I was Fyedka and survived the first night kill. That was nice, bought us some time, but left me vulnerable later. Anyway, good job guys.
And yeah, please explain WTF Epi was doing on that day with the votes. I was following along in total bewilderment. [mention]Spacedaisy[/mention] was it just that you wanted him to spread the votes around/you said you wanted to get Dizzy lynched? What was the actual curse?
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Return to “Fiddler on the Roof Mafia”
- Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:20 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
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- Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:18 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
- Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:52 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
*reads the last 7 pages*
what the actual, literal, genuine fuck just happened in here
what the actual, literal, genuine fuck just happened in here
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:12 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:02 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:39 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
This page was a fun read.
But seriously I am pretty dang mafiaed out for the day. If I get around to more in-depth POE analysis it'll be in the morning.
But seriously I am pretty dang mafiaed out for the day. If I get around to more in-depth POE analysis it'll be in the morning.
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:48 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
I didn't like that exercise in mountains and refused to participate, though I think part of it was out of laziness/because I have a hard time articulating some town reads, and I think that's part of the entire point of the exercise. Maybe I should try it, but I won't have time until later tonight.
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:46 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
OK, fair.Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:28 pm nutella, Aside from his back and forth with Mac, I've never really felt like there was much in the way of anything concrete from Marmot, which reads to me more likely as a 3P. Uninvested in civ win or loss, but wanting to stay alive. Being less concrete in a stance allows him to be less threatening to both other factions. Less likely to die. But there is the chance that could just be Marmot being Marmot, I can't discount the possibility of civ or mafia completely with him. Still lean 3P though, all things considered.
Mac on the other hand seems to be actually putting content into the thread which is concrete, strong stances, attempting to game solve. I find it unlikely he is bad, he could be 3P. If I were 3P, I would be playing as much like a civ as I could, while trying not to be too big a threat, so I could see him possibly being 3P. More likey civ in my mind though.
I also felt like his "lynch me tomorrow so I can focus elsewhere and you guys can keep supatowning" was more or less a 3p claim. Very Marmot-style (and legal). He's totally a jester.
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:22 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
hmm, are you sure you're not remembering Jay's case on LC during the d2 lynch?Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:28 pm I'm confused, I thought I remembered Mac posting a case he wanted us to read and tell him our opinions on it. But now I can't find it so I am wondering if I have mixed him up with someone else.
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:20 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
how did you come to these conclusions?Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:14 pm I fell kind of quiet last night while I was trying to find what I was looking for by doing some ISO's of the last twenty four hours of Mac and Marmot. I wasn't able to find it, which is frustrating so I'm just currently reading over all of the last cycle to try and find it. With my luck it will be nothing important and a huge waste of time, but whatever man.
As a note, I also tried to look at the Mac/Marmot exchange (because I thought it was in there) and considering Mac started on Marmot on Day 1, and we only have one remaining baddie it's clearly not a distancing ploy so I feel like the only scenarios I would entertain here are:
Mac is 3P/Marmot is bad
Mac is civ/Marmot is bad
Mac is civ/Marmot is 3P
Mac is civ/Marmot is civ
All that to say I think at worst Mac might be 3P, but I lean civ on him. Marmot seems more likely 3P, but could also fit for bad, I'd need to double check LC/Marmot, and I know there was little to nothing for Marmot/Lorab. I feel Marmot is least likely to be civ of the two of them.
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:19 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:26 amI'll try protecting you by adding a second layer of wifom to protect you. *clears throat*
If I were the last remaining mafia, I would absolutely kill Marmot next, because killing Marmot is my favorite thing to do. I killed marmot first in the jester game because it felt great to do. It wasn't even for strategic purposes. Yeah. Boy, I'll tell ya. Nothing can compare to the pure adrenaline rush I get specifically from night-killing Marmot, or maybe novaselinever.
wtf is the purpose of this post my dude
mmm good thoughts good thoughts
mmm good thoughts good thoughtsSloonei wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:45 pm I just typed a big interactive analysis of Mac/LC and just as I was finishing it up my laptop did a dumb thing that ancient laptops are prone to do and I lost it all. My conclusion was that LC pushed hard against Mac all game except for one odd post after LoRab's lynch, and that this would normally be a very good look for Mac if I wasn't dealing with Macdougall and Long Con. They're absolutely two players who would hard distance from each other in a game, especially if they could add a layer of wifom by referencing the fact that they've already employed this exact strategy before as scum partners. Ordinarily I say that any case that has no evidence in its favor beyond wifom is not a strong one, but that theory gets an asterisk with certain players.
If I'm forced to pick a side, I do think Mac looks good in LC's ISO. Especially on Day 3, when it was not certain that LC was getting lynched and he still had a fighting chance, Mac was the player LC pushed. That push started weakly and grew into something more substantial. I don't think LC was a dead man walking for all of Day 3, and so I don't think he was willing to just punt the game away for himself at the beginning. His proposed alternative in that situation would have been someone he'd genuinely want to see lynched in his place. Mac has been firmly entrenched as a town read all game, and if he's LC's last partner then it's risky to potentially dislodge him for a wifomy save that wouldn't be guaranteed to be effective.
mmm good thoughts good thoughts
....yeah! let's play duck duck mafia!
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:41 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:40 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
Or Daisy, I haven't totally cleared her either... hmmm
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:39 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
Hm I should have waited until right before end of night to say that since it opens the door for framing wifom bullshit. Whatevs
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:38 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
If I die tonight I'd suggest trying Kyle first. I think he's a really decent candidate and looked like teammate-compatible for both Lorab and LC for multiple reasons.
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:36 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
My POE looks much like Jay's. If I had to pick 4 it would be Nova, Kyle, Marmot, and.... Mac with heavy tinfoil?
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:15 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
nice nice
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:33 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
I mean that's a fair point but there's still value in keeping civ numbers up and keeping certain roles alive. I don't know that he has much chance to prove his worth here anywayEpignosis wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:29 amLast-minute self-preservation tactics are why veteran Syndicate players are losing to newer players who have influenced this site. We used to be "You have to be alive to win (unless you are bad)," which somewhat made sense at the time, but I no longer see it that way. Our entire site now is on board with "People win with their faction," which makes the most sense with regard to mafia. I was robbed of a win so many times as a civilian because I always got killed. That's bullshit, and that's why my opinion changed.
It ultimately weakens the civilian spirit. To get mafia lynched and lose because they just decided you shouldn't win SUCKED. I don't even know why that concept existed (I kind of do, but meh).
If Long Con is a civilian, he should fight and show why he's an asset and get someone else lynched.
Instead he's begging us to let him use his Night action.
Boo.
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:32 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
hmmm good point...MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:29 amNo. That's actually my point. There is no nay saying whatsoever. The Mafia would be defending him if he was a civ I think.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:26 amDo you think someone would be defending him if he's bad?
except that you're kind of ironically defending him with this point
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:26 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:23 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
TruuuuuuuuJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:22 am Draw Tevye's check in the night phase = no civilian is protected and no BTSC is located.
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:22 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
to quote myself from the beginning of the game:Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:17 amlolLong Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:13 amI don't actually know that trick. I can't recall ever seeing that trick.
Nobody reveal your Civ powers.
I definitely used that trick in my early lostpedia days and I'm 80% sure you were one of the people who called me out on it.
boom rekt.
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:20 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:47 pmIt's Day 3 though. He only had one read to offer, not two.nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:45 pmIdk man, could be that he didn't realize "no infodumping" was in the rules. I think the chance he's Chava is at least worth considering.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:43 pmI don't think this is a claim for role-based information. He used the word awkwardly to start a sentence ending with a mafia read on LC. It's Syndicate jargon tripping people up.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:42 pmThe only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as TownSloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 pm we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.
And his 10 posts in the last 8 hours compared to a mere 4 posts in the previous 5 days is alarming.
Okay there are far too many counterarguments to what you guys are saying here.Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:48 pmThis isn't Day 1.nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:45 pmIdk man, could be that he didn't realize "no infodumping" was in the rules. I think the chance he's Chava is at least worth considering.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:43 pmI don't think this is a claim for role-based information. He used the word awkwardly to start a sentence ending with a mafia read on LC. It's Syndicate jargon tripping people up.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:42 pmThe only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as TownSloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 pm we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.
I doubt seriously nova was ever blocked.
That means he either missed a PM or a worded his sentence poorly.
1) He could have info on both LC and Marmot.
2) He could have identified a civ on one of the nights and not want to draw attention to that.
3) He could instead be Lazar Wolf and only tracked on one night.
4) He could instead be Yente and found that LC has BTSC, but in this case LC could be Tevye or a daughter.
I don't know how LC intends to prove his innocence; it sounds like a false last-minute self-preservation tactic but part of me wants to be gullible and believe he's being genuine here. From what he's saying the only thing that makes sense is if he's claiming to be one of the daughters and wants Tevye to check him (since he says he can prove to one person that he's civ). Ughhhh this game is such a mess lol
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:45 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
Idk man, could be that he didn't realize "no infodumping" was in the rules. I think the chance he's Chava is at least worth considering.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:43 pmI don't think this is a claim for role-based information. He used the word awkwardly to start a sentence ending with a mafia read on LC. It's Syndicate jargon tripping people up.novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:42 pmThe only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as TownSloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 pm we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:42 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
You're several minutes behind buddy. I did think that briefly and do not anymore. I misinterpreted Jay's post. He often just says his hand slipped when he decides to change a vote.
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:37 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
Yeah no I got that. I'm not clear on why he did so, but if he suspects Marmot more than LC I'm certainly not about to stop him. 'Tis all good.
[mention]Marmot[/mention], what about Kyle?
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:32 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
marmot -> wifom -> crazy gambit (crambit™) -> argyooo wit mac overnight -> ??? -> profit
idk man right now my theories are changing every time I post this game and I'm just exploring a lot of different possibilities
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:30 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:29 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
But actually real talk why is Nova voting LC? See, I thought Nova was our info role, but I had also considered the possibility that he's LC's teammate trying some hardcore bussing strategy. That would be pretty wild and daring but like... if he knows LC is bad why isn't he voting for LC? Does he think the 3p is a bigger threat at the moment?
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:27 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
And that leads me to thinking Marmot may be bad due to a rather convoluted string of thoughts but mostly because Marmot is Marmot.
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:26 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
Jay voted for Marmot. Since he said "oops I slipped" I believe it to be a forced vote.
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:26 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:17 pmnovaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:42 pmThe only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as TownSloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 pm we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.*looks at poll*novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:14 pmI've been following their quarrel since the beginning of the game. There isn't a lot of substance behind it, it just felt like two scum going at each other and trying to gain Town credits by lynching a scum.
I'm leaning towards Macdougall being the Mafia and Marmot being the 3rd Party. I didn't like how he put his vote on Marmot early D1. His whole reasoning was based on the fact that he usually find Mafia that are missed by most people. He even admitted that Marmot's content read Town but his scum read was a gut feeling lol.
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:04 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
Or Marmot's the jester.
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:03 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
Marmot's bad. Thanks, Marmot.
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:45 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
Jay's been doing some good work. I could see a Tinfoil Scenario™ where Mac is bad, but I would still be pretty surprised.
At the moment I'm tending to think that if LC flips bad, Kyle is where I want to look next. But this game has been characterized by my opinions of players doing 180-degree flips so who knows what I'll think by tomorrow. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
At the moment I'm tending to think that if LC flips bad, Kyle is where I want to look next. But this game has been characterized by my opinions of players doing 180-degree flips so who knows what I'll think by tomorrow. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:00 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
Huh. Sudden burst of content from NVN heavily pushing an LC lynch. Very odd.
I'm feeling pretty confident in an LC lynch at the moment and voting accordingly.
I'm feeling pretty confident in an LC lynch at the moment and voting accordingly.
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:14 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
I just reread this whole Mac/Marmot exchange and it's quite ridiculous. I think Mac is overreacting. Like, he's been my strongest town read all game, and I don't understand why Marmot is claiming to scumread him, but I don't think I agree with Mac's leap in confidently believing Marmot is bad for this. I have no reason to townread Marmot and he is a potential mafia, but I don't think this Mac business is particularly alignment-indicative, it's just Marmot being weird, as he tends to be. Idk, it could be scum or indie Marmot trying to pull some crazy gambit, but maybe he really does suspect Mac? I guess I wouldn't be opposed to a Marmot lynch today but I don't see why Mac is so confident.
....Or LC and Marmot are our two scum trying some bizarro strategy of pushing a lynch of one of the most widely townread people in the game. Crazy gambit time... I'd believe it coming from those two tbh
.........Or Mac has been bad this whole time..... but seriously I would eat a pack of tinfoil if that turned out to be the case.
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:34 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
RIP speed.
I like daisy's defense I think. Not liking Marmot, and still think LC and Kyle are also reasonably likely lorab teamies.
I like daisy's defense I think. Not liking Marmot, and still think LC and Kyle are also reasonably likely lorab teamies.
- Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:00 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
- Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:20 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
I would assume so, and I did consider that possibility. Dizzy's weird behavior around talking about it is throwing me off though.
- Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:15 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
- Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:07 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
everyone completely ignored my long late-night post
I don't think I still believe my Jay tinfoil at the moment, but I had a great point on Spacedaisy and everyone completely ignored it (maybe because of Dizzy's plea not to talk about that thing but I really didn't follow that, I think I missed something in that exchange that others picked up on)
I don't think I still believe my Jay tinfoil at the moment, but I had a great point on Spacedaisy and everyone completely ignored it (maybe because of Dizzy's plea not to talk about that thing but I really didn't follow that, I think I missed something in that exchange that others picked up on)
- Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:03 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:58 pm
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
asdlfka;sldf ok Jay is much better at this interaction analysis than I am but there are too many likely teammates
I do think spacedaisy is the best choice for next lynch but LC, Marmot, and maybe even wilgy are looking plausible.
I do think spacedaisy is the best choice for next lynch but LC, Marmot, and maybe even wilgy are looking plausible.
- Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:37 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
OK it's 3am and I weirdly can't sleep so here's some late-night stream-of-consciousness speculatioficationings.
Not Lorab's Teammates
nutella
Epignosis
Dyslexicon
MacDougall
Sloonei
Neutral
FZ.
DrWilgy
novaselinenever
Kylemii
Maybe Lorab's Teammates
speedchuck
Long Con
Marmot
Spacedaisy
Totally Lorab's Teammate
JaggedJimmyJay
....idk, I'm not very good at this kind of thing, I might be making some weird assumptions, so don't read too much into all of these but this is where I'm at. Probably Mac will do some more in-depth interaction analysis. But at this point I want to lynch Jay next. Or maybe Spacedaisy as I'm seeing more reasons she could be bad (more on this later in this post)
Perhaps LC is in fact bad and the tie was win-win, but that would open up some juicy cans of bussing speculation and is heavily tied into whether Jay is bad and all sorts of wifomy things. I guess what I'm wondering is where lorab's teammates would have voted in each scenario
Scenario A: LC is civ. The mafia would have tried to at least get the tie, but if they could have saved Lorab why wouldn't they? (Well, obviously because they'd look bad when LC flipped because even though that wouldn't confirm lorab was bad it would look like a save) But would they leave it up to the rabbi? I don't know what to read into Kyle's and Spacedaisy's deliberate votes outside the tie at EOD. If one team member, perhaps Jay, had voted for LC, would the other one vote elsewhere, maybe in hopes that Lorab herself would come back and vote for LC out of more excusable self-preservation? Whereas, if Jay were town, LC would have been an easy wagon for lorab's teamies to latch onto. Of course there is also the possibility one or both (though both seems highly unlikely) of lorab's teammates could also have been inactive or absent for EOD and missed their chance to save her.
Scenario B: LC is bad. Maybe the mafia actually went for the tie because they didn't want to choose which teammate to sacrifice. Lorab's vote stayed on Epi, outside of the tie. LC voted for Lorab. In this scenario that leaves one more team member; in the sub-scenario that Jay is this team member, they're evenly split on the tie, but Jay deliberately pushed the LC wagon so that would have to have come from a mastermind-level wifom scheming motivation. Lorab-LC-Jay as the team seems pretty unlikely. So if not Jay, would the third teammate be someone who voted for LC, or again someone like Kyle or Spacedaisy who voted outside the tie, or again there's also a significant possibility that it was one of the handful of players who were not present close to EOD and did not affect the results at all.
Ugh Jay is so tied up in everything. So much hinges on his alignment and motivations and all of it is wifom. Maybe I'm reading too much into it due to bias though....
This is pretty tinfoily tbh but let me put it out there. So, what I gathered was that Dizzy was affected with a curse (by a role on the mafia team) that possibly entailed a forced vote for Jay. Jay himself was the first to vocalize the idea that that was what was happening, and Dizzy appeared to confirm it via quote. If I am to hold onto my tinfoil hat and believe Jay is on the mafia team, I must believe that Jay would enact that curse, wait for it to become relevant, and then be the one to "figure it out" in thread. There is decent FEB-level mafia motivation for that, of course; if it becomes public knowledge that the baddie team cursed someone to vote for Jay, the reasonable assumption is that Jay isn't on that baddie team, because vote numbers are precious things for mafia and it's risky to give him a vote if he had a decent chance of getting some votes (which I believe that he would believe he would, going into that day)... but if he was confident enough that he would at least not be the highest vote-getter (which I believe that he would believe he would going into that day), it's a wifom gambit worth making and I can see it coming from a player of his caliber.
I must sound crazy, lol. Probably the simplest explanation is that Jay is town. But I have a hunch about him that I can't shake.
Anyway, this all relates back to Spacedaisy. Actually the Dizzy thing relates to Spacedaisy independently of Jay's alignment, I guess. So maybe I'd rather lynch Spacedaisy first since my reasoning is a bit more straightforward and less tinfoily. This post:
Not Lorab's Teammates
nutella
Epignosis
Dyslexicon
MacDougall
Sloonei
Neutral
FZ.
DrWilgy
novaselinenever
Kylemii
Maybe Lorab's Teammates
speedchuck
Long Con
Marmot
Spacedaisy
Totally Lorab's Teammate
JaggedJimmyJay
....idk, I'm not very good at this kind of thing, I might be making some weird assumptions, so don't read too much into all of these but this is where I'm at. Probably Mac will do some more in-depth interaction analysis. But at this point I want to lynch Jay next. Or maybe Spacedaisy as I'm seeing more reasons she could be bad (more on this later in this post)
Perhaps LC is in fact bad and the tie was win-win, but that would open up some juicy cans of bussing speculation and is heavily tied into whether Jay is bad and all sorts of wifomy things. I guess what I'm wondering is where lorab's teammates would have voted in each scenario
Scenario A: LC is civ. The mafia would have tried to at least get the tie, but if they could have saved Lorab why wouldn't they? (Well, obviously because they'd look bad when LC flipped because even though that wouldn't confirm lorab was bad it would look like a save) But would they leave it up to the rabbi? I don't know what to read into Kyle's and Spacedaisy's deliberate votes outside the tie at EOD. If one team member, perhaps Jay, had voted for LC, would the other one vote elsewhere, maybe in hopes that Lorab herself would come back and vote for LC out of more excusable self-preservation? Whereas, if Jay were town, LC would have been an easy wagon for lorab's teamies to latch onto. Of course there is also the possibility one or both (though both seems highly unlikely) of lorab's teammates could also have been inactive or absent for EOD and missed their chance to save her.
Scenario B: LC is bad. Maybe the mafia actually went for the tie because they didn't want to choose which teammate to sacrifice. Lorab's vote stayed on Epi, outside of the tie. LC voted for Lorab. In this scenario that leaves one more team member; in the sub-scenario that Jay is this team member, they're evenly split on the tie, but Jay deliberately pushed the LC wagon so that would have to have come from a mastermind-level wifom scheming motivation. Lorab-LC-Jay as the team seems pretty unlikely. So if not Jay, would the third teammate be someone who voted for LC, or again someone like Kyle or Spacedaisy who voted outside the tie, or again there's also a significant possibility that it was one of the handful of players who were not present close to EOD and did not affect the results at all.
Ugh Jay is so tied up in everything. So much hinges on his alignment and motivations and all of it is wifom. Maybe I'm reading too much into it due to bias though....
This is pretty tinfoily tbh but let me put it out there. So, what I gathered was that Dizzy was affected with a curse (by a role on the mafia team) that possibly entailed a forced vote for Jay. Jay himself was the first to vocalize the idea that that was what was happening, and Dizzy appeared to confirm it via quote. If I am to hold onto my tinfoil hat and believe Jay is on the mafia team, I must believe that Jay would enact that curse, wait for it to become relevant, and then be the one to "figure it out" in thread. There is decent FEB-level mafia motivation for that, of course; if it becomes public knowledge that the baddie team cursed someone to vote for Jay, the reasonable assumption is that Jay isn't on that baddie team, because vote numbers are precious things for mafia and it's risky to give him a vote if he had a decent chance of getting some votes (which I believe that he would believe he would, going into that day)... but if he was confident enough that he would at least not be the highest vote-getter (which I believe that he would believe he would going into that day), it's a wifom gambit worth making and I can see it coming from a player of his caliber.
I must sound crazy, lol. Probably the simplest explanation is that Jay is town. But I have a hunch about him that I can't shake.
Anyway, this all relates back to Spacedaisy. Actually the Dizzy thing relates to Spacedaisy independently of Jay's alignment, I guess. So maybe I'd rather lynch Spacedaisy first since my reasoning is a bit more straightforward and less tinfoily. This post:
sounds exactly like what someone would say who knew that Dizzy had been cursed and while catching up saw that it had become a main topic of discussion and felt the need to comment on it. Yeah, regardless of Jay's position in this, this post really makes me think Spacedaisy is on the team that cursed Dizzy and is therefore bad. It isn't much, could have been her genuine reaction of not knowing what was going on, but it sounds fake to me.Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:44 am I am super confused about whatever is going on with Dizzy right now... uh... sim is running behind and I'm trying to do both at once, it's not going well for my brain. Let me try and look back over this stuff.
- Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:13 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
Hell yeah.
- Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:08 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
I thought Kyle said he was going to a concert? Like, you had to go to a wedding during the day phase, and he also had plans. That's a bullshit thing to get upset about
- Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:06 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
Wouldn't it be funny if--speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:01 am I'm tying up LoRab and LC
If it stays tied, the rabbi decides
- Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:56 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
I'm not at all confident about anything anymore. Moved back to lorab
- Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:53 am
- Forum: Previous Side Missions
- Topic: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
- Replies: 3073
- Views: 61309
Re: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia
I wrote it. You think it's nasty because you think it's me preemptively blaming you for a mislynch and not taking responsibility for my vote. That was not implied. I am choosing my own votes and changing my mind on them a lot. I meant that if we lynched LC and he flipped civ I would try you next.