The Syndicate

Good news: I figured out the entire baddie team!

Bad news: It was after DFaraday got lynched.

And based on the what you all were saying, I figured you knew the game was over.

Good game baddies!

Scotty wrote:
Long Con wrote:
Scotty wrote:
Long Con wrote:Often, I will call my Civ reads as bad in the thread in order to protect them from nightkills.
Also this goes in direct contention with your day 3 rainbow list; where you had BWT and DFaraday painted as baddies and voted for BWT day 3 and DFaraday day 4.

So in other words, you're a liar, or at least a terrible friend.
I said "often", not "always". Can I be a terrible fiend?
What is this even in response to? Your position on everyone is still muddied, and it seems like you aren't defining anything on anyone.

Who is your number one Mafia read?

Based on his responses, I'd throw LC up there as a Wilgy teammate.

Of course, I think his entire team voted for DFaraday, and I think they're starting to think they may have a numbers advantage after tonight.

The amount of bullshit that happened with this vote is astounding.

Good thing I already know where my vote is going if I'm alive tomorrow.

I have to leave for work and have some other things I have to take care of before I go. Wilgy really sounds like a caught baddie to me at this point so that is where my vote for today is going.

DrWilgy wrote:/sigh that was the point Scotty.

If the argument was "Zebra was trying to get lynched" that would imply that she made her posts obviously scummy. I being the only player to cry scum on that post, would that make it a obviously scummy post? if a post was obviously scummy, other's would've noticed it and called it out.

Others did notice it and called it out as well. You act like you were a working as a one-man army here.

DrWilgy wrote:
Epignosis wrote:It doesn't imply that at all. I think you slipped.
Bs Epi. Your angle was that of Zebra and I being teammates. That would mean I at the minimum had some responsibility for the kill.

Not really BS. I think this is what happened:

- You and zebra faked that argument because you knew it would help at least one of you going forward. Especially once it became more likely that zebra would be a sacrificial lamb. I think she was okay with that because you both knew it would draw attention away from yourself.

- I think the missed NKs were a deliberate attempt to try and draw attention onto low posters and non-active players. Looked good at the time, but as you've probably learned from last night, it's much better to try and kill someone. It's the best way to try and cause chaos and confusion.

- Given how gleam flipped and what serge's likely role is, you're hoping to flip this lynch towards someone other than yourself. In particular, myself, LC, Epig, or SVS from the last list I've seen from you.

Most of what I've seen you post today is starting to make me feel like you're trapped and are getting desperate.

Linki: Interesting. What exactly did you read from me that made you no longer suspect me?

Scotty wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:Patternal coincidence really.

I don't believe that two players got me vs Zeebs 50% correct and happen to be on the same team.

BWT is a fine lynch idea, but I want more from him. BWT, what are your thoughts on Gleam vs Scotty now?

SVS as well... A fine lynch idea, but I want more from her. I feel like she's just been away this game and that's rather offsetting for me.
Your logic makes no sense, Wilgy, my dear peoplelicker.
I've already done the sky analogy with you, so let's try a political analogy.
Hypothetically let's say Llama thinks both Trump and Hillary would make a great candidate. Let's say MM thinks neither would make a great candidate.
One gets into office and makes a memorable presidency.

Can you believe that would happen? Because [it sounds like your mind intrinsically doesn't allow opposite viewpoints to coexist.

I want to vote you, Wilgy, if just because you're so stubborn that LC and/or I is bad based on one illogical premise.

@Wilgy: The bolded part right there is a much better explanation of where I feel you are right now. Hence why I mentioned blinders.

DrWilgy wrote:Patternal coincidence really.

I don't believe that two players got me vs Zeebs 50% correct and happen to be on the same team.

BWT is a fine lynch idea, but I want more from him. BWT, what are your thoughts on Gleam vs Scotty now?

SVS as well... A fine lynch idea, but I want more from her. I feel like she's just been away this game and that's rather offsetting for me.

I don't think it's a half and half thing though. At the time, I figured the two of you had orchestrated something. It still wouldn't surprise me but I'm more in the unsure category of that right now. Not leaning strongly one way or the other.

Well clearly I was wrong about Gleam given the result of that one. Given how Gleam flipped civ and Serge being NKed, plus the fact I have him slotted in a certain role, the basis of that role makes me think Scotty is civ for now.

I feel like you either have blinders on right now and can't see the forest for the trees with Scotty, or you're doing this intentionally. What happens today will help me form an opinion on that.

Long Con wrote:RIP Serge, sorry if my rainbow list got you killed... but I think that your likely role was what got you targeted last night.

Guys, why do you believe in Scotty?

Given the results of Day 3 and Night 3 would make me think that, unless I have serge's role pegged completely wrong.

Epignosis wrote:I don't suspect Scotty, for what it's worth.

I think this is one of the few things I've seen that I can agree with.

Well that lynch result utterly sucks. RIP Gleam.

And RIPIYWG Serge.

Wilgy, so what makes you think I'm suddenly Baddie McBaddikins?

Epignosis wrote:I voted Sorsha.

I'm curious to hear your reasoning on this.

agleaminranks wrote:
S~V~S wrote:
agleaminranks wrote:Also, since I know I'm good, BWT is a captain too.
Ok that long post may have gotten you my vote.

Sig was Barrys Mom. Sig was screaming to NOT kill a specific person, who was NOT Wilgy. What makes you think he had BTSC with Wilgy?

I am hoping to hear what if anything BWT learned in his catchup, but it will be one of you for me.
From the way I look at it, Barry is a threat to everyone in this game. He kills indiscriminately trying to work his way up the ranks. He needs to be eliminated immediately. What better way for sig to throw attention away from the real Barry when things aren't looking good for his survival than to claim someone else has to be good, knowing his identity will reveal a lot when he's lynched?

I look at Barry as more of a neutral/civvie-leaning ninja. He needs to kill to win, but he also needs a certain group dead to win. And other groups in this game need that same group dead as well. The captains are basically our mafia.

DrWilgy wrote:Hmm... I had a theory that Zebra and Sig are on opposite teams. Anyone down to test that tomorrow?
This is what bugs me. Dude has no justification for this idea whatsoever, apart from Zebra hounding sig. Several other people did too, and Wilgy is quick to assure that he didn't, in fact, advocate for lynching sig to begin with. Seems to me this would only be with prior knowledge of sig being a civilian.

Again, part of the reason why I am still suspish of Wilgy.

Wilgy also advocated for lynching Zebra the second day. Only one nightkill occurred the first night, probably a captain. Zebra was the role that could not be killed by Barry. Makes sense that Barry would've tried to target his mother's killer.

Given that no nightkill occurred the second night, there are a few possible scenarios. One scenario requires both Barry and the Captains to be AWOL, which I know shouldn't be the case, since there was only one absentee on night 2, BWT, as Wilgy noted. The second scenario involves Wilgy attempting to kill and failing and the captains missed a vote. Since there is no role that blocks nightkills, this is the only other possibility. Hence why BWT has to be a captain.

As far as Epignosis goes, I'm going on meta read. In the games I've played with Epignosis (Pikmin comes to mind), as a good guy, he lead the charge. In the most recent game where he was bad (Host Turf Wars) his style was more laid back, reactionary, just enough to indicate his presence but not enough to seriously contribute to the conversation. I have seen very little of the former Epignosis and much of the latter. In fact he's done darn near nothing in terms of serious responses or rebuttals apart from an analysis about how screwed the civilians are.
His rebuttal to my claim was a frowny emoji.
Just seems to be playing the baddie game to me.

I've seen Epig play quiet as reserved as a civ too. IMO there are other ways to read him.

I've thought about it more, and I do still think Wilgy is Barry. However, in light of the killings at night, it's likely he probably is still at the lowest rank and unable to kill the captains. I still see him as a serious problem. The question is, to vote for a captain or to vote for Barry.

If a captain is lynched, Barry has a smaller pool of people to choose and is more likely to lynch a civilian. The captains will still lynch tonight. At least one civilian will die. Possibly two.
If Barry is lynched, he has no chance of lynching any more civilians. The captains will still lynch tonight. One civilian and one very dangerous independent will be gone.

This all depends on you lynching a captain, of course, and not a civilian like me. If you lynch me, option 1 ensues, and we could lose as much as 3 civilians tonight. Your call. I'm voting for Barry, DrWilgy.

My position is

The only players who could want Barry dead so much would be the captains IMO.

Votes Gleam

*Waits on Wilgy's gleam post* :P

DrWilgy wrote:
birdwithteeth11 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'd like to thank all the players for maintaining such a civil game here so far, I love to see good sportsmanship. If anyone has any concerns at all don't hesitate to let me know. I'll continue to follow along.
Dafuq is this?
*Smacks MM in the face with a wet noodle*
*Is the wet noodle*

*Throws wet noddle down and KILL IT WITH FIRE OMG!!!!!!*

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'd like to thank all the players for maintaining such a civil game here so far, I love to see good sportsmanship. If anyone has any concerns at all don't hesitate to let me know. I'll continue to follow along.
Dafuq is this?

*Smacks MM in the face with a wet noodle*

S~V~S wrote:
birdwithteeth11 wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:Y'all seem to be ignoring the fact that I acknowledged Gleams existence, but ruled him out since he was here.

If you think I'm singling you out BWT you are correct. You were, by posting means, AFK. The only other was Epi. Based on how often you die day 1 with me, I have little to indicate how you would preform as a baddie. When you compare this to Epi (who I think I can read better based solely on game time together) you are the greater liability.

What do you think of these players BwT:
- Epi
- LC
- Scotty in the context of both "avoiding Zebra vs Wilgy" and the "guy who wants gleam murked"

I'll go over Gleam as soon as I'm out of my shower.
Epig: Neutral. Don't have a good enough feel on him yet. He seems much quieter than I would normally think he would be though.

LC: I thought the dragon thing earlier on was a bit odd. But after his explanation I feel much better about it. I'd lean civ.

Scotty: Leaning bad. I still think he could have been staying out of the thing between zebra and you because he wanted to be non-committal about it.

Also, I think a baddie not sending in a NK under any circumstances is one of the worst possible actions a baddie could take. To me, it's the baddie equivalent of what a lynch is for the civvies: the most powerful tool at one's disposal.
Do you recall ever personally missing a kill due to your active afk lifestyle, since you bring up your high level of responsibility as a baddie killer?

Not any that I actively chose to avoid. Generally anytime I miss stuff in mafia games is because: 1) My life afk is busy as heck, and 2) When that happens, sometimes I forget I'm in the middle of a mafia game.

DrWilgy wrote:Y'all seem to be ignoring the fact that I acknowledged Gleams existence, but ruled him out since he was here.

If you think I'm singling you out BWT you are correct. You were, by posting means, AFK. The only other was Epi. Based on how often you die day 1 with me, I have little to indicate how you would preform as a baddie. When you compare this to Epi (who I think I can read better based solely on game time together) you are the greater liability.

What do you think of these players BwT:
- Epi
- LC
- Scotty in the context of both "avoiding Zebra vs Wilgy" and the "guy who wants gleam murked"

I'll go over Gleam as soon as I'm out of my shower.

Epig: Neutral. Don't have a good enough feel on him yet. He seems much quieter than I would normally think he would be though.

LC: I thought the dragon thing earlier on was a bit odd. But after his explanation I feel much better about it. I'd lean civ.

Scotty: Leaning bad. I still think he could have been staying out of the thing between zebra and you because he wanted to be non-committal about it.

Also, I think a baddie not sending in a NK under any circumstances is one of the worst possible actions a baddie could take. To me, it's the baddie equivalent of what a lynch is for the civvies: the most powerful tool at one's disposal.

If I had to vote now FWIW, I would vote either gleam or Wilgy.

Alright. Here are some thoughts from my catch-up:

- SVS' perceived lateness of her Day 1 vote. Given the discussion that has happened about it, I'm inclined to not read anything into it. I don't see it as a big fish to fry.

a2thezebra wrote:
birdwithteeth11 wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:
Long Con wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:Your meta's looking pretty bad right now Wilgy, to be honest.
What do you mean by this?
I mean that from what I know about Wilgy based on my experiences with him in other games, this feels way more like his baddie game than his civ game. I'm just being honest.
Just like you were so confident with sig?
Since I was wrong once does that mean I should just stop trying to read people?

Certainly not. But your confidence here is either brave or reckless. And given how it went with sig, I would think you would be inclined to take a step back before making a judgement rather than going in guns blazing each time.

- Up to the lynch post for Day 2, Wilgy still looks bad to me just like zebra. Their whole back and forth felt...forced to me. Scotty's vote for Day 2 looks to me like someone who didn't want to commit to the Wilgy-zebra thing though.

DrWilgy wrote:@Scotty, so... Baddies lost a teammate and the person conversing with said teammate was me. Am I supposed to believe that the baddies team didn't chime in anywhere on me? It's also like I stated a odd pattern that two players gave 50% correct checks regarding both me and baddie.

Did 2 civs come up and portray this pattern? Not likely. A civ and a baddie? More likely. It's the same reason why I figured Sig and Zebra were on opposite teams. Similar patterns, but little connection.

I actually think this is a far more likely idea of what happened. It gives baddies both an opportunity to look clean by throwing a teammate under a bus, as well as backing someone who is probably a civvie for all practical purposes.

- Those Day 3 results look like it came from several of us being no-shows and very low posters. But without an actual lynch, I'm not sure how helpful those results are in determining anyone else's role.

agleaminranks wrote:Also, since I know I'm good, BWT is a captain too.

Well I know I'm good, so I find it interesting that you want to paint the target on my back to divert attention away from yourself.

I don't think it helps either of our cases given we're both being looked at in a bad light.

Given that we have several fairly inactive players, I wouldn't be surprised if the baddies are trying to lynchpin several of the quieter people to take attention off of themselves.

Oh, and gleam's long post. I feel like huge chunks of it (the gambler's fallacy stuff, the dragon thing, Zebra vs. Wilgy) feels dismissive to me of extended conversations. You can disagree with them, but to me it feels like he's saying nothing important came of it. Which I highly disagree with. I also want to hear why you think Epig is a captain and Wilgy is Barry. Because I have not seen any evidence that would lead me to believe either of those yet.

DrWilgy wrote:"I don't recall seeing you play this way before, Wilgy. You are so carefree and zany so much of the time, and since zebra's lynch, you have changed into a laser-focused player that I don't recognize. I don't know how to analyze that, can you point to a time when you have done it before? You seem like a completely different player."

That's on purpose. I like your response and believe you.

I would like more BWT-ing if possible. The more time that passes without a post from him, the more inclined I am to vote for him. I don't think the possibility of the captains not submitting a nk for the mind games should be ignored, but if BWT doesn't toss me anything to catch here, we will have problems.

So what are your thoughts on gleam then?

Weren't you the one who said that you'd analyze 2 players who argued about the sky being different colors to look for patterns? Because from what I've read so far, it looks like you are singling only one of us out.

Alright. I think I covered all my thoughts up to the present. Let the questions fly.

S~V~S wrote:Llama does not go in for that behind the scenes stuff, what you see is what you get.

So BWT who was gone for 2 days, did you learn anything in your catch up?

I did not, because I fell asleep and haven't read anymore since then. So I'm now 4 days behind instead.

Today I will for sure catch up though. I promise.

Sorry I've been gone. The last 2 days were crazy. Going to start catching up now.

a2thezebra wrote:But what motive do you have for asking someone that you feel is an over-thinker to analyze a certain area?

I'd rather have players that over-analyze and over-think. I think it's easier to catch baddie slips that way.

a2thezebra wrote:
Long Con wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:Your meta's looking pretty bad right now Wilgy, to be honest.
What do you mean by this?
I mean that from what I know about Wilgy based on my experiences with him in other games, this feels way more like his baddie game than his civ game. I'm just being honest.

Just like you were so confident with sig?

And RIP sig.

Long Con wrote:*grabs Wilgy's tongue*

*staples it to bulletin board*

Scotty wrote:
S~V~S wrote:
Serge wrote:LC and I have no BTS. We posted within seconds of each other. I was actually surprised he also came up with the Game of Thrones reference.

Actually it was about a minute. But looking at them like this, you gotta say it was weird.
Yes it do

I didn't realize they were that close to each other. Yeah that does look a bit weird.

As for the questionable part, I meant that on all the major suspects I feel pretty iffy on everyone so far. But alas, such is Day 1 sometimes.

Linki: I agree. At least sig is trying to respond. Don't feel the same from Serge or Wilgy.

S~V~S wrote:Why?

I'm assuming you're referring to me.

I don't agree with his thoughts on the gambler's fallacy thing for sure. But he made a response that made me feel like he was presuming to know how the mafia are thinking. And how a civ could presume to know that on Day 1 doesn't sit right with me. Especially when he hasn't answered my question to him about it.

Went with Wilgy. He's the most confident one I feel about in a field of questionables for me.

Trying to hold off on voting for a bit longer. Leaning towards Wilgy to try and get him to answer my question or for Serge for his lack of answering why he's prodding SVS the way he did. Especially if he hasn't played with her much.

@Serge: What made you want to get a reaction from SVS?

DrWilgy wrote:
S~V~S wrote:You first. Why?
Simply because if you are thinking about the gambler's fallacy it means you don't know who is on what team. I don't think RNG based patterns are what mafia are thinking of when the game begins either.

What does a gambler's fallacy have to do with figuring out who is on what team? Especially on Day 1?

How do you presume to know what the mafia are thinking on Day 1?

thellama73 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
S~V~S wrote:I thought we had 48 hours? That was what Llama had said in signups?

I am so sorry I missed it.
llama dun goofed.
I sure dun. I'm going to reset the poll for another day. Sorry everyone, you'll have to revote!

I will hold you personally responsible for all failures.

What the heck? I come back to check in and the poll's closed? I think llama goofed something up here since he said we had 48 hours.

As to the gambler's fallacy question, I do not think it is indicative of alignment.

Given LC's reasoning on Sorsha, I will not vote for her on Day 1.

As funny as it would be for me to real-vote DFaraday after LC's fake vote, I've been so wrong about him so many times that I will not vote him Day 1.

I would also be surprised if I self-vote Day 1. Because I never self-vote.

Long Con wrote:Why did you post that, Epi?

I think he's playing this game on a meta level unlike the rest of us.

DrWilgy wrote:I propose that we lynch BWT and Zebra, in that given order

No u

Ricochet wrote:
birdwithteeth11 wrote:I am here. I will check in periodically but my attention will be spotty until Sunday when I am back from vacation.

Linki: Haven't looked much at the roles and objectives yet, but looks like Barry has to kill a minimum of at least 3 people to have a chance to win.
Where in your count do you arrive to that number? For I count a minimum of 2 people. Or are you referencing the requirement of Sir Charles Lyndon's death? For it is not wrong to include his death as necessary to Barry's plans, still Barry does not need to directly kill him, unless he should get so lucky in his own searches.

I was counting Sir Charles Lyndon as the third, but I misread and thought Barry had to kill him. So I think you're right with it being 2.

Also here's to hoping I don't die on Day 1. Again.

Pretty please?

I am here. I will check in periodically but my attention will be spotty until Sunday when I am back from vacation.

Linki: Haven't looked much at the roles and objectives yet, but looks like Barry has to kill a minimum of at least 3 people to have a chance to win.

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