The Syndicate

MovingPictures07 wrote:
DFaraday wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:I'd like to ask the lemons or DF why they didn't kill the obvious civs? I was expecting to die since Made got lynched.
For awhile I was just taking out people whom I felt might start ushing for my lynch (MP, then Dom). Then I decided that since I didn't have my protection anymore, I would try to take out the baddie team so they couldn't NK me.
So THAT'S why you killed me.

You were talking about me too much for your own good.

I'm a little surprised nobody made that connection though.

Snow Dog wrote:I'd like to ask the lemons or DF why they didn't kill the obvious civs? I was expecting to die since Made got lynched.

For awhile I was just taking out people whom I felt might start ushing for my lynch (MP, then Dom). Then I decided that since I didn't have my protection anymore, I would try to take out the baddie team so they couldn't NK me.

Long Con wrote:
DFaraday wrote:
Long Con wrote:Also bad luck for both of us that we targeted DFaraday on Night 1, not only did we waste a kill, we wasted an extra Chick Hicks lynch.
Yeah, what was up with that? You know I'm mostly irrelevant in the early game.
I was literally irrelevant in the early game because I was preoccupied with Monopoly Mafia, and pretty RL busy to boot. I received a PM with our team's decisions for the night, with the "unless LC disagrees, go with this." So I'm not actually sure why.

MR, you've got some 'splaining to do!

Long Con wrote:Also bad luck for both of us that we targeted DFaraday on Night 1, not only did we waste a kill, we wasted an extra Chick Hicks lynch.

Yeah, what was up with that? You know I'm mostly irrelevant in the early game.

Well played, everyone!

Long Con wrote: I think it's better to make it a tie between MetalMarsh and DFaraday, actually. As someone said, Tink has been wrong before. If we make it a tie, then whichever one of them is Chick would force the tie the other way, and we can be sure who Chick is and lynch that person tomorrow.

Unless, of course, you're Chick.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
DFaraday wrote:Voting MM because I know I'm civ, and there's still a chance he's not.
I thought you wanted to throw suspicion on FZ. Why vote me?

Because I don't want to die and you're the only other viable lynch candidate.

Also I do think you might be bad.

Voting MM because I know I'm civ, and there's still a chance he's not.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I'm a civ and most certainly not self-voting. Snow Dog is civ. FZ is civ. BR is civ. So that narrows it down to you and DF.

Who would you rather I voted for?

You're acting as if everyone except LC and I have been confirmed civ, which is not true. You were indeed killed by the Lemons, but the baddies are playing a risky game, it seems. It's not outside the realm of possibility that you are, in fact, a Lemon.

And I still haven't seen anyone state why FZ is likely civ. She's been skating by pretty unexamined for most of the game.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I'm voting DF for now.

Why is Snow Dog not drawing suspicion from anyone? Is he confirmed civ for some reason that I missed.

The main reason is that Snowy was insistent that Made was civ, so people think he was probably Made's BTSC partner.

EBWOP: A lot happened while I let this post sit here.

Wow, this night ended early. I was just coming in to say that I thought we should look more at Tink today.

As it stands right now, I believe there are two baddies left. BR is pretty likely to be Lizzy, so I feel pretty good about her, but the fact that there may have been a recruit does make me think we should look at the seemingly confirmed civvies' voting records as well. The Night Post said Miles, but I'm wondering if there was a recruit.

Hosts: Are the Lemon's kills written as including the character whose player is doing the kill, or is that part done for storytelling effect?

FZ. wrote:
DFaraday wrote:
FZ. wrote: DF not voting for Splints is weird. If he's the other lemon, it makes sense. If he's Chicks, why not vote with the civvies to look good? Either way, he's not looking good at this point.
I don't follow the second half of your reasoning. You're saying if I were Chick, I would vote for Splints, but since I didn't vote for Splints, I'm looking more like Chick?

I voted FZ because I found her more suspicious than Splints, as I stated earlier. If voting my suspicions instead of bandwagoning is suspicious, so be it. Also, SD, when there are only 8 players left, I don't think any vote can be said to be a "no vote".
What I meant is, even though I don't understand the second part, I find you suspicious. We've just seen Splints, cast the deciding vote on a teammate's lynch, so the fact that I would expect someone as Chicks to vote with the civvies, means nothing. Moreover, if Chicks really thought Splints was bad and the last one of them, I'm not sure he would have wanted her out at that point (unless he gets their kills, which is a question I asked and got no answer for)

If I were an SK, I'd want to take out the bad team, if for no other reason than they wouldn't be able to NK me. Since a few people missed the vote, I'm not sure if Chick even voted anyway.

MM, I think FZ would make more sense as Chick than a Lemon, given her throw-everything-at-the-wall style and the fact that she voted early for Splints. Then again, the Lemons' voting patterns have been pretty weird anyway.

FZ. wrote: DF not voting for Splints is weird. If he's the other lemon, it makes sense. If he's Chicks, why not vote with the civvies to look good? Either way, he's not looking good at this point.

I don't follow the second half of your reasoning. You're saying if I were Chick, I would vote for Splints, but since I didn't vote for Splints, I'm looking more like Chick?

I voted FZ because I found her more suspicious than Splints, as I stated earlier. If voting my suspicions instead of bandwagoning is suspicious, so be it. Also, SD, when there are only 8 players left, I don't think any vote can be said to be a "no vote".

Good call, Splints voters! But Epi didn't say that the Lemons were eliminated, so I'd guess we've still got Chick and one Lemon to go.

I'm voting FZ for now and hoping I will make it back before the poll closes.

FZ. wrote:
DFaraday wrote:
FZ. wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
FZ. wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:I'm not sure it's possible that fingersplints is bad. Well it is possible. Let's see if I can explain this.

Original Splints got killed by Chick. Now if she was bad, would she be asked to replace Kate? Well yes she would obviously, but only if Kate was also bad on the same team.
I'm not sure I follow. Splints could have been good in her first round. She could be bad now. It doesn't matter. If she was bad last round, the only way she could replace Kate is if she's bad now too. So I see nothing preventing her from being a baddie now
Your right. I was talking absolute rubbish, or garbage as you say in the States.
I'm not from the States so it doesn't matter to me

Right now, the two people that I'm most concerned about are Splints and DF.
DF, who do you think is a lemon, and why?
Same question for Splints.

And since the LC theory doesn't hold water in my opinion, if you're going to say LC, please address my thoughts on why he is least likely to be a lemon
I do agree that Splints is a possibility, but I also am unclear about you, FZ. Is there a compelling reason to believe that you are civvie?
So you're suspicion of LC has vanished?
And no, no compelling reason. Not my job to prove I'm a civ. If you think I'm not, then by all means, convince the rest. You're running out of options. It was only natural that you'll get to me

I don't have a unified case per se on you, but I get the distinct impression that you've been jumping all over the place with your suspicions lately, to the point where I find it hard to pin down your thoughts on anything. Since Night 8 you have:

Gone from questioning others for suspecting me to placing me at the top of your list with little discernible reason.
Gone from thinking Splints is likely not on MR's team to thinking she is either the last Lemon or Chick.
Shifted from suspecting Tink to taking her civvieness for granted.

The voting record doesn't say much about you either way, I think, so I'd actually rate you more likely to be a lemon than Splints, since at least she cast the deciding vote.

EBWOP: Well, better her than me.

FZ. wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
FZ. wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:I'm not sure it's possible that fingersplints is bad. Well it is possible. Let's see if I can explain this.

Original Splints got killed by Chick. Now if she was bad, would she be asked to replace Kate? Well yes she would obviously, but only if Kate was also bad on the same team.
I'm not sure I follow. Splints could have been good in her first round. She could be bad now. It doesn't matter. If she was bad last round, the only way she could replace Kate is if she's bad now too. So I see nothing preventing her from being a baddie now
Your right. I was talking absolute rubbish, or garbage as you say in the States.
I'm not from the States so it doesn't matter to me

Right now, the two people that I'm most concerned about are Splints and DF.
DF, who do you think is a lemon, and why?
Same question for Splints.

And since the LC theory doesn't hold water in my opinion, if you're going to say LC, please address my thoughts on why he is least likely to be a lemon

I do agree that Splints is a possibility, but I also am unclear about you, FZ. Is there a compelling reason to believe that you are civvie?

Snow Dog wrote:addendum.

There have been two ties and DF voted for the one that was lynched both times.

That's a bit disingenuous, considering that I was up for lynching in one of those ties. Of course I didn't vote for myself.

Ugh, we're starting the day over? Although if BR is Lizzy, I guess it's a good thing. I do feel a bit better about her now.

Long Con wrote:I'm assuming MP was bad because I believe that the case I made against him and Dom was accurate. I don't expect you to agree with anything I said, DF, I understand.

I know that Ambray was not the Seemer. I'm only "suddenly SURE" insomuch as her death was "sudden". When I saw her role in the lynch, there was a "sudden" and easy logical connection I made that told me she's definitely Lightning McQueen.

Ok, DF, if you want it to be MP that survived the Night 1 kill, then how did he do it? He wasn't McQueen and he wasn't Chick Hicks - why don't YOU come up with a theory that's more believable? I'm just going with what's most likely. There's a few secrets in the roles, and the one that far outweighs the others for having a NK-survive is Chick, and MP wasn't Chick. You were targeted, and you survived, because you are Chick Hicks. Simplest explanation was that you are Lightning McQueen, but that was proven false, so next most likely is you are Chick.

I'm still not sold on the MP case, tbh.

Do you know if the Seemer is dead then? That would seem to be the most conclusive proof that she is really Lightning.

I see a few simple solutions just by looking over the roles: Sarge could have blocked the killer, Mater could have protected me or MP, or British Intel could have some secret protection going on. Things are not as clear cut as you would make it seem.

And since I'm obviously not voting myself, I will *vote LC*

Long Con wrote:I have not been contacted by Sally at all, so I would imagine she's been dead for a while... but again, if anyone can suggest otherwise, that would be a welcome thing to hear.

My vote will go to DFaraday today, for being Chick Hicks. Here's why:

- If you assume (as I do) that MP07 was a baddie, then it was DF who was targeted, and survived, on Night 1.
- I figured that meant he's Lightning McQueen, and that's why I have said that I trust him for a while now.
- Ambray was just lynched as Lightning McQueen, so DF survived for some other reason. I think that Chick Hicks can survive a nightkill in his Secret, and that's hat happened on Night 1.

Hang on LC, let me try to get this in order. You were confident that I was Lightning, then when Ambray came back as Lightning, you are suddenly SURE that she was the real Lightning and not the seemer? And on top of that, you're now very confident that I'm Chick? Quite the turn around you've had here with little explanation.

I'm thinking Chick is probably BR, or less likely, Splints. And Tink might be on to something about LC, in which case the last lynch would have been two members of the same team up for lynching.

Also, why are you assuming that MP was bad?

FZ. wrote: I was under the assumption that the two civs who could communicate are Made and Snow, but Simon vouched for Tink. Who are the two townies with BTSC?

Flo and Ramone had BTSC, so Occam's Razor suggests that Snowy is probably Ramone. But British Intel also have BTSC, and seem to basically be civ.

My analysis of the past couple of lynches is baffling, to say the least.

Tink voted for MR, and Simon, who was apparently civ, vouched for her, so I think Tink is alright.

MM replaced BWT, who was killed by Grem and then rezzed, so he's almost certainly not part of the baddie team. It looks like Chick killed while BWT was dead, so MM can't be him either.

Splints cast the deciding vote on MR, so she's almost certainly not on the bad team.

BR voted for MR, so she has that in her favor. Otherwise I have no real opinion on BR.

Snowy voted for LC, then in the most recent lynch voted Ambray, then abruptly switched back to me. I know he seems to have had a connection to Made, but his recent behavior does give me pause.

FZ is one I need to look at in the morning, when I'm more fully energized.

LC I'm pretty sure is not on the bad team (although if he is then I'd need to rethink everything I've done up til now).

Long Con wrote:See ya in the next life, brotha Dom.

DFaraday, what do you think of Ambray's lynch?

Well, I was totally wrong about Ambray, and I wouldn't necessarily find anyone suspicious for voting Ambray per se, since imo there was a reasonable basis for suspecting her. But I think if there were any late voters for Ambray who also voted for you last time around, we'll be most likely to find a baddie who was just latching on to the most prominent case.

Wow, RIP Ambray. I was totally offbase about you.

Tink wrote:I think DFaraday could be Chick Hicks.

I'm not. Why do you think that?

SoFi, I'm sorry to hear it.

The fact is that the MR lynch was very close all the way through. I definitely don't see any of MR's teammates voting for him in such a scenario, unless LC is also part of their team, which I doubt. Ambray's vote switch still feels like a save to me.

We saw Simon vouch for Tink, and unless Simon was Chick, he must have been civ, so I'm feeling a bit better about her. I also believe Snowy to be civ, considering Made's role. As it stands, Ambray appears the most likely to be MR's teammate. *Votes Ambray*

Simon wrote:I know how bad guys have to kill the kid because he's messing them up. I've seen Home Alone.

Very noble parting, good sir.

I, too, am looking at Ambray. Her random vote switch seemed rather save-y to me, and she was on my suspicion list already. I should go back and see if she had any interaction with MR.

I voted Snowy on this poll just because.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
FZ. wrote:Now, I assume that if LC is a baddie too, he's not on MR's team...duh

Question is, who among those who voted for LC was trying to save MR.

Why do you think they are not on a team? I think it is still plausible.

If so, the baddies didn't try very hard to steer the lynch away from their two teammates. I'm guessing whatever baddies are left are some combination of Tink, Ambray, and maybe Dom.

I have felt pretty good about LC, so I don't want to vote him. I'm sorry if you're good, MR, but I'm less suspicious of LC than you.

Snowy, why do you think I'm bad?

FZ. wrote:Oh crap, I just realized the poll ends tonight, and I need to go to sleep.
I want to vote MR, but I also want to hear what DF has to say

Well, I had hoped to hear from the people I questioned, but I have to go, so I'll just sum up:

I'm wondering whether Ambray and MP might have been teammates. They did seem to support each other an awful lot in the early going. The only thing is, I'm not sure whether they would be civvie or baddie teammates. I'm also wondering what Dom's opinion is, because I feel like he could have a connection to them as well.

But since I don't have time to fully flesh out this theory at the moment, I will put my vote on MR for being such a nonentity. I may change it again later, but I'd like to get his attention for now.

Simon wrote:
DFaraday wrote:
Simon wrote:
Mister Rearranger wrote:I ballsed up pretty bad twice now. I'm so sorry Made. I officially can't read you for the life of me. Snow, I apologize as well.

Dom wrote:I believe LC pit MP and myself against each other
I'm certainly narrowing down suspects now. He's top of that list.

Via process of trust elimination: SoFi, BR, yourself, and LC fit the bill for either Chick or an active team baddie at a glance.
You never talked about DFaraday and you voted for Made.

Are you Professor Z? Are you on a team with DFaraday?
No idea if he's Professor Z, but we're not on a team.
Will you vote for Mr. Rearranger?

That remains to be seen. I'm working on a theory right now which may help determine my vote.

LC, what do you think of Ambray? Dom, same question.

Simon wrote:
Mister Rearranger wrote:I ballsed up pretty bad twice now. I'm so sorry Made. I officially can't read you for the life of me. Snow, I apologize as well.

Dom wrote:I believe LC pit MP and myself against each other
I'm certainly narrowing down suspects now. He's top of that list.

Via process of trust elimination: SoFi, BR, yourself, and LC fit the bill for either Chick or an active team baddie at a glance.
You never talked about DFaraday and you voted for Made.

Are you Professor Z? Are you on a team with DFaraday?

No idea if he's Professor Z, but we're not on a team.

Ambray wrote:"I don't see how your previous lynches were based on any evidence." There would be your presumption.

I was pinged by a post of his earlier this game, one I didn't quote at the time. When I went back to find it, I couldn't identify which it was and I actually felt better about him. However, I've thought about it today and wonder if I feel better about him because his posts are very hard to find anything in, I felt - it's a very careful game.

I've felt bad from him most of the game. I talked myself out of voting him yesterday. We've yet to lynch a baddie because of being swayed by what has been brought up in the thread - I'm sticking with my gut this time.

Ambray, you've played a lot of games with me. You know that I deliberately craft my game to be as blendy as possible, whether civvie or baddie. I have to wonder why you've continually brought me up since nearly the start of the game, without offering any reason why besides gut.

As for MR, I certainly agree with everyone that he's been super under the radar. What are your thoughts, MR?

RIP MP. I feel like he was probably civ, even though he was way off base about me. Dom, do you think there is a connection between LC and Ambray?

I voted Boogs because again I have no clue what the poll is about.

And since MP is now fixated on me being bad, apparently I'll have to review Ambray and LC next day.

What the heck? I'm gone for a few hours and specious reasoning catapults me into a tie for lynching?

It was obvious that if Made didn't get lynched that every discussion going forward would be dominated by the issue of what to do with him, and so I figured (as I believe I indicated in my post) that if we lynched him we might at least get a confirmation that he was a baddie. However, I would have been remiss not to point out that the Seemer was still a possibility, but that wasn't the main point of my argument. I am willing to accept that Snowy is most likely Ramone.

I also don't get the connection between myself and Ambray. Sure, I haven't talked about her much, but besides Made (about whom I was apparently wrong), I haven't really talked much about most of the field. I've been leaning suspicious on her for awhile now, though. LC is more likely civ in my estimation.

I do think it's possible that Made an Snowy are pulling WIFOM, knowing that such heavy vouching will lead people to doubt them. Also, if Made is the Seemer, he could always come back civvie, I suppose. But I feel that lynching him would give us the most answers at this point, and as I don't have time to stick around for the end of the lynch, I am voting him.

MovingPictures07 wrote: What do you think of LC and Ambray, DF?

I do agree that Ambray has been fairly nondescript other than repeatedly mentioning me (which obviously makes her seem bad to me

), and the fact that she's managed to play a role in several civvie lynched while keeping a low profile does make me rather suspicious.

As for LC, I don't see the case on him, as he's been contributing quite a lot in my view, but I don't have a solid civvie read on him either. I'd feel better about him than Ambray, definitely.

Welcome back BWT!

I voted Tink because I don't know whether she is good and I don't know whether this poll is a good thing.

And MP, I do think you're playing a civ game, but at least some of the baddies are laying low. We need to get Tink, Simon, and MR posting. If I forgot any it's because of how much of a nonentity they've been.

To answer Made's question I'm not Mafia.

I think the case against LC is strained - not boldly asserting suspicions of players whose alignment you don't know is perfectly reasonable. That's basically how I play, as I really don't want to commit to something I'm not sure of.

I haven't felt suspicious of Dom or MP to date, but LC's theory is intriguing. However, for this lynch I will stick to my original suspicion and vote Made. I feel like if we conclude once and for all whether he is civvie then Snowy's alignment can be more easily deduced; otherwise, this topic will keep reocurring in every lynch.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I didn't mean "argument" as in case, my bad. Poor choice of words. I really just mean I could see the possibility of you being bad. I don't really have a read on you at this point, sadly.

Fair enough, I suppose.

I'm not so sure about LC being bad. Something to consider. For now I'm still more wary of Made (and by extension Snowy).

MovingPictures07 wrote: I could see the argument for DF being bad. Something to consider. I'm not really sure on him.

What argument? Ambray just keeps saying she has a feeling.

Ambray wrote: I am however more and more looking at DF. Just reading his recent posts and going by gut, I am sensing baddie. I need to look back and see where that post is that pinged me initially and I mentioned but didn't quote. I don't know if I'll have time to do that tonight, but I'll definitely go and look back before the day period is over.

When you have your suspicions at hand I will be at hand to answer.

Well, actually, I'll be at church and then watching Fellowship of the Ring, but THEN I'll be at hand to answer.

Snow Dog wrote:
DFaraday wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
DFaraday wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:My point is if you were bad who would you vote for. If we presume for the moment all options are civ. Would you jump on the mass vote for Bass? Or would you put it on myself or Made?

Probably spread out between all actually.
I agree with that, if a lynch is likely between two or more civvies I would expect a baddie team to spread their votes out. The only problem is we haven't established that either you or Made is actually civvie.
I know. But it helps me work it out because I know I am. Whether people believe me or not is up to them. What do you think of Dom?
He hasn't pinged me at all. I've found myself agreeing with him more often than not, and I'm leaning more civvie than baddie.
He is certain that Made is bad. I am certain that he is not. One of us is wrong. Who do you side with? Or anyone?

I'm more inclined to side with Dom, because I do feel like Made was saved in the last lynch, but the fact that you're so sure is giving me pause. On the other hand, since there is a seemer role, it would be possible for a baddie to heavily vouch for a teammate who is under fire. But I'm inclined to give you the benefit of the doubt unless Made is proved to be bad.

EBWOP: I think you might be right about that. If, as you say, the votes were spread out, I could see more than one baddie jumping on Bass once it was obvious he was going down anyway.

Snow Dog wrote:
DFaraday wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:My point is if you were bad who would you vote for. If we presume for the moment all options are civ. Would you jump on the mass vote for Bass? Or would you put it on myself or Made?

Probably spread out between all actually.
I agree with that, if a lynch is likely between two or more civvies I would expect a baddie team to spread their votes out. The only problem is we haven't established that either you or Made is actually civvie.
I know. But it helps me work it out because I know I am. Whether people believe me or not is up to them. What do you think of Dom?

He hasn't pinged me at all. I've found myself agreeing with him more often than not, and I'm leaning more civvie than baddie.

Snow Dog wrote:My point is if you were bad who would you vote for. If we presume for the moment all options are civ. Would you jump on the mass vote for Bass? Or would you put it on myself or Made?

Probably spread out between all actually.

I agree with that, if a lynch is likely between two or more civvies I would expect a baddie team to spread their votes out. The only problem is we haven't established that either you or Made is actually civvie.

Made wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:Sorry. I meant the bass lynch

Bass_the_Clever
8
Ambray (9), Snow Dog (10), birdwithteeth11 (11), Made (12), Simon (15), MovingPictures07 (16), Black Rock (18), Long Con (19)
42%

Made
3
Dom (4), DFaraday (6), Hedgeowl (17)
16%

Snow Dog
4
Mister Rearranger (7), Tink (8), Boogs (13), Bass_the_Clever (14)
21%
.

Depends imo.

I think a way to figure it out would be to read the front page for the roles that seem most dangerous to mafia. If base seems to be acting like that role, more votes probably went to them. Especially considering the switch from snow to bass.

Then again, another way to look at Is all the people who voted bass are quickly dying off. Only person to not vote bass and die so far was hedgie.

Unless I'm missing something, isn't BWT the only Bass voter to have died since then? Saying "all the people who voted Bass are dying off" is a very bizarre thing to say.

Made, I never had a strong civvie read on Dom. I hadn't voted for you because I thought Dom was civvie, but rather because your case seemed strained to me, like an attempt to drum up suspicion. I wasn't defending Dom, as you seem to be suggesting, I simply needed to put a vote somewhere before I left, and the manner of your post pinged me.

MovingPictures07 wrote:LOL, no worries, DF.

You think Snowy would really defend a baddie teammate that hard?

I think that gets into WIFOM territory, but I would feel more strongly about him if we knew Made's alignment. Any case on Snowy depends on Made at the moment, at least in my view.

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