The Syndicate

Thanks fr the game, MP and Daisy! My sock account is cleaned out and the password reset.

Guys, can we please lynch Quin tomorrow?

Well, it seems like I was right, although I guess nothing is definitive. Glad TH is still alive.

Dom wrote: How does one day 2 post erase the rest of the case?

We'll soon see who is right and who is wrong, I guess.

Maybe I am wrong, and I know you guys all have strong opinions. But I am not seeing it. Of course, I have been wrong before. My vote stays where it is.

Ignore my last post, Sloonei. I responded too hastily before reading all of your responses.

Sloonei wrote: I don't agree with it. It's possible to rationalize any behavior away as "building townie cred," but if you take thta attitude all the time, it's impossible to draw any conclusions from in-thread behavior, or voting pattersn for that matter. I continue to believe that there are actions that make no sense as a cop, and thta very few if any baddies would do.

I don't think the tentative suggestion of a Chinese Fire Drill on Day 2 is a strong enough piece of evidence to overwhelm the much larger case against TH at this point. I have no trouble reading that post of his from a baddie perspective, and if it's supposed to be his strongest civ point in the game then I want to lynch him even more.[/quote]

And you agree that the vote for Fuzz, including its timing, makes sense for a cop seeking civvie cred?

Sloonei wrote:
thellama73 wrote:This one:

Epignosis wrote:I started going through Turnip Head's posts, and stopped here:

Turnip Head wrote:I want to lead a CFD counterwagon because I don't like any of these 3, but I have no idea where to go. My vote is accomplishing nothing but I don't know where else to put it. I really hope Epi doesn't get lynched, I haven't played with him in forever and I'm liking his new approach this game.
Question: If Turnip Head is a cop, how does this Day 2 post make sense?
What do you think of my answer to this question a few posts later?

I don't agree with it. It's possible to rationalize any behavior away as "building townie cred," but if you take thta attitude all the time, it's impossible to draw any conclusions from in-thread behavior, or voting pattersn for that matter. I continue to believe that there are actions that make no sense as a cop, and thta very few if any baddies would do.

Dom wrote:
thellama73 wrote:All right, I can get behind a Boomslang lynch, because if Turnip Head is playing a baddie game, it's one of the most brilliant I've ever seen.
Can you clarify why you don't want to lynch TH?

TH cast a tying vote for RadicalFuzz, who was a cop. I can't see a good reason for him to do that if they were teammates. Prisoner says it was for civ cred and that Fuzz told him to do it in the thread, but if he really wanted civ cred, Fuzz should have told him to do it behind the scenes. THe fact that he didn't undermines the civ cred argument for me. Also see the post I just referenced by Epignosis.

This one:

Epignosis wrote:I started going through Turnip Head's posts, and stopped here:

Turnip Head wrote:I want to lead a CFD counterwagon because I don't like any of these 3, but I have no idea where to go. My vote is accomplishing nothing but I don't know where else to put it. I really hope Epi doesn't get lynched, I haven't played with him in forever and I'm liking his new approach this game.
Question: If Turnip Head is a cop, how does this Day 2 post make sense?

Prisoner 509378 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:if Turnip Head is playing a baddie game, it's one of the most brilliant I've ever seen.
Just because of the Fuzz vote? Or what else?

I agree with the post Epignosis made earlier outlining certain behavior of TH's that makes no sense as a baddie. Hang on, I will pull it.

Boomslang

All right, I can get behind a Boomslang lynch, because if Turnip Head is playing a baddie game, it's one of the most brilliant I've ever seen.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:I am willing to join a coalition if you guys stop coalescing around obvious civs.
I think you're wrong.

There are numerous candidates though. Who besides Quin excites you?

I could vote for Nerolunar, sig, or maybe Boomslang I guess. But I still think Quin is the right way to go, and not long ago, a lot of people agreed with me.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Questions I have for the group:
1. If TH is bad, why did he place a seventh vote on Radical Fuzz, when Ika had seven as well?
RadicalFuzz literally told him to do it.

Not buying it. TH is good. Why wouldn't Fuzz have told him that in BTSC to give him unbreakable civ cred, rather than in the thread?

Prisoner 509378 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:2. What happened to all the other people who were ready to vote for Quin but suddenly aren't, e.g. Black Rock and SVS?
I suspect those two still are willing. We've formed a coalition of consensus town reads and intend to vote as a group instead of pouting around on our own pet suspects as we had been prior. It's strategically foolish to do anything else with the ratios likely to be strongly in the cops' favor.

I am willing to join a coalition if you guys stop coalescing around obvious civs.

I'm starting to get really nasty feelings about Nerolunar, and I'm not quite sure why. I must investigate.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Quin wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Well, call me crazy, but I still think It's Quin.

Prisoner, note that Epignosis, whom you suspect, and Quin, whom I suspect, are both voting for chaindeath. Classic scapegoatery.
You would have said this regardless of who I voted.
It's impossible to predict the future or alternate realities with any accuracy.
If Quin isn't likely to be the lynch today by the time we get to EOD, are you going to be willing to budge?

Maybe, but not to Turnip Head or Chaindeath.

Questions I have for the group:
1. If TH is bad, why did he place a seventh vote on Radical Fuzz, when Ika had seven as well?
2. What happened to all the other people who were ready to vote for Quin but suddenly aren't, e.g. Black Rock and SVS?

Quin wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Well, call me crazy, but I still think It's Quin.

Prisoner, note that Epignosis, whom you suspect, and Quin, whom I suspect, are both voting for chaindeath. Classic scapegoatery.
You would have said this regardless of who I voted.

It's impossible to predict the future or alternate realities with any accuracy.

Scotty wrote: This was Day 1, where we had no info. Scapegoating? Hardly.
Also, are you saying I am suspicious for my vote then, llama?

I continue to read you as civ, so no. But I think your vote was a good springboard for others to jump onto.

Epignosis wrote: What's your assessment of chaindeath's vote for ika?

Without meaning to sound disrespectful, I think Chaindeath is in over his head. Many of his posts are about trying to catch up, and I don't really think he has a well thought out strategy. I don't make much of his vote for Ika at all.

Prisoner 509378 wrote: Please illustrate the early game near-lynch scenario you referenced that makes you feel chaindeath is a scapegoat.

This string of posts/votes looked suspicious to me, and were largely based on the fact that he hadn't checked in yet, which is not na terribly good predictor of baddieness. They all came within two hours of each other.

Spoiler: show

Well, call me crazy, but I still think It's Quin.

Prisoner, note that Epignosis, whom you suspect, and Quin, whom I suspect, are both voting for chaindeath. Classic scapegoatery.

I'm pretty much in agreement with SVS's list apart from Chaindeath. Let's get lynching!

Sloonei wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:Let's lynch chaindeath tomorrow. I think everyone agrees with that one, yes?
Boomslang!

Quin!

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Let's lynch chaindeath tomorrow. I think everyone agrees with that one, yes?

I don't. I thought the almost-lynch of Chaindeath early in the game was a clear case of scapegoating.

I have to say, I am a little suspicious of people who keep narrowly escaping lynches. I feel like I see a lot of games where someone who is almost lynched three or four times, but slips out of it, ends up being bad. SIg falls in the category, and so does Quin. I don't know, something to think about for tomorrow's lynch.

Silverwolf wrote: And Epi deserves the fuck off. He's being a complete ass to me. If he's town, then that's pretty disgusting. If he's scum, well played and no problem.

I like Epi.

This is why we should have lynched Quin. RIP Ika.

Okay, those are all fair points. I am not convinced that "not posting a lot" is good evidence of baddieness, but at least I understand where you guys are coming from, and I was never too comfortable with lynching Ika anyway. Still, my vote stays on Quin.

Turnip Head wrote:Okay, well now I get the feeling that Llama might have civ BTSC with Boom.

I am NOT implying that. I am just suspicion of sudden out-of-the-blue wagons.

Sloonei wrote:
thellama73 wrote:What's going on with this Boomslang wagon? I thought we agreed on Quin?
We also agreed on Boomslang.

I didn't.

Why? What has he done wrong?

What's going on with this Boomslang wagon? I thought we agreed on Quin?

Prisoner 509378 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Tonight's just been an emotional whirlwind for Silverwolf, huh?
Make your next post a good one. Numbers.

I don't understand the question. "Numbers." is not a sentence.

Tonight's just been an emotional whirlwind for Silverwolf, huh?

S~V~S wrote:
Silverwolf wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Silverwolf wrote:ika-How can you say you are gonna flip town but also say my scumread on you is correct?
Hey SW, could you do me a favor and proclaim a certain scum read on ika? I know I know, please just humor me.
Yes, I think ika is scum.
So why aren't you voting for him?

That is a super good question. If there was ever an opportunity to lynch him, it's today, and Silver is obstructing rather than helping that opportunity (For the record, I am not sold on Ika being scum, so I'm staying out of it.)

My scum rad on Serge was based on DDL being bad. Since he wasn't, I have to reevaluate.

Here's the relevant series of quotes, Prisoner. Make up your own mind.

thellama73 wrote:Quin, are you bad? I can't tell.

thellama73 wrote:
Quin wrote: Are there really any good guys in this setup?
So that's a yes. Thanks.

Everybody lynch Quin.

thellama73 wrote:In all seriousness, I see this all the time, and I regard it as a legitimate baddie catching technique. I ask someone if they are bad, and instead of saying "no" they make a joke out of it.

Why? I think there are still an awful lot of people who are subconsciously uncomfortable lying in the face of a very direct question, so they dodge instead. They don't mean to, but it is their instinct. I trust my methods, and it's why I'm voting Quin today.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Whew, busy weekend. Okay, what are we doing? Lynching Quin?
lol hi llama. You got beef with Q?

Yes. I asked Quin if he was bad, and he didn't say no.

Whew, busy weekend. Okay, what are we doing? Lynching Quin?

Oh for god's sake... Dragon, why did you have to act so much like a baddie?

Prisoner 509378 wrote: This is surprising. I thought llama was opposed to people broadcasting town reads. I think this post is strategically fine and dandy, but I wouldn't have anticipated it coming from this guy. Perhaps a buddying scenario can be drawn out.

I really only have a problem with it when there are multiple mafia teams, since it gives them a way not to hit each other by mistake. In a game like this, the police know who the civs are, so announcing it doesn't change anything.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Hi Serge. I'm going to stare at your posts now.

Spoiler: show
Serge wrote:I like thellama73's in-depth post about why he thinks Luffy is a cop. I don't necessarily agree with it but that amount of perception doesn't reek of scum to me. If he held on to just the "this game is hard to win for cops" thing, I may have voted for him.

I think ika is acting like a very naughty deer caught between the headlights. I honestly don't remember the case against gleam anymore, and the one against Epignosis half-built on his meta, which I don't take stock on.

Um, someone tell me how to vote.

ika

Does that work?
His presence prior to the Fuzz lynch was limited primarily to Day 2, but he missed the actual CFD sequence. He primarily seemed to be trying to catch up with the game however he could. The above post was his most substantive contribution.

The highlighted bit confuses me. Earlier, Serge had pooh-poohed llama's commentary on DDL's "this game is hard to win for cops" thing. In this post he endorses llama for his DDL case but doesn't agree with it -- suggesting it would have been stronger if it was just limited to that earliest commentary. This doesn't make sense. I could see this as a discombobulated effort to avoid voting for DDL so he could jump aboard the easier ika wagon, which would be a telling thing if DDL is indeed a baddie. We'll see on that front.

Spoiler: show
Serge wrote:I'm not familiar with CFD and seeing it in action made me think that the traitor plan would have had a chance to work if you're all this efficient and easy to rally.

I do not think that the scum team would all rally to save a teammate in a day as early as this, with the number of players available.

As for scum being on Fuzz's bandwagon, I think that's more likely. SVS's post against Fuzz was brief but enough to produce the CFD, and if only a few of the cops were online at that time then what better way to earn points as a civ? Also, the poll doesn't even show Fuzz as the one that has the most votes. Stroke of luck?

That being said, I still don't have a firm grasp of the details of the events leading to the lynch.

PS: DrWilgy why are you voting at night?

Serge wrote:Well let me start with you. The poll would have me believe you voted first for Fuzz, and there seems to be a case since Fuzz didn't even have the most votes by the end of the day. Maybe you were even confident that the CFD won't work. Where I'm from, these things don't happen. We pick one of the leading lynches, proceed to lynch, and pick up the pieces from that. However, I am more inclined to believe you're civ since I don't have any erstwhile bad gut feel from you before or after that lynch.

SVS is a civ. He went for that Fuzz bit and ran with it, and unless Fuzz wanted to be bussed I wouldn't dream of doing it as scum. With the drought of replacements and the size of the game maye Fuzz wanted to be replaced and since that didn't look possible, maybe he wanted to go as an asset to his team. There is a possibility, but it is very remote.

The people who jumped at ika on the last moment probably really want ika to get lynched.

The people who jumped on Fuzz at the last moment didn't want ika or gleam to get lynched, but that begs the questionquestion why not vote for Epignosis whom I recall has a few votes(two, I think) as a headstart. That being said, I don't recall how many votes Fuzz had before.
Serge seems to be all over the place in these two posts. The highlighted portions don't align logically as far as I can see. In the second post he exonerates SVS based on the same premise essentially that he used to cast suspicion on other people in the first post. Perhaps he's giving SVS a great deal more credit for having "started" the CFD, but it's quite a jump still to suggest that the ones who followed it should be seen as the biggest suspects to emerge from the scenario. It doesn't add up.

Spoiler: show
Serge wrote:I'm here to fulfill my promise to SVS regarding the CFD of day 2.

Luffy and sig looked pretty bad after the flip but I think the latter is more reminiscent of of a skeptical townie imploring for everyone to stop and think about what they're doing. Even though Fuzz flipped scum, I felt like his intent wasn't misguided. Luffy on the other hand posted that bit where he basically said it was prime time for scum to save their friends, when in reality something like the CFD doesn't usually happen, and if they do, they're probably not initiated by scum.

Which brings us to Golden. Even though Turnip Head Was the first person to voice the CFD, I think Golden is the instigator. His prime candidates were Matt and Wilgy but SVS presented a case against Fuzz and he went with that, but not immediately I feel.

I don't like ika's posts where he posted let's lynch you next(I think directed at sig and Epignosis). As for Silverwolf, she first stated that she didn't think the CFD was a good idea but she jumped in anyway, even appearing to be so sure that Fuzz was scum when Fuzz appeared to try and dig himself out of the hole.

Epignosis looked like a fence-sitter along with Sloonei, but Sloonei eventually voted for Fuzz. Also, I seem to recall Sloonei went out for a bit and came back surprised with the Fuzz bandwagon.

Turnip Head's most memorable role in all this are his emoticons and one-worded replies which were to me hilarious.

I still honestly can't figure out zebra, Enrique seems to be content on calling everyone a cop(Sloonei, then me after the flip)

That's how I interpreted the last hour of the 2nd day. Haven't caught up with the rest of you, I will try tomorrow.
I don't understand this either. He exonerated SVS for starting the CFD, acknowledged TH placed the first vote (without taking a stance), but still called Golden the "instigator" in a negative tone to describe his suspicion of him. I don't follow this thought process at all. Serge I really need you to drop by and tell me what was going on in your head.

-------------

Of the UTR group, Serge looks like the most viable suspect so far to me.

I want to remake my point that when I made my initial case on Dragon, Serge was notable for saying how good my case was and then promptly changing the subject, voting elsewhere. If DDL flips bad, I bet Serge is on his team.

Silverwolf wrote: Wouldn't cry over a Serge lynch either. When I say wouldn't cry over a lynch-I mean I wouldn't object if it happened just in case anyone was wondering.

I'll be gone all day but will get back to this later.

Serge is probably bad, so I agree with you here.
I'm a little puzzled over the switch from Sig to Ika today. I don't have a strong read on Ika one way or the other, but overall, I'm pretty pleased with how the lynch votes are stacking up. I may get my dragon scalp yet.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:That's the second time in an hour or so that Golden and I have made like the exact same post, and both times it was accidental.

Do you two have BTSC?

ika wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
ika wrote:
Prisoner 740359 wrote:ika and Silver having both wolves in their avatar is confusing. Are they really wolfbuddies or something more?
we are dating IRL, she is the love of my life and i would nothing else but to be with her
But you are capable of understanding that just because you like someone in real life doesn't automatically mean they are on the same side as you in a game, right?
was this ment to be off topic or not? cus this serves nothing but taking a jab at us. we know that full well and if we think another is scumw e dont hestiate.

you could see where shes voting right now and see that she thinks im scum.

Everything I post is on topic.

Warden wrote:I understand you people like rainbows.

We really don't.

ika wrote:
Prisoner 740359 wrote:ika and Silver having both wolves in their avatar is confusing. Are they really wolfbuddies or something more?
we are dating IRL, she is the love of my life and i would nothing else but to be with her

But you are capable of understanding that just because you like someone in real life doesn't automatically mean they are on the same side as you in a game, right?

Silverwolf wrote:Why on Earth are people voting for Dragon?

Because they are finally learning to listen to my instincts.

Scotty and SVS, help me with Dragon today, and I promise to join you in lynching Quin tomorrow.

Golden wrote:DDL

Because I hear rumour that prisoner 509 won best civilian in the Slammers 2015.

But also because I think DDL is bad.

Okay, now I'll switch my vote. DDL

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