The Syndicate

Golden wrote:A lot of things surprised me in this game. G-Man's lynch for one, MP had a legitimate derpclear. Why Trice was suddenly taking a whole lot of heat I never quite understood (or whether it was for correct reasons). Basically after I was voted out the game became more and more unfathomable as I tore my hair out screaming WHY AREN'T YOU LYNCHING JAY AND DOM!!!!

Between my replacement getting lynched and everyone in and outside of the game in Lost Again thinking that I was mafia, I'm convinced nearly everyone on this site can't read me for shit.

Damn, Jay was the SK? I knew something was off about him but I still didn't think he was mafia; it never made sense. Glad to know I was onto something at some point there. Well earned, bud! Winning as an SK is certainly a challenge.

So I see this game is over! Apologies for having to replace out and for missing the spectator chat yesterday, but I'm really glad I subbed out because I had absolutely no computer time when I was in Cinci. It was real busy. I had a blast while I played though, thanks for the game Rico!

I haven't yet had time for this game. Sorry all. Between spending time with Annie and packing, and then leaving out of Austin tomorrow, it'll be busy. I'll do what I can.

Frankly, I'm considering a replacement at this stage, since until December 26th or later I'll be phone posting and putting in the bare minimum, but I'd prefer to stick around I guess. Just be understanding in advance because it's the only time I've gotten to see most of my family and friends in over a year and likely the last time I'll see a lot of them for a while too.

I suppose a mafia-aligned player could have stopped the lynch if they thought we'd waste our time on mislynching MM and Trice the next two Day phases. Something to think about.

timmer wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:MM, at some point earlier in the game you seemed a bit more resigned to being lynched. Today either you or trice survived the lynch. Would you fault me for finding it more plausible that you are the player that survived?

My gut tells me that it involved a third party, tbh. Trice absolutely did not post like someone who knew he was safe, he was frantic, and oddly enough I feel like MM didn't act right either because he would have been looser than he was. He actually seemed to be hamstrung in retrospect.

That's a decent point. But who the hell would stop the lynch? I don't know why any townie would do it if they didn't have info on both MM and Trice.

Sweet, thanks. The more you can elaborate on all of those reads, the better. For now, I'm tired. We'll talk more later.

If BWT is mafia, who is his (other) teammate?

I'm starting to think you're genuine, MM. Am I a fool?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm tired of lynching civilians. Between this game and Lost Again, I'm feeling emotionally taxed.

I'll see what ISO digging I can do tomorrow.

Let's chat now!

Talk to me about nijuu. She made a single post during EoD, and that was a drive-by vote of me.

We can talk now, sure, but my brain hurts, I'm pissed at lynching townies in two games, and I'm uninformed, but yeah, OK.

I'm not sure what to think of her. GTH I'd lean slight mafia. What do you think of her?

MM, at some point earlier in the game you seemed a bit more resigned to being lynched. Today either you or trice survived the lynch. Would you fault me for finding it more plausible that you are the player that survived?

I'm tired of lynching civilians. Between this game and Lost Again, I'm feeling emotionally taxed.

I'll see what ISO digging I can do tomorrow.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:BWT seemed far too eager to play a big part in this EoD without committing one way or the other (another reason I'm starting to think that trice is civ).

birdwithteeth11 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Tentatively I'd still consider MM, but I'm in pure catchup and then re-assess mode right now.

Keep reading. It's why I didn't vote for MM.

He pointed out at T-1.5 hours a reason he didn't vote for me. He eventually voted for me, because of posts like this:

birdwithteeth11 wrote:

triceratopzeuhl wrote:Even if you lynch me today, remaining civvies can still easily win if they listen to me. I'm sort of resigned to the fact that I die every game I ever play (it's why all my victories are as mafia or indy, being alive isn't typically a win condition for them) and even if you don't lynch me, Dom or JJJ will nightkill me before the game is over.

Like I stated before, if you can give me a good enough reason to vote MM, then I would be willing to move my vote there.

Or a good enough reason to vote for anyone other than you at all. I have time to go back and re-read stuff right now.

BWT had just gave trice his vote with fairly strong conviction. He then gives trice the chance to talk himself out of lynch, and me into a lynch. That's taking advantage of trice's situation.


Trice never even gave a reason to vote for me, except that I might have faked a curse or something. Yet, bwt changed his vote to me because timmer did. I see this as buddying with timmer, because bwt had just stated why he hadn't voted for me.

This is by far the most compelling thing you've said all game. I'm mulling over it.

MM, can you bluntly summarize your case against BWT?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Night 1, Vompatti was killed by an unknown cause. The most likely cause (based on Sleep making the most recent kill) is that he was Moya and the kill rebounded. It is also possible another player has an ability to "borrow" a power from another player, and Vompatti's kill on himself.

Night 3, it appears that more players were cursed than Night 1. Again, this points to the potential that somebody out there can "borrow" a power. This is compounded by the fact that LoRab's curse was a oft-used one on the Syndicate (run your text through an insanifier), so the power-borrower didn't get to choose it (Rico chose a simple one).

You just might be onto something.

Well, that's not an illuminating result.

Welcome, Quin! I guess that means Sloonei asked to be replaced. Good luck subbing in.

I have to go spend time on Lost Again now... haven't been in that game at all either. I'll be back to see the flip, and then after that TBD.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Spoiler: show

MovingPictures07 wrote:MP's End of Day 3 Rainbow - GY!BE Rainbow #9

Strong Town:
timmer

Moderate Town:
Epignosis
Sloonei
Boomslang

Weak Town:
JaggedJimmyJay
triceratopzeuhl
birdwithteeth11
nijuukyugou
sig

Weak Mafia:
LoRab

Moderate Mafia:
Dom
Metalmarsh89

Strong Mafia:
Scotty

This should say Day 4. Holy shit, it's Day 4.

Oops, I forgot BWT. Sorry dude. I'll add him in the weak town.

Didn't you say I was a potential teammate of JJJ's early? What made you move me back to weak town?

I have never mafia read you or JJJ all game really, except maybe the very very beginning of the game when I wasn't sure what to make of JJJ, but even then he was more null than anything.

You're my tinfoil teammates -- tinfoil specifically because you're the two folks in the game I'm town reading that I would currently be least surprised about flipping mafia, and specifically, together.

Dom wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Dom, I messed up with BWT; I added him in later as a weak town.

You're not moving down; you were a moderate mafia last time (a full cycle previously) as well; I noted that I found timmer's points compelling.

No reassessment despite new evidence? Is that not exactly what you're condemning JJJ for?

A fair question. Two things though:

1) I haven't re-assessed you really at all since that last rainbow. You aren't the only one though... I'd say I'm not sure I feel any differently about LoRab or a few others since then either. All of my reads aren't as informed as I'd like them to be because I haven't had the time yet to dig into folks' ISOs. I'd like to still do that, but I'm not sure I'll have time before I leave on Thursday for Cincinnati. I didn't see anything in my catchup from you that compelled me to move you immediately, but I haven't really given it appropriate attention either.

2) I'm not condemning JJJ; I still am reading him weak town (though he was previously moderate town). It's just something that seems uncharacteristic of town!JJJ and I'm not sure what to make of it beyond finding it slightly suspicious at face value.

triceratopzeuhl wrote:lynch votes

Dom: missed, Wilgy, BWT
Lorab: missed, A Person, A Person
Scotty: epignosis, Lorab, A Person
BWT: missed, Boomslang, A Person
Boomslang: Metalmarsh, Timmer, Metalmarsh

Not seeing anything too helpful unfortunately

if metalmarsh flips bad it should clear boomslang (but if he flips bad I think Dom is the remaining mafia)

I do agree that MM and Boomslang are very unlikely, near impossible teammates, at least as an uninformed perspective.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:GTH I'd say that's a good look for Scotty though.

You were with me on the mountain sockface.

??

Dom, I messed up with BWT; I added him in later as a weak town.

You're not moving down; you were a moderate mafia last time (a full cycle previously) as well; I noted that I found timmer's points compelling.

I have to admit that I'm having trouble following Trice's suspicions, so I can understand the perspective that they're manufactured mud.

GTH I'd say that's a good look for Scotty though.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Scotty's confusion about Vompatti may provide us with a unique opportunity to develop our reads on him. If he's bad (and Vompatti too), then that means he already knew his team mate was dead and was being fake in his assertion that he thought the Vomps kill and I fit together. Who believes that to be the case?

I am given pause. He responded pretty quickly to my reveal that Vomps may have been scum when I'd kind of expect that to freeze someone who'd otherwise thought they were cheating the system (with a fake Vompatti-related read).

I need to take a step back from Scotty and take a look. It's food for thought.

triceratopzeuhl wrote:

timmer wrote:I'm actually a bit weirded out by the fact that trice hasn't voted for MM, yet.

I was painting a new lid for my composter up until about 2 minutes ago. I am willing to vote MM to save myself, but will not be surprised if he is good. He is in fact on the golden suspect list which is a point against him

MovingPictures07 wrote:Just quickly reading through, I see the Trice v. JJJ discussion as, from most to least likely:
1) Town v. Town
2) Mafia v. Mafia
3) Mafia Trice v. Town JJJ
4) Town Trice v. Mafia JJJ

5. town trice v. serial killer JJJ

I'm not really hunting for the SK specifically. Not sure where to fit that into there.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Spoiler: show

MovingPictures07 wrote:MP's End of Day 3 Rainbow - GY!BE Rainbow #9

Strong Town:
timmer

Moderate Town:
Epignosis
Sloonei
Boomslang

Weak Town:
JaggedJimmyJay
triceratopzeuhl
birdwithteeth11
nijuukyugou
sig

Weak Mafia:
LoRab

Moderate Mafia:
Dom
Metalmarsh89

Strong Mafia:
Scotty

This should say Day 4. Holy shit, it's Day 4.

Oops, I forgot BWT. Sorry dude. I'll add him in the weak town.

This should say Day 4. Holy shit, it's Day 4.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Someone throw a compelling MM or Trice quote at me. I wish I had time to ISO these guys. Fuck. Not enough time.

I listed a number of Marmot concerns in this ISO. Dunno if you saw that yet.

I quickly glanced at it. Let me take a more detailed look. Thanks.

MP's End of Day 3 Rainbow - GY!BE Rainbow #9

Strong Town:
timmer

Moderate Town:
Epignosis
Sloonei
Boomslang

Weak Town:
JaggedJimmyJay
triceratopzeuhl
nijuukyugou
sig

Weak Mafia:
LoRab

Moderate Mafia:
Dom
Metalmarsh89

Strong Mafia:
Scotty

I guess I'm throwing my vote on the MM train. I do think there have been plenty of reasons to call him suspicious. I'm just nervous about it. Ugh.

Someone throw a compelling MM or Trice quote at me. I wish I had time to ISO these guys. Fuck. Not enough time.

I saw Scotty's behavior as way more potentially opportunistic re: JJJ than Trice, but maybe that's just me getting hot and bothered about Scotty in the moment. No one wants to join me anyway, so I guess I'll let that sit for now. Scotty is high on my pursuit list though.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:I suppose; I would give it more consideration in a mafia-aligned Scotty/Trice coordinated attack kind of situation. So if one of them flipped bad, it's worth entertaining.

If Trice wanted to pick an easy target though, surely he could have picked someone other than you? You're not an easy target.

I'm not. I'm a case that may have appeared ripe for the taking though given Golden and Epi's misgivings, and Marmot's early vote. Easy target or not I'm the most viable alternative and the tally reflected that for most of the phase.

I'm thinking about it. I struggle to understand why a civilian would develop such a strong, unflinching read based upon a night kill target.

I do consider that Trice's behavior is opportunistic precisely for that reason, but likewise I'm struggling to see how his behavior jives at all with any decent mafia-aligned strategy.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:MP, what makes you nervous about an MM lynch?

I'm not really sure. I still suspect him at least moderately. I think I sensed genuine frustration when I accused him of potentially faking his curse.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:I'm actually of the opinion that Trice has accomplished one of the ultimate cases of tunneling. Because I just don't see the odds on JJJ being bad to be that great.

Why?

My tinfoil read right now is you and JJJ as teammates. This kind of rhetoric doesn't help.

I'll create and throw down another rainbow, and this time I'll try to dig into some ISOs and actually substantiate some of this stuff, but no promises. My time for mafia is going to continue to dwindle.

timmer wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

timmer wrote:I still think it should be MM, today, MP.

Why?

I think trice may have tilted. I don't like how many people came in early and voted him and have not come back. I don't see enough evidence against JJJ. The Scotty thing is too fresh and new to establish with little time left. MM hasn't actually pursued baddies all game, except for his Timmer ten-minute thing which he inexplicably held onto for 3 games days.

I think MM is the way to go.

Yeah, that's all fair. I'll probably move my vote that way.

Something's keeping me from feeling very strongly about MM. He was my biggest suspect last Day phase; by all means, he still should be. But I don't know. I'm a bit nervous about it.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:I honestly am town reading Trice still. I think he's just gotten himself into an aggressive and tunneling mindset. This is the Trice meta I remember.

It would represent some of the most intense tunneling I can remember encountering. I don't get the impression his bad read on me ever developed in an authentic way, it simply happened. And when it happened, there was no alternative, no other possible explanation, and every post I've made has been evil incarnate.

It's too aggressive and illogical to fit a mafia agenda.

That's exactly what Dom did in P&R as Andy to Leslie, as well as what most of the alive players did to Jerry, that got him and the rest of town in trouble. If anything I'd say that attribute is more likely town than not.

Do you feel it fits any better in a scenario where a trice lynch becomes genuinely plausible/probable and a standing JJJ counterwagon is the most viable preventive measure? I've gotten the impression that he's started attacking me with such rabid vigor because lynching me is his surest ticket to Night 4.

I suppose; I would give it more consideration in a mafia-aligned Scotty/Trice coordinated attack kind of situation. So if one of them flipped bad, it's worth entertaining.

If Trice wanted to pick an easy target though, surely he could have picked someone other than you? You're not an easy target.

timmer wrote:I still think it should be MM, today, MP.

Why?

Every time Scotty gets brought up in conversation as suspicious, the thread has drifted elsewhere. I think his teammates are directing the suspicion away from him.

I found Scotty suspicious in the beginning of the game, then let it go. I shouldn't have let it go. Let me resurrect some of that shit because I really want him dead.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:I honestly am town reading Trice still. I think he's just gotten himself into an aggressive and tunneling mindset. This is the Trice meta I remember.

It would represent some of the most intense tunneling I can remember encountering. I don't get the impression his bad read on me ever developed in an authentic way, it simply happened. And when it happened, there was no alternative, no other possible explanation, and every post I've made has been evil incarnate.

It's too aggressive and illogical to fit a mafia agenda.

That's exactly what Dom did in P&R as Andy to Leslie, as well as what most of the alive players did to Jerry, that got him and the rest of town in trouble. If anything I'd say that attribute is more likely town than not.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Alright, I no longer am considering the idea that MM is faking; he's clearly trying to contribute. I think we have 3 legit curses floating around.

Maybe. But you're going to have to point it out to me when you're done. Because I am not seeing any significant contributions from MM today outside of him using his "curse" to state his civ and bad reads.

Linki MP:A vote at Scotty? How come? We have 2 notable trains to consider, and you are willing to throw your vote away instead?

Linki2: Okay I've now had like 10 linkis. Y'all need to post slower.

Linki3: DAMMIT STOPPIT! :P

Linki4: How are you so certain Scotty is bad?

Linki5: Another vote for MM? You're making me consider now...

Linki6: But...what's your reasoning?

You don't think Scotty's vote for JJJ is total shit? I can smell it all the way from Texas.

Scotty wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:I honestly am town reading Trice still. I think he's just gotten himself into an aggressive and tunneling mindset. This is the Trice meta I remember.

I also view trice as good

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Scotty wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:I don't want to lynch Trice or JJJ. I want to lynch Scotty. Let's do it.

Low hanging fruit, Mp.

You are low hanging fruit? Bullshit.

No, it's not bullshit and you know it.

Also I changed my vote to MM

You've been in catchup mode for days, you barely have contributed anything upon the chances you have had to post, and now you come in and drop the laziest vote ever on the second highest vote wagon, JJJ, for bunk reasons. "He's leading us astray". That's nonsense. Everyone is accountable for their own votes.

Boomslang wrote:Fun fact: Lorab only started posting in "sad" and "sadness" acronyms after Trice used the Donald Trump syntax.

triceratopzeuhl wrote:Crooked Epignosis thinks he can keep throwing whoppers after a civvie insanified him, sad!

I have no idea if that means anything, but it's just funky enough that it tickles my brain.

Linki w/MP: And my half-baked theory is that Trice triggered Lorab's curse with that post.
Linki w/MP2: Uh, starting a lynch this late? Do you really not believe in either of the big trains going right now, or are you conveniently copping out of culpability?
Linki w/Scotty: DAMMIT I TYPE SLOW

What do you think I'm doing?

Scotty is bad.

Scotty wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:I don't want to lynch Trice or JJJ. I want to lynch Scotty. Let's do it.

Low hanging fruit, Mp.

You are low hanging fruit? Bullshit.

I honestly am town reading Trice still. I think he's just gotten himself into an aggressive and tunneling mindset. This is the Trice meta I remember.

I don't want to lynch Trice or JJJ. I want to lynch Scotty. Let's do it.