The Syndicate

I tried the best I could. Sorry civs.

My final answer is Hotel for mafia. This guy does fuck all for the entire LyLo, returns to the thread and basically concedes, and now he's probably going to win.

Sometimes this game is truly infuriating.

I guess this isn't surprising. I am always terrified of the idea of making it to a final LyLo as a civilian because I am by default a tinfoil magnet just for being me. This is the second time this shit has happened to me this year.

Congratulations, mafia.

Absolute crickets. Unbelievable.

I'm going to tell you right now. I can forgive people for making the wrong choice. That's just how the game works.

I can't forgive people leaving the thread behind with 20 minutes to spare when I am still here.

I am absolutely gutted if I am the only one in this thread still.

Please fucking listen to me

Golf wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:43 pm Here's the thing, I know him better. And I don't 100% believe he is a civ, but I don't believe you are either. And I know him better, I have a much harder time thinking this is him. And I have a really hard time hearing his posts as anything other than sincere. If he has fooled me, well... I guess he's deserved it, but I don't think he is. I think it's pretty clear to you both I am a civ. And the fact you are playing to both of us tells me you are hedging your bets. I'm voting Bravo.

I am not hedging my bets, I am trying to get it right in a really nerve-wracking freaking phase. It's not me. I don't know what RL shit Hotel has had to deal with, but that doesn't change the posts they already made in this phase. They still have all the same problems I have already discussed, and it's going to be an absolute joke if we lose the game to him after all this. I swear to god.

Stay here and talk. There is time to get this right. Don't bail on the thread now.

For fuck's sake. I'M NOT MAFIA.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:35 pm

I feel myself changing my mind again. FUUUUUUCK! Hotel seems pretty damn sincere.

It's not me! If it's not you then you then please keep a level head, because you're in the right place. I have done everything in my power to show that I'm a civilian. There's nothing else I can say.

What is making you reconsider on Hotel now?

Hotel wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:30 pm Well, this is fucked. I know I’ve done this endgame a disservice; it hasn’t been because I’m bad but due to RL shit.

Guess we’ve lost the game. Well played, baddie.

If it's not you then don't quit. Just give me something to work with. Tell me why Golf is bad. Tell me what you think is your best civilian contribution. Something. I'm listening.

Hotel, if it isn't you then you need to make a case for yourself ASAP. I'm here through the finish and still listening. I hate the way you've handled this phase, but there are still a couple of hours. Show me the goods.

If nothing else, your willingness to continue considering and deliberating is evidence in your favor Golf. LyLo is really freaking hard, and under the circumstances I feel as good as I reasonably could now. The one player alive who isn't showing energy and emotion under the pressure of making this decision is now the one with votes. I don't see myself moving.

If you're mafia Golf then you've played a very strong game. That holds true either way really.

Or maybe I'll sit here and pick my ass by myself until we lose.

Please get in here and talk with me soon. I finally have a pretty open day to be around here.

Hotel wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:22 am

Bravo wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:14 am I still want this addressed ASAP, Hotel. That is the most concerning aspect of your recent post history to me.

It's reconcilable pretty easily IMO. I realized I hadn't considered you to be bad pretty much all game, which was a mistake, so in the back of my mind I started thinking about ways in which you could be the baddie. Then I officially started catching up on the thread, and when I got to your post, it sort of came together and I genuinely began to tinfoil on you, though I admittedly played it up a bit in terms of the intensity to gauge exactly how you and Alpha would respond.

This answer rings hollow. Translation:

"I was kind of serious, but it was largely a test for Bravo and Alpha."

This player wanted to lynch me last phase and actually tried to do it. There's no "test". That's bullshit.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:19 pm Dammit Alpha, vote Bravo with me. It has to be him.

Hotel wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:13 am Well, that was a weird kill target. RIP Alpha, you rocked this game and we'll avenge your death.

Generic fake promise for vengeance. I remember dunya saying this right after she killed me long ago. Were it only that I could provide a link, but the game is deleted. It's also break the sock reveal rule.

Hotel wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:19 am

Bravo wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:03 am I'm the doctor. This game has been infuriating, because I have repeatedly picked the right names to protect at the wrong times, and the mafia have done well to be hard to predict. These were my targets:

Night 1 - Alpha
Night 2 - Charlie
Night 3 - Alpha
Night 4 - Golf

I realize that there's no hard evidence for this now, but it's the truth. I'm putting it all out here to maximize the information we have. I can explain every protection target if needed.

LOL, well, this made my decision for me. You're clearly lying.

Nope.

This is a celebration of convenience, not of a read being solified. I'm not lying, so I can't be "clearly lying", so take your adverbs to the grave with you m-f-er.

Hotel wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:29 am Honestly both of you sound genuine AF and otherwise I'd be pretty torn right now, but I'm pretty sure it's Bravo based on the doctor claim, so yeah.

Fake. Hotel should be torn and knows it, and is using my claim to relieve themself of the pressure of actually looking like they have a choice to make.

Hotel wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:31 am The only thing I really don't understand is why a mafia Bravo would leave me alive in this situation when I was just suspecting him last phase.

Fake. Golf's suspicions on this front at least make logical sense, and I understand them wrong as they may be. Hotel's last rainbow thing the previous day featured me at the top and Golf at the bottom:


Hotel is saying things (barely) and doing nothing. Why should he when the lynch has been planted on my face for 97% of the phase so far?

There's also the fact that in the phase with the worst pressure, Golf has looked a lot more genuine in their attempts to sort this out even considering they've come to the wrong conclusion.

Now, among the two of you, I presently think Hotel is the worse look and a big reason why is their handling of this LyLo phase. They have spent nearly no time in this thread, and they gave zero effort in trying to get a read on Golf. They threw my claim in the garbage immediately and used it as an excuse to drop a vote on me and fuck off indefinitely.

That is not a player who is struggling to handle the paranoia and stress of LyLo, something I have seen in Golf who is struggling to make a final choice. That is the behavior of a player getting their way. And this leads me to a point for [mention]Golf[/mention]: you've been concerned that the Alpha kill makes no sense for Hotel because it would be the "hard route" to victory.

Please assess the state of this phase right now. On a scale of 1-5, how hard has this been for Hotel? Give me a 1.

It might not make the most immediate intuitive sense to you, but it's the reality. If Hotel is mafia then they made a really good kill selection and deserve to be commended for it, because it has worked perfectly to this point.

If Golf is mafia, then good game because I doubt I'm lynching you at this point.

I'm going to make sure I am crystal clear about that Juliet point, because it should really speak volumes:

My top suspects were Foxtrot and Juliet.

If I am mafia and Juliet is my teammate, then that means I deliberately killed suspect #1 (Foxtrot), leaving only my own teammate (a lynch of whom would prove ineffective as a credit grab given the lack of a flip) as the obvious odds-on lynch instead.

There is no rationale for that strategy. It is stupid.

First thing today I am going to state a full, thorough case in my own defense. These points must be taken or left since I am the one providing them, but I have to try. If I am not taken seriously then the game is lost.

Point 1 in my defense: effort level

While baddies are capable of giving a strong effort, one has to consider the context of the game. This thing has been a pretty slow mover compared to other heists and games of comparable size, still sitting at less than 700 posts at end game. A slow and analytically deprived game thread is the most basic advantage that a mafia team can ever enjoy, and when I am mafia the last thing I care to do is change that dynamic. In this game I have really tried to do that, and the best thing going for Alpha was that they did the same thing. I have engaged conversations with every player, or at least attempted to, and I've done that despite time restrictions during a holiday season keeping me away from my laptop longer than usual.

Point 2 in my defense: methods

This game comes stock with mechanics that inherently favor the mafia team. The ratios are unfavorable in an eleven player game given the size of the mafia team. Without flips it's made even worse, as the primary analytic tool that civilians tend to work with is unavailable. For this reason I can understand why some players were disheartened earlier in the game and felt that the civs' chances weren't very good. I felt that way myself, and yet I have still done everything in my power to alleviate the disadvantage. I have analyzed the game both deterministically and probabilistically for every possible combination of mafia members there is. I have tried to fill the role of leadership to keep the civilians engaged and motivated. I have badly wanted to overcome the difficulties of this setup and find a way to win, because it would really be an awesome achievement. My post history should bear that out.

I acknowledge that there is some selfishness in it. I am a player who is proud of their civilian game and has earned some reputation for it. It's a reputation that I seek to live up to and to strengthen, and winning this game would mean a lot. I want that stupid best civilian socky award. I want that stupid heist MVP award. I want that glory. And I have played this game with those pursuits close to heart. To know that we are so close to see this through and yet still on course to lose the game is really disappointing right now.

Point 3 in my defense: Echo and the India kill

Echo's role claim of the oracle was bizarre, and I treated it that way. Indeed, the two players who were most interrogative in Echo's direction for that maneuver were India and I, the former having likely been the oracle himself. Indeed, it was apparent to me that, like Alpha said at one point I believe, if Echo wasn't really the oracle then the most likely alternative would be India (the guy most severely protesting the claim). If I'm mafia and teamed with Echo, I don't kill the guy most likely to be the oracle who is sure to identify the other guy who claimed oracle. That's nonsense. That it actually happened suggests to me that the bad guys were not paying adequate attention to the details. Nobody has been paying closer attention to the details in this game than I was.

Moreover, when Echo was revealed as the disguiser and there was an opportunity in the thread to consider the possibility that it was India instead and the oracle/disguiser mechanics were confusing the two, I did not stand for that:

Bravo wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:17 pm Poll doesn't work on my phone. Voting Echo whenever it lets me.

This provides a great solving opportunity. Echo is the disguiser and his teammates may be identifiable in his posts (including or not including Kilo) It'll be muddier than usual perhaps given the no flip dynamic. I'll take a look a bit later.

Bravo wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:37 pm I'm acting under the assumption that India was the oracle and exposed Echo as the disguiser. It might not be totally kosher, but it's in the thread: India's one dead post is looks like a confirmation to me.

And considering India's dead post, I think it's a good thing I didn't.

Point 4 in my defense: Juliet

For this one there are a couple of premises to consider:

1 - Juliets was bad.
2 - In a game with no flips, distancing and bussing are not very useful to a mafia team.

If you accept those premises, and I do, then you ought to be led to a sound inductive conclusion:

Bravo is not bad.

As soon as Echo was revealed as the disguiser, I began investigating the connections. Recall the Juliet interactive read. The two players that I felt were most connected to Echo were Juliet and Foxtrot. Numerous other players also voiced suspicion of Juliet, some citing the connections I drew. It is clear to me that I played a prominent role in getting Juliet lynched. Then the following night, Foxtrot was killed. So consider:

I had two primary suspects. One of them was killed. The other was Juliet, who was promptly lynched. Why the bloody fuck would I do that to my teammate in a game with no flips?. It makes zero sense. There is no rationale for that. To assert that I am mafia now requires that I did that, unless you're going to tell me that Juliet was a civilian who literally just fucked off at the first sign of trouble. There is legitimate tinfoil and there is nonsense. This represents the latter.

There’s not much else I can say in my defense. I can’t be here much tonight while family visits. I’m going to make the best effort I can tomorrow to turn this around. As it stands the one lynch I know lose the civilians the game is the one shown in the poll right now.

I hope you’re both available tomorrow to talk with me.

Golf wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:55 pm Why would you have protected me last night?

The player I would have most liked to protect was myself, but sprityo declared that not allowed. I thought Hotel was the least likely kill target overall and didn't consider protecting him much. I looked over each of the potential kills and tried to determine who'd be most likely to deliver each one, and determined that if Alpha is mafia his most likely target would be you (leaving himself at LyLo with Hotel and I, which would look like a favorable arrangement). Given that Alpha would be a difficult lynch, I thought getting that insight from protecting you while also salvaging your voice and vote would be very valuable if that eventuality came to pass. Combine this with the fact that the mafia had been hard to predict in their kills (i.e. Foxtrot), and I decided to take the risk. I probably overthought the decision and it didn't work.

Golf wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:56 pm And if you protected me last night, why straight out of the gate was your initial vote on me?

Entering this day my first question for myself was "why am I still alive?", and then the first thing I saw in this thread was you turning on me after a four minute differential in the time-stamps between your two posts. You changed your mind so quickly and in your immediate incursion into LyLo that it just looked like I'd found my answer. "I'm still alive because Golf wanted to do that."

Frankly I still find that suspicious. I find Hotel suspicious. I don't trust either of you at all and this is a very difficult scenario, especially when I am the one on course to be lynched instead of either of you. Extremely frustrating.

I'm not fucking mafia. In a setup with mechanics built against all typical civilian hunting methods, I have tried everything I can think of to alleviate that disadvantage and to give us a chance. We have a chance now. If I get mislynched at endgame it will be a goddamned travesty and I refuse to let that happen if I can help it. State all your grievances, scream them in my face, and I will answer. One of you is a civilian and the other one is not. Regardless of where my vote is right now, if you're the good one then please listen to me.

[mention]Golf[/mention] I'm having trouble finding Juliet's clarification that it was a play on "Dr. Dre". Can you show me?

Golf wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:40 amJuliet then explained the Dr. J thing was a play on Dr. Dre. I don't do rap, I didn't catch it. And she denied being Wilgy, so clearly she wasn't trying to look like Wilgy. Soooo... I dropped that.

This portion of the exchange I don't recall, so I'll have to go back and look. It sounds to me like the most important portion of the dialogue, because the "Dr. J" thing does lend more of a reason for you to attribute Wilgy to the rapping than just "goofball".

Moreover Hotel, you just put 5 posts in a LyLo phase and made zero effort to investigate one of the other two players (the one you voted alongside). That's now how a paranoid civilian behaves at end game.

Golf wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:26 am I... am super concerned now.

I don't disagree with any of your points. But you are wrong in coming to the conclusion it is me.

Let's assume you and I are both civ, why would Hotel kill Alpha instead of you? Can you think through that scenario please and give me your thoughts?

In a vacuum, I do think the "best" kill for Hotel was me. What's important though in this dynamic is Hotel's perspective of the game, not mine. Let's consider:

- It was not clear to me that you suspected Alpha considerably more than Hotel. You hated Hotel's attack on me in the last day phase and you tinfoiled (you called it that) on Alpha. If Hotel doesn't think your suspicion of Alpha is considerably greater than your suspicion of him, then he doesn't have the incentive you're attributing to killing me and leaving himself with just you and Alpha at LyLo.

- Everyone suspected Hotel to some degree last day phase. He said as much himself. A bad Hotel is going to feel cornered in that situation, and any kill option is going to leave him in a LyLo with people who suspect him. It's times like those where the only way out of the hole is WIFOM. By leaving you alive with me, he opens the door for you to ask the obvious question which you instantly asked: why am I here with Bravo?

- I don't know how you feel about this, but it's something I want you to consider: imagine I'd been killed, and you'd been stuck in a LyLo with Alpha and Hotel instead. Considering your own reads and not how they may have been interpreted by others, do you suspect that scenario is very different from this one? You have a suspect (Alpha) who shouldn't logically want you alive and someone you trust more than Alpha (Hotel) alive too. The same problem exists in this situation: "why would Alpha keep me alive with someone who I trust more?". Hotel as the mafioso is left with this problem in every situation. If he kills you instead, then it's Alpha asking why Hotel would kill you and leave the two high posters together. This is how WIFOM generates tinfoil in an endgame. It's a brilliant play if it's what Hotel did. Right now, that's my prevailing theory.

I mean shit, if I'm mafia and I want to fake claim doctor at end game, I skip my kill and pretend I saved someone. In this game I probably wouldn't even do that, because there are no flips and I wouldn't know whether the real doctor is even dead.

I don't expect anyone to just take my word for it that I'm the doctor at this point in the game. I do expect however that sincere doubts would be expressed in the form of some kind of actual critical examination, questions asked, or something.

Hotel wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:19 am

Bravo wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:03 am I'm the doctor. This game has been infuriating, because I have repeatedly picked the right names to protect at the wrong times, and the mafia have done well to be hard to predict. These were my targets:

Night 1 - Alpha
Night 2 - Charlie
Night 3 - Alpha
Night 4 - Golf

I realize that there's no hard evidence for this now, but it's the truth. I'm putting it all out here to maximize the information we have. I can explain every protection target if needed.

LOL, well, this made my decision for me. You're clearly lying.

No, absolutely not.

You don't just discard a claim, park your vote, and fuck off at LyLo. Golf and I had voted for each other, leaving you in what should be a very difficult position if you're a civilian: choosing correctly between two arguing sides. You've used my claim as an excuse to relieve yourself of the duty of even faking that difficulty, literally to "make your decision for you". That is gross, and it is more gross than anything Golf said.

Voting Hotel.

Golf, if you are a civilian I would urge you to please keep a level head, as best as you can, and talk through everything with me. It's not me, and I have put a lot into this thing to try to figure it all out. Getting a civ win in this game would feel like one of my better achievements as a player considering the challenge of having no flips and the slow pace to boot, and my efforts in this thread should bear out my desire to see that happen.

I am always listening and my decision is not final.

Returning to the Juliet/Hotel pairing examination I did earlier in the game, I want to revisit a couple of points based on the assumption that Juliet was bad.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:03 pm

Juliet wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:58 pm

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:43 pm Okay, voting Echo because why not. Need to finish catching up and then hopefully can provide some reads. This has been a tough setup to get my mind around.

What part are you having trouble getting your mind around?

The disguiser role is still somewhat confusing to me, but I'm taking your all's word for it and rolling with it. The lack of flips is very bizarre and I have no idea what to do with it. And maybe it's the sockpuppets too, but I've just been having trouble understanding pretty much anything so far.

This exchange is entirely neutral, and serves more to allow both Hotel and Juliet to appear involved than to put either of them under actual pressure. This is the easiest sort of communication mafia teammates can have in a game thread, and it's not a great look.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:14 pm A rainbow:

Alpha
Bravo
Charlie

Golf

Delta
Juliet

Foxtrot

Echo

This rainbow was agreeable from a perspective of POE, but the Juliet placement is still dubious. Yellow neutrality does not move me, particularly when Juliet (a player who had put at least some content into the game and was a hot topic of discussion) is right there next to Delta (a player who did close to nothing and to that point was not often discussed).

This thing continues to bug me about Golf:

Golf wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:18 pm I'm also concerned about the fact that Juliet is trying to imply they are Dr. Wilgy. Why? If it is Wilgyi would be inclined to think he is good, but if it is not actually Wilgy, I am inclined to think they are trying to appear as Wilgy to look more benign.

Echo wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:45 am What was that crap about Juliet being Wilgy, and therefore town?

Golf wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:39 pm Ok, I read over the last four pages to make sure I understood everything that occurred since Echo's death.

Bravo you commented on Echo's post about this crap about Juliet being Wilgy. It was me that posted, but it was not what I actually said. What I had originally said was that Juliet's posts in rap gave my the impression of Juliet possibly being Wilgy. And if it was true it would make me inclined to see Juliet as more town, because the behavior in my mind was more in line with how a town Wilgy would act. But if it were not Wilgy it would make me feel like someone was trying to look like a town leaning Wilgy. Juliet came in and clarified some of what made me think all this and it is no longer relevant. I've dismissed that line of thought as a result.

So it was me he was talking about. I assume he didn't say anything about me specifically because he didn't remember who said it. However, that would make me feel like they may have discussed it in BTSC. Otherwise he would have commented on it when he first read it, if it stood out to him. Which makes me wonder why that might be the case.

Golf wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:41 pm I doubt I will be the one to die tonight, because I haven't done any hunting in the last cycle at all so I'm not a threat and I have drawn some attention. But if I do die, I think I would also say, lynch Juliet. I'm thinking the reason it might have come up in BTSC was because it was about one of them.

These theories look like TMI. The Juliet-is-or-isn't-Wilgy thing is already dubious, because the only shtick happening was rap and I don't see why that is supposed to be Wilgyesque apart from "person being goofy". Then Golf brought up BTSC, suggesting Echo's yell into the clouds up there might have come from a discussion behind the scenes. I don't struggle to believe that Golf was right about that, and that they got an inkling of that truth from their own place in that BTSC.

I've voted Golf. My vote is not final. I'm using this entire phase to work as much as time allows.

The purpose of that exercise was to determine not only how much sense an Alpha kill makes for each of you, but also how much sense the other options would have made by comparison. Given that, judging the kill at face value, I think Golf as the last baddie makes more sense. Both of you yell at me if you disagree with points I've made.

If Golf is mafia, the kill options were:

Alpha
Bravo
Hotel

- Golf kills Alpha, leaving Bravo and Hotel alive. Golf knows I suspect Hotel and might pursue that angle, and has a dual option to either pocket Bravo (ruined by my questioning in the night phase) or turn on me after keeping me alive, playing for support from Hotel who was my biggest critic last day phase. Plausible scenario, albeit challenging

- Golf kills Bravo, leaving Hotel and Alpha. Hotel alone named Golf a leading suspect toward the end of the last day, and Alpha has been a loose cannon suspecting both of them (as a pairing mostly but also individually) and is hard to predict. Plausible scenario, more challenging than previous

- Golf kills Hotel, leaving Alpha and Bravo. Alpha and I have mostly trusted each other the whole game, and turning us against each other despite reservations about Golf would be very difficult. Most challenging scenario

If Hotel is mafia, the kill options were:

Alpha
Bravo
Golf

- Hotel kills Alpha, leaving Golf and Bravo. Hotel would likely not view Golf as an ally in this scenario given Golf's stated civilian reads on me, and thus would more likely be angling for my support against Golf, who I'd connected with Juliet. Since everyone suspected Hotel in some capacity yesterday, this isn't necessarily unbelievable. Plausible scenario, strikes me as more challenging than Golf killing Alpha scenario

- Hotel kills Bravo, leaving Alpha and Golf. In this scenario Hotel would likely be relying upon Alpha's paranoia about each of the two to serve him, hoping that he'd be able to stand taller than Golf in a war of uncertainty at Alpha's expense. Golf's reads also present the possibility of turning on Alpha. Plausible scenario, I think less difficult than previous

- Hotel kills Golf, leaving Alpha and Bravo. Hotel would be attempting to employ WIFOM to work out of a deep hole in a last gasp type play. The window may seem open given Alpha's recent paranoia and slacking trust for me and the tinfoil I'd attract by default. Plausible but quite challenging scenario

I still want this addressed ASAP, Hotel. That is the most concerning aspect of your recent post history to me.

My initial perspective is that I hate Golf spending about four minutes deciding their mind is changed after "deliberating" over Hotel and turning on me. That opens the door for Hotel to return to the tinfoil that they'd expressed against me a day ago and help get me offed in a LyLo phase. It's especially troubling given that my activity has had to drop lately given my being busy for the holidays and I am less able to defend myself than I was earlier in the game.

Golf wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:52 am No I have changed my mind. Bravo. It must be Bravo. I would have bet my life it was Alpha after the game didn't end. The only way Hotel would have kept me alive was if he killed Bravo. He could have easily cruised to victory if he had killed Bravo.

I don't think this conclusion fits the progression of this game thread. Hotel kills me and is left with you and Alpha. You expressed suspicion of Alpha and Hotel as recently as the most recent day, so there's no "cruising" to be had there. I don't like that you're instantly discounting this possibility.

Golf wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:52 amBut Bravo could have thought since I was so certain he was civ, to kill Alpha he could convince me of it being Hotel. This was a mistake, though. He should have killed either me or Hotel.

I'm voting Bravo, but I am certainly open to hearing things from both of you.

I asked you recently why you had those strong civilian reads on me and you did not answer me. They were unexplained and stuck into posts almost for the sake of it, and now you're here reversing that read at the very start of a LyLo phase with the other living player being the same guy that hounded my ass just one phase ago. The opportunism is visible.

I'm the doctor. This game has been infuriating, because I have repeatedly picked the right names to protect at the wrong times, and the mafia have done well to be hard to predict. These were my targets:

Night 1 - Alpha
Night 2 - Charlie
Night 3 - Alpha
Night 4 - Golf

I realize that there's no hard evidence for this now, but it's the truth. I'm putting it all out here to maximize the information we have. I can explain every protection target if needed.

Alpha wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:27 pm I knew that in the case where we had a solo mafia, moving into day 5 with 2 active civs alive would have been more ideal but the fact that the players pushing that idea the hardest were the ones I thought were the most likely to be linked by mafia motive made me really uncomfortable with that.

I also pushed for a Delta lynch at least in part given the need for active civilians in an end game phase against a solo baddie. This didn't seem to budge you from your Hotel/Golf theory or your desire to vote in accordance with that theory. You came around in the very end, but only when it had become apparent that Delta was getting lynched regardless.

What drove you to change your mind?

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 4:05 am My running theory rn is that G/H are W/W. I want to hear Bravo's thoughts on the pairing in light of Golf's recent posts, but as of now I think that either one of them is our best bet.

Alpha, you asked for my thoughts on the Hotel/Golf pairing here while you were still strongly considering it as the driver of your vote. When I made my brief appearance earlier on Christmas Eve I answered with my thoughts on the pairing. I expressed a couple hangups: that my prior examination of their pairing required some WIFOM to look bad (and that I felt it was more indicative of a non-teammate relationship), and that their pairing would require that Juliet was good (assuming a bad Echo).

I don't believe you spoke about this prior to asking me to aid you in your crusade:

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:18 pm Hey Bravo buddy I'm pretty sure the mafia is Golf and maybe/probably Hotel. Do you want to coordinate this shit and vote for one of them?

This concerns me given the likelihood you previously attributed to Juliet having been bad.

I realize that you had stated your intent to handle the phase cautiously, under the assumption that two mafia members remained alive. That is a bit different however from actively pursuing a specific theory of a living pairing (Golf/Hotel) which would have to stand against the conceptualization of the game you had previously adopted (Juliet and Echo = bad).

When you were pushing for a lynch of either Golf or Hotel, did you change your mind about Juliet? Where did the matter of Juliet play into your theory about Hotel and Golf? It isn't clear that you incorporated this portion of the game concept into your crusade despite my having raised the point after you called for my thoughts on your theory.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:50 pm

Bravo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:47 pm

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:45 pm Look, someone had to throw some heat your way for something. I'm trying.

I'm listening. Tell me where your head is at here.

I'm not sure I even believe any of it; I just thought you have hardly gotten any heat all game and I had to come up with some explanation for your behavior if you are indeed the bad one.

Hotel, this post implies that the suspicion you threw at me last phase was for the sake of pressure given that I have not been placed under the microscope as much in this game. That is fine in principle, but I struggle to reconcile that notion with this post:

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:19 pm Dammit Alpha, vote Bravo with me. It has to be him.

This came before I had had the opportunity to get into the thread and answer to your accusations, and it looks to me like an attempt to generate my lynch. Pointedly seeking votes on me is not the same thing as making me answer to accusations. The former represents active lynching effort and the latter represents issuing a challenge for the sake of thoroughness.

How would you reconcile this?

Golf wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 12:53 am The only way that voting Delta would be the end of the gave is if there are two mafia still living and Delta isn't one of them. And I know I'm civ. I believe strongly that Bravo is civ and to a lesser extent Hotel. Until you started pushing this plan to vote someone other than Delta, I would have trusted you more than Hotel but you leap frogged past him. I am of the belief that either Delta is a lone baddie, Delta is a baddie with an active teammate, or Delta is civ and there is one living active baddie. I think it is unlikely there are two baddies and neither one is Delta. If that is the case we are screwed, because someone has fooled me extremely well and frankly they would deserve a win. I don't think it's the case though. You are trying too hard to push us a certain direction. Either Delta is a lone baddie and you are tinfoiling, which to be clear is my first line of thought, or you or to a lesser extent possibly Hotel are Delta's teammate.

Golf wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:28 am I haven't said it was dependent at all. In fact I have said repeatedly that my first line of thought (because I want to trust you here, I really do) is that Delta is the last baddie. But I find the fact you are pushing a lynch of an unknown active over an unknown inactive. The risk in the first is one scenario, whereas the risk in the second is like two or three times as much, just going by how many scenarios lead to end game for us if we lynch anyone other than him. That is what makes me suspicious of you. I know my role, I know that I'm not bad. I think it's highly unlikely Bravo is bad. I used to think that if you too until your recent push. I don't think Hotel is bad but I'm not 100% confident in that. But I highly doubt he's on a team with you so I am left with Delta being the absolute right choice. He's either lone baddie or he has a deep wolf teammate. Before today I would have said Hotel, your actions this day phase make me really question you now though.

Golf wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:23 pm My current thoughts:

I didn't like the way Hotel went hard after Bravo, it felt like scum trying to cast as much shade around as possible. Franky it made me pause, and in combination with feeling like for a while there Alpha may have actually been just a tinfoil townie it kind of made me feel way more wary of him. But now Alpha is trending back towards this let's lynch Golf or Hotel thing. Which I really hate because lynching any civ other than Delta will likely make this game a civ loss. There is a chance Hotel is bad, but I am not bad. Lynching me will net the civs a loss.

I am assuming your focus on a pair of active baddies is the caution you have been discussing, Alpha. However, I am still of the opinion that if there are two living baddies (which is absolutely possible) it is most likely that Delta is one of them.

I just cannot in anyway imagine Bravo being bad, and from the way you and Hotel have behaved I don't see you as teammates either. Your only risk here is basically me and Hotel but I am not bad. And again, if you look at all the possibilities the greatest risk is in leaving Delta alive. There is only one circumstance in which lynching Delta ends the game and I am 100% confident it's not the case.

I'm clearly not moving my vote.

As for tomorrow, if Delta's lynch doesn't end the game I am looking equally at Hotel or Alpha right now. This is based totally upon today's actions/conversations.

Golf, you have voiced some strongly worded civilian reads on me in recent memory. It isn't clear why you feel what way. Please tell me what has brought you to this conclusion.

Damn. It would have been lovely to be finished with this for Christmas.

At least the game apparently isn't lost. So Delta was either a civilian with one baddie alive or teamed with a living baddie. The lynch will be firmly in the hands of active civilians after the night and the game can be won. It's a relief to have a longer night, and I am not going to be around much if at all on Christmas day. Everyone is a suspect and I will go over the whole thread again when time permits before this night is over and see where I end up. I encourage everyone to do the same.

For now, merry Christmas folks!

Let's hope that Christmas extension won't be necessary.

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:55 pm I really just want today to end well. Maybe I'm only seeing Hotel and Golf as a team cus it's the worst case scenario and I'm afraid of it. If those two (or actually either of them +Bravo) are the mafia then they've pretty much already won. So maybe the correct move now really is to hope we're dealing with a lone wolf and make things harder for that player on day 5?

If there's one mafia left and it's not Delta, who is it?