The Syndicate

dunya wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:08 pm @nutella I think you know what needs to be done day 1.

It starts with an L and ends with a C.

And is two letters.

Finish him.

@nutella please do not listen to this. I am Bunkerman. I live to protect you.

We each have four shots. We need to coordinate then across the game sensibly.

dunya wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:23 pm LC didnt convince me with his entrance tbh.

Good:
Epi
Alison

Bad:
Carot
LC

That literally cannot be true. My entrance was absolutely Civ-minded. I don't want us to have no protections left on Day 5. We will strictly assign players to a schedule of powers. We will schedule three of the four protects that each player ostensibly has. The fourth will be left as a "free protect" to add some unpredictability to the equation.

I would like to see nutella shoot dunya for this obvious fake analysis.

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:35 am Oh yea i was also thinking of using RNG to determine our protections

like idk the numbers but lets say arbitrarily say 10% , each bunker goes to rand.org or however eas the site, rolls between 1 and 100, if its 1 to 10 they protect nutella, otherwise save their shot. Obv different on even nights and as more of us die but u get the idea. Like, just think of some numbers that will give us good odds, i think its okay to slightly potentially lose the game on the first night if it means bigger chance to win in the end

We have to assume the aliens will try to kill nutella every night. We will non-randomly arrange protects to ensure, and insure, that she has multiple layers of protection each night. We will do this in a way that eliminates the possibility of unfortuitously picking all aliens to protect her.

Fortunately most peoples' opinions on who's bunker or alien mean dick squat. Aw, you suspect me? That's cute.

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:00 am its weird to me that literally everyone be scumreading long con and the epi person r u guys metaing or wat. cuz im not seeing how r they so obv scummy but could be wrong idk

They like to make me laugh.

protocultures wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:33 pm I had the same issue on mobile. If you flip it to landscape mode, the buttons on the left hand side show up so you should be able to iso without going to page 1.

The lack of engagement with my grand plan to repulse the alien threat makes me sad.

Either people didnt read it, read it but didnt understand it and dont want to ask questions, or they are aliens who are scared of the grand plan.

I skimmed it because it was the hugest post I've ever seen, and I figured it would be discussed at length and that I could glean the meaning as we went along, and ask questions. I feel a little intimidated to ask questions. Like, I ask a question about one part, and you'd be like "Uh, can you please read, that question is clearly answered in Section 2 (iii), Paragraph 7, Subparagraph (ii)..."

town coming together with an agreed game plan is important in this setup. Having everyone go maverick/solo/secret night actions all the time is massively anti town imo. There isnt even any real benefit to individual scum hunting.

An agreed upon plan is what I suggested, over the randomizing I was seeing discussed. Of course,

, I got put on the Naughty List for it. That's scum-hunters for ya though.

You either project town to Nutella or you dont. Beyond this, you try and figure out the best way to help town win.

That's the kicker. People can scum hunt-their eyeballs out, but nutella will follow her own ideas for the most part. She's quite individualistic.

The number of purely defensive posts is surprising to me, particularly from people with huge post counts (who i expect should know better).

If these people are going to come out with some awesome strat later on, I will sit down and shut up, but until then, should I not expect constructive posts on day 0? Is this like meme day 0 on forums?

Being constructive on Day 0 is just fine. I tend to have a pretty casual Day 0, but then again, my Day 1 isn't much better.

There's a good chance that I will come out with an awesome strat later on, historically when I have a few Days to get acclimated and more involved, is when I come up with my best stuff.

To summarise again:

Assuming Day 0 (no shoot) --> Day 1 (laser shoot) --> Night 1 (alient 1KP)

We just need Nutella to rng 3 people from the 14 to bunker save Nutella, no exceptions. These people confirm receipt of the instruction from Nutella and nobody else stacks/wastes bunker saves on Nutella.

So you want nutella to randomly pick three players to protect her. I'm down with that.

For the math, this is 1 minus (4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12) = 1 – 24/2184 = 98.9% because the only permutation where we lose laser Night 1, is if we rng 3 aliens. That is 3 bunker saves used out of a total of 40.
[If laser shoots a town on Day 1, the math changes slightly to 4/13 x 3/12 x 2/11, so we get 24/1,716, so 1.4% chance we insta lose first night. I am still okay with that. Odds get lower than 1.1% if laser shoots alien day 1. Either way, its so low, we shouldnt care about it.]

For the second part, I suggest we nominate 4 additional people to be bunker saved and identify who will save them. Nutella to nominate if town consensus cannot be found. What does this all achieve?
Without a grand plan, aliens POE into 10 bunkers plus Laser.

With this plan, aliens can ONLY POE into 6 potential players which is now also known to town.

4 of the players are "safe" due to being actually saved or proxy saved because an alien was allocated to bunker someone on a 1KP night. At this stage, we have used 7 bunker saves so far.

This leaves our pool of random bunker shots who I think should save at an average rate something between 1/2 and 1 per night per random bunker with higher weighting to bunker saving on early days to reduce chances of dying with high bunker saves remaining.

What does this result in?

We get much cleaner info on saves, which helps Nutella make more informed day shots.

Assuming about half the unallocated savers bunker into the POE, this means we get a decent shot at finding a save, AND when saved, we should be able to narrow it down to 1 to 3 people. Because there were 6 people in the POE for aliens, nobody died, and only 3 people got bunkered for example. Think how massively more helpful this is than everyone doinf their own thing and landing save where POE was 10 people. The chances of landing a save in the first place is smaller, the chance of stacking bunkers (a waste on a 1KP night), and even if you DO land a save, you now have a larger POE of potential town who got saved.

Not sure I fully follow this part. On the surface, it guarantees that the aliens will always land successful kills, because they know who is unprotected. If I understand correctly, this is desirable, as it culls the players down to a level where the Aliens will be exposed?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:11 pm I have not retained how this setup works, but I'm ready to be educated while reading. ^^

How many protects did you start with? We're allocating resources.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:24 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:13 pmHow many protects did you start with? We're allocating resources.
I think 4. Also pretty sure it's the same for everyone. If you're trying to be clever you're wasting your shot

I WAS trying to be clever. Don't worry, I have unlimited shots.

protocultures wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:22 amLong Con – Alien. Cant believe they called themselves a bunkerman instead of a bunker person. Consider myself triggered.

But... I AM a man. I identify as a man.

On a meta read without ever having played with them, I simply don’t believe someone with 13k posts would think the aliens would be trying to kill the laser every night.

There is a sizable difference between "We have to assume that..." and "I believe this will happen". Not assuming they will attack nutella each night means not protecting her each night. Surely you're not advocating that.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:06 pm I also think that nobody except Nutella should be saved, full stop. Including self saves.

We'd get picked off too quickly, and then there would be no one to protect The Laser.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:10 pm An alternative. Two top town reads protect Nutella. Less wasteful. If we could come to consensus one then that would work but then there are devious scum tactics I won’t go into.

And top three on the even nights, of course. Maybe top four.

Mac is in this game??

What a fucking rip off I want my money back

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:29 pm maybe epi is town after all and this is just the way his personality works

Love it.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:32 pm nutella has plenty of capacity to think for herself.

There is plenty of "math" in the thread, none of which is sound.

I propose this:

nutella should inform the individual before she shoots him or her. That individual should name those he or she suspects / everyone he or she doesn't. Aliens have no way of protecting themselves. This way, no bunker is caught off guard without a chance to give opinions.

Is nutella a hammer?

I think nutella has already decided who she's going to shoot.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:12 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:10 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:09 pm I think nutella has already decided who she's going to shoot.
Who
He already said nutella.

If you want the object of the action, you should say "Whom?"

(Lesson for you too, Long Con)

Thanks, that's one linguistic rule that I never mastered, or really tried. I don't need to say whom she will shoot.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:02 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:54 am
tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:35 am Oh yea i was also thinking of using RNG to determine our protections

like idk the numbers but lets say arbitrarily say 10% , each bunker goes to rand.org or however eas the site, rolls between 1 and 100, if its 1 to 10 they protect nutella, otherwise save their shot. Obv different on even nights and as more of us die but u get the idea. Like, just think of some numbers that will give us good odds, i think its okay to slightly potentially lose the game on the first night if it means bigger chance to win in the end
We have to assume the aliens will try to kill nutella every night. We will non-randomly arrange protects to ensure, and insure, that she has multiple layers of protection each night. We will do this in a way that eliminates the possibility of unfortuitously picking all aliens to protect her.
Level 1 LC = Mafia LC

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:03 pm
tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:16 am if i was an alien i would be killing bunkers every single night

it is the least risky strat to win if youre maf. like its 11v4 and you have 1.5 kills every night

like you guys think that making pre determined plans is the least risky way for town to win but i argue the opposite. you are betting it all on having correct reads on a lot of stuff and it will just be embarassing if it all flops wont it
This guy > LC

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:34 pm I hope you lose to mafia that are in my bottom tier.

You seem to like talking. How on earth can you think I'm an Alien here?

How do we know who's PoE?

I agree with Tony about Alison.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:11 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:10 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:03 pm Nutella you're not gonna actually shoot people playing their first game on site on day 1 right? Can we just get that out there?
Right.
Shoot LC then

Is this going to be every game with you?

That's why I say hey man nice shot.

Why did you pick Soneji? I thought you would go with Mac or Dizzy.

Some good work there Epi. I'm down with it.

I would say Rej is the wolf out of the bottom group.

To be fair, the man only had 9 posts, and I wasn't the most prolific poster either.

9 posts! You got him off 9 posts, nutella. That's wild.

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:56 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:23 pm To be fair, the man only had 9 posts, and I wasn't the most prolific poster either.
What's the context of this post? Why do you feel the need to talk about you?

The context:

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:20 pm Long Con
0 mention of Soneji.

...

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:23 pm 9 posts! You got him off 9 posts, nutella. That's wild.
This feels bootlicker.

Not really. I've known nutella for over a decade. I feel comfortable speaking to her like that.

Lazy of me, sorry.

Don't forget Epi is protecting you, if he's town.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:04 am
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:03 am
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:18 pm I don't understand the scumreads on LC. And I think rej's recent posts lean town.
i haven’t seen LC like... do anything though? he hasn’t solved yet as far as i can see. but i saw he said he is a slow starter so maybe this is normal for him? also what’s townish about rej? also why do i insist on asking you these questions? the world may never know
Yeah I feel like I gave LC a bit too much early credit based on a pure tone/gut read and haven't been seriously evaluating him or holding him to enough of a standard so I need to drop that townread to make him do stuff.

I'll do what I can, and I'll use my protects as cleverly as I can. Right now, I like Epi's Soneji analysis, and I agree that Tony should be put into the town category.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:17 am
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:43 pm Why Soneji? I like his reads and he's not even there.
i feel like scum just... doesnt say this directly after nut announces that she will most likely shoot soneji? like carotte would just be making herself look terrible for no reason

Good point. Town points for Carotenoid.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:23 am
protocultures wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:50 pm Agh mobile submission ate my post.

I don't like the shot on Soneji but don't have any super support for why not. Just here for the town cred post flip I guess.

The strong omgus from Epi is amusing and continues to make me believe they are an alien.
i feel like this is also not s/s with soneji for the same reason as carotte? but maybe this is a dumb way to think about it

Disagree. This post is something I could easily see as clever distancing, once Soneji is slated to die.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:26 am
protocultures wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:58 pm You can trend me down if I'm wrong on Soneji.

Trending me down because you townread epi would be unfortunate.

I would go so far as to say shoot epi and if they flip town you can shoot me next day.
yea idk this doesnt feel like someone who knows soneji is about to flip scum? like would scum!proto really think that he could sway nut into not shooting soneji. ive seen nut in spec chat and she is not the easily swayed type

Less about nutella and more about proto. proto feels like a confident player, who might just believe he could sway nutella. I don't know proto though, just new impressions.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:59 am I will add I feel extremely positive that Hally is town. She's like a shining beacon of town spark.

Yes.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:49 am Between Epignosis/Dunya/Dyslexicon there is absolutely at least one mafia and maybe literally only one.

I still like Dizzy as the bad apple. Dizzy and proto, good laser targets.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:02 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:16 pm If you have meta that says she specifically doesn’t go this hard as scum I can work with that

If it’s a broad scum in general don’t go this hard read that’s uh

Something I fundamentally disagree with
i don’t have meta on allison no. but fair point. scum can go hard too. idk im conflicted on allison

I don't see any reason why the sudden thrust of long-post-research isn't a reaction to some reasonable accusations against her.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:10 am
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:08 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:03 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:29 pm I've seen Nutella play popcorn and this is just big popcorn. She'll be fine.
This post aged well
I think rabbit's been watching I hope he's proud tbh
Let's keep doing that thing where you give me your shortlists and I tell you which one to shoot. Seems to be working well so far.

Did you tell her to shoot Soneji?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:14 am loved = moved

move with love.

ok nite nite

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:15 am Alison and Carotte being yellow probably actually means they're town and Epi and LC being yellow probably means at least one of them is mafia

I don't think that's a good conclusion. I think we're both town. Look at Epi's entrance to today, is his Soneji analysis illegitimate? Is he manipulating? I judge it to be genuine town using a D1 mafia elim for solid analysis. Also, I'm town too, bank on it and I promise no disappointment.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:16 am Epi not w/w with Dizzy or Dunya means probably LC. LC + Dunya + Rej or LC + Dizzy + Rej? Can Rej be town?

I push Dizzy for the laser, and I'm also fine with dunya and Rej as elims. For the record.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:19 am OMFG I AM BOUT TO SOLVE THE GAME

Too much LC in your head to be making this claim.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:20 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:19 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:16 am Epi not w/w with Dizzy or Dunya means probably LC. LC + Dunya + Rej or LC + Dizzy + Rej? Can Rej be town?
I push Dizzy for the laser, and I'm also fine with dunya and Rej as elims. For the record.
Intrigue

Not really. Just take me out of the equation and you will be making more sense.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:22 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:21 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:20 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:19 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:16 am Epi not w/w with Dizzy or Dunya means probably LC. LC + Dunya + Rej or LC + Dizzy + Rej? Can Rej be town?
I push Dizzy for the laser, and I'm also fine with dunya and Rej as elims. For the record.
Intrigue
Not really. Just take me out of the equation and you will be making more sense.
Yes that is why intrigue. If I take you out of my equation we have the same conclusion?

I can't imagine my presence to have any effect on your other suspicions, so yes?

fuck tho seriously I'm gone now, no more refreshes I have to go to bed

What is it about Epi's play that's unimaginable?

protocultures wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:58 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:48 am What is it about Epi's play that's unimaginable?
its so openly selfish and uncooperative in a way where it is clear that town should be cooperating to increases chances of winning.

protocultures wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:03 am "you guys do whatever you want, but I cant trust any of your plans because you might be aliens. My ONE job as a bunker is to save Nutella. I dont care that we discussed a plan to reduce wasted bunker shots on Night 1, I dont trust any of you or math or nothing. I am a bunker and I need to save Nutella. I insta lock in my save before anyone can say anything and then cast doubt on my own save to enocurage others to do the same because I might be an alien". Thats basically my TL;DR of their play so far and why i find it scummy.

I don't see it as an issue because that is the personality shtick that Epi has cultivated over the years. I fully support you yanking hard on this thread though. Good to have fresh eyes. Just don't expect him to dance.

tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:06 am Dont shoot proto nutella i am over my annoyance however im adamant that cooperation between him and I (american english would say "him and me", in british english its "him and I" fwiw. i know this from the film scott pilgrimm vs the world) is impossible and my energy is better spent elsewhere

I was taught to take out the other person. If you say "You should pick me!" then you'd say "You should pick him and me!", and saying "I am going to the slugmarket" would inform you to say "He and I are going to the slugmarket". I don't know if "him and I" is ever good. Epi is an English teacher though, maybe he'll weigh in. Never heard of the British/American divide on that one.

tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:11 pm I see nothing towny from LC they can be the next shot. I feel like they haven't put in a lot of effort, my bad if I missed it. Less effort than Tony so I would shoot LC first based off principle.

That's fair, I guess. It won't get you an Alien though.

Long Con
nutella
TonyStarkPrime
Hally
Epignosis
protocultures
tutuu
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Carotenoid
MacDougall
Alison
dunya
Rej
Dyslexicon

tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:23 pm Well alright whatever, I will no longer scream for your death. I could be right or I could be wrong.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:21 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:18 pm I don't understand the scumreads on LC. And I think rej's recent posts lean town.
Checked Rej and agree. I'll read LC again. Don't remember much, but I thought some of the early mechanics interactions were off iirc.
I do think that maybe we should kill Rej and LC before Tony. But like if Rej flips scum then I do think it looks bad on you.

W/e let's just move on

Good thing you don't have a gun.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:30 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:24 pm Long Con
nutella
TonyStarkPrime
Hally
Epignosis
protocultures
tutuu
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Carotenoid
MacDougall
Alison
dunya
Rej
Dyslexicon
LC you are another person I can't "wavelength" with so talk to me. What is with your reads on dunya and dizzy? I checked your ISO, you said dunya should be shot really early on for disagreeing with your mech strategy, and then basically never engage her, question her, push her, talk to her or anything, but bring her up as someone you'd like to see shot alonside dizzy and rej. Same with dizzy. Null interactions early on, sudden dive into suspicion - "dizzy is the bad apple" (#991) without any preamble or explanation why you suddenly found dizzy suspicious or what is it about dizzy you found suspicious. And then suddenly dizzy is the number one person you want to see dead and at the very bottom of your reads list.

You spend like the majority of your time talking with MacDougall, who is nullish on your reads list, and Hally, who's town. Why have you spent like no time constructing a case on Dizzy/Dunya and explaining why they're scum and should be shot if you're so convinced they're Alien?

Your read on them is like caro's read on me, possibly even worse since caro actually constructed a case and explanation as to why she felt my actions were scummy

I don't really have cases going. These are mostly gut feelings and my agreement/disagreement with existing cases and opinions.

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