Hooray! People are talking; this is great news. By popular request,
thellama73 is next up.
Llama interacts with DDL on Day 1, discussing whether or not we should lynch Missing Person for not having an avatar. Typical llama banter, but this idea proposed by llama, coupled with MP's lack of participation, may be the strongest driving force for what was to become MP's lynch on Day 4.
thellama73 wrote:Dragon D. Luffy wrote:thellama73 wrote:Dragon D. Luffy wrote:thellama73 wrote:Also, I'm announcing now that I will vote for Missing Person if there is no avatar by the time I leave for the airport tomorrow.
Is that even a good idea? If Missing Person doesn't put an avatar she's just going to get modkilled, right?
It's an extremely good idea.
How so?
It's a good idea because a person without an avatar will be immune from detection by the methods the hostess has given us. And that's terrible.
According to llama, asking questions about avatars is the only way that we can discover who is bad, thread interactions and vote counts be damned. This also looks like a comment from a player who doesn't know how the civilian role power works. However, this observation was made on Day 1, so no player would have more knowledge than another as to how it worked.
thellama73 wrote:Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I don't see much point. She is essentially not playing the game. If it stays like that, she is probably just getting replaced for being inactive, or modkilled. Sounds like a waste of a lynch.
She's not going to get modkilled, because Eloh doesn't do those things. She might get replaced, but that doesn't make her more likely to be good. It's only a waste of a lynch if she is not mafia. Right now, we can't find out whether she is mafia or not, because she has robbed us of our only way of doing so by not having an avatar. Seems like the best option to me.
Llama continues his Day 1 interactions with DDL. Good look for llama here. He points out the inaccuracy in DDL's comment, while still sticking to his own reads (if you call it that). The second half of the post doesn't really affect the read so much. Llama offers a more Syndicate-beneficial reason for lynching Missing Person.
thellama73 wrote:Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
I just think going after the inactives is a cheap way of making a vote. Because it's essentially a guess, and one that is more likely to get a townie lynched than otherwise. At least with active players it's possible to analyse their posts or something.
Baseless assertion, backed by zero evidence. Why is lynching an inactive more likely to get a townie than lynching an active player? Of course, lynching
any player is more likely to get a townie than a baddie, because there are more townies than baddies, but the idea that an inactive is less likely to be bad than anyone else is simply untrue.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
If she puts an avatar or gets replaced, we'll then be able to ask questions about her avatar. Problem solved.
I'm more suspicious of people who try to direct the game's attention into lynching inactives.
And voting for her until she puts up an avatar is a good way to incentivize the behavior I want. Lynching inactives is also a good way to have fewer inactives in this, and future games, which I like. If you think that makes me bad, vote for me, but don't pretend it is based on any kind of logic.
Llama says we have a 33% chance of lynching a baddie. Bad look for llama I think. He says there is a 4 / 12 chance that we lynch a baddie, when there are 12 civilians, not 12 total players.
thellama73 wrote:Roxy wrote:
thellama wrote:Baseless assertion, backed by zero evidence. Why is lynching an inactive more likely to get a townie than lynching an active player? Of course, lynching any player is more likely to get a townie than a baddie, because there are more townies than baddies, but the idea that an inactive is less likely to be bad than anyone else is simply untrue
Do you have proof to back up your certainty?
I don't need to, since I am not the one making a positive claim and that's not how burden of proof works, and it's also no longer relevant since Dragon explained what he meant, but sure, I'll play.
Elohcin wrote:
There 16 players in this speed game. 12 players are civilians and 4 players are Mafia.
The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3. Regarding the second part of my sentence, if if Missing Person had not yet checked in at the time, and her role was assigned randomly, then her odds of being bad are no better or worse than anyone else's. We would not expect any behavior to tip her hand, because a) there was no behavior to observe and b) she herself would not know her role yet (having not checked in.)
QED
Llama explains that there are still several players to check in. Quite the turnaround considering he was endorsing lynching inactives just a few hours before. 35 minutes later, llama turns around and says he's going to vote for Turnip Head, the only player who had not checked in yet (after being
doubly corrected by G-Man). Very bad look for llama.
thellama73 wrote:Guys, an awful lot of people haven't even checked in yet. Settle down.
thellama73 wrote:I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.
Here, llama responds to Ricochet's
massive case with this two-liner. In llama's defense, he was out of town for Fourth of July, so may not have been able to make a proper response. Still, Ricochet was killed Night 1, saving llama from having to give a proper address to the case.
thellama73 wrote:Great points by Ricochet. I like the way he is playing. The reason I ultimate didn't vote for MP (who I still think is a girl) is that his posts read extremely cig to me once he actually showed up. Too bad about TH though.
Llama votes for DDL Day 2. Not much to say about his vote, as it put DDL up 5-1 over Black Rock.
thellama73 wrote:Dragon is a smooth criminal. Down he goes.
Llama comes back from his vacation, says he's all caught up, and only addresses Spacedaisy (a "Maybe mafia") in his new rainbow list. No mention of the three "Probably Mafia" that he listed in this post, nor before this post, aside from Golden.
Also noteworthy, Missing Person has made his way into llama's "Probably Not Mafia" list.
thellama73 wrote:Hi all! Back from a holiday weekend and all caught up. Very happy Dragon is dead. He was, as I believe I said,a smooth criminal.
Here's my technicolor list of player evaluations. Spacedaisy is where she is because her vote for Golden would be madness for a Dragon teammate. I think Golden's Day 1 vote looks exceptionally bad in hindsight.
Probably Mafia
Black Rock
Golden
Hedgeowl
Maybe Mafia
spacedaisy
timmer
MetalMarsh89
Epignosis
Probably Not Mafia
fingersplints
Missing Person
nijuukyugou
Roxy
G-Man
thellama73
Llama's first mention of Black Rock. Considering BR is his number 1 mafia read, this post isn't very convincing.
thellama73 wrote:What do we make of Dragon's vote for Black Rock? Would it be clever of him to vote for a teammate with his dying breath to throw us off the scent? Or does that vote make her look better? I'm incluned to distrust it.
Llama calls out the mafia for being absent and unthoughtful. The absentness seems to match up with his Rainbow List. Convenient. Llama offers some thoughts on Black Rock and comments on Spacedaisy, indifferently. Llama also chose to comment on myself and Golden. He says he did a reread of both of us, but said little more than he doesn't suspect either of us. Considering the length of this post, there is not much going on. Llama is clearly pushing a lynch in the direction of Black Rock here.
thellama73 wrote:The G-Man kill has given me a lot to think about. I think we are dealing with a mostly absent, panicky mafia getting rid of someone who was on their trail. The Ricochet kill was smart, but after the loss of DDL, the G-Man kill was artless. I agree with Epi that the team was MIA on Day 2. Epi, for example, would never have allowed such a kill if he were mafia.
Spacedaisy defended DDL and pushed a Golden lynch.
Hedgeowl has a total of three, mostly off-topic posts, and would likely throw down a reflex NK.
Black Rock wrote:fingersplints wrote:thellama73 wrote:fingersplints wrote:thellama73 wrote:I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.
Why would that piss everyone off?
People hate when I vote for non-participants or people who "have not had the chance to defend themselves."
Turnip Head has been absent in several games though, so I think this is a different situation.
I agree and am also going to vote for Turnip Head.
What is BR agreeing with here? That she wants to piss people off? That people hate it when I vote for non-participants? Her vote is poorly explained. She goes on:
Black Rock wrote:Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Bummer. That was some really solid play you were making here, Ricochet. Hope I play again with you some time.
I'm reading through day 1 posts and BR's ones caught my attention. It feels to me her vote on TH was pretty oportunistic. She only agreed with what splints said then jumped on the wagon later in the phase, after waiting for two players to do it first. And did not say much more. I'm leaning mafia on her.
TBH it was opportunistic and a little frustration with TH atm. It was day 1 none of you really look that suspicious and so I voted for a non-player. He is a non-player and I don't think he would have ever showed up. I actually wasn't waiting for more people to do it. I didn't have to wait for other players to do it at all, I was already taking an easy way out.
Interesting little exchange with Dragon. She defended him earlier, saying "why are you focusing on Dragon?" I think BR looks bad.
Now, MM< because I promised:
He also gently pushed a Golden lynch, but other than that, he reads pretty genuine to me. I also feel better about Golden after rereading him, but am not ready to completely absolve him yet.
Again, llama fits the nightkill of G-man into his own definition of baddieness. Llama says the baddies are scared and disorganized. Epignosis offered a more accurate observation I believe. Epignosis said it made sense for the mafia to kill an analytical player. Ricochet Night 1, G-Man Night 2. The trend is short, but clear. Another trend I've noticed, both players to be nightkilled to this point both had gone after llama the night they were killed.
thellama73 wrote:fingersplints wrote:
Llama why do you think the kill of Gman was artless?
Because G-Man was one of the most active and productive players in terms of baddie hunting. It's always possible that the kill was a frame job, but I usually find thta such kills happen when the team is scared and simply trying to reduce the vote count against it.
"Mafia is running scared"? That's what he said after the logical nightkill of G-Man. Maybe I have my blinders on, but llama is looking worse and worse as this game goes on.
thellama73 wrote:Elohcin wrote:fingersplints has been put down by the mafia. It is now Day 4
My goodness what a boring choice. This mafia is running scared.
RIP Splints.
Llama finally makes a real mention of Hedgeowl. But this mention is hardly anything to sneeze at.
Also llama says that the baddies are not voting to save their members. Let's look at Black Rock's and Spacedaisy's votes. I'd look at Hedgeowl's too, llama's other top suspect, but she has not voted yet this game...
Anyway, Day 1, both Spacedaisy and Black Rock vote for Turnip Head to put him 4-3 over DDL. We don't know about Black Rock, but Spacedaisy, an obvious baddie, voted to save DDL.
Day 2, Spacedaisy voted for Golden and Black Rock missed the vote in a landslide DDL lynch. That's about as close to a save as could have happened.
Day 3, Black Rock voted Spacedaisy who flipped bad. Black Rock voted out of self-preservation, so one can't fault her for it, nor was there even a situation to go for a save. Spacedaisy missed the vote.
Day 4, Missing Person won in a landslide victory, so no save required. Anyway, Black Rock voted for llama.
Baddies are not voting to save their members? These are llama's top two suspects right?
thellama73 wrote:Black Rock wrote:I just got home from work, I can participate with you Llama.
Who are you looking at this lynch?
I'm really in a Hedgeowl sort of mood. I am super unimpressed with this mafia. They are not voting to save their members and their kills are lame. I think there is at least one inactive or barely active player among them.
Also, Hedgebaddie is always bad.
Llama says one of the people who wants him dead is likely mafia. This looks to me like another scenario to fit his Rainbow List that doesn't have any actual support to it.
thellama73 wrote:Three people want me dead. Likely only one of them is bad. I'm pretty sure it isn't Roxy, so that leaves BR and Hedgebaddie.
I actually feel a little better about Hedgebaddie since she started posting, but on the other hand she has participated for the first time ONLY after I straight up threatened to vote for her, which looks bad to me. Also, her name is a dead giveaway.
I still think Black Rock looks pretty bad too, so I will have to choose between one of them tomorrow.
Suddenly, llama wants to go after Golden again, even with BR and Hedgeowl still alive. It is good that he is revisiting a previous read. Brownie point for llama.
thellama73 wrote:Spacedaisy's comments about Golden are very interesting. When DDL was up for a lynch, she placed a protest vote on Golden. When she was up for a lynch, she suggested we look at Golden after her demise. This is some high-level distancing. Maybe the mafia are not as inept as I thought.
Llama goes after Golden with the most conviction he's had all game, even giving him an early vote. Well, llama's had conviction before, but he's hardly backed anything up with quotes and evidence before this.
thellama73 wrote:Meh, I decided that defensive voting is for cowards. If I get lynched, I want to go out in a blaze of glory, tilting ferociously at those lovely windmills.
I'm voting for Golden for three reasons.
1. The itiming of his Day 1 vote looked like an effort to protect DDL to me.
2. I believe Spacedaisy was engaging in high-level distancing when she attacked him. Her attacks came when either she or her teammate were in troble.
3. He expressed suspicion of me, but voted for MM anyway, early and a bit of a throwaway. I believe he did this because I am more suspected by the thread in general, and therefore more useful for a mafia member to keep around, and because it keeps his hands clean of my innocent blood should I actually get lynched.
Oh, and I almost forgot. A Golden lynch gives me
Mafia Bingo.
Addendum: I think llama looks bad. There's a large portion of his game that looks bad, and there is not enough good actions to counter that. Through my ISO's thus far, llama is definitely my strongest mafia read.
) I apologize to my fellow players and the almighty hostess for my behavior. I haven't even had a chance to read what I've missed (I've been moving furniture up three flights of stairs all weekend/blowing shit up for the Fourth) but I see Mr. Luffy has been caught. Most excellent. When I'm settled I'll catch up and check back in.
