The Syndicate

I don't really take issue with 6 potential vig shots as they had a low chance of hitting. It's just that Nutella and I both got lucky with ours, and leetic did not. Plus, since anyone could participate, it was kind of up to the wolfteams and town how much they wanted to try winning the vig shots. One SK, one town and one wolf winning the shots is pretty funny, actually.

I do agree that I was PoE'd because of balance mech, but I did try to use exactly that argument to get myself out of it, so I can't really say it was unfair. It almost worked, too. And also things mightve ended differently if I'd remembered to vote leetic in the poll (I legit forgot to do it), but tbh I think they earned their win, fair and square, and against all odds. They probably had the toughest role in the game to maneuver (and probably the other 3ps had the next hardest wincon).

I was genuinely trying to solve for the landlord team and any potential serial killers, but I did also have to push agenda on top of that. My early game was true scumhunting, contrary to what it may have seemed, and my late game was much more agenda'd after Rico and Lemon flipped, and I knew I had to identify the landlord but avoid flipping them until Fx.

Overall, I had a lot of fun, and the playerlist was awesome! Hosts did a phenomenal job with the roles, mechanics, events, etc.

And thanks hosts for an awesome game!

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:33 pm The fact that I did not achieve my win condition means I’ll need to sign up for more games in order to be eligible for next year’s GoC.

Same for me, and looking forward to the next game here! Everyone here was formidable and worked hard toward their wincons (and if I ever said otherwise, it's because I was a wolf lol, I appreciate all of you even if I had to push you or thought you were a landlord)

Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:31 pm Nah, iz fine.

GGs all around.

Congrats, leetic! Well earned, take joy in it.

Amazing performance, WWA, thanks for playing to bring it for us, against literally all odds, till the very last minute. I heavily enjoyed the teamwork, Arbiters were respected and respectable throughout and I take some final pride in that alone.

Thank you hosts for the game, real shame about the game proving a soft lock for wolves, but I'm certain you've tried your best and weathered the worst.

It was a pleasure wolfing with you! We had a great team

S~V~S wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:31 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:26 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:24 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:23 pm Also, I attempted to kill WWA N6 lol. LC was my N2 target
Why didn't I die? Kill bounced off me?
I have no clue. If nutella tried to redirect it, that would be the answer.
She won something in one of the night poll events; it gave her a 50% survival chance if NKed, and she won the roll.

Oh, it actually worked

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:31 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:28 pm Also, I almost killed leetic a few nights ago but swapped to Long Con instead
Interesting how that mightve turned out
I self-protected N5, so it wouldn't have mattered.

Just as well, then xD

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:30 pm (My win condition was for one of Long Con or Michelle to survive)

Oh, rough that Michelle died so early

we strongmanned her lol

Also, I almost killed leetic a few nights ago but swapped to Long Con instead
Interesting how that mightve turned out

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:24 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:22 pm Leetic winning is hugely deserved.

Biggest disappointment for me: I vigged Wilgy N5. He only survived due to a randomized posthumous nanook ability
I'm also disappointed I didn't push wind harder to go over radishes, but ah well. The wilgy mechanical fluke was more frustrating to find out

I gotta admit that I legit thought Alison was a wolf from the other team from N0 lol
You as well, because I genuinely misinterpreted your post about falcon for who knows what reason
I was in another game at the same time and managed to misread my rolecard in that game, causing absolutely massive thread confusion there
My head was definitely not screwed on straight xD

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:23 pm Also, I attempted to kill WWA N6 lol. LC was my N2 target

Why didn't I die? Kill bounced off me?

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:23 pm Wow, super-impressive leetic!!! Congrats to you AND WWA for a very well-played game. And leetic with the unforeseen handicap of no kills!

Poor delta tbh, he was kinda doomed

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:22 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:20 pm Arbiters had an odd-night kill btw
Yeah, I had figured out as much, which is why I knew it had to be you and not Delta. I only said otherwise in thread to pass the responsibility of the Epi kill

That makes sense lol

S~V~S wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:22 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:18 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:16 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:15 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:13 pm IJFESEWIOARJHEFSAFIJODWBAFDWIUf NO NO NO NONO NO
You still voted the right person. I was just an entirely separate threat; )
Very good play, I couldn't pinpoint you as SK xD I considered that the mafia puppet in East meant there was an extra 3p in West but the extra kills had stopped so I scrapped the idea lmao. Well done!
I could only kill even nights, and in fact the only people I successfully managed to kill were Dyslexicon and Epignosis (though I may or may not have killed nutella by accident). The rest was pure endurance
Actually, WWA also killed Epi last night and Nook killed Dizzy the same time you did.

So absolutely no one suspected you were there!

Oh, so I was right about Nook, for the wrong reasons lmao

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:19 pm Best indie or whatever for the awards next time please.

Yeah I second this

Arbiters had an odd-night kill btw

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:18 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:16 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:15 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:13 pm IJFESEWIOARJHEFSAFIJODWBAFDWIUf NO NO NO NONO NO
You still voted the right person. I was just an entirely separate threat; )
Very good play, I couldn't pinpoint you as SK xD I considered that the mafia puppet in East meant there was an extra 3p in West but the extra kills had stopped so I scrapped the idea lmao. Well done!
I could only kill even nights, and in fact the only people I successfully managed to kill were Dyslexicon and Epignosis (though I may or may not have killed nutella by accident). The rest was pure endurance

Oh what lmao
I saw Nanook on Dizzy the night he died and thought he mightve killed. And I also killed Epi last night so I guess we overlapped lol, I roleblocked him because I suspected he was a bus driver.

Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:16 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:15 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:13 pm IJFESEWIOARJHEFSAFIJODWBAFDWIUf NO NO NO NONO NO
You still voted the right person. I was just an entirely separate threat; )
i am but a court jester to the hosts watching me pick which evil gets to win

Can you imagine if you'd just left leetic and me to crossvote and let it rand lol

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:16 pm Still, well played WWA. That was a really clean wolf game in terms of effort, tone, and interactions. In fact, if I didn't have certain mechanical information I may have been convinced to vote Delta.

It's gonna be my only clean wolf game of the year, as it traditionally goes xD

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:15 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:13 pm IJFESEWIOARJHEFSAFIJODWBAFDWIUf NO NO NO NONO NO
You still voted the right person. I was just an entirely separate threat; )

Very good play, I couldn't pinpoint you as SK xD I considered that the mafia puppet in East meant there was an extra 3p in West but the extra kills had stopped so I scrapped the idea lmao. Well done!

Aaaaaaaaa I was wondering why leetic had vanished when Delta and I were still talking

Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:59 pm I'm terrified of the prospect that I've thrown this game

and I feel like I already have but

aaaaaaaaaaa

Eh I'd never call it a game throw imo

Anyway I appreciate you both (and everyone else in this game tbh)
It's been fun, no hard feelings

If I get mislunched with the incorrect solve, then
Welp, time to retire? Lmao

Tbh I'd rather get mislunched with the correct solve than incorrectly hammer the townie between you
And that makes me feel very weird

But also idk because I'm trying to convince MYSELF that I'm making the right vote
And it feels like wherever I vote it's gonna magically be wrong regardless because I do NOT have a good success streak in LyLo

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:54 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:53 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:50 pm This is definitely nerve-wracking, and I know if I'm wrong I'm gonna be yelled at by everyone in the postgame. Nevertheless, I must make a decision, so [VOTE: WindwardAway] aubergine. Ultimately, it's just Delta's roleblock that I simply cannot get past. Further, Delta's play here is typical of townies that wolves prefer to keep around for endgame. It's nervewracking, but I want to give WWA one last chance to sway me.
I'm not going to convince you much on Delta if I don't think Delta is wolfing, though
If you're that certain, why haven't you voted yet?

Because LyLo is terrifying and my generally crippling inability to make decisions is way worse in LyLo than it is any other time lol

I completely agree with leetic that Delta seems like too easy of a solution, but at the same time it makes it easy for a wolf to feign indecision for that reason. So I'm voting leetic.

[VOTE: leetic] aubergine

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:50 pm This is definitely nerve-wracking, and I know if I'm wrong I'm gonna be yelled at by everyone in the postgame. Nevertheless, I must make a decision, so [VOTE: WindwardAway] aubergine. Ultimately, it's just Delta's roleblock that I simply cannot get past. Further, Delta's play here is typical of townies that wolves prefer to keep around for endgame. It's nervewracking, but I want to give WWA one last chance to sway me.

I'm not going to convince you much on Delta if I don't think Delta is wolfing, though

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:46 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:45 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:40 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:39 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:07 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:49 pm Yesss I made it back for EoD! Gonna look at some stuff but I'm open to realtiming as well.
Which direction would you say you're leaning in at the moment?
Leaning back toward thinking it's you tbh
It's a combination of a couple factors. Quite a bit of it is actually more like, "I don't think Delta would do this as a wolf", though, which admittedly is not reasoning against you so much as it is reasoning for Delta being town.
What specific things do you think Delta wouldn't do as wolf? Do you have a lot of meta on them?
I've only ever seen Delta as town and 3p, a handful of games including mashes which are probably not the strongest on meta.
One thing I don't think Delta would do as a wolf, or more generally that I don't think A Wolf would do, is float around in the thread so late in the game without that urgency to look like they're solving. I said this earlier but it's still on my mind. A wolf before the Wilgy flip would want to solve the other wolf team, and a wolf today would want to un-PoE themselves by looking productive. I feel pretty bad in saying this but I really do not get the impression Delta is attempting to look productive at all They skipped or procrastinating doing a lot of the analysis work they said they'd do earlier and they didn't really seem like they felt the need to make up for it. I mean, they were just ok with it like oh well it didn't get done, time to move on to the next thing. And I rarely see that from wolves.
I mean, that depends on the player doesn't it? I've seen wolves like NANOOK who slanked to endgame

Right

Idk, maybe I'm falsely ascribing an assumption to Delta? But with the Nanook example, I don't think I've ever seen him promise to do solving work and then not do it. He would just... not promise anything in the first place. I just mean that wolves tend to be more conscious of what might get them read as disingenuous.

Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:42 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:34 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:15 pm The main thing I was after from a w!Leetic game is seeing if they could replicate their usual town game of getting the ball rolling, since I know that was an issue for them D1 where they were shading a lot of content being posted N0. That game.. did kinda give me the idea that they can. I dont think they're a massively polarised player regardless but iirc they are getting back into forum mafia fairly recently so I do think there would be some sort of rust there. Might come back to bite me, especially since my early game was v heavy on w!Leetic, but overall I think how they approached the Arbiters feels less pairing than how WWA had

@WindwardAway you're around for the last hour, right? I've got a vote down on you, just. Level with me and talk for a bit, if you're town convince me I'm wrong here
As I said earlier when Epi cased me, I don't have a counterargument for my interactions with the Arbiters. I obviously had interactions with and pinged them to get their thoughts, and in fact you would see even more of me pinging Lemonfairy in the East thread (because she kept dumping her readlist and then disappearing almost immediately after). I will not deny that I'd ping a partner to engage with me in the thread if I felt like it.

What I can say, though, is that my play leading up to today doesn't line up with the optimal wolf strategy in my position. I'm the only one left in East thread, mechanical balance is very obviously pointing against me, and the only player who believed we should completely disregard the number of wolves per Facility died last night, which would've had to have been my kill if I'm the last wolf. Additionally it would've been in my interest to leave Davos alive until endgame if I thought it didn't actually pose a threat but wanted an easy cop-out, and/or to leave Wilgy alive (who was very obviously the landlord from my pov) and team up with him on yeeting someone in the West yesterday in the hopes I could instead get Wilgy yeeted today — because everyone thought Wilgy was more likely to flip wolf than I was.

Of course all of what I say here is up to anyone to decide if they believe it, because I can't prove whether I would've done these things or not. But I've been aware that I've been in the PoE for days, and i tried to clear my slot so that the rest of you could solve around it and remember my legacy by unvoting at the end of the day when Davos ended up flipping.
At what point do you consider things endgame, Davos died right before Wilgy ?_? eh

I raised the point of 'why are you offering to die' earlier on in the game because I think a wolf does need to show that kind of nonchalance around dying especially when being corner in by POE.

Epi also trusted both of you, and had been far more engaged than I was. He would've done far better here than what I think I'm doing now. That's part of what I attribute his kill to, rather than his views on things. Because he townread both of you and wouldve had a blank slate here regardless.

Fuck. I really dont know lmao

Endgame I think was basically triggered by us yeeting Davos. If we hadn't done that and we yeeted someone who was town, we would maybe unwittingly be in endgame depending on how Davos counted. Or I guess we could've yeeted Wilgy too. But I meant kind of generally, one Arbiter and one landlord is sort of endgaming already for the wolf teams. So there would be a lot of planning ahead I think.

Correction, Epi would've had a blank slate if it were exactly leetic/me here in LyLo with him. He would've had to force his slate to clear if the remaining players were you and one of leetic+me because it would challenge his established reads, but there's always a bias there from before.
.

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:40 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:39 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:07 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:49 pm Yesss I made it back for EoD! Gonna look at some stuff but I'm open to realtiming as well.
Which direction would you say you're leaning in at the moment?
Leaning back toward thinking it's you tbh
It's a combination of a couple factors. Quite a bit of it is actually more like, "I don't think Delta would do this as a wolf", though, which admittedly is not reasoning against you so much as it is reasoning for Delta being town.
What specific things do you think Delta wouldn't do as wolf? Do you have a lot of meta on them?

I've only ever seen Delta as town and 3p, a handful of games including mashes which are probably not the strongest on meta.
One thing I don't think Delta would do as a wolf, or more generally that I don't think A Wolf would do, is float around in the thread so late in the game without that urgency to look like they're solving. I said this earlier but it's still on my mind. A wolf before the Wilgy flip would want to solve the other wolf team, and a wolf today would want to un-PoE themselves by looking productive. I feel pretty bad in saying this but I really do not get the impression Delta is attempting to look productive at all

They skipped or procrastinating doing a lot of the analysis work they said they'd do earlier and they didn't really seem like they felt the need to make up for it. I mean, they were just ok with it like oh well it didn't get done, time to move on to the next thing. And I rarely see that from wolves.

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:37 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:36 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:21 pm I waited a little because I wanted to see how WWA would react to Delta's vote. Not responding in eight minutes is... a decision I guess. Watch them respond as I post this
I'm typing on my phone, I thought it would take less than 8 minutes but apparently not what's the pressure, anyway? I don't think I need to rush to react to it.
Well, it's less than 25 minutes to EoD, so we don't have much time

Yeah I know but I want to respond to things
And I also have some conflicting thoughts that ive been trying to sort out that are bugging the hell out of me

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:07 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:49 pm Yesss I made it back for EoD! Gonna look at some stuff but I'm open to realtiming as well.
Which direction would you say you're leaning in at the moment?

Leaning back toward thinking it's you tbh
It's a combination of a couple factors. Quite a bit of it is actually more like, "I don't think Delta would do this as a wolf", though, which admittedly is not reasoning against you so much as it is reasoning for Delta being town.

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:21 pm I waited a little because I wanted to see how WWA would react to Delta's vote. Not responding in eight minutes is... a decision I guess. Watch them respond as I post this

I'm typing on my phone, I thought it would take less than 8 minutes but apparently not

what's the pressure, anyway? I don't think I need to rush to react to it.

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:34 pm Come on @WindwardAway. Where the hell are you?

Replying to Delta lol

Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:15 pm The main thing I was after from a w!Leetic game is seeing if they could replicate their usual town game of getting the ball rolling, since I know that was an issue for them D1 where they were shading a lot of content being posted N0. That game.. did kinda give me the idea that they can. I dont think they're a massively polarised player regardless but iirc they are getting back into forum mafia fairly recently so I do think there would be some sort of rust there. Might come back to bite me, especially since my early game was v heavy on w!Leetic, but overall I think how they approached the Arbiters feels less pairing than how WWA had

@WindwardAway you're around for the last hour, right? I've got a vote down on you, just. Level with me and talk for a bit, if you're town convince me I'm wrong here

As I said earlier when Epi cased me, I don't have a counterargument for my interactions with the Arbiters. I obviously had interactions with and pinged them to get their thoughts, and in fact you would see even more of me pinging Lemonfairy in the East thread (because she kept dumping her readlist and then disappearing almost immediately after). I will not deny that I'd ping a partner to engage with me in the thread if I felt like it.

What I can say, though, is that my play leading up to today doesn't line up with the optimal wolf strategy in my position. I'm the only one left in East thread, mechanical balance is very obviously pointing against me, and the only player who believed we should completely disregard the number of wolves per Facility died last night, which would've had to have been my kill if I'm the last wolf. Additionally it would've been in my interest to leave Davos alive until endgame if I thought it didn't actually pose a threat but wanted an easy cop-out, and/or to leave Wilgy alive (who was very obviously the landlord from my pov) and team up with him on yeeting someone in the West yesterday in the hopes I could instead get Wilgy yeeted today — because everyone thought Wilgy was more likely to flip wolf than I was.

Of course all of what I say here is up to anyone to decide if they believe it, because I can't prove whether I would've done these things or not. But I've been aware that I've been in the PoE for days, and i tried to clear my slot so that the rest of you could solve around it and remember my legacy by unvoting at the end of the day when Davos ended up flipping.

Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:55 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:58 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:53 pm Yeah, this is bad. "If Davos flips town [...] one of these names is mafia."
Because mafia would want a day wasted.
My point is, we CAN get the mafia that way, but we have to take the risk.
It's fine though, I'll flip today.

Legacy is sig and Epi are town, I believe mafia are within Wilgy/Delta/leetic and Davos if it's a separate slot, less likely Delta than the others.

Thanks for a great game, and I hope you guys pull through
I keep coming back to this because it's like
It was so close to deadline, you had the extra vote on you, you didnt self pres etc so its like
I dont know what to make of it because when I say you towntold hard, I mean this

I dunno it's such a trivial thing to be weighing on my mind but it's still like
eh

It's stuck with me a lil I guess

I need to double check something though since you had the extra vote on you from the event and I cant remember if it's something Davos took part in or not

As I said before, and to disagree with what Epi said about it, I thought if the wagons were close between Davos and me and there was going to be resistance to flipping them, my flip would be more informative. Yes, it was risky, but look where we are now. The thread still hasn't seen my flip, so you can't know that I'm town. If I had flipped on that day instead of Davos, you'd see me flip town and then you'd have to think about why I was so certain that Davos was a key information flip. Not only did it give us info on the landlords (and ultimately, Wilgy being Davos's puppetmaster), but I also pointed out that there had to be a wolf voting Davos, definitely to get themselves out of the immediate PoE but likely also to distance from the slot. And I was right, Wilgy was the wolf there. I also said that there could be a second wolf in leetic, that was not my immediate thought going into yesterday or even going out of yesterday, but I revisited it today because it came into question again when I was reviewing the lead-up to the Davos yeet.

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 2:18 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:45 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:42 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:39 pm Actually uhhh 360 no scope [VOTE: windwardaway] aubergine

I just got bored enough to finally go back to reading some east facility isos and I feel better about wilgy and worse about wind again

Think wilgy posts dont quite make sense with either team but wind fits as landlord (and radish could still be the arbiter)

Wilgy did basically just never interact with brad yeah but idk just a vibe that i could easily see him as just uninformed while i could see your brad comments as a light bus
Read Brad's response to me, though
He didn't even reply directly to me and just went like, oh man, I thought you were town as soon as I voted him
You are the only non-flipped (non-me) name in his town list and I think it's decently likely he included his teammate actually. Put you second. I mean either way that gets read is just gonna be confbiased but I don't see why his response to you can't be a teammate interaction

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 8:14 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 8:12 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 8:07 pm i feel decently confident it's just wilgy and radishes
What makes you think WWA is least likely? I think it's obvious they aren't an arbiter but nothing I've seen clears them from being a landlord
Wind is possible, I just think she's been the towniest. I did scumread her at the beginning of the game in her back and forth with Alison, so it's in the back of my mind that it's possible she bounced back from that and has been fooling me since
Here are nutella's posts on WWA's activity in the previous thread I could find. The idea that WWA was paired with Brad turned out to be false, but there's still the other point, but it's not elaborated much so I'm not sure how much I can get from it

You can actually find a lot of Nutella's case on me in the N0 thread, as well as my (erroneous) case on her. In the East thread I dropped my push on her entirely cause it was pointed out to me that I misattributed one of her posts as directed toward me when it was in fact not directed toward anyone in particular. I did not, however, drop my push on Alison, and because Alison did nothing to defend herself when she was wagoned and didn't make much of an appearance when Brad was wagoned, my push there shifted to pushing her as partnered with Brad after his flip. Nutella maintained that Alison was town, dropped her scumread on me, and didn't pick it up again until in this thread.

Idk if this helps at all.

Yesss I made it back for EoD! Gonna look at some stuff but I'm open to realtiming as well.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:10 pm The only players who'd kill Nutella are Epi/Leetic. Leetic has been pretty much the most vocal on both chain yeeting WWA and I, and that Davos should be ignored.

Davos - Leetic aligned. Leetic keeps suggesting we take alternative routes to solving this and keeps treating this slot with confidence that it can be solved this way.

Delta - would be incriminated, much more likely to make a kill on west that removes detractors.

Epi - COULD make the kill, but killing Nutella and then not focusing on WWA doesn't make sense. W Epi could in fact choose to not take the path of least resistance, but I probably just lose to that. (also took the lingerie, I wanted that.)

Leetic - WOULD have made the kill. Went from suspecting MR as remaining arbiter, to voting me in contrary to suspicion on MR, and only really moving back to MR on the justification of self voting. Nutella and MR both were the east side players that were vocal on that the PoE being east was incorrect. Leetic's play keeps us constrained to the East PoE and has consistently ignored/minimized Davos. (also they grabbed the weapon option provided today, which is probably minor but i don't like it anyways.)

Sig - Has no reason to make the kill. Was already advocating suspicion on both threads, so hitting Nutella doesn't really advance that at all and removes someone who never really advocated against them.

WWA - would be incriminated, can still be wolf but didn't make the Nutella kill.

Went back to actually look at this, and yeah, leetic is right, Wilgy did a very elaborate OMGUS. He voted leetic pretty much right after leetic said Wilgy and I had to be the last wolves and made this post.

I mean, I do think he would've been likely to reconsider his reads today, but he would not necessarily have taken the angle that I'm more likely to be a wolf because of the thread split. And whichever of you two is a wolf, likely knew he'd be harder to convince to vote me just on that premise.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:59 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:13 pm Look, in theory (a very questionable theory) we should just shoot into the East and have a 50% chance of hitting correctly.

But if we hit a town (and I can't help but feel we will) then the survivors need to abandon the idea of wolves only being there.
This is what I'm talking about playing against the hosts.

This is a gamblers fallacy.

Maybe they split shit up evenly.

Maybe they didn't.

You don't know.

Unless you do know.

Fuck the camps and get to work on who is bad.

Actually, I think this is probably why Epi got killed last night.
He never focused on whether the wolves would be evenly split between the threads, over who he thought was actually wolfiest.

Im looking through some stuff while I have a couple minutes free

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:44 am
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:35 am
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:12 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:12 pm
wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm falcon45ca - posts - Stanley Yelnats IV (Mafia)

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm Epignosis - posts
sig - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm leetic - posts
nutella - posts
WindwardAway - posts
( )

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm TonyStarkPrime - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm DarlingMonroe - posts
Delta - posts
Dyslexicon - posts
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - posts
Lemonfairy - posts
Cape90 - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm DrWilgy - posts
Long Con - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm Master Radishes - posts
Sloonei - posts

Next come the smiley posts, and while I probably should go over them I still really don't want to. However, this appears to be Ricochet's list of players based on falcon interactions (which we know to be entirely faked) so that is something a lot more straightforward, and sure I'll talk about WWA here too since I haven't talked about this post before. But first, Delta is in the same middle category as Lemonfairy, which is the largest grouping to boot. (For some reason, TSP gets their own category.) Windward is in a higher category, and if Ricochet wanted to put their partners in different categories it would point to Windward, but that's not something I would hold to any degree of certainty. Interestingly, the bottom two categories are free of any of Ricochet's partners; this does not appear to be typical of them (remember that they put falcon in the second to bottom category D1) so it may suggest that the arbiters were extremely wary of bussing after falcon's death.
I would like to return to this point. Remember how Lemonfairy never brought up their supposed suspicion on Delta again after falcon died? Or how despite pushing Delta quite a few times D3 Ricochet only put them in the middling category? I can easily see this being a shift in the wolves' strategy after their first domino fell.
I'll address a couple of potential counterarguments for Ricochet. Yes, they had a restriction (or were at least faking one) that made it difficult to communicate, and their push on Delta was mainly based on Delta potentially being pyxxy's partner. However, Ricochet knew who the arbiters were and could make the list anything they wanted. Furthermore, the smiley restriction would make people less likely to question where they put people, and it's not like you can't easily argue that Delta's falcon interactions are less than impressive. If Ricochet wanted to continue the push on Delta, they very easily could have.

Honestly, Rico posting in emojis kind of secured that people would not look too closely at his posts more than once

so he could've said anything at all, to or about a partner, and I don't think it would be scrutinized as highly as it would on a day where he actually wrote with words and not emojis.

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:15 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 5:56 pm band

smoky smoky smoky

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm Delta - posts
falcon45ca - posts - Stanley Yelnats IV (Mafia)

Delta wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 3:27 pm
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 9:48 am
Delta wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 9:39 am
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 8:06 am I'd beg people to get off falcon but my thoughts on falcon are confusing and jumbled and I don't want to hurt town by pulling votes off a wolf if I'm wrong ugh

That said I'm rarely wrong on falcon. But Caitlin got me doubting myself...
What got you to your v!Falcon read to begin with?

I had something similar to this yesterday with people pushing Porscha ;_; so at least let's run through why you townread him to begin with and work from there? If you're rarely wrong on him, walk me through how you read him to begin with?

\o/
I read falcon entirely off vibes and D1 I hard town read how he was vibing lol
ah, got it
shrug

Delta wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:43 pm of our thread, I feel most confident in LC/Abbi/Sloonei/Ricochet town, Epi/Leetic/TSP to a slightly lesser extent. Leaves question marks around Falcon/Sig. if there's town in either would go back and look at those I'm not as confident.

From the other side of the thread, I think WWA/DrWilgy/MR/Nutella have all seemed fine to me, nothing sure due to being first day back w both threads but that's my gut read for the opposing thread. Off of pure gut read I dont really think DM's reactions today feel wolfy, more in line with what I've skimmed from town games, but without seeing other thread there's only so much I can say on that. The rest have kinda just been white noise, Cape slight town ping but nothing huge.

[VOTE: Falcon] aubergine

I'm more comfortable voting within my facility today, as I mentioned earlier, so \o/
glgl o/
burp

wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 8:02 pm member of the Arbiters of the Rose Empire
burger burger
Ricochet's post on Delta. I removed the colons from the smileys in case it would make the post any more readable. I still got nothing.

On a side note, it's extremely funny to read the emojis as words xD

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:31 am
Delta wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 7:48 pm davos' vote popped up on lemonfairy, dont know if that was there before ?_?
This is Delta's only mention of Lemonfairy D3. Delta did express an interest in Davos in their opener, so it's not like this post came out of nowhere. But Lemonfairy was being voted by (at least) NANOOK and Dyslexicon at the time, so it is a little interesting that they had no further comment on the wagon. And as I said before, Lemonfairy's absence from the post where they vote falcon is noticeable.

Delta wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:47 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:46 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 5:22 pm I have to close in an hour. Will try to finish a scan of the Darling wagoners.

Lemon wagoners probably not worth pursuing. And, in just two lines, there's nothing good looking left in there. I recall no serious push(es) from Nanook - just an instavote on sabi, due to lingering post-wolfflip, and then a tag vote right after Dizzy back and forth. Davos doesn't sound like making any trustworthy contribution all game and just plants votes. I trusted Scrappy more in West, I'd come back to whether Davos can be trusted, but not this phase, I suppose.
Chooses to basically ignore the Lemon wagon, interesting. I would not be surprised if there was at least one Arbiter among them
Is there a record of what the wagon was like at that point?

I can go back and get a manually compiled version otherwise
I was about to say that was the only pre-flip Lemonfairy interaction, but then I noticed this post from D5, which doesn't really move the needle either way. I guess I'm a little late on this one, but the wagon was NANOOK and Davos (per the post), with maybe Abby on it at that point as well? All three flipped not arbiter. I don't think Delta ever got that "manually compiled version"?

Well, no, that's part of why I thought the last wolf was probably Delta yesterday. He promised to go through the West thread for interactions, but he kinda stopped after ISOing pyxxy and... that was it. Didn't touch Rico or falcon. Also didn't look through Abbi's ISO, but all the landlords are flipped now anyway. I thought it was suspicious that he never touched any of the arbiters' ISOs and I said as much.

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:30 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 2:18 pm I've been trying to read Wilgy's posts for whatever good that does.
Because I do believe he was genuinely hunting for the last wolf, but then again it wouldn't have mattered to him who got lunched as long as it wasn't him.
He put extremely heavy suspicion on leetic two days ago and said he'd bet the game on leetic being a wolf, but spent all of yesterday pushing back against my case that he had to be Davos's owner and that I had to specifically be an arbiter to think that, and didn't really revisit leetic at all but instead pointed a weak finger at Epi, who has since flipped town.
But like, no, that was a bogus counterargument and Wilgy knew it lol. Wilgy was the only other one besides me from East Facility. And Davos flipped landlord. So that's the thing that sealed the deal for me, Wilgy never truly scumhunted me, he pushed me for being a wolf on the basis that I was pushing that he was a landlord, which he was.
This came up cause I was looking through leetic's posts from the day we yeeted Davos, and it got me wondering, how close were we to a full solve that day, as compared to yesterday? There was more pushback then, while yesterday was considerably more quiet.
Wilgy's push on me was an OMGUS, after I concluded (at F9 I believe?) that Wilgy was the most likely wolf from your side. He did the exact same thing with nutella, but said feud conveniently ended with nutella's death (and his push on you may have been the same as well). This was actually one of the reasons I wolfread Wilgy: he pulled a similar OMGUS on me on the only other wolf game of his that I've seen, and while that was eight years ago I guess old habits die hard. I am certainly mystified why he gave up a push on me to go after his sock partner, but I guess that'll have to be something I'll ask him in postgame.

Then I'll take a look at the previous day, too, when I get the chance. About the sock puppet, I'm guessing he just gave in to your pressure to do something about it, while also trying to distance himself from it in the hopes that he could get me to flip next. Considering not everyone agreed with me that the owner was still alive, maybe he would've been successful in convincing people not to yeet him after I flipped town, but I kinda think the Davos flip sealed his fate anyway and guaranteed that he wouldn't survive endgame.

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:24 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:09 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:07 pm The more I think about it, the less likely a significant disparity of 3 vs 1 wolf in one thread seems. I'm glad Delta seems to be stepping up here, I was a bit worried the game might already be lost due to them not showing up.
;_; I do apologise, been a series of unfortunate events & other things that are my fault

this is the first f3 ive been part of and being handed hammer - its not really hammer but theres the cross there so it does feel like it comes down to me - is terrifying so I want to be thorough, both from a mech standpoint and a reads one
This is my second F3 as far as I can remember, though I have been in a few F4s. First time didn't go so well; I got the wolf correct but was unable to convince the other townie in time. It's definitely stressful, especially when you can't enter the thread for large stretches of time, but fortunately that should no longer be an issue for me.

I don't think I've made it to F3 in a while. I've gotten misyeeted as town, hammered incorrectly as town, and won as a wolf in that FoL game I linked (the one with the poison, so essentially one IC plus a second townie and me). I won an F3 as town at some point like a year or more ago, lol.

Thing is that I lost the games where I rushed into drawing conclusions based on either a tunnel or hasty solving, and I won the games where I spent the full phase reasoning out who the last wolf was and talking to both of the others, and I don't really have the full phase to spend on it here, which is why I've been trying to get as much done as I could early in the day. But with a full-length day, at the very least, the other townie can make use of the extra time even if I can't. I'm still gonna try to make it for the last hour of the day.

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:16 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 9:02 pm As for me, idk if I really have much of a defense, I can tell you that in East thread I mostly pushed Alison and Nutella at the start, then reversed my Nutella read, happily wagoned Brad, and misyeeted Alison.
I can't exactly take your word for it since nobody's around to fact-check, although if any past statements in this thread from dead townies corroborate your claims it would be helpful if you could quote them.

I'm pretty sure Nutella and Wilgy both brought up my history of pushes but I'll have to dig for where they talked about it. I know Nutella brought up my pushes on Alison and her in context of voting me, and took the stance that I must've bussed Brad, while Wilgy took the opposite stance and said I definitely didn't bus Brad (which is funny, because he actually knew I didn't lol). So at least that much was mentioned here, somewhere on the day before Nutella got murked.

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:11 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:54 pm I guess my biggest question is, how likely is it that all of the Arbiters decided to avoid interacting with their last partner?
If Delta is the last arbiter, falcon managed to spend the entirety of D3 not interacting with any of their partners. He did interact with Ricochet and Delta a little bit in the previous thread though

That's part of what baffles me, but also that ALL of the Arbiters had little to no interaction with Delta. It's not even just falcon. There are mentions of Delta but hardly any attempt to talk with them. And what I normally expect is that there are some wolves who will avoid interacting with partners but others who will make an effort in that department.

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