The Syndicate

My my! This game started. I'm not going to tell you which Socky Award I represent, but I can tell you that one of you other players is a winner! Congratulations in advance.

Much ado about nothing- that’s Day 0.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:28 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:46 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:05 pm I have a pretty important Socky to present, actually.

Are you implying some Sockys are more important than others?

Socky equality!

More like #AllSockysMatter

M Plus 7: dog-pee or die, mofo!

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:01 am

G-Man wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:56 pm M Plus 7: dog-pee or die, mofo!

Please no. I don't want 470 posts to read tomorrow.

Mwa haa haa!

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:44 am I don't know how to get this going. It's Day 1, is it not?

Memories of speed games from The Piano days are coming back to me. Those were the days when these rapid-paced games weren’t taken so seriously. We had an understanding that those were the kinds of games where everyone could chill out, goof around, and play like crap. Sheer luck won in those games.

Since we no longer live in that era, I don’t know what to tell you. At least everyone has posted so far, which is a better start than most games. Had Day 1 started tonight, my participation could be better. Alas, today is busy and I’ll have to vote well before the deadline.

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]- will there be a running winners list for the awards somewhere as the game goes on? Might be nice for any spectators.

My church just cancelled all evening activities due to the polar vortex of doom, so now you’re stuck with me until the deadline. Lucky you.

Makes you wonder if killing an inactive is the right move.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:48 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:43 pm Makes you wonder if killing an inactive is the right move.

Doesn't it though? (inactive in my eyes being someone inactive in the past 24 hours, btw. Everyone's posted at least once, I think.)

But at the same time, mafia folks are more likely to post just a little to get by IMO. Gives them a way to control the vote if we start going after inactives.

I don't really want to lynch the more active people or the inactives, but how do I choose between people who have only made a few non-game-related posts?

My understanding is similar. I always assume there’s at least one baddie that tries to skate by on minimal content, though. Whether they’re just busy IRL or they want to make themselves harder to find by offering fewer posts to analyze. Sometimes it’s just someone who doesn’t post as much in general.

The last time I saw baddies dominate the game by having all their members among the most talkative and active players was one of Golden the Coward’s Lost games. The 24-hour phase makes it tough though. There’s no guarantee that people can make their schedules fit around the start of the game but a baddie is just as likely to take advantage of the understanding that timing sucks in 24/24 games sometimes.

I plan on not taking things too seriously this Day 1, so let’s just lynch someone and reveal another Socky winner.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:45 pm

reywaS wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:52 am [VOTE: S~V~S] aubergine

A nostalgia vote for SVS, but she's also quite obviously bad bad bad.

Thanks alot I would return the favor, but it looks like you already have a vote (becasue you do/do not like socks?) and I would rather not place a second joke vote on someone with such a spread.

I see that Nova didn't really explain his LC vote. I saw DDL did but I don't see what was opportunistic about LC's vote, although I think Bob is more likely trying to relive the fun he had with Presidential quotes (unless he does this self imposed posting gimmick all the time?) than anything.

Still not loving G Mans vote, plus I see he is making feints at no shows when I seem to recall that we have a few replacements.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:15 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:01 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:29 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:00 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:54 pm Ugh, the poll has way too many single votes on it right now.

Maybe you could fix that?

Lol last time someone called Luna out for not practicing what she was preaching she was bad

I don't necessarily suspect her for it here though. Only so much one can do

But we only have 4.5 hours so yeah who should we start grouping votes onto? I'd love to hear thoughts other than my own

The way you start the sentence with "lol" before throwing shade at someone then saying you won't "necessarily" vote for them triggered my senses.

I too, don't feel comfortable trusting nutella.

Why not? Nutella lols quite a bit, why do you think it is alignment indicative? If you had to vote now, who would you vote for?

I have to finish my Socky thing, if I had to vote now it would be G Man, but as Luna says, we should be tightening up rather than spreading out more.

My Spider-Sense or my S~V~S Auto Sus- which one is tingling right now?

Mention tags start with the @ symbol, which would have wrecked my shenanigans. I also tend to ignore a lot of people’s questions. I’m also getting pretty good at spotting baddie bullsuit early-game accusations against me (like Nutella in Vanilla). Your supposed expectations of my play don’t smell right. Prove me wrong.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:54 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:47 pm Mention tags start with the @ symbol, which would have wrecked my shenanigans. I also tend to ignore a lot of people’s questions. I’m also getting pretty good at spotting baddie bullsuit early-game accusations against me (like Nutella in Vanilla). Your supposed expectations of my play don’t smell right. Prove me wrong.

"Wrecking your shenanigans"?

That vote would have caught my eye regardless of who made it. Whatever baddie BS you think you are spotting it isnt from me becasue I am not bad. And "proof", lol, cute.

My shenanigans and my vote are mutually exclusive events. Maybe you’ll spot it in time.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:00 pm All of G-man's posts starts with M.

M = Mafia

M = Magnificent

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:23 pm G began all posts with L last game so I figure he is just going through the alphabet cause he's a weirdo.

Magnifico! I’ve only been doing this since Battlestar Galactica. Glad you folks are catching on.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:46 pm Can't wait until X comes around.

Man, I thought K was bad. X will be brutal but entertaining for everyone.

My vote’s staying put. Dude won’t show, dude must go.

May you rest in peace, Long Con.

Congratulations DH!

My day is going to be pretty busy but I should be able to do a full re-read between lunch and breaks. The deadline ends after the kids’ bedtime, so I might be around for EOD.

RIP nova. Congratulations DDL! Will all the winners’ names start with D this year? Oh, the suspense!

My day just keeps getting better.

No clue on my availability tonight. I’m placing a vote on S~V~S for now over her initial insight into Enrique and LC. It smells like the kind of maligned meta arguments I’ve seen her and others use against me in order to sell a mislynch without looking obvious.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:15 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:52 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:13 pm I am struggling fam. Kill me plz.

I don't know what this is.

I have gone away for the weekend (and also have a bit of a cold) so I am struggling to participate and was requesting the Mafia to kill me which they didna do.

Mac, I tried that once (in all Joker memes, no less). It never works when you want it to.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:35 pm @Lunalee @G-Man why are you voting svs

My previous post was pretty straightforward, no?

G-Man wrote: ↑Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:53 pm My day just keeps getting better.

No clue on my availability tonight. I’m placing a vote on S~V~S for now over her initial insight into Enrique and LC. It smells like the kind of maligned meta arguments I’ve seen her and others use against me in order to sell a mislynch without looking obvious.

Masochists

reywaS wrote: ↑Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:10 pm but you are a cool cat gman...i just am a rock star that votes on a whim and think that enrique train is bull shite

Makes no difference to me. I’d have liked to keep my vote on S~V~S but I’ve been dying earlier than I care to lately, so I did the “I want to live!” thing for a change.

The cool thing about this game is that, even if we lynch a civvie, we still get a Socky reveal. We need to get our collective crap together soon but at least we don’t have to just stew and be mad when we’re wrong.

If I am lynched, I’ll have to remind myself of that but it’ll still be fun when I die. Let’s just say I have a special guest doing my presentation for me.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:34 am My voting for gman is because hes very nonchalant about being okay with a civ being lynched as long as the game keeps moving and he just goes after people who barely participated so theres nothing to go on.

My nonchalance has less to do with this specific game and more to do with my general approach to the game of mafia itself.

RIP Enrique.

Congrats Rico! I hope he comes back to accept his award in person. He’s another person who’s been waiting a long time for some Socky love for his games.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:04 pm So what's the deal about Gman anyway? Is he acting more suspicious than usual? I'm not paying much attention to him other than the fact he is starting everything with an M.

Maybe my natural charisma is too disarming this time around?

Many moons have passed since I made a game spreadsheet. I'm going to go do that and see how it feels.

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:24 pm Many moons have passed since I made a game spreadsheet. I'm going to go do that and see how it feels.

Most depressing, isn't it?

M Plus 7 and sprityo failed to vote both Day 1 and Day 2. They also both have just two posts each. That's frustrating as heck with the game on the cusp of Day 3. We had time to deal with at least one of them, but I think we're stuck dealing with their collective absence now (barring replacement).

Anyone else see anything worth noting in these votes?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:31 pm Sup I’m here and don’t really know what’s been going on.

Methinks we're getting laughed at. Hard.

Many thanks to the host for the extra 24 hours. I would have been at a party in the hollers, where cell signal is a myth.

Since this game is still a relatively short read, I’m going to give a re-read another crack now that we can interpret two more players as civvie. I’ll try to plot out the votes in order too. I still hate the fact that our polls don’t track votes in the order they were cast. It makes vote analysis less reliable and vote analysis is what I’m best at.

Many people declare their votes with either the vote tag or by mentioning that they are voting in the thread. There are enough votes, however, that did not come with some kind of clear, in-thread declaration, that I can't take my vote analysis and spreadsheeting up to the next level like I used to. I'm trying to piece Day 1's votes back together but I just can't get them all put in order. I'm just going to use tone reads and infer intent from voting history as it's collected. With four confirmed civvies down, it should clear up a few things but I'm far from a confident baddie read on anyone just yet.

My apologies. Lunch break was devoted to looking up models and prices of washers and dryers.. I re-read Day 1. I don’t want to start any crazy trains, so I’m going to hold back on too much commentary until I’ve gotten through Day 2 as well.

Nobody makes me feel good, but a few of you make me feel weird. Nutella is the closest thing I have to a civvie read right now. I think she was suffering from recency bias against Epi. She leaned his way for quite some time but Epi’s flip makes her posts about Epi seem too forward to be from a baddie.

Mafia is:

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention]
[mention]Kylemii[/mention]
[mention]S~V~S[/mention]

Man O’Day! Are you kidding me? We’re taking the non-participant option on Day 3 after two consecutive mislynches AND down four confirmed civs? He better flip mafia or else it’s game over for the civs.

reywaS wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:45 pm whats the better option, gman? I'm all eyes.

G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:36 pm Mafia is:

@Dragon D. Luffy
@Kylemii
@S~V~S

Mama Bear and Puff the Magic Dragon, splitting their votes up again? How convenient.

Sorry- no time for details before the deadline. I’ll elaborate in a little bit.

Masterful job, guys. Back after bathtime.

My contribution for the phase:




Sorry folks. Operation washer & dryer will rule my lunch break and evening. Tomorrow night is church night. These phases just end too early for me.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:41 pm Oh they were the leading vote getters I see

Made myself orange for Day 2 to signify the tie. Sorry for the lack of explanation.

[mention]speedchuck[/mention]- I’m pessimistic from a numbers standpoint because we’re one mislynch away from making it all but impossible to win. To reach that point by mislynching someone with in-thread content to base suspicions on is one thing, but we reached this point by lynching someone who was absent and never voted. Sprityo’s lynch gains us zero information because we can’t go back and understand his posts or votes through a civvie lens. It was a lazy and convenient course of action. I wish RL had afforded me more time yesterday.

Meandering about town tonight for a few errands. If I die, you’ve got my spreadsheet to evaluate. You’re welcome.

If I live, I’ll expound upon the following points:

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] hasn’t triggered my usual auto-sus for him. For that reason, I suspect him. Many of his posts are short and to the point. There are just a few in his ISO of any considerable length. That suggests a cautious approach, which seems abnormal to me.

[mention]S~V~S[/mention] is the opposite. She’s gotten a little explainy, a trait seen more often when she’s bad. She likes to shut people down by poking right back. She’s a slick, measured baddie, who can all but talk you into self-voting if you’re not careful. She’s not displaying busted SVS tone yet though. She dropped her suspicion of me too quickly and she’s come close to using her perceived expectations of others’ meta to plant seeds in the minds of others.

[mention]Kylemii[/mention] is my weakest read of the three. I have two others in mind as alternates for the third baddie but I want to see if either of them die tonight, thereby helping me along the way.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:43 pm Who's supposed to get lynched this time?

Mad money is on S~V~S and DDL.

CBob was one of the ones I was considering as baddie-possible. The lack of a flip doesn’t help but I no longer have to worry about him, which is nice.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:21 am Hrm. It's weird that it's not MYLO right now.

My thoughts revolve around the presence of some kind of indy role. There are still ten of us. If there are three mafia (my assumption for a game this size) and an indy, then that still gives us one more day. Today is critical, however, in determining if the civvies will have a chance to win. In my mind, we’re screwed if this lynch goes wrong. I’m something of an optimist in real life but I’m a tin-foiling pessimist when it comes to mafia.

My vote stays on S~V~S to keep things spread out more. I support a DDL lynch too, I just find I can infer more from votes when they’re spread out more. Runaway trains stymie analysis.

My goodness gracious, that was a beautiful save! Now I'm pissed off, so we're taking things to the next level of spreadsheet geekdom.

Standard Format Nice to put all the votes up there but tricky to analyze in its own right. Lots of mental gymnastics. Let's take it a day at a time:


Day 1: Votes are listed in alphabetical order. Do not try to infer intent from the order of presentation. This is just to show how many civvies/mystery folk were on each train. The far left column is who received votes. The rest of the cells show who voted for that person.

Day 1's chart isn't all that useful because things are a little too spread out. CBob and Nova complicate the mix with their unknown identities. Let me know what you think you see here. Lots of civvies picking up votes though.


Day 2: Four of the five people who picked up votes are guaranteed civs. Go back and read Day 2 again. Who seems all too relaxed through this guaranteed mislynch? It's unlikely all the baddies voted together, so think about who isn't colored in green and how those names being split the way they are make you feel about them.


Day 3: Same exercise. Both major trains are civvie. Who's too chill through all this? Who's rationale looks forced? Mind the vote splits. On a day when there's no risk, baddies don't have to be as careful with splitting but they also don't like bundling votes together too often.


Day 4: Based on your readings of Day 2 and Day 3, how do you interpret Day 4?


Spend a little time on this. We can still turn this thing around!

Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:16 pm G-man, that's a lot of data. I was sort of hoping you would share your conclusion from it.

Make your own conclusions and share with the class. If everyone doe it, we may find consensus and sort this thing out.

My work-life balance is a one-way tilt this week. I’m voting for DDL, eating some dinner, and heading back to the office.

Marvelous! We got one. No room for error though. I’m going to have some time tomorrow. I’ll revamp my spreadsheet and post some more screenshots. Now that we have a baddie in the mix, we can start stitching together scenarios of vote spreads and clusters. We can then read back through EOD’s and see which scenarios fall apart under scrutiny and which ones stick together.

Teammate behavior may be possible to find now, though the wording in the posts has me wondering about baddie BTSC. DDL was a specific role and aligned with the mafia, not just part of the mafia. I ran Outpost 31 with no baddie BTSC, so it’s possible something similar is going on here. I’m still going to treat it like normal mafia and assume teams for now.

I’m glad I’m not a complete dunce at this game.

More spreadsheet fun, now featuring baddie red!

OVERALL VOTES:
DAY 1 VOTES: My fresh take in analyzing Day 1 is that Luna and S~V~S are not baddie teammates. Before S~V~S voted, there was a two-vote two-way tie between Enrique and Long Con (both civs). If S~V~S and Luna were teammates, there is absolutely no reason to take a two-way tie between two civvies and make it a three-way tie between two civvies and a baddie. Unless someone steps in it royally, you don't bus a teammate on Day 1. There is no benefit to disadvantaging your team like that.

Luna voted for DDL on Day 1 and was the only vote on him. That's plausible baddie behavior. So is S~V~S diversifying the mislynch options by making it a three-way tie between Enrique, Long Con, and Luna.


DAY 2 VOTES:
DAY 3 VOTES:
DAY 4 VOTES: Luna and Sloonei were consistent in voting for reywaS D3 and D4.

DAY 5 VOTES: S~V~S and Sloonei are consistent in not voting for DDL two days in a row. Day 5 also reemphasizes (for me) that S~V~S and Luna are not baddie teammates.

Sloonei starts the train on Luna. If you are baddie teammates and your third teammate is leading the poll, you do not try to CFD on another teammate in a MYLO/LYLO scenario. You bullsuit a case on a civvie in the hopes of stealing the win. Sloonei and Luna are not teammates.

Nutella was second on the Luna train. S~V~S was third. We've already established that S~V~S and Luna cannot be teammates. The Luna train was either the baddie team's attempt at winning the game by finding a civvie to lynch instead of DDL, it was or a pack of civvies panicking over DDL's lynch being "too easy" (and at least one baddie joining the fun to try to seal the win). It's too much effort for baddies to try to engineer a tie between two baddies. What's the point in working so hard at something that's just going to delay the end of the game? Neither Nutella nor Sloonei are teammates with Luna.

If Luna is bad, her remaining teammate is not G-Man, Nutella, S~V~S, or Sloonei. If Luna is bad, then her teammate is either Speedchuck or Sabie. If Luna is civvie, then at least one of DDL's teammates may have voted for Luna.

If you suspect Luna, then you have to clear G-Man, Nutella, S~V~S, and Sloonei.

If you suspect any of G-Man, Nutella, S~V~S, or Sloonei, then you have to clear Luna.

Discuss! Please also review the spreadsheet picks and let us know what other relationships you think you can rule out.

Mentioning other players is part of the game. Here’s my breakdown on how many times DDL quoted, responded to, or mentioned the remaining living players:

G-MAN:
1) Ponders whether CBob & I have curses on Day 1.
2) Ponders if my M shenanigans have something to do with my Socky Award on Day 1.
3) Wonders why I was such a hot item on the D2 lynch poll on Night 2.
4) Wants me to elaborate after I list him as mafia.
5) Uses my gripe about lazy Sprityo train to vote for reywaS on Day 3.
6) Tries to side-step my suspicions of him on Night 3.