The Syndicate

Anyway BDH, well played, and thanks for leading the civs to victory!

Scotty wrote:Yay! Good game guys, especially BDH for cracking the code and getting 11 items! Jesus.

I played like dogpoop this game and almost feel as though we won despite my play. So much stuff happening behind the scenes I had no idea who was who towards the end. I definitely wanted timmer dead and didn't think for a sec that Russ was bad, but the others were a crapshoot. The beginning 3 phases of this game was quite demoralizing for me, where I was one of the top vote getters for the first 3 lynches. Then replacing in to rabbit just to be under fire again for similar reasons, I was ready to walk away from the game. So yeah, this was not the most fun game for me, but I'm glad the more well-minded civs saved the day.

LoRab, you asked me to answer you in post game why I killed Russ when I did? I was having a very busy spell, thus reflecting my segmented posts and thought processes early on, so I listed the top 3 people I was suspicious of early on. I knew that the Engagement Ring could make someone die in place of someone else, and while I wanted to use it later on someone else getting lynched that seemed civ and someone that didn't, I just kept getting under fire for whatever reason. So I gave it to whom I thought in that moment looked be fishiest, and it was between Epi, INH, and Russ, none of which were on my suspect list. I was hoping it wouldn't be traced back to me if I was wrong, and I agonized til a little before deadline which I would throw to the fire, and if it had been one of the other 2 it would have been game changing. But I was wrong. Very wrong

Then the host post listed exactly what I did with terrible consequences.
Then Russ immediately switched in to another role, assuming the likeness of someone else, and (rightly so) holding a grudge against me.
I wasn't sure if I could talk about items, so whenever someone asked me about why I used my ring, I didn't want to get in trouble. Plus, I had a pretty hollow reasoning anyway that I was hoping to stay buried. Russ returning and talking about his previous life really fucked me.

I felt almost a little bad about that grudge, especially after you flipped. I had almost convinced myself to let it go, but in my BTSC with LoRab we talked about it, and she helped me convince myself that only a baddie would redirect to a civ. So I kept going at it hard.

Turnip Head wrote:This was a fun game to spectate! So... what happened was that MP accidentally spoiled me as to who some of the baddies were So I had to be replaced.

I was very happy to facilitate Russ subbing back into the game in the Henry role though. I was routing for him the whole game. I thought he did a great job of constantly shrugging off the suspicion against him while he built cases. You played a great game Russ and I was proud to see you make it so far!

As for my small ingame contributions, I knew from my role exactly what the engagement ring did, so I thought Scotty was bad news after Russ 1.0 was lynched in his place. That's why I kept asking Juliette to arrest me, I wanted to pass along my info while incarcerated. And then Scotty ended up being Juliette

I could not believe Epi flipped as Yin or whatever, I was so shocked :P

I figured you had gotten spoiled somehow! Bummer you didn't get to play it out! It was a fun game, despite being frustrating at times. But I'm really glad you had fun watching. It's kind fo fun to know you were watching and pulling for me the whole time. I did a poor job of rallying the troops on timmer, and the civs needed both a big dose of luck and major help from both Epi and Elo to win.

And BDH, YOU killed me??? And on a 25% chance, too. Haha I am so glad Epi had the Cops figured better than you did! I am glad you finally reconsidered your read on him, as I thought it was nearly impossible he wouldn't make it to endgame, although I was getting more and mroe convinced he was bad as bad lynch after bad lynch went through. I laid off him because I was scared you, BWT, and Elo would all turn on me hard though, with all the support he had.

The game was super fun! Thanks to the hosts and JJJ. I really thought it was over for us - still pretty shocked we came back. And Elo, thanks for handing us the victory! It came down to your vote in the end.

Go civs!

Epignosis wrote:In case it wasn't clear, if at any point I decide I can't win as mafia and there are two mafias, I play for the civilians.

So holy poop, we actually have a darn good chance!!! This is amazing!

BOOM!

BDH, as I made clear yesterday, I never once intended my final vote today to go to you.

Looking at how things have shaken out, Epi is my only reasonable choice here. I don't want to cause a tie by voting BWT, and I don't believe BDH is bad.

We also haven't seen anything from BWT yet today. That makes me nervous, and voting Epi put the vote out of reach for last-minute shenanigans by BWT (as long as there's no manipulation).

Epignosis wrote:

BigDamnHero wrote:linkin @Epi: say we lynch a cop...that leaves 2 civs (who can't be sure of each other), an indy (who is out for himself) a cop and a serial killer. The serial killer has already (presumeably) decided who dies after the lynch. That killer is the ONLY person who can basically guarantee a kill since there are still condtions attached to the cop NK and the civs don't have one. Then come Day 9, we are just right back where we started.

The only power (aside from a conditional NK) the cops have is to vote together. so IF we can lynch Yin today and not spilt vote tomorrow, this defuses that advantage considerably.

Two Civilians
Two Cops
One Yin
One Indy

Yin is getting somebody today. Could be a civilian, could be a cop, could be the independent. That's unknown. Suppose he didn't though. If Yin is lynched, that leaves...

Two Civilians
Two Cops
One Indy

...during a Night phase. The Crooked Cops have killed the last two Nights. If they kill a civilian, it's over, because the independent can win with any team. The cops will have won.

You absolutely need a Crooked Cop dead today. A civilian can only pray that Yin targeted a Crooked Cop too.

What Epi said here.

The person I'm actually most down to vote of all right now is Elo, she's my most confident Cop read.

Epignosis wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

Epignosis wrote:They name Elohcin, bwt, and me as bad.

Once again, I said I'm not sure between you and INH. Stop lying about things so easy to fact check.

I'm lying? Really now.

Your vote is on me. That's quite enough to say you've named me as bad.

And now it's on BDH. Doesn't mean I think he's bad. Like I said, emotional reaction. Get over yourself. INH was right about one thing: you're oozing smug baddie all the way.

Epignosis wrote:They name Elohcin, bwt, and me as bad.

Once again, I said I'm not sure between you and INH. Stop lying about things so easy to fact check.

Epignosis wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:Just had a thought that may be worth pointing out:

Crooked Cops, you guys are gonna want to try to get Mr. Yin lynched today. You get him, NK a civvie, and the game is over. If, on the other hand, you lynch a civvie today, you can't kill Yin tomorrow night, and barring manipulation or some crazy persuasion, the vote tomorrow is a tie. Then one of you might die at the end of the Day phase from Yin's kill, and he wins. Just seems like more of a sure thing for you if you get him today.

You left out that Yin is killing somebody today and can't be stopped.

Dammit, you're right. Well, about him killing today. Not 100% sure he can't be stopped.

Epignosis wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:Epi, care to answer BDH's question? 6 players alive, 3 are bad. We know you think I'm one of the baddies, so who are the other 2?

No.

Big Damn Hero is a big damn boy. If he wants to vote me, he can. Where he votes is his decision.

Sure, he can vote wherever he wants. Not sure how that's relevant. Going beyond today's lynch, you don't think having everyone's opinions out in the open might help us solve and thus win the game?

Just had a thought that may be worth pointing out:

Crooked Cops, you guys are gonna want to try to get Mr. Yin lynched today. You get him, NK a civvie, and the game is over. If, on the other hand, you lynch a civvie today, you can't kill Yin tomorrow night, and barring manipulation or some crazy persuasion, the vote tomorrow is a tie. Then one of you might die at the end of the Day phase from Yin's kill, and he wins. Just seems like more of a sure thing for you if you get him today.

BDH, as another point, Epi's led 4 civ lynches at this point. I led one, and then tried for days to lead a baddie lynch. Maybe you can still be proud of your performance as one of the last civs standing, but I don't see how. If I allow him to lead a FIFTH civ lynch and run away with the game, I'd feel like I played the worst game of all time, despite surviving for a while.

Linki: I said I'm not sure whether you or INH is the final baddie. You always say not to "twist words" - attributing something completely different from what I said is a bit beyond twisting, even, don't ya think?

Epi, care to answer BDH's question? 6 players alive, 3 are bad. We know you think I'm one of the baddies, so who are the other 2?

BigDamnHero wrote:So obviously Epi got whammied by an item or else he wouldn't install vote one person and then recommend several other vote another. I'm gonna take time to which one of you other bastards I can trust. ATM, I'm leaning Russ, but that could very easily change.

To my civ counterpart, don't give up hope. I had previously thought that our victory was already squashed, but we've got a Hail Mary shot at taking the baddie teams out.

Soooo, I'm the one you can trust most, but then Epi says "You should vote Russ." and you vote Russ? Are you that easily swayed? Color me perplexed, at best, and a little frustrated.

Keep in mind, this is the same Epi who's been wrong 4 times in a row, and who has been so convinced I'm bad he's come up with 3 different baddie teammates for me, 2 of whom are now dead civs.

I got some small validation with that timmer death, so I'm now 1/2 on calling baddies. I think you can do the math here.

BDH, to answer your question, Elo is definitely bad in my book right now. She voted me yesterday, reread us, and decided to vote DF. Then she voted me again today as soon as Epi said jump. Which, honestly, is the same you did, but circumstances being what they are, I don't really buy that you're bad regardless. I figure her for a probable Cop.

I think BWT is likely bad as well. Between Epi and INH I'm really torn on the final baddie; my vote for Epi yesterday was admittedly reactive and somewhat emotionally-driven, and INH has been agreeing with me a lot, which is making him harder for me to judge. So I am actually open to changing my vote, no matter what Epi says. (Preferably to Elo or BWT, but to INH if I feel there's a compelling-enough case against him.)

And speaking of pretending to be willing to change your vote, this strikes me as funny in hindsight:

Epignosis wrote:

Elohcin wrote:

Epignosis wrote:Voted Russ again.

B/c of DF's last post?

Of course not. I was always voting Russ.

What is Epi playing at?

Note that he doesn'tsay I'm bad, just that he recommends lynching me. He clearly seems to be bad, which, for now, is good enough for me. *votes Epi* Open to discussion on why voting him wouldn't be optimal and who would be good to lynch instead.

Don't really see myself voting BDH or INH today, though.

BigDamnHero wrote:

Elohcin wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:Geez, so it was 2 civs on that poll...brutal.

BDH, who do you most feel like spoiling? haha

I can't wait to read end game and see the ins and outs of all the items. It had to be an item in the hands of a baddie, or I guess possibly a misguided civ.

Now, b/c we are still playing, that must mean that civs still have a chance, right?

...only if one of the items is a bag of magic beans leading to a castle in the sky where a giant lives that can squash both baddie teams in one fell swoop.

@Russ: I'm just proud that I'll make it as one of the last civs standing.

Idk Elo....may just mean that Daisy isn't sure WHICH baddie team will win yet. Despereaux may also still be tryign to complete his win con.

BDH, I wish I could get some pride from that - we got toasted this game haha.

Geez, so it was 2 civs on that poll...brutal.

BDH, who do you most feel like spoiling? haha

insertnamehere wrote:For what it's worth, I think there's a damn good chance that DF's civ. I'm not as sure of his alignment as I am of Russ' but I still really resent this situation for making us choose between these two.

That's why Epi's absence really grinds my gears. It's like he knows DF's going to flip civ, so he's biding his time so he can sail in Night 7 on a horse of "I told you so" style moral superiority, and an "if DF is civ, Russ must be bad" case.

He doesn't need to waste time attacking Russ because it's better for his game if DF's lynched this round. That way he can just waltz into another easy civ lynch Day 8.

I appreciate the support. However, it seems extremely unlikely to me that the hosts would allow a 2-civ lynch when we're down like this already. But what do I know.

Quin wrote:This is the wrong thread. Please do not belittle me, it is the drugs. I swear it.

Not belittling, just notifying!

birdwithteeth11 wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:
See: Russ' case on timmer. He soft-defended MM, refused to vote him for reasons that were questionable at best, and pulled 2 gigantic 180s on the same day to (I suspect) save a baddie teammate.

I remember. The 180s were what got me at the time. So either he sly talked his way out of it, or he really is good and convinced me otherwise.

I guess I just don't feel as strongly about him as you do.

Yeah, that's fair. I think most of the thread feels the same way as you on this, actually.

Elohcin wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

Elohcin wrote:I know the lynch doesn't end until tomorrow evening. However, I am going to give a placeholder vote so y'all can see who I think is bad (among the two) as it stands right now from just following the game. But I will look at each of the candidates sometimes today. I may change my vote, I may not.

So, I don't mind your vote itself, but given that you haven't done a large amount of casebuilding this game, could you humor me and take a stab at offering some reason DF may be good and/or I may be bad?

This post tells me absolutely nothing about your train of thought, and it comes of as super wishy-washy.

Linki: Quin, think you posted in the wrong thread haha.

You are correct in everything you said. I thought it was clear that my vote was just a placeholder, giving everyone an idea of who I may think is bad among you and DF just by my following along with the game and playing as I have. I had not had a chance to read each of you individually (and still haven't, tbh), but I wanted to at last give people an idea of where I stood at that time. I've been SUPER busy the past few days. Actually, it is 2:42 and I just sat down for the first time today about 10 minutes ago with my "breakfast". I worked 8 hours straight in a hot, sticky kitchen and made use of like 40 sticks of butter I have a LOT of work this week. Anyway, I am in no way complaining, work=food on the table So, I am definitely going to go right now and finish catching up and then read you and DF individually. I will then post my thoughts and might even change my vote. I have no idea yet.

Thanks Elo! My bad on mistaking your placeholder, just wanted to make sure to try to get more justification for the vote.

Glad your business is going well! That sounds super hectic, but I bet you're making a lot of people really happy with your cakes!

I'm actually glad this 2-person lynch is happening. People are giving reads left and right, and I think it'll make it way easier to suss out the baddies going forward.

Elohcin wrote:I know the lynch doesn't end until tomorrow evening. However, I am going to give a placeholder vote so y'all can see who I think is bad (among the two) as it stands right now from just following the game. But I will look at each of the candidates sometimes today. I may change my vote, I may not.

So, I don't mind your vote itself, but given that you haven't done a large amount of casebuilding this game, could you humor me and take a stab at offering some reason DF may be good and/or I may be bad?

This post tells me absolutely nothing about your train of thought, and it comes of as super wishy-washy.

Linki: Quin, think you posted in the wrong thread haha.

Epi, I see you voted me. That's fine, you clearly think I'm bad. But you've thought I was bad since the Scotty lynch, for various reasons. Let's go through a few:

1) Epi leads a push onto LoRab. Russ defends her, and she soft defends him.
-Epi: "Russ fooled LoRab even though no one else did and got her to think he was a civ during a BTSC conversation."
-Russ: "But LoRab has been right about everyone else she's purported to have had BTSC with."
This one is still possible, I guess, but again, I'm really just not that good.

2) Replacements are evil.
-I've shown clearly that replacing in does not make anyone evil in and of itself.
This one is useless imo.

3) Russ is using phony math to stop Epi lynching Scotty, and evil replacement. They must be teammates!
-Scotty: *flips civ*
-Epi: "Well, Russ is still bad though. He's defended two civs in a row!"
(Note: I didn't actually defend Scotty per se. I just argued my point about replacements not being inherently evil, and at the same time pushed for a thread-based timmer lynch.
This one just doesn't make sense anymore, given the Scotty flip, but Epi somehow still thinks it plays into me being bad.

Epi, if none of that makes you see that maybe you're tunneling me, consider this: why on earth, if I were bad, would I be making such a shitstorm about your leadership? Any baddie in this game would be overjoyed to let you merrily go along lynching civs until the game was over. There are so many people following your cases with no additional contribution that all one would have to do is follow suit, and then blame one of them in another day or so. But I'm not doing that; I'm raising counterpoints to your proposed lynches (which you and others are ignoring) and suggesting an alternative (which you and others are ignoring). These things do not make sense to do as a baddie. It's risking too much exposure, when, again, I could easily coast by.

You say I'm taking these stances because I'm scared you're onto my teammate, finally. But who is that again? LoRab, Scotty 2.0? INH? It's been at least 3 days now, and you've gotten every lynch you've wanted. So I'm having trouble seeing who my nefarious teammate is that you're so worried about. If I'm defending them, I'm doing a pretty shitty job, because I haven't stopped a single lynch. And yet, no one has turned up bad. Huh. Weird, that.


Linki: I honestly don't know if Epi is bad, or just the most tunneled person I've ever seen in my life. That's the shitty thing about it. I'd rather take things step by step here and get DF, reconsider our options, get timmer, and re-reconsider. I still think there's ground to be gained by looking into some of the people quietly agreeing with him, too.

Epignosis wrote:

insertnamehere wrote:

Epignosis wrote:That isn't what I said or implied.

If you don't like the leadership, throw your own hat in the ring. Don't sit in the corner with your thumb up your butt and then get pissy when things don't go the way you want them to.

But you're bad too, so that's okay. My leadership is good because it's honest. Your leadership is bad because it is nonexistent.

Is there anyone who's posted in the thread that they disagree with your leadership that you DON'T think is bad?

This just isn't how life works, Epi. You can't do shitty things and blame other people for allowing you to do those shitty things.

Here's the next referendum from my "nonexistent leadership":

Today, we lynch DFaraday. Tomorrow, Epignosis.

Please discuss.

And Epi, try to actually admit that you fucked up instead of getting pissy because things aren't going your way.

If I'm bad, thing's are totally going my way.

But you just revealed they aren't.

You are bad.

He might be. But even if he is, he would have no way to know you're not, because there are 2 baddie factions. So he literally cannot mean he knows your civ from this unless he has some way of getting info we're not aware of.

This "case" doesn't make sense to me. But it does kinda prove INH's point that anyone who disagrees with you is "bad".

Oh, and I'm voting DF. Here's my case:

1) I'm a civ.
2) DF is not me.
Conclusion: DF has a higher chance of being bad than I do.

Also, I doubt the hosts would put 2 civs in a 2-person poll, when there are, what, 4 left in the game? So DF is probably bad.

Epignosis wrote:A leader is worthless without followers. I did my best. People followed. People should have original ideas if they don't like mine.

Epi is actually right on this. Thing is, I did have original ideas (lynch timmer). Epi and pretty much everyone else ignored them. Epi, I'm not saying it's your fault you're king of the thread. I said a few days ago that someone had to fill the power vacuum. I am saying that you've been wrong so consistently that it might be worth trying a new tack.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

BigDamnHero wrote:I'm in b the middle of a football game...BWT explaination satisfies my quarries. Changing my vote to timmer...I'll post a longer explaination later...if I'm still around. Apologies for any part I may have played in the current situations.

NOW YOU WANT TO????

AUGH!

RIP Scotty. Now you guys can clearly see there was nothing going on between me and him. So, can we PLEASE:

1) Stop listening to Epi
2) Lynch timmer
3) In all honesty, probably lynch Epi at this point. Let's be real, he's led like 3 bad lynches and shown no sign of letting up.

I could possibly be persuaded into a Timmer lynch. Not sure how likely currently but the possibility is there.

Honestly, I'm not sure about who the best candidate to lynch right now is. Scotty coming up civ threw me for enough of a loop that I need to get my bearings. Again.

Linki: Son of a...

RIP Sig.

Uhhhh....what??? You are an entire 24 hours late.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:Out of curiosity (as I was mildly interested in a potential Timmer lynch not all that long ago), why are you interested in lynching Timmer before Epig?

See: Russ' case on timmer. He soft-defended MM, refused to vote him for reasons that were questionable at best, and pulled 2 gigantic 180s on the same day to (I suspect) save a baddie teammate.

Epignosis wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:Nice NO U, Epi. I'd be shocked if people aren't tired of your tricks by now, so let's tango, amigo.

In all seriousness, if you could avoid mocking me over "not having the strength" the previous Day, that'd be cool. I had one of the worst weeks of my life last week. My sister, one of the closest people in the world to me, might literally die. Maybe I shouldn't have said anything about it and made my lack of mental energy for mafia fair game for you to blast me over. Lesson learned - I won't mention it again. Let's keep focused on in-thread acitvity from now on, please.

"Nice NO U?"

Epignosis wrote:I'm going to vote in the morning. My vote will go to either Scotty or Russtifinko. Probably the latter. His recent posts are not truth-seeking but rather narrative-selling.

That was Day 3, Russ2.

I hope your sister makes it out okay, buddy. Truly. I had no idea.

Yeah, I know. Sorry if I took it out on u at all. Just please be cognizant that there may be events going on irl for people that may not leave much mental energy for mafia, legitimately. Like I said, lesson learned for bringing it up.

Nice NO U, Epi. I'd be shocked if people aren't tired of your tricks by now, so let's tango, amigo.

In all seriousness, if you could avoid mocking me over "not having the strength" the previous Day, that'd be cool. I had one of the worst weeks of my life last week. My sister, one of the closest people in the world to me, might literally die. Maybe I shouldn't have said anything about it and made my lack of mental energy for mafia fair game for you to blast me over. Lesson learned - I won't mention it again. Let's keep focused on in-thread acitvity from now on, please.

Epignosis wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

BigDamnHero wrote: Both SCotty and Eloh were tied at the time and I didn't want either to go down so I felt moving my vote to timmer may cause others to do so as well and thus potentially saving a couple civs.

I mean, I get the idea, I guess. It just came a little late for anyone to do anything about it, which is disappointing.

Epignosis wrote:How many mafia have you caught, Russ?

Probably 2, tbqh, although no one seems to be listening to me on it. But any way you slice it, an 0/1 success rate is a hell of a lot better than 0/4.

Uh, no it isn't. It's still zero. It means you've been just as ineffective at lynching Mafia.

Gonna get pedantic, here.

Epi: Yes, 0/1 and 0/4 both come up to a 0% success rate. Good job, you can math.

However, in mafia there's a time component as well. See, every night, baddies get to kill someone to thin out the ranks. This essentially put us civs on a clock. Get enough correct lynches, you win, don't get enough, you lose.

The reason 0/1 is WAYYYY better than 0/4 is, every mislynch shortens that clock the civs are on. There are a max number of lynches we have to get this right, and every mislynch you lead gets us closer to running out.

So yes, 0/1 and 0/4 yield the same percentage, but also yes, 0/4 is WAAAAAYYYYYY worse than 0/1.

Now instead of trying to have the last word in a pissing contest, how about we lynch some baddies? I nominate timmer, followed by you. What do you say to my timmer case? You pretty much ignored it at the time, which is weird since I'd think a guy dominating the thread the way you have would be happy to get some help in analysis/casebuilding.

BigDamnHero wrote: Both SCotty and Eloh were tied at the time and I didn't want either to go down so I felt moving my vote to timmer may cause others to do so as well and thus potentially saving a couple civs.

I mean, I get the idea, I guess. It just came a little late for anyone to do anything about it, which is disappointing.

Epignosis wrote:How many mafia have you caught, Russ?

Probably 2, tbqh, although no one seems to be listening to me on it. But any way you slice it, an 0/1 success rate is a hell of a lot better than 0/4.

BigDamnHero wrote:I'm in b the middle of a football game...BWT explaination satisfies my quarries. Changing my vote to timmer...I'll post a longer explaination later...if I'm still around. Apologies for any part I may have played in the current situations.

NOW YOU WANT TO????

AUGH!

RIP Scotty. Now you guys can clearly see there was nothing going on between me and him. So, can we PLEASE:

1) Stop listening to Epi
2) Lynch timmer
3) In all honesty, probably lynch Epi at this point. Let's be real, he's led like 3 bad lynches and shown no sign of letting up.

Scotty wrote:Also @RUSS
you can't vote yourself, Chico. Might as well vote somewhere else instead of inviting a lynch. I know you seem to have given up, but the civs have not lost yet.

I guess....

Voting Elo for now. I don't see anything separating her and BWT if we disregard the info dump, and maybe the votes should reflect that? I also don't have any reason to vote Scotty.

Fwiw, I believe BWT's explanation. Not to say that makes him good per se, but if I'm reading this right,it's not alignment indicative and people should disregard the evidence BDH is putting forth.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:I will comment on what has happened. But I am PMing the hostess first to make sure I don't create any further rule violations by what I say.

She just said you wouldn't, though, right?

Also, I didnt say that first quote you quoted. :?

Epignosis wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:And I do agree with the last statement to an extent. Especially if we dealt with early inactive baddies. Because if we have players who are simply following his lead, then it gives the baddies an avenue to follow for sure.

That's not true and now you're making a mockery of yourself.

I tagged the wrong bit.

Russtifinko wrote:Also, if I got replaced, Epi would just insist that any role that got replaced twice is even MORE likely to be bad and that poor schmo would take 5 instant votes.

That's not true and now you're making a mockery of yourself.

Sorry, meant to use sarcastic orange and forgot. Please forgive me, Divine Leader!

birdwithteeth11 wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:I vote more people follow Epi and vote me. In fact, I'll be the first. One of the longest weeks of my life, and I don't have energy to try to save this game. So lynch me, and please, for the love of God, do 2 things when I die:

1) Lynch timmer. THat way we'll have done at least one thing right this game.
2) Dethrone Epi as King of the Thread. I mean, it was a pretty inactive game, and someone had to fill the void, so in that respect Epi is helping. But he's wrong, and the vast majority of the thread is treating his word like gold. It lets baddies skate by when 2/3 of voters say "Oh sure, whatever Epi said. That'll be good."

Well if you really are civ, then wouldn't you at least try to find a replacement?

Is there anyone else you think would be worthwhile for us to vote for today? I have my own top suspicions, but given how pisspoor most of the votes have gone so far, I'm trying to keep an open mind about this.

And I do agree with the last statement to an extent. Especially if we dealt with early inactive baddies. Because if we have players who are simply following his lead, then it gives the baddies an avenue to follow for sure.

I just happen to agree with him a lot this game is all. Which given our track record so far may or may not be a good thing.

Why I'm not being replaced: I'm still able to be active in the game. I just don't have the emotional energy to make the long, impassioned speeches that would change people's minds, and frankly, I think it's too late for the civs regardless. Best case, we can just play spoiler for one of the baddie factions.

Also, if I got replaced, Epi would just insist that any role that got replaced twice is even MORE likely to be bad and that poor schmo would take 5 instant votes.

I've already stated I think we should vote timmer. Are people seriously not getting that I suspect him? Because I feel like I've been abundantly clear. Is anyone even reading my posts? Mary had a little lamb, little lamb, little lamb....

Yeah, it's one thing to agree with Epi some of the time. It's another thing for 3-4 people to be taking every word he says as gold when he's already led one mislynch and is on his way to #2. I honestly don't know if he's bad or good, but the blind following is absolutely bad. He's human and subject to making errors like the rest of us, and he needs to be treated as such even though he writes very convincingly.

Linki: BWT, vote for me instead! I'm bad for the same reasons as Scotty (being a replacement and Scotty not suspecting me when he replaced in), and I've led a mislynch (Scotty 1.0), which Scotty hasn't done. Plus if I get lynched someone might be able to convince people to stop following Epi and to lynch timmer. Whereas if/when Scotty dies, either everyone will drink more of Epi's Kool-Aid (if Scotty is bad), or, if he's good, no one will quite know what to do next - enter Epi, Master Idea-Haver and Bestower of Cases.

Also, why only 6 votes on an extended day? We have 9 players left, right?

Come on, people! Pile 'em on.

Also, people (Elo was most notable to me, but others too) are STILL acting like replacements have a higher chnace of being bad than non-replacements. Spacedaisy has made it abundantly clear she's replacing inactive players solely because of inactivity. So once again, unless you can prove that baddies have a higher propensity to quit games (which, by the way, I 100% guarantee you can't), this argument is BULLSHIT.

It's one thing if you have thread evidence or a compelling case that a replacement is bad, but in term of burden of evidence, they should be looked at through EXACTLY THE SAME lens as a non-replacement player. Doing anything other than that will cause you to narrow your focus based on false assumptions, and it WILL increase your chance to lose (if you're a civ).

Starting to think Epi knows this and is laughing his way to the W.

I vote more people follow Epi and vote me. In fact, I'll be the first. One of the longest weeks of my life, and I don't have energy to try to save this game. So lynch me, and please, for the love of God, do 2 things when I die:

1) Lynch timmer. THat way we'll have done at least one thing right this game.
2) Dethrone Epi as King of the Thread. I mean, it was a pretty inactive game, and someone had to fill the void, so in that respect Epi is helping. But he's wrong, and the vast majority of the thread is treating his word like gold. It lets baddies skate by when 2/3 of voters say "Oh sure, whatever Epi said. That'll be good."

Damn! I thought I had this in my last post. It would've made my linki response to Epi easier to follow, I think. Anyway, assorted miscellaneous responses to posts that caught my eye:

Epignosis wrote:

Scotty wrote:I think focusing on replacements being alignment indicative is a mistake. So far, it's Russ, DF and me that have come back. We were all announced as civ at death. We replaced into roles from players that went MIa. That's all. I know I can't help what rabbit has done before me.

That's true...in the early phases. It is no longer the early phases. It is now numerically impossible for all three replaced persons to be civilian. Impossible. So there is good reason to scrutinize the replacements at this stage.

I've given very little attention to DFaraday. I will now remedy that.

So I think 2 different points are being made here. Epi is arguing a straw man when he, correctly, points out that replacements could be bad. Scotty, however, is also right by saying they're no more likely to be bad than any other player. Unless of course you think being a certain alignment has an effect on the rate of dropping out of games. I don't, but if anybody does think that, I'd be interested to hear why they think so.

DFaraday wrote:Epi, I do think that Rabbit/Scotty could certainly be Mafia, and that Rabbit's lack of participation could be why they missed the kill. Sokoth just stood out more because he had been posting on Day 2, when there was a kill, whereas Rabbit had seemed consistently absent throughout.

DF, you said here that rabbit's lack of participation could be why they missed the kill. Does the fact that MM's kill condition wasn't something within his control change your opinion on this??

Obviously to kill, a PM still has to go in, but that lowers the bar considerably over our previous speculation that the baddies themselves had to be actively meeting goals through their play.

BigDamnHero wrote:Epi, what is your take on BWT? I can't seem to get a read on him. It's like I send feelers out and get NO RESPONSE back...

That's because you do ....BWT has been super duper responsive/involved lately.

Elohcin wrote:First, my question to everyone would be, did any of you get temporary BTSC with another player claiming to be a civ? If others claim they had BTSC with someone claiming to be civ, then its more likely that is what happened with Lorab. If not, I don't think it would be the case. I mean, what kind of role allows you a one-time temporary BTSC conversation?

Elo, the hosts revealed LoRab's role secrets on Page 1. It seems a one-time temporary BTSC conversation with a player of her choice was exactly LoRab's power.

Epignosis wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:Also, keep in mind that LoRab was right to suspect MM and right to not suspect Wilgy. She's probably right about sig too, tbh. So what makes me so special that I'd somehow be bad AND the only read her gut was wrong on?

I'm especially surprised by this given that when I defended LoRab the other day, you seemed to back off.

Can you explain how you found out you had BTSC with Lorab as opposed to anybody else?

I'm neither confirming nor denying that I did have BTSC with LoRab in the first place. I don't really think I'd be allowed. I'm just saying that the logical progression of your thoughts up to that point made sense.

timmer wrote:Airtight? I do not think that word means what you think it means. You still haven't even looked at it without your blunders on.

Airtight means exactly what I think it means. Don't patronize me, Scummer.

Linki: Epi, sure, I'll buy that at least one replacement is bad, no problem. But how does that give us a better chance of getting a baddie today? If 1 of 3 is bad, that's a 33% hit rate. That would leave 3 baddies among 6 non-replacements, a 50% hit rate!

So unless you can convince me there's incontrovertible proof 2 replacements are bad, then I think you're oversimplifying and ignoring a lot of useful stuff by limiting yourself to looking only at replacements.

Also, keep in mind that LoRab was right to suspect MM and right to not suspect Wilgy. She's probably right about sig too, tbh. So what makes me so special that I'd somehow be bad AND the only read her gut was wrong on?

I'm especially surprised by this given that when I defended LoRab the other day, you seemed to back off.

Epignosis wrote:Who would kill Lorab when someone was talking about lynching her next?

Russtifinko wrote:I think lynching LoRab would be a huge mistake. Epi, I get what you're saying about that looking like a potential bus, but I really don't think that's what's going on here. Besides, MM wasn't lynched, so he couldn't really be bussed. (By the way, thanks for that one, by the way, YinYang). I think looking at other MM connections is a much better way to go, here.

LOL @ MM.

Somebody who had a chat with her.

LoRab wrote:OK. Read up.

Thoughts on the names that have come up, because at this moments, I don't have any suspects of my own and I've been wrong about suspicions up until now, so I'm self doubting, and I didn't have time to read back through earlier posts. Also, it's less than 2 hours, and more names would only make it easier for mafia to manipulate the lynch, assuming (like Epi) many missing voters).

MM I could definitely see as bad. Especially after the vote for Sig, with no stated reason for doing so.

Russ I would be very surprised to find out was bad.

Wilgy, I'm unsure. I'm not very good at reading him. My gut tells me he is civ, but my gut could be totally wrong.

Sig, I really don't think is bad. I'm willing to revisit that at some point, but I don't see enough evidence that he's bad at this point to change my thinking.

So, I'm voting MM, because I think that's where I'm seeing the strongest reasoning at this point.

I think there's enough evidence in sig's favor. I won't vote for him. Wilgy and MM are gone. Russ got the yellow comment. I want to explore that.

The above alongside Russ's ardent "defense" of Lorab is prima facie evidence that Russ and Lorab had BTSC at one point, and that despite the initial anonymity, Russ learned the identity of his company.

Think on that. Lorab had an anonymous chat with Russ, and she clearly trusted him (given the yellow).

Have you ever been bad and received BTSC with a civilian? That can be one of the most nerve-wracking experiences in Mafia...although I'd like to think I've gotten it down to a science.

Or you might just be like Eloh, who unwittingly outed her damn self in Death Note. Good times. *Wipes away a giddy tear*.

Russ' defense is unique.

sig never defended Lorab, and by Day 5 said she warranted a closer look. Dr.Wilgy never defended Lorab. MM was evil and may well have been caught in BTSC. That leaves Russ, who came out defending Lorab.

There are five civilians left.

Shawn Spencer
Carlton Lassiter
Henry Spencer
Abigail Lytar
Woody the Coroner

I don't believe Russ is Shawn or Carlton. I have other people in mind for those two roles. That leaves Henry, Abigail, and Woody. None of those are able to check secrets or roles. And if you are one of those roles, that narrows things down even further.

Russ got BTSC with Frank, figured out that was Lorab, and killed her.

Wait wait wait wait. This analysis was all going so well until the very last line. The whole theory was super well put together, except that I don't see how the conclusion follows. So:

1) LoRab and I had BTSC.
2) LoRab and I trusted and defended each other.
3) LoRab was civ.
4) I am.....bad??

You're giving me way too much credit and not giving LoRab enough if you think I could pull the wool over her eyes like that in BTSC. I'm flattered, but you're flat-out wrong.

I'll be voting timmer again. I'd love to hear some discussion on him, as I put together what I thought was a pretty well-thought-out and airtight (although admittedly poorly timed) case, but the only real response I got was from him, so I feel like I'm talking at a brick wall. His behavior D4 and D5 was just BANANAS, right? And on a pretty pivotal day for the baddies, too!

Has Epi been elected President and Ruler of Casemaking here, or do other people get to have ideas worth talking about too?

timmer wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

timmer wrote:Sorry Russ, but if the criteria for civ game is "doesn't change his mind" then you will be voting me forever, I'd say. I admit freely to changing my views on people in this game. .. because that's what you do when someone presents a good case?

Considering that mm voted for Sig, I'd think that my choosing not to vote for him yesterday would be seen in a good light, not a bad one.

And as for alphabetical order, you're right, it isn't something a baddie would deliberately do. It's also not something a civ would do. It looks like an absentminded mistake. But it's the kind of mistake more likely to be made by a baddie, imo.

It's one thing to chance your mind. It's another to do complete 180s on two different players just because Epi said so, and supplementing it with SUUUUUPER weak reasoning. You threw two of your top reads in the garbage instantaneously! This is meant as a compliment - I expect way better from civ timmer.

The bolded sentence makes absolutely 0 sense whatsoever. Your vote for Wilgy is one of the most damning things you've done! You said all along you suspected sig, but you refused to vote for him because that would cause a tie and make it possible for MM to be lynched. You stated this explicitly in your post. MM turned out to be bad. Instead, you voted Wilgy, whom you had only brought up once 2 days before that - and the time you brought Wilgy up, you were defending Dom/MM from him. Dom/MM, once again, was bad. I literally cannot make myself clearer on this point.

In what topsy-turvy universe is your Wilgy vote and justification for it yesterday anything but horrible?

Again, four people voted for Wilgy, what do you think of the others?

I think their votes are better justified than yours. How is "other people did it too" a defense?

I'll be honest - I probably was going to continue to suspect you regardless of how you responded to my case, because the case itself struck me so hard. But your reponses are doing even less to change my opinion than I imagined they would.

Damn. By my count we have 11 players left, 4 of which are bad. Not unwinnable, but our room for error will run out quick.

insertnamehere wrote:I believe the baddies are hiding in the Yes Men. The players who just go with the flow and jump on the bandwagons. Timmer's definitely caught my eye for his complete and utter 180 heel turn from this:

timmer wrote:I feel like both Wilgy and Sig could be bad, while I'm less sold on the MM case. I trust INH in this game, and haven't trusted Sig all game...

to this

timmer wrote:I believe INH is bad, as well. He was reading very sensible to me, but his voting with MM against Sig, and Sokoth's putting him last on her list... nope.

But my vote's going to go to the player I most feel exemplifies the "Yes Man" archetype, BWT. After saying nothing about me for the entire game, he posts a "Yeah, this" to Epi's Sokoth/INH dual indictments, and now wants to lynch me tomorrow. He voted Scotty twice before boarding the Wilgy train, and browsing through his post history, I can barely find any points of value that don't connect to one of those two. This vote is equally a statement of suspicion, and a suggestion for him to step up his game.

So...you agree with me?

I agree that BWT is kind of following the Flavor of the Day case the past few days. I am notorious for misreading him, so I'll let others decide on how it looks. In my experience he's done that before as civ and a bad, fwiw.

Epignosis wrote:Precious little time left, and now people want to bring new ideas around. There's been 48 hours. What the hell?

timmer wrote:Sorry Russ, but if the criteria for civ game is "doesn't change his mind" then you will be voting me forever, I'd say. I admit freely to changing my views on people in this game. .. because that's what you do when someone presents a good case?

Considering that mm voted for Sig, I'd think that my choosing not to vote for him yesterday would be seen in a good light, not a bad one.

And as for alphabetical order, you're right, it isn't something a baddie would deliberately do. It's also not something a civ would do. It looks like an absentminded mistake. But it's the kind of mistake more likely to be made by a baddie, imo.

It's one thing to chance your mind. It's another to do complete 180s on two different players just because Epi said so, and supplementing it with SUUUUUPER weak reasoning. You threw two of your top reads in the garbage instantaneously! This is meant as a compliment - I expect way better from civ timmer.

The bolded sentence makes absolutely 0 sense whatsoever. Your vote for Wilgy is one of the most damning things you've done! You said all along you suspected sig, but you refused to vote for him because that would cause a tie and make it possible for MM to be lynched. You stated this explicitly in your post. MM turned out to be bad. Instead, you voted Wilgy, whom you had only brought up once 2 days before that - and the time you brought Wilgy up, you were defending Dom/MM from him. Dom/MM, once again, was bad. I literally cannot make myself clearer on this point.

In what topsy-turvy universe is your Wilgy vote and justification for it yesterday anything but horrible?

That said, I know I can tunnel a bit (see: Scotty), so feedback would be appreciated.