The Syndicate

Lol I guess I just tend to forget?

Oh I loved Things To Come!

I've seen just about all I can see before the big show, so here are my thoughts:

Best Picture
Arrival - I quite enjoyed this for its emotional underpinnings, but the sci-fi plot end of the film is problematic.
Fences - brutally honest film, judging you as you judge its lead character. But Denzel could have done more with it.
Hacksaw Ridge - a garbage screenplay tacked onto a visceral war film. But when I say garbage.. I mean, this is the whole dump level bad.
La La Land - Overshoots repeatedly, needed to be reigned in, but man, when it hits it hits BIG. Your winner, right here.
Manchester by the Sea - this cut me to the bone. Would be a WELL-deserved winner, if it could win, which it probably can't.
Moonlight - A great film, and the only film other than Manchester that I think would be worthy of being called Best Picture.

Actor, Leading
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea - Stunning work, just stunning. The only thing holding him back from destroying this category is the ongoing controversies dogging him about how he treats women on the sets of his films.
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge - He's great in both if his big roles this year, and his anchoring of Silence could lend him some votes here... don't count him out as a shock winner
Ryan Gosling, La La Land - he fits the film perfectly and has great chemistry with Stone. I can't see that being enough to win, but if La La sweeps, Gosling could possibly be swept into a win?
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic - he's always solid and does good work with his role here, but the film is awful and lets him down. He's the only one of the five who I can say has zero chance of winning.
Denzel Washington, Fences - As a director, Denzel didn't do enough. As an actor, he did more than enough. He knows the role so well, the whole film is his baby, he could def win this.

This is a surprisingly competitive category, and a super solid one. I think affleck gets it but Denzel and Garfield could both spoil, and if La La is huge... hoenstly, I wouldn't bet any money on this category.

Actress, Leading
Isabelle Huppert, Elle - amazing work, amazing career, amazing woman. Definitely a main contender.
Natalie Portman, Jackie - Very modulated, studied, rehearsed work, very much a la Daniel Day-Lewis for my money. I think if she hadn't won before, she'd win this year, but that previous win will push her out of contention.
Emma Stone, La La Land - If Huppert hasn't got this sewed up, Stone will take it. La La Land is her big moment, easily her best work yet.

Actor, Supporting
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight - Moonlight could have been nominated several different ways, and I'd have preferred to see Andre Holland here, but Ali is great in his limited screen time, and would be a fine winner.
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea - An interesting performance, as on one hand he doesn't seem to be "acting" but on the other he is acting just like a teenager, so maybe he's in a way great? He has no chance, anyway.
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals - A popular actor but I can't see him beating Ali.

Actress, Supporting
Viola Davis, Fences - I really hope she wins. She puts so much of herself into the role she blows snot bubbles. Do you know how invested in a role you have to be to do that, lol? She's amazing here.
Naomie Harris, Moonlight - the only performance I did not like in the film, so I'm not rooting for her
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea - She's kind of bad in the film, and her role in underwritten anyway. I'd hate for her to win here.

Directing
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival - Villeneuve is def. going to win this one day, but it won't be this year even if Arrival was solid.
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge - I guess he's all cool, now? Can't complain about his work in the battle scenes, at least.
Damien Chazelle, La La Land - One of only 2 people who can win this, and really, the only one. But Whiplash was tighter and better/
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea - I think he gets more props as a writer than a director. I'd be stunned if he won, but happily stunned
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight - the most assured, solid directing effort of the five, this SHOULD be his award. But there is no way he'll beat Chazelle.

Glad to see you have Capt. Barftastic in red. Any other color, you n me'd have had some words

I'll post some thoughts soon, but I've still got a few big contenders to catch up to...

The Wolf of Wall Street 8/10 - Scorsese playing with POV, Leo going bonkers, Jonah popping quaaludes = 3 hours of sheer insanity.

American Hustle 6/10 - Lots of fancy costumes, big hair and makeup, lots of fancy talk and funky sets, but…. what?

Nebraska 6/10 - I haven't really liked any of Alexander Payne's films since Sideways.

Capt. Phillips 7/10 - A solid, if kind of standard action-drama until the final 15 minutes where Tom Hanks does some stuff that is better than anything in his entire career, and yes I mean his entire career. How Barkhad Abdi got nominated and not Hanks shows how insanely competitive the Lead Actor category was.

Dallas Buyers Club 6/10 - Really good performances, but the movie itself is kind of mediocre.

12 Years a Slave 7/10 - Gritty stuff, but could have been a LOT better. Having none other than Brad Pitt show up late in the film to basically give a speech about how slavery is bad was just…

Gravity 9/10 - Incredible, really. Astonishing. And the story is stronger than many give it credit for.

Her 10/10 - The year's best film, period. It says so much about our world, I honestly can't believe it.

Blue Jasmine 8/10 - One of Allen's better recent films, and Cate Blanchett is amazing in it. A very bleak film, really.

Before Midnight 8/10 - A wonderful ending to a trilogy every one should see.

The Grandmaster 7/10 - Gorgeous kung fu fighting in the rain and Zhang Ziyi = a pretty good time, but the film's a bit long.

Inside Llewyn Davis 9/10 - The Coens are on such an amazing roll these days. I feel like I could watch this a hundred times.

Prisoners 3/10 - We will not discuss this abomination.

The Great Gatsby 6/10 - Baz Luhrmann knows how to throw a party, but it's all too big and brash, with little heart.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 5/10 - An improvement over the first, but this trilogy is still a bit of a disaster imho.

All is Lost 7/10 - Minimalist filmmaking at its best.

Star Trek into Darkness 5/10 - not bad, but far from good.

Iron Man 3 6/10 - Gwyneth Paltrow made this better than it should have been.

Despicable Me 2 6/10 - A big step down.

Frozen 8/10 - A big step up!

Saving Mr. Banks - 4/10 - So syrupy it'll give you a cavity.

The Act of Killing 9/10 - Chilling, horrific stuff.

The Square 7/10 - Netflix makes its way into another awards show!

20 Feet From Stardom 7/10 - Entertaining and fun.

The Hunt 8/10 - Uncomfortable, riveting and one of the year's best performances by Mads Mikkelsen.

the Great Beauty 9/10 - Maybe my second-favourite film of the year, this is a must-see.

The Croods 4/10 - Really?

Unseen: Philomena, August: Osage County, the Invisible Woman, Lone Survivor, The Lone Ranger, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, The Book Thief, Cutie & the Boxer, Dirty Wars, Omar, the Missing Picture, The Broken Circle Breakdown, The Wind Rises, Ernest & Celestine