The Syndicate

I'm not really sure I understand the new meta where people ignore evidence in favor of solely focusing on vibes but I still think DDL deserves a thorough looking at.

Voting for DDL, my only hope for survival is Spacedaisy or Jack

I've got an hour, so I'd like to do what I can to help the cause until then.

I don't have a positive read on Sig but he's been flying under the radar and he needs to be taken seriously.

I think the fact that Dunya was murdered is telling, I think whoever chose to kill her was probably online during the timeframe that we we're having the conversation during the night phase a couple hours before the night post came up, it must have been done because of that, it's too much of a coincidence otherwise.

It's strange that LC was killed but not SD since they were equally responsible for MP's lynch. Of course maybe the mafia doesn't see SD as a threat?

In general I just don't trust speedchuck in this game. I think he uses manipulative wording to make himself seem civvie. There's a lot of posturing and I don't trust it.

Um... What else....

You're framing it as if I'm *trying* to die. I'm just accepting that it's happening and putting faith in the other civvies that they'll figure things out.

The jailer will have just as much time to do their job regardless of whether or not a lynch happens

you have such an overly exaggerated civvie patriotism about you speedchuck, it's weird.

Or I guess there's the 4th option where we use the no lynch option

Like that was a really great 2 page essay but think about the ways this can go. Think about the fact that I am the only person trying to prove my innocence right now.

1. I successfully keep myself from getting lynched but another civvie dies. Result, I probably get lynched the next day anyways, right? That's two lynches wasted. This only benefits baddies.

2. I somehow singlehandedly figure out which one of you is a baddie and get you lynched, on my own because everyone else is either decided or gone. This is less likely than number 1. Definitely the ideal scenario but like... Seriously? Unlikely.

3. The third and most likely option is that I get lynched and die and day 5's day period gets taken seriously but even if it doesn't, that's still two more chances to kill a baddie than you would have had otherwise.

No offense.

I think that's a naive viewpoint. I'm looking at the big picture.

I don't want to die, but I'd rather get lynched than be used as a distraction tool for the mafia.

Look, I've been in situations like this before, speedchuck. There's enough circumstantial evidence against me enough cloudiness in the water otherwise that if I don't get lynched now then we're likely to lynch a good pirate and that leads to the whole "day 5 guess we we're wrong, let's try lynching Kyle again" thing, and by that point the game is already lost.

The player I feel the most inclined to lynch right now is DDL, I think the evidence against him is significant and I know he had to go camping or something like that but I don't like that he hasn't posted more since MP's death.

Otherwise I think we have a 50-50 shot with the replacements, at least probably

Read through her posts from the start and tell me that she would throw her own husband under the bus like that? I mean... I guess it's possible. But why would it be advantageous? What's the gain from that?

If it we're between Sig and SD I guess I'd say Sig but I also don't really like that you're the one presenting this choice to me because I don't have any reason to believe that you're not a mutineer.

for the rest of game to move forwardly in a positive manner. Like I'm cool with dying. With the current thread atmosphere and after dunya got killed it was pretty much gauranteed result. I get that I haven't played the best and like... to be frank, circumstantial evidence doesn't look the best right now for me. If I weren't me I'd probably vote for me too.

Most of the top posters, movers and shakers are already dead, the ones that are still alive are preoccupied with life stuff, and that's what worries me.

A mafia endgame with low-radar flying baddies and absent/complacent civvies isn't a game where the good guys win.

Dunyas points about me have already been addressed....

Hey look, guys? Seriously, if you're going to vote for me saying "I liked Dunyas points" it's important to me that you actually explain the points. Like do some reading or whatever. If I have to die I want it to at least make it easier for the rest of the

Hey quick question is anyone still playing this game?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:44 am
sig wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:05 am I'm going to go for Kyle right now, I think Dunya's post about him, seeing how she was the watcher holds some weight. However I'll try to pop in during the day tomorrow and check in.
i knew someone would say something like this

dunya changed her mind about me midgame, which, if the situation were that which i were a baddie and she'd targeted me with watching then she wouldn't have changed her mind at all.

she began suspecting me again after the quin lynch and brought it up during that night, before the dawn of the next day.

in short there's no way dunya's suspecting me was a result of her watcher abilities

Okay actually turns out i was thinking of Quin. dunya has suspected me from the start, but i have to think that if she thought she had information on me she would have at least pushed for my lynch a lot harder than she did. that's not the situation we have before us. dunya's suspicion of me was purely based on in thread feelings and pings which she was wrong about.

sig wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:05 am I'm going to go for Kyle right now, I think Dunya's post about him, seeing how she was the watcher holds some weight. However I'll try to pop in during the day tomorrow and check in.

i knew someone would say something like this

dunya changed her mind about me midgame, which, if the situation were that which i were a baddie and she'd targeted me with watching then she wouldn't have changed her mind at all.

she began suspecting me again after the quin lynch and brought it up during that night, before the dawn of the next day.

in short there's no way dunya's suspecting me was a result of her watcher abilities

Which evidence?

I mean to ask if you meant to say that DDL is one of your suspects but also that you think he's probably good?

that's not even what I asked

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:05 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:03 pm Speedchuck can I get your current reads on DDL and Sig?
Town, and eh.

I provided a rainbow like a page ago.

I thought jailkeeper was something completely different. Some role that makes people vanish for a day.

You said you had good vibes about DDL but also that he was probably a remaining mafia

DDL, can I get your current reads on speedchuck and Sig?

Sig can I get your current reads on speedchuck and DDL?

Speedchuck can I get your current reads on DDL and Sig?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:10 am
dunya wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:30 pm wait what. Kyle is DDL's son in rl?
Whrere in nine hells this this come from?

Come on, Dad. Why are you always so embarrassed of me?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:58 pm speedchuck

dunya
Dragon D. Luffy
sig
Spacedaisy
Jackofhearts2005
Kylemii
NewTraditionalist

Probably. Lesse.

We have 8 players left, 7 tomorrow (unless doctors/roleblockers pull through). 2 are scum. I could definitely see it being Kyle and a former inactive. I feel like I can basically rule out Dunya at this point. No pings there. Still feel really good about DDL, tinfoil vote shenannigans aside.

So my bet for remaining scum are:
Kyle, spacedaisy, sig, or DDL
and an inactive.

linki: depends on when I hypothetically voted
I can't be absolute unless given specific parameters. After all, I know what the result is.
hmmm
Probably quin. Only NT if I had a strong gutread in the moment.

hey wait?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:12 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:06 pm Kylemii
2 votes for MP
none by MP
Be real. You just posted a little vote analysis to bring attention to this. No worries. I dig it.

Where is your vote going today? What options are you considering?

Lol I'm actually doing it for my own benefit. I assumed we'd be searching for the final mafiosa today, instead of the final 2 so I need to clean the lens I've been viewing this game through.

At this moment I'm considering basically everyone to varying degrees.

Spacedaisy is I think, the least likely connected to MP, barring a really hardcore bussing situation which I think is pretty unlikely, though kind of entertaining to think about.

You (speedchuck) have the same or similar credit except with less calling out on MP, I think a teamed speedchuck preemptively bussing MP when it became clear his goose was cooked is technically a possibility

Sig is a wildcard, he didn't vote for MP but he also didn't vote to save MP, other than his vote for Quin his votes have been unrelated to the top lynch vote getters. Idk what that says about him having never played with him before everything about him is neutral

DDL doesn't look great vote-wise other than MP's vote against him day 1, DDL was one of MP's ISO's, I think his second to last before he went to change his vote to DrWilgy for self preservation, he was all over the place but a case could be made for last minute MP bus toss strategy against which he dumped as soon as the opportunity to save them both by voting for Wilgy came up. I would actually appreciate others reviewing the interactions between MP and DDL from day 1 if you wouldn't mind

Jack and cBob, I'm going to reserve judgement on for now but one of them being part of the baddie final 2 is not off the table

analyzing the first two polls at face value with minor assistance from what I can remember about each players behaviors from day 1 and 2; by Kyle

Dragon D Luffy
voted for MP's closest competitor twice
was voted for by MP during the 3 way tie with those two and Wilgy, though MP meant to move his vote to Wilgy last minute

colonialbob
Null

Kylemii
2 votes for MP
none by MP

sig
no votes for MP
also no votes that could have been conceivably used to save MP

Spacedaisy
day 1 voted for DDL during the 3 way tie, day 2 voted for MP early in the day

Jackofhearts2005
Null

speedchuck
voted Wilgy day one during the 3 way tie, voted early to lynch MP similar situation to SD

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:06 pm This be the final poll. All votes cast after this are void:
Spoiler: show

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Nov 05, 2017 3:58 pm
Spoiler: show

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:12 pmDay 3 poll:[/color][/b]
Spoiler: show

reposting these for ease of reference

Does anyone have a link to an explanation on how the role matrix works?

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:31 pm @Kylemii are you really DDL's son???

No lol not really. Jack took a joke I made somewhere else seriously. I wanted to see how far I could take it.

[mention]dunya[/mention] i wanna be clear, I do fully realize that thinking baddies would screw up so obviously was maybe a little bit optimistic.

my hope is just that you'll understand where I was coming from

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:53 pm I know. The total disconnect is a form of condemnation as well. Are you getting that?
Two scum wouldn't leave any trails behind to question. That is a huge question mark. I don't buy it. At least not with two active participants. If we're talking about 2 non-posters, then it's a different story.

I do get that, but that's exactly what makes it is a valid desperation strategy.

If you've got 2/3 of your team in the cross-hairs and an hour to fix it, possibly without having caught up to the thread, that's when you pull out the desperation plays like commandeering the lynch towards a non-poster. If things work out you're protected by the "there's no way MP would do that if he was bad" thing.

I thought MP was bad specifically because of his connection to Quin, I just turned out to be right for the wrong reasons.

Your way of thinking turned out to be correct but that doesn't make my way of thinking any less reasonable given the information provided for us.

I don't think I ever said anything positive about Dr. Wilgy.

What's your question?

dunya can you let me know what you meant by the thing about DrWilgy?

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:47 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:44 pm Why did you think MP Quin was either or?
Because of the voting patterns and total disconnect from each other. When one mafia is totally sinking, the others sink him down, not dance ballet around him. Quin and MP aren't beginners in this, they wouldn't condemn themselves so openly and easily.

but they didn't condemn each other that was the entire point, they went out of their way to not condemn each other

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:38 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:30 pm You applauded Wilgy's rainbow reads, so Day 1 reads are not uncommon to you.
What? Please explain this entire sentence

[mention]dunya[/mention]
thank you

either/or

Why did you think MP Quin was either or?

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:30 pm You applauded Wilgy's rainbow reads, so Day 1 reads are not uncommon to you.

What? Please explain this entire sentence

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:30 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:54 pm Expecting 1 or 1.5 on day one is insane. A 1 would require irrefutable evidence otherwise what's the point of having that part of the scale
why? Why are you so worried to just throw it out there on day 1? Pot stirring. Testing waters. Are you scared to garner a negative reaction? You applauded Wilgy's rainbow reads, so Day 1 reads are not uncommon to you.

No, I'm just not that into saying things for no reason? It's irresponsible.

Can you answer the question I asked you about Quin?

hahaha wait what

yes that is correct Dragon D Luffy is my actual dad, my real life paternal father figure, genetically and also legally speaking

I'm not really cool with the new trend of suspecting me that's suddenly opened back up? I had some early game awkwardness getting back into the groove of mafia and also getting to know you all a little bit, sure. But....

I also kept my vote on MP during the late stages of day 1 to keep him talking which ultimately led to a three way tie which included him. I voted for MP again on day 2 because of the apparent connection between Quin and him that seemed to have been revealed with the day 1 lynch. I messed up with Quin sure, but I felt confident enough that he was bad because of the MP thing in addition to his previous behavior that I felt okay leaving a vote on him and coming back before the lynch was over to see if anything had come up.

Hey Dunya since you're here and we're talking, can I please ask you what made you change your mind about Quin?

it was day 1 of the game and also day 1 of my return to mafia, AND day 1 of playing with over half of you, are you really expecting me to have been able to jump in with confident reads on complete strangers?

Expecting 1 or 1.5 on day one is insane. A 1 would require irrefutable evidence otherwise what's the point of having that part of the scale

There was no backtracking, I literally explained the scale right there in the post you quoted

Speedchuck

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:17 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 4:39 pm alright. it's business time. 1 - 5, 5 being definitely good, 1 being definitely bad, and 3 being average.

DDL: 2.5
Most of his posts are about game mechanics, he notes to MP that he was lacking baddie reads even though he'd provided none himself, voted sig for asking the cop to play recklessly proactively... just generally ping-y. Like it's mostly gut feel and maybe it's just how he is regularly but there's a definite general pingy-ness there for me. I had him with a lower score before Speedchuck's point about nosebops, i can see how the same tactic could be used as a townie to stir the pot and open up discussion

Dr. Wilgy: ???
LIterally has only posted emoticons? is this normal for Wilgy?

Dunya: 3.5
My gut feel on her is good. Her posts read authentic to me. It's not much more than gut.

Long Con: 3.25
Very thorough and generally positive influence on the thread. He'd be higher but i believe he's very well capable of smoke-screening as a baddie.

MP: 3
he has a lot of posts because of the 1 quote per post thing he did. he's doing work and making shit happen but there's not enough there to sway me either way on him.

NewTraditionist: Null
Only post is about the day 0 vote. Please speak up.

Quin: 2.75
Uneasy but nothing concrete. they say a lot without saying much. throwing out "townie points" is.... i just don't trust that at all. i don't trust that metric

sig: 3.25
actually reads kind of civ to me??? i get where people are coming from with the copclaim suggestion thing but the thing is, he's right. it's mathematically the best choice in a vacuum. other variables exist as well if the cop can reliably wait a cycle and possibly catch a second badboy then like... that's a different matter.

Spacedaisy: 2.5
She's one of the 4 players with only 1 post but she's different in that i usually expect her to be more active than this. she's been around and posting in other places here. I wouldn't vote her over it because i don't think she'd use inactivity as a baddiestrat, but i guess what i'm saying is, hey spacedaisy, come plaaaaay with us. in this space we've made.

Spankgangsta: Null
he's newer, right? come plaaaaaayyyyyyyyy. with us. come out and plaaaaaaaaay

Speedchuck: 3.5
very blunt. I think good? i disagree with some/most of the stuff he says but his posts read as a townie who is trying hard

I see that my reads on Sig and DDL aren't concurrent with the rest of the thread so i'm going to review those two as well as LC
Didn't like this post at all. A townie has no problem at least naming 1 or 2 suspects. MP couldn't pinpoint one this game as scum. Kyle went and basically said everyone was fine and dandy. Reads too much of "I am giving helpful reads and blending in" without actually offering much. Didn't want to cause any backlash from anyone. I consider that a very big mafia read. Townie's don't give two shits who they piss off because they have nothing to hide.

I already explained that the scale was 1-5. In this post I listed Quin, Daisy, and DDL as suspects.

You made the same mistake here as.... Was it Speedchuck or MP?

I think we should do another GTH reading thing next time we have enough people around

having reads is fine

but saying "if i die, do this" puts us both in danger and I'm not really cool with that

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:43 pmIf I am killed tonight, please investigate Kylemii more and one of the "inactives", now Jack and NewTraditionalist.

Please don't say things like that. Phrases like that give the mafia social tools to work with

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:37 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:58 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:52 pm @Kylemii

Why did you vote for Quin?
The same reason I voted for MP. I suspected they were teammates because of how the day 1 lynch went.

MP was so frazzled during the times he was here I guess I thought he might have made a mistake as big as that, now it kind of seems stupid.
were you not at all moved to change it to a tie between quin and someone who hasn't contributed anything to the game whatsoever?

I put my vote on Quin for pressure purposes and left to watch season 4 of Weeds, i wanted to return an hour before the lynch deadline to read over everything and reconsider things but I got screwed up by the forum's daylight savings time settings making the poll say that day ended at 5pm instead of 4pm.

I'm not certain I would have changed my vote if I had been there though.

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