The Syndicate

Fuck, why do you guys leave all the tough, game-deciding, year-defining decisions to the marmot?

Sorsha voted Sorsha.

OH that's right. Technically, Angry Birds was hosted by Simon, not Epignosis.

Matt wrote:I can't tell you why Mac pushed a tie by voting FZ. I have no idea.

I know Wilgy changed his vote last second, and I have to wonder why. What purpose does it serve to try and get MM lynched last second, if not to save a teammate?

Let's assume that FZ is not a teamie of Wilgy's. WHY does Wilgy change his vote last second?

If FZ was bad, and their team had two roles that could manipulate lynches, would FZ really have been in that much danger?

FZ. wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Well, I don't see anything Angry Birds-related to what FZ is ability-claiming, really.

bbl, dying without nose drops
Again, why would I claim something at this point that you can check, if I'm lying?

linki: Thanks MM. I'm still not sure how explicit I can be. Can I tell what my power is?

I think we already know your power though. :P

You don't have to tell us if you don't want to. I have no intention of sharing my role (though I've left plenty of hints myself). But if you want to share the game it's from, that also works.

S~V~S wrote: *Don't be a dick~ it's a game. Don't be drama, it's not Broadway.
*It is our policy to not allow prize discussion in our games. If you did (or did not) win a prize at any time in the game, please do not discuss this in the thread
*No reproducing or paraphrasing host PMs, or direct discussing of night results or of if you were targeted or with what.
*If you are told to vote for a specific person, or are given a task or a curse, IT IS UNDERSTOOD that you are not to make it obvious. Don't toe this line.
*No role outing of others
*No info dumping~ which means no night results, no info gleaned via BTS, etc.
*This game is closed set up. This allows for limited role claiming. But be careful about that, and do NOT involve other people in your claim.

You're allowed to say your own role and/or what game it comes from, as far as I know.

It's that you're not allowed to discuss nightpoll outcomes, nor are you allowed to reveal anything about players other than yourself.

FZ. wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
FZ. wrote:Is there anything more to discuss before I go to sleep?
Are you a member of mafia?
No, plain and simple. I can also tell you that my role comes from a game that had no revealed roles from yet. I believe I'm the only one.

Ok, which game?

DharmaHelper wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Actually, civilians won every Game of Champions thus far. :P

But I think the last one was controversial because of info shenanigans.
Scandalous

I was lynched Day 1, so not my fault.

Also, I told everyone you were bad before I died, but no one believed me.

Matt wrote:
FZ. wrote:I think we're at a point where we're over analysing. I get why you're not willing to let what you know go, Matt, but first, look how many civvies were wrong based on information, and second, it does make sense that if one group has something, the other will have that too. Especially since coming back good is a very important power for baddies.

Sorsha is bad, period. If it's anyone else, I'll bow in the face of genius (sadly, that's not me, LOL)
Well, we still have three hours, and tbh, I'm not entirely sold on you being good.

I also think it's possible that wrong information exists, however, consider this...

If I had stumbled onto Sorsha being civvie and she really wasn't, then why did she continue to suss me? Believe me, I've even dropped hints to her in thread that I knew her role, yet she continued to suss me. If she was bad, why wouldn't Sorsha use me as her little civ play toy and buddied me up?

I dunno. I think it's highly convenient that you wanted to analyze everything earlier, and now that we have three votes on Sorsha, it's time to call it quitsies and go home. If there were two vote manips on the Harry Stephen Keeler indy team, why couldn't there be on this game's baddie team?

Linki linki linki

FZ usually goes to bed around this time, I think.

Linki: Depends. If you're talking about a wide slope that increases, you could call it a slope, or gulley if it's surrounded by walls on both sides. It's a ridge if it is a skinny ascent. It's a face if it's too steep to hike (and must actually be technically climbed). A shoulder is a near-the-peak flat area that leads to a peak, but also drops on all other sides.

I'd have to check the pictures.

FZ. wrote:Is there anything more to discuss before I go to sleep?

Are you a member of mafia?

FZ. wrote:I'm going to bed. If the game ends tonight, please wait for me for the party And don't change your mind. This is going to be a civvie win. I asked before but no one answered: Did the civvies win a championship game before?

linki: Where I come from, a protector could also protect from night investigation or any other target that could harm you. But if it's a known role then I don't know what I'm talking about

Actually, civilians won every Game of Champions thus far. :P

But I think the last one was controversial because of info shenanigans.

New single game post record goes to Ricochet. He gets lynched Day 1, but still manages to spew out 1,500 posts.

FZ. wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:It's an easy way to balance teams out, put similar roles on either team.

I would argue yes. Plus zebra's wasn't exactly a seemer. It could not protect her own team, only impact civs.
We don't even know what Mac's role was. What could he protect from.

What? Mac was a role from llama's Brian Eno Mafia, and his ability was a Protector.

As for zebra, I said protect, but I wasn't talking about the protect ability, I was talking about her role ability.

Ricochet wrote:
FZ. wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Then again, what's stopping us from profiling you as Napoleon Foy, FZ., despite the audacity of there being two vote wipers in the same team?
I went to the first page to check who this Napoleon person is and I don't see that role
It's an extrapolation from all the baddie/indy roles in Llama's eligible games, a list I already posted Even Matt mentioned it.

But yeah, you're clearly not paying attention to anything I'm writing. Oh well.

I asked Mac if his role sounded like Boolean Boy yesterday. He did not react at all, so perhaps he had no clue wtf I was talking about, and it's not actually a role.

It's an easy way to balance teams out, put similar roles on either team.

I would argue yes. Plus zebra's wasn't exactly a seemer. It could not protect her own team, only impact civs.

Matt wrote:MM - I don't think you've answered. Do you think it's possible Team Llama has an alignment switch? The answer to this question is key, IMO, with regards to Sorsha.

An alignment switch? Oh that's right, you mean like a seemer.

Fuck.

Matt wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
FZ. wrote:MM, do you have a really goo reason to trust Matt?
Yes, because reasons.

If he's bad, he would have been a fool to try to nightkill you or myself last night, which is why the kill choice points to him.

But this silencing bizness Matt is talking about, I don't understand. He says I should, but I don't.
Let's go through this by steps...

1) Do you remember what I did last night?

2) How is it possible Sorsha is silenced?

3) The only way it's possible, is if bea, using her position 4 power of redirect, redirected me off of a certain someone.

I'm not really understanding how you're having trouble with this.

1) Yes

2) I don't think it's possible, unless she self-targeted or somethign

3) I'm still not sure I follow. I don't believe you have the ability to silence, nor FZ, so no matter how you look at it, I'm not sure this is related.

Another point against Sorsha.

I said this at 11:18 PM last night. Sorsha had already posted in other places hours before (during Day 12), so she would have known she was silenced. However, she didn't spam other threads until 30 minutes after I posted the above link. If she is silenced, she would have known earlier, and I think it looks bad that she did it in a reactionary manner after I noticed that she wasn't posting. In other words, she did it because I noticed.

Oh, and I believe that if is Sorsha is civ and actually silenced, she would have placed her vote on her top suspect already. She has not done that yet.

Being silenced is one thing. Being silenced and vote-blocked at this stage would be fucked up.

FZ. wrote:MM, do you have a really goo reason to trust Matt?

Yes, because reasons.

If he's bad, he would have been a fool to try to nightkill you or myself last night, which is why the kill choice points to him.

But this silencing bizness Matt is talking about, I don't understand. He says I should, but I don't.

FZ. wrote:I think we solved it, but if you need to discuss more, then go ahead. I know I'm not bad. I want to believe Matt is good too. The only reason I was that suspicious of him in the first place was his sureness and unwillingness to look at more angles. Since he's done that, and everything he's saying in addition, I think we made the right decision.

linki: MM, while Sorsha could kill anyone else as well, she said she thought Matt was the last baddie, not Bea, so killing Bea would make her "right" on Bea and give more credit to the notion Matt is bad because Bea was suspicious of Matt.

Let me post

Well, that is a good point.

This coupled with Sorsha's late contributions. Even after she became confirmed-civ, she didn't have much to offer.

Also, I checked and nobody was silenced on Day 1. So methinks Sorsha is faking it (or the hosts gone and pulled a fast one on us).

Ricochet wrote:
Matt wrote:Rico - No, I'm not the silencer. And no, you're not supposed to know what I mean, FZ either. Only MM. Sorry that's the way it's gotta be.
Tranq a conjuring. Never playing a game with you ever again.

linki:

[quote="MM'"She couldn't have killed Sorsha (double-targeting)"

wot[/quote]

Sorsha was targeted for nightkill Night 10. So she couldn't be targeted again Night 11.

FZ. wrote:I'm guessing at some point she'll just come in and say RL just didn't allow her to post or that she didn't know who she could trust so she let us talk among ourselves so she could get a feel of who the last baddie is.

Actually, if Bea thought you were the baddie why would she redirect the kill if it would only lead to another one of us dying? Could the redirection be shifted back to the person she was targeting? That is the only reason why she would target you, isn't it?

I doubt it. She spammed the off-topic forums last night, which is a tell-tale sign of a player being silenced.

She also posted in the Arkham signups last night too.

Matt wrote:
FZ. wrote:I'm guessing at some point she'll just come in and say RL just didn't allow her to post or that she didn't know who she could trust so she let us talk among ourselves so she could get a feel of who the last baddie is.

Actually, if Bea thought you were the baddie why would she redirect the kill if it would only lead to another one of us dying? Could the redirection be shifted back to the person she was targeting? That is the only reason why she would target you, isn't it?
That's what I'm thinking. bea thinks I'm the last baddie and targets me, my power gets redirected, and then and only then, is it possible Sorsha is even silenced.

How in the world could you silence someone though? Bea would redirect your ability, not an ability targeted at you.

Just processing the events that took place last night.

FZ is bad: It does not make sense for FZ to kill bea. She couldn't have killed Sorsha (double-targeting), but she had Matt and myself as options. Bea was the easy lynch choice going into today. Why would she put her own credibility on the line and nightkill the obvious lynch choice? Had she successfully killed myself or Matt, and bea was lynched, then this game would be almost over. FZ has hinted at her role already, so the silencing of Sorsha goes unexplained.

Matt is bad: If he is, I believe he would have killed bea, because he knew he had no other option. But unfortunately, this does not explain the Sorsha silencing phenomenon either.

Sorsha is bad: This is not an unlikely scenario. Before Sorsha survived the nightkill, she was taking heat. Her survival gave her a lot of cred. But one thing we have to remember now is that Mac was a Protector role, and I don't see another obvious reason that Sorsha survived. Like FZ, bea was not her only night kill option. She could have targeted anybody else and let bea get lynched. But there is her silencing today, which doesn't seem right. For all we know, there could be no silencer role, and she's faking it. Either way, it just doesn't look good for her, because she is the only one who could be a silencer if there is one.

Ricochet wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Sorsha silencing herself is a conclusion I came to. If it is a baddie role power (which is possible), it has been recognized around these parts that such a power is not very useful for baddies, especially because baddie teams tend to silence themselves to excuse themselves for talking for a day phase. It's going out of style. That would be a reason as to why no one has been noticeably silenced this game.
You can silence civs. Or y'know, people not you or your team, in general.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:^^^Post #8,000 wotwot.
TH record still safe though.

True.

What if Jay was simultaneously silenced and smiley-cursed on the same day?

^^^Post #8,000 wotwot.

Sorsha silencing herself is a conclusion I came to. If it is a baddie role power (which is possible), it has been recognized around these parts that such a power is not very useful for baddies, especially because baddie teams tend to silence themselves to excuse themselves for talking for a day phase. It's going out of style. That would be a reason as to why no one has been noticeably silenced this game.

But if there actually is a silencer, it's not Matt, and it's not FZ either.

On the other hand, a silencer would balance out zebra's curse-type role to give both baddie teams a similar type role ability.

Ricochet wrote:
Matt wrote:
FZ. wrote:Listen to me, I'm a civvie. I am not lying, this whole game depends on us. Sorsha is not silenced. We got lucky with her vote, and she's scared to post. She let us go at each other thinking this would be the best way to insure a civvie lynch. We can not let this happen. We need this win, we will get this win and please take your vote off me Matt.
Fuck it. I'll temp vote Sorsha until MM returns with his thoughts.

Given how one of our hosts says silencing is his least favorite game mechanic, I'm finding it hard to believe that Sorsha is silenced at LYLO when there hasn't been a silenced person all game (again, as far as we know).
I know you like making these crazy connections, but Hosts' dislike for something and them creating a silencer, that could, in principle, silence someone on Lylo Day has little to nothing to do with each other. What, you're suggesting SVS or TH simply forbid the player to silence anymore on Lylo? Well, what has the silencer done until now, then?

Also, don't resort to outside meta. Keep it in this game or in relevant meta from past games, not from "what's your favourite mafia pasttime" forums.

Well I doubt they would let that be a result of a nightpoll option. Having that role in the game is one thing, but randomly punishing someone to be silenced at this stage would be rude and unlikely.

Actually, more importantly than Sorsha being silenced is that she hasn't voted yet.

Makes me think she's waiting until day's end.

Ricochet wrote:Cool silence, bro.

Are you talking to me? I said I was going to bed. It's only 8:30 in the morning right now.

Ricochet wrote:I think the indy will win regardless, because he said he needs a certain number of baddies left alive and I guess that number is one.

GTFO! NO!

Matt wrote:Couldn't sleep and decided to do some research. I've still got more to sort through, but here's a few things that are interesting...

1) MM, if Sorsha is really silenced and this isn't some elaborate scheme (which I severely doubt), then I think bea targeted me last night. Position 4 won the "who to rezz" poll, and position 4 on bea's power list is "redirect a player's power". She was sussing me yesterday, and after Rico's brilliant suggestion of blocking me, that has to be why Sorsha is silenced.

Are you admitting that you can silence players?

Ok seriously, off to bed.

FZ. wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
FZ. wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I'm going to disappoint somebody no matter who I vote for. That's just how mafia goes.
I get the pressure. I'm sorry you're in that position. I didn't put you there. I'll try not to be disappointed, LOL, but I can't promise anything.

Please just explain to me the following:
1. how if Matt has so much knowledge, it took him so many days to come around about you? Conveniently, only when Motel room flipped bad.
2. How does he not consider missing something after being so sure about you and "finding out" he was wrong? Why does it not lead him to question Sorsha?
3. Would a civvie be that decisive at the most crucial point in the game? Would he not turn every freaking stone to get to the bottom of things? Would he not have at least 0.000001% doubt?
1) Can't answer, except that Matt's got a big fat mouth.
2) I don't have an answer for this one.
3) Honestly? If it's Matt no. He may not always be right, but he always sounds 100% certain in case you noticed.
Again, we've had so many mistakes made by "informed" civvies. There is no way a civvie wouldn't consider the slightest possibility he may have some misinformation. At some point in the game, after trusting JJJ and defending him with all I had, there was some knowledge I had that made me think maybe I was wrong about him and he was bad after all. That was before the night he was NK in. That obviously proved my initial trust was the right thing, but at some point I was yelling at myself for trusting JJJ so strongly and thought he was working with Sorsha. My point is, every civvie with information has some doubts at some point. Matt is standing on the verge of a cliff between losing and winning. No way would he come in here like that, so sure and not willing to budge if he was good. FFS!
The funny thing is, even as I write this, there's a little voice saying maybe he's not bad, and has wrong information about Sorsha. But like I said, the fact he has no doubt at all is what makes me distrust him the most. I think that's the most important factor you should consider.

linki: Fine, do whatever you need to. Again, I'm sorry for pressuring you. You don't need to help us and you are, so thanks.

I agree with you there. Who knows what happened with the Boomslang thing. However, the LC thing was different. LC never claimed to have information, nor could one make a solid argument he had information. He was right about bea. Mac was a protector, so it's reasonable to think that's a civ role. Anyway, it is worth noting that you voted for him the day he was lynched. Not necessarily bad, just noteworthy. Seeing as he had a powerful civ role and a lot of connections, mafia would have loved to get rid of him. If you are bad, you would have known he was a civ BTSC-obtainer, and thus had strong inclination to off him. But if you are civ, you may have just been in the same boat I was, barking up the wrong tree.

Sounds good to me. I need sleep. I meant to go to bed an hour and a half ago.

Linki: let me sleep!

I think Rico is correct about Sorsha being silenced. I just now noticed her spamming a bunch of threads. May Roxy's legacy live on.

Sorsha, I hope you don't mind me leaving my vote for a little bit while I decide.

FZ. wrote:Apparently votes are not so hard to twist because even when I vote for the right person, you're turning it around. What about Occam's razor? Did it ever occur to you that this list of votes is actually me voting baddies because i'm a civ?
Too bad llama is not here...

I understand the sentiment. But I still want Rico to look at it. He's insanely good at remaining objective, he's confirmed civ, and it's worth looking at.

FZ. wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I'm going to disappoint somebody no matter who I vote for. That's just how mafia goes.
I get the pressure. I'm sorry you're in that position. I didn't put you there. I'll try not to be disappointed, LOL, but I can't promise anything.

Please just explain to me the following:
1. how if Matt has so much knowledge, it took him so many days to come around about you? Conveniently, only when Motel room flipped bad.
2. How does he not consider missing something after being so sure about you and "finding out" he was wrong? Why does it not lead him to question Sorsha?
3. Would a civvie be that decisive at the most crucial point in the game? Would he not turn every freaking stone to get to the bottom of things? Would he not have at least 0.000001% doubt?

1) Can't answer, except that Matt's got a big fat mouth.
2) I don't have an answer for this one.
3) Honestly? If it's Matt no. He may not always be right, but he always sounds 100% certain in case you noticed.

FZ. wrote:Okay, I've voted Matt. I seriously think I've done everything I can. For what it's worth, I hope Sorsha votes for me too, Matt.

As for MM, you of all people should know how I play as a baddie. Not that I know to tell you the differences...But for crying out loud, you can twist the votes in any way you like, it won't change what really matters. Read interactions between me and the proven baddies, and interactions between Matt and the baddies. Don't think who is bussing who and what, but rather get a feel of the sincerity of the posts. If you honestly find my discussions with them not genuine, vote wherever you have to.

I disagree. In a sense, votes are harder to twist, because they are a concrete action. Rather then trying to understand why you craft sentences certain ways, or why you said what you did about a certain player, I can look and learn that "Oh, today FZ voted for motel room".

I'm not twisting, I'm noticing a pattern.

FZ. wrote:linki: Why are you voting Sorsha? How does that help? If you believe Matt is good, then she's good and has a reason for not being here. If Matt is not good, he's probably defending her because he wants her to trust him, which makes her good as well. If he's good and wrong about her, he's an idiot (no offense). Either way, voting her will not help.

If for whatever reason, Sorsha is the last baddie, I want to make it clear to her that she's not getting off easy.

Plus, votes are changeable.

FZ. wrote:linki: Imagine how I feel. I'm at the verge of saying to hell with it. I'm right and those who vote me will have the loss on them, but I don't know where Sorsha is, and MM is an indy. Even though he's helping the civvies, he won't care that much. So I feel obligated. By the way, did civvies win a championship game before?

That's... not... true... Will you people stop saying that!?

Ricochet wrote:I don't recall anyone being silenced in the whole game.

Me neither.

I'm voting Sorsha until she says something.

I'm going to disappoint somebody no matter who I vote for.

That's just how mafia goes.

Matt wrote:DH also called me bad for defending Sorsha.

But whatevs. Marmot, do you believe me or not? FYI, I had a good time yo, and if you vote against me, no hard feelings, but you will be wrong. I am civ.

FZ has flip flopped on me so many times this game it's ridiculous. Just this morning she was calling me civ. And now, she's calling me bad because I think she's bad. And yet, before she claimed to be willing to vote for bea because "it can't be anybody else". Well that's effin' funny FZ, that YOU can say people certainly can't be bad, but if I say it, I'm a bad guy.

Bullshit.

I'm going to analyze what I can. I do believe you, but I want to make sure I'm making the right decision, because FZ's defenses are also pretty believable.

Ricochet wrote:I do MM but I'm already in town so itll have to wait a bit.

The timing of FZ's Mac vote might be another factor here. FZ placed her final vote fairly early on Day 4, Day 5, Day 6, Day 7, Day 9, and Day 10. These days all have something in common, that a Team Llama baddie was not lynched, or was not supposed to be lynched.

Day 4 - FZ votes 6th on the llama wagon and 12th overall out of 19. Llama is Indy
Day 5 - FZ votes 1st for me and 4th overall out of 16. Tranq is lynched, civ.
Day 6 - FZ votes 2nd on the Long Con wagon, and 2nd overall out of 11. LC is lynched, civ.
Day 7 - FZ votes 1st on Dr. Wilgy wagon, and 3rd overall out of 12. Wilgy ties with Boomslang, who is lynched and civ.
Day 9 - FZ votes 3rd on motel room, and 4th overall out of 10. Motel room is not lynched (switched to Draconus).
Day 10 - FZ votes 1st on motel room, and 5th overall out of 8. I led the vote, but something happened, and motel was inexplicably lynhced.

So in all of the above instances, FZ voted early or middle of the road during the day phases. With one exception, no Team Llama baddie was in obvious danger of being lynched on any of these days. The one exception was Day 7, when the 3-way tie happened. But with the baddies having the ability to remove lynch votes, Wilgy may have been relatively safe this day.

Also, on Day 10, motel room was lynched, but he didn't appear to be in danger. I took a ton of early votes, and so the couple late votes on me did not look threatening, and thus voting motel had less risk here.

But looking at Day 8:

Day 8 - FZ votes 5th on the Draco wagon and 10th overall out of 11. Dr. Wilgy leads the lynch, but does not die, inexplicably.

Say that Dr. Wilgy was fed on Day 7, then by double-targeting rules, he could not have been fed Day 8. Thus, he was in more danger of being lynched, and wound up winning the lynch 6-5. The is a high-pressure situation for him, and would offer an explanation as to why FZ decided to finalize her vote late in the day.

The reason I bring this up is because in Pikmin mafia, FZ bussed me on the final day phase of the game. It was a crucial situation, and when she did, she finalized her vote in the final 10 minutes of the day phase. A late vote decision then might be something worth looking at now.

Matt wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Champies 2015 - I know stuff and I did stuff that I know and MM, you know I'm right, right, but I ain't gonna elaborate for others: the game
Lulz. I know it sounds outstanding, but it's true.

Fuck, MM even knows it's true, I don't know why he's having such a hard time with this!

Thread material Matt.

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