The Syndicate

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:07 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 2:00 am
Dunnstral wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:54 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:45 am uh, important to note, manny is currently alive. Which really should mean a lot.
Mafia could have this role:

The Think Tank

Once during the game during any night phase, you may select a player. If that player has any special role abilities, they will be neutralized and no longer usable for the remainder of the game. This shot is not returned if the selected player has no special abilities.

Separately, twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. You will be told if that player has ever used any non-fatal night action.
Manny is a 2 shot watcher who claimed blocked N2. Unless the shot doesn’t get burned when blocked (which iirc, is how Jay has done it in the past), Manny’s “vanilla” anyways.

I believe it was Mac who called Manny claiming blocked before it happened.
Manny was going to be doing that as mafia. He was going to be really blocked if he was town. It's wifom tbh.

He's scummy because he's wolfsiding. He voted me yesterday and kept it there despite me trying my best to read him in good faith because it was the pro wolf thing to do in the context.

If you want to clear him off of his check. I'd ask whether it actually makes sense for him to have actually made the check that he made contextually or whether it's more likely he knew Falcon's real action and claimed that because it was safer to claim a real action he knew occurred to avoid getting outed by someone else providing information that contradicted a hail Mary claim.

If you are the mafia watcher you have to claim the town watcher and you have to claim a real action. It's not clearing and aside from that he is deeply poe.

But was there any need for him to do it the way he did? Assume Manny and Falcon are Mafia and Manny felt like he had to claim something to stay alive. First question would be why claim at all - to save himself? By claiming viewing Falcon he clearly put another teammate in a difficult position later down the line though - he'd trade to get towncred in exchange for a dead teammate....and then he doesn't even go through with the bus?

It makes no sense to me mechanically, I think that there would have been better roles to claim in such a case, or better actions that don't require a teammate to die. He also makes it more likely to be targeted by the 3P if they get impatient about Manny not dying to wolves - and the Bulletproof wolf was Falcon, not Manny.

I just find this setup very hard to believe, sorry.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:02 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:41 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:39 pm Brad is town via being out of his range.
Chelsea is town because she was one of Abi's top town and Abi wouldn't have been killed in any mafia teams where their top town was mafia.
Dunnstral is just towny af. Along with Lanmisa.
Epi is probably not mafia due to lack of self pres and voting with Falcon d1 off wagon but that's not for sure.
Creature is following his mafia playstyle curve and not solving the way he generally does. He's not exhibiting Creature brand paranoia
Jack is now outed by his day 1 eod vote positioning.
TSP is a bit of an IC here.
Manny has been wolfsiding all game long egregiously.

Upper POE

Epi

Lower POE

Manny
Creature
Jack

Epi is probably Mr House.
What was my D1 vote positioning?

Didn’t Manny literally bag us a wolf yesterday?
Let me frame it another way.

Manny claimed a real mafia night action as a mafia to lend credence to his assigned fake claim.

Falcon survived the initial claim. Falcon then didn't survive because a whole bunch of people not named Manny pushed him over.

Manny even initially read Falcon targeting Seanzie as probably town when he outed the action.

Far from clearing.

I didn't play right from the start of the phase (3AM...) but from when I entered it felt like Manny was rather set on Falcon being Mafia for not dying despite himself being blocked in addition to not getting back to respond/claim actions. Did I get my timeline wrong here?

Rejoice, my internet keeps having hiccups again... It works right now but...let's see for how long.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:50 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:56 pm Epi is now voting someone on a critical day 4 because "you're not fun to play with". Because I reacted to a 4 vote wagon aggressively.

Epi who is himself image posting.

Epi who is himself a curmudgeon.

If I was independent in this I'd be questioning Epi as to whether not enjoying someone's playstyle is a reasonable reason to be voting them on day 4.

Easier explanation is his agenda doesn't concern the town wincon tbh.
This is a desperate but valid point, the kinda point I make as a wolf when I feel like I’m caught for the wrong reasons.

Mac wolf, Epi sk or vice versa (and I know I just made fun of Mac’s 3P read on Epi) is a distinct possibility.

I'm not convinced Epi can ever be anything but neutral at this point and I am not sure how confident I feel about bringing a signposter to endgame.

Unfortunately considering that the 3P finally started killing I also don't know if we have time to kill someone like Epi. We are 6v3v1 or 7v2v1 right now and especially the former possibility looks very unappealing...

Okay, it took me until today to realise that the poisoner works NOTHING like he does on MU and that several of my thoughts about that role were dead wrong.

Also damn, I feel sorry for the poisoner if they exist, only two shots for the whole game? What do you even do if all Mafia die early?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:14 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:12 pm ok bear in mind that I've apparently either gotten a lot worse at reading falcon or (more likely) he's gotten a lot better but this is pretty textbook w!falcon. Very little real aggression, no bite in questions. That said I just got him wrong in BotB so I do think he's not really in line with that meta.

Sorta irrelevant but between the mech stuff and the ISO I'd lean that he's a wolf over 3P here, especially since I think he'd at least try to play a 3P as town
here is a post where I demonstrate knowledge of both the mech stuff and the ISO, both of which I looked into somewhat extensively (ok that's a lie I didn't really look into the mech stuff that extensively but I at least did my due diligence)

Ah, sorry, it was you himself that pointed out the meta thingy yourself which makes the orange part more of a ? to me though - if you know that dipping is Falcon's base M.O. why does Falcon doing exactly that say anything about partners (the orange from earlier)?

Chelsea wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:57 pm
LanMisa wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:53 pm
Chelsea wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:48 pm Long Con does not seem like a good kill for mafia I can't think of a single team that would want that dead unless they knew Long Con was 3p?

I took the flip as they had to choose a wincon to join and they picked the 3p, not that they knew each other.

So I figured the 3p killed Long Con.
I mean, that's possible, I just feel like joining a 3P without that player being informed in any capacity about that feels... unfortunate, I guess. Or bad game design.

I guess we'll figure out post game.
True, I don't think it needs to be talked about much. What's your read on Dunnstral?

Very towny, very thoughtful, the voice of reason in this town so far. A bit less chaotic than Scotty, but I think that their alignment shines through every post - if anyone can come up with that many genuine thoughts and stances while wolfing then I've not met them yet.

I'd say... top town right after Manny who I'm willing to lock in due to mechanics at this point.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:11 am he's not an outed wolf because he's been wolfy and there's circumstantial mech stuff, he's an outed wolf because either someone told him to shut up or he came to that conclusion himself

Which, for the record, does sorta limit who's on the wolf team but I don't know enough people in this game that I'm not really willing to make any determinations based on it

I don't understand the orange parts: Why does Falcon shutting down that way implicate any players or clear others from being partners here? I did see someone (Dunn?) point out that disappearing like that is very meta-like for Falcon and it's not like other teammates could have forced or prevented Falcon from showing up or staying out to begin with.

Chelsea wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:48 pm Long Con does not seem like a good kill for mafia I can't think of a single team that would want that dead unless they knew Long Con was 3p?

I took the flip as they had to choose a wincon to join and they picked the 3p, not that they knew each other.

So I figured the 3p killed Long Con.

I mean, that's possible, I just feel like joining a 3P without that player being informed in any capacity about that feels... unfortunate, I guess. Or bad game design.

I guess we'll figure out post game.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:07 am Let me amend my opinion on Manny a bit. It is still possible that they are third party. The poisoner role has the same ability as the town role, and it is possible that this was their fake claim. My consideration here is that their claim was a result of thinking they were a possible elimination target. I still don't think Manny is a member of the mafia, but Manny has been hanging back enough and wasn't the one who made the initial push on Falcon, and I think they could be a third party.

Here is what I am thinking right now:

Chelsea - Town
LanMisa - Town
Lime Coke - Town
Jackofhearts2005 - Town

Manny - Town/3p
Creature - Town/3p

Epignosis - Town/Mafia/3p

MacDougall - Mafia
TonyStarkPrime - Mafia

Those listed as just town I have reasons for believing they're not mafia, and I think they're playing a bit too forward to be a third party. The third party roles in this game have weak protective abilities for themselves; either one-shot commute, show as vanilla to role cops, or night 1 bulletproof, and as the only member of the faction they don't want to make themselves kill targets for the mafia. For those listed as Town/3p, I have reasons to believe they are not aligned with the mafia, but still think they could be a third party. Epignosis is a big unknown; I do acknowledge they are currently voting for MacDougall, and I have bigger reasons to suspect other people. Those I listed as just Mafia I believe have associations that point towards them being a part of the mafia team.

I am open to counter arguments here.

Okay, can you give me some of your thoughts on Chelsea and Lime? Their interactions were a huge talking point on D2. I assume you believe Lime's read on Chelsea is genuine I assume?

Also, as I stated earlier the 3P had the Courier as a partner. While we don't know what that entails in its entirety do you think this weakens the "no protection" aspect of what you described earlier about 3Ps in this game or does your stance stay the same regardless?

Chelsea wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:46 pm The way I took the 3p flip was they had to choose someone to join forces with and they picked the other 3p.

That seems to be the case, yeah.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:09 am I think Manny is likely town for having outted seeing Falcon visit. Even thouh Manny wasn't the one to initially push Falcon for it.

Macdougall as I hinted at, I don't think you jumping straight to "mafia killed Scotty" makes sense and it seems you may privy to too much information here.

Ignoring the mechanics, Manny outing his result without hard pushing Falcon proves that he's town since if that was an elaborate bussing plot there was no need to downplay it for half of D2. Manny only really went for Falcon D3 when Falcon completely dipped anyways which is a rather natural...progression is the word I am looking for.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:01 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:43 pm Abi and Seanzie townread me. Scotty was working amicably with me. LC I am fairly sure townread me but without stating as much. Michelle pressure voted me but really didn't suspect me.

Meanwhile all game long I've had Creature, Chelsea, Brad, Manny and Lanmisa threatening me existentially at all times and they're all still alive.

There's not a single reasonable argument that I am mafia aside from paranoia.
Seanzie was a pr kill. We know mafia rolecopped there now. Scotty called you mafia before they died. (And may have been a 3p kill anyway from a town perspective). Abigail was my top townread alongside Michelle and both of those kills make sense. You wouldn't be the only person on your team anyway, not every kill needs to center around you. Obviously town plus potentially threatening an ally is enough. All the names mentioned threatening you except Lanmisa can be seen as potential miseliminations from a mafia perspective.

Yeah, it stands to reason that Scotty was the 3P kill according to Long Con's flip.

Are you purely voting Mac out of flips/NAs though?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:49 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:44 pm I am now near mathematically confirmed town. Thanks y'all.

I get impulse-voting people you don't enjoy playing with but that's hardly a strategy for a game where you play to win...

I also don't quite understand the flashvote wagon on Mac since literally nobody gave an explanation but I guess I will hopefully find something along the line?

So, according to the flips, Long Con had "pledged allegiance to Mr.House. I assume that

a) Long Con may have known the 3P then, and vice versa, and
b) Long Con should be the Mafia kill whereas Scotty was the 3P kill?

Would be ironic if the 3P ended up killing their own buddy at least.

Manny wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 2:04 pm @LanMisa come start postting alr smh

Sorry, day was busy so far, had an online seminar with my students and also had to play chess games in the MU online tournament.

I'm going to look at the things that I missed and give you my thoughts on them as I see them.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:55 am
Manny wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:44 am
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:37 am I feel like wolves are just blatantly whatever town they desire in this game
what

do you think falcon's town?
I am unsure why he's being wagoned

I thought you tracked him towny last night?

And here I thought there was literally nothing left to do this phase.

Falcon got watched by Manny and has hidden in their basement since then which is more or less a wolf claim. Their one post on D3 pretty much alludes to that.

Because the situation seems so clear-cut everyone is taking a break (myself included; thought I'd be doing a lot more today when D3 started yesterday but honestly there's not much to discuss right now.

I think I caught up and there doesn't seem to be much to do in terms of discussions right now either so I think I'll retire for the evening and play some video games.

Ironically it's the "Yakuza" series.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 5:32 pm Not gonna be around much today. Got shit to do. If anyone else has any questions now is the time.

Not right now, but I may have some tomorrow (Tuesday).

Okay, acknowledged, Tony.

What do you think about the claim situation then, and do you think that Creature should be our biggest concern today? I feel like the mechanics and the Mac situation demand more attention for now but you may have a different take from mine and I'd like to hear it.

Also, more important question Tony: What is your personal take on Mac, then? Town since he's having a similar world view to yours? Or wolf since you called him "scary"? I assume it's the former but I'd rather understand you properly here.

Do you have anything on Creature aside from volume? I only saw a naked vote there.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 5:06 pm
LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:27 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:56 am Like is it all an elaborate hoax? Is that in Mac’s range?
I see no reason why Mac would need to pocket you specifically and I am astounded that this is the main conclusion that you came to after three one-liner posts.
Why do you think that either I thought that or that it was my conclusion remotely? Solving Mac is in fact important to winning this game

I agree with that take regarding Mac but "I feel like Mac's posts are pocketing me" is what I understood from the posts that you made.

Maybe I'm not used to your style of solving/making posts but I didn't see anything beyond that.

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:23 am
Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 6:58 am I didn't even know the PRs were the yeets I just read the "civilian" part and thought it was just vanilla.
blinks, idk if this is outting or clearing, kinda wanna say the latter? but lmfao on u not realizing that the exes were PR's.

To be fair, on a new site I could fake that post in a heartbeat.

Not saying this happened here, but derps are (theoretically) easier than you may think.

But... I derp as both town and wolf, and very much unintentionally so, thus if my personal experience is anything to go by this doesn't say anything about Lime's alignment.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:57 pm Meh. Of course you're gonna be focused on Manny over Falcon. Manny is the one actually posting.

No, I mean, I don't understand why Mac reads Manny that strongly in a different way that I do. Manny leaving more of an impression is quite obvious.

I keep forgetting which page I was on during backreading and as a result I end up making myself a lot of extra work.

Sigh

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:50 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:36 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:35 pm If there’s one takeaway after just walking my dog and discussing this game with her, we’re both in agreement that Mac is probably partners with falcon.

Prelim associations ftw
Ask your dog why.
She just deadass licked my eyeball.
LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:37 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:35 pm If there’s one takeaway after just walking my dog and discussing this game with her, we’re both in agreement that Mac is probably partners with falcon.

Prelim associations ftw
Where did you find an association? I didn't see one so far (aside from Mac being after Manny) but then again I am also pretty awful at finding them in the first place.
So it’s the full package- it’s how Mac has approached his reads.

Like, check his iso and progression with the manny/falcon thing. His entire focus has been on discrediting manny, and almost NOTHING on falcon’s part in it. In fact, I had to scroll back pretty far in his iso to find this:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 12:11 am My thoughts are that I want to burn Chelsea/Brad/Manny with authority.

Scotty's 3p obsession just makes me think he is one.

I'm alive. Yay. Who cares. I've lived to d3 as town in more games than I haven't.

Brad/Chelsea are a pseudo masonry and the mafia do not seem to care. The only people that have been opposed to them are me and the dead.

Manny would not have claimed as town under no pressure for fear of anticlaim. No fear of anticlaim equals mafia.

Falcon actually is just rand and not actually wolfy really. No self pres.

Dunnstral and Lanmisa are billboard townies.

Everyone else is like lean town but with no confidence.
He’s almost willing to write off falcon because of his view of how manny approaches the claim and not of the actual claim itself.

Could he just be in a tunnel in his view of a wolf manny? Certainly. But looking at his play thus far over the course of 3 days, I’m not sure this is the read that makes sense to get hung up on

Hm.. I think that Mac approaches this from a position of Manny lying about his claim and Falcon not claiming yesterday when wagoned themselves. Whether that position is believable or not is a different question but it seems coherent at least. The question is: Would w!Mac lean himself out of the window to protect a partner in Falcon's position? Mac's under scrutiny, yeah, but far less than Falcon, and if Falcon flips wolf/Manny flips town (or both) it would look quite bad for him as well.

I do not understand the tunnel on Manny here, but that's a different story.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:46 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:46 pm Why are you voting the Chairman of the proceedings?
Roleclaim plz

And night actions/results while we are at it.

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:35 pm If there’s one takeaway after just walking my dog and discussing this game with her, we’re both in agreement that Mac is probably partners with falcon.

Prelim associations ftw

Where did you find an association? I didn't see one so far (aside from Mac being after Manny) but then again I am also pretty awful at finding them in the first place.

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:33 pm
LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:24 pm Agree with the LanMisa and Dunnstral reads
I would be worried if u disagreed with the LanMisa read

Two weeks, give or take, in my classroom, and you'd be unable to live without my dry sense of humour, Manny.

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:30 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:28 am That's not true I've been voted plenty by multiple living slots including you, Lime Coke, Creature and Lanmisa. Chelsea has been sus of me too. I have much better kills to make here for my survival than Michelle, Abigail and Seanzie. They are nonsense kills for a Mac wolf team to make.
If u were the only person in ur wolfteam sure, but i wouldnt be surprised if u were the member of ur team in the least amount of danger.
All of the people that have voted u have been pretty far away from eod and all have bigger priorities than getting u killed me aside.
and there's no point in killing me when i can just get missyeeted

Funnily enough I kinda agree with both stances here; Manny is correct that Mac is under so much pressure that it's likelier for him to set up team mates... but the kills don't really feel like anyone or anything was set up in any way, if Lime's summary of posts is to be trusted.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:56 am Like is it all an elaborate hoax? Is that in Mac’s range?

I see no reason why Mac would need to pocket you specifically and I am astounded that this is the main conclusion that you came to after three one-liner posts.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 12:11 am My thoughts are that I want to burn Chelsea/Brad/Manny with authority.

Scotty's 3p obsession just makes me think he is one.

I'm alive. Yay. Who cares. I've lived to d3 as town in more games than I haven't.

Brad/Chelsea are a pseudo masonry and the mafia do not seem to care. The only people that have been opposed to them are me and the dead.

Manny would not have claimed as town under no pressure for fear of anticlaim. No fear of anticlaim equals mafia.

Falcon actually is just rand and not actually wolfy really. No self pres.

Dunnstral and Lanmisa are billboard townies.

Everyone else is like lean town but with no confidence.

Disagree with your interpretation of Manny's claim, posted my reasons as for why earlier.

Agree with the lime/Chelsea dynamics needing much more scrutiny, if not for the mechanics that require us to look at Falcon for now, but it's definitely something I want to come back to.

Agree with the LanMisa and Dunnstral reads

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:15 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:00 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:57 pm
LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:31 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:17 pm
Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:09 pm Also town has 4 flipped dead power roles so far. And Manny is claiming to be a 5th. Is becomes increasingly more likely that any additional power we spot acting is not town but instead anti-town.
That's a good point.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:12 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:07 pm

I'm not in the mental zone to immediately understand "Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie", can you calrify that please?
Sure. Town's power roles are listed and there are only a few that target that falcon could be. I find stuff like the bodyguard would be questionable to use on Seanzie night 1 when they were the counter to the wagon.
But it was Manny that called out falcon, right? Are they both bad, and it was a bussing kind of ploy?
If both were wolves, even if Manny ends up "bussing" a partner like that, Manny's survival would out him sooner rather than later. I also don't think that Manny would go for such a strategy when already under scrutiny/in the upper part of the POE for many players unless the wolf team was in an awfully losing spot - which it doesn't look like at all.

I could theoretically see a 3P Manny making such a move, but that requires a poisoner world (with no poisons out so far) - but I think you see the issues that crop up immediately in such a scenario.

I'm pretty sure Manny's just town here and Falcon... needs to claim, fast. And then we decide from there whether we believe that claim or not.
This is presuming we would know if someone dies of poisoning.
The insidiousness of poison in this game makes the presence of poison-cure abilities laughable.
I’d even go so far as to make a broad assumption that there are NO abilities that feature poison in this game. The syntax of the poisoner makes it seem like no one will know a person is poisoned. So that means anyone healing it has to find a needle in a haystack.

Ergo, I don’t think that town PR healer exists in this game, nor do I think that mafia poisoner exists. I mean; we already presume White Lobster Legs is in, so why would mafia have *another* kill power

To be fair, the town poison healer is also a 2-shot tracker but yeah, I kinda doubt that there should be that much more town PRs running around.

Somehow the post I was trying to refer to is no longer here. My internet is having constant hiccups right now but I meant Scotty's reaction to my Falcon post (plus vote) that for some reason my browser no longer shows me.

Ugh, I hate my internet sometimes.

I mean, I agree, Scotty: If Falcon doesn't come back we need to treat Falcon as an outed wolf/3P and proceed as such. That was exactly the point of my statement though.

[VOTE: Falcon ] aubergine

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:08 pm
LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:06 pm I still feel like your outing was a bit premature strategy-wise, but at least it feels (from the posts that I read so far) as if a weight has been lifted from your shoulders: Your posts seem to be more uplifted than they were D2 and D1. So if that's the case I'm glad you are doing better now!
tbh only reason i claimed was to out my information cuz i wasnt sure if shielding Falcon was correct or not lol.

Makes sense, I didn't consider that! I guess that since you claimed these things separately my brain never made that obvious connection, lol.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 11:18 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 11:12 pm
Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:50 pm I don't want to vote Scotty because they accused 3 people at the same time, and I associate that as coming from town. I think that is less likely to come from mafia or third party. With that said I'm not sure how they got from a to b to c to d here, their post makes no sense as I've pointed out because we were talking about falcon and manny's result and they said it was meant to get Lime Coke yeeted.
I guess keep in mind I still haven’t read end of day, but at a base level, seeing falcon visit Seanzie doesn’t really mean anything. That a mech conclusion based on factors that are impossible to deduce atm.
I’m making a level 0 NK analysis
You said it yourself, falcon could be any of the remaining roles that target. Well, most of those are aligned with anti-town faction, and given the amount of dead town power roles, by the numbers the anti-town factiosn probably have more power roles remaining than town. You know who else could be any role? The other people you are voting for, except they are even less likely to be anti-town than falcon because they can be citizens too.

This is a weird take, doing this solve with math (I assume Citizens means VT/without ability here) but yeah, I don't think wolves would take that much effort coming up with such an angle of pushing someone like that with many other easier reasons to push here (mechanics, activity, ...) are available.

Dunnstral is very much town.

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:05 pm
Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:47 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:40 pm Yeah, it made sense. Idk if I bought it but it made sense....until Manny came out with a scumread on Falcon with zero posts from Falcon between "I'm tracking this player because I think they're an outted town PR" to "75% chance Falcon is a wolf in any possible world."
I watched it overnight because i thougth there were chances of him being a town PR, i stopped thinking that when i saw that both him and me survived the night.
Him not being in my A) and B) team is just cuz i forgot temporarily he existed
….you forgot he existed? After targeting him? I feel like he would be your throughline after seeing him target Seanzie

Mmmmmm something about that doesn’t add up

Talking from experience here, Scotty, this is just Manny in a nutshell.

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:04 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:03 pm Because if he doesn’t have a lot of heat of going over, this is pretty unlikely as wolf behavior imo. If he had heat, I can see this as a play to buy time.
Mac had voted me and Chels had said she might consider voting me EoD, + some other random scumreads.
I put the odds of me dying WITHOUT claiming at like 20-30%? assuming i didnt come back for EoD which i prolly would've as wolf.

I still feel like your outing was a bit premature strategy-wise, but at least it feels (from the posts that I read so far) as if a weight has been lifted from your shoulders: Your posts seem to be more uplifted than they were D2 and D1. So if that's the case I'm glad you are doing better now!

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:02 pm
Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:01 pm If you dont have a townread on LanMisa at this stage of this game there's no helping u.
He's the towniest mf in the thread.
LanMisa is a BOY?

Spoiler: show
that's another joke ya'll

Last I checked, yeah.

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:02 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:01 pm At least we know Manny isn't 3P because wtf would the serial killer claim made up targets for Falcon and why would the protag claim town watcher and increase the chance of being blocked or nightkilled?
This will make it all the more sweeter when i win as an arsonist in couple days :hmmyes:

Lol, I love you, Manny.

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:57 pm
LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:31 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:17 pm
Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:09 pm Also town has 4 flipped dead power roles so far. And Manny is claiming to be a 5th. Is becomes increasingly more likely that any additional power we spot acting is not town but instead anti-town.
That's a good point.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:12 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:07 pm
Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:05 pm Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie. At this point there are mafia roles and third party roles that I believe should target like that. I think we shoul eliminate falcon and that they should be claiming today.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine
I'm not in the mental zone to immediately understand "Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie", can you calrify that please?
Sure. Town's power roles are listed and there are only a few that target that falcon could be. I find stuff like the bodyguard would be questionable to use on Seanzie night 1 when they were the counter to the wagon.
But it was Manny that called out falcon, right? Are they both bad, and it was a bussing kind of ploy?
If both were wolves, even if Manny ends up "bussing" a partner like that, Manny's survival would out him sooner rather than later. I also don't think that Manny would go for such a strategy when already under scrutiny/in the upper part of the POE for many players unless the wolf team was in an awfully losing spot - which it doesn't look like at all.

I could theoretically see a 3P Manny making such a move, but that requires a poisoner world (with no poisons out so far) - but I think you see the issues that crop up immediately in such a scenario.

I'm pretty sure Manny's just town here and Falcon... needs to claim, fast. And then we decide from there whether we believe that claim or not.
This is presuming we would know if someone dies of poisoning.

Unless I misunderstood how poisons work in this game poisons get announced in some way during the day? That's how I am used to playing on MU though - if you get poisoned the whole game gets informed when the flips are announced and you die at the end of the day.

Like, otherwise any poison healer would basically have to GUESS who may have been targeted specifically. And this is the second day in a row with no poison being announced - this would require a LOT of dedication from the poisoner to hold back their ability for so long.

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:47 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 1:23 pm Vote: Creature
Holy shit I forgot creature was playing.

He can definitely be wolf grrr

I just did a quick ISO of Creature's D2; tonally Creature is still leaning town lightly (being vary of me is a very town!Creature thing from experience, the Lime/Mac stance from D2 doesn't feel like something w!Creature easily does the way he did.

Not sure if I draw aggro here by saying that I could see Creature as town or 3P but not as a wolf (yet). There is some concern but I am still leaning him town.

Manny wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:47 pm On the brightside atleast i can count on Lan reading me correctly

I mean, I have enough familiarity with your playstyle, Manny. I even noticed something being off with you during Anni last year (but since I always internally friendship shield all my friends I never claimed that... ).

It's kinda funny considering that I got you completely and utterly wrong the first few (turbo) games we played together but I guess that was just some growing pain.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:36 pm
LanMisa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 3:31 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:17 pm
Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:09 pm Also town has 4 flipped dead power roles so far. And Manny is claiming to be a 5th. Is becomes increasingly more likely that any additional power we spot acting is not town but instead anti-town.
That's a good point.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:12 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:07 pm
Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:05 pm Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie. At this point there are mafia roles and third party roles that I believe should target like that. I think we shoul eliminate falcon and that they should be claiming today.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine
I'm not in the mental zone to immediately understand "Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie", can you calrify that please?
Sure. Town's power roles are listed and there are only a few that target that falcon could be. I find stuff like the bodyguard would be questionable to use on Seanzie night 1 when they were the counter to the wagon.
But it was Manny that called out falcon, right? Are they both bad, and it was a bussing kind of ploy?
If both were wolves, even if Manny ends up "bussing" a partner like that, Manny's survival would out him sooner rather than later. I also don't think that Manny would go for such a strategy when already under scrutiny/in the upper part of the POE for many players unless the wolf team was in an awfully losing spot - which it doesn't look like at all.

I could theoretically see a 3P Manny making such a move, but that requires a poisoner world (with no poisons out so far) - but I think you see the issues that crop up immediately in such a scenario.

I'm pretty sure Manny's just town here and Falcon... needs to claim, fast. And then we decide from there whether we believe that claim or not.
Jack had a good point. Falcon, IF he comes back, will certainly claim one of the four Town roles available, and it will either be true, or it will be a fakeclaim.

What do we really need to hear from him?

I mean, it's ideal if he just comes back sooner than later, but what do we need to know?

You'd be surprised how much some wolves hate lying even if given fake claims or similar things by the hosts. I haven't played with Falcon before so I can't say what type of wolfing personality Falcon has, but if Falcon is a wolf, considering Falcon's posting this game so far, this may well be the case here. Call it a personality read.

Something else to keep in mind: What exactly Falcon will claim, and that contains both the N1 as well as the N2 action. If Falcon's town we gain valuable information, and if Falcon is a wolf we may still end up with information about what Falcon will NOT tell us, or what kind of role Falcon will claim. Or, fun third option: If Falcon is a 3P Falcon claiming may be extra spicy (less so if arsonist, more so if the unknown last 3P).

I'm also a more... let's call it "by the numbers" player regarding actions and mechanics. Get all potential info, use roles conservatively, don't hero shoot, don't fakeclaim without a big reason etc. So you may disagree about this helping us in the long run but I'd rather not risk a lack of info leading us into yet another yeet we end up regretting heavily.

If Falcon claims nothing though we found our D3 yeet, no question about that.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:39 pm One kill. Hmm. That points to a not SK or poisoner, as there aren’t a lot of protects in this game. Mr house is probably an arsonist. That’s an annoying role who can hide anywhere so I guess it’s gonna be hard pressed to 3p hunt this game.

Ok, I see manny claims to have watched falcon visit Seanzie. The weirdest part to me is how only falcon seemed to have visited Seanzie, the counter wagon. Literally blows my mind. But I believe Manny’s claim, and falcon could literally be any of the roles. He could be the mafia poisoner, which would explain Seanzie’s death. Except mafia also get a factional kill so that doesn’t seem likely.

I feel like this is a set up to get Lime Coke yeeted. I don’t feel like falling on those obvious spikes

[VOTE: dunnstral] aubergine let’s start here again.

This still feels like a paranoia vote to me. I don't think that our situation is that hopeless that we need to go there yet. I also liked Dunn's entrance into D3 so far, so that's a no from me.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:42 pm Nah, I think Long Con’s a wolf.
His iso since his tunnel on me is filled with a bunch of nodding and ‘oh yeah’s’ that amount to nothing.

Like, he’s here, and cordial, and isn’t rocking the boat. Beyond that, he seems reticent to make any strong pushes on anyone.

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

I personally didn't see anything wrong with Long Con yet, I also didn't get the impression that Long Con just stuck to the tunnel all game (something I've seen noob-ish wolves do before who got townread for a tunnel: Do nothing else all game) so I am not convinced yet.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:17 pm
Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:09 pm Also town has 4 flipped dead power roles so far. And Manny is claiming to be a 5th. Is becomes increasingly more likely that any additional power we spot acting is not town but instead anti-town.
That's a good point.

Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:12 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:07 pm
Dunnstral wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:05 pm Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie. At this point there are mafia roles and third party roles that I believe should target like that. I think we shoul eliminate falcon and that they should be claiming today.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine
I'm not in the mental zone to immediately understand "Seanzie just flipped one of the few believable town roles for falcon targeting Seanzie", can you calrify that please?
Sure. Town's power roles are listed and there are only a few that target that falcon could be. I find stuff like the bodyguard would be questionable to use on Seanzie night 1 when they were the counter to the wagon.
But it was Manny that called out falcon, right? Are they both bad, and it was a bussing kind of ploy?

If both were wolves, even if Manny ends up "bussing" a partner like that, Manny's survival would out him sooner rather than later. I also don't think that Manny would go for such a strategy when already under scrutiny/in the upper part of the POE for many players unless the wolf team was in an awfully losing spot - which it doesn't look like at all.

I could theoretically see a 3P Manny making such a move, but that requires a poisoner world (with no poisons out so far) - but I think you see the issues that crop up immediately in such a scenario.

I'm pretty sure Manny's just town here and Falcon... needs to claim, fast. And then we decide from there whether we believe that claim or not.

Not sure if anyone else went for that already but I read Sean's posts and I didn't see him soft any N1 actions in any way, shape or form...which is a bit of a bummer.

Also, I finally got done with my project for my students and got a free evening to catch up and evaluate our current situation.

Here to acknowledge the NK, it's embarrassing that we yeeted two town PRs in a row... like, Sig was easily claimable/confirmable and while NANOOK couldn't self-confirm it at least would have given us some pause there...

Currently doing some schoolwork and I have a regular appointment with someone in the early afternoon so I will put my focus this phase on the evening and tomorrow (Tuesday).

I also assume that the NK situation points towards an arsonist 3P...which gives us more time for now to deal with the Mafia situation but also leaves us with a potential "half the game just died" situation if they aren't found and dealt with in time. Still think that starting to find and kill the Mafia is more important right now though.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 7:49 pm
LanMisa wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2024 7:49 pm Regardless, we really need to get more out of Epi and TSP or else we are going to lose this. We can't play a game with two unreadable low-posters and expect to win here (unless both are wolves/malign 3Ps but I'm skeptic that we got that lucky).
They won't vote out TSP.

Funnily enough, I feel like if I had voted TSP earlier this phase the same wagons would apply, but with TSP in the lead instead of NANOOK. At least it felt to me like people were just following me there.

...And I am not sure what to make of that. I'm not a leader player and my reads are average at best and it's giving me pressure. Don't think I ever played a game where others looked up to me and my reads before.

...Enough ramblings, bed time.

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