The Syndicate

Sigh. Serge sounds genuine.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:58 pm k

who didn't want to lynch ddl tho

Do you think that his teammate wouldn't have bussed him? Why?

I'm almost certainly going to vote Serge today, but it's prudent that we prepare for the worst case scenario that he flips town and we have to proceed into murkier waters. I need to hear more from NT and Dom. I'll throw a vote on Dom for now to get him to say more things.

Here's the thing with this game right now. We're definitely on a good track, but we potentially run the risk of blowing it with the complacent pace and consensus suspects. They've worked out really well thus far because we caught sanmateo red handed and managed to tip the game heavily in our favor, but right now I'm feeling like 80% confident the last mafia is Serge and we've won the game and 20% paranoid as fuck that we have an unlikely/somewhat consensus townie third and/or fourth scum person up in here.

Regarding the existence of three or four scum members, I highly doubt there are four, but if there are just three I do also start to worry about a third party role. I'd like to think there's only 3 scum and no 3P given the fact that this is a Heist (and thus the game should be simplistic) and Jay is very meticulous regarding balance, but I'm not super confident in asserting that as the setup here, which is a bit worrisome.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:49 am What do people think of Dom?

I have practically no read on him. He's made very little impression on me this game, which is certainly unusual. I can't really get anything other than null out of his extant content -- the most notable thing in his ISO/vote history is the suspicion of DDL but it could just as easily have been a brazen bus as it was a relatively uninvolved/uninvested townie expressing solid agreement with what he had seen.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:11 pm Hold up guys. Check out what I found.

Spoiler: show
gg y'all. wasn't in sydney at all but in the ice cream place near my office here in portland

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:52 pm
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:48 pm What are your thoughts on the speedchuck kill? I was expecting MP to die so it has surprised me.
I also expected MP to die, but nightkill analysis is not my bag. Maybe they were just more afraid of speedchuck because of MP's schedule or something. I don't think either of them were getting any votes from anyone.

I'm frankly shocked I'm cleared/townread this much and still alive. It almost never happens in either regard, especially because I tend to attract a ton of suspicion, let alone both simultaneously.

RIP speedchuck.

You put forward a great effort, thank you.

Having just caught up quickly here and not done any additional digging beyond what you all have said and what I've done before now, here's where I'm currently at:

Spacedaisy

birdwithteeth11
nutella
Sloonei

NewTraditionalist

Dom

Serge

It's going to be a very busy weekend for me, but I'll force myself to be around more this cycle.

NewTraditionalist wrote: ↑Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:15 pm I have to say that doing this in a forum is really difficult for me compared to sitting around a table. I really have no idea what to look for.

Dude, you are just fine. Took me 5 games before I even knew what the hell I was doing, and took 5 years before I felt I was any decent at this. I still doubt it, but yeah. I'd say everyone just continually develops their own style based on experience.

I strongly support the huge bandwagon on DDL despite my inactivity this current cycle. Hope we're right.

Busier than I anticipated and I don't think I'll have time before the deadline expires. Sorry all. I'll catch up and contribute what I can perhaps tonight post-deadline or tomorrow before N3 ends for sure.

FYI I'll be around either tonight or tomorrow afternoon-evening. Busy working in the interim. Based on having read nothing since the D2 result, I endorse a lynch of DDL, but it's important we don't become complacent, consider every possibility (including a town DDL), and analyze as much as we can. I'm sure someone else (probably Sloonei) has said this already, but I just don't want to see town lose motivation to finish this win off after an incredible lynch yesterday. I know I haven't done anything yet, but I'll do what I can.

I'll vote A. I don't have information or anything, I just like the letter.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:14 pm
MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:58 pm
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:55 pm I'm looking at a sanmateo/DDL teammate pairing with that last post by DDL.
Oh, I hadn't even thought of that!

That could actually explain sanmateo's suspicion of DDL even more -- because he knows he's bad.
The whole "The MP train is bullshit" charade looked like distancing to me.

What do you mean?

It was fun playing with you again though, sanmateo, hope to see you play another one.

YES!!! THAT IS WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. :yay:

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:55 pm I'm looking at a sanmateo/DDL teammate pairing with that last post by DDL.

Oh, I hadn't even thought of that!

That could actually explain sanmateo's suspicion of DDL even more -- because he knows he's bad.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:50 pm
MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:34 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:32 pm Well, looks like you and Epi just independently came up with the same conclusion. That's pretty impressive. Assuming you haven't read Epi's posts because if you had, you'd just say "I agree".
Lol, yeah, I have read through just the start of N1 right after the lynch result, but other than that just skimmed some of the most recent page and now trying to piece everything together via ISOs. Hadn't seen Epi's commentary yet.

What do you think of it?
See my vote.

You and Epi are both good players. Both of you coming to the same conclusion independently means a lot. It's too silly and meta for a planned gambit IMO. I read it as genuine. Gives you both town points, and makes me feel bad about Sanmateo.

Doesn't mean Sanmateo is scum. But that observation is definitely not something scum pulled out of their butt. Not like this. So I'm on board. I feel good about this.

That's fair enough. Surprisingly (at least to me), I'm feeling pretty good about it too, as good as I could considering I had to come in here and decide a vote with a huge sense of urgency, some very vague reads on most players, and having not really been involved the past 72 hours. Thanks to you and everyone else for pushing forward the discussion.

[mention]Spacedaisy[/mention]

Usually you have thoughts and a good read on nutella, what do you think?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:46 pm I have no idea how to read sanmateo. He did accuse me a few times and I argued that back, but other than that he has been kind of a non factor in this game, so I don't remember him really much. I usually suspect people who are like that tbh. But I'm sticking with Nutella.

That's precisely why I think he's not town. Even in his pursuit of you, it's very... not aggressive, as if he doesn't really push forward a case on you, like he doesn't believe it. He's looking at things objectively, like you hopping on a bandwagon, and doesn't seem interested in developing mafia/scum reads based on anyone's actual content. And his town reads, upon reflection, could very well be a case where he's buddying/has info on them being town.

Looking at nutella now.

I do feel there is cause for some

-- her suspicion of DDL as initially expressed is ehh... I'm not quite sure if I follow it fully, so that's on me somewhat, but -- and maybe I'm thinking he's a scapegoat too much -- he really makes for a convenient lead suspect if he is good. I also think her rainbow was a bit uninspiring.

but I also feel there's plenty to read her as genuine -- her waffly first reads read like textbook town nutella to me. And her string of posts here, before, and after all read genuinely as fuck.

This is a tougher call, but I'd still call her slight town GTH. I absolutely feel better about voting sanmateo.

Looking at Sloonei now: This man is either supatown or he's faking it even better than he did in SF.

He fooled me well in SF, but one thing he does seem to be doing more of here is evaluating as many people as possible when he is here, something he didn't quite do as much in SF when he was bad and only put forth some players in the conversation. I'd say that's a good look and I was probably wrong about him.

Okay, yeah, I mean -- Daisy could be fooling me I suppose, but she's emotionally wearing everything on her sleeves this game, and her initial reaction to my pressure vote still reads genuine to me. I'm not interested in a vote that way today.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:32 pm Well, looks like you and Epi just independently came up with the same conclusion. That's pretty impressive. Assuming you haven't read Epi's posts because if you had, you'd just say "I agree".

Lol, yeah, I have read through just the start of N1 right after the lynch result, but other than that just skimmed some of the most recent page and now trying to piece everything together via ISOs. Hadn't seen Epi's commentary yet.

What do you think of it?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:31 pm
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:03 pm I had a post about this earlier today, but got rid of it because I wasn't sure where I was going with it. I'm going to rewrite it now that I have thought it over.

sanmateo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:04 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:02 pm
sanmateo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:59 pm
birdwithteeth11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:22 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:44 pm I felt like Epignosis' reactions were way more suspicious than my reaction to them. I don't understand why you ignore my points about his reactions and just vote for me instead.
How about this for a plan then? We lynch you today for your backtracking. If you flip civ, then we lynch Epig on Day 2 since he was clearly egging you on and trying to start something!
yeah that seems like a terrible plan. none of what i've seen from the epi/LC thing moves me particularly. it's a bunch of tepid day 1 stuff. but more importantly, if getting into weird arguments in-game is really a recurring thing between them, then obviously we need to look elsewhere because anything coming from either of the two about the other one holds less weight.
where else shall we look?
well there's already a bandwagon forming against long con so that seems like a great starting point
I don't know how sanmateo (or anyone) could call the interactions between LC and me "a bunch of tepid day 1 stuff." Perhaps he was misusing the word "tepid." I don't know.

What I do know is that sanmateo wanted to start investigating people who even expressed an anti-LC opinion: Despite sanmateo's use of the word "bandwagon," I don't recall LC ever having more than two votes until DrWilgy swung the hammer.

This, then, presupposes that, for whatever reason, sanmateo believes that Long Con is good.

How did he come to think that if he dismissed the interactions between LC and me as "a bunch of tepid day 1 stuff?"

Why begin trying to suspect people who are expressing an anti-LC opinion on Day 1 before there was a lynch?

It only makes sense to me if he already knows Long Con is not bad.

Ha, that's funny, sorry I would have just commented on this directly if I had seen it. I agree with your interpretation here.

sanmateo wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:23 pm i'm looking at this mp bandwagon and it just looks like bullshit. if he's scum spacedaisy is probably scum as well but it's not exactly a solid vote. wilgy's vote could literally mean anything. and ddl has once again gone on a bandwagon, i understand that he's sequestered meeting family, friends and loved ones and he can't yell at strangers online (aka the best thing in the world) or whatever, but am i going insane? he's done this twice

This also could be buddying, since I know I'm town. DDL is also a very easy scapegoat for a mafia member to suspect, if he is indeed town as well, because he was playing the "textbook baddie" move of jumping on bandwagons -- which, I actually think is nonsense because I've seen more townies lead mislynches on other townies while the baddies sit back and try to avoid it all, but that's for another conversation.

I feel comfortable enough in voting sanmateo for now. I'll dig through Daisy, Sloonei, and nutella ISOs now just to see what I think too.

Some linki and stuff

sanmateo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:04 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:02 pm
sanmateo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:59 pm
birdwithteeth11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:22 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:44 pm I felt like Epignosis' reactions were way more suspicious than my reaction to them. I don't understand why you ignore my points about his reactions and just vote for me instead.
How about this for a plan then? We lynch you today for your backtracking. If you flip civ, then we lynch Epig on Day 2 since he was clearly egging you on and trying to start something!
yeah that seems like a terrible plan. none of what i've seen from the epi/LC thing moves me particularly. it's a bunch of tepid day 1 stuff. but more importantly, if getting into weird arguments in-game is really a recurring thing between them, then obviously we need to look elsewhere because anything coming from either of the two about the other one holds less weight.
where else shall we look?
well there's already a bandwagon forming against long con so that seems like a great starting point

On reflection, digging through his ISO, I also believe this post is a bit shady. It's like "well, there's a bandwagon forming against LC so let's see who's jumping on that!" while also offering up no real baddie reads of his own. This is someone treading lightly, not solving the game.

sanmateo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:59 pm
birdwithteeth11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:22 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:44 pm I felt like Epignosis' reactions were way more suspicious than my reaction to them. I don't understand why you ignore my points about his reactions and just vote for me instead.
How about this for a plan then? We lynch you today for your backtracking. If you flip civ, then we lynch Epig on Day 2 since he was clearly egging you on and trying to start something!
yeah that seems like a terrible plan. none of what i've seen from the epi/LC thing moves me particularly. it's a bunch of tepid day 1 stuff. but more importantly, if getting into weird arguments in-game is really a recurring thing between them, then obviously we need to look elsewhere because anything coming from either of the two about the other one holds less weight.

This is the post I'm thinking of. I was giving sanmateo townie points early in the game for what I believed were rational arguments, but this very well could be someone that didn't want to touch an LC or Epi mislynch.

Okay, so SPOILER ALERT, of the current wagons, sanmateo is the one I'm most interested in exploring. I'm torn on nutella but from what I recall she seems genuinely interested in hunting and she seemed genuinely upset at the end of Day 1/start of Night 1. I think Daisy and Sloonei read genuine as well.

sanmateo did some posturing on Epi and LC that could have been confirmation bias. IIRC, he was pretty quick to dismiss it as town v. town.

What do people think of sanmateo? Has he been discussed at all?

Random thought:

One of the things that led to town's destruction in Street Fighter was that half the players didn't receive any genuine pressure. We should make a concerted effort to change that here.

Did NT post or did he fly by vote for Sloonei?

Just skimming through this current page, I honestly feel like most of the people throwing around the most recent posts seem genuine. speedchuck, Epi, Sloonei, and Daisy all read genuinely to me. Harder to tell about DDL but I'm not feeling super suspicious of him at the moment either.

I'll dig into some post histories. Perhaps that'll be best.

Okay, sorry about that. Not sure if I'll have time to do a full catch up in 50 minutes... and I don't think it'd be wise to choose that over trying to develop reads in the moment. So who's around?

Something's come up, BBS.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:12 pm Firstly, I call BS at MP saying he doesn't know scum-chuck. He was the only thing that stood between me and a LMS win in Phenon Mafia. I made the most ridiculous claim known to man, and yet was still good enough at forming cases and playing the innocent that MP practically flipped a coin for the lynch. Granted, that was the only game, and he subbed in . . . Okay, maybe I could buy it. I think about it.

Oh yeah, that's right.

I would say you were technically 3rd party anti-town, but yeah. I did sub into that game so my meta evaluation of you based on that didn't really come to mind.

Going to steadily work on catching up now, bear with me here.

I'm sorry folks, I worked as much as possible from 6:00AM-9:00PM last night and pretty similar the previous day, and I'm currently recovering a bit from that. I'll be around sporadically before EoD.

Well, I have to get back to work. I won't be here again other than to check result(s) until after my (crucial) deadline which is Sunday evening. See you all then.

birdwithteeth11 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:45 pm I'm sticking with my vote fwiw.

F**k you MP. Fine, I'll do a rainbow read even though I don't care for these things.

Moderate Town:
MP
BWT

Slight Town:
Epig
Sloonei
SD

Null:
Dom
DDL
Wilgy
NewTraditionalist
Nutella[
sanmateo
Serge/b]

Slight Scum:
LC

Moderate Scum:
speedchuck

Wouldn't you be confirmed town on your own rainbow, why only moderate?

I don't know. I guess either LC or speedchuck is OK. Just don't want it to be me.

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:38 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:33 pm Fffffffff I'm on the bus and I spent forever typing a catching up post on my slow af phone and then lost it. Will post when I get home right before deadline
Where's your vote?

Didn't mean to sound insensitive, by the way, just curious where your vote is landing. Curious to hear your catch-up thoughts whenever you're able.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:33 pm Fffffffff I'm on the bus and I spent forever typing a catching up post on my slow af phone and then lost it. Will post when I get home right before deadline

Where's your vote?

Yeah, I'm nervous about this now. Ugh.

I guess I'll switch to LC.

Other people should say things.

I would prefer to hear from him too before condemning him to death. I guess I could hop to Sloonei or LC as well but ehhhhh. I don't feel that great about those options let alone anyone else.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:16 pm
MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:50 pm
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:17 pm I just looked back and I think I don't understand what he was saying.
It is unclear how speedchuck is changing his reads. He says he has no town reads, but earlier in the game he had clearly stated town reads in Epi, Sloonei, and (perhaps) sanmateo. What alarms me further is that speedchuck is saying he doesn't like how all over the place the thread is (but he's worse than almost anyone else in that regard, at least from what I saw) AND he says he wants to vote for either LC or Epi "for information" when he clearly was defending Epi as a town read earlier. I found no substantiated reason for his change of mind.

I therefore believe that he is likely fabricating his reads.
My problem with this is that speedchuck is quite careful and a devious kind.

Do you think he'd forget he said I was good and then call me bad later?

I don't.

That's a fair point. I'm not sure he'd "forget", but his opinions just seemed all over the place to me. I guess it's potentially genuine inconsistency as opposed to opportunistic fabrication.

I'm not even sure I've personally seen a mafia-aligned speedchuck.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:14 pm
MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:48 pm "dogpee" MP
Already been done.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:14 pm
MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:44 pm Daisy is wrong about me and Wilgy is right? What the hell? What universe is this?
Was there a game on here in which you and Spacedaisy were teammates?

On here? Hmm...

I can only think of one: Romance of the Three Kingdoms. But I'm not sure how much that counts considering how nonexistent we both were due to moving apartments and me studying for comps.

I can't recall any others.

Epi, what do you think? What are your current reads now?

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