The Syndicate

Bass_the_Clever wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:

juliets wrote:TH, regarding your wanting to return to discussion on MM, can you link to your case on him? Or just maybe mention the major points about him and that will jar my memory.

Click this post and then keep reading down the page. Just read and absorb, form your own opinion, then come back to my analysis here...



Eventually MM makes a list of Kira suspects that fit a profile he seemed to have created on the fly... and until today, after being prompted by Bea herself to do so, he hasn't voted for or pursued any of those suspects. The question I ask myself is, is he even interested in catching Kira? The evidence says no.

I would love to point to the other times I tried to engage with MM in the same way as I did above, but after that exchange he tended to outright ignore my direct questions to him, skulking away into the shadows, only to accuse me yesterday of not bringing up any points about him. When I proved him wrong on that, he scurried back into the shadows once again. Hah!

I agree with a lot of stuff thats being talked about because of this post. I find it odd that MM had all those suspects and didn't really question any of them or vote any till pressed to. I will be voting MM today because of this.

Sorrry I just got off the road and realized I had to vote so now I'm going to bed . good night.

Bass_the_Clever wrote:

boo wrote:

Bass_the_Clever wrote:I not sure who to vote for yet. I'm going to think about it, and come back to vote later.

Does anyone else find it strange that Made forgot the one of the Sympathizers was dead? It almost makes me wonder if he could be Yotsuba and their secret win condition isn't effected by having the Sympathizers dead.

Ok, well. I did a read of Bass now.

Of 50 posts, this is the only one I want to quote, but first, most of his posts are:
1) Telling us he's getting caught up.
2) Telling us he has caught up.
3) Saying goodbye to the person who gets killed.
4) Telling us he's currently busy and well get caught up later.
5) Quoting people and offering a one or two sentence thought.
6) Quoting people he agrees with and using their reason to vote.
7) Voting without quoting, and just vaguely saying he agrees with the suspicion.

So, bass, questions for you:
1) Can you name the 3 people your most suspicious of and think you will vote for today.
2) Without quoting people, can you give reasons why you think those 3 people are the most suspicious? And I do mean reasons, not just saying Person A, Person B, and Person C, because they're suspicious.
3) We know you were right that Made was Yotsuba. Do you still think the reason Made seemed to have forgot a Sympathizer was dead was because it wasn't important to his win condition?

Well my top three are
1. TH
2. MM
3. The llama

I might be wrong or missed somethings in the thread because of how crazy RL has been and how crazy this game has been but those are the top 3.

The reason for the top two is because of them surviving the lynches. I know their are roles that aren't kiras that can survive but why should we just give them a free pass because of that.

The llama because he asked a question that made me raise my eye brow. he asked who would kill S~V~S and LC. It made me raise my brow because I asked almost the same question in zelda mafia only I asked, who would kill S~V~S and MP? The answer was lama so I think its possible that he would take those players out early here.

With made I think it might make sense because we don't know what their win conditions are.

Turnip Head wrote:That's a lovely story DH. What do you think it all means?

Epignosis wrote:Bass_the_Clever
Black Rock
boo
Boomslang
DharmaHelper
DisgruntledPorcupine
Epignosis
FZ.
juliets
Matahari
Metalmarsh89
Ricochet
Spacedaisy
thellama73
Turnip Head
zeek

Matahari wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:Some cursory thoughts while I continue to read:

Boo Vs. ...Well, Kinda Everybody? - I've been reading boo as genuine thus far, even if he was wrong about Bea. Boo has always struck me as the sort of player to be very confident (to a fault perhaps) in his suspects. His tunnel vision is perhaps he most obvious flaw, and I'm interested to see how his suspicions develop.

MM vs. TH - They've both survived lynches, so that narrows down who they could be quite considerably. Of the two, I'm most confident in trusting TH for now, as I'm seeing a more involved play style from him rather than from MM, whose posts of late have rung pretty false to me. MM does not seem interested in defending himself or seeking out mafia, whereas at least TH has been making a show of looking for Kiras and helping detectives. A little voice in the back of my head is stuck wondering though if perhaps this back-and-forth love story they have going is designed to make us trust one or the other. Perhaps they are two unlynchables on the same team going after each other in an effort to help themselves get their win conditions accomplished.

Matahari - I'm getting odd vibes from her and might do a specific re-read of her. I'm wondering Mata, why is it you trust me?

Juliets - I'm noticing a lot of "can you please post the case on X again I seem to have forgotten it." In regards to my own experience, these posts from JC are often in regards to conversations we've already had, and cases that she has commented on. Pingy, but nothing I would stick a vote on just yet.

FZ. - I will be re-reading her shortly.

Black Rock - Not sold on her being bad as much as I was previously. Mostly due to the clusterfuck bringing more interesting suspects to light

Boomslang - That vote for bea was the absolute most noteworthy thing from him I can remember all game.

If my theory that TH And MM are Shinigami on the same team is true, Then the MM voters are worth a look.

Two reasons, although I'm aware that you could fool me. First is the gut thing, I've looked for certain tells that I associate with your baddie game. I've seen none, if I do, I would put you back in the gray or baddie section. As I've explained earlier, I am not putting total faith in the gut stuff yet, because ppl change up their game over time. But the second thing was something you posted earlier in the game, that I don't think you would have posted if you were bad.

If you say or do anything that sounds false to me, I would question it. It just hasn't happened yet.

Epignosis wrote:

FZ. wrote:I've been thinking that maybe some of the baddies tactics is to push players really until they feel frustrated and they start outing themselves by hinting. It says Light has to know who some of the detectives are in order to kill them. I'm not sure exactly how baddies can do that without taking the eye deal, so maybe they are trying to get people to out themselves and then kill them during the night.
Who would fit that description? I can think of a few very obvious ones

Someone tell me if my interpretation of what I've read this morning is amiss:

The bad guys are using a tactic in which they frustrate the detectives so much that the detectives elect to out themselves. Knowing this, FZ. chooses to out herself as an unlynchable detective (on Day 8, not before), thus playing right in the Mafia's hands. Instead of absorbing the lynch and keeping a question mark still there, FZ. believed the smartest thing to do is role claim.

No...that doesn't ring true.

FZ. wrote:RIP Bea

Before I go into the number thing, Epi, I want to ask you a question. Do you think Russ would have voted for a player who couldn't be lynched? If not, if you lynch me and I don't die, would that convince you that if he did in fact role check me, he got a false role?

Would Russ vote for Misa if he thought she still had her death note?

Epignosis wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

Epignosis wrote:If I'm understanding your question correctly, DH, there was only a 12% chance it was an incorrect read AND a Mafia read.

What I'm trying to articulate is what is your estimation of the likelyhood that Russ failed his rolecheck (producing an incorrect result) that lead him to think FZ. was bad? Versus the likelyhood that it was a successful check that produced the same result (FZ as a baddie role)?

12% vs. 50%

And I'm not a math guy, but Russ is.

Epignosis wrote:If I'm understanding your question correctly, DH, there was only a 12% chance it was an incorrect read AND a Mafia read.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Self-voting is a risky behavior and not recommended when playing mafia, because the goal is to lynch baddies. Since you have insight on your own role, you must know you are a baddie, so I will totes mcgoats go along with your vote bea.

Epignosis wrote:By "bad read" do you mean "Mafia read?"

bea wrote:

Black Rock wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:Voted for Black Rock.

Shocking. You are very stubborn man. I thought I gave you enough to slap you in the face. Obviously you're more of the type that needs it spelled out for you. Too bad it's against the rules.

Bea, is there a good reason besides you want to prove yourself?

nope. no good reason at all to vote me unless you think I am lying. I'm totes doing this to prove a point.

I'm trying to lay this to rest once and for all. And I'm willing to die to do it.

If you don't believe that what I've said or how I've played in this game is true and working to trying to help the detectives win then please vote me.

I gave you a new reason to vote me too - I voted myself. I know I'm a detective so clearly I'm working to not further the dective's win but to prove to boo he's flat out wrong about me. And if he's flat out wrong about me, he should see my role and think about why I have been skectched out by his going after the people he has.

Turnip Head wrote:What does everyone else think of Metalmarsh?

thellama73 wrote:I step away for one day and you guys are trying to lynch bra? Don't make such a mistake

Boomslang wrote:Bea, when you vote for yourself, you're either giving up on the game, in which case you should be lynched, or you're trying a massive WIFOM with secret win conditions, which is not a civ move. This is a no-brainer for me. *votes bea*

Spacedaisy wrote:Ok today has gotten weird real fast.

bea wrote:since you are here -does this change your perspective of any players? (this is a question everyone is free to answer btw)

juliets wrote:DH seems like its been a long time since we talked about Black Rock. Can you explain the reason? I've now got her in my head in the other game.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Reiji Namikawa's additional secrets have been solved and revealed.

FZ. wrote:Also, DH, a few days back, you voted Epi and was sure he was bad. Do you still maintain that notion?

linki: If he needed me dead, it's not because I'm bad. Don't forget that if he did role check me out of everyone (why not do Made if he was relatively trusting me?), he had 50% chance of getting something else, so this "facts" you seem to be using to make me look bad, are rubbish.

As for the singing and dancing, you don't have to believe me, because obviously, you don't want to, but I skipped through the whole NK post to the end. I just saw a lot of green which looked like something. So if you're referring to that, I have no idea what singing and dancing he had to do.

And if your gut tells you something, you should obviously ignore it, because god forbid we use facts. You're such and incredible baddie hunter that you don't need facts. You've got the whole game pinned down

FZ. wrote:Back to the puzzle, it's really important that we solve it

FZ. wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

FZ. wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:I don't know if I'm a fan of seeing the extreme emotional response as a civ thing. I probably get even more frustrated when I'm caught as a baddie (although I try not to show it when that happens ). Of course I can't compare others to myself, but I don't know if I could get behind that.

Would you cuss anyone out if you were a baddie?

I wouldn't. I normally wouldn't do it anyway. But DH, if that's the only reason you think I'm a civ, than it makes me feel bad.

I didn't say it was the only reason, I don't think. It is however the most compelling one.

I get that. I do that too, and like I said, when Epi was getting all the attention back in the beginning of the game, his frustration seemed genuine to me, so I backed off. I don't think he's a Kira.

What do you think about Boo? Does he always play like this? Attacking one minute, and then sitting back for a while the other?

FZ. wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:I don't know if I'm a fan of seeing the extreme emotional response as a civ thing. I probably get even more frustrated when I'm caught as a baddie (although I try not to show it when that happens ). Of course I can't compare others to myself, but I don't know if I could get behind that.

Would you cuss anyone out if you were a baddie?

I wouldn't. I normally wouldn't do it anyway. But DH, if that's the only reason you think I'm a civ, than it makes me feel bad.

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:I don't know if I'm a fan of seeing the extreme emotional response as a civ thing. I probably get even more frustrated when I'm caught as a baddie (although I try not to show it when that happens ). Of course I can't compare others to myself, but I don't know if I could get behind that.

DharmaHelper wrote:

Ricochet wrote:What do you make of this lynch's timing, DH? Did Kira plan Russ' death all along and it was simply a coincidence that L also checked up on him?

I think Kira has adapted the strategy of using regular timed kills in order to prevent analysis of his kill times.

Ricochet wrote:What do you make of this lynch's timing, DH? Did Kira plan Russ' death all along and it was simply a coincidence that L also checked up on him?

Now, now- that's framing things out of context.

DH, I can't ignore the fact that you are making a ton of assumptions about Kira's actions and then trying to direct people to players who fit that bill in your opinion. But as Epi has pointed out, you ignore your own descriptions in some cases, such as with FZ. You've decided she is good, so despite the fact that she fits your description better than anyone else, you are pushing for anyone but her.