The Syndicate

Before you lock, here is speed's post:

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:07 pm Why would they be lynching Sprit? :[ Wish I could weigh in.

I'm checking in before deadline. Busy day. On the bright side, I think my audiobook will be done before this game is! (and I can start on the other one ;P)

When Saito told us sprityo was in the lead in the large thread, [mention]speedchuck[/mention] said (and I'm paraphrasing) he wished he could go over there because sprityo shouldn't be lynched. This makes me feel much better about speed.

Oh geez, damn Lassie was lynched. That's a big loss. I am also assuming that our lynch did not happen.

Is there anyone here? What can we productively do with this time?

I sure hope everything is ok with LC and BR. It is very strange that neither of them has been by to explain why we don't have a lynch post yet.

Ok I guess I'm leaving again.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:03 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:58 am I'm back and see there's still no EOD post. Is anyone here?

Opportunism for you means to vote in the wagon wjo has most votes.
I don't trust you, sorry about that.

Imagine if I am wrong my green flip. Who is the baddie here?
If you are wolf my question is pointless.

Michelle, I did not vote in the wagon with the most votes. I voted speedchuck who had no votes at the time.

I'm not sure what you mean by "imagine if I am wrong my green flip". Do you mean what if you flip town? I did not vote for you so that's what I would expect. My guess is speed is the baddie here.

If you want to talk some things through [mention]Michelle[/mention] now would be a good time.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:06 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:28 am

G-Man wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:26 am On the few times it happened at the beginning of the game, I felt it gave the civvies an unfair advantage to analyze posts during that lag. They civ-cleard a few people based on their reactions and responses, and I think zeroed in on one of the baddies. It was an unnatural pause that gave a considerable boost to the civvies who figured out how to use it to their advantage. I felt that it wasn’t fair to the baddies to have to navigate that because they normally wouldn’t have to.

Huh, very interesting. I have never noticed that happening before. So are you saying maybe we should not post during this lag?

Posting in this time is in town advantage, why not using it? How come your sugestion comes from a towny mindset?
Townies acknoledging each other is fearsome?

Also sorry for any typo and for the confusion with a french word. It happens

I'm fine posting in this time. In fact you can see that because when I came back from the gym I came here and posted. If LC thought it was a problem either he or Black Rock would have been here by now. Nobody was here to talk to when I returned from the gym so I left again. You seem to be tunneling me.

Don't worry about the French word it is no big deal.

I guess not. I'll come back later.

I'm back and see there's still no EOD post. Is anyone here?

Well it's time for me to go to the gym anyway. I'm leaving several tabs open so it will probably look like I am here. I'll be back later this morning.

G-Man wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:26 am On the few times it happened at the beginning of the game, I felt it gave the civvies an unfair advantage to analyze posts during that lag. They civ-cleard a few people based on their reactions and responses, and I think zeroed in on one of the baddies. It was an unnatural pause that gave a considerable boost to the civvies who figured out how to use it to their advantage. I felt that it wasn’t fair to the baddies to have to navigate that because they normally wouldn’t have to.

Huh, very interesting. I have never noticed that happening before. So are you saying maybe we should not post during this lag?

G-Man wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:21 am

juliets wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:08 am Maybe it was so late by the time LC was ready to post that he decided to hold off so the new time would not be in the middle of the night.

Optimistic but also problematic. I remember during Polka Heist how civvies started analyzing the posts during the lag between end of phase and the lynch/night post. That’s why I started locking the thread during those lag times.

What was the problem with them analyzing posts?

Maybe it was so late by the time LC was ready to post that he decided to hold off so the new time would not be in the middle of the night.

G-Man wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:01 am Odd to see no host post yet. Like Tom Petty sang, the waiting is the hardest part.

Yeah I don't know what is going on. Very odd.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:32 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:32 pm I have a very specific tinfoil about Michelle. It relies on more If's than I'd like, and her recent vote change to juliets may point in another direction, but it's on my mind and I want to get it out there.

Part of the premise of this theory is that sig triggered the "inception" phase that we are currently in (his role, The Architect, is a character from Inception/Inception Mafia and he was likely to be lynched today, so it would have been his last chance to trigger this mechanic which could theoretically be hidden in the role's *secrets*), so if you don't care about that theory then feel free to skip the rest of this post. I am not convinced that it's the case, but it's a possibility that I recognize.

We're a small group of 6. None of us, as far as I'm aware, could have anticipated that the threads were going to be split up today, let alone which group we'd placed in or who we'd be placed in a group with... unless we are responsible for triggering the mechanic. If this was sig's doing, his partner (the anti-monitor) would be in on it as well. In Inception Mafia, the roster was split up mostly at random each time a new thread was created, but the mafia team had slight control over which players submerged onto each level.

Michelle entered today having already compiled a big clump of posts from speedchuck in the original thread before the split happened. Speedchuck also happens to be one of the 5 players she shares this thread with. It looks extremely convenient that, in such a small and presumably random group of players, Michelle was prepared to attack one of us before the day began. Of course, it's not impossible that this is all pure coincidence, that she had singled out speedchuck as a Player To Read during the night, and then she happened to get put into a new thread with him by sheer luck during the day. speedchuck is a viable candidate to be lynched, and if the mafia team does have some control over where players are going, he wouldn't be the worst option for a player who wants to have a scapegoat in their group. Of course, Michelle is currently voting for Juliets, which complicates things somewhat but doesn't entirely erase my initial concern. I've also had no reason to associate Michelle with any of the anti-monitor members prior to now. She voted for Radishes on an abbreviated Day 1, then Turnip Head on Day 2 when Radishes was lynched, and Mac on Day 3 when sig was the counterwagon.

None of this constitutes a read on speedchuck himself, as he could very well be a member of the other team. Without the other thread I have no direct evidence to link him there, obviously.

Wasn't the tinfoil a speculation over a town read who can turn bad if certain ideas you have may be true?
You didn't read me town from the get go, so how come you have a tinfoil?

The cyan is a grave accusation and fits convenientely with JJJs theory, indirectly pocketing him. This is well written and I have no doubt that if Sloonei is mafia I can't fight with him because I just can't construct in english a proper defense.

The orange is a supposition and I already explained why I choose to Iso Speed and why I posted the quotes raw. No one took a stance then about the content, but Juliets asked me oppinion like she is curious about it. In fact she wanted a tool to backfire at me. I was conscient about this and I waited to see if she will be objective about me or not. She wasn't and when I saw her opportunism I voted her.

The idea of me preparing an attack on Speed knowing we will be separated in a dream and with whom is contradicted by the fact the quotes are not from the complete Iso, but from the first part and this is not enough to form a solid accusation because the later posts were more game related and full of content. I didn't have time to finish the Iso so I didn't know.

Michelle, first I don't think it's at all odd that after you published all those speedchuck quotes without any opinion about them I would ask you for your opinion. You're the one who collected them, I assumed you had some kind of opinion or you wouldn't have posted them. I always ask questions like that, it is a hallmark of my style.

Second, your assertion that I wanted a tool to back fire to you is just flat wrong. What gives you than impression?

I'm going to assume when you say you were "conscient" about this you mean you were conscious of it. You say you waited to see if I would be objective and I wasn't. Why do you say that? I looked at your analysis with an open mind and I responded honestly to what I saw point by point. If you had an issue with any of my points why didn't you say you did after I posted so we could have talked it out? That's what townies do, they talk things out. Instead, you waited until now to say anything about it and you weren't specific about anything I said.

You also say I showed opportunism. Could you point out where? Opportunism about what? That word gets used a lot in mafia and half the time I don't know what people are even saying.

On the whole you seemed to be fine with me until I posted that you and speed were in my POE. Then, you started throwing accusations out there with no specifics to back them up. Meanwhile, earlier you made a long post indicating you were suspicious of speed and pointed out specifics of why. You then later said to Jay you found him suspicious, yet instead of voting for him you voted for me with no specifics. I just don't get this. Last night I said you reacted emotionally to my POE and I'm still inclined to believe that but I'm getting a little suspicious that you are trying to paint me with a broad brush instead of pinpointing what is making you suspicious. I'm requesting that you do that instead of continuing to put those broad accusations out there.

Ok guys, I gotta go to bed. The clocks go forward tonight so even though it only looks like 10:20 ish it's really 11:20 ish. See everyone in the morning (or some of you anyway).

I don't know if I'm going to make it to the reveal. It depends on how long we have to wait.

Thanks for going ahead and posting all your thoughts about people [mention]G-Man[/mention]. I understand what you are saying about me. I'm town but I get where you are coming from.

I forgot

[VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

I'm very hopeful that we don't end up really lynching anyone today.

Ok, I guess I don't need to wait and talk things over with G-Man anymore due to Jay's vote. It's close to a toss up for me on who to vote. I'm concerned that the vibe I get coming off Michelle could just be because she was busy (so hasn't been around as much in the main thread) and that she just got emotional when she saw I narrowed down my POE to she and speed.

Speed gives me real pause over his inability to explain the Mac-sig-Mac-sig movement of his vote. I think this puts him a little bit below Michelle and so I'm going to vote for him today.

I don't know why I'm waiting to talk this over with [mention]G-Man[/mention] when he thinks I'm orange.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:15 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:13 pm Looking back on my notes about speed the most bothersome thing was I didn't get a good feel for why he went back and forth twice Mac - sig - Mac - sig with his vote, per his answer to Jay. Seems like that would be memorable but I don't know that last day was such a mess.

I thought it was odd that he forgot (or claimed to forget) who he voted for yesterday, but "odd" does not necessarily equal bad. I might even be inclined to say it looks good.

Funny, I had the exact same reaction there.

Looking back on my notes about speed the most bothersome thing was I didn't get a good feel for why he went back and forth twice Mac - sig - Mac - sig with his vote, per his answer to Jay. Seems like that would be memorable but I don't know that last day was such a mess.

I think that's the fastest I've ever eaten.

Ok [mention]G-Man[/mention] let me know what you think when you finish.

[mention]G-Man[/mention] Michelle is a real mixed bag. The worst thing I see about her is after listing all these things about speed that she says are suspicious she turns around and votes me because I narrowed down my POE to her and speed. The things she said about me seemed to be just slinging things at me to see what would stick.

Other than that, I only see a couple of minor things. See what you think after finishing your read.

linki Sloonei

Also I have to stop and eat. I'll be as quick as possible.

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:25 pm Okay, why would Anti-Monitor Michelle vote for teammate Radish on Day 1 when she has no reason to? There was a perfectly good opportunity to vote for someone else. Unless she was going to change her vote but didn’t get the chance to when D1 ended early, I am skeptical of her being Anti-Monitor.

Yeah I agree G-Man.

I'm compiling a list of +/- speedchuck things and +/- Michelle things but it is laborious and isn't helping me decide between them. In fact it's serving to confuse me more. I may just stop and read the rest of the thread and make an overall judgement. This is very difficult. Maybe I have this wrong.

Well Saito didn't answer my questions so it could be they are just messing with us. We could try asking for something if we could think of something reasonable and see if they provide it.

Since there is not much happening I am going to go ahead and take a shower so I won't have to do it as we draw closer to EOD. I need to place a vote so I'll ponder while I'm gone. This is a hard decision, I'm jealous of the group that got sig in it.

Unfortunately I have to step away from the thread and call my mother.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:56 pm Like, does “can you reproduce Macdougall’s entire post history?” work as a request?

Yeah that's why I asked them if they could produce posts. They haven't answered yet.

[mention]Sloonei[/mention] re: your Michelle post, I agree that it could be the case that she knew she would be here with speedchuck and so stockpiled those posts but wouldn't she have captured them all if that was true? It does make me uneasy though.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:41 pm Well this is a strange new development. Is Saito able to give us more information about their function here?

Also should we trust him?

I think I would trust them to give us something factual. One of us is likely to remember once reminded of something factual. What could we have them provide? What do we need the most?

Saito wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:34 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:28 pm

Saito wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:23 pm Is there something you've forgotten? Something you would like remembered?

Can you give us information from the main thread?

Only once.

Once for the whole thread or once for each of us? Can you get us someone's post record, i.e., the posts they made in the game up to the split?

[mention]Sloonei[/mention] are you seeing this? They can provide us with info from the thread!

Saito wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:23 pm Is there something you've forgotten? Something you would like remembered?

Can you give us information from the main thread?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:26 pm Does anyone care about my Michelle theory?
What the hell is Saito puppet doing here?

Yes I care and I am wondering the same about the puppet. Let me take another look at your Michelle case and I'll comment.

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] I would appreciate anything you can remind me of from the main thread that you feel like I should remember as town. [mention]Michelle[/mention] same for you - what should I be remembering that would say "oh yeah, she is town".

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:14 am

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:09 am I have been town reading Jay and Sloonei and have vacillated on G-Man though my last read in the thread was that he is town (due to those seemingly genuine posts about lynching him to lure some scum in). That leaves Michelle and speed who I did not have a strong read on and hadn't done their ISOs. I had vague feelings about them but that isn't helpful now. So I guess my decision will be between the two of them unless something happens to change my perspective today.

I'm off to work now and will probably be there until mid to late afternoon. I'll catch up as soon as I get home.

Isn't convenient that you are oscilating between the only 2 who have votes until now? How is this a town!Juliets thought, when you have no infos and you don't ask significant things to us.
You are non committal and I expect you to be scum, I already noticed something is wrong about your votes, and now your behaviour is lacking town presence.

You are affraid to upset both JJJ amd Sloonei with suspicions, GMan is obviously contributing with useful things and you choose me saying you have "vague feelings" about me (it's me you're talking about, not a new unknown player) and Speed with whom I didn't finish the convo.
Your tone is slightly defesive, like you have no choice but to accuse one of us. You are a baddie in this game I am affraid.
[VOTE: Juliets] aubergine

Michelle, what I am doing is establishing a POE. I had a suspicion of Sloonei earlier in the game but then I did a lot of work to look at his posts and came away thinking he is probably not scum. His posts since that time have read towny to me including his posts in this thread. I have vacillated on G-Man first thinking he was good and had been cursed, then thinking he wasn't cursed (which he wasn't) and was just avoiding any meaningful interactions and suspicions, and then finally believing he was good again because of the genuiness of his posts about using himself as a decoy vote to lure scum. I haven't seen anything in this thread that causes me to think otherwise. You even said he looks towny. Finally, I haven't seen anything with Jay the whole game that would cause me to read him as bad. He did a mountain of work on the interaction analyses which I don't think he would have done if he were bad and he has consistently made good posts.

You and speedchuck have been more in the background for me. I made a comment and had a slight suspicion of you because your activity has been lower and not of the same caliber as when you are a civ. I can't remember anything you have posted that makes me read you as civ. With speed the only thing I can remember is he voted for sig when I did and he has been very busy because he now has two jobs and the second job is booming. Mostly he is in my POE because of an absence of information from the main thread. That is, he hasn't done anything that I can remember that makes me say "oh yeah, he is town". In addition, in this thread I agree with Jay that his explanation for going back and forth twice with his votes on Mac and sig doesn't really explain what caused that to happen (Jay used better words than I did).

You say I am afraid to upset Sloonei and Jay. Why would I be afraid of that any more than upsetting you and speedchuck? That comment doesn't make sense to me. And I'm not sure what you mean by you didn't finish the conversation with speed and why that would have any bearing on my POE. Finally, you say I'm defensive. I'm going to have to ask you to point out specifically what you saw that leads you to believe that. I have not been defensive at all in this thread - there has been nothing to be defensive about.

I have been town reading Jay and Sloonei and have vacillated on G-Man though my last read in the thread was that he is town (due to those seemingly genuine posts about lynching him to lure some scum in). That leaves Michelle and speed who I did not have a strong read on and hadn't done their ISOs. I had vague feelings about them but that isn't helpful now. So I guess my decision will be between the two of them unless something happens to change my perspective today.

I'm off to work now and will probably be there until mid to late afternoon. I'll catch up as soon as I get home.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:03 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:02 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:49 am In short my answer explained you (this was my intention anyway) that my post wasn't a shade.

I want to visit this assertion, that your post "wasn't a shade". I reviewed each of the comments you made about speedchuck's posts and reduced them to quick phrases or blurbs, with color coding to indicate the feelings you conveyed as I interpret them:

- NAI or mafia
- "worrisome" -- seems negative
- NAI "town read" from speed or mafia
- NAI "nothing" or mafia, "-1 in context"
- "suspicious chain" -- clearly negative
- "word salad" -- not positive at best
- speed's vote is "convenient" -- seems negative
- "rubs me the wrong way" / NAI
- if mafia, aligned with Radish -- I won't color this one since it's conditional

How is this not shade?

What if is a suspicion?

Shade to me is when you imply someone is bad without coming out and stating your belief that they are bad. Maybe it's a distinction without a difference or I am not giving a good definition of "shade". At any rate what I took away from the post is that you are suspicious of speed so maybe it doesn't matter whether it's called "shade" or not.

Thanks [mention]Michelle[/mention] -

Oh [mention]G-Man[/mention] now that you say that I do remember you saying in the thread you didn't want to listen to him rant for another day. Thanks for your response.

Also, for everyone I am struggling to keep my eyes open so this is probably my last post tonight. Tomorrow I have to be at work early so not sure if I'll be on in the morning or not. I will try to be. I have to work most of the day and should be back by late afternoon.

[mention]G-Man[/mention], sorry if you answered this in the main thread, I just don't remember it. What made you change your vote toward the end of EOD from sig to Mac?

Michelle wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:44 pm morning at 4 :40 am, I will try to answer at pings

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:05 pm I'd like to see @Michelle respond to that. I'd also like it if she could tell us why she specifically had all those speedchuck posts saved and ready to go.

I said I wanted to Iso him and I had them saved in a notebook app on phone . I wanted to reread day 1 interactions after the first wolf flips and that joke post rang a bell. and made me Iso Speee.I didn't finish the Iso but I posted them here as a piece of the thread we can't see now. My view can be wrong because I don't know him but who played with him can see what I can't.

I didn't have the Iso ready to go. I had just these posts. I know Speed posted a lot after.

Michelle this also answered my questions regarding whether you had collected these posts as part of an ISO that you didn't finish. Thanks -

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:33 pm
<snip>

I suspected both, and it was increasingly likely they were both scum, so I went by mechanical merit. Lynching Mac first to confirm sigslip was apparently not as important as removing a possible -2 vote scumman early. I didn't care all that much between the two, as their scumminess pointed to each other.

speed, what does the last sentence mean, "their scumminess pointed to each other"?

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] I do see as I look back where you said he went back and forth twice, I just missed that in my read-through.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:33 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:17 pm @JaggedJimmyJay you voted speedchuck early on but I didn't see your reasoning. Is it because of the back and forth voting between Mac and sig or is there more there?

When I reviewed people's treatment of Mac in the original thread, I felt speedchuck was a decent teammate prospect. The primary driver of that interpretation was Day 3, which I have touched on a bit in this thread. speedchuck shuffled his vote between sig and Mac before ending the day on sig (I believe the order was Mac - sig - Mac - sig). Combining that motion with the bland mechanistic basis for chuck's explanations for his votes left a crummy product.

His answers to these points in this thread are leaving me feeling nothing.

I see, I didn't realize he went back and forth twice. I'll look at his explanation again with that in mind. Thanks for the explanation.

linki, yes I agree with your observation about G-Man.