The Syndicate

Sloon I think it was mostly dunya and me who thought it was wilgy (I thought that for a while tbh the style could have fit him well enough)

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:50 am
it's amazing that we fell backwards into clearing a townie on day 1 and then that townie ended up surviving the game.

Yeah I'm pleased as punch to have survived. Cheers to the mafia, y'all are real pals

Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:48 am

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:46 amAfter spending time with you in the CC123 chat, you were so obviously K2.

i knew i should have stuck to the overly formal speech patterns i used on night 1 and 2 :[

man, since you didn't send one n3 and for other reasons, I really thought for a while that K2 was Spacedaisy based on the first one's style and I had a theory that Jack or someone was Chimborazo and stole the second one and that's why it was so long and different from the first one lmao I was so off track on all of my early role hypotheses

also Kyle I think I sometimes still say Epig, I used to just kinda alternate between Epig and Epi but I definitely mostly only say Epi lately actually (damn check out all my adverbs )

sloon what was it you said you'd eat when bob flipped town? did you ever get around to that?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:41 am I Colonoscopized the thread. I've been holding this joke in for weeks.

Ok cool sloonei we get it and we love and support you it's ok now you're safe (actually you ended up dying anyway but sshhhh)

I was of course what everyone already knows I was. t3h b1gg3$t boii

oh sweet we did it! fun game yall, thanks marmot!!

I guess speed didn't get his wincon, sorry dude

Ehh, I feel like Quin and DDL are about equally likely but probably below niju I guess. When I posted/voted late last night I really felt like niju was less likely than we thought, but your discussion since then mostly re-convinces me that she's probably the simplest answer. The lead is enough that my vote doesn't matter though so I'm keeping it on symbolically/out of laziness

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:44 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:36 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:27 pm so my dreams really don't tell the future?

... nnnnnnooo.

this is the worst revelation of my entire life

well, I had a really vivid dream that DDL was bad... (no really I did lol it was weird)

I think I'm missing out on some stuff re: the whole LC thing and deducing people's roles, but I have believed he's good for a while now and anyway I trust what people are saying and probably should be able to guess more people's roles now

Like, there's really no way niju deliberately skipping the kill makes any sense. If she had replaced into the mafia team and soon became the last living member, she'd kill at every chance she got. That being said, at this point in the game/with these numbers it would be pretty silly for the last mafia member to skip a kill regardless of who they are, so really the most likely scenario is that they sent in a kill but it was survived yet again. That or, yeah, an uber-confident gambit.... man now I'm starting to waffle on DDL being more likely than Quin, since DDL has been riding more of a civ cred wave all game and would be in a better position to pull such a gambit than Quin. Ugh idk man this game is messing with my brain again and I should go to bed.

guys the more I think about it the more sense it makes. Quin is bad my dudes.

yeah I'm voting for Quin again. going back to my old hunch. man, I'll feel so vindicated if it's him since I've had a lingering bad feeling for him for most of the game but kept getting waved away. And looking at his last few days of posts I'm seeing it tbh. his activity has dropped off a bit (and I know he has some RL stuff going on and that may explain part of it, but it still seems like he's hanging back a bit more from solving the endgame) and his posts about the "towncore" and around the sig lynch smell a bit fishy in retrospect.

vote quin

hmmmmmmmmm.

another missed kill actually makes me more inclined to think it might not be nijuu?? because it was mentioned that it could be a strategy for the mafia to deliberately skip the kill again so that we go after inactives, and I don't think niju has been paying the most detailed attention to the thread and in any case she wouldn't do that because she'd be the one lynched anyway, even though she was around during the night and would have sent a kill if she was the last mafia. of course there is always the possibility that it was a survival (Kilimanjaro is a possibility, but as Kyle said the mafia would probably know who that is if the same target survived like twice or whatever idk)

unless nijuu is pulling some crazy wifom bullshit, it's starting to look more like the baddie is one of the more active fellows hiding in plain sight. DDL, Quin, or Kyle are all fair game IMO.

The truth comes out....

so she's little, and therefore a little mountain. checks out.

Well ding dang diddly crap on a crabcake.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:46 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:45 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:43 pm lmao @ nutella.

sorry, I just found it hilarious Kyle and DDL were still hypothesizing me as scum. Like, come on.

It's not as ridiculous as tinfoiling me though lol. Speed was talking about confirmed townies without even mentioning me?

LC is more confirmed than you.

To you I guess. But I think by most metrics/to most players I am more confirmed

no really quin wtf does that mean

towncore is the hot new trending mafia music genre

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:43 pm lmao @ nutella.

sorry, I just found it hilarious Kyle and DDL were still hypothesizing me as scum. Like, come on.

It's not as ridiculous as tinfoiling me though lol. Speed was talking about confirmed townies without even mentioning me?

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:35 pm hey guys i'm scum

Yeah either he's Olympus trying to fulfill some weird win con, or he's pico in which case idk what his plan is if only civs vote for him. I think it must be that he's Olympus since it sounds like it has to be today for some reason

Niju was here during the night. So it's more likely sig than her imo (though maybe someone survived it or something). I don't care what happens with speedchuck I just want to get the last maf.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:16 am Alright so 3 options:

A. Sig is the final mafiosa and missed sending his PM because he vanished mysteriously several days ago.

B. Someone else is the final mafiosa and decided not to kill to frame Sig buying us more time to find them in the process. Even if we lynch sig today and he's not the final mafia we'll have broken even and likely be at better numbers than we would have been if they had chosen to kill anyways.

C. Someone else is mafia and they also forgot to send in a kill completely by accident, functionally equivalent to B.

yeah.... hmm. I'm leaning toward A and voting sig for now I guess

K2 what the hell

i will be shaving mister occam and voting for niju tomorrow (unless I die)

looks like the wrekin... became the wreked.

rip

voting eloh

Eloh's defense is working on me though. That percentage is going down a little bit atm.

LC's case on DDL is intriguing but I think there's enough evidence pointing to town DDL that it's more in the realm of tinfoil imo.

At this point I'm feeling about 85% confident that Eloh is one of our lil hills, and the other one is probably niju. I have a short list of other possibilities if that's wrong

Though I'd be surprised if both of wilgy's teammates voted for Quin. There's probably a busser in there. Kyle or dunya or lc?

And I'd be willing to look more into DDL as well. I've gotten far too comfortable reading him as town when I really have no concrete reason to as far as I can remember.

I'd lynch Eloh next tbh

phew ok good

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:56 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:51 am

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:50 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:47 am do you guys really think K2 would never bring up their own name?? come on. of course he would try to blend his own identity into other suspects, and especially since he's only tagged on because he's part of the group of cbob's suspects (plus K2 has mentioned the others before and not wilgy). so yeah, wilgy as K2 is what I was seeing, and I believe probably what dunya was seeing. I didn't want to say it because he asked us specifically not to and because in general I have been trying not to explicitly name roles for people

I mean, I wouldn't do this. Even if I pretended that I wasn't K2, I wouldn't throw suspicion on myself. Got enough o' that, thankee very much.

Even if a civ had just died and you were listing people that civ suspected as people to look at? If you obviously left yourself out of a group you were part of, you'd just be outing yourself.

That's the idea, sort of. What would you be trying to accomplish with the role, hazelnut? "Yeah look at those people you suspect. Keep on keeping on." I'd be looking at hinting and pushing odd scumspects (though I do that anyway without a messenger role)

But he wasn't pushing himself as a suspect. He was including himself on a list of Cbob's suspects because he was one of them, while prioritizing the other suspects more, DDL in particular because he's been talking about DDL all game. If I were K2 I would absolutely slip my name in somewhere as a soft mention to protect my identity while strongly pushing my real suspects. Maybe you personally wouldn't do it, but I think it's totally a reasonable thing for K2 to do.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:52 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:49 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:48 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:47 am do you guys really think K2 would never bring up their own name?? come on. of course he would try to blend his own identity into other suspects, and especially since he's only tagged on because he's part of the group of cbob's suspects (plus K2 has mentioned the others before and not wilgy). so yeah, wilgy as K2 is what I was seeing, and I believe probably what dunya was seeing. I didn't want to say it because he asked us specifically not to and because in general I have been trying not to explicitly name roles for people

I have another candidate in mind for K2.

well, I thought I had a different one for a while too, but I feel like I see more evidence for this one. could be wrong though.

without naming The Other Candidate, who may or may not be the same as mine, would you care to lay out the evidence you have for wilgy?

The writing style reads the most like him. That's most of it, because there's a lot of details that contribute to my thinking that. Also the nickname for you -- DrWilgy keeps calling you stuff like "sloonbeard" so it fits. Plus, the thing I was just talking about -- I'm pretty sure K2 never really mentioned Wilgy before now, and only now because he was one of Cbob's suspects so he would want to include himself in an attempt to protect his identity, while not prioritizing him among several other stronger suspects.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:50 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:47 am do you guys really think K2 would never bring up their own name?? come on. of course he would try to blend his own identity into other suspects, and especially since he's only tagged on because he's part of the group of cbob's suspects (plus K2 has mentioned the others before and not wilgy). so yeah, wilgy as K2 is what I was seeing, and I believe probably what dunya was seeing. I didn't want to say it because he asked us specifically not to and because in general I have been trying not to explicitly name roles for people

I mean, I wouldn't do this. Even if I pretended that I wasn't K2, I wouldn't throw suspicion on myself. Got enough o' that, thankee very much.

Even if a civ had just died and you were listing people that civ suspected as people to look at? If you obviously left yourself out of a group you were part of, you'd just be outing yourself.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:48 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:47 am do you guys really think K2 would never bring up their own name?? come on. of course he would try to blend his own identity into other suspects, and especially since he's only tagged on because he's part of the group of cbob's suspects (plus K2 has mentioned the others before and not wilgy). so yeah, wilgy as K2 is what I was seeing, and I believe probably what dunya was seeing. I didn't want to say it because he asked us specifically not to and because in general I have been trying not to explicitly name roles for people

I have another candidate in mind for K2.

well, I thought I had a different one for a while too, but I feel like I see more evidence for this one. could be wrong though.

do you guys really think K2 would never bring up their own name?? come on. of course he would try to blend his own identity into other suspects, and especially since he's only tagged on because he's part of the group of cbob's suspects (plus K2 has mentioned the others before and not wilgy). so yeah, wilgy as K2 is what I was seeing, and I believe probably what dunya was seeing. I didn't want to say it because he asked us specifically not to and because in general I have been trying not to explicitly name roles for people

I really don't trust anyone and simultaneously trust everyone. This game is seriously screwing with my brain.

Screw it I should just put my money where my mouth has been all game and vote Quin. I keep feeling less sure of myself and wanting to trust other people but it's just making me waffle at ludicrous speed. I'm really afraid of how this lynch is going.

Uuuuuguuughhh I don't know what to dooooooo

DDL, read this and explain to me why Sloonei is mechanically cleared

Just looked at Wilgy and there's not very much alignment-indicative either way, which makes me want to lean scum on him. But I do think there is one thing that makes me want to believe he's town and it might be the same thing dunya is thinking.

Tbh the more I think about it, unless I'm misremembering something, there's actually no reason at all to clear Sloonei based on the day 2 no-lynch. On the poll, it was 5-5 Jack-Sloonei. In real count, unless Sutter Buttes was in play, it was 6-5 Jack-Sloonei. If SB was hiding Sloonei it would be 6-4, but Jack was already in the lead so it's irrelevant. I think Jack was Aconcagua and survived the lynch (using up his "first attempt on his life" so he was then vulnerable to the night kill). Sloonei's role doesn't enter into it at all if that was the case.

Man I woke up this morning thinking "hmm..... actually.... Sloonei is totally bad and has been playing us and I'm totally gonna vote for him" but apparently you guys think there's decent hints that cbob cop-checked him. Meh. Idk if I'm totally sold on that, but I'm also kinda tinfoiling hard rn and occam's razor is that Sloonei is town as town can be. Kyle is probably my next likely vote, but I haven't really figured out why I'm leaning that way either. Mostly I just feel way more lost as to who could be bad after the cbob flip than I have been for most of the game and I'm reconsidering some possibilities.

Sloonei, I don't really feel like doing your exercise and I honestly don't see how it's helpful. I don't think it's a helpful way of thinking about players or trying to solve the game. I'll just convince myself that everyone has some reason to be good and I'll never find scum that way. I'm not sure what you're getting out of this exercise but IMO people's answers so far have been total fluff and devoid of constructive gameplay. Maybe I'm wrong and maybe you're figuring out which players show a pattern of weakest/least reason to look civ, but I personally don't view this little game you set up as a particularly town way of solving the game. If anything it feels eerily similar to Jay urging everyone to do the GTHs, and he was bad.

What's your reasoning for looking at why people look town and figuring out which of those are weakest, instead of the other way around, looking at reasons everyone could look bad and seeing which are strongest?

RIP epi and welcome niju

Ugh I'm not feeling super confident about anything and would go along with whatever tbh. I'd vote for Sig, I'd vote for Quin, I'd maybe vote for Kyle, heck I'd even vote for Sloonei. LC and DDL I'm less inclined to suspect but I could be wrong.

Hot tamale. The little hills are laughing their little asses off at us right now.

I still think Quin is bad.