The Syndicate

I love it!

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 6:30 pm Wowser... got rekt. Gg town.

Rough rand.

At least you didn't get swept!! (unlike me in the game on MU I just played).

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 6:33 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 5:59 pm POG vote on Day 3 pyxxy, I'm not sure we could've done it if you hadn't voted Mac there.

Way to go Sabi voting all three wolves and being obvious town Day 3.
I was obv town since D2 :P

You pushing me to open a day was the most anti-wolf Sabi thing ever.

Bussing Mac is something I've seen you do before, so even during N2 I wasn't sure, but you had a worldview and pushes ready to go to start the next day, which I thought was the difference.

Dennis wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 6:18 pm Pyxxy thank you for saving my life, only for me to get nightkilled anyways

Looks like your first chop will have to wait for another game.

Dig D4

I did intentionally not dig on Day 1. I very much read the rules, but wanted to try and hide the fact that I knew where the cop check was, and also make it less likely someone else dug it up on accident by holding my dig.

By holding my dig, it would leave one more hole available for everyone else and slightly decrease their chance of hitting a role ability.

Didn't work out quite how I wanted, but it was intentional.

I was Stanley, and I discovered that the cop check was in the hole SVS dug on Day 1, and thus we lost it when she died

POG vote on Day 3 pyxxy, I'm not sure we could've done it if you hadn't voted Mac there.

Way to go Sabi voting all three wolves and being obvious town Day 3.

Good game!!!

Did we do it?

Technically there are no hammers, the day ends when everyone has voted.

@lucy please come leave a legacy if you're town.

@DrWilgy @pyxxy just letting you know that lucy is now at 2 votes.

[VOTE: lucy] aubergine

Dig c4

Digging this hole for you @c4e5g3d5.

pyxxy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:28 pm oh Wilgz showed up finally? lmao the last wolf is him then, why wouldn't he just slank through another day and not vote again

(now that I've been snarky I'll go read the thread)

Why do you say that about Wilgy but not lucy?

I'm not going to vote yet, I'll wait and give other players a look (namely DrWilgy).

If anyone else has a candidate for wolf they think is more likely than lucy, or have reason to believe lucy is town, please share it.

Unfortunately, the only content lucy has really given this game has been around the leading wagons on Day 2 and 3, which in one case has proven to be W/V (Mac/Dennis), and in the other case has proven to be W/? (Neon/marmot).

On Day 2, she voted Dennis early, and mostly defended Mac when he became a counter-wagon.
On Day 3, she didn't vote, but defended both wagons when they were at 1-1.

There's plenty of evidence that lucy could be the last wolf.

Spoiler: show

lucy's handling of Neon on Day 4 was kinda similar. Lightly pushed that Neon/myself were v/v, but didn't she didn't do much else with the day.

w!lucy might've wanted to push attention off of her teammate thunderdoming me. v!lucy might've been too lazy/uninterested to do anything other then comment on the current wagons.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:58 pm Game is just such low energy tho.

I expect 400 more posts from you before EOD.

lucy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:34 pm i'm sheeping mac

lucy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:57 pm
Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:56 pm Mac hasn't even been solving
and? bro has a wife and kids

lucy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:28 pm mac is town cause i haven't the effort to do anything besides make the assumption which provides me with the most simple gamestate

lucy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:52 pm
Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:52 pmMac
ew

These posts all came when the VC was tied at 3-3.

lucy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:53 pm mac spewed him town

This post came just after, with the same vote count, and it's a bit of a reversal that I can't make much sense of (and also a mildly tmi post).

@lucy why did your opinion on Mac/Dennis switch here?

I'm tempted to just lock a vote in on lucy.

I know she's burnt out and that's contributed to her activity this game, but she also defended both Mac and Neon and it's not a stretch at all to call her a possible teammate.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:52 pm Did anyone ever say who shot the extra shot?

pyxxy claimed it yesterday.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:49 pmuwu

Post #30,000 hype!!!

Oooh good call, I didn't realize it was a next-day specific power.

Thank goodness, because vote-manipulation roles shouldn't exist in lylo imo.

Sabi, how confident are you that pyxxy is town?

w!Sabi wouldn't kill Sean imo. They had essentially the same vote record, and if Sabi was going to lylo, they'd want Sean around as well, and Sean was never going to chop them.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:25 pm
pyxxy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:31 pm oh also uh I dug up the double vote last night so I've got 2x vote power today

any chance that someone used the cop check last night and we can clear another person besides Sabi?
So in the situation where you are wolf, you can pretty much always cause a tie if town isn't unanimous.

Don't like that.

Does wolf Pyxxy just lie here? Does wolf Pyxxy state this?

Maybe not. Idk this makes me think it's just gotta be Lucy.

The mechanically optimal play is to chop pyxxy today if they're POE, because if we don't and the is a wolf, he can do exactly what you say, guarantee at least a tied vote in LYLO and a 50/50 chance at a W.

From my POV, I just don't know if he's quite that POE.

The other thing that's weird is that pyxxy has found two abilites while the rest of the game has found zero. The odds of that are so low...

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:02 pm It's either Wilgz or Lucy

@Marmot @pyxxy

Who to go firat

I'm fine with this tbh.

I think w!pyxxy would've killed someone other than Sean last night (like probably me or you since we'd been pushing him the most of anyone).

The one thing that gives me pause is that if pyxxy is the wolf, he does have the double-vote, which would be a danger in lylo, but Wilgy and lucy have higher equity imo.

I'm busy the rest of the day and probably can't check in again

pyxxy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:14 am
Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 4:32 am My next question is the one you said you'd respond to after you heard from neon
I'm back. I went off to re-read SOD today (D3) for like the 4th time.

Your case against Neon is solid. Her vote on you really comes out of nowhere and I have to assume is based on truth; she felt the heat and wanted to try to direct the conversation. It seems like locked votes can have a strong effect on what people consider possible. Including yourself, Marmot.

Which is why my initial read of the situation was that it is Town v Town.

Because here I am, SOD D3 and my solve was wrong so my read on you has reset. My experience with Neon has been multiple miskills + not being able to read her + her being reasonably upset about getting killed by weak reads and thread momentum.

But your case is solid. Neon is in my POE. I guess I'm just trying to figure out who that pairs Neon with. And why was wolf Neon so cared of a Seanzie who hasn't effectively pushed a wagon yet this game?

I'm also trying to understand why you've been framing the day as you vs Neon. No other choices allowed. You don't think you could both be town?

Then again, somehow you think I'm not town.

There's just something that doesn't make sense to me yet. I'm working on it. I'm hoping Wilgy will help me out. Speaking of Wilgy...

I didn't say that no other choices around. I said that given the vote count, players should start by trying to solve between Neon/myself first, then work from there. If there is a wolf between the two of us, then a wolf wagon already has one vote, and that's the optimal place to follow. If you do indeed think we're v/v, then yes please vote elsewhere. Just know that if that world is correct, then the other three town have to vote together and correctly in order to chop a wolf, and even then, the wolves could technically still pile on myself/Neon to force a tie.

I don't know if I'm explaining myself very well, but starting a new wagon in this situation must be done carefully and with coordination, otherwise it leaves the wolf(s) too much room to play with.

We also don't know who has the double-vote or if it's been used already.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 11:44 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:28 pm Somebody tell me what to think.
What do you think about pyxxy's Day 3?

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:47 am Nobody answered me.

I did ask you a question :curtain:

Oh and pyxxy can you talk about why you picked fingersplints for the vig if you haven't already? I think it was a fine choice, just curious.

My next question is the one you said you'd respond to after you heard from neon

Pyxxy/neon might just be the wolf team.

In a situation where neon and myself have crossed votes. Pyxxy doesn't seem to want to entertain a world where neon could be a wolf, and doesn't seem to want to address anything I've posted except for one post he's found suspicious.

That's what I'm seeing anyway

@pyxxy do you think a w!neon world exists?

Wow, I'm almost at 30,000 posts, that's ridiculous.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:28 pm Somebody tell me what to think.

What do you think about pyxxy's Day 3?

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 11:42 pm @pyxxy what do you think of the cases I've presented on Neon thus far?

@pyxxy

@pyxxy what do you think of the cases I've presented on Neon thus far?

I wasn't trying to convince fingersplints to vote Dennis, my point was that if fingersplints got the rest of the votes, she could still vote Dennis to tie the wagons, and that was if she got the rest of the votes.

I did leave that detail out of that post it appears, but that's the idea I was trying to get across. Dennis had more votes that Mac, so he was the obvious choice for self-preservation for her.

pyxxy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 11:05 pm If I were to make a case against Marmot, it would be this:

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:14 pm Mac and Dennis are really the only viable chops at this point.

If fingersplints Dennis, her wagon could technically still tie his, but it's a 50/50

I don't like this day.
This is a sus Marmot post.

Day 2 vote tracking in spoiler:
Spoiler: show
Day 2 votes:

Neon - Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:59 pm - [VOTE: DENNIS] aubergine dig d6 and a3
1 Dennis

lucy - Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:36 pm - [VOTE: DENNIS] aubergine dig e4 e3
2 Dennis

Mac - Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:21 am - [VOTE: DENNIS] aubergine (ed note: did not dig aka gets two random holes)
3 Dennis

Sabi - Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:05 pm - Vote: mac Augurgine A4
3 Dennis 1 Mac

Dennis - Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:22 pm - [VOTE: MAC] aubergine dig F1
3 Dennis 2 Mac

DrWilgy - Wed Jan 18, 2023 3:03 pm - [VOTE: FINGERSPLINTS ] aubergine dig c2
3 Dennis 2 Mac 1 fingersplints

Marmot's post occurs here. Seanzie, Marmot, pyxxy, and fingersplints still had yet to vote at this point.

Seanzie - Wed Jan 18, 2023 5:41 pm - [VOTE: MACDOUGAL] aubergine Dig C3
3 Dennis 3 Mac 1 fingersplints

Marmot - Wed Jan 18, 2023 6:43 pm - [VOTE: DENNIS] aubergine Dig B2, B3
4 Dennis 3 Mac 1 fingersplints

pyxxy - Wed Jan 18, 2023 7:05 pm - [VOTE: MACDOUGAL] aubergine dig E2
4 Dennis 4 Mac 1 fingersplints

did not vote:
fingersplints
Seanzie, Marmot, pyxxy, and fingersplints still had votes at this point. Totals were: 3 Dennis 2 Mac 1 fingersplints

This post is trying to pocket/push fingersplints into voting Dennis which I assume would have been followed by either Marmot acquiescing and also voting Dennis or Marmot holding to see if they can vote off wagon or safely vote Mac without actually killing Mac.

No it isn't.

pyxxy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:47 pm it would be really funny if the solve was wilgy/sabi, with sabi pocketing marmot and neon just freaking out

@Sabiplz would you be offended if I pushed your wagon today? you keep saying you want to be NK'd anyway, this would be even faster

Do you think sabi is a wolf?

I have a project I need to finish today, so I won't be around much.

pyxxy has been the quitest thus far today, which is a little concerning to me. @pyxxy voting Mac when you did basically townclears you in my eyes, but what does your solve look like now?

Given the vc, I would encourage people to at least solve between Neon/myself to start with. If you think that we're both town and want to look elsewhere, fine. But finding another viable wagon will be harder to get over than one of us atm.

Neon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:53 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:44 pm
Neon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:38 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:25 pm
Neon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:19 pm [VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

Dig C1

***SIPPPPPPPPP***
You haven't mentioned me this entire game, can you talk about this vote?
Tbf I've barely mentioned anyone
I know, but I still wanna know why you placed it.
If I said self pres would you believe me?

I think it's always me or you today and I know I'm town.

Also I think that one of us was just wrong because we are woof and the other is wrong cause they suck at Mafia (that one is me)

I don't think I would, but I also don't think I've seen a self-prez vote as the first vote of the day before.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:26 pmnothing?

I ate dinner, that's something.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:04 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:50 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:48 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:46 pm What in Mac's ISO made you go "wow he's a wolf"?
Bareft's post from Cartomancy.
I don't follow.
Quote from another game in a spoiler to make it clear this is NOT FROM THIS GAME:
Spoiler: show
Bereft wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 7:35 pm B. If you hadn't noticed I have Creature as solid town, falcon as lean town, and Porscha as town, and Mac/SPF may have some deviations here but none of us are put bulldozing these players.
C. Actually I simply think town got off to a horrible start D1. I say this from the simple fact of the Baudib's wagon existence. I know you don't agree that Baudib was obvious town but as far as I'm concerned there was at minimum some number of town pursuing things that I would label inadvisable and there were definitely tensions that grew from the fact that Alison/Mac/Lucy/Baudib were telling people to "shut up and stop doing stupid things because we said so", and so these people never got around the fact that they think Mac's controlling the game in an evil direction simply from the fact he told them to stop wagoning their pet scumreads. That's a very nice story and all, but my point is that I don't actually current think you need that much control over the game to get a successful Moon use to cause an Alison chop. The recipe was right there, in D1, no one trusted Alison, and you want to know who pushed Alison and added to the boiling pot? Spoiler alert, its some of the people I'm suspecting.

The obvious counterargument is "but what about Mac's D2, he told everyone to vote for Alison for however long" to which I will simply state that I understand the concern but actually here's how to read Mac, so we segue into:

A. The first point about reading Mac, is that you can get a good idea just entirely based on Mac's stated reads, not their accuracy, but his stated explanations and read development. Mac's great at spinning BS and bussing, but the point is that he's not great at faking reasonable reads or for that matter reevaluating. I'm not going to bother explaining why I think Mac's D1 reads are reasonable since you obviously don't think they are and I will only come off as even more a snob. However, Mac's ... breakdown D2 is as far as I'm concerned a v!Mac. Do you think w!Mac bothers faking vulnerability? Not well, not in any way thats grounded. He stated clearly why he suddenly pivoted onto Alison, and thats because of a breakdown in confidence of worldview. Why was there a breadown in confidence of worldview? Because certain of his scumreads were showing town entitlement, these were Falcon and (Dr.Wilgy? I cant remember and I might be biased) and he had never expressed townreading Alison that confidently. Then he switches to actually I change my mind, I haven't a clue, and actually don't kill Alison. This is a massive amount of flexibility and whether you like it or not, its not easy to pull of convincingly as wolf, nor does it give him any benefit of wolf when everyone will be going "bro wtf was that". I am not going to talk about Mac's D3 and attempt to justify that its genuine frustration on Mac's part, but that is what I think.

In any case, it is much easier for me to say "oh I townread Mac", because I can follow basically all of his stated thought processes while others have not.

X. I strongly believe in my own ability to read Mac to speculate on the w/w nature of the interactions you cited. Besides the fact that I think most preflip claimed w/w interactions are in general weak, I do think SPF could have come to a similar assessment as I have, and this is just based on SPF being a stronger player and they've already echoed my general thrust that the reason Mac is town is that "actually Mac is polarized". And lastly, the point where Mac doubles around and asks SPF "so why don't you scumread me" is emblematic of Mac's townplay in that he will ask pointed questions out of the blue to the people he townreads for paranoia reasons. Theoretically SPF can be a wolf in all of this but these are not interactions w/w with Mac. Mac as a wolf would've likely theatred more with SPF as a partner, this interaction is pretty tame.

Why did I do this to myself.

This was on my mind at the time I skimmed Mac's ISO and I don't remember anything specific in the ISO that I didn't like, more just the general feeling of flatness, coupled with just having spoken in length to Bereft about Mac possibly being polarized. I was not confident, but I thought he was mafia.

Hmmm ok,

That's what I saw too, but I couldn't pull the trigger.

You should've showed me this yesterday.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:48 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:46 pm What in Mac's ISO made you go "wow he's a wolf"?
Bareft's post from Cartomancy.

I don't follow.

What in Mac's ISO made you go "wow he's a wolf"?

Neon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:38 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:25 pm
Neon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:19 pm [VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

Dig C1

***SIPPPPPPPPP***
You haven't mentioned me this entire game, can you talk about this vote?
Tbf I've barely mentioned anyone

I know, but I still wanna know why you placed it.

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