The Syndicate

I had fun too, I don't want any confusion about that. But it was disheartening to learn how little chance I had of actually winning this game (I did fulfill my individual win condition with ease, though!)

The first five kills could all have hit mafia and we still would have been outnumbered.

Epignosis wrote:

Spacedaisy wrote:I knew you were bad Epi. You know why? You didn't once suspect me. Come on man, you can call me as bad better than anyone else, so I knew you were off.

Almost everybody was bad, apparently.

I don't see how this was a balanced game at all. Or Mafia.

This all boiled down to luck: Who got night killed.

And it all came down to a coin flip.

Might as well have played craps.

I don't see how three civilians were supposed to have a chance against 9 mafia.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

thellama73 wrote:Well I never.

Boosh and/or Kakow.

Touché.

Epignosis wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Sorry folks! I got a little busy with other things. The night post will be coming shortly.

No. Unacceptable.

At least I didn't fall asleep at my keyboard.

I am learning how to drink bourbon like an adult man, so there is an increasing chance that this happens to me soon.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Sorry folks! I got a little busy with other things. The night post will be coming shortly.

No. Unacceptable.

At least I didn't fall asleep at my keyboard.

Yet.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Sorry folks! I got a little busy with other things. The night post will be coming shortly.

No. Unacceptable.

The other possibility is a lynch switch onto someone with survival power, but I agree that Nero seems to be lying.

Sorsha wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

Sorsha wrote:

I'm putting my vote on bullz for the moment, I still think bullz/epi/daisy are more likely to be mafia than Nero.

I think

I don't understand this reasoning. You also voted to kill obvious-civ C-Man. Explain yourself or I'm coming for you next.

I feel like Nero is a lone wolf this game. I don't really know his play style that well yet but his posts don't sound to me like someone with bts.

Out of the dead Mafia which ones do you think we're on which team, if we are assuming more than one team? And how does Nero fit with that?

As Epi pointed out, the subtle defending by Sig makes it look very likely that he was on a team with Nero.

By lone wolf do you mean a serial killer? If so, than we should kill him before he kills us. right?

Why do you think Bullzeye is bad when the voting record does not bear that out?

Sorsha wrote:

I'm putting my vote on bullz for the moment, I still think bullz/epi/daisy are more likely to be mafia than Nero.

I think

I don't understand this reasoning. You also voted to kill obvious-civ C-Man. Explain yourself or I'm coming for you next.

Quin wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

Quin wrote:I hadn't analysed the votes, so I didn't know that happened. Even with that information, I don't think I am significantly less suspicious of him than I was before. If we consider the possibility that there are multiple mafia teams, it could be that Bullz is mafia, but not on the same team as whoever you're talking about (I'll fill in the gaps after I submit this)

Specific players aside, do you agree or disagree with the idea of multiple mafia teams? Could you think of any other explanations for the sheer amount of consistent mafia kills?

I'm actually quite confused by it all, because we have had three mafia dead and the game hasn't ended. A team of four seems overpowered in a twelce player game. Two teams of two is more likely, but still wouldn't account for the third kill, uless there is a serial killer or civ ninja.

If I had to guess, , I would say two teams of two and a civ ninja, which means we would only have to kill one more to win. Note that we haven't seen any power roles yet, so civ ninja is likely to be one of those.

Is a ninja essentially just a serial killer but for town? I've not seen one used before. Either way, I agree that at least one of the power roles is a killing ability, whether it be town or rogue.

Correct. The only difference between a ninja and a serial killer is win condition. A civ ninja wins with the town, whereas the serial killer usually has a last man standing or survival condition.

Quin wrote:I hadn't analysed the votes, so I didn't know that happened. Even with that information, I don't think I am significantly less suspicious of him than I was before. If we consider the possibility that there are multiple mafia teams, it could be that Bullz is mafia, but not on the same team as whoever you're talking about (I'll fill in the gaps after I submit this)

Specific players aside, do you agree or disagree with the idea of multiple mafia teams? Could you think of any other explanations for the sheer amount of consistent mafia kills?

I'm actually quite confused by it all, because we have had three mafia dead and the game hasn't ended. A team of four seems overpowered in a twelce player game. Two teams of two is more likely, but still wouldn't account for the third kill, uless there is a serial killer or civ ninja.

If I had to guess, , I would say two teams of two and a civ ninja, which means we would only have to kill one more to win. Note that we haven't seen any power roles yet, so civ ninja is likely to be one of those.

Dang, Epi is right. Nero is a better choice than Daisy.

Also, Quin, what do you make of the fatc that a confirmed mafia member voted to tie Bullzeye for the lead? Doesn't that make you wary of voting for him?

Epi, thoughts on the above?

I'm going with Daisy for now. Her "C-Man and Llama can't both be civ" argument seems like a way of justifying going after one of us after the other is lynched, even though she didn't follow through on it. Also, her vote for C-Man, who was obviously civ, is not a good sign.

Sig voted for Bulleye to tie him for the lead on Day 1, leading me to believe thta Bullzeye and Sig cannot be on the same baddie team.
Wilgy voted for Epi on Day 2, expanding his lead in votes, leading me to believe thta Wilgy could not be on a team with Epi.
Sig voted for Daisy on Day 2, when she was in no danger of being lynched. Could easily be a distancing vote.

That means I have to choose between Nero and Daisy today. Does anyone else have thoughts on which of the two is more likely to be bad?

I kind of feel like I should vote for Bullzeye just to see if all three of my baddie picks were right.

Oh man, I was right about WIlgy too! I am on fire this game.

DrWilgy wrote:Quiet night...

Llama, what are your thoughts on Nero oustide of your theory.

Sorsha, Daisy what do you think of Llama's comment about you two from earlier?

I don't trust Nero. I was pretty happy when the lynch was tied between Epi and Nero yesterday. I thought we had a good chance of finding a baddie, which is why I was so dismayed to come back and see the votes all moved to C-Man.

No problem. Thanks for the clarification.

Nerolunar wrote:My Sorsha read didn´t provide anything. The shifts in votes are weird, but I don´t think its evidence as of yet.

I'm extremely disappointed in Sorsha and Daisy for casting such foolish votes. Nero had at least a possibility of being bad. One of you at least had better be mafia, or else there is no excuse for what you have done.

My rainbow list continues to be 100% accurate.

This quote is from Llama. I find it weird that you begin to accuse Daisy and Sorsha when you voted for G-man too. Were you not fully convinced that G-man was bad when you voted for him?

I'm putting my vote on G-Man. I doubt both he and llama are civ and I feel more confident that llama is civ than g-man. I will be around off and on, I'm at work. We will see if I leave my vote there.

This post is from Daisy. Do you still not suspect Llama?

I didn't vote for C-Man. I voted for Wilgy on Day 1 and Epi on Day 2. What are you talking about?

Epi is still my top suspect. I think he is counting on us loosing focus and second guess ourselves if he just continues to play it cool and use the sigh smiley in every post. I don't intend to let that happen.

Bullzeye wrote:Also I thought G-Man was one of the most obvious civs going, no idea where that lynch came from.

Same here. I feel like every time I step away from thread, it veers off in some weird direction for no reason. You people can't be trusted!

I'm extremely disappointed in Sorsha and Daisy for casting such foolish votes. Nero had at least a possibility of being bad. One of you at least had better be mafia, or else there is no excuse for what you have done.

My rainbow list continues to be 100% accurate.

I'm out at a bar, so I need to decide now. I think I'm going to keep my vote on Epi. He is keeping a cool head under fire, which I know is a core tenet of his baddie strategy.

Nerolunar wrote: Linki I was online when Metalmarsh posted that I had subbed in and immediately began reading and posting a little. You´re reaching, Llama.

I'm not reaching. I'm explaining my theory, which is mine, and that I have.

Wow, busy day. Sorry I haven't been around guys.

I am sympathetic to the votes on Nero, because I have a theory.

My theory is this, and this is what my theory is. Ahem. The theory that I have (which is mine) is that hosts are more anxious about replacements when the absent player is mafia than when they are civ. Especially in a game like this, an absent baddie would be deadly to the mafia cause. They would need a replacement immediately. Much less urgent with the civs, because there are more of us. Nero replaced in fantastically quickly. Just sayin'.

I am a bit surprised by the lack of attention SVS paid to this game. Usualy she is more invested as a baddie. I'm seeing a similar indifference from Epi and I think that's part of what's making me suspect.,

I'm putting my vote on Epignosis for now. His game smells awfully fishy to me.

G-Man wrote:

thellama73 wrote:RIP Sloonei.

But look whose rainbow list is 100% accurate so far.

My GTH reads are similarly 100% accurate so far, which is encouraging.

High five.

RIP Sloonei.

But look whose rainbow list is 100% accurate so far.

Quin wrote:I have mixed feelings on llama right now. I'm inclined to believe he is town, owing to the way he presented his 'rainbow list', and I don't doubt the validity of his role claim, but I don't understand why he would claim it in the first place. I can't think of a single way it benefits him.

I quoted it before but I lost it, but I honestly think SVS missing the vote was an honest mistake, since I thought the day phase was 48 hours as well. But I still acknowledge whoever it was that said he hasn't been saying much with any relevance.

It benefits me by providing more data for the thread to analyze. Mafia benefit from secrecy. Civilians benefit from information. If people accept my claim as true, it means that either C-Man is lying, or there are two roles with the same power. If there are, we can decide how likely it is that they are the same alignment. I think this is fodder for productive discussion.

Agreed about SVS.

Of course I could be lying about my role power, but I'm having a hard time imagining a scenario in which such a lie would benefit me. I don't think my power and civ alignment automatically mean C-Man is of the opposite alignment though. And he still reads civ to me, so I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

DrWilgy wrote:I thunked he held it until the end, but could be wrong.

You are not wrong.

For me, the random vote is not really suspicious. It's Epi's last minute vote to break the tie that has me worried.

DrWilgy wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

Sloonei wrote:Bullzeye is claiming that randomized votes are not uncommon, but where I come from they sre so rare that to do it once would pretty much be a death sentence. Can anyone back him up on that?

Random voting on Day 1 is not uncommon here, but there are seveal of us who heavily frown upon it. I, personally, think it is idiocy and have never done it.

Llama! Do you prefer self voting or RVS in a non-informed situation?

Llama in regards to you being on both of my lists, you are the most easily swappable one on the situation where G-Man is bad. I could also see G-Man, Sig, Quin or Nero, following you as "most likely temmie."

So... Will you play my game?

I hate both, but I guess random is better than self, since there is at least a chance you could catch a bad guy. A self vote never will, unless a baddie is stupid enough to vote himself lynched.

And no, I will not play your game. Now it's just pure stubbornness.

Sloonei wrote:Bullzeye is claiming that randomized votes are not uncommon, but where I come from they sre so rare that to do it once would pretty much be a death sentence. Can anyone back him up on that?

Random voting on Day 1 is not uncommon here, but there are seveal of us who heavily frown upon it. I, personally, think it is idiocy and have never done it.

Bullzeye wrote:

thellama73 wrote:Bullz, are you teammates with Epi?

If he's a civ then yes. If not then no. Are you?

Nope, although it's kind of a shame. I like being on a team with him.

Bullz, are you teammates with Epi?

This is what I'm talking about with the wild speculation, people. Side-eye Chloe over here wants to lead us down this blind alley of guessing about the different role powers, when we have concrete data from the lynch votes and from the fact that C-Man survived the lynch to go on. Do not be deceived nor distracted. Yeesh.

Also, I don't know what you're talking about "the potential third power role". What makes you think there are only three power roles? Who said there were Indies? I think you assume a lot.

Quin wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

sig wrote:Interesting, though is that more likely a civ role or mafia role?

The weird thing is that I apparently have the same power as C-Man, and I am civ. So I have to wonder whether a) he is lying b) there is more than one civ with the same power or c) he is a baddie counterpart to my civvieness.

If you have the same role as him, what do you think about the potential third power role? Do you think it is the same as both of yours? Do you think there would be one for mafia, one for town and one for rogue/independent? When will Wilgy give me back my fish hat?

Impossible to know at this point.

Here's the thing. If Epi's vote was a save, it was an incredibly transparent one. But in a game like this, where the Day 1 loss of a teammate would be devastating, it might be worth it in the hopes of playing the WIFOM. I think I would be up for a Bullz or Epi lynch tomorrow to test this theory.

sig wrote:Interesting, though is that more likely a civ role or mafia role?

The weird thing is that I apparently have the same power as C-Man, and I am civ. So I have to wonder whether a) he is lying b) there is more than one civ with the same power or c) he is a baddie counterpart to my civvieness.

DrWilgy wrote:Upupupupu!!
GTH reads everyone! Now before I beat you with a tomato covered Sorsha!

Under the condition that G-Man is bad
Bad: G-Man, Sig, Llama

Under the condition that G-Man is civ
Bad: Epi, Bullzeye, and Llama

Linki- Daisy I'm not answering until everyone has played... Or I get bored. Whichever comes first.

Hey Epi/Llama have you tried my great game?

How am I bad under both scenarios? Unfair. Because of that, I refuse to play your game.

Epi, you said you wouldn't vote for a no lynch! You lied!

Oh wow, Epi. Interesting.

I'm tempted to switch to Bullz, but I think I'll let fate decide. He is sick.

Sorsha wrote: Where is svs? I don't want to vote for her, just wondering where she ran away to.

She is mad at me for attacking hippies. She'll not be back.

Sorsha wrote:

thellama73 wrote:Four way tie is extremely bad for freedom, but I'm not inclined to vote for either Daisy, Sorsha, or C-Man. YOu guys should consider joining me.

Out of self preservation I would but I'd not want to lynch wilgy.

Do you have an alternate suspicion?

I'll refer you to my rainbow list.

Four way tie is extremely bad for freedom, but I'm not inclined to vote for either Daisy, Sorsha, or C-Man. YOu guys should consider joining me.