Okay, here's the deal. I kind of want to try a different approach to this today because I feel so many players are on different pages and, as CBK noted above me, some players are apparently feeling very lost. Even I am, to some degree, and yet it's Day 7. The game should feel vastly different now than it did on Day 1 in terms of leads. I've been thinking about all of this... and considering there's been hardly any discussion so far, someone has to start it!
First off, as to where we're currently at. 18 players. There could be either 1 or 2 Teen Girl Squad members left, based on the fact we know 2 are gone. Now I looked at Vompatti's posts and Gleam's posts, and it confirmed my thoughts that I do think Gleam was the Cheerleader, so honestly I think we only have 1 more TGS member to sniff out. That's good. On the bad news side, unless Mongoose and Gleam were Blue Laser, which I'm not thinking is the case at all, we very well could have 4 Blue Laser members still alive. I actually believe this to be true. And I also firmly believe Trogdor is alive.
Consequently, I'll take ANY baddie lynch today, since it's apparently 11 v. 7 or even 10 v. 8. However, Blue Laser might be the most preferable, because we have absolutely no leads on them yet and they could very well be going strong. If I'm wrong about llama or Devin -- which I'm not because I will eat a hat (seriously), even though I have eaten a hat once before I still think I won't be eating one this game -- that could change the numbers... but really I don't think it does. I think those are the most current numbers. I'm not trying to cause panic, or anything like that. I think we could definitely win this game. It sometimes helps as a civvie to keep everything in consideration, especially because I've seen certain players this game specifically want to catch Cheerleader and other TGS roles based off of Elohcin's lynch, but no one seems to care about Blue Laser. It could be that these players are trying to avoid bringing attention to their own team. Maybe it's just because we haven't lynched them yet. Nonetheless, even if none of that is applicable, it's good to keep an understanding of the numbers in mind from time to time, at least in my opinion. If you find it worthless, feel free.
Now...
I did some investigation last night with regards to voting records and a little bit of glancing back... It didn't get me much concrete, but I at least feel I can elaborate as to where I'm currently at with everyone now.
So looking at the player list first thing this morning and here's what I've got:
I believe I am feeling strongly civvie on A Person, Leamiteo; I also felt that way about Devin and llama, and I also do about myself (obviously, despite my vote yesterday).
Before Mongoose's death, I had a civvie read, and I also think I can trust BDH, despite my previous distrust of him. After the last two cycles or so and especially in the past one, I have a hard time believing he's a baddie. He could be Blue Laser... but I don't think so at this point. So those two players are in my firmly possibly civvie category. I felt a similar way about Matt F before his replacement, so naturally I am carrying over those feelings to indi, even though I can't read indi at all (and I'm convinced she can't read me either after Minecraft, so it's certainly mutual).
I'm REALLY torn on Borokkuei. I was thinking he was a likely candidate to receive my vote going into Day 6, but my dialogue with him led me to re-evaluate my suspicion and I was thinking he seemed more normal Alan and what Alan would say as a civvie there. However, I still feel he could definitely be baddie. So he's firmly in my giant I HAVE NO IDEA category. I would say most of the rest of the players I haven't mentioned probably fall somewhere in here, for various reasons.
I don't really have any strongly baddie candidates at this moment... especially as I'm trying to avoid a repeat of llama after I realized the follies of my incredibly early case.
However, I do believe that DP could be likely Trogdor (or even baddie, but IDK) at this point, and on the off chance he is a civvie, he's not doing us much good at all. I've played with DP countless times and I know him quite well. I can say that his quiet level does not exactly equate to his alignment... at all. That being said, he has popped in the thread a few times, and I have seen him skate by as a baddie before.
As to Trogdor, I really think it's S~V~S or DP. At the moment, I'm kind of leaning more so DP, because here's one thing about DP. There are a few things that tend to dictate his participation level, that I think would apply to other players as well, but let me elaborate: (1) theme (I don't think he has any knowledge of this); (2) RL (as he explained, he was VERY active by his standards in 6FU, and he does seem to be a bit busier now); (3) pace of the game (as he stated earlier, he doesn't like lots of talking, usually... but I could see him saying this as a baddie or Trogdor early on and using it as some grounds to preemptively explain his low participation level later on); and most importantly, (4) his BTSC-status and the dynamic of it. I have noticed that DP thrives very much so on a BTSC team, but ONLY if it's 2-3, or maybe even 4 players. In MOTU, he was less involved, probably because I was essentially directing the entire team due to having two noobs and that's how I am sometimes, but that team also had 6 players on it. Additionally, when that small team is made up of people he feels comfortable bouncing mafia with, it helps even further. 6FU he was on a team with me (replaced by Russ, then replaced by Epig) and Vompatti. Epig, Vomps, DP, and I all know each other from PA. Conversely, when DP is a civvie in a game that he isn't even fully invested in, usually he doesn't give up COMPLETELY. In Grimm, he was Finnian Metalfox, and despite everyone going after him hard that game for lack of participation, he clearly defended himself, multiple times, and still no one believed him. He defended himself with one post this game and that's about it. What gives me pause is that I could see a scenario he is civvie and has given up, but for some reason I'm finding it more difficult to believe.
Based on what I said above, I know that DP can sometimes fail to send in PMs when he doesn't become invested in a game. In Bioshock, his participation level wasn't too high, and he had a completely lone civvie role, near vanilla, which then later turned LMS. He failed to send in a PM on at least three occasions that I can remember. What I'm getting is that I could totally see him being Trogdor, forgetting to send it in a few times, and otherwise just not caring enough to actually start sending it in, hoping that players would get too wrapped up in overanalysis.
Now any of you could take all of that as pointless speculation. Maybe it is. Maybe I shouldn't use my baseline of DP at all because it's unfair or inaccurate. That's possible, and I have considered that. However, either way, if he still refuses to come in here and at least try this period, I am heavily contemplating a vote for him, because he really isn't doing us any good, and I'm afraid he may be trying to skate by as a baddie (possible, but I'm not sold on that) or Trogdor (much more possible, but I still am not 100%). That said, as I mentioned earlier, getting leads would be nice, and no leads can be made from Trogdor, and he is not currently killing. I do consider DP could be any baddie though, so he's someone to consider.
I feel the same way about DFaraday (even though this is pretty close to his norm) and LT. I'm not advocating all of these players are baddie; in fact, all three could be civvie. I don't know that. But I really want to hear more from them, and what bugs me the most about DP is/was not necessarily being displayed by DF or LT's previous incarnation (bea). I feel DF has at least been showing up, giving his thoughts, and I have no read on him one way or the other. I was really not sure what to think of bea either, I could have seen her as a possible baddie, but I'm not sure. I'd like some who know both of these players well to weigh in here, as well as those who don't know either of them, that way we get all perspectives.
Now... as to other possible suspects. I've thrown BWT's name for discussion I don't even know how many damn times now and hardly anyone is picking it up. In fact, I think only Mongoose gave an opinion on him. I went back and glanced quickly through BWT's voting record and posts and it confirmed what I was thinking about him all game: that he's been blendy to an extreme. He tends to flow exactly with whatever way the thread is going. That scares me. However, what also scares me is my track record on reading BWT (incredibly poor), so I've been very hesitant to follow this lead any more than I have (somewhat similarly to what I felt about Vompatti).
Therefore, if anyone else could give me their current opinions on BWT, that would be great. Timmer, you've played some games with him, what do you think? Likewise for others who have played games for him. S~V~S, I know you can read him WAY better than I can. Thoughts?
And lastly, BDH, your read-through on Vomps was incredibly insightful, and I think I can trust you. Do you mind doing the same for BWT and telling the thread if you see anything or maybe if I'm just full of total crap and he seems like a civvie? You also have completely new eyes since you've never played with any of us so I feel that could be helpful. Same for any of you other newbies if you feel up to the task.
There's more too... timmer, juliets, CBK, I mean, obviously any of you can look at the player list and see what you currently think about anyone. A lot of these players I'm really just not sure what to think. Maybe you feel the same way. Doesn't matter. Even if you have no reads at all. Come out and be honest. I want to try to get the feelers out there so we can really have a good discussion today.
I could be just as right or just as wrong as any of you, so the key is communication so that we can sniff out those who are lying for nefarious reasons and those who are honestly trying to help out the cause.
And of course all of these are just my current thoughts; any of you are free to take them as you wish and I really want feedback from others as to what I've said or as to what everyone else is currently thinking (or both).
I won't be back until later tonight or tomorrow morning, so I'll see all of you then!
