The Syndicate

I have a very good track record in games where we vote to give someone a gun. Which this basically is. So vote to give me a gun.

End pitch and posting.

Do you know banana and Naz? Love those guys

Ok fine I’ll make one more

Optimal is for everyone to vote [n-Nanook] where n is all the players

Then nanook votes one person

Then you all give me a gun at night and I shoot it and scum dies

Rinse and repeat

K now I’m done posting

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:10 pm hally/sloonei actually always contains at least 1 wolf here

Both lock town now

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:33 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:30 pm town:
spf
tutuu
alison

town lean:
martin
nut
nook
thun maybe

scum:
sloonei

ama
Reminder that my permascum curse is only on MU.

Also, I'm kind of intimidated by this playerlist lol. 4 champs finalists and players like Nutella and Alison who I've played with and know they're good?

I was also a champs finalist but don’t worry making finale means very little in terms of how skilled you are

Ok back to not posting, everyone please remember the plan is for everyone to vote everyone except me, then I’ll vote one player

I would prefer not to shoot sloonei

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:00 am God damn it this is gonna be the dumbest read ive made in a while but i want to townread hally cuz they out spf in top town and didnt elaborate at all until asked. So like this is based off of the assumption that hally if they were mafia, would be more aware that they should probably be consistent and explain their reads and stuff, and they would be cautious about explaining all their reads except the top town one (spf), so it looked to me like a town not caring about apperance in this small instance

No this is a good read I’ll sheep it

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:31 am If @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME gives me just one nice hunt-oriented post I will give him a free town read, as long as I feel the effort was genuine.

Ok you can have one

Alison and tutu >rand town (tutu significantly >rand, would only consider her partners with Hally)

Hally also >rand town, which ties back to part of why tutu is significantly above rand town imo

I think sloon seems townie but I’ll almost certainly just sheep your reads on each other at the end of the day, unless I think you’re both mafia ofc but no reason to think that atp, so pretty content to sheep your reads on each other when/where relevant

Nutella probably slightly>rand town but not super confident

Martin seems townie

That’s where I am rn. Have some scattered miscellaneous thoughts but those are the only ones I have enough confidence in to be worth mentioning. Now I’m gonna return to not posting in an effort to retain a tiebreaker if necessary.

I’m using a post just to say that nova is hard town, that’s how confident I am in the read

Hello I’m way behind

Have we decided to give me the gun yet, and if not have we decided to give it to sloonei yet?

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:21 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:20 am Hello I’m way behind

Have we decided to give me the gun yet, and if not have we decided to give it to sloonei yet?
who's mafia?

You know I hate this question literally every time someone replies to a post of mine asking a question with “who’s mafia” instead of just answering my question

So from now on I’m going to reply to it with some version of “you motherfucka” k thx

Tutu/Martin/[one of jay/sloonei possibly both depends on how their reads on each other develop]/...maybe nutes maybe SPF—think they’re not both scum, not sure if they’re both town. Thunal seems townie but I haven’t done research so idk.

Caveat that I’m not sure how many scum teams think this way but

It’s almost always better for scum in that situation to send town unless SPF is mafia. So very good chance that Hally and SPF are aligned, and because carot was shot and flipped green, very good chance they’re both town.

Caveat that I’m not sure how many teams think this way, so it’s not like...not 100% locked in. But high likelihood imo.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:13 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:04 pm Tutu/Martin/[one of jay/sloonei possibly both depends on how their reads on each other develop]/...maybe nutes maybe SPF—think they’re not both scum, not sure if they’re both town. Thunal seems townie but I haven’t done research so idk.
That is a lot of names, nooky.

Town cores are hard sometimes

It’s a town list lol

Eh I’m not sure I can read tutu this game

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:32 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:48 pm Eh I’m not sure I can read tutu this game
I think it's going to be really hard to know, when she finally rands wolf, due to her having no wolf records on this site. I don't know what it looks like.

Yeh, it’s more that I usually read her off a combination of quantity and how often she hits her town markers within that quantity, but in post capped game in general that’s tough and this game specifically is a bit harder cause the amount of conflict she’s been involved in.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:01 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:11 pm Caveat that I’m not sure how many scum teams think this way but

It’s almost always better for scum in that situation to send town unless SPF is mafia. So very good chance that Hally and SPF are aligned, and because carot was shot and flipped green, very good chance they’re both town.

Caveat that I’m not sure how many teams think this way, so it’s not like...not 100% locked in. But high likelihood imo.
I don't understand why you think this way so I can't assume that the mafia team does too.

Carot is town and SPF is mafia -> better to send second mafia most of the time, makes sure that town dies

Carot is town and SPF is town -> better to send third town, makes sure that town dies

There’s obviously some amount of uncertainty in this cause it’s not immediately clear how many mafia will think about it this way, and there’s some room for playing suboptimally on purpose even if they do/did think about it this way

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:06 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:01 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:11 pm Caveat that I’m not sure how many scum teams think this way but

It’s almost always better for scum in that situation to send town unless SPF is mafia. So very good chance that Hally and SPF are aligned, and because carot was shot and flipped green, very good chance they’re both town.

Caveat that I’m not sure how many teams think this way, so it’s not like...not 100% locked in. But high likelihood imo.
I don't understand why you think this way so I can't assume that the mafia team does too.
Carot is town and SPF is mafia -> better to send second mafia most of the time, makes sure that town dies

Carot is town and SPF is town -> better to send third town, makes sure that town dies

There’s obviously some amount of uncertainty in this cause it’s not immediately clear how many mafia will think about it this way, and there’s some room for playing suboptimally on purpose even if they do/did think about it this way

First one a bit less weight with Hally being the person sent by mafia given she’s maybe the least likely in this game to even consider a hero shot

Still something I’m considering tho

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:15 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:06 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:01 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:11 pm Caveat that I’m not sure how many scum teams think this way but

It’s almost always better for scum in that situation to send town unless SPF is mafia. So very good chance that Hally and SPF are aligned, and because carot was shot and flipped green, very good chance they’re both town.

Caveat that I’m not sure how many teams think this way, so it’s not like...not 100% locked in. But high likelihood imo.
I don't understand why you think this way so I can't assume that the mafia team does too.
Carot is town and SPF is mafia -> better to send second mafia most of the time, makes sure that town dies

Carot is town and SPF is town -> better to send third town, makes sure that town dies

There’s obviously some amount of uncertainty in this cause it’s not immediately clear how many mafia will think about it this way, and there’s some room for playing suboptimally on purpose even if they do/did think about it this way
On Night 1 though? Wouldn't that out two mafia members immediately?

Explain to me how it would out them

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:18 pm Maybe I misunderstand. I thought you were saying that, if the group sends a town and a mafia, then the mafia would choose to send another mafia so that they could subvert the democratic process and yeet a town member that was supposed to be safe.

That is not what I was saying and is a gross misunderstanding of how the game mechanics work

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:30 pm
tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:28 pm i think its optimal for both town and mafia to each send the same person every night. lets keep sending spf and they will keep sending hally
@mafia please confirm itt that you agree to send me again. it’s better for all three of you to do it just so it’s extra clear

Roger Roger

What do I win jay

Still waiting to find out what I win

Spoiler: show

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:58 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:57 am Still waiting to find out what I win

Spoiler: show
maybe if I add a spoiler I’ll get an answer

no comprendo

This is valid reasoning and it may reflect what Nanook was referring to earlier about Hally and SPF being aligned. I'm putting this in a spoiler though because I bet he doesn't notice or click it before he has visited his notification from me quoting him with my question.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:03 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:01 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:58 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:57 am Still waiting to find out what I win

Spoiler: show
maybe if I add a spoiler I’ll get an answer

no comprendo

This is valid reasoning and it may reflect what Nanook was referring to earlier about Hally and SPF being aligned. I'm putting this in a spoiler though because I bet he doesn't notice or click it before he has visited his notification from me quoting him with my question.

I'm disappointed. This isn't the degree of narcissism I know and appreciate.

Well tbf I did see your question first, but I figured you’d see the answer I posted after that. But I didn’t snark in reply so that’s progress!

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:32 pm Blind Interactions

For those who don't already know, green blocks reflect pairings that I don't think look likely to be mafia teammates. Yellow blocks refer to pairings that I think could be; I have no good reason to say otherwise. Orange refers to a pairing that I found particularly compatible.

I only ended up with one orange, so if you want to be conservative you can just call it yellow and end up with a binary yes/no chart.

As usual I don't have dedicated notes for all of this. I did poke at a tiny bit as I went through it in my previous handful of posts. I don't want to spam the game with mass analysis. If you have questions about any pairing here, ask me. I will try to answer if I have time. I might not. If I can't answer, then dig into the interaction for yourself and see how you feel.

A few notes:

~ Nanook being an ocean of yellow is unsurprising. He has the fewest posts and hasn't done a whole lot in the way of pushing any kind of game solving. So he's compatible with everyone.

~ Long Con and Martin are the only orange in a way that kind of recalls Jack/Michelle in the Finale (Martin in particular made a few mentions of LC that struck me as a bit forced or unnecessary. I realize Jack/Michelle was wrong, but whatever -- it's orange anyway. View it for yourselves and come to your own conclusions.

~ I struggle to clearly remove a POE name or suspect from the pool with this chart as I often want to. The closest I can come is Thunal, who would be compatible per my judgments only with Nanook, SPF, and nutella (which would be a good look overall for Thunal if at least two of those three are town).

~ Most importantly about Thunal, I think he doesn't fit with Sloonei. This should have important implications for Alison's view of the game, and I look forward to hearing what she thinks about that.

~ Sloonei fits precisely with the POE and naught else. So the case against Sloonei can be described as "easy game versus not easy game". Your mileage may vary given what you think of that. Alison is in a very similar position, which makes the emerging "dichotomy" between those two especially important. They don't have to be a dichotomy, but I am kind of feeling that way.

~ For some reason I couldn't find it within myself to clear nutella on numerous interactions even when she had a lot to say about people. I don't know what to make of that. I might not make anything of it. She covers a lot of ground in her solving style a la the rabbits of the world. The same can be said to a lesser degree for Hally.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Most important takeaways for me: Thunal might be the best look if anyone is, and her relationship with Sloonei and Alison might be good starting points from which a coherent view of the game can be constructed.

Having me all yellow is super lazy dude

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:51 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:44 pmHaving me all yellow is super lazy dude
Yeah... at the very least, three posts could be said to have wolf equity with Sloonei:

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:12 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:10 pm hally/sloonei actually always contains at least 1 wolf here
Both lock town now

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:23 am
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:21 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:20 am Hello I’m way behind

Have we decided to give me the gun yet, and if not have we decided to give it to sloonei yet?
who's mafia?
You know I hate this question literally every time someone replies to a post of mine asking a question with “who’s mafia” instead of just answering my question

So from now on I’m going to reply to it with some version of “you motherfucka” k thx

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:14 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:13 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:04 pm Tutu/Martin/[one of jay/sloonei possibly both depends on how their reads on each other develop]/...maybe nutes maybe SPF—think they’re not both scum, not sure if they’re both town. Thunal seems townie but I haven’t done research so idk.
That is a lot of names, nooky.
Town cores are hard sometimes
Not strong I know. Other than these, I do see what JJJ means with all the yellow. Your interactions are lean, there's not much there to connect with other players.

I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:06 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:04 pm I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum
why

What do you mean why

When are our interactions ever what teammates look like

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:14 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:11 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:06 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:04 pm I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum
why
What do you mean why

When are our interactions ever what teammates look like
It's not within nutella's scum range to fake the argument with nanook in Treehouse chat. If I am wrong on this you can keelhaul me postgame but I don't think I am. She just doesn't go that far as mafia.

(It's probably within nanook's scum range, he's willing to go a lot further than her. But it's not within nutella's, so they can't be wolf buddies.)

I basically agree with this, yeah

Posssibly in Nutella’s range in a m/t argument, it isn’t within her range to argue like that with a partner. Jay should know this imo.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:04 pm BUN TO HEAD GO

MARTINGG99
NUTELLA
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

Town
Idk
Town I guess

Nutella/jay team confirmed

I have the same reaction to reading jay’s gth and immediately preceding gth stuff that trump does being read CNN headlines

Fake, fake, this is all fake

I don’t think I’ve asked you to read my mind

The thread/QT, maybe, not my mind tho

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:31 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:24 pm I don’t think I’ve asked you to read my mind

The thread/QT, maybe, not my mind tho
I agree that via the QT, you don't fit as a mafia teammate with nutella.

Otherwise, you're asking me to read your mind. I can only get so far with "I understand that Nanook plays this way and it doesn't inherently make him mafia".

It doesn't make you town either. If there's something you've done that you believe is town-indicative, or that you think I should view as town-indicative, then please highlight it. I'm telling you right now that I am not there, and I don't really care whether you trust me.

How is that at all asking you to read my mind

My reads are out there

The NK, the grasslands choice, my snap nova read, these are all things that combined should lead you to think I’m town. I have 34 posts in thread and like 10 or something in the QT. That *should* be enough to get you past “null so default to a scum read” territory on me, combined with NK and grassland choices it *should* be enough to give you more than zero changed to a begrudging one “not teammate” read.

Is there a reason you aren’t 100% locked in this game or that I should otherwise be considering here? Cause I expect normal townJay to default to me being town when I’m doing things like making reads and getting in, paraphrasing you, “meaningless arguments.” I do not expect jay to go “meh idk he’s nanook mafia I guess?”

Pretty sure jay can take the temperature of a thread regardless of his alignment

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:26 pm @everyone - here's a question that might not make sense but that i consider important to the gamestate right now:

how confident do you feel about your reads right now? how much faith do you have that your assessment of the gamestate is correct?

88+ % in my reads. I’m only putting confident reads into the thread this game.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:57 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:56 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:26 pm @everyone - here's a question that might not make sense but that i consider important to the gamestate right now:

how confident do you feel about your reads right now? how much faith do you have that your assessment of the gamestate is correct?
88+ % in my reads. I’m only putting confident reads into the thread this game.
Nanook what is my alignment?

Currently thinking whatever the opposite of jay’s is. I’m not very good at reading you independently so

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:05 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:56 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:26 pm @everyone - here's a question that might not make sense but that i consider important to the gamestate right now:

how confident do you feel about your reads right now? how much faith do you have that your assessment of the gamestate is correct?
88+ % in my reads. I’m only putting confident reads into the thread this game.
what are your confident reads again?

Martin town, thun town, Hally/SPF likely aligned and >rand town, Nutella probably town.

I wanna say tutu is town too but idk man the lack of volume makes me much less confident there than I normally am

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:42 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:20 am
Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:05 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:56 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:26 pm @everyone - here's a question that might not make sense but that i consider important to the gamestate right now:

how confident do you feel about your reads right now? how much faith do you have that your assessment of the gamestate is correct?
88+ % in my reads. I’m only putting confident reads into the thread this game.
what are your confident reads again?
Martin town, thun town, Hally/SPF likely aligned and >rand town, Nutella probably town.

I wanna say tutu is town too but idk man the lack of volume makes me much less confident there than I normally am
why is martin town? also i do feel like tutuu has dropped off this day yea

Seems the same as last time I saw him

I also meant more the volume drop off inherent in a post cap game rather than that tutu had particularly dropped off today specifically. Although I suppose she has a bit, my difficulty reading her this game is more about her not posting 200+ times a day lol

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:55 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:45 am
Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:42 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:20 am
Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:05 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:56 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:26 pm @everyone - here's a question that might not make sense but that i consider important to the gamestate right now:

how confident do you feel about your reads right now? how much faith do you have that your assessment of the gamestate is correct?
88+ % in my reads. I’m only putting confident reads into the thread this game.
what are your confident reads again?
Martin town, thun town, Hally/SPF likely aligned and >rand town, Nutella probably town.

I wanna say tutu is town too but idk man the lack of volume makes me much less confident there than I normally am
why is martin town? also i do feel like tutuu has dropped off this day yea
Seems the same as last time I saw him
what do you mean, last time?

The last time I played with him

Upick I think, not 100% sure which game it was

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:57 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:56 am
Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:55 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:45 am
Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:42 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:20 am
Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:05 am
what are your confident reads again?
Martin town, thun town, Hally/SPF likely aligned and >rand town, Nutella probably town.

I wanna say tutu is town too but idk man the lack of volume makes me much less confident there than I normally am
why is martin town? also i do feel like tutuu has dropped off this day yea
Seems the same as last time I saw him
what do you mean, last time?
The last time I played with him

Upick I think, not 100% sure which game it was
oh, on here?

Yeh. 99% sure it was upick 2

FTL probably. Not sure what else

I should’ve retired after take me out at the ballgame tbh

[VOTE: nutella and jay] aubergine

And [VOTE: LC] aubergine

Now back to work

Hi am I clear yet

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:58 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:55 pm Hi am I clear yet
not even close

Oh ok

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:35 pm And [VOTE: LC] aubergine

How about now ?

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