The Syndicate

like even if mafia had secret powers relating to misdirection wouldn't they still be subject to the mechanic of movement speed?

flyer

sig wrote: ↑Sat Mar 17, 2018 6:10 pmAssuming they don't have special powers, than it brings me back to my point that Nutella must be mafia since I was redirected Night 2 and only another flier could've done that.

............. you're right

I remember giving up on that point because someone (ddl?) claimed to have misdirected Quin's misdirection but.... Nutella is actually the only flower that could misdirect you at all

mafia permutations*

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:11 pm People I'm very confident being town:
Me
Kites
Kenway

So my views:
If RDW is mafia, his partner is Sig or Kyle
If RDW is town, mafia is 2 of Sig, Kyle, speedunya, nutella (with the killer guaranteed to be one of the first 3)

I also believe Kyle is town. That means Sig/RDW, Sig/speedunya, and Sig/nutella are my most plausible w/w pairings.

do you see any magic permutations where sig isn't mafia

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:47 am So if RDW is mafia, that leaves Sig or Kyle.

If RDW is town, Sig, Kyle, and/or speedunya.

(This assumes Kenway and I are telling the truth)

plz explain this

rundontwalk wrote: ↑Sat Mar 17, 2018 12:15 pmCbob is more obviously scum.

explain why

Kites wrote: ↑Sat Mar 17, 2018 1:41 amall our moves were there for mafia to read so if there was a way to screw it up, it was done

well the thing is we knew there was a high probability that thr plan would get fucked up, but the manner of fucking would reveal something about mafia team composition based on whether gwil received a fail message. him dying means the mafia might not have had to do anything at all since he wouldn't be able to report on his failure or not failure post mortem

if a horse rider or flier killed gwilly, he would die before doing his reverse doctor action, right?

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] ?

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] you've revealed the alignments of your early thief checks but did you ever reveal any specific nationalities?

we uh..... we don't actually know anything for sure.

it looks like my power didn't fail. if something was done to screw with gwilikers targeting then then we can't know for sure if it was something that would trigger a "your power failed" pm because he died.

that is actually..... hmmm

that's bad

unless I'm missing something

yeah, there isn't a permutation of events tonight where we won't at least learn something. regardless of whether it's related to rdw or not

mafia has 2 members left, one of them will probably kill tonight, and the other will probably use a power to mess with this plan, if they have one. if they don't, then cool. if they do then that still helps us narrow down which player it could have been that stopped or redirected the thing.

plan doesn't work and someone involved gets a power failed message then that implicates cbob, plan fails with no power fail message then that implicates nutella or kenway.

i guess technically if rdw doesn't die then we won't really know for sure if it was cus the plan worked and rdw is civ or if the plan didnt work and kenway or Nutella messed with the result, but it will help us narrow things down in the future, since the only players who can make the plan fail without murder or fail PMs are Nutella or kenway

rundontwalk wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:09 pm How likely is it scum would have two players with double lives?

.....equally likely as any other set of two roles?

you keep bringing this up like it's a sensible argument but your role was chosen by sig, and your promotion choice was made by you. Jack had no control over the game balance after the draft started, so there's no reason why two players with two lives couldn't be on the same team.

rundontwalk wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:04 pm I'm reading this thread and Benny Hill music should be in background. Kill me IDC. I'm not scum tho.

you'll only die if you're scum so you only need to be nervous if you're mafia

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:54 pm I don’t think I can. My role doesn’t specify but it’s not in the spirit of Fire Emblem.

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:55 pm Actually the role says light magic and stave wielding, but the doctor is my only targeting night action so maybe I can.

this has bugged me a little too, i asked about it early on and didn't receive an answer. i can cast elfire or mend and it would make sense if those types were locked into their realistic spell types. but none of my spells are light magic and it's still an option for me. i've just kept myself on anime magic since there have never been any dark magic targeting powers

[mention]gwilikers6[/mention]if it's possible, please use light magic tonight so I may have a 25% chance of self-guiding against you, slightly reducing the risk of blocks, jailkeeps, and misdirection fucking with our shit.

Kites wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:00 pm @Kylemii promoted nutella misdirects every night

ahhh

wait. fuck. does anime magic beat light magic? are you using staves now? how does this work?

the plan has expanded a little bit to the point that I don't totally understand it, but I think I understand my role in it at least?

[mention]gwilikers6[/mention] you are a killer with a smart bullet tonight, please do your best. I think the publically suggested idea is to target rdw, but mathematically speaking targetting anyone that hasn't been cleared would be helpful, so follow your heart or w/e.

[mention]Kites[/mention] Nutella doesn't misdirect tonight, and sig is a killer so his interference would be super obvious. I guess either of us would be a valid target, as long as you don't reveal it in the thread so the mafia has to guess.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:06 am If the RDW plan fails can we assume scum has a misdirector?

well....

or a doctor, jailkeeper, a role blocker, or a mage or a ah.... killer......

.............

so basically any of the roles belonging to the players we've narrowed it down to have potential to ruin this plan if they have motive to, other than rdw.... probably. :/

it turns out this is a really bad plan, actually, with like a 120% chance of failure. but at the very least, the exact method of failure could be telling?

if it seems like a waste of resources then we can do something else, but clearing just even a few more people wins us the game

also requires gwilikers' participation I guess but he'll probably be down

well okay I guess there's no use in not being transparent. since gwilikers can doctor and I can also doctor a little and also we've got two flippy mage guys we can configure things to either clear or kill rdw tonight. it's not great cus it has to be partially coordinated out in the open and is naturally subject to fuckery but overall it's decent

that said, it's only an average plan at best, but I can clear or . if y'all have any better ideas then go for it. I won't be here for the last 3 hours of the phase, do your best love you

[VOTE: rundontwalk] aubergine

i have a plan

rdw is also still a possibility but it's a huge risk to deal with him at this point with 2 lives. if we go for him and we're wrong then we only get 1 more chance to get it right

unless..... hmm......

you're right. civNutella could have opened up the gates by misdirecting kites independently of a mafsig chosing to kill sprityo.

however, both nut and sig being mafia at once seems unlikely to me since Nutella revealing that she MDed kites, regardless of whether that was a truth or a lie only serves to re-implicste both her and sig, without any real benefit

alright

the way i see it only 5 players could have done the murder last night.

cbob could only have done it if kenway is his partner

sig could only have done it if Nutella is his partner. or if Nutella isn't his partner? I'm a little confused about the implications of Nutella possibly lying about her target, but whether or not Nutella lied effects sig's ability to have killed. also to be considered, Nutella lying about a kite target would only implicate her and sig when they would have both been cleared so probably not w/w. sorry rambling

then we have rdw, kenway, and nutella

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:54 am Kylemii what do you think about the argument that if nutella was mafia they wouldn't habe killed rabbit8 n1 because mafia would've been safe from the Pegasus kill, and perhaps could've gotten it to fire against town?

(Not my argument originally, I don't remember who brought it up after rabbit died, but I find it reasonably compelling)

i actually forgot about that, but I wasn't particularly compelled by it when LC used that as a defense either. I think people put too much stock in the pegasus kill's potential. if Nutella should be cleared it should be for reasons other than that one, I think.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:31 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:30 am Who's most likely to have killed sprit? I think that's the best way to vote this phase.

why is that the best way to vote?

wait, sorry yes. PoE.

but that still narrows us down to the sig nutella kenway rdw group right?

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:30 am Who's most likely to have killed sprit? I think that's the best way to vote this phase.

why is that the best way to vote?

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:38 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:51 am gwilikers i think is? confirmed by the fact that he seemed to have had the monk power when he snooped on sig's pm that one night. alternatively they could both be mafia??? this is relevant because apparently neither of the monk promotes (bishop nor sage) can replicate the monk's ability, based on sprityo's testimony and the role list...

Yo, I know no one actually suspects me these days except for rundontwalk (lol), but I feel like I've clarified this a few times and I'm going to do it again. I got two other PMs from confirmed, now dead, townies - Jay and TonyStark. If you don't want to clear me because you believe bishop could have the same powers as monk, fine. I think I'm better confirmed for placing the deciding vote on lapluie and starting the Iron Dwarf lynch when no one else was talking about it.

no i definitely already agree with that? maybe the phrasing was off but i definitely view you as (probably) mechanically confirmed-ish civ.

I'm doing my best to consider all possibilities because it's nearing crunch time.

i'm not done looking through shit tonight though (even ghough i should definitely be in bed rn to get my standard 6 hours of sleep, and i'll check in before work tomorrow morning.

actually yeah. this feels right. [VOTE: nutella] aubergine

okay so.... i've gotta vote tonight bc i open tomorrow and i can't keep missing votes. i'm going to do a quick review for myself.

rundon'twalk. i have no real concrete reason to see him as civ, his arguments for why he shouldnt be lynched have included logical fallacies, he doesn't have a great voting record

speedchuck.... has eben riding a wave of trust that was started by dunya's semitruck momentum, he's been forthcoming with his results even though some of them had been clearly altered. there's potential for mafia speedchuck but i think it's probably tinfoil. probably

kenway is my magebro and.... if he were mafia i honestly wouldn't be incredibly suprised??? but the thing is he's been more active in our classroom lately despite the obvious difficulty and like.... i just really don't see him as mafia. he's done and said some weird stuff but like.... none of it adds up to what i'd consider to be effective mafia strategy or behavior. i think kenway is just kind of a wild boy. he's told me things in btsc that wouldn't make strategic sense to let me know about if he were mafia.

gwilikers i think is? confirmed by the fact that he seemed to have had the monk power when he snooped on sig's pm that one night. alternatively they could both be mafia??? this is relevant because apparently neither of the monk promotes (bishop nor sage) can replicate the monk's ability, based on sprityo's testimony and the role list...

the biggest thing going for nutella is her record of voting for lapluie and quin and them voting for her, this is mitigated by the fact that lap and quin went after each other a lot so nutella being the subject and also the subjector of hardcore teammate bussing isn't too wildly unbelievable, i'm skimming iron dwarf's posts now for mentions of nutella he went hard against her too... which is.... hmmmm..... nutella also fits the template of being less forthcoming with the results of her actions.

cbob is in a similar boat as nutella, his voting record is pretty good, he's spent a good amount of time battling with actually all of the known dead maifa members but to a much less blatant extent than nutella

my main reason for townreading sig is that, as a vigilante, if he's mafia then he has had every opportunity to lower the population. the probability of him promoting to something that doesn't have a kill ability is unlikely since we did see him kill wilgy.... right? it's possible he promoted to something that only has a one shot kill or something, but then what kind of extra ability would justify that sort of debuff? the fact is, if sig (assuming he didn't promote out of his kill ability) had killed during even just 3 of the nights this game would already be over.

i believe kites is probably civ based on the background synergy with pirate bro wilgy, and the fact that he didn't seem to know that his role was a reference to a specific archer whose brother was a pirate. way too specific to have been faked

in conclusion.... i.....

if i had to pick 2 of these to be our last mafia members..... nutella and cbob???? but is it really possible the mafia made it this far with a strategy of bussing each other pretty much constantly?

i guess mafia Kenway is a possibility that shouldn't be removed from the table. and maybe rundon'twalk?????

alright bear with me cus this is about to lose some sence of continuity cus i'm going out of order a bit.... iron dwarf spent a bit of effort going after both rdw and nutella, which based on the mafia climate of distancing either looks... really good or really bad? but iron dwarf didn't really go after quin or lapluie the way those two did. he almsot ignored quin and almost defended lapluie at some points

uhhhh this post is getting a little long.

holy shit

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:06 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:05 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:04 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:56 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:55 pm not "host kills" you know what i mean. regular murder kills

Jack is the murderer scumslip confirmed

Remember that one time this actually happened? Tbf JKLantern did it first and better than me.

tell the story!!! (:

Kyle nooo
Kyle we need to catch mafia

jack doesn't need to catch mafia so why can't he just tell the storyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy? ):

please

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:04 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:56 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:55 pm not "host kills" you know what i mean. regular murder kills

Jack is the murderer scumslip confirmed

Remember that one time this actually happened? Tbf JKLantern did it first and better than me.

tell the story!!! (:

the fact that the mafia has to choose to do the regular murder kill instead of their own unique role power is a relevant detail that we shouldn't ignore

not "host kills" you know what i mean. regular murder kills

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:59 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:30 am Jackofhearts2005 does the mafia automatically get a nightkill?

Yes. One of the Five Fingers must make the kill in place of their night action.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:08 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:31 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:53 pm do we know if the mafia kill is effected by the speed/priority level of the killer's role?

Jackofhearts2005

it is

some relevant host answers regarding hosts kills

6) All players have one or more weapons. If you have multiple weapons, you must choose one each night. Swords > axes > lances > swords. Anima magic > light magic > dark magic > anima magic. If you use a weapon to target a player with a weapon yours beats, you have a 25% chance to self guide (be unblockable and unmisdirectable). If you use a weapon to target a player with a weapon that beats yours, you have a 25% chance to fail. If you miss your night action and have multiple weapons, you will use the same weapons you used last night. IIf you miss your night one action, your weapon choice will be randomized.

hey has everyone been mindful of the weapon triangle? this could explain some of the failed powers.

5) At night, all flying players will resolve their actions first. Then, all horse riding characters will resolve their actions. Then, all infantry will resolve their actions. Roleblocking a player who has already resolved their action will have no effect, etc.

here's the thing in the rules but I think he clarified on this later, I'll dig it up in a sec as soon as my laptop boots up

yeah one second

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:22 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:02 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:50 pm

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:46 pm One final though does faction nightkill abide by the same rules as other actions? If not I fail to see how this process of elimination works.

I feel like we were told that it was at some point?

Please find it. I'd rather not POE if our POE is full of it.

ugh you're asking for effort? gross

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:50 pm

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:46 pm One final though does faction nightkill abide by the same rules as other actions? If not I fail to see how this process of elimination works.

I feel like we were told that it was at some point?

I just checked, gwil didn't mention being a doctor til day 9

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:44 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:38 pm alright so assuming gwilikers and kites are telling the truth about their targets and weren't misdirected, only a horseperson could have killed sprityo last night right? and if kenway is telling the truth about reversing cbob (and also wasn't misdirected) then that leaves kenway and rdw as potential killers, correct? are there any other horses?

cbob

if kenyway reversed cbob then he couldn't have carried out the kill

we should consider that the mafia was able to kill epignosis through sprityo's protection, however sprityo was a known doctor and gwilikers didn't reveal his PHD until today, so he couldn't have been tampered with for that purpose, right?