The Syndicate

Well I'm going down.

But lacey, I beseech you, don't trust cobalt! That is all. Assuming that the game isn't over.

Well, ok. Good luck. It's not my fault if you lose. You should have lynched epi first, then you would know.

Lacey - I may be going today. If I am, so be it.

However, if you are not on a team with cobalt, I really suggest that you consider him strongly for lynch tomorrow. That's my advice. I implore you to listen.

Good luck to the town whoever you are. I hope it's lacey, I hope you pull it off.

That's it from me, I don't need to keep playing with a salty cobalt. Only he knows his alignment, and whether he really thinks I am bad, for sure. I wish I had been around one more day to prove it, but it looks like this isn't how it is going..

Oh really cobalt? All you had to do was kill me?

Well what if recruit team only have even night kills? You only found out my power yesterday. Stop throwing stupid logic around.

Dom, I plead with you. Read these posts carefully. That's all I can ask. If you think I'm bad and you vote for me, I understand.

But I think the evidence is all there, and I think we lose this game if we do not lynch Cobalt today, and I really need your help.

Unfortunately, I feel you also probably won an extra vote in the trivia, because I know I once again just missed out on winning it, so I'm certain that I'm going to lose the flip unless Dom comes in and votes with us. I think you guys could see a way to win this game right now and took it. Well done, well played. But I'll do everything I possibly can to stop it.

What does turned around on you even mean, and how is it relevant?

I know who Dom is, and see no reason they should not vote, but I'm sure you do hope I lose the tie, because I think if I lose this tie you and Ninja and probably lacey have this game won, and you know what my power is and know that I am the one power you don't want in this game to stop you right now.

And honestly 'four recruits is OP as fuck'

Like, trying to push 'the recruit power must be every night'. What if it was just odd or just even nights? We don't know how the recruiting power worked. It was super-secret.

You think Epi and I are a team? I came in to today saying Epi was my first choice for a lynch, and I meant it. I've only changed that because of the way you showed YOUR hand. I'm not on a team with Epi.

Bass checked you on NIGHT ONE OR TWO, not night three. MM was checked on night three. That's just an outright lie. I did this analysis days ago. Don't try and spin it now.

That means there was, depending on timing, every single night is on the table for you to have been recruited.

@lacey - yes we do know cobalt 2 isn't original baddie.

I still am 99% sure he is bad.

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:By your own logic of whatever alignment Dom 2 and Epi 2 are, they are better off voting for you. Especially if they are civilian.

This is just ridiculous. My logic comes from knowing that I AM civilian. My logic is about there being a two person team trying to win this game RIGHT NOW and it looks to me like that is you and cobalt, and yes that would make you the recruit team not the original baddies.

@cobalt - you took the words right out of my mouth. I wish cookie hadn't self-voted like that. I hope that Dom sees sense as well.

If Dom does not vote for you, the civilians ARE GOING TO LOSE.

If I'm wrong about Cobalt being bad, then lynch me tomorrow.

Exactly.

I've been 99% certain you are bad for a while, which is why your vote doesn't surprise me. I expected it entirely. I haven't been able to get traction, but I think thats because you have pulled the wool over peoples eyes. Not my eyes.

Seriously, though, I think if Dom and Epignosis join me today then they still have a chance of winning the game, whether or not they are civ or recruits or bad. If they do not join me, I think you win the game, with whoever your teammates are, and me and the civilians lose. It's as simple as that.

I'm telling it exactly how I think it is cobalt. There are two teams left, and whichever team you are not on, if they don't vote for you today I think you and your team win, and I do not think you are civilian.

For one thing, I don't think you would have voted for me if you were.

Damnit, I was expecting Cobalt and one more vote to come my way, but I wasn't expecting it to be lacey.

I wish cookie's vote was still out there.

Everyone, I'm almost certain there is a team of two left. I don't know whether it is the baddies or the recruits, but if they lynch me now and get one more kill, its over.

The fact lacey and cobalt are going after me right now makes me think it may be them, and that its the recruits. Or else that lacey is just wrong and cobalt has taken advantage.

Please Dom, Epi... trust me and take out Cobalt. Even if you are bad, I don't think you are going to win unless you do this. It's mutual interest time. If I'm wrong and Cobalt is not bad, lynch me tomorrow.

And no, I'm not original baddie and I'm not a recruit.

Unless there is a seemer of course, in which case we are in trouble... so I hope there isn't.

You and Dom go without saying. I completely trust you because there is no chance Dom was recruited and as for you it's only very slim, I already did the analysis ages ago. I only mentioned cobalt out of the three people I'm thinking of for a lynch, because cobalt can only be a recruit not an original baddie.

Well, Lacey, here is where things are from my perspective.

I feel like the recruiter must be the team that killed SVS, so even night kill. I think the baddies must be odd night kill.

I am thinking cookie may not be a baddie, but if not I think she could be a recruit.

I am worried that one of the factions has more than one remaining member. I feel confident in you and in dom - if you are the recruit, then well done... I think you will win because you have me fooled.

I have cookie/epignosis/cobalt left, at least two of whom I think must be bad but I think it is possible all three are.

The only person that I think is clearly not original baddie is cobalt.

My preferred lynch today is Epignosis, who I could see being a member of either team.

I hope there is only one recruit and one baddie left, the numbers are bad. But that post did make it sound like there is one left of each. AND it made it clear that kill was baddie.

A few things to work through:

Lacey - what do you think are the chances that cobalt is a recruit? I'm really fixated on this only because I think if he is a recruit and we don't realise it, then it's game over.

I feel like today and tomorrow might be lynch right or lose.

I think cookie might still be the way to go for today, but really cookie, epignosis and cobalt are all on the table for me.

I didn't vote for Eloh and didn't get the suspicion, so I think if you go back and do a reread there is probably no good reason for you to think I'm clean.

But I am clean, I was not recruited by Eloh.

Cobalt 2 remains my top suspect. As per my analysis, there was plenty of opportunity after bass checked him for him to be recruited, also I think I know who is behind the sock and I think this is their baddie game (not sure if I'm allowed to name names, though). Interesting theory that he was one of the two that missed a PM. It's a good one, there are two people who seem slightly less engaged than the rest and Cobalt is one. But I'm not sure that we should assume that even night kills are necessarily the same as the recruit team.

It could well be sig 2. I intend to do a readback. There are people I get good vibes from, but that I have done no research on. Sig and Epi are two in particular.

And llama as civilian blocker did surprise me. I thought his subtle hints were a fake-claim. I mean, I guess if he is coming back civ, then he wouldn't fake claim. But the fact I did not believe this was part of the reason I was convinced he was bad. Oh well.

And that ticking is ominous

Dammit. RIP llama/scotty.

I'm really frustrated and surprised at that for more reasons that one.

MM2 didn't even vote at all. I feel like at this end it is important that we are all here and present.

I feel like I have a huge amount of skin in this one, because I did all the research and I'm feeling really good about this. I hope it's right!

Cobalt 2 wrote:Got busy. Voting llama.

I'll be honest, this surprised me.

My gut was saying you were going to come back and change your mind to sig.

I definitely favour a llama lynch to a sig lynch, and the more I think on it the more convinced I am that I'm right about llama. So that's the way I'm voting.

I don't think it matters either way.

Llama's team killed him.
Or they were blocked, or it wasn't even llama's team, and he died as a hider.

To me, there is plenty of evidence to suggest llama is on whatever team SVS was not.

Interesting that Cobalt said 'all signs point to early recruit' though. I don't think it is clear whether there are two original bad teams, or just the one plus a recruit team. I did think llama could be outright bad, or a recruit, both are options for me.

Cobalt, are there specific reasons why you lean towards recruit?

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Rico 2, are the only 2 people you're really considering today llama 2 and Cookie 2, or is there anyone else?

There really isn't, not today. There is a narrow band of people who can be bad, and that does include Sig, epi, and potentially cobalt. Those three I don't get particularly bad vibes from, enough to justify a vote ahead of the other two.

Although I strongly lean llama over cookie right now.

OK, that's really useful. We know that these four reads were all legitimate.

One more, splints - if Bass checked someone and they were recruited the same night, what would the outcome be?

MM - on night four bass says he feels sorry MM feels ignored. On Day 5 MM is his friend. MM was checked night 4. With eloh dead on day 5, MM can only possibly be bad if splints answer to the question above is that Bass would get a 'civilian' outcome and survive.

Lacey - bass was going after lacey hard on day three, but then lacey was his new friend on day 4. So Lacey was checked night 3. With Eloh dead on day 5, this still leaves open the slight possibility of a recruit

Cobalt - ON night 3 we have this:

Bass 2 wrote:For what it's worth, I thought on Cobalt more after I voted him and decided that his tone wasn't "hiding" per se.

While this doesn't clear Synonym 2, as people have brought up the possibility of multiple baddie teams, it makes it pretty unlikely IMO that they were on the same team. Willingly turning Day 3 into a Syn 2 VS Long Con 2 debate would be a lose-lose for them.

Lacey 2 answer me, am I your friend? I like friends.

This suggests to me that Bass had checked cobalt on night one or two (probably night 2). There is a chance Cobalt could have been recruited.

Dom - clearly checked on night 6, so no chance of a recruit.

I also note that I get the sense that Bass wanted to check reywas on Night 5 and was possibly blocked. He posted on night 7, but given he neither died nor added to his friends list I'm guessing he never sent in a PM because he wasn't expecting an early night end.

Thankfully, Bass really left all his breadcrumbs very thoroughly, so if you do your own readback I'm sure you will all agree with my analysis.

I'm not certain about two teams with a kill, but I've had it in my mind for a long time and now I think it's probable. Particularly because why would mafia kill SVS on night 6. I have mentioned a possible redirect, and I'm not ruling that out either, but I also think golden was probably bad and died on night 2.

Timmer 2 died on night 4.

I guess an even night killer could be a serial killer, or it could be eloh/ninja's super-secret secret and her recruit(s) inhereted the kill. Either way amounts to the same for me.

As for who has been thinking about the possibility of two teams - how about just sticking with me. This is what I had to say on day 4...

Ricochet 2 wrote:I was also downright wrong. I don't think synonym is LC's teammate. I'm not going to vote synonym today, even though I think a second team is possible, but we have no evidence of it. Anyway, if anyone is on a second team, I'm looking squarely at llama and boo, both of who seemed confused about why golden would be alive when the answer seemed obvious to me (no double targetting). My immediate thought was they knew they had killed golden the night before and it wouldn't be double targetting.

When I get a moment I'll do a Rico-esque post, but I'm looking at the following in particular so far today: boo, llama, elohcin, cookie, MM. I don't agree with the points raised on BR or lacey yet so I'd have to be convinced, and don't see any reason to suspect anyone else right now.

I've been really sick - up during the night, sleeping during the day, I'm not in good shape. I'm trying to contribute as much as I can so sorry if its not as much as I would like, hopefully it passes in a day or two.

I'm not 'caught up in it', but surely you can see it makes a lot of sense of events. I'm not making an 'assumption', I am making a theory, one which I find convincing enough that you are my likeliest candidate for a vote.

I've done an iso on llama and I generally feel pretty ok about him not being on the mafia team that had SVS on it, at least.

There appears to be nothing I can see that really connects llama to eloh/ninja either for bad or for good, including the vote that day.

The fact that llama is pretty sure SVS is bad and the next night SVS is nightkilled might be significant.

Timmer 2, worth a look, died on night 4, his iso has some posts about llama.

I feel like what has happened in this game could be very consistent with llama being the even night killer.

I would feel very ok with my vote going there.

Thread analysis can likely solve this one, I'll do some when I can.

One of those nights was ended very early, and it was only 6 possibilities. Take out night one (possibly cookie missed) and that leaves you 5... including death night. MM night three, lacey night four, cobalt night five, dom night 6, llama night 8.

Unfortunately, if that is correct I think it also leaves some of the earlier results open to having been recruited afterwards?

All things considered, I keep coming back to Cookie as the best choice for a lynch.

A block

It's not difficult to come up with a plausible theory.

Llama 2 wrote:Again, on top of any of this: sig was Bass' other suspect to look into.

So anything he is saying right after Bass' death is quite an opportunistic short-sightedness

He did make it pretty clear he was targetting you last night, though, right?

Also, I think I just found a flaw in relying absolutely on Bass's civilian reads - maybe...

Hosts - if Bass was blocked, would he know?

Oh, yes, lacey I see your point. It's definitely not a slam dunk and I didn't realise sig had discounted the possibility of a nk. Bass may have just been nked.

Having looked back at that post which I found after seeing bass was a hider, I could also see how someone might read that, think Bass is a cop and either a) protect llama or b) frame llama.

Lacey, I don't understand what it is about that sig post that you don't understand.

What is it that FS clarified?

I completely agree with sig's post. I think it seems very likely that llama is proven bad. What am I missing that you think says otherwise?

OK, that bass reveal is massive and might help guide us to the end.

I had a feeling this post was just Dr Wilgy being Dr Wilgy, but now it might have more meaning:

Bass 2 wrote:Re: Why I want everyone to talk about how/why/if I'm anti-Town.
Because nobody is. Either someone brings up an inconsistency in my actions that looks bad and discussion is had that will most likely be productive, or nobody says anything. In that case, if anybody comes out of the blue the next few days with some supposedly "long-standing" suspicions of me since before this time I'll know they're full of it.

The next order of business is to resume scumhunting. I believe I've done a good job townhunting with Lacey 2, MM2, and Cobalt 2. I've been feeling better about Dom 2, also, since the Golden 2 business I stirred up. It felt like he was keeping an open mind rather than just hiding behind the wagon. I'd like to look into Llama 2 and Sig 2 in particular tomorrow. I'll personally look into Llama's posts tonight, and report my findings tomorrow afternoon. If he's hiding something, I'll find it.

When did Bass find these friends... were they one a day? I'm betting we can use this post as a pretty reliable vouch for who is not bad.

Also, did he die from NK or because he hid behind llama?

RIP bass

That didn't really answer what a hider is.

I don't know what it is either.

I've been wondering whether I'm right about cookie over the last few days, but I keep coming back to the win condition slip and I can't get past it easily. It seems odd that all the known baddies would distance from cookie and nearly get her lynched on the boo lynch day (unless cookies ability is to start with negative votes, which I guess is possible). But epi's theory of two different camps having kills on odd/even makes sense to me, because it would be odd that mafia would kill two of their own, unless a redirector is at play.

I think this option is possible too though... if someone redirected, say, SVS to golden... thought it was possible they had found a killer, and so redirected her onto herself on night 6, that also seems viable to me.

But anyway, if there were two different killers out there, and even night kills is not the baddies... I could see cookie as an independent serial killer who would also not know the town win condition. So my starting point today is back to lynching cookie.

But I am also hoping to spend time looking back at players still in the game and seeing if I can find any links to the baddies and to eloh/ninja. I think Dom is correct when he says there must be at least one person left on each of those teams, and it's possible there could even be more than one on one or both teams, and it's possible we do have something like a serial killer, so I feel way more urgent about our chances and need to get this right than I was really feeling a couple of days ago.

Some quickfire points.

Elo did some kill analysis that looks really sounds to me. Even night kills have been responsible for killing known and probable baddies, so we may have two kills out there (unless redirects have been happening). For me this means we should be equally worried, potentially, about both the known baddie team and Elo's recruit team - or else there is a third faction again that we may need to worry about.

Bass - right now you are the person I trust the least. Simply answering your question honestly. You are also a big part of why I feel I trust Cookie a little more after boo/cookie day. It felt to me like you knew both would come back good and were ready to paint a target on rey whichever way he voted and whoever was lynched. That whole self-vote thing around the end of that lynch was a massive red flag to me.

That's all. Sorry, I don't have a lot of time to dedicate to this right now, I'll be back tomorrow.

Dom 2 wrote:

Ricochet 2 wrote:

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:In the boo 2 lynch, SVS 2, Scotty 2, and Golden 2 all voted cookie 2.

So, if after Golden 2 is lynched we don't find out we have eliminated a baddie team, I think our next options are Cookie 2, who they all voted for to distance from, or Epignosis 2, who voted along with them.
Cobalt 2 also voted Cookie 2, but in comparison to Epi 2, for a baddie on that team, it seems unlikely.

Personally, I think Cookie 2 is the obvious choice to lynch first between them; but since this lynch is already locked down, unless there is still more manipulation to come; I figure it can't hurt to think ahead and get the discussion started.

Thoughts?

I've been thinking cookie is covering for golden for ages...

But every single baddie votes cookie for distance? I doubt it. If anything it makes me feel much better about cookie.

Tinfoil hat theory here.

We saw the day end early and reywas go down yesterday, right? If this power belongs to the baddies, then they surely could start piling votes on a comrade for distancing credit. Cookie 2 never did lead that lynch, and it was never a tie until SVS 2 (albeit a flipped baddie) tied it up at 6-6 at the end of the day.

According to this theory, the votes that day period don't mean a whole lot. Except for llama 2 who voted for SVS 2. In retrospect, that is strangely coincidental.

SVS put cookie in the lead. Then rey came back and tied it 6-6.

I don't get the theory though. You think they were thinking they could end the day early with the votes on boo if need be?

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:In the boo 2 lynch, SVS 2, Scotty 2, and Golden 2 all voted cookie 2.

So, if after Golden 2 is lynched we don't find out we have eliminated a baddie team, I think our next options are Cookie 2, who they all voted for to distance from, or Epignosis 2, who voted along with them.
Cobalt 2 also voted Cookie 2, but in comparison to Epi 2, for a baddie on that team, it seems unlikely.

Personally, I think Cookie 2 is the obvious choice to lynch first between them; but since this lynch is already locked down, unless there is still more manipulation to come; I figure it can't hurt to think ahead and get the discussion started.

Thoughts?

I've been thinking cookie is covering for golden for ages...

But every single baddie votes cookie for distance? I doubt it. If anything it makes me feel much better about cookie.

I feel like we are in the box seat for a win from here. The only concern I have is would we know about ninja's recruits? If someone has been recruited, would we be told if we killed them? Because we haven't seen any yet.

Wow, a lot happened while I was not around. Two night ends and a day end! I'm not sure what happened on that first night, was the mafia kill blocked? And there is another civ ninja or prize? Maybe it was a redirect.

Voted for golden 2. RIP rey, sorry to lose you.

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:If two people died as GG and a tracker, and juliets died as a tracker, then there are 2 trackers in the game, but one of the two GG's has to be a seemer?

Yes. One of the GG's has to be a seemer.

Lipsticklacey 2 wrote:Interesting.

Pretty damning I think. I know where my vote is going tomorrow.

Boo might not have been bad (or he may have - I'm pretty sure not though). But we definitely have one baddie either way. Two including Scotty. That's a great outcome and a huge swing!

Bass 2 wrote:That's precisely why I'm abstaining. I know who I want to vote for and why, but I'm interested in seeing who breaks the tie and where the other vote goes after that. I'm sorry if it appears that I'm toying with your life, for what it's worth.

Are you trying to prepare ammunition for another round against rey?

Dom 2 wrote:I regret my vote. If I could do it all over again, I'd do it all over you I'd vote for Cookie instead.

Quoted for truth. I apologise to everyone, hosts included, for getting emotive. I'm glad we have moved on.

This is what I found when I googled cute puppy with strawberry. I'm not sure of the breed...

Stop it with the personal attacks.

Boo, you don't get to come in and claim bts knowledge about lacey. If people are talking to you about game stuff out of game, then it is probably only because it was necessary to resolve issues. You don't then get to bring that into the thread.
Whoever contacted Dom 2 - Dom, I hope you told the hosts, that person should be modkilled. There is no excuse for trying to interfere with the game behind the scenes.

Can we please play the game, instead of playing that incident.

I really regret my vote for boo - I stepped away from the thread and got a bit of context, although reading through everything I've begun to lose it again.

THESE HOSTS DESERVE BETTER THAN CONTINUED RULE INFRINGEMENTS BOTH IN THE THREAD AND BEHIND THE SCENES.

The mods dealt with the things they felt they needed to deal with. That is THEIR JOB. It is not OUR job as players to play mod. Again, if people are doing things they shouldn't, tell the hosts, tell the mod on duty. Please, lets keep it out of the game thread.

I wish I could take it back and vote for cookie, the person who I think is most likely to be bad. I think she knew she would be on the block today and used boo as a convenient opportunity to steer the thread away from suspecting her.

She wants us to debate the merits of keeping boo for very non-mafia reasons but in the style of playing mafia. Not agreeing with things boo said has nothing to do with playing mafia. It's a completely different thing.

Cookie 2 wrote:You are making it sound like Lacey & I are twisting wrists, but we are just arguing our points, like we do in Mafia.

This is what I'm trying to say, I don't like trying to pretend like the boo situation is just a part of the game, to me it is not just a part of the game, and I don't feel at all comfortable arguing it 'like mafia', it makes me feel ill.

I don't want it to sound like you and lacey are twisting wrists, I just don't think this is a case of a right or a wrong answer - I don't like that it derails the game in fact I really hate that.

I feel peer pressured into being forced to take a stand on it and be aggressive about it and that is not what I wanted to do, is all.

I used the word 'upset' because I didn't immediately want to go out and attack someone, even if they deserved it. Then I get criticised for calling it 'upset' because others want to call him a jcakass and be more aggressive about it. I just hate the whole thing. There is a line between life and mafia and I don't like when they get confused.

I've gotten myself all worked up over this, so I'm just going to step away, and come back to the thread when I've calmed down.

I feel like I'm under personal attack right now.

I don't want to touch the boo situation with a barge poll. I wanted to stay well out of it. I think it's something the mods should deal with. When I talked about boo being upset, I was trying to be conciliatory, even though I really don't approve of his behaviour. Yes, I read the post, but I don't think piling shit on top of shit is a good thing to be doing. We shouldn't have to be coming in with pitchforks.

I'm voting for boo, because I feel like I'm going to upset people who are probably real life friends if I don't and I feel kind of peer pressured into it. I really don't like it, and I don't like being made to feel like I'm accepting the homophobic behaviour by not wanting to let it derail an entire day of the game. But whatever. I just hope he is bad. Better still, I hope he provides us evidence of two teams.

I wish, though, that a couple of people had respected me on that. When it comes to a situation like that, I don't think people should be pushed into or out of their decision. Can we all just make it for ourselves? I didn't want this to be like this.

Honestly, Lacey and Cookie, your responses to me just then make me want to ask for a modkill, I don't like the way anyone is trying to force others into this. Please back off!