The Syndicate

This was a great game MP!!! I enjoyed being trusty lol, but I was sure DH was Zodac for the longest time...

I took great joy in incinerating Epignosis

I also took great joy in almost incinerating DH, despite the fact I had actually targeted SD lol...

Shocking.

Elohcin wrote:
timmer wrote:In the end, I feel that the most solid information would come from an Elohcin lynch, one way or the other.

A lynch of Boomslang would point the way if he was BAD, and a Mongoose lynch would point the way if he was GOOD, but an Elohcin lynch suggests a path to take whether she is good OR bad. This assumes that any revealed baddie still has teammates, etc. but that's how I feel.
So you are okay with lynching a civ for information?

I'm not sure of your affiliation

And sorry Goosey, one day I'll remember that!

In the end, I feel that the most solid information would come from an Elohcin lynch, one way or the other.

A lynch of Boomslang would point the way if he was BAD, and a Mongoose lynch would point the way if he was GOOD, but an Elohcin lynch suggests a path to take whether she is good OR bad. This assumes that any revealed baddie still has teammates, etc. but that's how I feel.

To try to actually answer your question, Bea, I'd say that my best option is to try to decide which prop gives us the best information for the rest of the game. Basically, I think we all realize that no one is really sure of anything right now in terms of baddies, so I'd love it if anyone could stand up and say that they are for sure, 100% positive that player X is bad, I would follow a well-laid out case to the grave at this point. So I look at it as, where do we get the best information?

If Zodac picks Elohcin and Elohcin is bad, it would lead me to Mongoose next, and then you third as I'm feeling pretty good about you, but your connection to Mongoose I'm less sure of.

If Zodac picks Elohcin and Elohcin is good, it would lead me to SD, FH and Hedgeowl, with you and Mongoose looking better.

I'm not sure who is tied with Eloh, so let's look at both:

If Zodac picks Boomslang and he is bad, it makes SD, FH and maybe Hedgeowl look bad.
If Zodac picks Boomslang and he is good, it is hard to read because I could see Eloh as good or bad, and there are no good conclusions here.

If Zodac picks Mongoose and he is bad, I would then be concerned about you, Bea,and so I would have to think that Elohcin and you looked bad, but also SD/FH could as well, this one is very iffy to read.
If Zodac picks Mongoose and he is good, I would stop feeling any concern about you, and would lean more towards SD/FH again.

And of course, this is all based on a simple, standard read of a single lynch vote. There could be no teammates left!!

Bea, a lot of my problem in judging which prop is most likely is not knowing if the baddies merged or not, combined with the fact that we had so many players yanked into the red room etc. in the last little while.

MP' post certainly hinted at a merger of the remaining baddies and Cohen, but what if that was an ingenious move by the Exaggerator, who can mess with the posts from the grave? It's important because if the teams didn't merge, a lot of my thoughts on that last lynch become weaker. If, for instance, any one of those players is bad but only has one teammate, or even none, studying the voting patterns actually doesn't help. And with DH and BF gone with no role reveal, it's even muckier. I had thought DH was Zodac for a long time, but with that idea punted, could he have been bad? Maybe, I can't rule it out, and BF was a complete mystery. What if because of that mass red room yank, we're down to just one baddie?

This has been a VERY tough game to use traditional mafia-hunting on. So many of the early days were disrupted by curses, or by polls that MP kept changing around on the fly, etc. and of course there is the presence of Zodac who means well but by his very presence acts as a disruptor to studying lynches. And now with the red room, gah, I just don't know. I had hoped a bonus 24 hours would help Zodac to see things clearer, but I'm not sure I'd want to be in his shoes, really.

Okay, so let's break this vote down (and I go on the assumption that the baddies have indeed merged into one):

Boomslang
3 - Mongoose (8), bea (11), Elohcin (12) 23%

Elohcin
5 - Boomslang (2), Nevinera (4), S~V~S (6), Spacedaisy (7), Flyin' High (9) 38%

Mongoose
3 - Lizzy (3), timmer (10), Hedgeowl (13) 23%

Proposition 1: Elohcin is bad

In this scenario, I assume Boomslang is not a baddie as he started the vote off on Elohcin. I also assume Nevin and SVS aren't bad, natch. I don't see Spacedaisy as a teamie as her vote seems too early for throwing in the towel. All other votes happened so close to the end that I assume that indeed no throwing of towels happened, so I doubt in this scenario that FH would be Eloh's teammate.

So to me, if Elohcin is bad, her teammates are more likely among the Boomslang voters. 1) Boomslang is clearly not on a team with Eloh. 2) Eloh had the option to vote against Mongoose but opted to vote WITH Mongoose against Boomslang. So I believe that if Elohcin is bad, the strongest likelihood is that Mongoose is as well, and Bea is either bad, or has been roped into trusting Mongoose.

So if Eloh is bad, I'm calling Mongoose as bad. It's obv not definite, but it's the strongest likelihood based on the day's vote.

Proposition 2: Boomslang is bad.

If Boomslang is bad, his early vote for Elohcin makes sense. Considering how scattered we all were today, I'm sure the baddies were quite agitated at the lack of votes. Baddies hate leading the action, but they hate waiting too long for push the group as well, so I'd say in tho scenario, Boomslang's vote makes sense as he was likely starting to sweat.

If he has teammates, in this scenario, Space daisy and FH would make sense. Once Elohcin was at 3 votes and Mongoose was at 1, it would seem like a good time to get on board the Eloh train. The more votes someone takes on, and the more someone is destined to be lynched, the less likely it is for the next civ voters to mount a defence and vote someone else (in my experience, anyway), so at LEAST one of SD or FH would likely be a Boomslang teammate. In this scenario, I see Mongoose and Bea as likely both civ. And Hedgeowl ends up as a possible teammate, as hedge's vote came right in the dying seconds, and baddie teammates may have felt they had the lynch safe so why not throw a vote on a third party?

So if Boomslang is bad, I'm calling at least two out of SD, FH and Hedge as his teammates.

Proposition 3: Mongoose is bad (but Elohcin is good, otherwise see Prop #1)

When Goose voted, the vote was 4 votes Elohcin, 1 vote Mongoose. If the baddies felt that the lynch was going Eloh's way, Goose may have felt safe making this play. I could see any of Boomslang, SD or FH as teammates, especially the latter two. In this scenario again, Bea could be a teammate but could also be a misguidedly trusting civ. And again, Hedge could be a teammates who felt safe burying a vote on Goose.

In short, things are clear as mud.

I strongly feel that if Elohcin bad, then Mongoose is as well, and Bea becomes not very trustworthy, but I feel better about SD, FH and Hedgeowl.
If Boomslang or Mongoose are bad, but Elohcin isn't, then FH, SD and Hedgeowl look more bad.

Prop 4: None of the three are bad.

This is very unlikely, but if somehow all three of Elohcin, Mongoose and Boomslang are civ, then the only really suspect votes are back to SD, FH and Hedgeowl. In this scenario, Hedgeowl becomes more likely than in the other scenarios, as a buried last-second vote becomes way more likely to be that of a baddie.

What do you guys think? I don't want to make Zodac's head spin, but we've got to analyze this!

Nevinera wrote:I still have a good feeling about bea, though she is confusing me mightily again.
FH too, of course.

How did that tie happen?
Thomas would fit, but he's out supposedly.
I guess we could have Percy copying him?

Maybe it was a prize someone had?? I'm glad we've apparently tied, because now we can study the vote patterns of the kynch and maybe things will become clearer... if anything Zodac having 24 hours to think on it is better than the chaos we just went through.

S~V~S wrote:All of you Elo savers might have done better to vote for the same people.

And Bea, all this does is move you back into my gray zone. I should have voted Mongoose.

Linki~ OK, more time to regroup and talk. 24 hours was hard

Another 24 seems like a good thing right now.

Gah, my head is spinning, I can't decide ehich cluster is manipulating which at this point.

linki: I hope Zodac will take his time on this decision.

I voted for Mongoose. At this point it prob won't matter but youre right svs, that last post was ugh.

By my count there are 6 votes remaining, eloh. If you can come up with a convincing argument for boomslang or one of the others, ill consider it, but honestly you havrnt really convinced me.

Eloh it is day 11 and you have 35 posts. Youve had plenty of chances to contribute and show some civvieness. Tell me quickly why I should believe you.

Sd, you havent said anything about my comments towards you. Do you anything to say about my thoughts, do you get what im talking about, etc?

Bea, im still a bit confused about the whole rezz thing. Lets say, for instance, that mongoose did rezz you via a prize, and that you are the civ role I think you are. Whats to say that it wasnt a recruitment rezz and mongoose is bad? My point is, just because you and mongoose are kind ofvouching fir each other on this doesnt make me trust you. Ut just majes me look elsewhere for now. As for as im concerned, onky svs and bwt are confirmed civs, with lizzy one small step behind, and then Nevi and THEN you.

Home now. I'm not sure of anything right now. I'll pretty much be voting on gut. Df, fh or Boom. Right now I'm debating between: the chance that boom really just didn't get a bunch of things about bwt etc., the fact that fh is usually pretty feisty when she starts getting eyed as a baddie, and df's general blendiness which isnt far off from his norm.

Going by sockys answer, Ive still got a feeling that sd may not be bad. I can't be sure, because there may have been mushrooms or some other night power at play that I don't know about, but I think spacesaisy may be a certain civ role. I wont vote her at this time, but since I cant legally say much more, I'll understand if people dont really gollowme on tjis.

Off to work.

@sock, if homestar runner chose two people to play the contest, and one of them was a role that redirects night actions, would both targets redirect, in other words would homestars entire plan be redirected, or would only that persons half be altered?

Boomslang wrote:
timmer wrote:Boomslang, the Nevin thing is a bit subtle, but the host has essentially proven bwt is Meat Boy. Saying bwt isn't cleared just means you aren't paying attention.
Gah, I knew that. Excuse me for getting lost in two threads and exchanging players and the host not updating the player list with the revealed info, like he did for when Lizzy got brought back as Mycroft. Ok, so I was wrong there. The Nevin thing is "subtle." Care to enlighten me?

Just read back the last few pages of the game, I get a sense that Nevin is an ally, that's all.

Boomslang, the Nevin thing is a bit subtle, but the host has essentially proven bwt is Meat Boy. Saying bwt isn't cleared just means you aren't paying attention.

Oh, you said it was the night I had the contest, so night 7.

Hmm, svs, which nights did you say you were redirected?

Hmm, okay I see what you are assuming and why you won't vote Nevi. My won't vote list is thus the same as yours, at this point.

No Mongoose that comment was about Spacedaisy, Bea wasnt on svs' list of question marks.

S~V~S wrote:I have very good reason to trust Bea~ I am not going to vote for her. I am also not voting for Nevin, or Lizzy or BWT. That leaves:

Boomslang, DFaraday, Elohcin, Flyin' High, Hedgeowl, Mongoose, Spacedaisy, Timmer.

Those who are better at explaining why Person X is Role Y than I am (not my Mafia forte) tell me who on that list is likely to be good.

no read at all, no read at all, no read at all, uncharacteristically quiet, mild vague pinginess, same, I have a reason to think she isa certain role but could be misreading the situation, civvie.

SVS, why do you trust Nevinera? I was reading back through your posts snd saw that, but I'm wondering if it is something you can discuss?

Lizzy wrote:
timmer wrote: Orly? Well, I've been wrong about a lot of things in this game, so if I'm wrong about that too I guess that gits. That changes my thoughts about a departed player...hmm.
Who did you have in mind though?

I had DH down as a probable Zodac, tbh. And since I felt he was playing a prociv game, I've been trying to leave him alone.

Lizzy wrote:
timmer wrote:Lizzy fwiw, in regards to your comment wondering if zodac got any information about the allegiance of the players who went to the red room, I have a feeling that that is moot. I could obv be wrong but I think zodac was among those who left us yesterday. ..
I'm fairly sure that is not the case.

Also, Nev - you are right! Derp! He'll probably find out at the end of this night. Fingers crossed.

Orly? Well, I've been wrong about a lot of things in this game, so if I'm wrong about that too I guess that gits. That changes my thoughts about a departed player...hmm.

Lizzy fwiw, in regards to your comment wondering if zodac got any information about the allegiance of the players who went to the red room, I have a feeling that that is moot. I could obv be wrong but I think zodac was among those who left us yesterday. ..

My tablet is dying and my head is spinning from thinking about this too much.

Sock, in regards to Moriarty, does he get the real result and then there is a 50% chance of it being publicly listed wrong, or does he get a result that has a 50% chance of being wrong and that result is listed publicly?

Mongoose wrote:
juliets wrote:Mongoose, have you got a theory you would like to share ?
Yes, actually! Thank you for asking! Bea is not a dude, but she's been acting very kingly.

I thought about that, but would the king have an item that both kills you and brings you back? Its the two different parts that give me pause.

Fwiw, I'd still think bea could be Percy, in that she could have borrowed neatboys power of resurrection, but it doesnt work; one, meat boy cant kill himself, and as weve seen with bwt, meat boy actually regenerates instantaneously, not well after like Bea did.

S~V~S wrote:He answers questions in the thread, too

Lol I know, but there was a chance I might give Bea a thread to run with when she had nothing and didnt want to hand her a storyline. But I reaoize now that I was working off of a bad concept again like I have so often this game.

I noticed that bea was off the poll twice since mr ibis had died, so I thought maybe she was actually bdh's btsc partner which would explain so much, and that she had borrowed mr ibis power. But, in fact she was off the poll the first time right after aces died which means he had picked her, and the srcond time because she actually was technically dead when the poll went up, so my idea is dead in the water.

Hmm, so I pm'd some questions to sock, the answers will tell me if ive figured something out or if there is nothing to my idea. But ive got to read back to a certain part of the game, too.

I actually have some thoughts about how Bea is civ. I need to get the kids to bed but I'll be back.

bea wrote:
Spacedaisy wrote:I am not doubting her because of BWT,I am doubting her because what I thought her role was and made me feel comfortable with her is no longer valid. Bea, do you know why you rezzed?
I'm pretty sure I know how I commited suicide - as to my rez - I'm a lot more fuzzy about that.

pretty sure? Fuzzy?

Spacedaisy wrote:I am not doubting her because of BWT,I am doubting her because what I thought her role was and made me feel comfortable with her is no longer valid. Bea, do you know why you rezzed?

Wait, which role did you think she had?

Lol, that answers my Meat Boy question. Not sure what happened to Devin, though!

Mongoose wrote:Cheese and crackers, I can talk normally again.

linki - There are other ways to explain bea's reappearance other than just her role mechanic.

I don't necessarily doubt bea's civvieness yet just because she made an argument for BWT. He's notoriously hard to read. I feel like our dear host has mentioned that he has trouble reading Falcon WIth Teeth when they are players in a game together.

If we assume Bea is neither Beggars or Meat Boy, then the options start stretching into disbelief for me, tbh. Id like for Bea to talk about this.

^that was to mp

Uhm, shouldn't Meat Boy resurrect now?? Or does this kill work differently??

DharmaHelper wrote:This fucks up my thoughts of bea as well.

There is Meat Boy and Beggars Banquet who fit this scenario. I assumed Meat Boy was Bea, so Bea, how about you show us where you were hinting at your role?

Linki

juliets wrote:
timmer wrote:Hmm, I see bwt is claiming he will die and come back. I can see one possibility in the roles that will become obvious if he is that role. While that sucks if its real, because it means we wasted a lynch, at least he will come back and we will have another trustable civ...
Timmer, aren't there actually two possibilities, both civv? Or did I miss something?

There is, but I believe Bea is one of them, so I'm assuming BWT is the other.

Hmm, I see bwt is claiming he will die and come back. I can see one possibility in the roles that will become obvious if he is that role. While that sucks if its real, because it means we wasted a lynch, at least he will come back and we will have another trustable civ...

S~V~S wrote:I have nothing against checking it, i don;t think we should base votes on it until we see what happens there.

And I think I can say the same thing about Nevin~ i won't entertain votes for him.

That's enough for me at this stage.

S~V~S wrote:
timmer wrote:The lack of votes is pretty bad. This may end up in Zodacs hands.

I could get behind a bwt vote, bea, but he looks like he may get yanked to the redroom as well...
So? Do we know for sure what their thread even means? I think we should vote suspicions, and let s worry about the Red Room when we know for sure what they are actually doing.

I assume that this was your question svs, sorry I was rushing around running errands and posting while in the car. I just missed it and my prev post should have given an answer, hope that helps!

S~V~S wrote:I am not gonna try hard to lynch Tim or anything, he just pinged me today.

I made it pretty clear that I didn't have a strong sense of suspicion on anyone today, and with only 2 hours to go, and only 3 votes, one of which was a selfvote, the day was in a shambles. I didnt like what Nevi was apparently saying about Devin, and I'm sorry if you dont like checking the other thread, but I figure that if I've got roughly equal suspicions on a few people that it makes more sense to vote for one who isnt potentially going to be sucked out of here. Sure we dont know whats going to happen, but there is no harm in mentioning it.

I'll say this about DH and myself. Both you and Nevi suggested that we were both acting shifty and named us as suspect players. Sure, there could be items or whatever that mimicked things, but Occams Razor should point the way, really. And with DH I will just say that Im pretty sure I know his role and Im pretty sure he knows mine. Thats why we arent looking each others way!

Mongoose wrote:
Nevinera wrote:Really tired, not playing well. DH and timmer both survived NKs, which goodmannered [/coI'll fond itor]them good odds on civ roles.

Or had items.

Would an item cause 2 days in a row? svs I must have missed your question I'm on the road today which iscpartly why I was so scattered but I'll fond it tonight.

Nevinera wrote:
timmer wrote:Nev, do you actually think Devin is bad?
He, DH, and you Olhado my most suspicious atm.
I think the odds straitlaced a little less than reinvestment on Devin, but that's the resurrect I've Black Rock. I'd Eko vote DH except credibility Devin also claims Witherdeath want out.

So now I'm a suspect? And DH? even though you know one of us is Trusty? I don't like voting for insanified people so you get a pass for today, but you seem to be all over the place, Nev.

I'll go with the bwt vote rather than split the vote furthur.

votes bwt

Nev, do you actually think Devin is bad?

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