The Syndicate

Ok, just did a quick catch-up and had no idea where the Red Room was, but found it.

MP - we are allowed to read it but not post in the red room?

Could some who played twins peaks explain the red room and how it worked?

Juliet's, BF, goose, and Elo definitely people I wold like reexamine.

I also wondered about Rumps. Was he mentioned in the red room post? Seems like every baddie we thought was alive was discussed except him, so I may go back and check.

Definitely anticipating some deadie shenanigans. Given the mount of them as indies and baddies, not sure what that will mean.

Voted Illinois.

All I remember was us going to Wisconsin and that being a fail in the game (was it really or did the hosts just mess with us?)

Hedgeowl wrote:
timmer wrote:I think one of these
is rump: faraday, hedgeowl,
Mongoose, juliets.
I didn't actually read your analysis post because you said to ignore it. Should I go back and address any points?

I am curious what Lizzy thinks of DH now given the Vomps reveal as Jack.

I have been reading through player list and thinking that many people are flying under the radar so to speak. I really can't decide if we are a bunch of civs debating regularly with hiding baddies or more baddies in plain sight. Probably a mix really. Here's a brief rundown of my current thoughts.

FH - was killed by piranha plant, so doubt she's a VG villain.
SVS - killed by manipulators, so doubt she is on this team. She wasn't

People I have no read on are Devin, BWT, Booms, SD and Timmer.

People I have a slight worry over are: Elo, BF, DF, Mongoose, and Juliets.

People I feel sort of ok about are: SVS, FH, Nev, DH, BDH

People I feel pretty good about: Lizzy, Bea,

People I do not feel good about: Llama Indy not baddie.

Of the two lists of no read and slight worry I feel that I need to spend some time rereading those people.

Linki wasn't Timmer earlier analysis about Rump? I assume its from that but would need to find the post.

Updated list:

People I have no read on are Devin, BWT, Booms, and SD

People I have a slight worry over are: Elo, BF, DF, Mongoose, and Juliets.

People I feel sort of ok about are: FH, Nev, BDH

People I feel pretty good about: Lizzy, Bea, DH or Timmer

People I do not feel good about: ???

Looking at the baddie teams it seems that VGVs only have Creeper and Fetus left and the Mani/Pedis have Rumps, Cathy, and Moriarty as far as we know. So 5 baddies left potentially and maybe a rogue Cohen. Anything else I am missing? Should expect a kill from Moriarty tonight, but skipped the role reveal withe double day. It appears we may be down to a nightly kill barring crazy game and host shenanigans.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Dammit, I messed up. I was hoping to host this behemoth of a game without messing up, but I did.

Yes, no one received votes, and thus it was a tie, yet I randomly selected someone to die, forgetting about Zodac. In the rush of having all this craziness happen and wanting to get a post up ASAP, I failed to remember that.

I apologize to S~V~S, but given she is now outed and I already made that mistake, I don't think there's anything I can do.

Thankfully, S~V~S's game very well may not be over, so it makes me feel less bad about this. Nonetheless, so sorry for messing up; I was too distracted and didn't think it through.

Giirrrrlll. SVS gonna be so maaaadd at chu'

We still love you though.

(says the owl who just missed the vote

)

This explains BWTs reference to Homestar and the contest too. Also, I assume the poetry contest came from SVS - Homestar to Llama and Devin and as a result her insistence that he intentionally posted wrong.

The PP has to be Epi, Russ or Gleam, so yes I think it very likely that was his role.

DH - after a review of the last few days either you or Timmer is definitely a civ, so you may make my list with Lizzy after all.

Mongoose wrote:Maybe PP is dead. Or did we ask and that was one of the kills that stayed with the team? It's getting a bit blurry.

PP wasn't even mentioned in the post, but was on Day 6. Since then Russti, Epi, and Gleam were killed and have unknown identities. So it would have to be one of those three if that were the case.

That would be great for sure!

Linki shortest day Evah!

Ahh! Sorry for missing the vote. Baby just fell asleep again. I thought I had 30 minutes still. The clock being an hour off when you are not logged in is really throwing me. Anyway to fix that? It's correct when I log in of course.

I would have voted Llama for sure. sorry to see he wasn't the baddie threat we thought, but I see why he was very concerned about the perception of Bea vs Vomps lynch and whether is was a tie now.

Also curious about the lack of piranha plant kill? Wasn't that on even days?

Flyin' High wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Rumpelstiltskin - [Grimm's Fairy Tales] – Loves wreaking havoc around the kingdom. Every night, Rumplestiltskin will pick a word to be the "magic word" the following day. If someone says the "magic word", then their vote will be worth twice as much as normal.
I was hoping to get clarification on something. The way I read Rumple's role is that anyone who says the "magic word" has their vote become twice as normal. So for instance, if Thomas happened to say the magic word, his vote would be worth 6 instead of 3. Is that correct? Or is it Rumple's vote alone that is doubled?

Because some people are saying that Rumple must have voted for Vompatti to make it a tie, but the way I'm reading it, anyone who said the word would have had their vote doubled which could have caused the tie.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hedgeowl's list inspired me to do my own mini-list.

The people I have no read on are blindfaeth, Boomslang, DFaraday, and Elohcin.

The people on my question list are birdwithteeth, Devin, Hedgeowl, juliets, Mongoose, spacedaisy, and Timmer.

The person on my feel quite positive he's not a civvie list is thellama.

Everyone else I feel decent enough about at this moment in time.

Random thoughts:
I read back through spacedaisy's posts and keep returning to this one in particular:
Spacedaisy wrote:Ok...

I need to put on some socks because my feet are cold. Then I will finish this post.

Done. Now, onto my thoughts. As soon as I read the NP it read to me as though Nev were the target, and obviously the result was SVS died instead, considering there were two kills from a team that only should have gotten one. However, Alex just explicitly said that he would not write in redirected NKs so I feel a bit kerflummoxed about what that was about.

I think You Know Who has made it pretty obvious that he is Media. Of that I have no question.

What interests me is the fact that Epi has gone, BUT NO, LET'S NOT LYNCH HIM! WHAT ABOUT ZODAC? And then turned around and said, EPIPHANY! If he created chaos he can't be saved by Zodac! And then did a 180 and said, BUT NO, LET'S NOT LYNCH HIM! WHAT ABOUT ZODAC? Having trouble making up your mind there Epi?

I think You Know Who is blatantly lying out his ass in order to save it. He will continue to cause us difficulties until dealt with so I see no reason not to vote him today.

*votes*
As Nev and DH both already mentioned, the way SD mentions her feet being cold and needing to put on socks seems very out of place in her post. And I can't shake the feeling that it's "magic word" related. SD was among the Vomps voters yesterday so that keeps on on the list of people who could have had a doubled vote leading to the tie. I don't get much of a read one way or another on SD--the only thing that really stood out to me is that she thought Epi was bad and voted for him twice.

On to another subject--people who voted to rezz Kate. The list can be narrowed down further now.
Mongoose
bea - civvie
Epignosis - killed by incineration
thellama73 - narrowed down to roles that aren't on Video Game Killers
Spacedaisy
Devin the Omniscient
birdwithteeth11
juliets
Vompatti - Jack Torrence
Bullzeye/Timmer
AceofSpaces - Mr. Ibis

Anyway, I feel like I need to fine-tune my thoughts because there are too many question marks for me at the moment.

Thats a really good question about Rumple and the word. It definitekly changes Nev's analysis about certain words as well. You would want to use a word that would be more unusual and others might not use as much if it did add votes for all of us. It might be worth looking at posts from all of the vomps voters, but that will take some time.

Supper seems a likely choice whereas "specific" would not. ALthough since we often refer to MP as sock that seems an odd one to use as well. Why not refer to Sock instead of talking about actaully socks?

DharmaHelper wrote:
Hedgeowl wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote:Just sort of OK?
Too understated for you? I wouldn't bet my house you're a civ, if you wanted a stronger statement. Lizzy is a confirmed civ role (as far as we know) and she only got "pretty good."
I guess I'll take it :P

Is your evaluation of yourself "Oddly suspicious of this person in the mirror who does everthing I do and is everything I am what is up with that." ?

Every day. It's like you're in my head!

This is mostly to make myself feel better at game end when I find out how shit all my suspicions were.

I may just have to rest my laurels on my most successful suspect VAL.

Linki fact - a llama is not a fetus.

DharmaHelper wrote:Just sort of OK?

Too understated for you? I wouldn't bet my house you're a civ, if you wanted a stronger statement. Lizzy is a confirmed civ role (as far as we know) and she only got "pretty good."

I was reading through Llama in light of the last lynch.

thellama73 wrote:
juliets wrote:
Nevinera wrote:BDH's posts do give me pause, because I can't think of a single reason for him to behave as he is.
But I've been able to say that a lot lately.
Hopefully at the end of the game someone will be able to explain wth has been going on.

Votes *bea*.
I can't figure it out either but I'm uncomfortable enough to not vote for bea because of it. Maybe that will change as time goes by (if bea lives through today).

I think we're far enough into the votes that I can vote now and I'm voting for Vomps. I think the analysis about him being Jack holds water.
*votes Vomps*
This doesn't do much to dissuade me that you are on Bea's team.

If Llama is Fetus, than this doesn't mean Juliet's isn't a Manipulator, but I don't think she's a teamie with Bea.

thellama73 wrote:
Spacedaisy wrote:We don't know that yet Llama. It mentions both Bea and Vomps in that post as still being in the gas chamber. I suspect it was a tie.
Ties are resolved by Zodac. There still should have been a lynch, as Nev has pointed out numerous times in reference to me.

Interesting that SD thought it was a tie, but llama didnt want us to think that.

not sure why llama would be so concerned about whether is was a tie.

thellama73 wrote:I'm glad you're here Nev. Someone I can reason with.

Do you agree with me that, pending a Zodac result, the most logical explanation for Bea surviving and for her lynch vote begging is that she is one of the unlynchable, or limitedly lynchable roles?

What do you think of timmer and Hedgeowl immediately leaping to the opposite conclusion that Vompatti somehow got more votes or it was a tie?

I haven't been giving hedgeowl much thought this game, but her comments today scream baddie to me.

He's working very hard to paint Bea in a bad light as up an unlynchable, like many of us suspect him being. Timmer and I get thrown in there as well for assumptions. SVS, mostly facetiously gets called a liar for saying it was a tie, when the votes didnt read that way. So the only one screaming baddie to me is Llama here.

Linki ok thanks Timmer.

timmer wrote:
S~V~S wrote:
timmer wrote:I think one of these
is rump: faraday, hedgeowl,
Mongoose, juliets.
This is interesting; why that specific role?
the last lynch was tied
rump voted for vompatti
The rest do not fit.

Ah, ok this makes more sense then. You're right. I see no role description that explains it other than Rump. What I also find interesting is Llama reactions to both of us after the lynch. Must dig up those quotes. While I obviously will say I am not Rump I think this is a very good line to pursue for this lynch.

Linki: back to that nickname eh? I told you to keep you baddie mojo over there.

timmer wrote:Okay guys, settle in, then, this will be a long post full of…. the maths.

Looking back through the polls, one of the ones that caught my eye the most was the Day 5 lynch. Epig had 6 apparent votes, the llama had 10, and yet the lynch apparently ended in a tie since ultimately Zodac took over and decided it (picking Aces, for whatever reason he had to do that). So in the process of trying to figure out how it all happened, I've come to some interesting conclusions.

First, let's establish some rules under which I'll be working.

The vote manipulations that we know about are: Mr. Ibis, whose vote's worth is ever-changing depending on the alignment of the people he removes from the poll. Rumpy, whose vote is worth double if someone said the magic word. Thomas, whose vote is worth 3, and Man-E-Faces who could have the votes against him doubled or quadrupled depending on what kind of night action he performed.

I'm ruling out either the llama or Epig being Man-E-Faces, or at least if one of them IS that role, I'm ruling out that they doubled or quadrupled the votes again them. They both knew they were under at least SOME suspicion or attention, and deliberately doubling the votes against themselves at that time would have been suicide so I'm assuming that didn't happen.

There is only one thing that I feel is a very unlikely spanner in the works of this theory, but its one thing that I cannot rule out, sadly. There is a civ who can borrow another civ's power. I cannot account for the slim possibility that one of the Epig voters may be that role, and had borrowed Thomas' power that night. The odds are low enough, though, that I'm moving on.

So let's start with Thomas. The people who voted for Epig were Spacedaisy, SVS, BWT, BF, Hedge and Aces. Aces was Mr. Ibis so let's look at the others. At this time, it is VERY important to note that this whole theory assumes that yesterday's lynch was a tie, which I strongly believe based on how MP wrote the non-lynch post. This will become clear, obviously, and if Zodac does not show up to decide someone's fate, then I will scrap this whole theory. But assuming Zodac is going to show up, that means the lynch was a tie and that Thomas did not vote for either main party. Okay? Okay. So again, Aces was Mr. Ibis, so he isn't Thomas. Based on yesterday's lynch, I believe that neither space daisy or Hedgeowl are Thomas, since they both voted for Vompatti. I also don't believe bf or BWT are Thomas because they voted for Bea. In short, if yesterday's lynch is indeed a tie, none of Aces, bf, BWT, sd or hedge are Thomas. That only leaves SVS from the Epig/thellama lynch to rule out. I cannot show any proof that SVS isn't Thomas, but by her actions in thread, I believe she is saying she is some other kind of civ role. If you believe that SVS isn't Thomas, continue reading.

We've now come as close as we can to saying that Thomas did not vote for either Epig or the llama on Day 5 (if Thomas had voted for the llama it would have made the votes against him at least 12, and the only way that could lead to a tie is if Aces vote was worth 0 ANd Epig was Man-e-faces AND he had doubled the vote total against him, all of which is insanely unlikely). So I move on.

Midway summary: I believe Thomas did not vote for either the llama or Epig on Day 5.

This leaves only Rumpy and Mr. Ibis to explain how Epig got to 10 votes.

So Aces was Mr. Ibis. His role made it so that if he removed a civ from the poll, his vote was worth one more from then on out, and if he took a baddie off the poll, his vote would drop in value by one, and if it was an indy, there was no change in his vote's value. Aces was an Epig voter.

Aces had removed Elohcin from the Day 2 poll, no one from the Day 3 poll, DH from the Day 4, and himself from the Day 5 poll.

Aces' vote started out worth 1. And we know that when he removed himself from the poll that he was a civ so that made his vote worth 2 (1+1).

Scenarios: If both Elohcin and DH were baddies, Aces' vote on Day 5 would have been worth 0 (1-1-1+1). If Aces' vote was worth 0, I see no way that Epig could have been tied to the llama in the Day 5 lynch. Thus, I do not think both Elohcin and DH are bad.

If one of Elohcin/DH were bad, and the other was an indy, Aces' vote would have been worth 1 (1-1-0+1). If Aces' vote was worth 1, I see no way that Epig could have been tied to the llama in the Day 5 lynch, Thus I do not think one of Elohcin/DH is bad and the other an indy.

If both Elohcin and DH are indys, or if one if civ and one is bad, Aces' vote would have been worth 2 (either 1-0-0+1 or 1-1+1+1). If Aces' vote was worth 2, Epig would still be short of tying the llama thus I don't think either of these scenarios are possible either.

If one of Elohcin/DH are civ, and the other indy, Aces vote would be worth 3 (1+1+0+1). If Aces' vote was worth 3, Epig would still be 2 votes short of the llama thus this doesn't seem possible, either.

And finally, if both Elohcin and DH are civs, Aces' vote would have been worth 4 (1+1+1+1). If Aces' vote was worth 4, Epig would have been 1 vote short of the llama. Thus, the only possibility I can see is that both Elohcin and DH are civs, AND that rumpy was among the Epig voters with a vote worth 2. It is the only logical way that Epig tied with the llama that day.

Summary: unless something VERY unlikely happened, I believe we can surmise that DH and Elohcin are both civs, and Rumpy is one of space daisy, hedge owl, bf, bwt or SVS.

Again, all of this goes out the window if Zodac doesn't appear tonight.

This post here, which honestly I only read the first and last few lines of till now. But the analysis hinges on Ace and Zodac killing him as a result of a tie, which Timmer didn't know hadn't happened at the time. So...not sure what to respond to here.

timmer wrote:I think one of these
is rump: faraday, hedgeowl,
Mongoose, juliets.

I didn't actually read your analysis post because you said to ignore it. Should I go back and address any points?

I am curious what Lizzy thinks of DH now given the Vomps reveal as Jack.

I have been reading through player list and thinking that many people are flying under the radar so to speak. I really can't decide if we are a bunch of civs debating regularly with hiding baddies or more baddies in plain sight. Probably a mix really. Here's a brief rundown of my current thoughts.

FH - was killed by piranha plant, so doubt she's a VG villain.
SVS - killed by manipulators, so doubt she is on this team.

People I have no read on are Devin, BWT, Booms, SD and Timmer.

People I have a slight worry over are: Elo, BF, DF, Mongoose, and Juliets.

People I feel sort of ok about are: SVS, FH, Nev, DH, BDH

People I feel pretty good about: Lizzy, Bea

People I do not feel good about: Llama

Of the two lists of no read and slight worry I feel that I need to spend some time rereading those people.

Linki wasn't Timmer earlier analysis about Rump? I assume its from that but would need to find the post.

WB Bea! This has certainly been an illuminating cycle SVS, you're right. I will have to spend some time with roles again now that things are looking clearer. I assume your statement about more civvies than baddies being bad is because there are in fact lots of baddies left as far as we know. I was starting to feel that way as well, and feels that it may take some reevaluating of our assumptions on certain people's roles.

Lizzy - based on the Agods game do you think Llama would pull the same gambit he did with ReywaS of attacking each other the whole game? I have been reading DH as super helpful civ and he is certainly playing that way, but when two players gun for each other it always makes me wonder. Do you not think it likely Llama is bad?

I have been reading Nev as civ based on many of the things outlined by FH, but he is very good at pulling the wool over my eyes. But I only see civ or Indy roles he could at this point.

Whoa the death and the saving! Glad to see Vomps was as suspected. Well done DH.

Lizzy - seems you would like to build a case on me. Will respond tomorrow in more detail, but some of your points change since in fact DH was right and yeah I thought it was a good case and voted accordingly. Also, I would like to point out that of the VAL voting bloc, 2 out of 3 ain't bad.

(or in this case 2 were bad.)

I have Nev pegged for civ based on earlier incidences, but I could be wrong. I don't think currently he led a Bea lynch on purpose as a baddie. Also, the scenario he posits is exactly what happened in Homestar, and both Bea and BDH alerted the hosts and handled it, so I don't think that's what happened here.

thellama73 wrote:I'm glad you're here Nev. Someone I can reason with.

Do you agree with me that, pending a Zodac result, the most logical explanation for Bea surviving and for her lynch vote begging is that she is one of the unlynchable, or limitedly lynchable roles?

What do you think of timmer and Hedgeowl immediately leaping to the opposite conclusion that Vompatti somehow got more votes or it was a tie?

I haven't been giving hedgeowl much thought this game, but her comments today scream baddie to me.

Apparently I should have read th linki before posting and actaully you know defending you a little.

I responded to you already and you ignored it apparently and instead are trying to get Nev to create a case on me and Timmer. Where did I say I thought it was a tie? Quotes please cause I explained exactly what I thought happened with Vomps., a lynch stop.

In fact Nev mentioned the exact same possibilty in his post referring to the first Vomps lynch. Now I havent compared the two, but so i dont know, so its a guess like everything else now.

Keep saying I called it a tie or vote mani and I will have to start calling you a liar too. :P

what are these new red buttons all over the site?

BDH I did something similar when my husband agreed to play American Gods. I sat down and PM'd our lovely hosts with him sitting right next to me and seeing my affiliation mentioned. Doh! So yeah thats how he wound up on a baddie team with me for a brief period of time until he was too overwhelmed to keep up with such a huge game and sockpuppets to boot. Granted the sockpuppet part made it all the more fun to start.

Ok, I think understand more the disagreement between LLama and SVS and I will come down on Llamas point about this. SVS may have reasons to know Llama didnt follow the curse to the letter, and he has admitted he didnt as such. Misreading a PM pr missing a part I completely believe and Devin under the same curse believed him. So yes SVS may think his is lying about it, but i agree there is no way to know whether he intentionally did or not.

Why would someone intentionally not post in orange? i dont see any reason for that other than as a mistake.

All of that said, I still think Llama is likely a baddie and will keep my eye on him after we hopefully successfully lynch Vomps.

Linkin cause this was typed 30 minutes ago.

thellama73 wrote:It's a little strange that both timmer and Hedgeowl are assuming Vomps ended up with the most votes based on absolutely nothing. The simplest answer is that Bea is one of the unlynchable roles or one with a lynch stop. It perfectly explains her vote begging.

This made me suspect you more than anything. Don't be flinging your baddie mojo over on me.

First a lynch stop is a stop of a lynch correct? So if sent in by Grady the lynch is stopped no matter who has the most votes. Is this not how it works?

So yes it could be a tie or some other mechanic, or a lynch stop. Those are the options on the table as I see it. Since I voted based on suspecting Vomps as Jack I wasnt going to be surprised if his lynch was stopped based on DH's points.

Also, I can think of one really good reason SVS is sure you are lying.

birdwithteeth11 wrote: It was his defense of Elo. To me, it felt like he was saying he can read her civ game really well because she's his wife. And I don't ever buy being able to read another player well because you know them irl. It's to easy to change up strategies or styles of play for that to be accurate IMO.

Well then I'll make sure you're there in spirit tomorrow night!

birdwithteeth11 wrote:Sorry I can't respond to every little thing all of you post. I'm ri-donk-ulously busy lately. Most days I'm getting home from work and I'm too tired to do much with mafia other than catch up, because mentally I can't think of anything intelligent to add to the conversation. If that's going to be your justification for voting for me, then go for it. It'll backfire on you.

Also, sorry if that sounds cranky. It isn't directed at any one person specifically and I don't want it to be taken offensively. I actually AM really tired right now lol.

I can see the cases on bea, Vomps, llama, and juliets. Out of those 4 though, I think bea is the one most likely to die if we lynch her. Plus BDH coming in and saying we shouldn't vote for her for some super-secret reason was what tipped the scale for me. If he had come in and said something along the lines of, "I can read bea well, and I think she's civvie", then it would have given me pause. But I'm not willing to put blind trust into someone I'm unsure about. Sorry if I'm wrong here.

Votes bea

Linki X2

not keeping too consistent in your thought process there I'd say.

lets not talk about how long that took me to quote and highlight on an iPad.

Isn't the other possibility that if Vomps is Jack, that Grady used his second lynch stop? This is exactly the result I expected actually and I definitely plan to vote Vomps tomorrow.

S~V~S wrote:I don't think Devin is bad, bit I have no idea of his role.

If this was in response to me I was asking about Nevinera. Is that who you meant?

Bea Linki for big posts.

Elohcin wrote:
BigDamnHero wrote:@Fh: I'm st work on ohine so hafta make thus quick...it's not just her role hints. I have outside access that no other player does. Evryone's gotta trust me on this: BEA IS A CIV.
This sounds a little like illegal BTSC

Can you better explain yourself? I am a bit weirded out by your post.

Cough cough "illegal btsc"? So that's what the kids are calling it these days?

I think this is pot meet kettle moment for you and Epi too.

Ok, just barely caught up on all the crazy shenanigans.

The analysis I like most so far was the case put forth by DH on Vomps is Jack. It might be annoying if he survives another lynch, but might as well get it out of the way.

Nev - I didn't actually mean just you indicating role knowledge. Lots of people have saying it should be obvious who they are or so and so it etc. I suck at this part of the game, so I always feel left out

or that they are lying.

I do have a question though about Nev and SVS. Nev seemed fairly sure that SVS knew who he was, but SVS has given no indication as such and seems to think he is in fact bad for stating we should wait to lynch Llama. I think he is stating merely that we should wait because if he is Fetus then it's a waste.

If you clear that up that would be much appreciated.

For now voting Vomps.

Lizzy wrote:Lynching Llama or trying to lynch him would be a waste of time. The only baddie he could be is Dr. Fetus. Trying to lynch the Doc would be wasting a day because he'll survive again. Of the indies, Zodac is cool, Cohen is pretty harmless, and the Grady is no longer a priority now that he found Jack. Soooooooo... I would not encourage a Llama lynch k.

How do you feel about Vomps?

Ok, I forgot the part of catching up where everyone keeps posting, so I am still several pages behind. Will try to read more before passing out tonight.

There is so much "*wink wink nudge nudge* you know my role eh eh. It's obvious right?" That I am clearly missing some obvious points, or no it's not that obvious or just people trying to sound like they are a civ and we should all know which one. I def need to spend some time with roles again after all the shenanigans.

I would also love if someone could talk more about how Rumps role worked in Grimms.

I am not sure how to take bea's wanting to be lynched, since it was a day where she obviously couldn't be if she was off the poll. If people really think she is Martell, then I don't think we should wait to lynch her at all. Every lynch counts, but I need to dig into some of the points DH brought up as well.

Wow, lots of death. Sorry to have been so absent, but will try to catch up and keep up better this vote now that the sickness is past.

I am still several pages behind, but interesting thoughts around Bea. Not sure wth happened there, but I am exceedingly wary of people who want you to lynch them.

I find myself agreeing with some of the analysis by DH and Nev. Kate voters seems like a good place to reexamine, and interesting stuff on Rumps and words Nev.

Will keep trying to catch up and post more thoughts tomorrow evening.

Devin the Omniscient wrote:EBWOP: Did I seriously read Nevinera as Hedgeowl??? I need more coffee.

Sorry Nev!

Seriously, his avi is waaaay manlier and dinosaurish than mine.

Although there is a pretty awesome husband in tutus photo series to cheer up his wife who has cancer.

I actually meant as in only 1 change from Kate to FH in the way we all voted. theoretically it appears Zodac could have picked any 3 he liked. Is that right? Now that we "know" his secret, in some ways I assume it would be freeing, in that he doesn't have to hide his abilities if there is another double or more option poll.

Everyone here is suffering from colds, so out of it this week.

I am going to throw my to Vomps. He low posting, but not missing votes makes me think he is invested in this game more than he is letting on possibly. Plus as several noted Zodac seems to be picking the winner anyway.

Although I did find it interesting how FH, SVS, and Lizzy were picked before that secret was revealed. It means we wouldn't have questioned it too much with 1 change but what if he had picked 3 different people?

Russtifinko wrote:Voting stuffz:

1) Sorry to everyone for being late; if I had been reading I'd have seen you wanted an early poll and read through sooner. Glad I have time to marinate in peace now, however, with the crazy linki you were all mentioning at peak hours.

2) Again, voting llama seems stupid, but that ship has sailed.

3) I think we should look at Kate voters in the rezz poll. Also, if I were bad, I would probably not vote a teammate to get the shield, at least not all together. Too risky. I suppose bea could still be bad, but I didn't suspect her before and I won't start on one rezz vote that 10 other people made as well. 'Goose, Epi, llama, SD, Devin, BWT, juliets, Vomps, Bullz, and Ace all voted Kate in the rezz poll without voting her for the shield. I think some of them are more suspicious than others. I didn't suspect Epi and Devin before, but between this and the discussion of their agreement I'll keep an eye that way from now on. Don't think it's worth voting on right now, though. I suspect BWT, as you all know, even given the reveal, since at least 50% of those are fake (and it looks more like 75%, now, if theories about the second one always being fake are true). I also don't like Vomps jumping on bandwagons and not posting; he usually just votes himself. Unusual behavior from him that makes me suspicious. And I don't have anything solid on Bullz, and I've been baddie with him a lot so maybe it's coloring my perception, but his tone seems off to me just a teensy bit.

4) BOB's minion is still out there, as far as I know, and it doesn't look like (s)he has attempted to kill anyone yet (SOMEONE PLEASE CORRECT ME IF THAT IS FALSE). Based on who's gotten votes, the only players that would have been blocked both nights so far if they are a minion are bea, BWT, and Epi.

As you can see, 3 of those players fall on both of my lists, so I'll vote one of them.

Bea already self-voted, which seems un-minion-like to me, but maybe she's trying to cover her tracks. I don't know. As I said before, she hasn't pinged me much up to now. Epi already has 5 votes, so he won't be lynched today or kill tonight. May be worth considering tomorrow, though.

That brings me to BWT. I don't know what to do; I can vote him now and try to protect people in case he is a minion, or I can let him go voteless and get proof of whether he's a minion at the risk of letting someone die. DFaraday and Aces, any thoughts while you're here?

Thank you Russti, this is the synopsis of many of my current thoughts after reading. Glad to see we are covering the three possible minions today, but ai am not entirely convinced that it has to be day 1 and 2 based on the fact that there have been some unknown additional kills. However, this may have been explained by the recent role reveals that Nev and Dh were discussing.

From reading through the thread I am feeling that its likely going to be a civ Llama getting lynched. So will definitely be reexaming some of his voters if thats the case. I am not sure that the case on Epi is particularly great based on his info, but I am not reading him as civ either this game as things progress. He's just not as ferocious a baddie hunter as I am used to in his recent civvie-ness, which could be due to other things irl. His chaos inducing stunt with OK Computer, plus his tone as the game goes on is not sitting well with me the more I think about it.

Votes Epi

We are all getting sick here, so an extended break for night is great. So sorry to hear about your friend Daisy

DharmaHelper wrote:Media possesses a sliding scale of powers based on the combination of votes against her and direct mentions of her player's name. If she votes for herself, it does not add to her scale. The scale resets every period and is not cumulative. ~n~ ~~o~es ~o no~ ~o~n~! ~ mentions or votes ~ No power; ~-~ ~ insanify two players, ~-~~ ~ role check; ~~-~~ ~ ~~s~ ~ posting curse on half of the ~l~~~~e~ (lover or hater); ~~-~~ ~ protection from all night powers, ~~-~~ ~ one-time lynch save; ~~-~~ ~ randomly redirect all night powers; ~~~ ~ every single power previously listed simultaneously. She wins by surviving until the end of the gane, but only if she has received more lynch votes than each of the other remaining players individually.

Based on this I think INH was probably Media.

Wow, yeah this definitely looks like Ok Computer was Media. That is a hard role to pull off, but makes a lot of sense as to his program gambit.

DH thank you for doing all this work on the code. I sadly have not had the kind of time today to devote to it and would only get a few words in the time you have solved many.

I am still thinking about bea and BWT. We did not have a minion kill the last two nights it seems? Although there was some speculation that on the previous night there might have been one correct? Definitely want to compare who we voted on both nights and see what comes up.

Actually these look like some excellent letters to getted started with, but I am busy for most of today.

Glad to see our peeps returning to us! No idea what to think about bea yet, but will look into that more later.

blindfaeth wrote:Voted DP and Lizzy because theyre civ.. everyone else, super cruel for voting svs. After the hell she went through, she wanted out. What makes you think shed want back in?

Bea, were not talking about mentioning inh at present - it was on day 2 when everyone suspected inh and epig carelessly posted a wall of his name. The voters for elo for shield with nothing to go on, the partnership with nevin, something just isnt adding up. And the fact a few people suspect me for it just speaks to my stubborn side and makes me feel like im right in my gut. Srsly, feels like he has subtle teammates. I dont think i recall him defending himself either, just completely ignores it. Super weird.

Rip FH and DP

linki- i dont think its the defending of elo thats suspicious, its everyone taking epigs word for it that shes good, when you dont know his alignment. Especially considering i suspect him, just smells fishy to me.

I can understand you finding it odd given you didn't play those most recent games with us as I have stated multiple times. However, as I said before regardless of Epi's alignment he will defend Elo if he thinks she is civ, and I have never seen him wrong. I have been bad with both of them and seen this take place from many sides. I kinda feel like I should have this discussion copied and pasted and before every game just post it in the thread, since it comes up Every.Single.Game.

Interesting point about SVS that I hadn't considered. She could turn the rezz down in which case maybe it would go to FH instead. I will leave that up to her to decide though.

Ok, I typed up something longer, but stupid mobile device deleting it.

BWT, you act like you haven't ever played with Elo and Epi before. He defends her almost every game! It became a central issue in LOST which you didn't play maybe, but also in Agods, which you did play. She was civ Fortuna and then baddie Pandora on a baddie team with me and DF. I have never seen Epi not call Elos alliance correctly, so yes I think that is more reliable than my instincts on her. It is 100% different with friends and people who don't live together like Bea said. Llama and I have known each other for almost 20 years and can't read each other almost at all we are finding out.

In the scenario where they are both bad together we will obviously not know, but again that has happened once this whole year, and yes it could again, but odds are already low. If you want to lynch Epi for defending his wife than fine, better than lynching Elo to find out Epi was in fact right.

I understand blindfaeth finding it curious because he hasn't played those games and doesn't have the history behind it, but you not so much. This ain't your first rodeo ya?

Hedgeowl wrote:
bea wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote:For those curious: I went with Lizzy for obvious reasons, then FH because she was most recently offed for one, she was killed by the piranha plant for two, and because I like her more than the other dead options for three. I also went with INH as my second dead option because fuck it.
lol - I can see your FH vote. TBH - if I could have had 3 she would have been my third. I'm ok with seeing her as much as I am Kate and SVS.

And yea - I can see the "fuck it" option as well.

linki - it's all good socky.
Bea, I am going to blow your mind. You have a third vote!

you meant in group 2 didn't you? Should have looked at your votes first.

Bed time

bea wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote:For those curious: I went with Lizzy for obvious reasons, then FH because she was most recently offed for one, she was killed by the piranha plant for two, and because I like her more than the other dead options for three. I also went with INH as my second dead option because fuck it.
lol - I can see your FH vote. TBH - if I could have had 3 she would have been my third. I'm ok with seeing her as much as I am Kate and SVS.

And yea - I can see the "fuck it" option as well.

linki - it's all good socky.

Bea, I am going to blow your mind. You have a third vote!

Epignosis wrote:Voted for Dom and OK Computer.

Also, we have 3 votes.

I voted for Lizzy, FH, and SVS.

Spacedaisy wrote:So, I don't have time to properly catch up. As such I threw a vote on Hedge in order to spread it a bit.

That's what I get for telling MP to get you?

RIP DP! Sorry to see you were in fact a civ, but not terribly surprised. RIpiywg FH! Looks like #17 was the choice, so we have had 11 and 17 so far as PP picks.

As for who to rezz, I am definitely leaning Lizzy. (Although a little conformity from Vomps was new.

)

We did a good job of voting people different from the day before, so it will be interesting what happens this evening.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Waiting on three more votes. Will end the day early if I can, otherwise expect posts to be up around 9:00PM EST!

Me, Spacedaisy (tell her to vote! Unless she's at work.), and who?

Voted Ace to spread it more and I worried I was about to miss it. Catching up now.

juliets wrote:
Hedgeowl wrote:.

juliets idea of voting bea everyday conflicts with my minion searching plan, but it might not be a bad place to start.
I never had an idea to vote bea everyday. I think you have me confused with someone else.

You're right, that was FH in the post above mine.

Nev, agreed, will leave it to FH to vote bea every day if she likes. If a few of us coordinate the effort we might make some headway. Don't want it to takeover the thread, since its one threat and not from a baddie team. However still a dangerous kill. The minion is basically an SK with LMS win conditions if I understand it right.

I think it may be wise to protect oursevles or attempt to find the minion by systematically spreading the vote. This will either stop the kill or force the minion to decide whether they want to use the kill and expose themselves. After a few days we should be able to at least narrow it down. What do others think? For example, voting people in segments on the poll. This should in no way prevent those from voting for who they suspect, but if we add single votes to a few others and do it with intention this might work.

Which number vote was K4j when he protected us? Just looked it up. It was #11.

Any PP patterns of number selecting will change because, well the PP reads this thread too. So we can plan all we like, but it wont affect it too much. Agree with Bullz assessment that somewhere in the middle is probably the most likely, and the hardest to avoid.

Russtifinko wrote:
birdwithteeth11 wrote: So your case revolves around me backing off from bea then, and not me being blendy? I got new evidence that I hadn't noticed before, so yes, my opinion probably changed there. Anything else or was that it?
More or less, but I think you're missing the scope.

In the shield poll, the only thing any civ has incentive to do is to vote the person they think is most civ-like for the shield, so it doesn't end up in the hands of baddies and get passed back and forth (I htink that happened in MOTU). So if you voted bea, you thought she was the most civ-like player in the game.

The next day, she was one of your top 2 candidates for lynch, indicating she was one of the two people you thought were least likely to be civ. She jumped over 25 spots on your "Top Baddies" list overnight!! However, I think your case was weak and that you purposely worded it to be able to drop it later. Backing off is fine by me, especially if new info shows up, which it did. Wording things flimsily so nothing sticks to you seems baddie in my opinion.

Russ, this is the most interesting point for me so far. The complete 180 on bea. Is she the "most civ-like" or the most suspicious? I actually cant decide if I would rather vote bea of BWT based on what is coming up. My thought in voting bea is only if she were actually bad it might reveal some of her voters. However, if Dom had recruited her the time to do it would be before she passed the shield on to someone else. If she asked the host in thread in the minion role reverts back to original role than suddenly it doesn seem a threat to us. These are the thoughts moving around in my head right now, but interested in what others think.

juliets idea of voting bea everyday conflicts with my minion searching plan, but it might not be a bad place to start.

Linki Nev could you explain that again? I thought the kill was the manipulators? Maybe I understood that wrong?

Hey all. Been having a really busy time. Word to the busy mama problem, except I havent learned to be nearly as efficient as Elo and I only have one. If this guy naps today, I should have some time to jump on and catch up.

All I caught so far was a pretty funny autocorrect.

RIPiywg Kate! Bye Dom! Damn, DP dont let anybody try to mess with the Porcupuss! So far A.S.S. is sill intact for this game. Glad to see Bob gone and looks like we have been lucky with all the possible kills

Hmm, good pint about no piranha plant kills. i had thought it was possibly due to zodac and poll shenanigans at first, but then just forgot. That shouldnt be the case at this point.

Epignosis wrote:
Hedgeowl wrote:Well DP it is then. i am curious if this is going to be a switch and we will all be punished instead, for throwing a fellow champion under the bus. Seems like this is waay to straight forward.
I cannot imagine this being anything less than a fatal punishment. In Bioshock, >SpaghettiEverywhere missed four votes. Does anyone remember >SpaghettiEverywhere Everywhere?

I had completely forgotten about that. Good point.

Well DP it is then. i am curious if this is going to be a switch and we will all be punished instead, for throwing a fellow champion under the bus. Seems like this is waay to straight forward.

Grr lost post. I am hesitant to vote Lizzy, but she does seem to be the best lead to potential baddie if that role is correct. I would rather wait till after a kill for confirmation, rather than possible lynching an innocent now, but there you have it.

Votes Lizzy

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