The Syndicate

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 6:12 pm Bad luck to Kate for finding the lizard immediately. It may have actually been to the detriment of mafia that the lizard was discovered so early, as they could maneuver around it.

The tracker is still sitting in D4. I figured I’d keep you all digging regardless of if everything was found, but it wasn’t necessary lol

fwiw I assumed this and would agree with this interpretation of your rules

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 5:59 pm POG vote on Day 3 pyxxy, I'm not sure we could've done it if you hadn't voted Mac there.

Way to go Sabi voting all three wolves and being obvious town Day 3.

luck not skill o7

ggs everyone o7

I am never going to sus wilgy again I cannot read the fellow and in the future I will defer that job to others o7 sorry for another round of stress wilgz

[VOTE: lucy] aubergine dig 🫡∞

pyxxy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:37 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:43 pm The other thing that's weird is that pyxxy has found two abilites while the rest of the game has found zero. The odds of that are so low...

during a high school math competition I once guessed two of of six answers (they were 2 and 0)

I am in fact goated with the sauce at being lucky

If we're going to be more statistically honest, scum's only advantages were knowing 12 spots to avoid where the lizard might be (over after D1) and a combined 3 empty spots from N0

Oh! Wait! Like wilgy said back on D1, since the cop check hasn't been revealed, should we all reveal which spots we selected to be empty?

I picked E3 to be empty because E looks like a backwards 3 (and vice versa not being essentialist about E vs 3 here)

Alright I'm caught up and I'm probably going to vote Lucy.

Wilgy and Marmot have made a bunch of good points here and here:

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:12 pm Unfortunately, the only content lucy has really given this game has been around the leading wagons on Day 2 and 3, which in one case has proven to be W/V (Mac/Dennis), and in the other case has proven to be W/? (Neon/marmot).

On Day 2, she voted Dennis early, and mostly defended Mac when he became a counter-wagon.
On Day 3, she didn't vote, but defended both wagons when they were at 1-1.

There's plenty of evidence that lucy could be the last wolf.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:32 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:13 pm I'm not going to vote yet, I'll wait and give other players a look (namely DrWilgy).

If anyone else has a candidate for wolf they think is more likely than lucy, or have reason to believe lucy is town, please share it.

Sabi: Unlikely to be wolf. I feel that their read on my slot is somewhat lazy, but still understandable.

Pyxxy: 2nd slot in PoE. Their solving process makes sense, but the Sabi vote last cycle, plus the opinions on me are questionable. I just don't know if Pyxxy is like "behold my power" and a wolf at the same time.

Marmot: brother, if you are a wolf after 1v1 ing with Neon, good game. Well done. You deserve it.

Lucy: Nothing to prove they aren't wolf. PoE 1 and likely just needs to be clipped.

I was wrong about Neon/Marmot being T/T and the reason I was wrong about Neon was because I didn't think that Neon's wolf game would be so....empty?

Like I think I'm still pretty new to mafia and before Schiavetto in Secret Playerlist, I hadn't actually seen a wolf just fricking....do nothing. And force town to elim them for it. And that's kinda what Neon did here. And I think I'm weak to it.

So in that case, I would now want to vote Lucy first because I think I have a hard time reading that wolf playstyle.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:43 pm The other thing that's weird is that pyxxy has found two abilites while the rest of the game has found zero. The odds of that are so low...

oh wait, more importantly, this is maybe a town slip

it seems pretty clear to me at this point that scum probably dug up the cop check, or someone died with it, and in the former case I don't see w!Marmot writing this post

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:43 pm The other thing that's weird is that pyxxy has found two abilites while the rest of the game has found zero. The odds of that are so low...

during a high school math competition I once guessed two of of six answers (they were 2 and 0)

I am in fact goated with the sauce at being lucky

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:29 pm

pyxxy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:28 pm oh Wilgz showed up finally? lmao the last wolf is him then, why wouldn't he just slank through another day and not vote again

(now that I've been snarky I'll go read the thread)

Why do you say that about Wilgy but not lucy?

Wilgy has been positioning to push me ever since I helped get Mac killed

it's just what's in my attention, my POE is Wilgy _and_ lucy, I'm just getting back to the thread now so please give me a moment to catch up and respond to lots of time

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:40 am Thoughts:
D1 wagonomics are still off due to the missing votes. I suggested that the falcon wagon couldn't be pure and Mac encouraged that, makes me think that it could actually just be pure. Poor Falcs. Raises the question of if the voters on me was pure. Likely Pyxxy containing wolf if it's between Marmot Pyxxy.

D2 Mac I think joined Neon and Lucy, then after Marmot joined the Dennis? Rough look for Marmot I think, but I'd need to validate that. Does Mac join a wagon with 2 other teammates on it? He was pretty open in discussion with Neon, so maybe. I'd need to check the timing on Pyxy and Sabi's votes. (if I can get other opinions/or if you know the sequence of events for this day, that'd be helpful.)

D3 Neon wagon seems pure.

Conclusions:
Think the wolf just has to be in Pyxxy/Lucy.

Mainly on ask, 'Would W!Marmot cross with W!Neon when easier alternatives in Lucy/Wilgy exist?' Maybe, but that's a hard gamble. Plus there was the post Marmot made towards Mac that didn't feel like it could come from a teammate slot.

Idk if this is the correct way to phrase this, but it almost feels irresponsible to not yeet Lucy this cycle.

I have all the vote timings (in Pacific Time) if you want to refine your D2 read here

in spoiler:

oh Wilgz showed up finally? lmao the last wolf is him then, why wouldn't he just slank through another day and not vote again

(now that I've been snarky I'll go read the thread)

Based on their prior opinions, I'm expecting Wilgy and Marmot to push you today, Lucy.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:00 pm Why am I alive

my guess is that the last scum wants to bring you to KILO as an option to make you look suspicious i.e. "why hasn't Sabi died when they're towncleared :tinfoil:"

oh also uh I dug up the double vote last night so I've got 2x vote power today

any chance that someone used the cop check last night and we can clear another person besides Sabi?

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:16 pm

pyxxy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:12 pm @Sabiplz sorry about voting for you. I really did think it was TvT. Hadn't seen scum Neon before and she has always complained about being misyeeted often for her playstyle so I guess I bought it. Now I will yeet town Neon without regrets forever o7

Your saw her wolf in webdip

I did?

@Sabiplz sorry about voting for you. I really did think it was TvT. Hadn't seen scum Neon before and she has always complained about being misyeeted often for her playstyle so I guess I bought it. Now I will yeet town Neon without regrets forever o7

Neon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:31 pm Shrug yeeting me is kinda silly but like you do you.

lol

movie time

[VOTE: Sabi] aubergine dig A1

I'm seeing a movie with friends that starts about -30 minutes before the deadline, taking the bus there, so I'm just gonna vote in like an hour. It's the weekend so I don't expect anyone else to show up in the thread before then tbh.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:49 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:46 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:40 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:35 pm She has defended both Mac and Neon, so a Mac/lucy/neon team is not far-fetched at all.

this is a good lv1 team. I think.

I still intend on going through Mac's iso specifically but this is a team I can see. If I'm wrong about a slot and W are not in [Lucy, Neon] then I think there's likely one in Marmot, but I have NO clue who the teammate is. Pyxxy maybe? You've been soft defending them quite abit this game.

Was this a POE you came to on your own, or were you sheeping mine?

Both? It's a logical conclusion I feel. Neon has enough scum weight and Lucy did defend the slot.

If I'm wrong on a read it really would just be you. Like, unless Mac was all in on the 'bus me bois' but, again, future me problem.

you're going to say "look here's my PoE" but this is very explicitly walking around claiming it as your own

you're all like "dang wow we have the same PoE" but that puts all the blame on Marmot if you're wrong about Neon

you're happy to shade Sabi

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:20 pm And maybe it's the fact that I've seen them do this exact play before, so I'm looking for it, but I really do feel Mac told Sabi to bus them. The tempo then changed when he decided to vote for Dennis and that's when he went into a chaos state.

yet they're not in your PoE?

Why not?

like did you forget to hit post on a draft or something

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:33 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:16 pm Right now I'm leaning towards voting Neon.

Same.

I feel that there's been plenty opportunity for Neon to get engaged with the thread this cycle, but that hasn't really happened.

Lucy kinda as well.

Honestly makes me feel that we have little choice but to bank on the Potential Lucy Neon PoE as they aren't self resolving or spewing.

I will note, pyxxy's point of "Wilgy hasn't really had a suspicion since Fingersplints" doesn't feel genuine.

The PoE I provided and order rof PoE layering seems to have been completely ignored by Pyxxy.

what PoE lmao

you've done a bunch of good work today yet you signed off with

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:22 pm Imma digest Mac abit before moving onto my next victim.

and only appear again after someone else makes the slightest move towards Neon

3 hours until da poll close, woo

Neon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 7:01 am

pyxxy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 4:29 am

Neon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 2:41 am Sabi and Lucy are my town core right now.

Anyone outside that is on the table for me right meow.

I'm not cleared to you?

Nawp should you be?

you're the one who finds core town so clearly I'm not core town

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 4:37 am Oh and pyxxy can you talk about why you picked fingersplints for the vig if you haven't already? I think it was a fine choice, just curious.

finally someone cares T.T jk you're all asleep was my assumption

1) fingersplints was part of my solve (as were you) and I've never gotten to vig before ever so after the mac flip my ego was massive and I wanted to run the table

2) fs was easy miskill bait and likely to be a D3/D4 wagon, so why not just flip now and not waste a day

3) the good DrWilgy was pushing fingersplints from D1 and I wanted to see who he would push once FS was gone

^this #3 was the reason for my silence at SOD + about shooting fingersplints

Because as Sabi said, there was zero chance that FS was going to be the NK, so either I'm right and town has great odds to win _or_ I'm wrong and scum is still 100% guaranteed to be unprepared for FS's flip, forcing a more honest SOD reaction.

And I'm still processing.

Maybe a better way to outline my thought is why I think everyone could be scum:

Marmot (you)
- you took forever D2 to finally vote Dennis after Seanzie tied it
- the Dennis vote lacked convincing explanation besides "Mac tricked me into doing it"
- you swore you would have voted Mac today which....okay? I bet Dennis would have too

Sabi
- could have theoretically save DrWilgy on D1 (this is mostly a note not a reason to scumread them)
- EOD D2 depression posting was also killing the thread, could have been a combined effort with Mac to drain town WIM in order to save him (also the 1M post thing helped kill the thread) (I have no idea if that 1M post thing is even true tbh :tinfoil:)
- immediately tried to clear themselves at SOD D3 for starting the Mac wagon, even though it was when Dennis had 3 votes and it was not obvious that another wagon would really take hold (this could be my inexperience with mafia showing here and undervaluing how influential starting a new wagon can be in a locked votes game?)
- did a weird ass 180 from opening with "Marmot u got some 'splaining to do" to "I won't vote Marmot even if it's gamethrowing"
- "Rude but fair"....I know Sabi treats me differently than their mafia pals, but I was expecting....more

DrWilgy
- been pushing fingersplints since D1 and it started opportunistically when Falcon pointed out that FS's sr on falcon was weak/nonexistent
- completely forgets that he was sussing Mac D1 until commenting "dad let me out of the pocket" to Mac once the Mac wagon had gotten up to 2 votes
- voted off the main 2 wagons D2, even though there was basically no thread movement towards FS between Wilgy announcing "if a FS wagon appears, I'll vote it" and starting said FS wagon (interesting too that Neon's two major content posts came between Wilgy's here, and Neon tried to push Dennis + FS)
- hasn't managed to find a new sr now that FS is dead

Neon
- the D2 posts openly defending Mac and pushing Dennis + fingersplints
- snap voting Marmot with self preservation as the only reason, which seems very selfish, why wouldn't this cause town to tunnel and possibly miskill both of y'all? should have don't it on a real scumread (but also says she can't scumread, so, fair)
- I want to hear more about why Sabi and lucy are towncore (and somehow I'm not)

lucy
- slanked + no vote D1
- general lowposting / low WIM
- idk it's a weak case for scum lucy atm, mostly because it all seems like NAI

Seanzie
- lacking the firepower that I saw in Secret Playerlist, granted he was a PR in that game
- uhhhhh idk I'm losing momentum here with this big post, I also just tr him so yeah, he tied Mac with Dennis when only me Marmot and FS had votes in the back so seems towny to me

now you have some content to work with

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 4:32 am My next question is the one you said you'd respond to after you heard from neon

I'm back. I went off to re-read SOD today (D3) for like the 4th time.

Your case against Neon is solid. Her vote on you really comes out of nowhere and I have to assume is based on truth; she felt the heat and wanted to try to direct the conversation. It seems like locked votes can have a strong effect on what people consider possible. Including yourself, Marmot.

Which is why my initial read of the situation was that it is Town v Town.

Because here I am, SOD D3 and my solve was wrong so my read on you has reset. My experience with Neon has been multiple miskills + not being able to read her + her being reasonably upset about getting killed by weak reads and thread momentum.

But your case is solid. Neon is in my POE. I guess I'm just trying to figure out who that pairs Neon with. And why was wolf Neon so cared of a Seanzie who hasn't effectively pushed a wagon yet this game?

I'm also trying to understand why you've been framing the day as you vs Neon. No other choices allowed. You don't think you could both be town?

Then again, somehow you think I'm not town.

There's just something that doesn't make sense to me yet. I'm working on it. I'm hoping Wilgy will help me out. Speaking of Wilgy...

oh right

fair enough

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 4:31 am Pyxxy/neon might just be the wolf team.

In a situation where neon and myself have crossed votes. Pyxxy doesn't seem to want to entertain a world where neon could be a wolf, and doesn't seem to want to address anything I've posted except for one post he's found suspicious.

That's what I'm seeing anyway

@pyxxy do you think a w!neon world exists?

yes

next question

Neon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 2:41 am Sabi and Lucy are my town core right now.

Anyone outside that is on the table for me right meow.

I'm not cleared to you?

have you found any town then, neon?

Neon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 12:59 am

pyxxy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 10:45 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 10:19 pm

pyxxy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 8:02 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:14 pm I think I'm feeling demotivated by being snowed by Mac.

I respect him too much.

@Neon I am assigning you homework. In 20 hours from now (3pm ET), I would like your top scumread.

This should give you plenty of time to find your WIM. Please don't feel obligated to participate in this thread until your homework is do.

This assignment will be graded Pass/Fail.

The problem with your assignment is it requires me to do the opposite of everything I do in a mafia game lol

oh

that's my fault then

lemme pivot

how do you describe your town/scum playstyles?

I like to hunt town I'm not a scum hunter very much. Once I find town I scum case within those I don't find towny.

And I don't like to do much other than meme and mess around until I find things I think need to be discussed and than I will point them out and let someone else lead the charge if they agree.

oh so I really did ask you the mathematical inverse of a good question

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 11:43 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 11:42 pm @pyxxy what do you think of the cases I've presented on Neon thus far?

@pyxxy

I want to hear from Neon about her playstyle before answering this

I feel like I'm just now realizing how misunderstand Neon is / Neon thinks she is

If I were to make a case against Marmot, it would be this:

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:14 pm Mac and Dennis are really the only viable chops at this point.

If fingersplints Dennis, her wagon could technically still tie his, but it's a 50/50


I don't like this day.

This is a sus Marmot post.

Day 2 vote tracking in spoiler: Seanzie, Marmot, pyxxy, and fingersplints still had votes at this point. Totals were: 3 Dennis 2 Mac 1 fingersplints

This post is trying to pocket/push fingersplints into voting Dennis which I assume would have been followed by either Marmot acquiescing and also voting Dennis or Marmot holding to see if they can vote off wagon or safely vote Mac without actually killing Mac.

oh also I shot fingersplints AMA

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:09 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:06 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:04 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:01 pm Neon is next IMO.

i still tr her for voting first even if wrong

Personally I do not think this is a good reason to townread her.

i'm gonna have to reread d1-2 tbh, i lack the clears to pair/unpair anyone this game and i'm not actually thinking beyond assumptions

any luck that you found time to re-read D1/D2 yet?

Neon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 10:19 pm

pyxxy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 8:02 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:14 pm I think I'm feeling demotivated by being snowed by Mac.

I respect him too much.

@Neon I am assigning you homework. In 20 hours from now (3pm ET), I would like your top scumread.

This should give you plenty of time to find your WIM. Please don't feel obligated to participate in this thread until your homework is do.

This assignment will be graded Pass/Fail.

The problem with your assignment is it requires me to do the opposite of everything I do in a mafia game lol

oh

that's my fault then

lemme pivot

how do you describe your town/scum playstyles?

Neon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:14 pm I think I'm feeling demotivated by being snowed by Mac.

I respect him too much.

@Neon I am assigning you homework. In 20 hours from now (3pm ET), I would like your top scumread.

This should give you plenty of time to find your WIM. Please don't feel obligated to participate in this thread until your homework is do.

This assignment will be graded Pass/Fail.

it would be really funny if the solve was wilgy/sabi, with sabi pocketing marmot and neon just freaking out

@Sabiplz would you be offended if I pushed your wagon today? you keep saying you want to be NK'd anyway, this would be even faster

Neon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:06 pm I was wrong. I was an idiot. I was snowed hard by Mac but that doesn't make me wolf

@DrWilgy does this remind you of what IAWY did in the Secret Playerlist game? After IAWY got caught trying to save Vivax and push Falcon?

I'm asking because you were paired with IAWY

For the general thread:

I am working under the assumption that the cop check was either dug up by SVS, scum, or is still buried. There is plenty of time for this assumption to be wrong.

Did someone claim the gun? I didn't see that while skimming.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:54 pm pyxxy has been the quitest thus far today, which is a little concerning to me. @pyxxy voting Mac when you did basically townclears you in my eyes, but what does your solve look like now?


Given the vc, I would encourage people to at least solve between Neon/myself to start with. If you think that we're both town and want to look elsewhere, fine. But finding another viable wagon will be harder to get over than one of us atm.

I'm busy today. Will catch up later.

Do you think Sabi is pocketing you?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:18 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:16 pm if I die here please kill pyxxy and Dennis. Fingersplints is probably the 3rd or she'd have voted Dennis earlier. And his read on her is very partnery.

GL town.

Just based on Mac's ISO:

There's minimal interaction with Seanzie.

Sabi feels much worse.

Pyxxy I'm tinfoiling.

Marmot is clear.

Mac's interactions with Lucy are weird bud idk how to read them.

"Just based on Mac's ISO:"
"Marmot is clear."

How much does the first part influence the second part?

what's a cross

video games are fun

idk site rules, are we allowed to petition Scotty for a longer D3 to reset the deadline to something better for everyone?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:24 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:24 pm I want someone I trust to talk to lol

@DrWilgy @pyxxy either of you here?

50% mafia

stop openwolfing you're killing the vibes, thanks

I'm still playing video games with friends skimming during cutscenes I saw your tags

I wanted to vote fingersplints but I've kinda screwed myself by not working with DrWilgy's vote

but now if fingersplints/mac are w/w, if I hold, it's less damning if fs beats me and votes Dennis

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine dig E2

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:14 pm I think Mac and Dennis have both been townier than fingersplints and Neon, I don't like that we're stuck with these options lol.

want to make it a triple rand by both voting fingersplints?

(I'll be back in the thread for real in about 30 minutes)

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:48 pm Welcome to sabi depression posting hour

^NPR news hour voice

fingersplints wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:33 pm What happens with ties this game? I can’t remember if it was addressed

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Jan 15, 2023 7:10 pm

Kate wrote: ↑Sun Jan 15, 2023 6:33 pm @Scotty what happens in the event of a tie?

In the case of a tie, elimination will be randomized

fingersplints wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:20 pm

pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:18 pm

pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:11 pm

fingersplints wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:04 pm Guess I’ll vote for self pres if I make it back in time
idc anymore

self pres? ohhhhh self preservation

you've got 3 hours and 49 minutes until the poll closes

@fingersplints why not vote now? you don't scumread Dennis? it's not a guaranteed way to save yourself but it's pretty close

also you only have 1 vote so I'm not sure why self preservation is on your mind already

Because there has been a lot of talk of me, and the last game I played I literally went to sleep day 1 only to see a wagon formed when I slept and I was eliminated
I’ve been playing this game long enough to see I’m in danger today

I completely agree with you but your best self preservation option is to vote Dennis and go to sleep imo

I'm getting the impression that people will return to the thread with < 2 hours left, and votes will probably start coming in with < 1 hour left, at which point you're going to be wiped out

if you're town I would kindly push you to drop a Dennis vote and go to sleep, because idk how convincing anyone can be when delirious

maybe you're the exception though