The Syndicate

Epignosis wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote:OH and how 'bout that that stupid poll with only three names actually was one of each alignment??

agleaminranks (Wave Tennegan) voted MovingPictures07, who tapped into his power, targeting four adjacent names...and DrWilgy pulled one of those four off, leaving three.

How fun was that?

Was wondering why my ability was used when I didn't even use it. I should have looked at my own voting patterns and realized something was up when I voted for MP.

Fetch wrote:

agleaminranks wrote:

agleaminranks wrote:Also, I honestly didn't even realize I missed the last two votes. I'm real sorry, I think playing two mafia games at the same time has gotten me a bit over my head. I won't miss the vote today.

EBWOP: I planned to vote Mac on day six and somehow just forgot to press the button. Even said so in the thread. D'oy.

I still feel very bad about Mac and he will be getting my vote again.

Are you sure?

Fetch wrote:

agleaminranks wrote:I've made at least two lengthy posts now on why I think it's better to be baddie hunting than voting for process elements right now. I've asked for input on what others think about the idea, and whether or not there's something I'm missing. I've even entertained the possibility of voting for an element, but no one has even responded to any of my questioning or any of my thoughts on the matter. I've been completely ignored, and most everyone is saying they have a mafia read on me, when my posts attempting to explain my reasoning just get glossed over. What gives, people?

I, as a dog, will trust your judgment and vote for whomever you vote for.

Thanks? I think?

agleaminranks wrote:Also, I honestly didn't even realize I missed the last two votes. I'm real sorry, I think playing two mafia games at the same time has gotten me a bit over my head. I won't miss the vote today.

EBWOP: I planned to vote Mac on day six and somehow just forgot to press the button. Even said so in the thread. D'oy.

I still feel very bad about Mac and he will be getting my vote again.

Also, I honestly didn't even realize I missed the last two votes. I'm real sorry, I think playing two mafia games at the same time has gotten me a bit over my head. I won't miss the vote today.

I've made at least two lengthy posts now on why I think it's better to be baddie hunting than voting for process elements right now. I've asked for input on what others think about the idea, and whether or not there's something I'm missing. I've even entertained the possibility of voting for an element, but no one has even responded to any of my questioning or any of my thoughts on the matter. I've been completely ignored, and most everyone is saying they have a mafia read on me, when my posts attempting to explain my reasoning just get glossed over. What gives, people?

Actually I think we could even find some Mafia elements in the people who have openly promoted the Process scare. They did lynch two of them so far.

kneel4justice wrote:

agleaminranks wrote:Argh. If JJJ is a baddy, he is playing one hell of a good civ game. That level of analysis is stupendous.

I'm actually surprised at the result of his analysis with me. Frankly, if I were outside looking in, I would be hella suspicious of myself. I misplaced faith in two people who flipped bad when I doubted them originally. That would just look like bad attempts at distancing, and I haven't participated in a successful baddy lynch yet.
I know I'm good, but if I didn't have that insight, I would think I were bad. Which, if I had to have a suspicion of JJJ, would be the only one I could make: it would be that if he were bad, he would know I wasn't, and could use that to his advantage if I were lynched. But I want to believe JJJ is good just by how useful his analyses have been as a whole. It just seems highly unlikely to me that someone would be willing to go to those levels if they were lying through their teeth.

I'm a little inclined to agree with his analysis at the end here. llama has been tunneling JJJ since Night 2, apart from the one vote on the nutella train. Mac has agreed with llama in a couple of posts and done somehow even less to support his votes. I don't like either of the two.

I'm voting Mac.

And you have ignored the discussion of the importance of voting process elements as well, so what is up with that? You seem to have avoided voting for the elements, just as Llama has.
Following the mafia's kill of a process element, you voted for me and said you'd explain further later. Your explanation can be found here. You say it was to gauge reactions, which is fine. But you also explain that you weren't sure of voting for a process element so you voted for me - even though you did not think I would be lynched. Those two things kind of cancel each other out IMO.
It comes out looking like you just didn't want to vote for a process element.....and if you don't have a real suspicion of anyone, why not vote an element? I'm not quite following your train of thought. I will say the fact that you outright said you didn't know how to feel about voting for an element makes it feel more genuine as opposed to avoiding it with bad intentions.
But now you are repeating and it makes me uneasy.......saying you're voting for Mac, while it is being discussed how dangerous the process elements are. I don't understand how people are ignoring this.

K4J, I see the numbers about Process elements. I can see that in a case, we could be outnumbered. I understand the potential for being outnumbered for votes. But as far as I can see, and from what we know, not counting the unknowns, I don't see why the Process is so dangerous. What have the Process elements done so far? They've interacted with us in the thread, thrown a lot of in-character reads and votes out, but looking back, they haven't been the deciding factor in a lynch or anything. They've just kind of been there.

Mafia, on the other hand, by my count, has killed four civilians already. Heck, we're lucky they've fallen bait to the Process scare because otherwise we'd be down two more civilians and be infinitely more screwed.

I understand the rationale behind the fear of the unknown. I think it's a reasonable fear to have in this kind of game. But just judging by what's happened for the entirety of the last seven day periods, the mafia is way more of a pressing matter than the Process!

Look, guys. I'm willing to entertain an Element vote for the next period if you think there's something I've missed. But looking at the game history, I still feel like the main focus should be hunting bad guys. The Process elements have been infighting as well, I don't know if there's a guarantee they could all turn on us at one time. What is guaranteed is the Mafia nightkilling.

Voting Operator.

Argh. If JJJ is a baddy, he is playing one hell of a good civ game. That level of analysis is stupendous.

I'm actually surprised at the result of his analysis with me. Frankly, if I were outside looking in, I would be hella suspicious of myself. I misplaced faith in two people who flipped bad when I doubted them originally. That would just look like bad attempts at distancing, and I haven't participated in a successful baddy lynch yet.
I know I'm good, but if I didn't have that insight, I would think I were bad. Which, if I had to have a suspicion of JJJ, would be the only one I could make: it would be that if he were bad, he would know I wasn't, and could use that to his advantage if I were lynched. But I want to believe JJJ is good just by how useful his analyses have been as a whole. It just seems highly unlikely to me that someone would be willing to go to those levels if they were lying through their teeth.

I'm a little inclined to agree with his analysis at the end here. llama has been tunneling JJJ since Night 2, apart from the one vote on the nutella train. Mac has agreed with llama in a couple of posts and done somehow even less to support his votes. I don't like either of the two.

I'm voting Mac.

Burn, MP, burn. Operator.

Basically, this independent operator makes it difficult and frustrating to really get a read on someone. And civs just keep getting killed every night.

Sorry to see you go Scotty.

This role reveal is interesting. I will try and ISO the people that were pointed out by the lynched element.

kneel4justice, in all truthfulness, my rationale for voting you was minor suspicion for the night element voting I mentioned earlier. I know you had a theory about it but I wasn't sure, and I voted because you had no votes on yourself at the time and I knew it probably wouldn't go through with a lynch, and I still wasn't sure about voting for a Process element. I was trying to gauge a reaction and see how defensive you got, which was, not really. I think this point in the game I'm just trying to narrow down who seems baddest by reaction. It feels kind of hard to gauge voting patterns when the Process elements occupy a spot and we still can't agree on how to best tackle it, even though I have my own predisposition.

nijuukyugou wrote:Snapshot it is.

Ditto, but for lack of anything else to go on to be honest.

I am voting kneel4justice. I will provide further rationale coming soon.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm not averse to the notion of lynching an element. The town win condition clearly states a need to "destroy the Process", and having these elements available in the lynch poll would seem to indicate there'd be a valid reason to lynch them. It's crappy that we don't actually know what we're stuck choosing between Snapshot and Operator, both mysteries -- and I maintain that the name of the role is meaningless, that has had no bearing on the abilities attached to them so far (Young Lady has a ghost, Cell has no real vote, Weed has a negative vote, etc... it's all quite random). I don't think it should be Luna since that's not even one of the elements in the OP.

If we think about it in terms of the actual thread content provided by each, I'd suggest Snapshot seems less trustworthy than Operator given its push against DrumBeats. That strikes me as self-serving and pro-Process.

I'm still unsure as to whether it's a good idea to go after the Process elements pro-quo or not. Seems to me like the Process elements are only showing up a few at a time and are infighting, providing misinformation, possible misinformation, and steering the thread in all sorts of ways. It's a lot to take in.

At the same time, only one person has been nightkilled per night, people who I'm assuming were civilian and killed by Mafia members.

While you're not wrong about the win condition, and knowing Epi, I'd say there's something significant to not only that but also all of the Element interactions as well, it's not going to mean much if there aren't any civilians left at the end.

Point being, the Process' elements seem so tangled up with each other that I see them as less a threat than the Mafia. I think it would be in the civilians' best interest to focus on baddie hunting until they are all gone and we can cooperate on eliminating the Process, whatever form that may take.

I'm also open to other opinions if someone can give a reasonable enough explanation as to why it would be in the civilians' favor to target the elements of the Process first.

So the Process elements are trying to kill each other as well?

Also, my theory has been disavowed, with regards to llama at least.

I don't know if the mod is just having a lot of fun with the Elements or if we should be paying serious attention to them.

Sorry nutella. Rust in Peace.

I'm also voting Man. As a test.

I'm a little confused as to why no one heeded the post I made the other day. I think this is a huge tell-all. To restate,

Royce Bracket
Flood ( )- Sometimes…people can be…contagious. People can be contagious. Whoever targets your target the same Night will be silenced and unable to vote while they recover.

This got revealed on the role sheet a few days ago, I noticed, and it made me go back and re-examine some of the votes that had previously been cast, in light of the people who were supposedly silenced.

First night was sig, who was apparently silenced for the following day. If he was telling the truth, which, since he was lynched, I am more inclined to believe now than I was before, there is also another role that silences people for the day.

With this in mind, it seems likely to me that this person would probably isolate their nightvote targets (or even not vote altogether) so as to avoid being outed with that information. I know I had made a criticism that it seemed unlikely for more than one person to be silenced or anything, but now I'm a little more inclined to believe it's possible.

Given that both nutella and DrumBeats voted for the same element the first night and DB could vote and chat the first day, I don't think nutella is bad. Assuming I'm interpreting the role correctly.

Of the people who are still alive, there is only one person who fits the following criteria: has so far been the only person to target a Process element alone or not voted at all, and that is kneel4justice. If we're going by that strategy, it seems possible that K4J could be the role in question.

However, in looking at the players who only had one overlapping vote with another person on a night vote, that would be thellama. On Night 1 he shares a vote with sig who is promptly nightkilled. Given that sig would not have been around to even be silenced or voteblocked, it would make perfect sense for covering up this role in hindsight.

I do not feel comfortable contributing to nutella's lynch. I would rather target one of the two aformentioned. I believe there is a baddie among them, particularly the role I quoted above. I am placing my vote on thellama for today. I will try and analyze both in more detail coming soon.

Niju is getting my vote. MP, check my post in response to yours.

I know your whole spiel is to be ridiculous and confusing, Wilgy, but we've already got a Vompatti for that. And it makes me frustrated when even someone who is possibly a civilian makes it difficult to get a good read on them. Sure as hell isn't helping our team out.

Oops my last post got cut off. Someone forced those three into the spotlight. I'm also inclined to think it must have been some night activity. The only thing I can think of is that they were right next to each other alphabetically.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Oh, and welcome to the game, K4J and MacDougall!

Addressing what gleam said about me today (and his vote for me):

Spoiler: show

agleaminranks wrote:I voted for Matt because I didn't like his general attacks or discussion style up to that point, but I can't point to one specific post that highlights this uneasiness of mine; rather, it was more of a strong gut feel. I will analyze his posts more thoroughly and attempt to gain some insight into it.

There's also has to be some significance to sig being nightkilled. I will revisit his posts as well. I mentioned that I found it highly suspicious and unlikely that both sig and zebra were silenced and insanified, respectively. MP was one who voiced disdain for my claim, and while I agreed with him about disliking the zebra vote, he did not seem to agree with me. In fact, if sig were lynched after I made such a claim, it might put me in a bad position. If MP were mafia, it seems sensical to me to make such a nightkill to put the doubt upon myself in this case. I feel a little less good about MP all of a sudden. I don't have much concrete evidence other than that theory, but I don't like it much.

JJJ, I am inclined to disagree with llama and Mac. At least from my perspective (again, someone who has had no mafia experience with you before this game, I believe), it feels much more likely that a civilian would be willing to put that much time and effort into extensive ISOs regardless of the day. This game is very clearly serious at this point. There is much to discuss and much to analyze.

Spoiler: show

agleaminranks wrote:

agleaminranks wrote:Going back, Matt has done little but tunnel Elohcin since the last night phase. But his retorts seem a little more serious this time, and he is pressing for serious questions.

I don't know how I feel about Elohcin at this point. She had one post that pinged me but her clarification made me backtrack that thought. I will try to get a read before the day ends.

Just glancing back over her posts, Elo feels like a frustrated civilian to me more than a baddie. I believe her claims about extra-game commitments, it does feel to me like she's just frustrated from answering a lot of the same questions over and over again. I am hesitant to place my vote on her today.

What does worry me more is MP. It's possible he was silenced, it's equally possible he's just busy, but it also seems a little convenient from my perspective his absence and antecedent remarks about speculated abilities and nightkills.

MovingPictures.

gleam, consider me confused with respect to your suspicion of me, so I hope you can elucidate.

Regarding the orange content above: From what I understand, your suspicion of me is coming purely from nightkill analysis (NKA). Is this correct? Can you explain how it would have put you "in a bad position"? I fail to follow you there. I don't see how that would be the case. And yes, I did disagree with you for what I thought were logical reasons; did you not find my speculation logical?

Regarding the yellow content above: How was my absence "convenient"? You didn't give me any chance to respond to your accusations considering I was silenced, which is something you mentioned right in here. I find this contrasts with what you said about me earlier:

Spoiler: show

agleaminranks wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Elohcin wrote:I think this is crazy interesting. If we all decided to work together, civ and scum, and get rid of the process by voting his element each day, we could rid ourselves of him completely (or at least make him vanilla) so we don't have to deal with him at all really.

How much commitment would you be willing to offer to this notion of consistently lynching Process terms rather than players? You seem to be fully on board in your language here without must hesitance or consideration, which is a curious thing in the face of any suggestion that town and baddies openly coordinate on anything.

Elohcin, I don't think this is the right strategy to take. I'm thinking the Process is a single lynchable person with formes. I'll explain in a bit.

Catching up, DrumBeats, I am extremely against this idea of the scum and the civilians secretly teaming up. Roles are scarce but given that it's a side mission it's probably safe to assume that mafia has some nightkill ability. What the hell is there in the promise of not killing civilians? Ring of Gyges, folks. Even if given the opportunity to act in unison with the whole group, they have the option of completely screwing over the civilians with a nightkill from the anonymity of this arrangement. Civs could pretty easily be getting themselves into a bind. It sounds like an inherently bad situation where the civilians are going to get the short end of the stick.

Also, thoughts re: Cell. So, Cheerleader won the poll yesterday is my guess. Host says the Process will manifest itself in many ways. I'm guessing the Process is manifest in the Cheerleader form now, and it has that ability, and this is why it was revealed.
The Cheerleader role also specifies that it can protect a Process element from being nightkilled. And here Cell shows up in the daily lynch section.
It seems most likely that possibly the Process is either able to change elements on a daily basis and this will be what reveals the role, is my guess.
My original guess was that perhaps by voting the element it would force the Process to change to that element, but given that the Cheerleader role mentions nightkill protection from elements, they're capable of being killed, and this would then prevent the Process from becoming that element. So, we have one element on the lynch list which we could eliminate. But I wonder why Cell specifically shows up, versus other elements, or elements as a whole. Something to do with the Process's selection, or Host's discrimination? Maybe it's what element the Process is planning on taking tomorrow?

So, tl;dr, I think the elements are formes that the Process takes, rather than someone being behind it, as someone speculated earlier (don't remember who at the moment, sorry). I think we can vote to kill the element to prevent the Process from taking that forme later, but the Process is still someone out there amongst our ranks. Given that we don't know what the hell the role does and if this is true we're lynching essentially nobody, it's giving the civilians fewer opportunities to nab a baddie early on. In a bigger game I would want to focus more on preserving civilian life without eliminating indiscriminately, but I don't think we have that luxury here. Gotta get on the hunt, or the civs are in trouble. Look at Barry Lyndon.

I propose we skip the Cell voting for now. Focus on baddy hunting. Right now, the Process has a defensive element and is less able to do anything serious. This is the moment to strike.

Initial reads on the few actives on here have been pretty good. I can follow up more on that if anyone wants. DrumBeat's post about strategy seems to favor the baddies but it only strikes me as marginally pingy. I would be tempted to vote for them, but it's a little too early to have more than just a sinking suspicion on little evidence. Elohcin glomming on to that strategy might be something of note too.

You never elaborated on this point (so that would be nice), but considering I've had far and away the most posts of anyone all game, I presume by "few actives" that included me.

If so, then why did you feel pretty good about me then, and what about that feeling went away? The only reason I can find for your suspicion of me now is nightkill analysis, so I'm very confused as to why I would be deserving of your d2 vote over everyone else, especially if you had a positive view of me on d1.

Please explain ASAP.

Lastly, I voted for Jerk (again, because why not?), and I'm tired now, so I'm going to sleep on this and provide a new rainbow list and related thoughts on folks tomorrow before Night 2 ends.

Sure. I'll address the third point first about active discussers. At that point it was mostly yourself, JJJ, Drumbeats, and Elo leading the discussion for the day. I did feel good because (again, I mentioned it before, I didn't like DB's strategy but I wasn't inclined to read him as bad) all of those people, yourself included, felt like they were trying to encourage positive, strategy-oriented discussion. But it is also Day 1. When I say I'm feeling good about someone, I'm leaning like 10% civ at most. To say I'm more confident of alignment on day 1 is absolutely ludicrous and unfounded.

To address the other points: I was the only one that cast significant shade on sig before he was nightkilled. You were the only person that rebutted my accusation of him. Sig then proceeds to get nightkilled. It felt like it would have been a good opportunity to set the ball rolling against me. People were voting for Elohcin and I felt slightly more sure about her being good than bad. I was wrong, but I still stand by that statement in hindsight. She was good at acting like a civilian in my eyes. So I voted for you because I did not have any stronger suspicions on anyone playing the game, and if I were in your position and I were bad, I would have used my misjudgment of sig to try and set up a wagon against me. If I were a baddy playing against myself in this game, your position would be the most likely to try and set up such a nightkill after voicing your opinion on me. Is it somehow illegal for someone to change reads?

I also was not entirely convinced you were silenced. I thought it possible some people could be faking it, like yourself, to try and not arouse suspicion. In fact, after Matt was nightkilled last night (the person I suspected first), I thought it even more likely that you would have been faking it by setting up two of my suspicions as nightkills and attempting to frame me. In fact it really does feel like someone now is trying to frame my position.

I was all set to come back and accuse you again until I saw this role revealed on the front page:

Royce Bracket
Flood ( )- Sometimes…people can be…contagious. People can be contagious. Whoever targets your target the same Night will be silenced and unable to vote while they recover.

So with that revelation in mind I'm suddenly feeling like I cannot hold that suspicion on you anymore. Given that (if memory serves me correctly, I'll have to go back and reread the votes) you were on one of the vote trains the first day, it's entirely possible you were legitimately silenced. So I am forced to recind my analysis of your position in light of this evidence. I daresay I think slightly better of you now, even.

I'm frustrated, so I'm going to stop speculating and look at the facts in light of the new role. If we believe you were silenced, which I think I now can believe with less doubt, someone else who voted for Elo on Day 1 is a baddie and was bussing, probably the baddie here in question, unless there's another silencing role in that crowd.

I do see nijuukyugou on that list. I will go back to check and see their posts as well as who else may have been possibly silenced/missed a vote the previous day.

So someone forced these three into the spotlight

agleaminranks wrote:Going back, Matt has done little but tunnel Elohcin since the last night phase. But his retorts seem a little more serious this time, and he is pressing for serious questions.

I don't know how I feel about Elohcin at this point. She had one post that pinged me but her clarification made me backtrack that thought. I will try to get a read before the day ends.

Just glancing back over her posts, Elo feels like a frustrated civilian to me more than a baddie. I believe her claims about extra-game commitments, it does feel to me like she's just frustrated from answering a lot of the same questions over and over again. I am hesitant to place my vote on her today.

What does worry me more is MP. It's possible he was silenced, it's equally possible he's just busy, but it also seems a little convenient from my perspective his absence and antecedent remarks about speculated abilities and nightkills.

MovingPictures.

Going back, Matt has done little but tunnel Elohcin since the last night phase. But his retorts seem a little more serious this time, and he is pressing for serious questions.

I don't know how I feel about Elohcin at this point. She had one post that pinged me but her clarification made me backtrack that thought. I will try to get a read before the day ends.

I voted for Matt because I didn't like his general attacks or discussion style up to that point, but I can't point to one specific post that highlights this uneasiness of mine; rather, it was more of a strong gut feel. I will analyze his posts more thoroughly and attempt to gain some insight into it.

There's also has to be some significance to sig being nightkilled. I will revisit his posts as well. I mentioned that I found it highly suspicious and unlikely that both sig and zebra were silenced and insanified, respectively. MP was one who voiced disdain for my claim, and while I agreed with him about disliking the zebra vote, he did not seem to agree with me. In fact, if sig were lynched after I made such a claim, it might put me in a bad position. If MP were mafia, it seems sensical to me to make such a nightkill to put the doubt upon myself in this case. I feel a little less good about MP all of a sudden. I don't have much concrete evidence other than that theory, but I don't like it much.

JJJ, I am inclined to disagree with llama and Mac. At least from my perspective (again, someone who has had no mafia experience with you before this game, I believe), it feels much more likely that a civilian would be willing to put that much time and effort into extensive ISOs regardless of the day. This game is very clearly serious at this point. There is much to discuss and much to analyze.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Going through some more ISOs from people who voted anywhere other than Zebra.

agleaminranks

Spoiler: show

agleaminranks wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Elohcin wrote:I think this is crazy interesting. If we all decided to work together, civ and scum, and get rid of the process by voting his element each day, we could rid ourselves of him completely (or at least make him vanilla) so we don't have to deal with him at all really.

How much commitment would you be willing to offer to this notion of consistently lynching Process terms rather than players? You seem to be fully on board in your language here without must hesitance or consideration, which is a curious thing in the face of any suggestion that town and baddies openly coordinate on anything.

Elohcin, I don't think this is the right strategy to take. I'm thinking the Process is a single lynchable person with formes. I'll explain in a bit.

Catching up, DrumBeats, I am extremely against this idea of the scum and the civilians secretly teaming up. Roles are scarce but given that it's a side mission it's probably safe to assume that mafia has some nightkill ability. What the hell is there in the promise of not killing civilians? Ring of Gyges, folks. Even if given the opportunity to act in unison with the whole group, they have the option of completely screwing over the civilians with a nightkill from the anonymity of this arrangement. Civs could pretty easily be getting themselves into a bind. It sounds like an inherently bad situation where the civilians are going to get the short end of the stick.

Also, thoughts re: Cell. So, Cheerleader won the poll yesterday is my guess. Host says the Process will manifest itself in many ways. I'm guessing the Process is manifest in the Cheerleader form now, and it has that ability, and this is why it was revealed.
The Cheerleader role also specifies that it can protect a Process element from being nightkilled. And here Cell shows up in the daily lynch section.
It seems most likely that possibly the Process is either able to change elements on a daily basis and this will be what reveals the role, is my guess.
My original guess was that perhaps by voting the element it would force the Process to change to that element, but given that the Cheerleader role mentions nightkill protection from elements, they're capable of being killed, and this would then prevent the Process from becoming that element. So, we have one element on the lynch list which we could eliminate. But I wonder why Cell specifically shows up, versus other elements, or elements as a whole. Something to do with the Process's selection, or Host's discrimination? Maybe it's what element the Process is planning on taking tomorrow?

So, tl;dr, I think the elements are formes that the Process takes, rather than someone being behind it, as someone speculated earlier (don't remember who at the moment, sorry). I think we can vote to kill the element to prevent the Process from taking that forme later, but the Process is still someone out there amongst our ranks. Given that we don't know what the hell the role does and if this is true we're lynching essentially nobody, it's giving the civilians fewer opportunities to nab a baddie early on. In a bigger game I would want to focus more on preserving civilian life without eliminating indiscriminately, but I don't think we have that luxury here. Gotta get on the hunt, or the civs are in trouble. Look at Barry Lyndon.

I propose we skip the Cell voting for now. Focus on baddy hunting. Right now, the Process has a defensive element and is less able to do anything serious. This is the moment to strike.

Initial reads on the few actives on here have been pretty good. I can follow up more on that if anyone wants. DrumBeat's post about strategy seems to favor the baddies but it only strikes me as marginally pingy. I would be tempted to vote for them, but it's a little too early to have more than just a sinking suspicion on little evidence. Elohcin glomming on to that strategy might be something of note too.

agleam was probably the player most staunchly opposed to the baddies/townies bargain proposed by DrumBeats. He goes to good lengths to explain his perspective and my immediate inclination is to think he misinterpreted DrumBeats's proposition (primarily overlooking the detail that it'd require waiting for the baddies to make the first move) instead of something more nefarious i.e. a baddie trying to collective civilian credit by yelling about a controversial idea.

If there's something suspicious about this post it'd be the bit I highlighted, merely because it's quite a waffle on DrumBeats. agleam seems to cover a wide portion of the reads spectrum here, suggesting that DrumBeats' plan is pro-baddie, but it isn't suspicious, but he could be vote-worthy, but he might not deserve that. Numerous caveats. That's a read I'd like you to restate now please, agleam: what do you think of DrumBeats in the immediate present?

Spoiler: show

agleaminranks wrote:As an aside: DrumBeats' plan is a terrible idea, but I don't think it's because he's bad.

I have to dash off to work and will be gone for the voting period.

Matt. I think your criticisms of zebra and Elo are both crazy and misplaced and I dislike your actions so far. Zebra has been posting nonsense that indicates nothing and I'm reading Elo as a helpful civilian right now. You get my vote today.

This is his vote for Matt, supported by an perspective that on Day 1 was quite unique and unpopular. He didn't like Matt's Zebra vote, which was mildly unpopular on Day 1 at least from the crowd who didn't partake in it, and he defended Elohcin as a civilian read. I at least appreciate that agleam is willing to take stances that weren't en vogue. A free thinker who vocalizes his unpopular opinions is more often a town trait than a baddie trait I think.

Spoiler: show

agleaminranks wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:These zebra votes are seriously ridiculously suspicious at face value. If you all can't recognize that, then I don't know what to say.

Effin' seriously. There was nothing to be gotten out of zebra's posting yesterday. I don't know if she was insanified or just out of it for this game. Maybe both are likely.

sig wrote:That wasn't a good lynch at all, she was obviously cursed or something and Wilgy why did you push to lynch me when I couldn't talk.

sig, I'm not sure if I buy that you were silenced. I know some sort of night action was in place, but I highly doubt that both you were silenced and zebra was insanified. If you read my analysis of what I think the Process' element for the time was, I don't know if it's possible for the mafia to do both so quickly. I'm just not taking it. Either zebra was insanified or you were silenced, not both. Given that poor zebra flipped civilian you're not looking too hot to me.

It seems to me like the nighttime vote is to reveal one of the Process' elements? A reasonable use of the nighttime I think.

This is perhaps WIFOM, but I kind of doubt agleam would throw all this shade at sig and then promptly kill him as a baddie. That's a nice look.

~~~

I think he looks okay for the most part. I made one point that I'd like him to address related to the highlighted content in the first post.

Hi JJJ, I'll respond to your highlighted post right now.

I do realize that I seem to have missed the part about DB's intention to wait for the baddies to act, although I see absolutely no reason that that caveat would put the balance of power equally in terms of the civilians. So far as I know, the Process is out to get the mafia too.

I think if you look at my post, I don't call out DB or give a substantial read on him one way or the other until the statement you highlight. I spend my time criticizing his strategy and why, from my perspective or understanding, possibly misinformed as it may be (though I still doubt that), it is a bad strategy. The only reason it pinged me slightly is because I believe DB proposed this without possibly realizing the ramifications of how it may help the baddies as I laid out. I had hoped that my explanation could inform both Elo and DB as to why it was a bad idea. I believe it more likely that DB made the proposal with the serious intention that, from his understanding, it could help the civilians. It felt more likely that he was simply a civilian trying to make a strategy given the unique structure of this game rather than a baddie trying to exploit it, and given that it was only day 1, I did not have enough evidence in his actions to support him being bad over being good. Like I've mentioned before, I'm more willing to give someone the benefit of the doubt on day one when I do not have enough evidence to sway one way or another.

agleaminranks wrote:Dude weed lmoa

Part duece.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I have a hard time believing DF, Elo, Illy, and Nero are all bad, but it's mathematically a possibility (since the mafia team has 4 members). I want others' input; which of these people do you believe, if any, and why?

Elo was the only one I'd done any looking into. Her posts pinged me at first and she went out of her way to clarify something, which, this early in the game, I'm willing to give someone the benefit of the doubt. But she also had been fairly active up until the votes started rolling her way. Then nada. Not sure what to make of it.

MovingPictures07 wrote:These zebra votes are seriously ridiculously suspicious at face value. If you all can't recognize that, then I don't know what to say.

Effin' seriously. There was nothing to be gotten out of zebra's posting yesterday. I don't know if she was insanified or just out of it for this game. Maybe both are likely.

sig wrote:That wasn't a good lynch at all, she was obviously cursed or something and Wilgy why did you push to lynch me when I couldn't talk.

sig, I'm not sure if I buy that you were silenced. I know some sort of night action was in place, but I highly doubt that both you were silenced and zebra was insanified. If you read my analysis of what I think the Process' element for the time was, I don't know if it's possible for the mafia to do both so quickly. I'm just not taking it. Either zebra was insanified or you were silenced, not both. Given that poor zebra flipped civilian you're not looking too hot to me.

It seems to me like the nighttime vote is to reveal one of the Process' elements? A reasonable use of the nighttime I think.

As an aside: DrumBeats' plan is a terrible idea, but I don't think it's because he's bad.

I have to dash off to work and will be gone for the voting period.

Matt. I think your criticisms of zebra and Elo are both crazy and misplaced and I dislike your actions so far. Zebra has been posting nonsense that indicates nothing and I'm reading Elo as a helpful civilian right now. You get my vote today.

I missed it, it somehow didn't show up in the linki. Thanks for the heads up. Appreciate the clarification.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Elohcin wrote:I think this is crazy interesting. If we all decided to work together, civ and scum, and get rid of the process by voting his element each day, we could rid ourselves of him completely (or at least make him vanilla) so we don't have to deal with him at all really.

How much commitment would you be willing to offer to this notion of consistently lynching Process terms rather than players? You seem to be fully on board in your language here without must hesitance or consideration, which is a curious thing in the face of any suggestion that town and baddies openly coordinate on anything.

Elohcin, I don't think this is the right strategy to take. I'm thinking the Process is a single lynchable person with formes. I'll explain in a bit.

Catching up, DrumBeats, I am extremely against this idea of the scum and the civilians secretly teaming up. Roles are scarce but given that it's a side mission it's probably safe to assume that mafia has some nightkill ability. What the hell is there in the promise of not killing civilians? Ring of Gyges, folks. Even if given the opportunity to act in unison with the whole group, they have the option of completely screwing over the civilians with a nightkill from the anonymity of this arrangement. Civs could pretty easily be getting themselves into a bind. It sounds like an inherently bad situation where the civilians are going to get the short end of the stick.

Also, thoughts re: Cell. So, Cheerleader won the poll yesterday is my guess. Host says the Process will manifest itself in many ways. I'm guessing the Process is manifest in the Cheerleader form now, and it has that ability, and this is why it was revealed.
The Cheerleader role also specifies that it can protect a Process element from being nightkilled. And here Cell shows up in the daily lynch section.
It seems most likely that possibly the Process is either able to change elements on a daily basis and this will be what reveals the role, is my guess.
My original guess was that perhaps by voting the element it would force the Process to change to that element, but given that the Cheerleader role mentions nightkill protection from elements, they're capable of being killed, and this would then prevent the Process from becoming that element. So, we have one element on the lynch list which we could eliminate. But I wonder why Cell specifically shows up, versus other elements, or elements as a whole. Something to do with the Process's selection, or Host's discrimination? Maybe it's what element the Process is planning on taking tomorrow?

So, tl;dr, I think the elements are formes that the Process takes, rather than someone being behind it, as someone speculated earlier (don't remember who at the moment, sorry). I think we can vote to kill the element to prevent the Process from taking that forme later, but the Process is still someone out there amongst our ranks. Given that we don't know what the hell the role does and if this is true we're lynching essentially nobody, it's giving the civilians fewer opportunities to nab a baddie early on. In a bigger game I would want to focus more on preserving civilian life without eliminating indiscriminately, but I don't think we have that luxury here. Gotta get on the hunt, or the civs are in trouble. Look at Barry Lyndon.

I propose we skip the Cell voting for now. Focus on baddy hunting. Right now, the Process has a defensive element and is less able to do anything serious. This is the moment to strike.

Initial reads on the few actives on here have been pretty good. I can follow up more on that if anyone wants. DrumBeat's post about strategy seems to favor the baddies but it only strikes me as marginally pingy. I would be tempted to vote for them, but it's a little too early to have more than just a sinking suspicion on little evidence. Elohcin glomming on to that strategy might be something of note too.

Dude weed lmoa