The Syndicate

I also need to change the e-mail address back, but I forgot what it was.

I'm not posting who I was yet. You all have three guesses.

Epignosis wrote:How appropriate: Seven winners.

Feel free to post as yourselves.

Wait, Samson?

Deborah wrote:I'm starting to get tied up in work again, so I'm going to vote for Belshazzar. I feel strongly that voting patterns are most important, and he did seem to vote in some spots that look like saves. And while I appreciate his output, there have been plenty of players (like MP) who can routinely be the top poster in the game and be bad, so I'm not weighting Bel's output as strongly as his voting record.

That's ok, Deborah. Next game I'll play like you or many others. To hell with top posting.

Balaam wrote:By my reckoning we are missing seven votes. Barring a miracle appearance by Bathsheba and Malchus, we can really handicap that down to five vote: Balaam, Belshazzar, Jonah, Rebecca, and Samuel.

I can't see Belshazzar voting for himself, so it will take some kind of late voting shenanigans from the other four to prevent his stoning.

I like how you included yourself on the shenanigans making watchlist.

Well that's a wrap, so I'll stay true to my word and place my vote on Rebecca.

My contributions truly were genuine, despite my flawed votes. Maybe some of you will still take note of that. That being said... I can't say you'll feel sad about me. In fact, you will most likely resent me after this lynch. I told you in a previous post there'd be repercussions, so brace for it.

And so with that mind, one final message for the Heathens as well:

Goliath and Nebuchadnezzar, hear me out! It is imperative that you take out Jacob, before any of you get dragged into a lynch. Imperative, I say. Do it! Just...

Absalom wrote:

Belshazzar wrote:So, again, I'm supposedly bad for saving you and lynching my teammate in immediate reaction to her voting to save her skin and get you lynched. The timeline in the posts is actually a bit screwy, too, because both Balaam and I decided to vote Ruth and then she voted within a minute or so and it was further incentive to go ahead with the vote. So yeah, top notch baddie movie there.

Hey everyone, should I end my game at 666 posts?

Are you seriously suggesting that no baddie would ever vote for his teammate, that he would ALWAYS attempt a save, even a totally obvious one?

I'm saying the SPECIFIC context of what happened there would not paint me as such. Synchronic invaldation of a teammate's plan to survive? Nah.

But enough about this. You're obviously done and I'm done as well. I wish you better luck with your next suspects starting the next Day. Two of them voted for me in no time. I'll be back in a couple hours for my closing statement.

So, again, I'm supposedly bad for saving you and lynching my teammate in immediate reaction to her voting to save her skin and get you lynched. The timeline in the posts is actually a bit screwy, too, because both Balaam and I decided to vote Ruth and then she voted within a minute or so and it was further incentive to go ahead with the vote. So yeah, top notch baddie movie there.

Hey everyone, should I end my game at 666 posts?

Absalom wrote:Okay, question for all the Belshazzar apologists. Why do you think he is so civvie, specifically?

I get the nervousness about a bandwagon, but what has he done to make you think he is good? I am really really confused by Esther's posts and vote. Has she not been reading at all?

, he asks, whilst not addressing anything else said since his last visit.

Maybe Phinehas can practice his javelin throw a bit on someone other than me. Like... Rebecca. What say you? Are you still around?

Please let him not be bloody Malchus or Bathsheba...

Thank you, Esther. Although I'm not sure spreaded votes will do much to not get lynched either. Didn't you vote Isaac yesterday? Do you think he would have been a mislynch?

That being said, if I will be beyond save, I will probably vote Rebecca, maybe that'll raise awareness or something. I remember another good guy, called Jeph, who did just that before dying...

Pilate wrote:Sorry, Belsh... it's not about Absalom having godly cred, it's about the actual case against you.

Yes, the case that you swiftly appreciated Absalom finding. You've done nothing but agree with him since wanting him dead Day 6.

No more good seats at my feasts for you, Prefect!

Jacob wrote:Elaborate post there Belsh. I have to say I've had my doubts, but that's really a baddie defense if I ever saw one. *votes*

Thank you, top suspect with role claim defense.

I don't see what's so scummy about Balaam's post. Since I'm not one of them, it's perfectly true that the Heathens will wagon or even push for my lynch. I'll get lynched, they will get to night kill, player field reduced by two. Since my record is so circumstancially incriminating and will prove a false lead, it'll likely be harder to pick up again next Day and find actual Heathens from a different, less incriminating angle (although I disagree a bit here, because I pointed out there may be Heathens to be found from the same angle that incriminates me).

Unfortunately, I don't know if I fully agree Balaam's plan itself would work very well. Yes, the Heathens will find it easy to push for my lynch, but I fear it'll also be easy for them to join a large pool of civs looking to lynch me. In other words, if you "leave me dangling", there will be

A. civs who will give Absalom godly civ cred and vote to lynch me
B. two Heathens who will wagon my lynch train

If the two votes I already have aren't by Heathens (I still feel good about Absalom, despite all this), then it means I'll receive an instant +2 at any point, which, given how many players are actively voting and the likelihood of my lynch train going smoothly, is quite serious. Presumably they'll vote later, to see if my fate is sealed. Now, if I wouldn't become a lynch train, then maybe the Heathens would have to refrain as well, not to seem obvious that they'd be so comfortable with me being mislynched.

But I seriously doubt I won't become a lynch train, mainly because of A. Let me offer templates for some of the late hour votes:

"[I'm sorry I didn't have time, life so hard. / (Hi my name is Deborah and I promise to contribute. Eventually. Deborah 2016) / No time to catch up] Absalom's case is convincing, good job. / I agree that everything about Belshazzar shouts Heathen / I agree with everything that's been said. / I never fully trusted that Belshy fella. Voting Belshazzar. (*optional mic dropping*) [Hope he is bad./ (Sorry if you're good)]"

I also agree that if you lynch somebody else and he's also a civ, then the reaction tomorrow will be "I told you guys we should have lynched Belshazzar. I told you! I told you! I told you!"

So, as I've said, I'm 70% toast, either way. Maybe even more.

Not sure about the NK plan. First off, I don't want to die that way either! Second, just like I doubt that mislynching me will create total chaos in finding new angles as to where the real Heathens might be, them NKing me will probably not fully work that way either. Besides, the issue of waiting to see if Heathens NK me to prove I'm not bad is the same we've had with Isaac, when pondering if we should wait to see if the Heathens will eliminate him, after he hinted at being civ (although I now understand that no such intention was truly meant). Third, see all the paragraphs above. If I don't get lynched and a civ is stoned and the Heathens don't NK me, everyone will hate me and want to lynch me even more the next Day; extra day of rest and normal death flow (lynch + NK) for the Heathens.

Absalom wrote:I think we have a pretty good idea who the last heathen might be, at least down to two or three people.

We do? You do? Who are they? Let me check.

Rahab. Huh.
Jacob. Ok.
Isaac. Ok. Also notice how Isaac buddied up immediately with you and your case?

Did you bring them up today? Why not? Why don't you consider them alongside me, at least?
Ruth. Jonathan. Mordecai. You've always hunted for one person. Everything you've said all day is "lynch Belsh, lynch Belsh, lynch Belsh", yet you say you also have a good idea who the last Heathen besides me might be? Please.

Absalom wrote:But I don't think I've ever seen as clear a pattern that points to baddie behavior as the combination of Belshazzar's votes and posts, and I'm amazed anyone is having second thoughts about it.

Votes be votes, but what posts? And I'm sorry, but you'll have to pull more than the alleged "damn you Samson" and "oh look, Belsh went soft on Mordecai, that pisses me off".

Also, I'm still shocked that you'd think that, on Day 6, when Ruth voted you to keep you high up the tally, I, as her teammate, would just come and say "I'm sorry, Ruthy dear, but that's not fair. Tsk tsk. I'm voting to save Absalom and to throw you under the bus". A Heathen bussing that Day makes absolutely no sense, because no confirmed Heathen did that to Ruth (the ones who did vote Ruth until then were you, two dead civvies - Jeph and Rachel -, Stephen and Lot) and there's no logic in me having done so, if the current tally would have been Absalom 7, Ruth 5, Rachel 4.

Absalom wrote:If it walks like a Heathen, and if it quacks like a Heathen, it's probably a Heathen.

Well, that's nice, but tomorrow you'll have to start figuring who is Heathen that doesn't quite walk like a Heathen and doesn't quite quack like a Heathen.

Balaam wrote:Unfortunately, I'm just not feeling as strongly as you do about Isaac, Jacob, and Rebecca at the moment. I'll keep mulling them over though.

Sad to hear that, but it amuses me that I sort of said the same thing about Mordecai yesterday and look where I am. Will you come under fire if Rebecca, Isaac or Jacob will eventually flip bad? Who knows.

Epignosis wrote:Balaam
Sinner

Posts: 666
(View: All /In topic)

Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2013 1:15 pm
Participation Score: 0

So which is it: 666 or 616?

Check my post on how I read that my suspects might have behaved. Correlating this with what I've written on their attitudes wouldn't hurt either, because I gave none of them passing grades.

Absalom wrote:Guys, if we don't lynch Belshazzar with all the evidence against him, and it turns out he is bad, think about what idiots you will feel like for allowing him to trick you.

I am 100% sure that he is bad. Nothing will convince me otherwise. Th evidence is much too strong to ignore.

If only you'd change my name with someone else that fits the same sentence, you'd get a much better result come tomorrow.

So I'm actually going to have one more go at how things stand from my perspective, regardless if it'll fall on deaf ears or not. Otherwise, as I've said, I'll totally chill whilst others make what they want of me. I'm not kind of player to enjoy bickering till the last breath, when I'm being mislynched.

The D9 vote blows in my face almost perfectly. The fact that it was a tie (either decided by the Host or by a player with such secret abilities) is itself karmic. Here are the variants again:
1. Isaac would have been lynched and flipped bad. No pats on my back to be expected (as opposed to Lot), but it's the most decent I would have looked by far.
2. Isaac would have been lynched and flipped civ. I'd look bad.
3. Mordecai got lynched and flipped bad. I bad.

On the hypothetical side:
4. I would have voted Mordecai and Isaac would have been lynched and flipped bad. I would get the same baddie treatment, only from the Lot's side.
5. I would have voted Mordecai and Isaac would have been lynched and flipped civ. My vote would not have been consistent with my views on Lot's case on Isaac, if I would have already shared them (but why would I, if I were Heathen and needed to wait to see if I need to save my ass and buss Mordecai) or maybe I would have gotten eyeballed for "backpedalling" on my alleged "soft-view" of Mordecai or God knows what.

So that statistically is 70% being in shit just by taking a side in the two-way lynch.

I put Isaac and Mordecai on the bottom top list of my suspects beforehand. I asked about my actual top suspicion ahead of the Day's end, i.e. Rebecca. Results = 2. Mighty Absalom, slayer of Heathens, finding nothing of worth on her case, plus Rahab, considering it. I don't like spreading, so at around one hour and half to go and only seven bloody votes, I focused on this and found Isaac's case more compelling. From there on, check the abovementioned variants. Only one outcome in three would have not made me look shady as hell.

My surprise for Samson's zombie vote is genuine. Again, people, it's an approved zombie vote that decided a lynch. I think Samson also voted on the Day after he got lynched, but then everyone brushed it aside as an illegal move. We've talked in the past without any problem about other spooky activities that might influence our game. But this time, I simply get called for it. If I were Heathen and would know such comments would come off as butthurt, why would I say it?

I am a grave mislyncher and it only brings me greater anxiety each new game about never quite managing to do a fine job in this department. It blows up in my face easily, so I'm never entirely surprised when I find myself in a judgement day position. My vote records stands as bad as the main suspects I myself brought forth, and I never once denied that, but I never defended the confirmed Heathens, compared to shady comments others have made. To Mordecai I didn't even say stuff on him like Rahab ("I feel more wishy-washy with him than I do with my top suspects") or Esther ([his vote record is bad but] "I think he's been pretty helpful in the thread though.") - and please note it does not make them suddenly jump high on my suspects lists, for it.

Triple and I'm off until later:

I plan to spend this presumably last Day of mine reasonably relaxed from now on, especially after racking my brains the other Day. All my reads were done in a genuine way, if you care at all to revisit them after my mislynch. I'm usually put off in Mafia when I'm shot down the way Absalom did, calling me Mordecai's defender for no reason. Plus, given the current quality of the gameplay, in which three thirds of the players are last minute voters or pick up what the big writers offer and nothing else, I have no doubt I am toast. I will seriously reconsider in future games if I want to remain a player this engaged, given that others are doing so much better by doing so much less.

I don't like to play the "you'll be proven wrong" card, especially after criticising Isaac and Jacob for it, but as I've said, your glee will only turn bitter and there will be also repercussions for mislynching me.

You have my suspects, out of which Rebecca looks like a certain Heathen to me. I still wish the others would look at her, but apparently fat chance.

If anyone will wish to make a writing on the wall joke, for the sake of canon, I welcome it.

Now, time to unwind.

@ the "non-biblical" voter

Small window? Nah.

Isaac wrote:Another non-biblical voter? I wonder what his reasoning is...

Belshazzar wrote:Day 9: Mordecai giving up. Possible scenarios: Rebecca and Jonah out of picture. Samuel saving Mord. Jacob bussing Mord or looking better with his vote. Isaac, tbh, looking better with his self vote.

Nice backpedal,btw.
I'm pretty comfortable with my vote.

Did you explain why you self-voted? Are you even aware that your self-vote didn't do you any good and partially influenced you almost getting lynched? Oh that's right, you were baiting. Cool.

Am I supposed to figure out on the spot what's up with your self-vote? Isn't the whole point of a post-lynch analysis to elaborate closely how the votes look like? I gave Balaam my basic read, so it was just my first impression that I could come up with. In contrast, I spent the entire last Day extensively re-reading the game and look where it go me.

Enjoy your vote. If you're bad, it only aids you for me to be mislynched. If you're civ, good luck setting your next baits.

Isaac wrote:I don't claim to be a master of anything. (particularly not voting. I agree with you there).

I'm also not saying that your surprise about a dead player's vote going through is suspicious. You clearly wanted me dead over Mordecai. Your vote for me broke our 3 - 3 tie.

Yes, I'm aware I broke a tie but it was one hour to go and only 7 players have voted, Christ.
Again, I fall so comfortably under the axe, no matter what.

To Balaam:

Day 1: Uzz and Ruth went Cain's way, Mordecai Samson's. According to my suspects, the other Heathens either went Samson's way as well (Isaac, Jacob, Samuel) or spread (Rebecca, Jonah).

Day 2: Uzz voted, Mordecai and Ruth took a break. My suspects either also skiped the day (Jacob, Isaac) or kept a consistent spreading (Rebecca, Jonah).

Day 3: Ruth wagoned on Mary, Uzz and Mord started early potential. All my suspects contributed the same way (especially Rebecca starting Mary and Jacob adding second vote to it). Possible odd spread from Jonah too.

Day 4: all confirmed Heathen spread thin. Isaac and Jacob on a break again. Rebecca and Jonah possibly contributing to main wagons separately.

Day 5: Ruth and Mord bussed Uzziah. Jacob rested. Other suspects all possibly distancing by voting Jeph.

Day 6: No bussing of Ruth ehatsoever. Rachel or Lazarus gamble tactics in full flight. All my top suspects voted Rachel.

Day 7: Mordecai with odd singular vote. Possible scenarios: Rebecca and Samuel on board Jeph lynch. Jacob possibly spreading or distancing. Isaac out of picture.

Day 8: Mordecai still away from hot lynch. Possible scenarios: Rebecca and Isaac out of picture. Jacob and Samuel on board Jonathan lynch.

Day 9: Mordecai giving up. Possible scenarios: Rebecca and Jonah out of picture. Samuel saving Mord. Jacob bussing Mord or looking better with his vote. Isaac, tbh, looking better with his self vote.

Isaac wrote:

Belshazzar wrote:My top suspects are Rebecca, Jacob and Isaac, if it needs reminding. I've revisited the vote records and they still look just as bad, in context of Mordecai's flip.

In the context of Mordecai's flip? Forget you not, brother, that I suggested a Mordecai lynch before the night ended and before I went silent.

Lot wrote:Also, in my mind the team was Isaac, Belshazzar, Lazarus. I was surprised to see Belshazzar vote Isaac, because I actually expected him to vote Mordecai to save Isaac.

He voted me to save Mordecai. Note his surprise that Samson's vote caused a tie.

I set a trap and it looks like the 2 remaining Heathens took the bait. I'm voting Belsh now. Rahab should be considered for the next lynch.

Thank you for voting Lazarus, Lot. I would have died had you voted for me.

Yes, in context of Mordecai flipping bad, your vote record, as possible teammate, throughout the game, is still awful.

Pile on, baddie. Err I'm sorry, I mean master of baiting.

I'm sorry my surprise at a dead player voting and deciding lynches is so out of place.

Lot wrote:Also, in my mind the team was Isaac, Belshazzar, Lazarus. I was surprised to see Belshazzar vote Isaac, because I actually expected him to vote Mordecai to save Isaac.

Can't wait for you to go back to my Lazarus read and declare it proof that I am his teammate, just because I'm not on the same wavelength.

I said I'm open to discussion, but I don't find that it happened too much, so far. Your deduction would be brilliant, if true, because of the bullzeye night kill on Martha and the small window required to faithfully start faking Simon's powers. But it's still the longshot option for me for statistical reasons and for the fact that the player under the Lazarus sock is usually too obvious at the power he uses.

Answer me this, however: since you were suddenly frightened, 10 minutes left into the lynch, when Lazarus voted you, of the prospect of him being Simon and still being empowered enough to doom you to be lynched, how is that consistent with your belief that he's bad? You're flipping between the options yourself, depending on the momentum.

As I've wondered (before being labeled as desperate), maybe Isaac is Heathen, and Mordecai chose not to sacrifice him by saving himself. But if that's true, and I were also Heathen, why would I sacrifice Isaac when Mordecai didn't?

This is classic case of me falling under two axes:
If Isaac would have been lynched and flip bad, Lot would have had the victory lap and I would have looked decent.
If Isaac would have been lynched and flip civ, I would have looked bad.
But Mordecai flipped bad, Absalom got the victory lap and I look bad anyway because I didn't conform to his case.

Absalom wrote:

Belshazzar wrote:I have no issue with you taking delight, Absalom, as you well deserve it, but tomorrow, should you lynch me, will only turn bitter.

Tomorrow? I'm voting for you now. At this point, nothing will convince me you are good until I see you flip.

That is what I meant, the end of Day. Your glee will only turn sour.

(Err ok actually two days from now)

I leave for tonight, but I'll decide upon return, depending on new reactions, how much of an insult it is to have spent two days re-reading every single player only to be painted by you and Balaam as a defender of Mordecai.

I also see potential Heathens with role-claim gambits to already suck up to your findings, which only adds to the insult.

My top suspects are Rebecca, Jacob and Isaac, if it needs reminding. I've revisited the vote records and they still look just as bad, in context of Mordecai's flip.

I have no issue with you taking delight, Absalom, as you well deserve it, but tomorrow, should you lynch me, will only turn bitter.

Maybe Isaac is nonetheless a Heathen and there wouldn't have been much saving either way inside the team, if Mordecai would have voted him to die instead.

So Samson's vote counted? And the tie was decided randomly or by someone?

Impressive turn of events, anyway. Burn in hell, Mordecai!

I'm surprised Balaam missed it, of all people.

Samson? What the fuck?!

Jonah could be a baddie gone silent.

Lot, you think Simon actually keeps his vote empowered, despite breaking the chain on consecutive votes? That would suck.

linki

Lot wrote:@Belsh - does that mean you agree with my point 2 in the first post, because I sort of said it counted in favour of Isaac being civilian rather than against? Just want to be clear about your perspective here.

I definitely think it's clear Mordecai is silenced.

I don't tend to give an alignment verdict for such viewpoints, because from past experience civs can both focus on their primary, clearly stated win condition, and want to eliminate every role that's not civ-friendly, but Heathens, in the whole equation, would always have to blend in and side with the civs in their statements/viewpoints, otherwise they'd easily get eyeballed, at least, or worse, have a lynch case started on them.

I read Lot's case on Isaac and I support it, except for minor points like #2 (I actually agree with his viewpoint, because he agrees with my own in it, so duh) and #6 in his first post. The latter mostly because I've checked and it was on Night 3 so he probably feared being killed by God (especially with Balaam demanding low posters not be spared). I don't get the "street cred" sentence either, but the rest seems fluff.

What really ticked me off, and Lot rehashed it well, was him defending Uzziah then slightly, maybe self-aware too, backing it up. Besides that, a distancing from Ruth, even on the day of her lynch, could really be plausible as a variation. Since I'm not as sympathetic to his hint as I am to Jacob's, I still see the abovementioned as serious issues, alongside his vote record that doesn't look good.

I know it took me a second read yesterday - mostly because I was really vexed by the whole role-hint or role-slip that happened and that included debating how to test the validity of the claim or waiting to see reactions from civs or baddies and so on - but I understand now better what Lot was aiming for.

Technically, I'd still have him third on my list, with Rebecca and Jacob looking slightly worse, but since I spent an entire day finding who the suspects are for me right now, I would not have anything against voting Isaac either. I still wish I'd hear more from others on Rebecca.

Can we interpret Mordecai's lurking as a signal that he's been silenced? It feels like Cain Day 2 all over again, for some reason. Would it matter, for those who primarily want to lynch him nevertheless?

Oh, wow, sorry about slipping you in the notes on Rebecca. I think I was correcting typos before submitting the entire post and got you two mixed up for no reason. That is indeed Rebecca I'm referring to.

As for what I meant, it was that the only way I can see (or, better yet, anticipate) Rebecca defending her Day 6 vote post claim (i.e. that both Jeph and Uzz were up for sacrifice) is due to her belief, at that time, that Jeph was a Heathen. But if she's a Heathen and thus knew very well that Jeph isn't, she could have easily seeded such wrong information to the thread. Does it make more sense now? Here's the post, just in case.

For completion's sake, my reread of

Lot

which is just as sprawling and raw as Balaam's, because I apparently can't handle 200+ posts very well. And it didn't take me an hour, thank God, it took me two (granted, with a lot of going back into the thread for real-time posting).

Day 1: critical at first of Paul but reconsiders, also pinged by Ruth's meta-hunt (I think that makes it only two players who have pursued this). Picks up on Jeph's, debates it with him extensively and it'll ultimately be where his vote went at the end of the day. Suspected Uzziah but gave him BOTD for his only "genuine" post. Stances on Cain were that he's suspicious and Samson's lynch might be a save his way and on Samson, despite an early ping, that it was the easy lynch to pick, but that Samson also didn't make it better with his attitude.

I'm going to call his vote consistent with his content, even though Jeph is exactly the player for whom spreading votes on that Day instead of jumping on the wagons is a plausible thing (check Rebecca).

Day 2: included the famous rooting for/out analysis, impression on Job worsens, impression of Jeph slightly better, still believed Cain might be bad and a save took place Day 1, Uzziah is now the "lazy pick" (he calls it more a "truth" than any kind of defense towards Uzziah) and questions the wifom. Has a lot of rebuttals to give for this (to Job, Deborah, Bathsheba!). Ultimately votes Uzziah over Job (finds more value in Job's activity than Uzziah's lack of)

Not much I can get out of the vote tally, Cain lynch was already in full progress and Lot's vote for Uzziah was only the second. He didn't trust Cain at that point, but I don't see full sign of endorsing his lynch train either.

Day 3: can post only once, apparently; suspects Absalom for the majority of the lynches and night kills. Offers a sentence in support for Uzziah still being lynched and that he's still wary about , but it doesn't sound like much. Checks in thread in silence and decides my ping on Rachel was good enough to vote her way. Not really lamenting MM's death, but distancing himself from the train lynch that took place.

Sketchiest vote so far, especially in the change of choice towards Rachel. In theory his early vote could have built many paths for a mislynch, since it was 1-1-1 between Uzziah, Job and Rachel. Lazarus and Mary followed later.

Day 4: misses day and vote (imprisoned by Herod?), comes back and launches tirade at Absalom and Nicodemus for almost pushing Balaam into a lynch, for whom he suddenly vouches to the fullest
Day 5: mostly debates with Jeph over his vote for Balaam the other Day (triggered by Samuel) and votes for him. Final stance on Uzziah is that he'd be a Horsemen. General side-note to this: As with Balaam, I see roughly two civ explanations for Lot vouching for him, but if the flip will actually be other way around, it might narrow to a single explanation and "consequences will never be the same".

Well, that verdict on Uzziah certainly isn't absolving. His vote for Jeph was just the second and, again, Jeph as 2nd wagon formed very slowly, whilst Uzziah went down fast, but it's still a fertile ground for teammate distancing (at least one or two would make sense) and Lot's in company with a lot of suspicious folks for me (Rebecca, Isaac, Samuel, Jonah - in that order, actually). Don't think I suspect him more than the rest, but this is how it looks.

Now, around Day 5, I also did bring up the impression that Lot might have generated the "tunnel vision" angle that ultimately got Job lynched. Which he didn't dispute, but called it also irrelevant. Then again, some of the players who went with that angle (like Rachel) have proven civ already, so there's not much evidence towards a subtle push of Job.

Day 6: embraces full read-mode after first hit on Heathens; suspects Jacob, Isaac, then Ruth, Deborah + still pinged by Jeph. Brings up Mordecai, but he's not so much on his radar. Goes with Ruth, for the sake of analysis material from her votes and moves, depending on flip.

Not seeing his Day 6 vote as bad, because, once again, the "let me put you in danger of being lynched, Ruthy, we'll sort it out eventually" tactic seems like the worst the Heathens could have chosen that day.

Day 7: top suspects Jacob, Jeph, Deborah, Isaac, remotely Jonathan. Goes back to voting Jeph for what he calls a sprawling game. Mislynch.
Day 8 & 9: casts first vote of the Day for Lazarus both times, also having a different angle on the meaning of his votes (other hypothesis being that he could been afflicted), continues read-mode, his suspicions oscillate (trusts Jacob more based on the hint than the stats, impression of Issac worsens)

He fully contributes, but his votes have now landed early on Lazarus. I could do without the latter, simply by the way he's doing it, even if I understand if he is "compelled" to do something about Lazarus.

Lot wrote:

Belshazzar wrote:

Lot wrote:So at minimum, the logic is flawed in that Martha could have been Simon the Zealot. So could have Paul but I feel like Stephen might have felt Lazarus was worth pushing harder, given his close affinity with Paul.

I finally picked up on this possible loophole (guess I didn't read your reads lists too well and your conversation with the Host afterwards, either ), interesting. But Simon was activated on Night 1, so it can only be Martha. Small window.

Small window indeed, but it had to be a small window. Absalom started his approach to hinting at it too soon for it to be something that happened later anyway. And Martha was visible enough that her being activated is plausible. Lazarus being activated on day one much less so.

Absalom started his approach to hinting at what?

Well, we're in a peculiar civ/suss square ourselves, anyway. You suspect me, yet I find you the civviest of us four. Lot vouches for Balaam, but you are not sold on him and I have him in a murky area due to his stats, but find his own vouches genuine.

I also strongly feel, at this point, that all four of us have done reads and debates in vain, because the rest will just come and do lottery between our choices. Sorry to put it this way, but

Rebecca is fine, but Rahab is 2nd suspect? Strange stuff.

Based on my reads, I'd probably say:

1. Rebecca
2. Jacob - his hint notwithstanding
3. Isaac - his hint notheartwarming

but since the Jacob dillema is far from reaching a resolution, I'd probably put Mordecai on a 4th place. I'm very interested in cracking the Day 6 situation and both Rebecca and him can be read bad for pushing Rachel closer to Ruth. Rebecca with no goddamn reason whatsoever and Mordecai by doing his own different analysis and finding Rachel a potential schemer with Uzziah. But if he's bad, that can well be an intentional plant.

How does everyone feel about Rebecca? Is there a strong scenario for her to be a Heathen? I found it so, quite frankly.

I noticed him lurking as well (like, even right now! *le spooky* ). Besides, I didn't really touch upon this because I don't know what to make of it, but he was testy with me as well at one point, not just with Lot yesterday, thinking I shot down his arguments entirely or something.

Absalom wrote:Isaac's self vote is troubling. But to me it reads like a civvie who feels doomed.. He is convinced he will either get NKed or lynched. I can't see a baddie throwing in the towell like thta.

I am voting for Mordecai and giving Shazzie a hard for not finding him suspicious.

Not finding him suspicious at all? Nah. To put it that is like saying I've put him up there with Rahab, in the not finding suspicious clouds.

Lot wrote:So at minimum, the logic is flawed in that Martha could have been Simon the Zealot. So could have Paul but I feel like Stephen might have felt Lazarus was worth pushing harder, given his close affinity with Paul.

I finally picked up on this possible loophole (guess I didn't read your reads lists too well and your conversation with the Host afterwards, either ), interesting. But Simon was activated on Night 1, so it can only be Martha. Small window.

What did you mean by Stephen's close affinity with Paul?

I can't answer "what gives", I did my best re-reading all the players. Mordecai's read isn't really neutral from me either, but I've found slightly more incriminating reads than his and, given that you and Absalom have him as top suspect, I expected to find more. I've fully stated which votes read the worst to me (both on their own and how he followed them up afterwards) and they do deem him suspicious. If I gave the impression of giving him a pass, especially with the last sentence, that isn't quite so, I meant more that I want to discuss it further.

linki: I suppose, especially since he went with Job after all. But at that time, with Job accused of intense tunnel vision, it was generally a method to try to assess better what's really making him so focused.

You did, Lot, I just didn't pick it up in your posts - I focused on your reads in the same post where you said you'll vote for him.

I somehow missed the fact that Lot voted Lazarus again and Isaac self voted.

Pilate
Undeniably dubious gameplay at times (his self-aware meta, his jump on my Rachel case, his two-day pedal on her only to confess it was phoning and his throw of Absalom in the same boat as Uzziah and pedalling on it some more). But I'm starting to see the "unimpeachable" angle slightly better upon re-reading him: his gunning for Uzziah was very consistent. Otherwise, whilst not a man of many words, his reads were often intriguing and kinda solid. He did his part in lynching Uzziah on Day 5, meanwhile he missed Day 3, so we can't really say if he would have stuck with Rachel or stay consistent with voting Uzziah. If, by any stretch of the imagination, Absalom will eventually flip bad, then they did a fine job washing each others hands. Not the strongest candidate there is, methinks.

Rahab
Chose Uzziah over Samson Day 1, put in theory that some Heathens could have boarded Samson's lynch right after. Went with Cain Day 2, mislynch. Acknowledged going back and forth on Uzziah and decided to stick with lynching him - this makes her and Absalom's vote look civvie-like that day (alongside the late Job and Nicodemus) imo.

Day 4 a possible twitch vote for Lazarus' attitude, otherwise she would have had to choose between Balaam and Job - I'll keep in mind she found Job suspicious and Balaam less so, just in case Balaam's flip will count in the future, but it's nothing serious.

Didn't add much else on Uzziah Day 5, but it seems like she went along with the lynch and it doesn't contradict her earlier stances. Consistently suspicious of Pilate and Jacob since, voting for them accordingly until this day. Think it's up to her how she'll further develop her suspicions.

Generally aggressive and questioning on her own about various players and situations. I like. I think she's on the level. Nothing in her vote record stands out to me.

Rebecca
Day 1 focused on reading Paul's behaviour. Picked Jeph as a main suspicion and vote during the first two Days. Since Jeph wasn't exactly the most benign of suspects, it is vulnerable to interpretation that she may have not wanted any part in the main wagons. Nothing on Samson, no clear stance on Cain, nothing on Uzziah.

Day 3, suddenly drops even the slightest analytical reading and jumps on my case on Mary, effectively starting her lynch train. Ouch. No vote post whatsoever on voting Balaam Day 4. One post Day 5, going back to Jeph, early lynch vote for him (1-1 vs Uzziah). I feel the Jeph 2nd wagon was sort of slow to build that Day, so I don't have that much to read here, but it could still be a comfortable distancing vote.

Damning dismissal of Ruth bussing Uzziah, casts a Rachel vote for no reason, also says right after "Now 3 more there would be swell, k?". Is that 3 more for Rachel, to make it 5-4 vs. Ruth? Ayyy.

Defensive vote for Jeph Day 7. Defends what I just said about her Day 6 awful looking stance as misinterpreting and that in fact she saw "Ruth on Day 5 pushing for a choice between Jeph and Uzz", under the logic that both of them are bad and threatened to go down. Otherwise, it's a really bad angle and still doesn't connect well with suspecting and voting Rachel. She [Rahab] would only have her belief that Jeph is bad in her defense, but if she's actually Heathen, such a belief can clearly have been manufactured.

So yeah, it looks pretty bad. If Rebecca is Heathen, her vote record isn't even tough or out-of-the-box to interpret as such. (Sorry we didn't listen to you, Jeph)

Samuel
Day 1: early time spent defending himself in front of Paul, but also picked up Ruth's meta hunt as suspicious (which, turns out, wasn't a bad ping). His vote for Samson can be both payback and wagoning.

Upon return Day 4, his reasoning for voting Job as an anti-Absalom is a well-known mess of a reasoning. Hunts Day 5 Jeph and votes him as payback for contradicting himself in his reasonings as much as Samuel did.

Clinches Day 6 Ruth lynch with his vote. As you already know, I don't endorse the Ruth being bussed theory, so not much to say here. Mislynches Jeph and Jonathan the next two days.

Nothing about Uzziah the entire game. Nothing about Ruth between his Day 1 ping and Day 6 swift late vote.

I think we should overall keep him in mind. The vote record could be overall interpreted as bad - it's almost like Day 6 is the only thing that would take the heat off him a bit. But if I would actually revise that sequence of events, it could also be that Ruth voted Absalom, under the belief he is doomed by Lazarus, some of her teammates already spread the votes thin or voted for Rachel, then Balaam and I punished her move and she went "welp, save yourself Sammy" (the same could be true for Bathsheba, but obviously that's even more of a stretch).

Stephen
AWOL first three days, random-self-missed vote sequence, survives his house exploding. Stephen 2.0 afterwards? (He denies this later) Phoenix Stephen?

Hectic Day 4 activity, complete with banter and such, develops mostly a Job suspicion, sides with Rachel on it, doesn't like Jeph and Ruth for going against it. Mislynch. Not much on Uzziah, except that Job flipping bad could possibly exonerate him and that he doesn't truly believe in their feud curse. Keeps suspicions on Jeph and Ruth Day 5, then changes his mind on the former and votes Uzziah. His vote stands early in the tally. His Ruth vote is also early. Two votes for Jonathan, simply by siding with Absalom's case, the following Days.

The timing and the spot-on-ness of his votes for Uzziah and Ruth make it hard for him to seem a cruel teammate that influenced their fates early on. Ok, Uzziah may have been doomed and planned as such, but Ruth? Not really seeing it. Since I read Absalom fine for now, I don't have reasons to suspect they schemed lynching Jonathan for two days. I don't see any defending of Rebecca, in order for his Day 7 vote (which momentarily put Jonathan in front of Rebecca, 3-2), to be read as a save attempt (not to mention the Jeph lynch train didn't even start). He gets a pass from me, although I wish he'd return to his Day 4 form and write more content rather than picking up the opinion of others.

Jonah
The opposite of Esther's evolution, shall we say? I mean, what happened? He had a good activity in the beginning, with a bit of moxy and different perspectives on why some players' posts might be read as "scummy". His first votes were unconventional and almost standalone, after which the next ones (Job, Jeph, Jonathan) veer more towards wagoning.

Extreme civ cred theory? Intentional drop under the radar as to, maybe, not get NKd for being so outspoken. Or genuine demoralization, as he stated on Day 5.
Extreme bad tactic theory? Intentional fishing during the first days, only to let others become leaders and develop a more hidden, inactive profile.
(Total batshit paranoia theory? Isaac has told us long ago he's 2.0. It has been infered that Stephen and Esther might have clearly been replaced. The Host has announced no such changes throughout the game. Maybe there's a "switcheroo" that occured between low and active players, so that inactive players became more involved and other drop off the face of the earth?)
For either of the first two theories, Jonah's inactivity would still be way too much for him to have consistently tailored an intentional tactic, so idk.

Not the cleanest vote record either, often going spontaneously for his last suspicion (Mary, Rahab) and leaving others behind (Martha, Balaam, Deborah). Never took a stance on Uzziah (being unsure what to make of it), plus left an awfully jokey post in awe to Uzziah's troll abilities, but also came up with the "feud" theory between Job and Uzziah. That being said, he chose the case on Job over the one on Balaam, Day 4, at a time when the two were even. A flip on Balaam, at any point, could make Jonah look better or worse, in this regard.

I'm not reading that much into his Mary and Rahab votes being spreading, because they're so distant from serious nominations at that time. His Day 5 vote for Jeph (whilst throwing his hands in the air re: Uzziah) is so last-minute, it could be nothing. His Day 8 Jonathan vote is probably pure wagoning, he didn't even post about it.

Lazarus
Until a solid theory is formed on Lazarus actually having messed with us all this time and being bad, I'm going to keep considering him the best candidate for Simon there is. I'm still not seeing what Lot is suggesting (plus I wrote that the stats are pretty much against the idea that Simon is dead and the baddies are role claiming him), but I've been known to need to read his thoughts a second time, so I'm open to discussion.

I'm not going to deny that I don't "have an idea" about Lazarus' identity and given that, I'd usually expect him to be a great reader even if he doesn't sweat much to play, but given his read was Absalom, it unfortunately does not compute for me (see my read on Absalom). Also, when he's not vanilla or close in a game, he is usually bad at being subtle at using his power, which further strengthens my belief that he's Simon and that's that.

Other than Absalom (for whom all his votes until the Day 6 debacle were singular), he really hasn't done shit otherwise and I don't think it can't be interpreted much.

Lot
has...posted an awful lot. I apologise for this, but I want to save him for a bit later, just in case I'll need to spend as much time filtering his posts as I did with Balaam yesterday.

Malchus
Dead alive. Same feelings as regarding Bathsheba - any momentum to read or challenge his activity is sort of long gone. Deborah read him bad during her re-read Day 5, but that's about it (and honestly, she can still look a bit worse for going with a vote for him instead of voting "meta-man" Uzziah and joining that wagon). Always treated Uzziah as WIFOM and picked Cain as worse over Uzziah, but his Day 1 vote isn't part of an obvious anti-Uzziah possible wagon and his vote for Cain, Day 2, was already way inside the lynch train.

Meta read: the faintest memory of a inactive baddie that I have, from previous games, was that he was eventually replaced halfway through the game, either at the Host's or the Mafia's desire to not risk ending up dead and with all their hopes resting on someone not present. Is Malchus really our Inactive Baddie? Who the hell knows.

Mordecai
Day 1: scrutiny of Paul's actions, but also suspicious of Samson and ends up voting for him (first of in the ensuing lynch). Day 2, calls hunt for Uzziah both a cop out but also something he doesn't disagree with (just that it offers room for complacency). Nevertheless, argues significantly with Job instead over this. Come Day 3, he's already wary of Job tunneling, but as far as I notice, didn't take it further.

Two consecutive votes for Lazarus, for his own tunneling of Absalom. His Day 3 one the first of three, whilst Uzziah and Rachel (and soon Job) had already two votes; he never really touched upon these players. His Day 4 is amidst an intense Job vs. Balaam train, in which he again has no part in.
No serious content Day 5 expect his vote post for Uzziah, a late vote that solidifies his lynch. Upon being questioned by Jeph, states that he voted Uzziah in retaliation to Job's flip. His statement that Uzziah would have been a sure lynch (=highly likely lynch) every day raises some eyebrows and rightly so, because it was neither the case quite every single day (except for Day 3), nor did he state this before with conviction.

Day 6, he works on a "voting together" angle of reading the vote records, signaling Deborah, Malchus and Rachel. Votes Rachel of the three, but, conspicuously or not, his vote now stands as bringing Rachel at 3-4 versus Ruth.

Day 7, odd angle theory at whether Absalom would look intentionally civ given Ruth's vote for him. Also builds up his Balaam theory, but presents it only Day 8. Regarding this, some points either don't stand out for me as much as for him or Balaam sounded genuine in defending against them (for instance, #2 and #3, if anyone has followed their exchange), but interestingly enough, he does connect him with Ruth in the timing of the votes, just like Lot noticed.

Hmm, I was sort of expecting to have a stronger read on him. The votes that could be accounted as the worst would be (in order) Day 6 (possible push for Rachel to save Ruth), Day 1 (Samson train, whilst his teammates jumped on Cain's instead) and maybe Day 3. I can't lock his Day 5 vote as bad, but if he is a Heathen, then the deed was long done on sacrificing Uzziah.

From the votes themselves, turning Ruth's lynch into that angle to suspect Absalom seems to me to go against the very nature of Ruth's intent when voting for Absalom (him to die instead of her), so maybe it was an intentionally forced perspective offered to the thread? Is this what others are picking up on as well? Besides that, his Day 3 Lazarus pick and his statement that Uzziah was always highly lyncheable don't match up in attitude, especially for the day that Uzziah could have been lynched. But again, I was hoping for a stronger bad read of him than such circumstantial ideas. I'm open to keeping him in check.

Absalom wrote:

Belshazzar wrote:Maybe just curious that his case on Balaam vanished after his talk with Lot on Night 4, but it's nothing to account him for at this point.

Despite Lot's vouching, I am still not fully sold on Balaam. What do you make of the vote timing analysis I posted with him and Ruth? Coincidence?

I have to admit, I find it very troubling.

That being said, I think Mordecai is my top suspect today based on all the analysis that has been done.

I can sort of acknowledge Balaam as a late end of day voter (this referring specifically to the deadline proximity, because sometimes he still shows up early in the tally), although sometimes his vote posts didn't have the best presentation: "let's cement this for Mary", "screw it, Jeph". If he's civ, then it's mostly coincidental, because Ruth in exchange did probably often delay her vote. If they're teammates, there's a slight chance the in-thread outspoken Balaam is a in-BTSC strategist, assessing the situation closely before finally voting.

Day 1 I don't buy much, because there's actual space between them and, as I've said, it'd be pretty mad for 3 out of 5 (at least) Heathens to have piled on Cain.

Day 3 awkward indeed. Ruth was proven guilty of deliberately waiting to push Mary to 6 when Uzziah received a fourth. Whether Balaam literally proceeded the do the same or simply responded to the wagon, I don't know. I'd put it down as pingy. Maybe he can re-read the sequence of events from that Day and tell us what made him wait so much / decide so hard.

Day 4 can be interpreted the same way. Balaam maybe pressured by being 2nd wagon, but Ruth certainly not making it easy by deciding just a few minutes later.

Day 6 I really don't buy, because Ruth voting Absalom, in acknowledgment that it could save her skin, clearly triggered Balaam to do something about it.