The Syndicate

thellama73 wrote:Okay, I've been thinking about the situation with Ambray and me. Here's my analysis of the possibilities.

Possibility One: We are both baddies.

Possibility Two: One of us is good and the other bad.

Possibility Three: We are both good, but one of us has received false info.

I don't think Possibility One is tenable (in fact, I know it to be false, since I know I am good), so I am going to discard that if you don't mind. Since we don't know whether Possibility Two or Three is the case, let's say it is a fifty-fifty chance. Therefore, if you lynch one of use, there is a 75% chance you will get a civvie. If the happens, the other will be implicated as a liar, and you will have little choice but to go after them the following day, regardless of whether Possibility Two or Three is actually the case.

Peruing this avenue leads to:
a 25% percent chance of lynching one baddie.
a 25% chance of lynching a civvie, followed by a baddie
and a 50% chance of lynching two civvies.

Those are not good odds. Given that there are at least two other baddies hiding among the other players, I think it makes much more sense to go after them than to come after Ambray and me, even if one of us turns out to be bad, which I doubt.

thellama73 wrote:

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:

Kate wrote:

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:Crap.

My bad. :P

Can we please lynch DP now like I wanted to the first two days?

thellama73 wrote:

S~V~S wrote:

thellama73 wrote:While I don't trust Ambray, I also don't want to be led into a bandwagon by someone I also don't really trust, so I am voting Snow Dog.

LOL, really? Then, no one can ever read me ha ha. You said you were waffly on me, now you are suspecting me enough again that you don't want to vote for the person you have said is very suspect to you cause I did?

I think Snow Dog is more likely baddie than Ambray, so I wanted to vote for him anyway. I will be happy if either one ends up getting lynched because I think both will probably flip bad, but just in case, I am hedging my bets and voting my conscience. I didn't want to be led against my instincts, and especially not by you, who I am indeed waffly on. I don't see what's so funny about that.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Oh, and rey, you said something Snow Dog said made you think you were wrong about being suspicious. I look forward to hearing you elaborate on that and your other thoughts. The last thing we need is another Russ-esque lynch tomorrow.

And whoever mentioned Ambray as being possibly suspicious or baddie, who was that? And why? I can't recall, but I can't read her currently.

Flyin' High wrote:Thanks for helping me survive last night!

Now the question is, did I hit to close to home by wondering if Snow Dog is Herobrine, or is Herobrine trying to set Snow Dog up? Or did Herobrine try to kill me for another reason?

RIPIYWG LT! I think you had to be good.

Boogs wrote:RIP LT. I'm happy the Golem keeps blocking Herobrine

What makes you think the Golem blocked Herobrine?

MovingPictures07 wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

thellama73 wrote:Now that Russ flipped good, I am more likely to think Elo is bad, which means I am also more likely to think Snow Dog is bad due to his vote for the Ship on Day 0

This is a thought. That and his poor voting record and NO U's and overreactions could point to a baddie Snow Dog. My gut says a big IDK because I've gone back and forth between times where I thought he should be looked at and other times where he seemed totally reasonably civvie to me.

You said you didn't see anything wrong with Boogs? Why?

I don't know. He seemed logical and reasonable to me. Nothing stuck out as obviously suspicious. Why DO you think he's bad?

As for Snow Dog, his posts generally strike me as coming from a civvie, but then I felt the same way during MOTU and was fooled. I think his voting record and push for SHip (I know he says he idn't push for ship, but he was clearly arguing against house which is a de facto push for ship) strike me as more significant.

I thought he was bad more so before, but then I was just now looking at his posts again and realized that one of the main reasons I thought he was baddie was because of his defense of Russ, so there throws that one. He did seem to avoid Epig a bit, but Russ wasn't easily convinced on that front either, so eh. I'm not so focused on him now for that reason.

I agree, evidence against Snow Dog is not so good. It's possible Snow Dog was a civvie without info for his ship vote though.

I want to see what FH, rey, and others have to say about all of these things as well. I'd really hate to lynch another civvie tomorrow. Part of me really wants that dang rogue as well.

Flyin' High wrote:I am feeling a bit nervous about this lynch because it seems like a nice bandwagon has formed on Russ, but for lack of a stronger candidate, I will vote for him as well.

LittleTiger wrote:I think the odds of Elo being bad are very high, so it is odd that some are saying that she probably wasn't.

S~V~S - I do know what you mean about MP seeming to be playing his baddie game, but he isn't. He is a civvie. You trying to make a case for him being bad is setting off all kinds of alarm bells, tbh.

I also agree that DP being off the poll is a good thing. Less chance of baddies using him as a reason to vote. Llama finding it odd that three people who are under suspicion for being baddies might have been a better choice is, well, quite odd.

linki with FH - yes!

thellama73 wrote:

S~V~S wrote:Maybe Aether has good reason to think he is a civ. Perhaps Aether Portal knows his game well enough to feel he needs protecting today from being an easy target, like he often is? Or perhaps to stop a few civvie votes from funneling to him and allowing the baddies to dominate the lynch that way?

i think having DP off todays poll is s good idea, we need to keep it as close as possible so we can see who does what a little more clearly without distractions. Distractions and obscurity allow for higher chances of shenanigans.

Don't get me wrong. I don't object to DP being off the poll. I wasn't going to vote for him anyway. But if I were Aether, I would take someone off the poll whom I thought was good, but also likely to get a lot of votes. Myself, for example, or Snow Dog or maybe even Russ. Of course, if Aether thinks all of us are bad, then it makes sense to remove DP I guess. I don't know that it means anything, but I thought it was worth discussing. I don't know why wanting to talk about it makes me look evil to reywaS.

thellama73 wrote:Does anyone else find it odd that the Aether Portal has apparently decided to remove DP from today's poll? DP has never ben in danger of getting a ton of votes and he has done nothing in thread to try to convince us that he is a civvie. It seems a strange choice to me.

Russtifinko wrote:Wow, a guy goes Öb vacation and suddenly he's evil! I'm busy as have only phone access (and limited, at that) until Wednesday, as I stated. You can lynch me before then if you really want, or I can mount a defense when I get home. If you do lynch me, you'll understand why I can personally guarantee either boogs or indi is bad. I'm leaning that it was indi and Herobrine did us a favor, but boogs bears a look just in case.

For the little it's worth, is it so far-fetched that I made a correct judgment? I know it's only my third game, but I'm fairly intelligent. I explained clearly the logical steps I took at the time to conclude it was Epi. I believe BWT's post was saying that in rl I'm a logical guy, so he may believe me at least.

Beyond that, make your own conclusions at least until wed. MP has, apparently, and that worked out very well for us last lynch, so I can't fault people for following him. MP, in a recent post you said you don't feel bad about sometimes being wrong in your suspicions. If I die, I hope this changes your mind some. You have unmatched power in thus game, and killing everyone you suspect may eventually lead to a win since you're experienced and good, but at the expense of some civvie lives. I was thinking maybe I could win this one for the first time, that seems unlikely now. Shame you chose to do this when I can't adequately defend. Good night all

MovingPictures07 wrote: I am not near 100% on Snow Dog either. In fact, a part of me thinks we could have two civvies in Snow Dog and llama. But... looking at the player list, I don't know if there would be two others that would make more sense; I would logically have to think at least one of those is bad. But I don't know. I suppose looking at the very beginning when Epig was just being eyed by He-Man might help. I'm curious to see if reywaS is still reading his llama and Epig theory.

thellama73 wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:Yeah, I'm really not liking these recent happenings so...

votes Epi

Well that's really descriptive of you.

It's in keeping with everything else he's said so far this game. I don't know why people are so intent on giving him a free pass when he refuses to participate.

thellama73 wrote:It seems the vote is headed towards Epignosis, so I have been thinking hard about him.

Logically, I think the baddies would have been smarter to switch a civvie to another civvie than to protect one of their own. However, I know Rob quite well and we usually have quite a good rapport. There has been no such banter during this game. There has been a cool distance between us, and it saddens me. This makes me think that he is indeed a baddie and likely his wife with him. I would be okay with a Epignosis lynch today.

thellama73 wrote:I wish I had the certainty of others in this thread. Epignosis makes a convincing case for himself, and I believe I have demonstrated how a frame job would be a better baddie strategy than a straight protection. However, if Epignosis is indeed bad, would they not have used the switch to save him? I am reading Elohcin as bad, and I think she is on a team with Rob, so that makes me suspect him as well.

SVS is a tough one. Her Captain Ahab mentality with me seems very odd, but I don't know if a baddie would expose themselves so. I keep going around and around in a very WIFOM way on her, unable to decide. I would actually prefer to lynch Elohcin today over Rob, but I'm holding my vote for now.

Kate wrote:I am going to move the post back tonight about an hour 630 is a horrible time for me as I am typically just getting home. I also want to apologize in advance as tonight's post will be brief. I'm on some heavy duty headache medicine.

Roxy wrote:@Rey - I agree with you but still why MP? He was under some suspicion as well. Why not, for example, Porcu who had no suspicions, except from llama's "random" vote.

Roxy wrote:
I do wonder, however, about this last lynch. Why it was not switched to llama. I feel like I am missing a piece to this puzzle.

Snow Dog wrote:

reywaS wrote:You just sound like you are taking events of the past and changing them however you want to fit into your narrative. I really, really think you are bad.....if not on the bad team, then you are the rouge.

linki w/ llama:

I don't admit it was hyperbole. It seemed vehement at the time. It might be a slight exageration but I have created no narrative. the evidence is all posted. And because of my personal style I cannot be a civ? Interesting mister baddie.

Ambray wrote:I'm going to assume this Rob fella people keep talking about is Epig..

thellama73 wrote:

Russtifinko wrote: Thanks for the analysis, FH! I agree that Elohcin looks bad here. I went so far as to vote llama, mainly because of his DP vote, and she did the same thing. Llama at least offered a rationale for his vote, even if it was a poor one in my opinion.

Oh, I freely acknowledge that my rationale for voting DP was poor, but I contend that the rationale for voting for anyone on Day 1 is going to be poor, as there is not enough data to go on. My vote was a guess, just as everyone else's vote was a guess. At least I didn't randomize like DP did.

I also suspect Elohcin and right now she is probably the most likely candidate for my vote (assuming I survive the night.)

Snow Dog wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

Snow Dog wrote:Going to bed now but I wasn't really here at the end i was watching The Dark Night. Amazed I wasn't lynched but glad I'm not.

Never thought MP or Epignosis were bad but hard to tell. Not convinced Llama is bad either. Had to decide between voting He Man and reywaS and chose the latter.

Snow Dog, my gut is still slightly civ on you, but things like this in the thread look really bad to me. Really, you weren't here at the end despite being the last vote? And I understand you not seeing llama or Epi as particularly bad, but it is strange to me that your top 2 candidates were both players you had had personal arguments with before. I know you were very busy with them, but none of the other discussions going on gave you any ideas whatsoever? Beware tunnel vision when things get personal.

He-Man, the vote order is on page 11, I believe. Roxy posted it. Do you have any suspicions besides Epi at the moment? I know you're convinced he's bad, and he may well be, but I'm a bit worried about tunnel vision there as well.

Linki with snowie: that's fair about your vote. I sympathize with wanting to protect yourself. Anything about rey's behavior (votes etc) ping you besides the fact that he was suspicious of you?

His vehement attack on me in defence of Roxy seemed like he was likely bad to me, but He-Man even more so. His case against Epi seems to me to be a bit crazy. Comparing his playing this game to hoew he mod's another? Come on.

Snow Dog wrote:Going to bed now but I wasn't really here at the end i was watching The Dark Night. Amazed I wasn't lynched but glad I'm not.

Never thought MP or Epignosis were bad but hard to tell. Not convinced Llama is bad either. Had to decide between voting He Man and reywaS and chose the latter.

Snow Dog wrote:Voted reywaS

indiglo wrote:

LittleTiger wrote:I am suspicious of a few people right now, but given the epic craftiness of MP as a baddie, the fact that I am pinged by his posts - my vote has to go to him. I cannot let him pull the sock wool over my eyes in yet another game. So, if it quacks like a duck, looks like a fox, wears socks, then it is probably a baddie....

vote Movingpictures07

LT, that's a good point. I'm weighing that against the fact that Epig saw his name come up and saw some votes go down for him, and remained quiet... that strikes me as quite odd, though it's possible he didn't have more computer time after doing his Host Post for MOTU. So I'm going to give it a bit longer and see what happens.



Linki w/Rey - I was going to try to avoid that conversation on account of the 7 (almost 8) year old eyes that are roving about this game.

LittleTiger wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Snow Dog wrote:

Roxy wrote:Then do it again.

I don't think so. Who do you think you are? Just vote for me and get it over with!

I was really trying to give Snowie the BOTD, but do comments like these read as baddie to anyone else or is it just me?

I'm starting to think my paranoia yesterday regarding house was misplaced and we might have found a baddie option in ship. I'll go back to studying and think on it. Thoughts from others that don't contribute to the back and forths would be welcome because I'm getting tired of reading those. No offense to any of those people, they're just clouding my thought process largely and I think they're mostly due to personality clashes and unfamiliarity with each other.

And does anyone else think that SE's vote for He-Man is weird? Not suspicious, really, but just weird.

Linki with Snowie, so are you going to talk to me or her?

I think SD sounds like a person who wants a frustrating "debate" to end. As do we all

Also, I think most people already thought Ship was a possible baddie option - hence the lengthy discussion today surrounding those Day 0 votes. The fact that you even considered that House was the baddie option definitely twerked my eye-brow (I invented a new word! ) and especially since House got the most votes, the info about the Minecraft game had been given early in Day 0 implicating House as being "safe" - so the very fact that you later tried to cast a baddie light on that option amazes me. Now I am even more amazed that you are "suddenly" coming around to House not being a baddie option...

Curiouser and curiouser.....

Twerk is not a new word.

Snow Dog wrote: Well I did admit my mistake.

And you are correct. A lot of people who voted house seemed to assume we didnt have one. That was my whole point all along. I was trying to be helpful to everyone. saying "Hey don't worry, we do have a house, don't let THAT be the reason to vote for it.

But pulling up Roxy's quote again proves she did imply that she didn't think she had a house and needed to build one to be able to stay indoors safely. And I say again, by this time house was certain to win anyway, so where do I gain if I am a mafia?

thellama73 wrote:

reywaS wrote:Does anyone else see this implication in the above sentence?

I do, but I don't think it matters.

Implication is subjective. Just because it doesn't imply something to you doesn't mean it doesn't imply something to others. I am tired of this same argument about one line of Roxy's though, because I don't think it is relevant and I don't think we are gaining any new information out of it, just annoying people.