The Syndicate

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Epignosis wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

Epignosis wrote:I am pleased that everyone who hinted lost.

I warn people not to do that shit. People do it anyway. And I don't have to lift a finger against them.

You're so evil.

Sorry Epi, but I did ask you permission before I started hinting. I figured out info dumping would be fine as long as I only implied it. Well, karma is a bitch.

I have a philosophy on info-dumping. I try to make it so that the dumper punishes himself.

I am with this 100%. Nothing against DDL here, I just don't like sharing non-public info in thread or role-claiming. Rare that game events punish the person who does those things, so I felt vindicated by it.

Anyway, Epi. Terrific game. I loved the host posts and pretty much everything about the game.

Hahahaha Epi that story is epic.

Golden wrote:I knew Russ was the guy who should be lynched when I was

In all seriousness though, if I was in this lylo my order would have probably been DDL, rico, made, russ.

Well played guys.

Thanks Golden! I super honored you'd say that.

Rico, super well played. I probably would have been more paranoid about you if I were civ, but we were irrelevant for each other. I just wanted someone to make one vote that wasn't me. :P

Haha classic MP.

So excite!

Wait a second! Hey Epi, my recruitment power didn't make it onto your reveal page. It was real, right?

Oh! And I think Rico and I survived back-to-back NKs, although I wasn't notified about mine so I'm not sure. I chose not to kill last night because I knew I needed one person to vote wrong today to win, and that was easier with 4 people voting than with 3.

Rico, I guess my post saying DDL was Moloch, Ozy, or Manhattan made it pretty easy for you haha.

A couple things:

1) Everyone played SUPER well. Especially Cookie, to whom I owe an apology for continually underestimating. You played off that super well.

2) All my rl concerns and times being out were 100% legit. I wouldn't fake that stuff to win.

3) I realize I've probably lost myself my next 5 games, but it was so worth it.

Linki: I knew it! I knew Ozy was sending people false info, but I couldn't figure out why. Why did you do that? And how did you figure out my recruitment power?

And Rico, Derf didn't matter. If he targeted me I'd have recruited him. And I presume you used up your NK survival, so I would have killed one and either recruited or won the lynch in a tie I decided against the other.

No civ EVER targeted me. Except whoever put me in that 4-way lynch early on, which I suppose didn't count.

Rico why do you say you were forced to target MM and DDL? Had you figured out that one was Manhattan?

Uhh.....no......

What was your win con????? I was all set to win alone!

Ricochet wrote:A Host Post is being written.

Thank God.

Made, in Zelda I was Ganondorf, leader of the civs.

Wow we are lucky Rico told you the real time.

Well played, guys. Here's hoping we got Moloch!

Made wrote:What the fuck man, voted ddl, shit my bad everyone.

What do you mean? You meant to vote DDL, right??

Yeah, I have to stick with mine and go DDL as well.

I'm gonna have a heart attack if I wait any longer anyway.

Made has been awful quiet so far today - just a couple quick questions. We're in crunch time, anything to say?

Linki: Well, that answers my question, I guess. :/

Ricochet wrote:Since it's now less than 30 minutes to the end of the world, let's unwind for 30 seconds with the irony that Russ is super paranoid about profiling the LMS after hosting the only game in Syndicate history (so far) in which the LMS crushed it. :P

Haha, I hadn't thought of that! As a host I absolutely loved it, but now I pity Snow Dog and Epi. I guess our host gets to see the table turned now.

Linki: It was The Hobbit. juliets won as Smaug the Dragon.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:It's all a balance between what Moloch can do, and what he has to do. If he has powerful abilities, then he needs to have a difficult wincon. And vice-versa. That's why it's hard to predict, since we know neither his wincon nor his abilities. The host could give him any arbitrary limitations in order to balance a powerful ability or an easy wincon.

Yeah, it's possible I guess. I'm just saying that it seems far-fetched, because it doesn't seem like it would make winning much harder for Moloch. And it would leave the possibility of no one winning at all, if he won but too soon.

Rico, to your point about me: I have had to reach a little more to find people to suspect lately, because the people I was very suspicious of were either lynched or NKed. I think if you read back you'll see it's a natural response to game flow.

Linki: You're right; figuring out how the game would go after this lynch is a shot in the dark. Hopefully we can get him today and not have to worry about it.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Normally I'd say "sorry LoRab, this was a stupid mistake", but I feel like I'm starting to sound like a broken record.

I REALLY need a break from mafia.

Not much I can say other than the fact it was legit. I've been feeling pretty ashamed for my consecutive failures in lynching.

And yes, I really need a break from mafia. After this game don't expect me to see here again for a few months.

This could be fear that saying sorry to too many civ lynches in a row would get suspicious. To Paranoid Russti it reads forced.

Russtifinko wrote:And where at you at right now in terms of suspicions?

I honestly don't suspect any of the three. Whoever of you is mafia played a very good game.

Of course I have to choose one, though.

I had some tinfoils and weird feelings about Rico all game, but overall I think he's playng a terrific civ game. Plus he had some tunneling and stubborn ways of playing that seemed natural, and that a mafia player might avoid making, such as his long tunneling on Elo, or the accusations he made over a bunch of random things I said. Questioning something as a baddie can be risky, because the person you're questioning might call you out for trying to manipulate what they said. And I've seen Rico doing a lot of playe that I could call Risky.

Don't really feel like voting Made. Both him and Bass had pretty clean civ games, specially Bass. If they win, it's a win we can't do anything about, imo. The feeling I have about him is good, although not very developed, and I haven't seen anything bad about him or Bass. I think a vote on him would be too blind unless we can find a good reason.

You are the one I'd vote for right now. I have a civ read on you, but the weakest of the three. Compared to Rico, I could see you as a player who has been careful through all game, trying to seem contributive but without taking big risks. You have mostly stayed out of people's radars for most of the game, save a few mild suspicions. Of course, a lot of that is probably related to your playstyle, even if you are a bad. But overall, I don't see many signs of a player who takes risks and plays the game to the fullest, and you give me a feeling of blending in sometimes. Yet, if I vote for you, it will still be a vote for someone who in my opinion looks more civ than otherwise.

This is difficult as fuck.

Thanks for the responses, DDL. Ugh, you seem pretty genuine! But I'm in the same spot as you: basically, if Rico is bad, he suckered me completely and deserves the win. Made could be, but reads good in the time he was here, even though it was relatively short. I had been leaning somewhat civ on you, and most of my recent pings on you are coming from trying to fit someone into the role of Moloch. It's hard to fit Moloch to any of you, but harder for the other two than you.

Linki: Holy linki that's a lot of linki! Just kidding, Made. I dunno how to respond to your point except to say that lots of surprising things have happened: I was surprised by the huge number of posts to start the game, the crunch time craziness on lynches, and Cookie flipping bad, to name a few things.

DDL, as far as the kill theories: Big Figure could kill and silence at the same time, right? So wouldn't it stand to reason that Moloch could kill and use whatever other powers he has at the same time? I suppose the lengthening the game win con is plausible, but for any LMS to win a game it has to be super long, so that seems a little redundant. And Cookie had the kill during two times it was missed, if I'm not mistaken.

Double linki: Ignore my above defense, then. I suppose I'm just generally a very surprised person.

Rereading DDL from Cookie's death onward, his style didn't really change much. So again, not much to go on with that theory for me.

I did find these two posts, which I found kinda pingy:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Normally I'd say "sorry LoRab, this was a stupid mistake", but I feel like I'm starting to sound like a broken record.

I REALLY need a break from mafia.

This could be fear that saying sorry to too many civ lynches in a row would get suspicious. To Paranoid Russti it reads forced.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Seeing Ricochet defend himself against G-Man's post, I realize I should probably do the same.

G-Man wrote:Why Dragon Might Be The One To Lynch:

4- He's kept himself just suspicious enough to merit the Inmates keeping him around for a non-Inmate lynch. He benefited from his own misguided hunting because the Inmates never felt threatened by him.

4- This is wrong, even though I can't prove it. If I was seen by the inmates as not a threat, it's because my baddie hunting in this game was unsuccessful, and that wasn't intentional from my part. Besides, considering there were two nights where the baddies failed to kill for some reason, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they had the intent to kill me in those nights and failed for some reason.

This is DDL's response to a case from G-Man that I didn't pay much attention to at the time. The post is edited for length, and to me the rest of the points don't add much in our current situation, but DDL's response to Point 4 interested me. He seems to imply that he can't be NKed, and that the baddies might have tried to NK him. I can only think of 3 roles that might have some type of NK protection that isn't used on a specific Night, and all 3 have secrets: Ozymandias, Manhattan, and Moloch. He also says "for some reason" twice, which fits the Llama Adverb(ial Clause) Theorem. It's goofy, but it did get us our first baddie in this game.

I'm leaning toward a DDL vote at the moment, but would like to hear from him before voting.

Linki: Hi DDL. Do you have anything to say about the the hints that you can't be NK'ed? And where at you at right now in terms of suspicions?

Thanks for the heads up on 2 hours! The polls have been ending around 9, so I might possibly have missed it.

Ricochet wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:Yeah I don't completely understand that either.

Hey so reading back, you and DDL went after each other on Night 6, and DH did have him pegged as Moloch or possibly a Watchman. Has your opinion of DDL improved since then?

Can't say it has. I still mostly believe he could fit the indy theory the way I put it in reply to Made (it's posted earlier, in my big post with which I opened D10). DH's possible peg also still weighs like, say, 5% to me, even though we can never know for sure until the game ends. He didn't say "Moloch or Watchmen" the first time and, if he really checked DDL's alignment, he wouldn't have been ambivalent about it if the result would have come back as Watchmen. As I've said, DH's wording was so peculiar, his Moloch peg not really resulting a whole lot from his summarization. This can be understood as a baseless claim, but to me, that's just it, why word it like "oh that guy sure joked a lot about lynching someone only to do it on the second and he also forgot to water my plants. He must be a serial killer" unless you're trying to do a smart plant.

Russtifinko wrote:The thing around that time about Big Figure being desperate to get DDL lynched was weird as well. It seems like he was trying to imply a very important civ role, or a role BF would need dead that couldn't be NKed.

LoRab was saying she picked up on a hint from DDL. I didn't get it at the time. Do you guys have a better idea what that was all about?

Nope. I had a spin on it, but then DDL said it's misconstruing and that he'd rather see the claim not be understood rather than taken the wrong way - which I have no problem acknowledging. If the keyword is "[Day] lynched", then I truly can't get the subtlety of it; it sounds so generic.

Yeah I agree; DH's wording sounds like something I would say if I were trying to hint without info dropping and had no case to back it up.

Thanks for the input on the role hint.

Still not sure how I feel about the idea that Moloch's behavior would change drastically after the baddies were eliminated; I've checked for that briefly and didn't see huge changes with Rico or Made. Haven't finished up the full reread of DDL.

While rereading, I think I just put something together about what you were saying earlier about your secret message, Rico. It's informative, but hopefully not germane to the discussion today. If it is idk what we could do about it.

The thing around that time about Big Figure being desperate to get DDL lynched was weird as well. It seems like he was trying to imply a very important civ role, or a role BF would need dead that couldn't be NKed.

LoRab was saying she picked up on a hint from DDL. I didn't get it at the time. Do you guys have a better idea what that was all about?

Yeah I don't completely understand that either.

Hey so reading back, you and DDL went after each other on Night 6, and DH did have him pegged as Moloch or possibly a Watchman. Has your opinion of DDL improved since then?

Holy cow, Rico, that thing is thorough. Good work.

And Rico, it read to me like DDL definitely will be back before the Day ends, just possibly not very long before.

Reread Made. Unfortunately for me, Rico and DDL are two of the highest posters, so I'm slogging through that now.

Wooo, laptop!

I'll be around the rest of the day.

Doing some rereads and will post thoughts/observations as I have them.

Rico, I had forgotten your plea to Derf not to silence anyone last night. And the weirdness I saw from DDL was his lament about possibly winning while hunting poorly. Not sure it's alignment indicative. It just seemed strange to say, to me

Ok, DDL.

So does this mean Rico is silenced? That seems super bizarre to me if it's true.

My thoughts right now: DDL has a really bad voting record, but has posted well, minus what I thought was some minor weirdness last night. Made is basically a huge question mark. I felt ok about Bass, but that was ages ago, and Made unfortunately joined at a point where he couldn't really contribute much. If Rico is bad he's played one of the best games I've seen, and I may just have to resign myself to losing if he is. Super duper paranoid me thinks maybe he should get a vote just because he does look the best, but it's not something I'm seriously considering right now.

Who's silenced today, if anyone, by the way?

I haven't gotten any coded messages. So that night post looks super ominous, but it looks like no one's dead?

RIP MM. Sorry I was wrong about you.

This is so frustrating, and nerve wracking. It's basically a shot in the dark trying to catch a player with no ties to any teammates. And we've done so well on baddies who do have that. I could easily convince myself that any one of you is or isn't Moloch, and even though my feelings on some of you are stronger, it's tough to say if there's anything approaching hard evidence.

If I survive the night I'll be around from 12 eastern to lynch time tomorrow, and I intend to use pretty much all of it to catch Moloch.

I'll also say I'm glad to see signs of baddie hunting from Made. I know he came in in a rough spot being so late. I had felt pretty good about Bass, but the continuous silence from that role due to the double replacement was making me edgy. Made is starting to allay that for me a bit.

Holy cow, what a weird NK. GMan was at the top of my list for today.

Posting from phone - I'm now getting ready for the wedding where I'll be best man. Sucks to not be around during such an intense phase.

I'm going to go ahead and vote MM now because I likely won't make it on later. As someone mentioned, his voting record is somewhat spotty. More importantly for me, he's working very hard to avoid a probably dead Rorschach, which an LMS arguably has more incentive to do than a civ, and his general tone has seemed a bit more indie-ish to me. I can't really put my finger on why, and I think it was more true a few days ago than now, but he's still my best guess

Again, sorry to not be more involved today. Good luck guys. If we're still playing and I'm still alive on Monday, I will be around all day

Holy fuck. I shocked Cookie was bad. Scotty I am glad you were able to convince me, but sorry it was too late for you.

People have brought up how to hunt Moloch. I agree with some analysis posted before, and clearly it seems Moloch would want to try to hunt baddies with the best of them. Then again, I could understand a quieter one too. Ugh I wish I wasn't so busy on Saturday, I think the next lynch will be pretty important

Honestly, I don't see any way this lunch goes any way other than Cookie today, and I'm curious enough to give my stamp of approval. I'm already on Rorschach's list after yesterday. And Scotty was the player I most believed was civ, so I'm willing to put a little faith there as well.

Voting now since I'll be out bachelor partying most of the evening.

Rico is also right that MMs voting record is pretty bad. To me it's comparable with DDLs because even though MM has lunched fewer civs he's missed more votes. I'm not spotless in the category either, I'm just saying.

Hey all,

So I'm throwing a bachelor party today (yay!), and that's more intensive than I thought. I probably won't be around in the evening at all. The wedding is Saturday, so unless epi extends that day (please?), you can basically expect nothing from me on D8. I know it sucks at this point in the game, sorry for that.

I'm thinking of voting Cookie today, based mainly on the strength of Scotty's suspicion. I'm still struggling with why Cookie would kill Scotty when it so clearly incriminates her. Then again, she looked most likely to die anyway, so maybe it could be preemptive revenge

I also am still very suspicious of GMan, for what I elaborated on yesterday. It doesn't seem like others share my feelings as much, there

Dammit. Sorry LoRab. I guess you were right, I really can't read you.

Scotty, glad you are back in commission. You seem really certain about Cookie. I know I've been defending her hard all game long, but you're right that she's not entirely new. I'm willing to at least consider what you have to say about her.

G-Man wrote:I'm going to have to think on this and decide between Cookie and Dragon. My spreadsheet is telling me that LoRab's Day 2 vote was too attention-drawing for a baddie. Indie perhaps, but not a baddie.

You keep bringing up this spreadsheet, and it actually seems like a damned good one. Anything else from it you can share?

And LoRab, it's not making any assumptions at all. DDL was asking whether people think Bernard would have named himself, not saying that he did. Anyway, I'm not gonna put words into his mouth. If you don't get what he was saying, you should either ask him or read the exchange again.

Clearly I don't know how to read you. It's our first game together. You seem bad to me. If I'm wrong, help me get it right so we can win.

Ricochet wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:
You're also making up stuff about a silencer probably being gone to throw shade at MM, when every indication is that both silencers are alive and well. You're looking more and more like BF to me.

Do others think all this is weird, or am I alone here?

I don't know, the last time we've seen signs of silencing (prior to D6) was D3, when Long Con confirmed it and MM hinted at it. Everyone posted D4 and D5. Only LC and juliets were killed in that time, in case Derf was actually struck down.

I thought the other Day that MM's silencing seemed really genuine, because it copied Roxy's method from a past game (a cheeky way to say FU to the silencer by spamming all the other sections but the one you're forbidden from; it was called the "loudest silencing"). But this kind of copy is, in itself, interpretable, come to think it. It certainly wasn't original, so there is a chance it might have been fake as well.

Are there any other indications of both Derf and BF being alive, for you?

linki: no, he posted today

Ok, thanks Rico. Weird that everyone posted D4 and 5, I appreciate you checking that for me. I don't have any other indications that Derf is alive; two silences were it. In the case of BF, Epi has always posted messages saying when a faction is eliminated, so I don't have direct in game evidence there, but a very strong host tendency.

It's SO STRANGE to me that Derf and BF would not silence D4 and 5 and then silence D6 and 7. Like, it makes no sense whatsoever. And if MM faked yesterday, it's starting to look like someone is faking today too. Which would be either really extremely ballsy or the height of stupidity.

Maybe I'm grasping at straws with the GMan thing, I dunno. Given all this, I'm gonna go ahead and vote LoRab. She hasn't managed to improve my opinion of her, my access will be spotty this evening, and I'm unsure enough on GMan that I need to give him at least one more day of scrutiny.

We've yet to hear from MM as well, right?

G+Man, yes, the exclamation points are supposed to be question marks. I hadn't found the correct button on the keyboard yet.

At least you've shown you were consistent with your MP suspicion. However, you still severely misrepresented what went on at the end of yesterday's poll. You were the last vote and you knew it, and now you're acting like it was some major shock that two people were blocked and an absentee player didn't vote. THAT'S what you said was disappointing, not the result.

And I just had a thought: you said MP probably made a fool's bet, knowing he'd lose because he was bad, and looking dumb would make him seem more civ. I think maybe you made a dirty bet. Itäs a win+win for you: you get the huge victorious sig, make MP look silly, and get to say to the thread: "hey look, I was protecting civs, guys! I can't be bad!"

You're also making up stuff about a silencer probably being gone to throw shade at MM, when every indication is that both silencers are alive and well. You're looking more and more like BF to me.

Do others think all this is weird, or am I alone here?

DDL, the picture doesnät matter as far as the game. It's just an idiom.

Linki: LoRab, on your point to DDL, he wasn't trying to eliminate the people Bernard named from suspicion. He was trying to figure out who Bernard himself was and eliminate that player from suspicion.
And Rico, your last post is exactly what I was thinking.

Crap. And by LinkiÖ I mean Linki:

Thanks, DDL. Some good points. Do you have to quote where DH says you might be a Watchman as well? It would make me feel better. I'd get it myself, but I really need to get some errands done. I mafia'ed way too long this morning already.

LinkiÖ Cookie, linki is short for linkitis. Itäs what happens when someone has posted since when you started writing your post. The forum, instead of posting your message immediately, pulls up the recent posts, and people tend to tack responses to those on the bottom of their posts and put the word linki before it

WIFOM stands for Wine In Front Of Me. Itäs from the Princess Bride. Video anyone, please? Basically it's when you try too hard to think what a baddie would do until you think yourself in circles and think everything is a possibility. I find Occam's Razor to be the best WIFOM cure, although it's not foolproof

Double LinkiÖ Ninja'd. Well played.

LinkiÖ 3x: Cookie, LoRab didn't do that, G+Man did.

I was about to go haead and vote LoRab, but I'm gonna hold off and give some consideration to G+Man as well.

Hey, I found the ? now! Still no dash, though

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Do you think Bernard would suspect himself?

DDL, it worries me that you care, frankly. I mean, I know some people just like to figure out all the roles. But baddies have a lot more to gain from figuring out who Bernard is than we do.

As far as votes from yesterday, I still can't figure out a civ reasoning behind G+Man's vote. He knew he was probably the last vote, with 2 silences and Tiny being inactive. He clearly enjoyed the power position he was in, but basically didnät base his vote on his feelings on the players at all, the way I read it.

G-Man wrote:Oh this scenario is almost too delicious to be true. Decisions decisions.

G-Man wrote:I don't feel the need to protect either of the two players with 2 votes.

G-Man wrote:But I don't feel the need to vote for them either.

It's a chaos vote, plain and simple, and on D6 that doesn't sit right with me. By this point, civs need to be having reads and ACTING ON THEM.

G+Man has probably moved up to my #2 lynch candidate based on that, although for me LoRab is a clear #1.

Sorry, I know I've been a bit more scattered today, suspicion+wise. But weäve had two civ lynches in a row that frankly were pretty terrible, and most people have played a part in that. So I feel less trusting today than previously.

Linki: I got the picture thing.

G+Man, what!!! You clearly knew when you were posting that you were the last vote to come in; why are you now acting like you were praying for someone to swoop in a get the correct person last minute when you made it a 3+way tie!! We had discussed extensively that MP and MM were out, and it was pretty clear Tiny wasn't coming back. The situation wasn't disappointing, you loved it!

I'd have to go back and look, but I'm positive we've had multiple players silenced before. Does anyone know whether it has happened every day! And G+Man, are you saying you're convinced MM is mafia! Because that's what it sounds like you're saying.

Holy shit, dude, you are rocketing up my list today.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:For the record, I don't think Big Figure forgot to send a kill in on Night 5, not if he still managed to silence/voteblock a player.

Thanks for the remiinder on this, MM. I saw no kill and was about to go all gung ho for a Made lynch. However, it seems there is something besides missed PMs though, since the silence went through. Almost looks to me like someone is doing a very underwhelming job of framing Made.

LoRab wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Do you think Bernard would suspect himself?

I'm not convinced Bernard wrote the list.

And, still, more suspects than possible slots.

Why would Bernard not write the list! It literally says "From Bernard" at the top. It really doesn't get any clearer than that.

Oh, the picture. lol

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

Ricochet wrote:The problem with your viewpoint is that its reverse can be just as plausible, in that a mafia member left solo or an LMS can feel that he'll risk detection by staying hidden, sidelining, whatnot, so he'll adopt being in front, hunting, develop a solid gameplay and making it look like his efforts have simply gone awry. That's my profile of you right now, that's all. I'm not automatically adverse to mislynchers - like, say, llama is, given how he hunted my ass and mislynched me for having a stinking vote record and always falling outside the circle of those who caught mafia - but I've said that I don't feel good about you anymore compared to other hunters who didn't bring mafia meat to supper either (even if you did, once, back on D1).

Oh, I'm equally anticipating being night killed for my efforts, as well. I'm doubtful the remaining baddies will let me join them in lylo, if it'll go that far. What you ask regarding night killing is funny, since you did kill me in Guess Who out of worries that I'll be a threat. If you ask me, MP was kept in the game due to the high potential of being lynched. That he himself started a huge case on a civ Eloh must have been even more of a delight for BF and Moloch.

And again, I'm not seeing the preposterous heat. You're questioning my votes and reads on you and I'm replying on this matter. Others, except MM, have barely chimed in. I think some have even called you slightly civ.

Okay, I exaggerated about the heat thing. My point is, my playstyle is risky, and would at least make people pay attention on me every time a civ got lynched, because I had my hand in every civ lynch in this game (a fact I'm not proud of). This is highly WIFOM-y though, so I'll stop arguing in this direction.

You have a point though, in which most players in this game haven't really suspected me. Other than you and MM, it's only soft suspicions.

Now answer me this question: assume you are Big Figure. You have to get rid of me, just like you have to everybody. There are two methods that you can emply to do that. One is the night kill, the other is a lynch. Based on how I've played this game, which one would be the option of your choice?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

Ricochet wrote:My reads of you (DDL) worsened each time, over several days, and I wouldn't say they started from tagging you civ, only not my likely Mafia candidate.

No, but they took a quick turn for worse after Night 5.

And I think that, whoever Big Figure is, he's pretty desperate to get me lynched right now.

I really have to make an ISO on you though, because right now I only have his hunch.

Bullshit.

Nobody is "desperate" to get you lynched, or at least not showing it. Ricochet might be the closest, but I think you have created a theory here with the intent of fitting Ricochet into that theory.

I recognize I might be wrong about Ricochet being the best fit, but I can guarantee you it's the opposite of what you said. I didn't craft the theory so I could fit Ricochet in (that'd be silly). I crafted the theory first, and now I'm trying to fit someone in.

There IS one player who is desperate to get me lynched. That's a fact. The question is who.

The question is whom. Serioúsly though, bit dramatic here, right DDL! (Yes I went with exclamation points as question mark substitutes.)

I really appreciated your ISO on Ricochet, by the way, especially since I needed to reread him myself. A couple things stood out to me:

1) What you called Rico's first meaningful post actually contains a mild defense of Sloonei. That makes me feel worse about him.
2) You didn't talk about this in the ISO, since that was about Rico, but DH said you were his best guess at Moloch. Any idea why that would be, given what we now know about his role!

I feel like things are getting murkier. I felt pretty good about DDL and Rico yesterday. I'm still not getting overt baddie vibes from either, but they do look somewhat worse to me than before.

What does everyone else think about the poll yesterday! I'm going to look closer at it now. I just realized that IF a baddie were in a lynch poll that close, theyäd probably want to save thier vote to protect themselves. Although in that scenario they look even worse if they cast a deciding vote on a civ, so who knows. If they weren't one of the main candidates being discussed, they could pretty much blend in wherever, I suppose, or create chaos, for example, by creating a 3+way tie.

Linki: thank you! Someone agrees that LoRab isn't trying that hard. Although I'm a little surprised it took you that long to come around.

And I get what you're saying about Cookie, but I still don't buy her being bad. Every time I've played with a new player, they get accused of parroting others. They don't have the benefits of experience or meta to go on, and frankly, when you're getting your bearings, following others, even subconsciously, is just the easiest way to keep oriented.

G+Man, what are we supposed to be figuring out!

Yeah Im here. More traveling last night, Im on a spree haha. I was wondering the same thing, though, DDL. Who is silenced today

Im on my girlfriends computer, and its an American style keyboard but she has it set up to type swedish letters too. Which means I don't know how to type question marks. So please try to notice when I'm asking questions of people.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Scotty wrote:This question is posed for all involved:
Take a deep breath. Lay down, put your feet off, take your trousers off, as you will.
Attempt to discard any reads you currently have on people. It's hard, I know.

Now.

Looking at votes alone, who is the most suspicious player left, in your opinion and why?

Ricochet, because his only 'meaningful' vote in the first five days was to push LoRab to 3-4 against espers on Day 4.

Huh! This is an interesting answer. I have him as a fairly civvie read, but I haven't actually looked back at all his votes.

RIP MP

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:@MM: But what if MP knew Bernard's role from another source? For instance, a BTSC with Silk Spectre, or a message from Ozymandias (since apparently Ozy is sending messages).

That would also mean Bernard is Juliets, since MP's tunneling on Eloh only really started on D5 I think.

DDL, this seems far-fetched to me. It's purporting that things happened that we don't even know CAN happen. And as I reminded Scotty before, Ozymandias likely doesn't have any more info than we do.

G-Man wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I dunno if we should be dwelling too much on vote patterns at this point. With only one inmate left, they have no one to protect but him/herself.

Linki @DDL: I'm not sure how that would help us out? If MP knew Bernard's role and tracked Elohcin to visit Bernard, wouldn't he consider the possibilities of who could have visited Bernard? Maybe he just tunneled, but he did bet his mafia reputation on it (whatever that means).

I don't see how it helps us either, but there's nothing bad about speculating.

Actually, the fact MP bet his reputation would make more sense if he had night info and thought the probability of that info being wrong was too low (and in this case it probably was).

I think MP07 just said he'd bet his reputation on Eloh being bad to be dramatic. It's probably not the first time he's said it but it might be the last. I just happened to be in a snarky enough mood to call him out on it because my spreadsheet suggested otherwise by a long shot. Depending on the type of tracker Epi used, it's possible he tracked Eloh and misinterpreted the result. As a tracker though, you have to be aware of the other roles that might lead you to such a misinterpretation. I think he let thread content and player reads/vibes get in the way of his understanding of the role mechanics.

Your spreadsheet seems pretty good. What else does it say?

Scotty, I'm an Occam's Razor kinda guy, generally speaking. I figure why should there be 3 silencers if that's not in the roles and we've seen no evidence of it so far.