The Syndicate

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:26 am I've done some calculations on how to make a balanced game by random:

If town correctly assumes there's a traitor, their chance to win would be: (1 - 10/11 x 8/9 x 6/7 x 4/5) = 103/231. While if town correctly assumes there's no traitor, their chance to win is exactly 1. Therefore, assuming p is the chance for the setup to be traitorless and 1 - p is the chance there's a traitor:

(1 - p) x 103/231 = p x 1
103/231 - 103/231 x p = p
103/231 = 334/231 x p
p = 103/334

Therefore, the ideal distribution would be: 103/334 (30.84%) for traitorless and 231/335 (69.16%) for traitor setup. So if town ever settles on always sleeping D3, their EV will be 103/334 (30.84%). If town, on the other hand chooses to never sleep D3, their EV will be: 231/334 x 103/231 = 103/334 (30.84%).

I will take your word for it.

Alison has approved these game banners!

Oh wow, that's great! What a happy ending.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:53 am we could have won in traitor rand if we randed an obvious level 0 player or just all tried super super hard but neither of those things occurred so we flip the coin now

We could try as super-hard as we want, all it would take from the Traitor is to try a little bit.

That is pretty convincing, and I hope to recall it in future games against you, Esooa.

Hey, Esooa, why are you named 'Esooa'?

Made wanted to wait until night was done to state his suspicions, that's towny, right?

I'll just note that a Creature nightkill is more Traitor-indicative.

Just rolling over like that, eh? Ok, let's see if we can get some redemption from that all-town G-Man game. [VOTE: sleep] aubergine

Creature wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:43 am I think atp I'm fine allowing any of Esooa, Mac, LC and LoMo to win if one of them is a traitor. That should leave Made, falcon and Gavial?

Why are you ok with allowing LoMo to win as traitor? Isn't that the biggest slap in the face that we could receive?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:39 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:38 am I decided that creature was town at some point, and I am not likely to go back on that, given the scarcity of reads in this game.
Fine. Creature will live.

I'll take that one. That one's on me.

How can you ever know anything for sure about the gavial?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:38 am I have been pinged by everyone in the game at some point except for Creature and LoMo. The two played with actual (albeit lame) reasons to be scumread.

Esooa has been efforting hard but apparently didn't even read the OP properly. I guess that's kinda townie.

@Made @Long Con @falcon45ca reads on each other?

I feel better about Falcon than made.

I decided that creature was town at some point, and I am not likely to go back on that, given the scarcity of reads in this game.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:36 am LoMo is probably not the traitor specifically because they've allowed themselves to become a 9 posting LHF. They aren't that bad of a slanker.

So far, that is my only impression of lost monkey.

Esooa wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:20 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:09 am
Creature wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:08 am Thinking would be better we all lose than see someone here win as traitor.
I am sus of too many people, the game has been too low effort and the Seanzie kill tops it off. I am not voting sleep. We can all lose or we can actually play mafia and figure out who has been coasting to an easy win.
why does seanzie dying matter

It shows player-targeting over rando nonplayer, I think.

I think you should just own it proudly.

Reads? Is that really a thing in this game? Esooa wants to sleep, just like a Traitor would want. Joseph says he will not sleep, but is it WIFOM? I like it, but I suspected him before he said that.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:14 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:11 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:07 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:06 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:04 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 11:49 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 11:38 pm

@Long Con put down the bong.
LOL ok Joseph, if your ego needs it. For the rest of us who read the thread, falcon came to that suspicion on his own, based on analysis of CRich's response to my post. You were like a weird hanger-on who took the opportunity to suggest a vote that was obviously already in falcon's mind.
jesus fuck man can I go one game without someone having a go at me about ego? please?
LOL maybe that's up to you? You're the one who literally just claimed he could have gotten anyone yeeted that he wanted yesterday. Don't wave your dick around if you don't want people talking about your dick, my friend.
I'll remember this next time you have a whinge about how you're treated game after game.
How can you not concede the point? Do you really not understand that letting us know you could have gotten anyone yeeted that you chose is a massive ego trip?? This is fucking bizarre dude. I don't know how it's even possible that you don't understand that very easily.

Like, I don't even care, I like you and your ego, it's great! I just don't get why you'd deny it.
How can I not concede the point? Because I hate it when people hang shit on me over ego. I particularly hate when someone who whines about being meta boxed in like you does it given you should be able to relate.

The fact is that in almost all games no matter the alignment I can get whomever chop I want over. That isn't ego. It's statistics.

I don't see how my style-based perpetual exclusion from the towncore has any relevance in this conversation, but since I haven't tracked those particular statistics, I don't have a counterargument. I didn't know it was such a sensitive issue for you, I'm sorry. As a person with a possible deeply-rooted inferiority complex, I don't have a lot of experience with your perspective.

Ah I see. A player-targeted kill.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:09 am
Creature wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:08 am Thinking would be better we all lose than see someone here win as traitor.
I am sus of too many people, the game has been too low effort and the Seanzie kill tops it off. I am not voting sleep. We can all lose or we can actually play mafia and figure out who has been coasting to an easy win.

What does the Seanzie kill mean to you?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:07 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:06 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:04 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 11:49 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 11:38 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:33 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 6:43 pm

vote crichard
OK

[VOTE: VOTE CRICHY] aubergine
@Long Con put down the bong.
LOL ok Joseph, if your ego needs it. For the rest of us who read the thread, falcon came to that suspicion on his own, based on analysis of CRich's response to my post. You were like a weird hanger-on who took the opportunity to suggest a vote that was obviously already in falcon's mind.
jesus fuck man can I go one game without someone having a go at me about ego? please?
LOL maybe that's up to you? You're the one who literally just claimed he could have gotten anyone yeeted that he wanted yesterday. Don't wave your dick around if you don't want people talking about your dick, my friend.
I'll remember this next time you have a whinge about how you're treated game after game.

How can you not concede the point? Do you really not understand that letting us know you could have gotten anyone yeeted that you chose is a massive ego trip?? This is fucking bizarre dude. I don't know how it's even possible that you don't understand that very easily.

Like, I don't even care, I like you and your ego, it's great! I just don't get why you'd deny it.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:04 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 11:49 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 11:38 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:33 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 6:43 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 4:03 pm [VOTE: VOTE GAV] aubergine

Cuz I see his lack of participation as problematic
vote crichard
OK

[VOTE: VOTE CRICHY] aubergine
@Long Con put down the bong.
LOL ok Joseph, if your ego needs it. For the rest of us who read the thread, falcon came to that suspicion on his own, based on analysis of CRich's response to my post. You were like a weird hanger-on who took the opportunity to suggest a vote that was obviously already in falcon's mind.
jesus fuck man can I go one game without someone having a go at me about ego? please?

LOL maybe that's up to you? You're the one who literally just claimed he could have gotten anyone yeeted that he wanted yesterday. Don't wave your dick around if you don't want people talking about your dick, my friend.

Esooa wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 11:55 pm I mean 30 days lmfao

I thought that was extreme.

I have a membership (what's the right word??) on MU but I never go there, because I feel safer here.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 11:38 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:33 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 6:43 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 4:03 pm [VOTE: VOTE GAV] aubergine

Cuz I see his lack of participation as problematic
vote crichard
OK

[VOTE: VOTE CRICHY] aubergine
@Long Con put down the bong.

LOL ok Joseph, if your ego needs it. For the rest of us who read the thread, falcon came to that suspicion on his own, based on analysis of CRich's response to my post. You were like a weird hanger-on who took the opportunity to suggest a vote that was obviously already in falcon's mind.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 11:34 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 11:33 pm LOL Joseph I was voting you until I voted CRich, and I followed falcon to the vote, not you. You had no cred to claim you could have gotten anyone yeeted.
who did Falcon sheep?

You sheeped falcon.

LOL Joseph I was voting you until I voted CRich, and I followed falcon to the vote, not you. You had no cred to claim you could have gotten anyone yeeted.

Esooa wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:11 pmgg I was maf

What? I was maf!

Puke eh?

Ok.

[VOTE: CRICHY] aubergine

I found you town on Day 1, Creature, we're never yeeting you.

9-sided die.

[VOTE: joseph] aubergine

Rolled a die.

We could have done it.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:51 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:50 pm Dude it didn't work and/or you messed up.
I think you beat me by a second, and I got the "this person has posted, do you want to review this before you post?" screen, which delayed me.

ohhhhh yeah... that is enabled here. It's usually not enabled these days, lame!

12 seconds late jesus

Dude it didn't work and/or you messed up.

Paper!

This P-R-S throw is just a timing test. See you in under a minute.

Ok, me too. So it's almost 8:50. Let's try to post a test on the exact second it turns.

Are our clocks synced through the Syndicate? What time zone ae you?

No no wait!

Hmmm... we have to post at the same exact time.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:39 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:38 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:06 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:03 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 6:45 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 6:30 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 2:53 pm

Nah, it is just LC.
Why not Gav?

Since when does he never post?
Exactly. Since when as wolf or town does he never post?
I've played with him probably around 5-6 games, and I've never seen this from him.
So it sounds to me like this is unprecedented, meaning that I don't think either of us have any insight into his alignment because of it, and so we might as well be yeeting at random if we pick Gav. LC I at least feel has >rand chance of flipping scum.
Fine, I'll Paper Rock Scissors you for it.
Only if you go first.

Ok, I have mine chosen. Now you pick.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:06 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:03 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 6:45 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 6:30 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 2:53 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 2:53 pm This game iis almost a shot in the dark
Nah, it is just LC.
Why not Gav?

Since when does he never post?
Exactly. Since when as wolf or town does he never post?
I've played with him probably around 5-6 games, and I've never seen this from him.
So it sounds to me like this is unprecedented, meaning that I don't think either of us have any insight into his alignment because of it, and so we might as well be yeeting at random if we pick Gav. LC I at least feel has >rand chance of flipping scum.

Fine, I'll Paper Rock Scissors you for it.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 2:02 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 1:56 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 1:11 pm I figured it out! It's LC!
I would love to hear the logic involved.
Who cares about the logic if the conclusion is correct?

Yep, you caught me. Oh darn.

Is it?

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 1:11 pm I figured it out! It's LC!

I would love to hear the logic involved.

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:00 pm
Esooa wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 7:50 pm btw if I die tonight it's never correct to do anything but sleep day 3

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 7:59 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 7:57 pm Why should I vote Marl?
I looked at his ISO and went "meh, fine".

Good enough for me! [VOTE: marl] aubergine

I think I asked if anyone had played this setup before. Any experience?

Why should I vote Marl?

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 7:43 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 7:43 pm
Esooa wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 7:42 pm like it's kinda ridiculous we can have a 2 person PoE looking for mafia in 1v10 but that's the game loll
Again, we could let it rand.
ties are decided by the mafia

I didn't mean a tie, I meant we pick a random CFD.

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 7:42 pm like it's kinda ridiculous we can have a 2 person PoE looking for mafia in 1v10 but that's the game loll

Again, we could let it rand.

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