchy so far.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:33 am I have suspicions on all three of the people with votes. In looking through Tony's posts a lot of his focus is on jack. He makes it a point to say "if I'm nightkilled jack is scum" and that he needs a few days to figure him out subtle ways of saying dont lynch me im town without actually saying it. When he was mafia in the past his main focus of discussion was his own teammates so if they got killed off he could be like see I'm not bad. Ive seen jack do this as well. Also his post making it a point to say how many mislynches we can have was a little sketchy. I see a lot of fair points on him and he hasnt done much to counteract these points.

Jack I've expressed my suspicion on him. There's a fair amount of back and forth discussion on him but I'm still leaning towards thinking he is mafia.

Nutella can be very difficult to read as she does often follow the waves of the thread but her response to things so far hasn't made me feel confident about her being town.

This day 1 is hard there are fair points on all three. Voting tony as I feel worst about him and his efforts thus far.

Her first two posts cast suspicion almost entirely on Jack and Nutella, while saying that Tony has been defensive of Jack and she could "go either way" on him. However, her next relevant post sees her apparently much more suspicious of Tony for discussing an alleged teammate (Jack), when this didn't seem so damning in her earlier assessment. Also note that this development and her subsequent vote follow shortly after Michelle's vote for Tony.

I'm going to [VOTE: Sabie] aubergine for now, but I don't discourage Michelle voters either.

I agree with Sloonei’s arguments pertaining to Nutella, she’s not a strong town read for me at this point. I don’t agree on the Sabie town read, since in the absence of other viable lynches it doesn’t strike me as unlikely for two teammates to distance when they’re both on the chopping block.

LC is playing a weird game, but I don’t know if he’d be this cavalier as a baddie (again, I don’t pay much attention to meta).

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 22, 2019 1:15 am I feel like G-man's iso looks like it contains a lot of effort but not a lot of actual gameplay. Mostly the isos he did -- I feel like he spent a lot of time on those and they didn't really go anywhere, while he wasn't really interacting much with people in more back-and-forth conversation. That's not necessarily scummy, could just be his meta (again I literally do not remember his meta whatsoever lol) or the way he feels like committing time/more analysis-like effort to this game. His push on me d2 was weird and based in his mathy analysis, he voted Michelle last minute when tagging on didn't change the result, and he's actually gone pretty quiet since Michelle's flip.

I think he's a plausible baddie. Someone tell me what I'm missing here.

[VOTE: g-man] aubergine

If there's one thing I know about anyone's meta, it's that charts/lists/ISOs are entirely in G-Man's wheelhouse. I'm actually reading him pretty strongly civ, and would point out that he was reading Michelle as somewhat bad before he voted her. Also I'm not sure what you're getting at regarding G-Man's quietude. Is it a thing for baddie teammates to get quiet after one of them is lynched?

Looking over the votes from Day 2 leave me feeling extremely confident in Dom and Epi. If Sabie is not a teammate of Michelle then it would make no sense for her teammates to vote her at that juncture, and if Sabie was also part of the team, they could have prodded/stuck with the Quin wagon that almost took off.

I'm feeling less confident in Nutella than I have for much of the game, but it seems unlikely she's on a team with either Quin or Sabie given the voting results as well as the suspicions cast between them.

I still don't have a good reason for ruling Quin out, though. And there's not a strong reason LC should be considered town, which (even though we're bros) means he's not cleared. My guess is that the remaining baddies at this point are one of the following combinations:

Quin/Sabie
LC/Sabie
Nutella/LLD
LLD/Any of the above

Be safe, Sabie!

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Nov 22, 2019 5:31 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Fri Nov 22, 2019 11:01 am3) What convinced Dom to leave his vote on Michelle? How did that progression take place. The post containing his vote for her said "for now" but it ended up being for good. That might help me clear my Dom sus.

It could be a bus. His vote followed the strong Michelle-lynch start from Epi and Sloonei, so he wasn't the one pushing the hardest for Michelle. Then those two voted off and Dom stayed. Perfect bus-without-lynching possibility. Dom didn't really give a lot of reasons for others to vote there, just that Michelle was a common thread in the possibilities, along with a couple of other players. The votes swung back, Dom then had to choose whether to change his vote and risk looking like a teammate, or swallow it and try to look good.

His vote's in the perfect place for a bus. Looks a lot like my style of bussing, actually.

The thing is Sabie would have been such a safe place to hide. Dom could have just made a post about the Sabie suspicions and moved his vote there, and probably wouldn’t have even garnered attention with all the vote switching that goes on (besides if Sabie had been lynched we wouldn’t know Michelle was bad anyway). In a game with one bad team and tight numbers to begin with I don’t think bussing on Day 2 is the most likely option.

I think it’s a huge stretch to think that Dom’s vote on Day 2, coming when it did, is the work of a teammate, and it’s suspect that people keep pushing that angle. I’m voting [VOTE: Nutella] aubergine because I think she’s a pretty good bet based on the votes and I want to save Dom.

Funny that Epi did a 180 on me even though his case on me applies pretty well to LC too:

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:43 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:39 pm Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Sounds like it was you. [VOTE: sabie] aubergine

LC, like me, identified Sabie singling out Nutella as suspicious after Tony and Jack's deaths (correctly, as it turns out). His immediate vote on Sabie suggests a defensiveness towards Nutella.

His support of Nutella is made explicit shortly after:

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:35 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:22 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:20 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:08 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:23 pm I've noticed in past games sometimes the mafia players will focus on rules and gameplay so they're participating but not really having to say any reads. I thought maybe he was trying to appear helpful to town. He also made it a point to say he needed time to read jack and if he gets killed jack probably killed him. He was focusing a lot on jack and I was thinking maybe they could be teammates based on the way I've seen both of them play when mafia in the past. Also you had made a decent case on tony that I felt made sense at the time.

I'll have to look more closely at jack and nutella.

Just noting that sabie also used the "bad guys talk about mechanics" argument against Tony.

You got any thoughts on non-sabie players?

I think nutella's ok, I don't suspect her. G-Man too.

So up until this point, LC has been reading Nutella as civ. And Nutella has been civ-reading LC for most of the early game:

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:30 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:43 am I’m unconvinced by the things Tony has said in response to me, but I don’t want the discussion to end there.

Long Con and G-man are the other two players I’ve felt directly suspicious of for more than a brief moment this game. I’ve held off on G-man because he hasn’t played in forever and he’s good company. And some of my pings could just be derived from his eagerness to get back in the action.

Long Con has felt a little flat. I may or may not be able to substatntiate that.

How are these real reads

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:51 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:49 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:30 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:43 am I’m unconvinced by the things Tony has said in response to me, but I don’t want the discussion to end there.

Long Con and G-man are the other two players I’ve felt directly suspicious of for more than a brief moment this game. I’ve held off on G-man because he hasn’t played in forever and he’s good company. And some of my pings could just be derived from his eagerness to get back in the action.

Long Con has felt a little flat. I may or may not be able to substatntiate that.

How are these real reads

I’ve read or skimmed most of the thread and my responses have been such that I came out feeling this way about things. I’ve expressed nothing firm or concrete here. Why do you object?

LC is fine imo from the way he framed his jack vote. Gman, idk no real strong opinion I guess but light town lean

So even during early Day 2 Nutella felt mildly positive towards LC. Here is her very next post in which she mentions LC:

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:04 am

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:00 am
OK.
I'll chew on that.

Let's say sabie isn't in the game.

Why do we lynch and why?

At the moment I would say Epi or LC because they are being very go with the flow/unconcerned with actually solving.

These two posts saw her perception of LC go from "fine" to one of her top lynch picks. Nutella specifically cites LC's apparent lack of concern with solving as her main cause for suspicion despite the intervening period seeing LC become significantly more engaged than he had been when she said he was fine. She follows up with proposing a Quin/LC team, yet votes for Quin, prompting this response:

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:19 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:02 pm So... Quin/LC w/w anyone?

[VOTE: quin] aubergine what the heck let's see

That's what you use to implicate me? That post??

Nutella then offers this "reason" for suspecting LC:

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:26 pm LC is being weird in a different way than is usual for him imo. I'm baffled.

She does move her vote to LC during the odd LC/LLD debacle, eventually offering this vague explanation:

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:11 pm he doesn't look good in association with Michelle, like his iso has pretty much no mentions of her until after she flipped

and he's generally been weird in a way that has felt unusual to me, stuff like this:

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:36 am I like how that "Hey, don't vote me! We're voting Jack." makes me look, in light of the night 1 Jack kill. Looks townish fo sho.

LC gets into a minor kerfuffle with Nutella soon after, conveniently summed up in this block:

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 22, 2019 1:19 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Nov 22, 2019 1:16 am

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 22, 2019 1:07 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Nov 22, 2019 12:20 am I'm suspicious of her. I didn't like some of her stuff earlier, which I recall posting about, and this recent stuff was sketchy as well, although she is known for "wishy-washiness", so the "could be"s are on track with that. I don't like how she's coming after me.

this is one whole mess of a post

Yeah, but, you're calling me out on this, and is it really a baddie indicator? How does it make me less Civ in your eyes? I don't really see it, oh, my post has unsure ideas and opinions, let's comment on the nature of the post itself. This reaction makes me more suspicious of you.

Idk. I currently suspect G more than you after skimming his iso again. I can see your weird tone coming from a town angle, you just keep pinging me at face value but who knows man, you are often zany.

LC says he's suspicious of Nutella and briefly gets into it with her, but then changes tack and goes after Dom for the rest of the phase.

Shortly after her previous LC suspicion, Nutella abruptly shifts to G-Man pretty much out of nowhere, moving her vote off of LC to G. Almost as if she never had any intention of trying to get LC lynched. Her final post mentions LC as someone to vote for instead in the most halfhearted of ways.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 22, 2019 8:05 pm Well I guess imma [VOTE: dom] aubergine for the hell of it though I think he has looked pretty town, ugh. If anyone still wants to go for G-man or LC I think those would be more likely to hit scum than Dom bit I will go for whatever is most likely to self pres at this point because I know I'm town. I can see why I look bad here and that I should be resolved but I hope after my flip you will look at the people I've suggested.

My conclusion: all of the suspicions traded between Nutella and LC are nebulous, contrived, or quickly dropped in favor of someone they actually want to lynch. It comes across to me as moderate distancing without a willingness to commit to the bit. I believe it's not only possible, but probable that LC is the remaining scum.

Dom wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:30 am DFaraday--

I'm confused. If Epi's 180 on you is so "funny" why is Epi not the target of your suspicion, instead of LC?

I don't suspect Epi. As I've said before I think the voting record looks very good for Epi. Funny in the sense that it doesn't make sense to me that he's acting as if there's an airtight case on me despite agreeing with my takes and civ reading me quite recently and considering that most of his points apply to LC as well. It's frustrating in a kind of absurd way to me.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:53 am In looking at nutellas ISO she makes it a point to always sort of imply she town reads DF without actually hardcore defending him. She never casts suspicion on him and michelle didnt really offer a read on him either. Maybe that was intentional and DF thought he could hide behind his last minute vote for nutella at the end of the last day.


I don't know going with LC seems too easy like even DF said in a previous post why would LC try to be obvious about it if he really were a baddie. He seems sketchy but I think hes just saying whatever comes to mind randomly as he feels like.

It wasn't quite last minute, and besides I put Nutella up 4-2 at a time when the lynch result was still very much in question.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2019 1:53 pm My change of opinion regarding you has to do with the revelation that nutella was mafia.

Okay, well I don't know what to really say to your case. Yes, I thought Nutella was good most of the game. I was wrong. I thought Sabie was bad, and it sure looks like I was wrong there too. I voted Sabie over Michelle because to my mind either of them could be taken as civ in isolation, but the way their posts unfolded read like teammate coordination, so I felt about equally confident in voting either. That's pretty much all I've got.

The last baddie is LC or LLD. I'm 100% sure of this.

LC is obviously the last baddie. Because let’s be honest, is LLD really sending in night kills?

Until then, enjoy being wrong. Later y’all.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:01 pm LLD could easily be sending them in.

It’s possible, but with how little she’s been present in the thread I have my doubts she’s keeping up with PMs.