The Syndicate

Matt wrote:Congrats 3J, Eloh, MP, and K4J!

What a fun game. Sorry I was a terrible Man, niju. Once 3J called me out a few phases ago, I had no idea what I should do or say hahaha.

Oh, I also played the part of Cell on Day Two and Badcell on Day Three. It was weird because becoming Badcell on Day Three was a carryover from my civ role so I wanted to play it like a civvie, even tho on Day Three I also became Man, who was Process aligned hahaha. Oh and I did fuck up the chatzy that was ridiculous but I fixed it.

Matt wrote:Second post...

Matt wrote:And Blooper's obvi the Process. You're welcome.

...what up?

Hahaha nah, that was totally random. Still pretty cool

Epignosis wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote:OH and how 'bout that that stupid poll with only three names actually was one of each alignment??

agleaminranks (Wave Tennegan) voted MovingPictures07, who tapped into his power, targeting four adjacent names...and DrWilgy pulled one of those four off, leaving three.

How fun was that?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote:Y'all's BTSC must've been absolute panic at ALL times

See new quote.

Camerata chat

Epignosis wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:Good game! being snapshot and creep was fun! Epi don't give me OP elements so I don't get killed right away next time! (dying 3 times in one game was quite the experience)

Thanks for the game!

You were insane with those things. Please do not move next door to me.

What you did with Snapshot was...brilliant.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote:I (and the elements I had at the time) figured you were bad the moment you started trying to get people after me.

Yeah. When our kill attempt on you failed, I was shook. There was probably no more difficult lynch on the table than you, and to make matters worse, we had to find a way to generate it without making you look like the Process, because it was too late in the game to lynch the Process openly.

nijuukyugou wrote:
I will say that, as a freaking indy, this was my best baddie-hunting game by far, even without Snapshot (we missed a few night actions, and then ended up having other checks NK'ed, so it was pointless), so I thoroughly enjoyed stretching the hunting muscles after such a long period of mafia laziness. It just goes to show you: the more effort you expend, the longer it takes for you to lose the game (But seriously, it was great fun, regardless of outcome!)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Good game everyone, on all teams. Y'all made us sweat a great deal, even if it might not necessarily look like it.

nijuukyugou: thank you for making the last few phases such an excitement. I hope you don't take that wrong way, because I genuinely mean it. Sparring with you when I knew you were the Process when I'd be forced to turn a game-long town read around against you was incredibly difficult and your efforts made it doubly so. If a couple minor details in this game go another way I think you get the win. You did a great job.

nijuukyugou wrote:I did not dump a vote. I've said what I want to say. I've also had mostly phone access for the last couple of days due to traveling and sound moving shit, but that's irrelevant. JJJ is bad and has you all right where he wants you. Continue to vote me, and you'll see that for sure. Or perhaps you should rethink voting me, and vote him and see it for sure, too, but also have a chance at winning.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Theory:

DB and niju are the Camerata. They're trying to generate negative press about me because they genuinely believe I am the Process, and thus lynching me would win them the game today.

kneel4justice wrote: Next, there is Niju. Now this is kind of difficult. Because, Niju seems to feel better about me than other players such as DrumBeats and JJJ, which naturally, makes me want her to be good.
But, the first thing that I noticed with Niju was that when JJJ said that Niju and I (K4J) were more likely to be the process; she blew off the idea - completely. Made it look like JJJ was making things up. But never did Niju seem to actually consider that JJJ was right in thinking I was the process. Instead, she dismissed his idea all together. She wanted to discredit him. It just came off weird to me. Don't get me wrong - I am not the process, but how does Niju know I am not? It seemed to me she was focused on rejecting the suspicion all together - that she wanted to discredit everything JJJ was saying. I mean when I read JJJ's claim, yes, I thought to myself - I am not the process. But - I definitely did consider, is Niju the process? I didn't outright object that there might be something to JJJ's thoughts. The fact that she did - makes me feel like it was kind of over-defensive.
Finally, this post:

Spoiler: show

nijuukyugou wrote:

Getting desperate? Way to throw suspicion every which-way but yourselves/each other ("DB would make an interesting teammate" is hardly suspicion). I was curious as to who you guys plan to kill tonight, JJJ and DB, but it looks like you've already stated your plans in the thread. This is fun.

I feel like Niju is too confident in what is going on, in this post and I think that is suspicious. I know you guys don't know me very well if at all, because this is not my home site and I play here rarely - but I have played a lot of mafia and I think this is a classic scum tell. It's just too aggressive at this stage. People should be confused - understanding that no, not everyone knows what's going on. I think Niju is trying to do whatever to ensure that she herself is not lynched and that this strong reaction is evidence of her panicking.


Now. I am open to the idea that I could be wrong. I am by no means sold. So please, if people can actually converse, and speak with me, that would be great.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think a lot of possible discussion surrounding this circumstance is contingent upon the lynch result.

Yeah, you're totally right, I just feel weird seeing the discussion halt completely during the last half hour of EoD. A lot of my reads and opinions will be contingent upon the result as well, especially if Elo is lynched. I don't feel we'll learn as much if zebra is lynched, but it's hard to say at the moment.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

AllAlongTheBoardwalk wrote:What's up with Cell voting for me? I wanting if that will cause anything to happen related to the process? Thoughts?

Whether there'll be consequences I couldn't say. Given that Cell voted off-wagons, I think he/she might be trying to get people to WIFOM about whether you're the one that placed the vote.

If it's not you.

I agree.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:What do you like about Doc, MP?

A few things:

1) His thoughts regarding Elo towards EoD, and his willingness to give her an hour to respond to his concerns
2) His GTH read exercise with you in real time
3) His insistence in throwing out GTH reads of his own, all of which are tentatively believable as genuine given his recent content

All reads are slight for now pending a flip or two, but yeah, Wilgy's recent behavior seems town to me.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think a lot of possible discussion surrounding this circumstance is contingent upon the lynch result.

Yeah, you're totally right, I just feel weird seeing the discussion halt completely during the last half hour of EoD. A lot of my reads and opinions will be contingent upon the result as well, especially if Elo is lynched. I don't feel we'll learn as much if zebra is lynched, but it's hard to say at the moment.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:MP: is your read on nutella impacted by the shift in your read on Elohcin?

Inevitably, yeah, but I don't have any flips yet, so I'm hesitant to move nutella to null or town just based on Elo's descent. I still would like to hear from nutella before re-evaluating.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:My preferred lynch is Elohcin.

Let's do it then. CFD Elohcin.

VOTES ELOHCIN

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:This might prove a telling flip given the progression of Day 1.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:In summary I think there's a valid reason to suspect nearly everyone in the Zebra wagon. The only vote that I don't find especially troubling is Matt's. I am sure not everyone else in that wagon is a baddie, so it's important that everyone involved say their piece and enable a fuller conversation.

How would you rank them in terms of least to most suspicious? I'm going to mull over that myself now that we know Elo was mafia and provide my ranking.

I'm going to reassess in light of the new information before I put up any sort of ranking. Eloh was a point of significant discussion and I'm going to do some interactive reads.

That sounds good to me. I was hoping to do some myself if you didn't get around to it first.

I'm going to at least throw up a new rainbow here due to my lack of being able to talk during Day 2, subject to change pending further investigation by myself, you, or others.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I know I haven't been great at participating in a while or at addressing my accusers. I have like a half an hour max now, then unfortunately I need to leave to teach and won't be home until after the deadline, so I'll try to do what I can.

With respect to my lynch vote, I don't want to lynch JJJ. I don't really have any reason to believe that he's bad, and Llama and Mac pushing the easy button on it over and over again with practically no attempt to convince anyone else doesn't do anything for me.

MacDougall wrote:KILL ALL JIMMYS KILL ALL JIMMYS

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.

Of course you do, so you can buy more time for your team and people will avoid voting you and seeing you for the baddie you are. Two confirmed civs (assuming NK'ed llama was a civ, which I will most certainly assume) knew it, saw or knew something we didn't, and tried to show it with their crazy votes, but were too busy to prove it beyond that, it seems. Lucky you.

But I'm not too busy. I'm done with work. And I'm coming for you, Jimmy.

You've bothered to paint a picture of some baddie strategy you claim I'm employing, but you've not bothered to address the core point I was making:

Town cannot win this game without reducing the voting power of the Process.

So if you're going to accuse me of bullshitting, then the onus is on you to show me where my assertion is false. Lay it out for me, niju, phase by phase. How does town win this game without addressing the voting power of the Process faction?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Niju, you keep saying DB placed the "clincher" vote on Zebra on Day 1. This doesn't make sense -- his vote came before any of the Elohcin votes. You're accusing him of sealing the Zebra lynch over the Elohcin lynch as if he had a distinct intent to do that -- implying he'd somehow know that a 5-vote wagon for Elohcin was going to come after he voted for Zebra.

kneel4justice wrote:I'm trying to follow JJJ's suspicion of Niju, but I'm not quite understanding how Niju's voting for mafia members suggests that she is a mafia member herself? Obviously teammates vote for each-other, but looking at Niju's votes, those would have been rather excessive and unnecessary, IMO. I'm not seeing anything suspicious there and I am trying to keep an open-mind about everyone at this point. The posts from Niju as a whole have not stuck me as suspicious - I especially liked the voting analysis effort and found it rather helpful.

The only thing that has relatively bothered me about Niju is the disapproval of DrumBeat's action against the process elements. Because as I have stated before, it makes perfect sense from a logical standpoint to get rid of the elements IF the mafia and civs are both doing so. Because the mafia/civ ratio continues to stay the same while the process only loses its power; which helps boost its ratio since there are quite a few voting powers (unless I have something majorly mathematically mistaken?). So perhaps Niju, if you could address this - and explain if I am missing something in your thought process here?

Now originally, I was thinking DrumBeat's action against the process was a good sign in terms of him not being the process, as well as not being the mafia (because I didn't think a mafia would suggest that proposal; as it would be risky) but as the numbers dwindle down, I am starting to wonder if this is what he anticipated on people thinking. So, I am trying to consider all possibilities here. I do get a bit thrown off everytime he claims that if he were mafia - the elements would have been targeted sooner and consistently, because things are not that simple. That is an independent mindset; on a team you have to consider everyone's input, so I don't really count that as much of a valid defense.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote:And those last comments regarding me feel like you've just been waiting to use the "waffly" against me. Nice try. I don't buy it.

I mentioned the "waffly" posts a while ago. This is nothing new.

nijuukyugou wrote:Are you serious, JJJ? You're going to tell me that, after that little bit of "analysis" above, that out of those three candidates that you least suspect, that I'm the most suspicious? That my changing my opinion of MP, yet voting for him, twice (and the second time in the clincher) is more suspicious than DFaraday's in-and-out, poor voting record? That it's more suspicious of me to change my mind on MP, to vote out two mafia members, consistently, at crucial times, than DrumBeats' avoidance of the Eloh lynch, than his first vote on the second MP train, which could much more have easily been a bus than a consistent second vote on the second train, for the second time?

Yes, especially if you're intent to feed yourself credit for those votes. This late in the game, a sterling voting record isn't worth as much IMO. Townies make mistakes, townies are wrong about things. I'm not going to suspect DFaraday the most just because of his voting record, and I'm not going to trust you the most just because of yours. Everything is nuanced. I found a specific reason in DFaraday's interactions with MP to think he's an unlikely team mate -- MP scapegoated him harder than anyone for the Zebra wagon of Day 1. Do you disagree that this is a meaningful thing? I made similar observations about DrumBeats, though I found them less conclusive.

There's a potential baddie angle to be seen in a sterling voting record, and it's absolutely necessary that you be forced to talk about it -- we're in the final stages of this game. If you're bad, we have no chance to win unless we put some pressure on you and make you talk; you've been enjoying a pretty breezy game prior to this point.

nijuukyugou wrote:I also find it hard to believe that you'd put it past MP to associate himself with two teammates in a rainbow list, or throw teammates under the bus, or really, do anything regarding his teammates. You've played with MP enough times, I believe, to know that that dude will do anything, pull just about any gambit, to win. For god's sake, he came out against Eloh from the get-go AND voted for her in the first counter-wagon that may have won HAD IT NOT BEEN FOR DRUMBEATS' FINAL VOTE. I understand the tinfoiling, sir, but what I don't buy is the tinfoiling of my behavior over theirs, unless you're trying for the least likely candidate. Either you're deluding yourself, tinfoiling yourself into a hole, or I've been deluded by you this whole game, and that llama kill last night was WIFOM madness.

I actually haven't played with a baddie MP many times. This is only the third time I can remember, and the first time he was modkilled for inactivity (RYM game #70). I think he's capable of doing a lot of things, but that doesn't mean he did them all in this game. That's kind of what we're challenged with, yes? We have to look at everything he said and did and make a judgment call. I think his scapegoating behavior of DFaraday, particularly at a stage of the game when Elohcin was already a high-probability lynch, is a telling thing. He's capable of placing two team mates among the three town reads in his rainbow reads, but I think it's less likely than the notion that he didn't. I'm not really interested in what he's "capable" of, because that spectrum is too broad. I'm interested in what I think is most likely to have happened given the context of the game thread.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Long story short, I am not mafia. I am not Process. I have hella enjoyed finally having time and energy to play a civ game and baddie/indy hunt. Your tinfoiling me without having good reason to do so (especially given that others appear worse than me, even in your own analysis, even at this point in the game) other than to tinfoil is going to cost you a valuable civ. I advise against it.

You're telling me that you don't buy my suspicion of you, and you're also telling me that I'm tinfoiling you. Which is it?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Well we have an hour left. I think Mac is my top Camerata suspect with niju behind him. Niju and K4J look the most Process-compatible.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:The fact that I am still alive in this game makes me think there's a high probability that I have been pocketed by a town read who is thus trying to take advantage of me and anticipates support in my voting behavior down the stretch. With that in mind I am returning to the three I've been town reading the most: DrumBeats, nijuukyugou, and DFaraday, to discern where I may have gone wrong. Indeed, it's impossible for all three of them to be town with a 3:2:1 ratio. It is possible that none of them are Camerata. If one of them has pocketed me though, that would imply a Camerata alignment rather than a Process alignment, because the killing power has lied with the former. So for now, that's where my investigation is focused.

When I look back to each of the three as I have previously analyzed them, this still stands out to me the most:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Spoiler: show

MovingPictures07 wrote:

DFaraday wrote:

agleaminranks wrote:Zebra has been posting nonsense that indicates nothing

It indicates that Zebra is playing in an unhelpful manner to the town, at least.

*votes Zebra*

So we're just going to policy lynch her and not discuss anything else?

I thought I brought meaningful content to the discussion regarding nutella, and literally NO ONE has commented on it, or anything else I've said about zebra. Why does it seem like no one gives a shit whether zebra is town or not?

This is nonsense.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

DFaraday wrote:And no, I don't think Wilgy is being very helpful either, but he does this regardless of alignment. I don't recall Zebra ever behaving this way.

So because you interpret this behavior to be within zebra's meta, but Wilgy's is in within meta, then zebra's behavior being "weird" makes her worthy of your vote? How is that logical at all?

Weird DOES NOT EQUAL suspicious. Can anyone actually explain to me the mafia motivation behind zebra's actions?

MP voiced exaggerated displeasure at the Zebra wagon and DF was the target of that in a couple cases. Given that this was a white-knighting job by MP in defense of Zebra, this might be a nice look for DFaraday -- he'd be taking the brunt of the blame for the wagon that could be blamed on numerous people.

Slight mafia read in the second rainbow list.

Spoiler: show

MovingPictures07 wrote:

DFaraday wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote: Most of you zebra voters have some explaining to do. Please respond to my concerns at your convenience.

Zebra was acting weird. That was pretty much the extent of my thought process.

I'd like to lynch DFaraday.

MP definitely blamed DF for what happened to Zebra. Good look.

MP was highly vocal about how bad he felt the Zebra wagon was, and I think it's pretty clear that it was his desire to scapegoat at least a portion of that wagon (particularly given that he voted for his team mate on Day 1 instead of Zebra). Nobody felt MP's treatment of this more harshly than DFaraday, and indeed he promoted the lynch of DF entering a phase that saw MP's team mate lynched instead. I think this is a really solid look for DF, perhaps the single strongest interactive point in the game for anyone IMO.

I don't think it's likely MP and DF are team mates with this in mind.

~~~

When it comes to DrumBeats, I find myself returning to this:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Spoiler: show

MovingPictures07 wrote:MP Rainbow List #1

Slight Town:
AllAlongtheBoardwalk
DrumBeats
Elohcin

Null:
a2thezebra
agleaminranks
DFaraday
DrWilgy
Illyria
JaggedJimmyJay
Matt
Nerolunar
nijuukyugou
reywaS
sig
thellama73

Slight Mafia:
nutella

Currently players are NOT ranked within groups by order of suspicion; rather, they are alphabetical.

Too many nulls. Please post more, nulls! So far, reywaS hasn't posted at all, and DFaraday and sig haven't posted yet during Day 1. Did I miss anyone else? Hope to hear from them soon.

I'm town reading AATB due to his contribution to the discussion last night when I pressured him, though I want more. I wasn't sure what to make of DrumBeats but having caught up now I'm seeing his attempts to engage people with this plan as genuinely town-minded, but it's still a slight lean. Elohcin is active and I'm enjoying it; I also am reading her attempts to engage others so far as genuine, and her frustrations displayed a townie mindset. All minor, but they're all worth town reads nonetheless. I think forming town reads, even very slight at this stage, is just as important as identifying mafia leans, perhaps even more so. So I intend on trying to sort through these as the day progresses and hopefully form some more. Please help me out with that, folks! Show me your townie spark.

*snip*

One of three green reads in the first rainbow list, alongside MP's team mate Elohcin. I find myself doubting that MP would put half his team in a pile of just three greens when the null pile is so huge. The highlighted cyan portion shows MP attempting to explain that green slot, and it's tentative like he doesn't want to give the controversial DB too much credit. Nice looks.

Spoiler: show

MovingPictures07 wrote:All six of zebra's voters, with perhaps the exception of DrumBeats: You're suspicious, regardless of zebra's alignment.

DB was the only person MP didn't berate among the voters in the Zebra wagon.

These two points make it such that associating DrumBeats with MP requires a significant swallowing of WIFOM. On Day 1 in MP's first rainbow, he gave us three "green" reads, one of which was Elohcin (confirmed team mate) and another was DrumBeats, alongside AATB/Scotty (confirmed non-team mate). Most baddies would not be inclined to put two team mates in their town reads when the number of town reads is so small. When I ask myself: "Would MovingPictures07 be willing to do that?", my answer is "It's possible, but only if he felt both team mates had been clearly pro-town in the thread and were generally trusted".

When it comes to DB, this is perhaps a contentious point. I wasn't especially suspicious of him on Day 1 and I think a number of people weren't, but he was still somewhat controversial because of his anti-Process elements proposal for town/mafia coordination. I would ask the thread at large: If you were a baddie on Day 1 and DB was your team mate, would you be comfortable calling him one of just three town reads given the proposal he put forth? I'm not sure I would be.

Moreover, the second post in that quote there makes it look like MP wanted people to associate him with DrumBeats. I am less confident about this than I am about DFaraday, but I do still lean towards a non-team mate relationship.

~~~

niju'ukyugou's strongest defense is in her votes, as she herself has recently assessed. In this late-game scenario I am less willing to trust a voting record to clear a player though, because baddies know who one another are. They have an easier time assembling a pristine voting record than townies do, who are struggling to solve the game. Her votes for baddies were as follows:

1. 2nd vote for Elohcin on Day 1
2. 4th vote for Elohcin on Day 2
3. 2nd vote for MP on Day 5
4. 2nd vote for MP on Day 6

1. This is a vote I have appreciated for much of the game. The Zebra wagon had taken off to the 6-vote total and had a commanding lead. With time limited in Day 1, the Elohcin wagon was created and grew rapidly to the point of closing within one vote of Zebra's. MP himself took part in this counterwagon, voting 3rd of 5. We know for a fact that this counterwagon had at least some Camerata participation, and I think it can be looked at in a different light with that in mind.

The wagon came close to tying Zebra's, but it still fell short. Given the time remaining and the players present to place a vote before the deadline, it was probably always a longshot for that wagon to meet the necessary target of 6 votes to tie Zebra's. This means to me that MP was gambling within this counterwagon -- promoting a wagon of his team mate, while the wagon he so loudly criticized (Zebra's) was still the most likely to net the Day's lynch. I think it's plausible that nijuukyugou (2nd vote of 5) was a part of the same strategy: to make it look like Elohcin was a potential lynch when it was never terribly likely that it'd resolve that way.

2. niju's vote was the 4th of 5 for Elohcin when she was lynched on Day 2. At the time of this vote, the only viable counterwagon was for Young Lady (sitting at 2 compared to Elohcin's 3). I would call this vote bus-compatible, but it doesn't have to be that.

3. niju's MP vote on Day 5 (2nd of 2, alongside Operator) came while Operator (the eventual lynch) was at 2 votes. This in a vacuum is a decent look, but I also think it's important to state that an element lynch looked like a strong possibility at this point and the baddies likely knew that as well as anyone else.

4. Strongest of niju's votes, I think. This one put MP in a tie with me, and enabled me to push MP beyond towards the gallows.

I also find myself returning to these:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Things nijuukyugou said to/about MovingPictures07:

Spoiler: show

nijuukyugou wrote:

thellama73 wrote:All right, I am here and caught. Right off the bat, I feel good about overly-enthusiastic MP. Seems like typical civ behavior from him. I also doubt Drumbeats would have proposed the voteswap if he were bad, so my voting choices are already narrowing down. Come on, other people, give me some more to work with.

LOL, I always see enthusiastic MP as the opposite. The red baddie lights go off when he's asking questions like this, but then again, I'm always inclined to keep an eye on the slippery sock. No actual ping except my gut, which is not enough to go off of at this point, so don't take that comment as such. Yet. I'd like to actually participate better in this game than I have in the last few games, and I believe I'm off to a good start.

This Day 1 commentary on MP is a bit of a waffle.

Spoiler: show

nijuukyugou wrote:

agleaminranks wrote:Niju is getting my vote. MP, check my post in response to yours.

You have no explanation for this. Explain, please.

Nerolunar wrote:And it was probably a night action that provoked this poll change, so even if we lynch the wrong guy(me) then we can examine Squid and MP closer since one of them is guaranteed to be bad.

Not necessarily. I'm still of the mind that this is random annoying night action shenanigans. Or Epi shenanigans. Or both.

Nerolunar wrote:I don´t think that we are all civ. Spending a whole day without the opportunity to lynch a baddie is not good design imo. Epignosis knows this.

Epi does what he wants to amuse himself. This amuses him. He once had a night poll in which people were asked if they had "enough courage," and everyone who voted "yes" was put on the poll the next day, and everyone who didn't was left off. All who voted were civilian, if I recall correctly. This man has no soul

Nerolunar wrote:Voted Niju. She seems worse to me than MPm, although had it not been for this poll I would read her as civ. Oh well.

I just beat Sybil in the game It is an amazing soundtrack.

I appreciate the vote of confidence, but I also don't appreciate the vote. Why am I worse than MP? Is it the tentacles?

I think I want to see MP as bad, because he tricks me (especially when he puts me at the top of his lists. But for good reason ), but I'm reading him as good this game. The point about his silencing and the mafia role power that reacts to targeting makes this argument stronger. And his explanation of changing his thoughts about Eloh rang true - I also saw her frustration with mafia in general as genuine at first, but then grew mightily suspicious when she kept going after Matt, etc. etc. (I've been over this, not gonna rehash).

Nero, alas, your avoidance of voting for Eloh in the last lynch makes you look worse out of the two of you. Voting Nero.

Also rather waffly.

The second one especially is giving me the heebie-jeebies right now. "I think I want to see MP as bad" is yikes at face value, and the roundabout method of arriving at a town lean looks a little manufactured.

Of these three, I think nijuukyugou is the most likely to have been a baddie behind the curtain. I actually suspect her considerably more now, and I want to hear everyone's thoughts on this.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:With llama gone I also lose my top Process suspect. If I return to my voting analysis, I'm essentially left with process of elimination (no pun intended) to determine who else should be considered. I thought DFaraday and Mac both looked good in this regard, and I still don't think DrumBeats is likely to be the Process. He's been quite focused on destroying its elements, and I think there's more reason than ever now to agree with his stance that the elements are pro-Process regardless of perceived balance. Man's role reveal is highly suggestive of this reality, IMO.

That leaves me with niju and K4J as likely Process candidates. A little later I'll look around their posts for behavioral clues to see what may augment or oppose the night phase voting records.

DrumBeats wrote:GUYS I JUST FOUND OUT WHAT LUNA IS!

If you look at the Transistor wiki (http://transistor.wikia.com/wiki/Sandbox) page here apparently Luna is a friendly Fetch found in the game's sandbox mode.

Additionally, the lack of a kill means that mafia either shot the Process, shot an element protected by Cheerleader, or shot a civ protected by a doctor if that is still present in the game. Operator's role is interesting and better taken out before the others die, so I am happy it is out, though the fact that it didn't have a vote makes me feel that it might not have been the best lynch option.

Process elements I would be willing to vote today: Man or Fetch

I feel like elements are still the way to go for now. It would be best to err on the safe side with them before we fight the civ vs mafia war that could drop our numbers below that of the Process.

kneel4justice wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

kneel4justice wrote:I'm thinking that these sock-puppet accounts are run by different players who aren't on the sign-up list (Golden, birdwithteeth, Roxy, etc) and that these players have access to a thread that no one else can see - which is where these snapshots are coming from. Maybe the longer the game goes on, the more elements/players are added in....so it is best to lynch the process elements earlier in the game. What isn't making sense for me is, the process must be 1 of the 17 original players since there were 17 roles..I'd think that it would make most sense to need that player dead rather than the sockpuppet accounts??

Anyway, I definitely don't think that the ISO on DrumBeats is valid. I think it comes with an obvious agenda. But certainly Roxy (I am just going to assume for now that she really wrote that post) would have known the ISO would not come with an actual lynch outcome. So that doesn't quite make sense.
Also, with the above being said, I'd also disagree that JJJ is running the sockpuppet accounts.

What don't you like about the ISO on DrumBeats, and why don't you think I'm running the socks?

I think the ISO is coming from a member of the process.
I also think it would make sense for the members of the process to want DrumBeats dead. Especially now, since it would appear that Drumbeat's original plan/offer for the mafia to kill an element and then the town to lynch an element is happening.
Also, the part of the ISO that suggests DrumBeats could be the process just looks to me that the ISO is bias/unreliable and that the account was doing anything they could to paint DrumBeats as suspicious.
But that is also making me wonder if this is some kind of reverse psychology, because certainly this sock puppet account should know that we would not take the ISO seriously.

I do not think you're the sockpuppet accounts, because as I stated, I am thinking the sockpuppet accounts are being run by players who are not on the original sign-up list....did you even read my post?

thellama73 wrote:Old JimBob has been playing us for fools from the start. He thinks he is so clever. Well I see right through him. Kill all Jimmies.

MovingPictures07 wrote:To anyone who is considering a vote for me and wants me to answer for suspicions:

Please let me know if I've missed anything still, but it seems the only main thing that people want to hear from me is regarding my shifting viewpoint of nutella (something Scotty also was badgering me for).

Here are the relevant quotes I could find:

nijuukyugou wrote:Checking in on phone (celebrating my brother's birthday; don't want to miss the vote, but I'd like to give proper attention to my guest and family). For what I've been able to pay attention to for the last couple of days, I'm gonna vote MP. When I flip-flop on him, he's almost always bad, and his going after nutella yet reluctance to vote her way from said suspicion looks like a baddie knowing to avoid a lynch. I know that's not an awesome, eloquent explanation for my vote, but phone typing sucks and party calls. I'll address other stuff when I'm able to be more attentive.

As well as JJJ's semi-ISO thing of me asking me to address the nutella question (didn't quote because spoiler tag issues).

My changing viewpoint of nutella from bad early on to the green (good) range was based solely on her interactions with Elohcin, and not on nutella's answers to anyone or any of her own behavior on its own. I just didn't believe it likely that nutella would have been one of the very first people to have a suspicion of Elo, and furthermore, express a willingness so early in Day 1 to vote for her, if Elohcin were her teammate. Seems unnecessarily committal and setting up for a bus that didn't even seem likely to happen. So considering that, I upped my viewpoint of her given Elo's flip.

Regarding nutella's change back, yes, as JJJ noted, I cited his nutella / Elo interactive analysis and his accompanying rainbow. I didn't have time to conduct such interactive analyses myself, and I know my current limits due to RL, so I thoroughly reviewed them and considered them when reevaluating my rainbow. I didn't realize how little Elo had talked with nutella, and upon viewing what nutella actually said to Elo, I thought that maybe I was over-emphasizing nutella's initial bus-happy vocal inclination to vote off a teammate, and reevaluated her failure to vote for Elo when the goings got rough as well as the interactive behavior and moved her down. The reason I stuck with my guns by voting for gleam were because I still didn't feel confident enough to move nutella down to the dark red portion of my rainbow since I had reason in her early history with Elo to still doubt a nutella lynch was the best way to go. I didn't know that everyone else was just going to vote nutella without even discussing gleam, and I figured me voting for him would spur some discussion in my absence; clearly that wasn't the case. I still think gleam, Mac, and DF are solid candidates to consider for Elo teammates given their interactive analyses, vote history, and other thread content, but I'm not sold on any particular one of them over another, and I despise the characterization that Scotty made of my gleam suspicion as a NO U. It was never a NO U. It's clear in my ISO that I suspected gleam for his behavior surrounding Elo. Yes, I didn't understand his suspicion of me, but that alone didn't remotely serve as the basis for suspecting him. I had no "pause" in voting for gleam, unlike I did for nutella once we found out that Elo was bad.

I know I haven't been the best at portraying my train of thought, so hopefully that clears it up enough on that matter. I'm not sure what to say to nijuu's "I'm always bad" comment; I have just as much a statistical chance of being good as anyone else, and I've been civilian plenty lately and I am again here. I'm not sure what I'm supposed to do with her flip flopping on me either.

nutella wrote:You guys are so wrong about me and you're gonna be disappointed when I flip, but it looks like at this point there's nothing I can say to convince you. I've tried to defend about each point multiple times but apparently all my posts read as bad now, which I can't really help because I haven't had a lot of time to put into this game and so all my posts have been kinda rushed. I'm really sorry I couldn't help more and haven't gotten to use my role to its full potential.

Unfortunately I am travelling all day today and will not be around for the rest of the day period so I won't really be able to defend myself further, but it's looking like a foregone conclusion at this point. All I can say is everything I've said has been genuine, I really regret changing my mind on Elo but that's just how it goes sometimes. Since I won't be around I should vote now and I'll vote for llama I guess, I think it's fairly likely he's bad and he jumped pretty eagerly on this train against me, along with Macdougall who I would also peg as bad. I still suspect DF as well. I think those three, perhaps in that order, should be the next lynch candidates. Good luck civs

As a warning, starting tomorrow afternoon and through Tuesday, my participation will likely drop significantly, as I will have a visitor for the weekend I'll do my best to keep up, but I won't be giving the same attention I've been doing so far.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: (snipped for relevance)
nijuukyugou's vote was seventh. Similarly she didn't have much to say about Nero prior to Day 3 and her vote was placed as a process of elimination selection. If there's anything to talk about here it's probably this from Night 1:

nijuukyugou wrote:Well, that result was unsurprising It was a shitty lynch, for sure, but it's, alas, a typical Day 1. I'm inclined to agree with Nero, MP - you're taking it quite hard. Unusually so. Perhaps because there's been a string of it lately? (Again, thinking Futurama and now this.) I see it as both lazy civilian play and baddie bandwagon, but at least it'll give us something to look at with those votes? Perhaps I'm also just in a really good mood and more inclined to look at the bright side today

I'm gonna vote Cell, because I wanna know more about it. It's creeping me out, lurking about like it is.

I can't tell whether it was niju's intent to cast suspicion upon MP for the perceived "taking it hard" regarding MP's severe reactions to the Zebra wagon or merely to observe that the reactions existed. It's relevant to this because it represented a MP/Nero dynamic occuring prior to their appearing as nijuu's only poll options on Day 3, when she selected Nero. niju, can you return to this moment and clarify what you intended to convey about MP if anything?

nutella wrote:

kneel4justice wrote:

nutella wrote:Alright, I'm giving Eloh another chance and voting for Nerolunar because he is bad. Just a strong gut feeling that has emerged from his last several posts. I feel similarly about DF, and to a lesser extent llama.

So, what do you make of DF suspicion of Nero? Do you think they're teammates? I don't recall a lot of opinions from DF (if I missed something, please let me know)...so I would be inclined to believe that the few suspicions that DF does share, if he were bad, wouldn't be a teammate. Especially considering Nero was not really under fire.

I do actually think DF and Nero could be teammates. DF already seems to be participating more than he usually does (usually barely at all), and I guess I see your point that his few contributions must be legit but I could also see him cleverly fabricating a suspicion on a teammate that might not have seemed likely to go anywhere. His "case"/comment on Nero was pretty weak and he ends up classifying it as a "mild baddie" read, not a very committed suspicion, and misses the vote anyway. And now he says he's rethinking the suspicion in light of Elo's flip. Idk, it might be a stretch but I could see it.

DF, why do you think you need to reconsider your suspicion of Nero based on the result?

nutella wrote:RIP Matt.

JJJ, I have already explained my Nero vote. I know that it looks bad for me but I genuinely felt better about Elo.

Now this poll is weird...

DrumBeats wrote:And based on that idea, I have a question for everyone. EVERYONE SHOULD ANSWER THIS:

If that is the case, and the three available on the poll are one town, one mafia, and the Process, who do you think is each?

My opinion:
Town-MovingPictures07
Process-nijuukyugou
Mafia-Nerolunar

I agree with this completely, in the case that it is indeed one of each (I have no particular reason to think niju is the process, although Matt thought so, and she very well could be). I do think that MP is town and Nero is mafia. With that I'll go ahead and vote Nero

agleaminranks wrote:Niju is getting my vote. MP, check my post in response to yours.

Nerolunar wrote:And it was probably a night action that provoked this poll change, so even if we lynch the wrong guy(me) then we can examine Squid and MP closer since one of them is guaranteed to be bad.

Nerolunar wrote:I don´t think that we are all civ. Spending a whole day without the opportunity to lynch a baddie is not good design imo. Epignosis knows this.

Nerolunar wrote:Voted Niju. She seems worse to me than MPm, although had it not been for this poll I would read her as civ. Oh well.

I just beat Sybil in the game It is an amazing soundtrack.

DrumBeats wrote:Conspiracy theory: What if it is 1 town, 1 mafia, and 1 independent (Process)?

Nerolunar wrote:I think it´s 2 town, 1 mafia. I don´t think we will have 33% change to lynch the Process at any point in this game except for maybe Lylo. Would be too easy to lynch the Process then.

MovingPictures07 wrote:As for me, I have to go now, and the next 48 hours or so I'll be pretty busy. I wanted to make sure to sneak in some Night posting while I could before the period ended (1) in case I die tonight, or otherwise (2) due to the next 48-hour period. I'll contribute what I can. I think we should widen the discussion of players. I'd like to perform some ISO analyses, but they're a bit meaningless this early and without a mafia flip, and I'm short on time until near the end of Day 2. So we'll see. Someone else feel free to do them if you're so inclined (JJJ, I'm looking at you primarily).

Elohcin wrote:

Matt wrote:

Matt wrote:I played Spirited Away, but died fairly soon I think.

Elo - Do you have a rebuttal to niju's claim that you should remember how Wilgy was in that game?

Elo - Throughout the phase, Wilgy has been speaking in English in every post except for one, so how did you come to the conclusion he was cursed?

After going through my ISO, I do apologize for referring to you as "hon". Otherwise, I don't know what you're talkin' about "name calling", but mkay.

Anyway, answers?

As for the first question: I have said this before and I will say it again. Between my job, homeschooling, and household matters, I only have enough capacity in my brain for one mafia game at a time. Once I am done with a game, I put it out of my head and focus on what's at hand. I am the same way with my business. I focus on this week's cakes and this week's only. I have several order forms in my business folder, but I don't pull them out until it's time to shop for ingredients for that week. I can't keep that many things at the forefront of my mind. I know several of you can. Epi, for one, can read 6 or 7 books at once an remember what's going on in each. All while playing and hosting mafia and keeping up with several shows. And then on top of that, I bet he could recall the last 7 mafia games he played in order. Me? I know, of course, I hosted DA most recently. I think before that I was in....I think an MP game. I cannot even recall. Before that it was Rocky & Bullwinkle, I think. Call me stupid, but I just can't do it. My brain doesn't retain info well :P I am a second child and my older brother graduated with a 4.3 (validictorian) and I never saw him crack a book. I worked hard and struggled for my As and Bs. But, I am creative and I have more common sense than the next guy. We're all different. You can't say I'm bad b/c my brian doesn;t retain info like the rest of you smarties in here. I won't stand for it. I heard one too many times, "why can't you be more like your brother." I won't stand for anything like that here.

Second question: I answered this one. Wilgy's gibberish post was towards the beginning of Day 1. Night actions were used Night 0. I had been mostly focused on your posts so far during Day 1 and paid more attention to you than anyone else and I know I shouldn't have. I should have let you do your thing and just shut up b/c it aided us in lynching a civ Day 1. Anyway...so I was paying more attention to you than him(remember I am a focused person and don't keep a lot in the forefront of my mind at the same time) and that was the first post of his that I could recall. So when I made of note of seeing it, my brain automatically though, "hmm, he must have been cursed. Carrying on... Matt is annoying the hell out of me." So when you asked about why I hadn't been all over wilgy's case as I was all over yours. I just wrote what I recalled thinking when I saw his post. AND, even though he wasn't being helpful in my opinion. I didn't think he was being too harmful as I thought you were. But I guess calling out names and accusing them to be a particular role is a genuine playstyle. I just hope that if you stick around, that you will not only say things like, "niju is the professor, let's lynch her" But that you will actually build some cases as to why you think those things.

Oh, and I think I said that wrong. I don't mean name calling. I mean naming players as bad with no explanation. Sorry abotu that, the misunderstanding was my miscommunication for sure.

nutella wrote:

DrumBeats wrote:

nutella wrote:Aw bye Illy, sad to see you go. Welcome Mac.

Drum: I admit I didn't fully understand your plan at first. But I still think it's somewhat dangerous to focus on lynching the one rogue rather than the mafia, and we don't even fully understand how targeting elements of the Process works. It just seems like a waste of lynch opportunities to me -- perhaps it would weaken the Process but at the cost of keeping the mafia alive.

Gotcha, thanks for the answer of there was no malicious intent possible. It was an opportunistic suspicion that you thought you could bank on without actually having a base for it.

Current "vote": Nutella

Fabricating a scumread for malicious intent that you cannot back up or provide makes the read feel forced and opportunistic.

What are you talking about? Of course there could be malicious intent in steering the lynches away from the mafia. I said that it would be dangerous, and it was a reasonable at the time to think you might have intentions of keeping the mafia alive. And it still could be, but again I don't really suspect you as much anymore; that doesn't mean my original suspicion was unfounded or opportunistic. It may have been exaggerated by a misunderstanding of your plan but it was still legitimate and can still apply to the clarified plan.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:nijuukyugou

Spoiler: show

nijuukyugou wrote:

a2thezebra wrote:Wait how is it STILL Day 1?

How are you still confused by the mechanics? What's going on with you, zeebs? This is weird as shit.

Linki @ DrumBeats - Your plan, however, at its core, is to trust mafia to any extent, which is not viable. They already have a large team for a speed game with only 17 players. Again, part of the theory works, and I agree we need to keep a hell of an eye on the Process and prevent what we can, but trusting mafia to help civs is not gonna work for a civ win.

This is snipped from a larger post. She asserted that Zebra's behavior was "weird as shit", but didn't make a definitive accusation. I'll follow the progression.

Her comment @DrumBeats strikes me as a misconstruing of what he was proposing. This came after he reiterated/restated his idea to emphasize that it required no actual trust of the baddie team (because it required them to make the first move). I'm not sure what trust nijuu was suggesting had to exist for this plan to function. I don't know whether that means anything, but it's something nijuu can talk about and perhaps that'll substantiate any resulting read.

DrWilgy wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote:Gotta do the interview thing. Voting Eloh. Two reasons?

1) Posts have appeared disingenuous, as stated beforehand. See other postings.
2) Her vote on zebra is the easy way out, and the explanation (regarding a "slip" that I don't agree happened) smells. She's not the only one to blame for this (really, I don't agree with any of the votes on zebra), but these in combination earn her my vote.

Now, off to successful question-answering!

Linki - Whoa, seriously. The mind-meld. It's freaking me, out, maaaaaaaaan

Good luck interviewing!

DrWilgy wrote:*Wilgy's eyes sparkle*
Niju! Are you my non btsc teammate!?!

Linki - thank you for your infinite wisdom MoD...

I have to spend the rest of my evening studying up for an ***interview*** tomorrow

nijuukyugou wrote:

Spacedaisy wrote: Or if you are contemplating getting a Mohawk and would like someone else's opinion.

[/np]

Sometimes, I've seriously considered doing something just that crazy with my hair, for shits and giggles, because it's hair. I know who'll I can come to now to talk me out of it

Spacedaisy wrote: Or if you are contemplating getting a Mohawk and would like someone else's opinion.

[/np]

Sometimes, I've seriously considered doing something just that crazy with my hair, for shits and giggles, because it's hair. I know who'll I can come to now to talk me out of it

MovingPictures07 wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Who hasn't yet voted and is currently around?

Me!

For whom are you considering a vote?

MovingPictures07 wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote: The "voting for each other" thing is reminiscent of the craziness of Biblical mafia, when two of the roles were cursed to vote each other until they were dead. I think it's too early for that sort of mechanic, perhaps, but you did ask for thoughts, and this game is pretty...secret

Regarding zebra, I was thinking about the behavior today. I wonder if she has a role where she has to act confused? Like, all the time? In a very obvious manner, like this one? It is definitely out of character/playstyle for her to be acting like this, but she's also being consistently confused about things that are not confusing, which gives me much pause. Is there a character or mechanic in the actual game that might explain the behavior? Someone also mentioned that the Process could be behind it already (can't remember who), which is something to consider. Part of me is not wanting to ignore weird behavior, but more of me says that blatantly weird behavior on Days 1 is not something mafia does - lying low is their best bet early on.

That's a possibility, but I think it's very slim. I'm not sure why Epi would design such a role in his game, especially since he knows how often weird behavior attracts lynch attention.

What perhaps is more likely, IMO anyway, is a "Jester" role, which is a role for which zebra has to get herself lynched to win. Like Sidoh in Death Note and Tofu Boy in Super Meat Boy?

However, I think the most likely explanation for this behavior is that zebra was willing to most likely sacrifice herself to be the Day 1 lynch to further the townie cause by getting people talking and exposing mafia behavior. It's the kind of gambit I can see her doing, even if it's historically something that Llama would do in games way back when. I don't think she's forced. She seems to be going out of her way to seem unhelpful; if she was forced or compelled to act this way, I would think she would make more effort to try and communicate and assist the town. She ignored all questions directed at her.

That seems like a hell of a gambit for Day 1, unless she knows she can win, dead or alive (or as part of her required role). Is anyone really that dedicated to the civ cause, to completely sacrifice a win for themselves as a civ? Or are you also suggesting she is that Jester role alongside this? This thought process doesn't compute.

You must admit that it is within zebra's repertoire though, yes?

I'm not sure whether win conditions are dead or alive here. That could impact her behavior, for sure.

I sacrificed myself in Arrested Development, and other games, but I was much more willing to do so in those instances because of dead-or-alive win conditions, so yeah, that impacts my theory's viability.

I'm suggesting the Jester role as a distinctly independent possibility; I think, if there is any mechanic at play here compelling her behavior, it's that one. Otherwise, in the absence of anything compelling, my other theory comes in.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Who hasn't yet voted and is currently around?

MovingPictures07 wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:nutella, why do you have an intent to consider a vote for Elohcin and DrumBeats? What are the nefarious intentions in DrumBeats's plan, as currently elaborated?

DrumBeats, I would like to hear some other thoughts out of you; you say you aren't against scumhunting but almost all of your posts have been about your proposal. Anything else?

Does anyone have any read or opinion on zebra or Matt shooting off their votes immediately, other than it being strange?

I guess I'll work on a rainbow list now that I'm caught up, but I still feel like the discussion has been mostly fruitless with respect to anything alignment-indicative or hunting-worthy so far. Hopefully we can change that before the deadline.

The "voting for each other" thing is reminiscent of the craziness of Biblical mafia, when two of the roles were cursed to vote each other until they were dead. I think it's too early for that sort of mechanic, perhaps, but you did ask for thoughts, and this game is pretty...secret

Regarding zebra, I was thinking about the behavior today. I wonder if she has a role where she has to act confused? Like, all the time? In a very obvious manner, like this one? It is definitely out of character/playstyle for her to be acting like this, but she's also being consistently confused about things that are not confusing, which gives me much pause. Is there a character or mechanic in the actual game that might explain the behavior? Someone also mentioned that the Process could be behind it already (can't remember who), which is something to consider. Part of me is not wanting to ignore weird behavior, but more of me says that blatantly weird behavior on Days 1 is not something mafia does - lying low is their best bet early on.

That's a possibility, but I think it's very slim. I'm not sure why Epi would design such a role in his game, especially since he knows how often weird behavior attracts lynch attention.

What perhaps is more likely, IMO anyway, is a "Jester" role, which is a role for which zebra has to get herself lynched to win. Like Sidoh in Death Note and Tofu Boy in Super Meat Boy?

However, I think the most likely explanation for this behavior is that zebra was willing to most likely sacrifice herself to be the Day 1 lynch to further the townie cause by getting people talking and exposing mafia behavior. It's the kind of gambit I can see her doing, even if it's historically something that Llama would do in games way back when. I don't think she's forced. She seems to be going out of her way to seem unhelpful; if she was forced or compelled to act this way, I would think she would make more effort to try and communicate and assist the town. She ignored all questions directed at her.

MovingPictures07 wrote:nutella, why do you have an intent to consider a vote for Elohcin and DrumBeats? What are the nefarious intentions in DrumBeats's plan, as currently elaborated?

DrumBeats, I would like to hear some other thoughts out of you; you say you aren't against scumhunting but almost all of your posts have been about your proposal. Anything else?

Does anyone have any read or opinion on zebra or Matt shooting off their votes immediately, other than it being strange?

I guess I'll work on a rainbow list now that I'm caught up, but I still feel like the discussion has been mostly fruitless with respect to anything alignment-indicative or hunting-worthy so far. Hopefully we can change that before the deadline.

Matt wrote:Does anyone truly believe that Elo thought that Wilgy was "cursed" ?

C'mon now.

Elohcin wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:

DFaraday wrote:And no, I don't think Wilgy is being very helpful either, but he does this regardless of alignment. I don't recall Zebra ever behaving this way.

DF, you hurt me!

;__;

I reccomend everyone stop voting Zebra. The easiest lynch day 1 is never mafia. 4 vote lead? Only 1.5 players actively opposing said lynch? Other options mentioned are Eloh and Matt? Perhaps DB? Yet Matt's the only other with votes on him?

Hey Eloh, compare Matt's actions this game to mine in Spirited Away for me. How do these compare?

Don't lynch Zebra she's my teammate.

I don't remember how you acted in spirited away, can you remind me?