The Syndicate

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 03, 2023 12:49 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Sat Jun 03, 2023 12:13 am Sorry for falling asleep the other night, it wouldn't have changed anything, I was on one mislynch after another.

Happy birthday @Roxy.

GG wolf team.

Bad luck town.
You played well. You went from PoE by everyone to being the NK in one phase and I did enjoy looking through your ISOs.

Sorry if I pressured you to try more than you had time for btw, that wasn't my intent. I try not to make "they should be more active/try harder" reads even as a wolf.

It's not about how I played (which was the opposite side of well by my own standards, anyway), it's about how much. I know myself, I knew I would kill my braincells with ISOs for 8-10 hours and it doesn't work, I overtoast the analysis and I just burn myself for hours and days, when I could just play Bloodborne or study.

And it was in a game in which the core town values proved to be sheeping, AtE'ing, and gambling the end result.

You didn't pressure me into anything, nobody did, I'm doing this to myself, it seems.

30 minutes tops each day, Epig-style, would be the smart playstyle.

I don't do post-game laundry, but can't help with this. Otherwise, I'm mainly sour on myself and it's a chance to reflect if this game is something I enjoy playing anymore or at least playing in the serious fashion that I can't seem to stop doing, against all good judgement.

And I want to make it clear it's an issue of policy - it's clear "who did it" or "who might do it" in this instance, but it's about "any one player would do it".

Snap voting the lylo away, MINUTES into a 48 HOUR window, invalidates the entire concept of an endgame phase and invalidates all the effort put it by other players - including your own.

It doesn't matter if you feel or know you get it right more times than not, that's still a gambler fallacy and it's an affront to waste others' chance to (play for the) win even a single game, let alone make a clear habit out of it.

I will have to drop out of Seven if the hammer mechanic will be in place and/or such players participate. It's not worth the risk. It's not worth 2-3+ weeks of playing.

That's all, cheers.

Sorry for falling asleep the other night, it wouldn't have changed anything, I was on one mislynch after another.

Happy birthday @Roxy.

GG wolf team.

Bad luck town.

I'm struggling to wrap up with Zenon, dunno what more to say atm.

Here we go.

EDIT 2hours later: jesus almighty what am I doing

Day 1
#7 asks players for playstyle
#77 townread Zenon for wanting her vote to be taken seriously
#154 townreads Epig's Roxy push for meta observations
-- #174 reads into Roxy different metas and feels off-topic issue is NAI
#161 disagrees with Rondo's suss list (herself, Roxy, Zenon)
#172 small pings on me
-- #176 votes me
-- #236 satisfied with rebuttal, moves off me
#191 early townlists Rondo, Epig and Zenon
#194 reads Lemon below null for less engaging game debut
#209 comment on possible townslip from Rondo (listing 3 wolves)
#237 moves vote on Lemon for OMGUS
#273 profiles, in convo with Rondo, several low-high wolf pairings, mostly combo's of Falcon,Lemon, Epig myself
#321 still suss on Lemon, for back-and-forth-ing with Rondo
#326 likes Zenon's reads on several (which only had Roxy as a tonal wolf read)
#371 less convinced of Lemon based on some meta angle
#374 no impression on Splints
#375 questions PSV on Porscha WR
#376 unsure of Falcon, but would worsen if Lemon flips town
-- #422 wants to observe Porscha further, sees no substance, but believes her game can grow
-- #489 no strong impression on Porscha, in fact trending down
#434 not flowing with a PSV chop
#436 sticks with Lemon (wolf tunnelling impression), though with cold feet
#456 names Falcon worthy counterwagon to Lemon
-- #518 yet states now that CFD'ing on lowest poster (was this Falcon or Splints) is not info-gaining
#544 in reply to Epig, names Porscha or Falcon pairable with Splints

Day 1 is now to be seen as too uneventful (one main wagon, lotsa scattered votes) for gaining info. But if we were to judge D1 activity alone, I'm seeing mostly consistent stuff from Thunal (or at least consistently worded / channeled). Lemon vote was initiated perhaps too snappy, but I think the wolf tunnel concept was worded in full, and the subsequent doubting and staying on is within town behaviour range. At worst, wolf Thunal could have dug a somewhat abstract angle on Lemon, yet left herself no strong alternatives to jump to - except Falcon, maybe? though even there, she closed with a non-support for inactives to be CFD'd.

Ping
Her D1 sanctioning Lemon OMGUS with an actual vote feels a bit strong, upon revisit.

Compatible pairings, if wolf
Thunal - Falcon. Enough D1 shading to count as possible distance.
Thunal - Porscha. Same during D1, shading at times, wanting to give it time at other times, then a permanent, but non-decisive shade.
Thunal - Zenon. Pushing Zenon into town territory for the faintest of tonal read, early on, this could be defensive. But this would be almost too defensive, and at least from Thunal I can expect she would not write blank sentences, as a deep wolf.

Blind: Splints, due to having her off-radar and not invested to interpret more out of her activity.

=====

[b[Day 2[/b]
#588 reads into Epig / Roxy kerkuffle and inclined to say it's not T/T and that Roxy might be wolf
-- #589 vote on Roxy for her "flippant" Epig vote
#596 updated PoE: Porscha, Splints, Falcon, Roxy
-- #598 issue with Porscha is lack of content to read as town
-- #683 bumps her to townlean for more recent activity
#685 votes Falcon, grants Roxy breather
#754 feels worse about Zenon (safe reads), but also has town pings and agrees with her ping on myself
-- #759 clarifies to Splints that it's for the Lemon sheep
#xxx pinged by my early D2 actions
#816 gets the vibe of being wrong on someone, redoes reads
-- Epig feels worse
-- picks up Falcon point on Splints
#863 reads Zenon/Splints fight T/T
#873 goes back on me
#915 switch on Epig just to shake up things
#967 unvotes
#987 reconsiders Epig as town
#1003 back on me, preferred over PSV or Porscha
#1007 explains town pings on PSV

possibly ok, if weird
-- the short switch on voting Epig. Doubt it was absolutely serious, but it actually speaks more town (i.e. having no knowledge of Epig's town status and pressuring accordingly) than wolf (in which case Epig had pocketed her, so why shake that status quo for little reason).

hmm
Falcon push less reasoned than I rembered.

ugh
-- bit crazy that all players from her D2 PoE are still in the game, i.e. none have been cleared / flipped for her

ping
-- the worst I can feel about her not voting PSV is that she stayed off for quite a while (no mentions, no chiming in), first stated preference over me vs her, and only then developed a read (town pings and such)

Evolution of compatible pairings, if wolf
w. Porscha, at worst interpretable as some defensive dodging (focusing on others) and no wagon stirring, when Epig pushed for her (Porscha's) contention
w. Falcon, possible melding to sink in Splints; voted him, but never really kept him punished for long
w. Zenon would have moved into deeper shading. But then chance to townread Zenon for AtE.
w. Splints was initially just chatter mode, then boom, full on pressure voting, bit of a stark change of tactic if w/w. But then change to townread Splints for AtE

Incompatible pairings, if wolf
Thunal - Roxy. D2 180 on Roxy being bad (and voting her) right away, I doubt they strategised for Thunal to come right off the bat, 2hours into the phase, and put pressure, vote and all that on her.

This seems to have been a much more volatile and shifting phase in Thunal's reads. I can still read this dynamic within normal town range of an active, invested player. Her case and wagon on me is probably the best argued of that phase. Shakier pushes on Falcon and Roxy.

===== god fuck this =====

Day 3
#1053 reads Porscha's EoD as wolfy
#1054 new PoE old PoE (Falcon, Porscha, myself), exception Roxy
#1061 states that Roxy's tie-breaking would be wolfy in a vacuum (for no content)
#1105 clarifies top town read of Zenon based on pings and the AtE
-- #1109 then feels worse because she advocates for CW flips over wolfreads
-- #1142 ISO on Zenon, not townread anymore
#1173 in reply to Roxy, names Porscha and Falcon likely mafia, perhaps Splints too
#1175 in reply to Roxy, seems to suss Falcon on the PSV sheep
#1176 posts ping on Splints, too (no concrete reasoning on Zenon)
#1214 new unpairings: Zenon/Splints, Zenon/myself, lesser degree Roxy/Porscha
#1217 goes back to Porscha's comment on Roxy EoD and is pinged by it; votes Porscha
#1219 Falcon ISO, does not like, entertains idea of Falcon/Splints team
#1246 vote on Falcon
#1275 comes back with a town ping on Porscha (funny reaction to a mislynch would be absurd to be produced by wolf)

townlean factor
-- Thunal doing proper ISO reads on D3; this hasn't happened on previous Days, and I don't think deep wolf THunal would have felt the need to prove herself even more or develop/finetune her reading language

Ping
-- I feel the wolf wouldn't get hands dirty and move off wagon is a tad simplistic and perhaps not compatible with this game's state. Not by default a wolf push of an idea, but I don't why she's consider this angle straight up.

Evolution of compatible pairings, if wolf
w. Porscha, no more defensive takes, instead really pushing her for the EoD move, but that would basically be doing her no favours and risk a wagon, except if she (Thunal) got the pulse that others (like myself) in fact do not entertain the idea
w. Zenon entertained the strongest town read, then went sour; though not too much or definitive
w. Falcon, keeps him in PoE range, then ISOs him in proper vote range
w. Splints, keeps her in PoE range

=========
=========

There are statistically four more townies besides me in the game. I need to believe in someone. Might as well be Thunal. The PoEs seem consistent (with just some unluck that most names have yet not been cleared). The case-making (if, at times, with wobbles and switches) seems within town-perspective range.
This is deep wolf / tinfoilitis stuff, if Thunal is not town.

Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:33 pm Anyway rico and tbunal probs unpushable and one of them dies tonight

Why do you think we should be pushed?

Don’t get what Zenon and Porscha are cooking in the past posts, with the meowing and asking Porscha to vouch for high-post Z.

Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:33 pm Anyway rico and tbunal probs unpushable and one of them dies tonight

I’m three away, what are woofs afraid of?

I wouldn’t know such meta to even infer.

Ripochet.

Does it matter now, though?

Write-up on Roxy took me 40 minutes, I know what I’m suiciding into today.

Thunal and Zenon (RIP my evening) after I get back from the concert.

Roxy

Day 1
#310 upon catch-up, immediate frustration at Epigvoting her and appealing to past knowledge; also points out to Thunal that meta arguments usually backfire in reading her, implies switching up her meta
#316 multi-quote ideas
-- disagrees with Epig's take on me
-- points out that Epig usually fumbles early meta reads
-- clears Rondo's shtick as typical
-- doesn't like Thunal clearing top posters
#407 defends against Rondo thinking her opening reaction was over the top
#439 multi-read
-- no to vote splints (absent policy)
-- points on falcon "make sense", considers him dipping out
-- concerned of Porscha lacking content
-- Epignosis "flippant"; chooses to vote here

Day 2
#655 the outburst post
#836 reads Splints 75% town
#837 open conversation with falcon about her outburst being AI
#847 uses Zenon's "faux-POE" (that's a mouthful) to create her PoE of Zenon and Epig // rescinded when Zenon clarified it was just the wagon situation
#854 pinged by my snap vote interaction with Zenon
#855 apologises to Thunal for placing her in the PoE
#865 reads Splints town for low-activity, feels she would post even less as mafia
#869 judges Zenon for potential AtE
#870 and considers that Zenon's take on her own AtE was overblown
#xxx more back and forth with Zenon, seems heated
#931 dismisses Porscha's argument on PSV
#1026 picks PSV

Day 3
#1089 critcal of Porscha moving, finds it phony
#1095 rebuttal on suspecting me: meta uncertainty from long period of absence
#1100 agrees that Zenon flip will "blow the game open" (paraphrases Zenon)
#xxxx EODs
-- Porscha messy
-- still on the fence with me
-- seems to trust Epig's adverb sniffing on Porscha
-- falcon most pingy
-- pinged by Zenon but policy town read on her AtE
#1245 new PoE, I suppose? leans falcon/Porscha, maybe Zenon

OKs
-- that she did a multi-read at her EoD1, I didn't recall this and certainly not being so multi-faceted
-- more solving D2 and D3

A bit eeeehhh
-- absolving Splints of D1 activity (for AFK), but not falcon for the same low-to-nothing activity; I can read the nuance, though, that she may have considered falcon to have done minimal work and bailed
-- bit of a double standard in judgemental towards Zenon appearing to AtE, but finding Zenon's take on her own overblown
-- really not sure why she suspected me solely for not finding any bearing and appealing to (lack of) meta

Pings
-- Where did her PoE'ing Zenon come from, all of a sudden, on D2
-- She created PoEs but didn't act on any choices
-- sus on Zenon's AtE D2 turned to benefit of doubt for repeated AtE on D3

wut?
-- How did Thunal feature in her PoE mid-D2 (#855) and why?

Personal angle
I've now revisited that Roxy basically just gambled the D2 tie-break, no other reasoning at that time. Just like with Epig, I see no reason why wolf Roxy wouldn't have picked either of those mislynches opportunities. She had more eyeballs and fence-sitting on me, so there was a tiny bit of reasoning to go by.

In a vacuum, PSV vote is the worse (worst) wagon pick for her, since she dismissed the main take on PSV. Not inclined to think Roxy isn't perceptive not to look that phony in voting a lynch she didn't agree with the case.

w!Roxy perspective
Wolf with a bad start and a really daring gambit of sending FUs and banking on town cred from it. Not the type to manage balance in activity and reads and substantiated votes, but the type to ride the wave, whatever may be

t!Roxy perspective
Pretty much the outburst. And a gradually more engaged and solvey town.

w/w compatible odds
Believe it or not, it's the first pairing with Thunal I could imagine. Just too many instances of weird pokes and distrust, enough to warrant consideration of creating bits of statements, in case she would get the chop (or, however unlikely, Thunal would).

w/w incompatible odds
Probably not wolf with Zenon, too much free poking on D2 and still plays the sus on her toDay, so too much locking into distancing and even potentially bussing the teammate.

I think my OK / Ping split comments are more eloquent than making further closing statements. Policy still tempts me to clear her for the outburst, just like I cannot conceive a w/w pairing between Zenon/Splints. But on activity alone, the acceptable is not bad, the pings are not the worst.

Don't think I will place her in the PoE today.

Porscha

Day 1
#45 some kind of banter with Zenon wrt pocketing (each other)?
#51 brushes off Rondo shtick as typical
#22 wolfreads Lemon, unreasoned or poke vote
#329 rescinds on voting Lemon, wants Zenon instead (for pocketing)
#378 ponders whether falcon is obvtown
#382 lol reacts at PSV's case on her
#473 votes Zenon, though still meta oriented & prefers a flip on her
#558 states that a Lemon townflip would be "very funny"
#559 likes Lemon's idea of a Rico lynch

Day 2
#583 parks vote on PSV and anticipates being called an omgus / #604 clarifies that it's reactive for PSV's half-hearted push and un-towny D1 play
#605 rebuttal with Thunal
#xxx Rondo kill debates, but thinks a wolf might test the straightforward theory
#629 thinks PSV is pocketing, Thunal working on a false premise (of her being polarised), and me having suboptimal conclusions
#646 reiterates wanting to lynch PSV and asks me to move on the wagon
#647 follows up that Roxy wagon would be just as ok
#714 displeased at Zenon unvoting from PSV, despite not reading them town
#716 switches to Zenon over Rondo-kill disagreements and the hammer-loving attitude
#731 pushes Zenon to act on her PoE and vote
#763 switches back to PSV, later reasoning with the TMI A-ha thing (#808)
#807 reads me pretty towny, asks thread why the sus
#928 adds Falcon and Epig to her PoE for reasons
#989 brushes off Epig's adverb test
#1008 talks with Thunal about considering that she is pocketed
#1011 pivots to Zenon counterwagon
#1015 "almost unsold" on PSV being wolf, also finds me less wolfier
#1033 final vote on Zenon after getting cold feet

Day 3
#1051 concerned about Roxy and myself, still wants to go Zenon route
#1055 rebuttal to Thunal that she fell off PSV suspicion, but could have sticked with it if it was a wolf fake case
#1056 wolfreads Zenon for AtE
#1058 wants Thunal to consider Roxy's EoD2 as wolfy
#1147 reiterates that she thought Zenon was the better odds flip out of three D2 wagons
#1153 side note on me either pocketing or being very towny
#1162 rebuttal to Zenon on suspecting her (Splints scuffle not AI, not solving, voting unreasoned)
#1205 defends falcon for sheeping (thinks he put faith into the choice)
#1223 pitches on Zenon being "spewed town" for receiving no defending from anyone
#1224 paused by Thunal's read potentially backwards
#1234 not sure what Zenon defends wrt Falcon

w!Porscha perspective
Active wolf pushing for victims and sussing a broad(er) field, not defending or pocketing too much, yet falling short of committing to long-interval reads and main wagons (OR puts a fake facade to be deemed imperfect towner).

t!Porscha perspective
Active town with some questionable or unclear case-making strategies and typical misgivings or doubting during the process. Seems to work on a PoE method, which doesn't turn out contradictory, despite the vote switches.

w/w compatible odds
Porscha - Roxy. some weak sus and finger waging at Roxy's EoD2, but nothing that seems to take shape and threaten a bus.
Porscha - Falcon. minimal shade, but at no point something do to damage. D2 PSV wagoning still on the nose

w/w nightmare odds
Porscha - Thunal. we're fracked. Thunal would technically have done distancing.

w/w incompatible odds
Porscha - Zenon. Dumbderp move to fly off PSV and push teammate into tiebreak contention. This being said, there is otherwise more stable, natural distancing language, certainly within range. But the vote still breaks logic for me, given the two-wolf format.

Huge blindspot on Porscha - Splints. Basically no content. Selected to suspect Zenon out of the Zenon - Splints infighting, makes me wonder why no perspective on Splints as well.

===

Undecided. Putting it on hold to get a better sense (or I'm just fatigued - this is my last ISO for a few hours, I got work and a concert). Both w! and t! perspective have some weight - i.e. facade or typical error-prone towning. Definitely would go town camp if her reasonings would have been more substantial. Might still tip it town-wise for the D2 switch, I still see it as dumbwolf move.

This is likely a player on which flipping Zenon would give the most info. W!Zenon insta clears Porscha. T!Zenon puts at least in contention the idea that Porscha pushed for the mislynch repeatedly.

splints

Day 1
blank. video replying with Roxy and reading Rondo's shtick normal town

Day 2
#663 reads Roxy's outburst town. smidge of implication that Epig can hound as wolf, nonetheless reads push as genuine
#666-668 round of rebuttals on being scared, out of which Zenon is most heightened reaction
#670-677 round of voting everyone
#694 hedgey suss on me and principled defense of falcon receiving inactive heat
#695 also picks on Thunal for same stuff
#703 repeats vouch for Roxy debut not being wolfie
#706 likes Porscha for principle of not wasting early phase votes on inactives / lows
#745 reads PSV good for trying to solve
#750 creates PoE of Zenon, Falcon, myself
#764 dislikes my initial PoE for and non-resolute woflreads and semantics
#824 input on why Zenon is part of her PoE
#xxx [badbadnotgood w. Zenon portion]
#917 agrees with Zenon's suspicion of me
#xxx banter with Roxy

Day 3
#1179 reads me better but also tinfoils it with meta
#1180 brushes off falcon's vote
#1184 states having reasons for suspecting Zenon, but just goes back on their fight
#1192 calls Falcon "stir potting" for w/w Zenon theory

w!Splints perspective
Not very active and focused wolf, not committing to vote their strongest suss (me on D2), sideline early voting, not poking anyone in particular (conversely, poking just one player due to meta or animosity).

w!Splints perspective
Sprawling solving townie, perhaps low on WIM due to RL and badbadnotgood stuff, unfortunate track record of committing votes where suspicions were issued.

w/w compatible odds
Double and triple question marks all around, because info is so sparse.
Maybe Splints - Roxy? most buddying and soul resonating visible (and Roxy is getting enough pass and credit for having outraged as a townie, enough to coast and not poke).
Maybe Splints - Falcon? Opposing the inactive lynch risk, but in the end poking at each other, due to realising they're both on suboptimal play cues.

w/w incompatible odds
Splints - Zenon, on policy that two-wolf team does not enact such ugly distancing.

===

Sigh. I don't sense too high pings following the recap. Her suss of me D2 might be, in fact, her most fair activity - it's not painting the right picture of my intentions (just like Thunal), but it's based on principles and stuff, and it's not uncommon (both in this game and in general) for town to get pinged and irked by small stuff. But then you have her not voting me and creating sus on Zenon and Falcon out of nothing, which looks worse.

Pending reviewing the others or new developments, I would GTH on the odds that it's a sprawling town performance. Feel worse about Falcon than her, so far.

Updating falcon

Day 1
#89 vote on Thunal with non-committed or meme reasoning
#105 Rondo weighs in on scumodds between Epig and Zenon, falcon curious why Zenon (but not why Epig)
#170 blind agreement with Epig on Rondo and Thunal being civ
#247 sheep vote on Lemon off Thunal

Day 2
#811 appeal to real-life-stuff in reply to Porscha' joke post on his activity
#812 reads Roxy AtE "exasperate town" (but also no knowledge of meta)
#813 interrogates Splints on her read on me being actual wolfread / #814 follows up with vote on Splints for not pushing inactive-pushers more
#823 interrogates PSV on wolfread and vote on me
#970 answers Porscha that PSV seems towny or "at least not scummy"
#975 reads me townier than PSV
#976 parks a Zenon vote cuz reasons?
#985 180s on PSV based of Porscha's "good catch"

Day 3
#1136 rebuttal to Roxy that town reads change a lot and that there's a progression in his votes that she ignored
#1178 votes Splints with acknowledgement of no bearing / reads Splints-Zenon w/w in follow up

This is hectic as hell. All his votes are sheeped or unreasoned. Minimal contributions and each time it's confusing ideas. So far on D3, chooses the most psych-move angle possible (that splints and zenon infighting is massive distancing).

w!Falcon perspective
Wolf with low activity / coasting mood and low energy to build proper reads and which won't recuperate, so just doubles down.

t!Falcon perspective
Town with very low optimal play and questionable tactics and ideas every step of the way. Or perhaps a 1% genius who sees through the toughest w/w scenarios imaginable.

w/w compatible odds
Falcon - Porscha with that D2 PSV wagoning, after which Porscha bailed to not reveal that both wolves' votes were sketchy. Though...A bit on the nose and suboptimal wolf play, if so.
Falcon - Roxy. Roxy's push feels kinda light and not all the way through, and Falcon responded with a(n) (untrue) "you're not seeing the full picture maan".

w/w incompatible odds
Falcon - Zenon, for that D2 blank vote that pushed Zenon even with other wagons. It would have to be very derpy wolf play to risk sinking your teammate.

Falcon - Splints interaction could be read either way. First impression was w/w, cuz of potential Falcon D2 and D3 distancing w. votes. But it could also be wolf Falcon's most consistent vote pattern, on a town Splints, a comfy sideline wagon town might not even follow ever. Or, lastly, town Falcon is vibe master and is on the money with wolf Splints.

Also of note that PSV was the only town Falcon is confirmed to have hounded. I still note that he has vibed with (or, at worst, sheeped) several townies in D1 (Rondo, Epig).

No interaction with Thunal other than a meme D1 vote and discussing other worlds in the open. Possible blindspot, very advantageous for wolf Falcon in case Thunal is the deepest wolf known to mankind or just not risking too much conversation to get strong town player look into him. (Mental note to check how Thunal approached falcon.)

===

tldr: PoE. "Scummy", if I were to describe how I feel about all his play and moves. Pending review of others on whether to lynch toDay.

Imma head into ISOs and kill myself in the process. But before that:

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 8:14 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 1:09 pm Nobody other than two wolves knows my alignment. It’s not about trusting me, it’s about reading me town or wolf - and it wolf, do you have the arguments? - or to consider me so deep in PoE that I need elimination - do you? - or at least to think my flip will get you good info to push the game forward - again, do you?
It's about more than that. A read can be wrong flips are important because info wins or loses this game. Killing someone who is barely playing this game gives limited info in a time we need the most we can get

Don't get why it's hard to answer any of three question with specifics.

Sorry, fixed quotes, I think.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 4:21 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 4:16 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 1:36 pm I mean, it makes sense to me that "as a wolf" implies that they're not a wolf this game.
This makes no sense to me. People ask plenty of time what's X's wolf meta.

Then how do you feel about Porscha?

On reasoning alone, at best an "a-ha" moment that could have made sense to her; otherwise, more sketchy.

On voting, I still don't get why wolf would wagon for so long, knowing it's a town mislynch (and a counterwagon mislynch - yeah, I know, that's just my own knowledge), and bail last minute. It's already sparked views that it's wolfy, so why bring heat based on that?

Probably a bit reverse psych, but idk, I'd stay put as wolf and face the scrutiny of my voting rather than my flaking.

I know it's pure policy, but on Splints / Zenon infighting, I'm prepared to say it's not a wolf team. There is bussing, there is distancing, there is sub-optimal teamwork, but Syndicate cultivates camaraderie and planning in most factions that know each other and work together. And Splints is especially old school Syndicate culture. This would be the most egregious kind of distancing, if it proves to be w/w, and if so, I'm willing to take the loss and move on from such an ugly tactic.

The only thing giving me pause is Splints' planting an early vote on Zenon, with no good reasoning (yes, I'm inclined to still think it so), even following their fighting. I don't think wolf Splints would have wanted to wake up to the realization that she lost her teammate on a planted vote.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 4:21 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 4:16 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 1:36 pm I mean, it makes sense to me that "as a wolf" implies that they're not a wolf this game.
This makes no sense to me. People ask plenty of time what's X's wolf meta.

Then how do you feel about Porscha?
On reasoning alone, at best an "a-ha" moment that could have made sense to her; otherwise, more sketchy.

On voting, I still don't get why wolf would wagon for so long, knowing it's a town mislynch (and a counterwagon mislynch - yeah, I know, that's just my own knowledge), and bail last minute. It's already sparked views that it's wolfy, so why bring heat based on that?

Probably a bit reverse psych, but idk, I'd stay put as wolf and face the scrutiny of my voting rather than my flaking.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 1:36 pm I mean, it makes sense to me that "as a wolf" implies that they're not a wolf this game.

This makes no sense to me. People ask plenty of time what's X's wolf meta.

fingersplints wrote: ↑Mon May 29, 2023 12:42 pm
I think they are misconstruing things said in a past mafia chat to make me look worse when it was advantageous. (The whole I’m scared to post because of friends when I wasn’t around)
I think because I was just on a team with them, I can see some of the similarities from this game and that one.

This meta ping would make more sense to me if Zenon behaved like this in the previous game as well - i.e. her misconstruing being a pattern of how she appeals to or accuses players when wolf.
Yet it doesn't sound like your profiling her as such, the accusation seems to be based solely on the infighting that happened in this game.

In short, I still don't sense how you convert(ed) "Zenon made me look worse using meta" into Zenon is wolf when doing that.

Nobody other than two wolves knows my alignment. It’s not about trusting me, it’s about reading me town or wolf - and it wolf, do you have the arguments? - or to consider me so deep in PoE that I need elimination - do you? - or at least to think my flip will get you good info to push the game forward - again, do you?

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 11:57 am
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 11:16 am I'm currently working on a Zenon ISO but I'll pop in to say voting for info, policy, or any reason other than voting the most likely wolf in f7 is a good way to lose the game. The best way to get info is to flip a wolf.
I win FX for a reason. I'm very good at it.

As wolf?

Didn’t you blew up the lylo in Secret Mafia with a snap vote, am I remembering incorrectly?

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 11:43 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 11:08 am
Zenon wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 11:01 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 9:14 am
Zenon wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 9:12 am Yeah I'm fine being in F5 but imagine your the CW in very close wagons and the other wagon is a town and the behaviors around both wagons were weird. Learning if that was T v T or S v T is super beneficial.
What do you gain from finding out my wagon was also on a mislynch path? Who will you solve f5 from it?

PSV could have self-pres’d into a tie with you, so why not apply the same with you?
Well mainly that Porscha moving off both wagons looks bad in a vacuum if it was T v T but I can also deign that wolves would scatter votes in that scenario
Well, I do go by the knowledge that it was T v T, since I am not wolf.

Scatter wolf votes among these wagons is already the likelier odds, unless the team would be Thunal / Zenon or Falcon / Roxy. Does either of these teams sound plausible to you - or general question.

Off wagon would be just Splints (who arguably voted very early and never moved) and Porscha.
But I don't know that. I can't spend time solving in this world because I need to see it for myself

I’m still asking what will you say D4 in the case of mislynching me.

If you don’t want to work on that angle, I guess that leaves what Thunal called “voting who you think is wolf” - which you have me for, what, flip-flopping early D2?

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 11:36 am
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 10:21 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 9:21 am I will note, though, if the decision is to flip both me and Zenon, in whatever order, and Zenon is town, the town is fraked.

We’re 7 left. Look into others. Look into everyone. There is time.
Yeah, I'm not at all convinced this helps town. I'm having doubts on Zenon now because her reasoning today boils down to just voting you for being the counterwagon and not even reconsidering or reevaluating based on the analysis you've given today.

I mean thread state points to this being the right play

Don’t get what you see as gamestate pointing to this.

What info do you get from mislynching me, did you answer?

Off the cuff, a Zenon townflip is probably less ideal and discerning.

It leaves to wonder if Splints was opportunistic to hound / vote her.
Falcon also a conundrum with a suss and a vote on Zenon taken later off - perhaps also opportunistic, but not hands-dirtying wolf.

Dunno if wolf Thunal would bank that much townreading on Zenon to look good post-mislynch.
Wolf Porscha probably content to have Zenon mislynched, though I still don't get why she'd bring heat for moving off PSV (and not being equally content with having had PSV mislynched).

Roxy dunno.

But I plan to revisit this, instead of writing from memory.

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 11:01 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 9:14 am
Zenon wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 9:12 am Yeah I'm fine being in F5 but imagine your the CW in very close wagons and the other wagon is a town and the behaviors around both wagons were weird. Learning if that was T v T or S v T is super beneficial.
What do you gain from finding out my wagon was also on a mislynch path? Who will you solve f5 from it?

PSV could have self-pres’d into a tie with you, so why not apply the same with you?
Well mainly that Porscha moving off both wagons looks bad in a vacuum if it was T v T but I can also deign that wolves would scatter votes in that scenario

Well, I do go by the knowledge that it was T v T, since I am not wolf.

Scatter wolf votes among these wagons is already the likelier odds, unless the team would be Thunal / Zenon or Falcon / Roxy. Does either of these teams sound plausible to you - or general question.

Off wagon would be just Splints (who arguably voted very early and never moved) and Porscha.

Roxy wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 10:36 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Mon May 29, 2023 6:40 pm Speaking of time zones, I can stay no longer than another 20 minutes, it'll be already 2am.

If the general call is to flip me and you want the easy hammer, do it.
Does a baddie say this near EoD?

2hours and 20 minutes near EoD*

I'm not a baddie in this game, but it also wasn't a ploy to get people off me. There was strong belief (and soon 3 votes) in benefit of me being flipped, and I gave in under the frustration that I had pinged so many with a nothingburger of a Zenon vote and other early phase stuff.

Roxy wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 10:38 am

Epi's last suspicion list. Wrong for sure on PSV but the others are still a question mark.

A broad list, yes, but he went further on his PoE of Porscha, PSV. Maybe less on Zenon, IIRC.

Cold feet or doubts 10-15 minutes before lynch time is not that uncommon.

It's weird, but I feel a move off wagon like this would rather be a dumb and unnecessary wolf move. PSV vote was cozy, sustained all day from Porscha, even with a few "maybe I'm wrong" in the mix.

I will note, though, if the decision is to flip both me and Zenon, in whatever order, and Zenon is town, the town is fraked.

We’re 7 left. Look into others. Look into everyone. There is time.

I will try to argue later why a Zenon flip could in fact garner info.

For one, if she is wolf, two or three players cannot be wolf, which is huge info for an f5.

Got better counter-info by blowing me up? Put it on record.

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 9:12 am Yeah I'm fine being in F5 but imagine your the CW in very close wagons and the other wagon is a town and the behaviors around both wagons were weird. Learning if that was T v T or S v T is super beneficial.

What do you gain from finding out my wagon was also on a mislynch path? Who will you solve f5 from it?

PSV could have self-pres’d into a tie with you, so why not apply the same with you?

Now that I recall, the sentiment that I wolfed out of a Zenon lynch - which was neither a real wagon at that time, nor was serious voting on my behalf - was more prevalent towards lynching me, compared to Thunal’s more in-depth reasoning.

Zenon initiated it.
Splints agreed with the suspicion - but then didn’t push for my lynch at all.
Roxy agreed with the suspicion - then didn’t suspect me as much to lynch me.

So do you genuinely think I’m wolf or just content to follow Zenon’s ping or what gives?

Why didn’t / don’t you trust me, Roxy?

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 8:46 am Potentially flipping Rico blows this game wide open

As in leaves you in f5 lylo, yeah.

@Zenon, what's your take on me, now that the stats reveal that I was nowhere near the meanie to push you to a 3-vote wagon lead?

Just to address this quickly

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 11:21 pm Fwiw, I don't think my take on your gameplay was wrong. I wasn't trying to say you were an LHF elim addict, I was concerned that you hadn't committed to many other reads while your vote was on Falcon, like your read on Epi:

From my perspective, you were often one step in advance of judging my activity.

When I parked a vote on inactive Falcon, I was clear that the gamestate had three inactives out of nine and it was worth contemplating flipping them and that it was placeholder pending better reads.
Then I snapped at Zenon, then return to the same vote and same placehold till reads mindset.

That this sequenced pinged you is fine, but this is what it is, it was not serious and it was not something to stamp me as intent to lynch inactives and skirt otherwise.

Then: end of first night (Sunday), I write short notes on several that would constitute my PoE. But I did say it was "unresearched". Splints took issue with it. You as well. Okay. But it was still far off from "not pushing my suspicions".

Then, even with time limitations, I do ISOs on Epig, Falcon and PSV. Falcon is no longer judged for inactivity, hence I don't fit the "wants to lynch inactives and push nobody else" bill anymore. And of Epig and PSV you only focus on Epig and call it unsatisfactory in deciding if he's wolf. True somewhat, but I was wary enough to not have confidence in what he was doing. I felt worse about PSV in my ISOs and that was my closest wolf read of the phase.

As a player, I am not a firm voice on tagging townies and wolves in my reads, never have been. My reads will contain a lot of doubts and turning things on both sides and what-ifs and tinfoil scenarios. If I get flak for not being decisive, I get it. Almost got me mislynched, nothing novel there either. But, as I've expressed, I find you processed all the info the wrong way and at times you projected a worse picture of my activity or demanded more than I had managed to actually deliver.

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 9:16 pm I think I am concerned with Roxy and rico the most from reading epi and like
Rico was cw
And roxy jumped on my pewr tmi read on psv

But also zenon exists idk

I’m confused by much of this.

Which part of Epig’s reading makes you concerned about Roxy and I, since Epig dropped both on EoD2.

I was counterwagon, but what of it?

And I don’t recall Roxy’s EoD vote having been reasoned, where did she votes based on your read?

Good night, Thunal.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 11:35 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 11:29 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 11:28 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 11:25 pm Idk, last minute switches or CFDs usually throw me off, makes me want to eyeball it as wolfy. But then, what logic would a wolf find in doing it and get eyeballed for it, is what I’m pondering.

Why do you say jumping off a wagon that will prove a mislynch is a “good thing” or how do you read it as a town move?
I don't read it as town. I'm saying that it might be perceived as town by the thread because Porscha's vote didn't land on the mislim.
What's your (level 1) take, then?
I didn't like it and thought it could be trying not to get her hands dirty. Specifically I didn't like that Porscha voiced disagreement about my reasons for townreading PSV without vocally pushing PSV at the time and then got off at the last minute.

Without pushing vocally PSV at what time, more exactly? Cause vote-wise she was with the vote almost all the way through.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 11:28 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2023 11:25 pm Idk, last minute switches or CFDs usually throw me off, makes me want to eyeball it as wolfy. But then, what logic would a wolf find in doing it and get eyeballed for it, is what I’m pondering.

Why do you say jumping off a wagon that will prove a mislynch is a “good thing” or how do you read it as a town move?
I don't read it as town. I'm saying that it might be perceived as town by the thread because Porscha's vote didn't land on the mislim.

What's your (level 1) take, then?

I have early activities today, so can't go right now into full details and replies.

Idk, last minute switches or CFDs usually throw me off, makes me want to eyeball it as wolfy. But then, what logic would a wolf find in doing it and get eyeballed for it, is what I’m pondering.

Why do you say jumping off a wagon that will prove a mislynch is a “good thing” or how do you read it as a town move?

Bottom line, two out of three wagons were town (PSV and myself) and were the strongest wagons during almost the entire EoD (Zenon wagon very marginal and a very last-minute push into contention). It’s likely one wolf or both was on these wagons.

How do I feel about my wagon voters’ motives?
-- Thunal voted me for a wrong picture of my gameplay or out of an over-demand that I had been serious (or more serious) in my gameplay.
-- Zenon voted me for an inaccurate or, worse, inflate picture of my gameplay.
-- PSV rip
I think Splints could have also voted me, she seemed to distrust every bit of my D2 gameplay and agreed with suspicions on me. Imagining a wolf Splints scenario, this sequence of suss’ing me but never voting me would look very sketchy and non-committal.
I think Epignosis could have also voted me off. Imagining a wolf Epignosis scenario, I can’t think of a reason why he would have spared me.

How do I feel about PSV’s voters’ motives?
-- I'm town, already proving mastery in mislynching
-- Falcon sheeped Porscha’s take on PSV
-- Roxy made a tiebreak vote, unreasoned
-- Epignosis rip also made a tiebreak vote, having profiled PSV as mafia in one prior post. As I’ve said, wolf Epignosis would have had mislynches on both scales of the balance, therefore likely not give a damn which mislynch to carry through.
-- There was also Porscha with a close-to-permanent vote on PSV. Was her reasoning (the a-ha on a potential TMI) the most enlightening and convincing? Wouldn’t say so upon re-read. But as I’ve said, a wolf Porscha not remaining content to bury PSV for good would be a very odd choice of a shady EoD move to make and be judged for.
-- There was also an early Zenon vote with no strong reasoning.

I think the PSV wagon was sketchier than mine, I would single out Zenon from mine and Falcon, Roxy from PSV’s. Hence my PoE at this point. There’s also Splints to consider as a potential wolf not getting their hands dirty, but bugger if I can tell from the votes’ angle alone.

Several curiosities and takes:

1. Porscha’s last-minute switch off the mislynch (Epignosis stated that he almost hammered it) should in all likelihood not prove a wolf move – in that, I can’t think why a wolf would make themselves look so sketchy by getting jitters on capitalizing a mislynch they had drafted as part of the PoE and stayed on for almost the entire phase. I am more accustomed (from the Anniv 4 game) to town questioning their choices and/or 180ing wagons and/or CFD’ing so last moment style – unless this move itself is one mighty psych tactic.

2. There should be almost no worlds in which Falcon or Porscha are teamed with Zenon, given how their switch votes on Zenon could have impacted her lynch (near buss scenario). Falcon made it 2-2-2, Porscha made it so Zenon could have entered a tie-break (had PSV self-pres’d) – both among the worst odds of getting their teammate chopped. There’s also Splints to add to this thought process; a wolf team-up would already be weird or unlikely to consider, given their thread infighting (worst case scenario, a quite deplorable and ugly gambit of distancing); an early buss-vote plant, with little control over how Zenon’s lynch could unfold or not, would also be an unlikely

3. Splints was active up until Epignosis unvoted (Roxy) and the state of the vote was a very spread out Rico 2 - Falcon 1 - Zenon 1 - PSV 1 - Splints 1 - Epig 1. For all their shared animosity, I think Splints failed to mention whether she in fact sees a wolf play in Zenon; on the other hand, she expressed enough displeasure, on principle or on several pings, in regards to me. So I’m puzzled as to why she did not choose to put her final vote on me, given momentum and a stronger wolfy read of me. Perhaps a wolf hesitance to cast a stamp on a mislynch.

4. Same puzzlement on why Epig never voted to flip and solve me, after a week-long placement in his PoE. He did not state that he no longer reads me wolf, just that he won’t react on principle or just give me a pass in light of a perceived taunt. But here’s the thing, since Epignosis broke the tie in the end: I don’t think wolf Epignosis would have cared one bit which way to swing between two townies, that he had crafted suspicions on.

1 PSV
#583 Porscha – seems to have been a poke-vote, with the expectation of PSV interpreting as omgus

2 Roxy – 1 PSV
Epignosis parked his vote on Roxy being “still” mafia. Thunal looks at Epig-Roxy interaction as potentially containing one wolf, deciding Roxy is the better candidate, disliking her D1 late post

2 Roxy – 1 PSV – 1 Splints
#613 Zenon parks her vote on Splints being “still mafia”

2 Roxy – 2 PSV
#635 Zenon moves to PSV, I can discern no reasoning, except maybe taking Porscha’s word that PSV pushed a “polarized” pocket read on her

2 Roxy – 2 PSV – 1 Falcon
#641 temp parked my vote on falcon for same D1 reasoning. This is also the post in which I argued that current gamestate has too many inactives, enough to not mind eliming them, if nothing changes. This was repeatedly twisted as I want nothing but lynch inactives.

3 Roxy – 1 PSV – 1 Falcon
#656 Zenon sanctions Roxy outburst

3 Roxy – 1 PSV – 1 Zenon
#662 I snap at Zenon’s Roxy vote reaction and hammer talk

3 Roxy – 1 PSV – 2 Zenon
#677 Splints does a Rondo round of votes and votes Zenon last. At this point, Zenon becomes a wagon, but not top wagon, and she claimed in accusing me that my snap vote pushed her to three.

2 Roxy – 1 PSV – 2 Zenon – 1 Falcon
#685 Thunal moves from Roxy (giving her breathing time) to Falcon (unreasoned or unclear if from an earlier reasoning)

2 Roxy – 1 PSV – 2 Falcon – 1 Zenon
#692 I move back to Falcon, which was meant just to go back to the original state of pressure voting an inactive, until pending better reads. This is also a post that got heat for not being serious hunting either way (which I never claimed it was and it sounds unreasonable to demand to have been at, like, the 10hour mark of a 48hour phase).

2 Falcon – 1 Roxy – 1 PSV – 1 Zenon – 1 Unvote
#711 Zenon unvotes off Roxy, out of frustration (? #713) of not having adequate wolfreads

2 Falcon – 2 Zenon – 1 Roxy – 1 Unvote
#716 Porscha votes Zenon for something about her Rondo reads and night kill opinion. This might also be the post that Zenon remembered having had 2 votes (thus a main wagon), but it is therefore inaccurate that my vote pushed her to “top wagon”.

3 Zenon – 2 Falcon – 1 Roxy – 1 Unvote
#736 PSV votes Zenon, deemed “question mark” and probably for an unconvincing POE (though this was probably a misunderstanding on PSV’s behalf). This is probably the post Zenon remembers having been a serious wagon, 2 votes shy of hammer.

2 Zenon – 2 Falcon – 1 Roxy – 1 Rico – 1 Unvote
#742 & #744 PSV deems me lynch-worthy, this was much later reasoned as me not having enthusiasm and not pushing stuff, which was the prevalent lynch-motive for an early phase in which I didn’t set out to push or conclude anything.

2 Zenon – 2 Falcon – 2 Rico – 1 Roxy
#748 & #749 Zenon displeased with my “shit-reason” vote and subsequent bail. As noted, she remembered faultily that my vote would have made her gain traction.

2 Falcon – 2 Rico – 1 Zenon – 1 Roxy – 1 PSV
#763 Porscha back on PSV (for…?)

2 Falcon – 2 Rico – 1 Zenon – 1 Roxy – 1 PSV – 1 Splints
#814 Falcon votes splints on defending LHF, but not sanctioning / voting pushers

3 Rico – 1 Falcon – 1 Zenon – 1 Roxy – 1 PSV – 1 Splints
#872 Voted by Thunal for not pressuring my reads

2 Rico – 1 Falcon – 1 Zenon – 1 Roxy – 1 PSV – 1 Splints – 1 Epignosis
#915 Thunal switches to Epignosis (to … shake up status quo or - #923 – having him in his PoE)

2 Rico – 1 Falcon – 1 Zenon – 1 PSV – 1 Splints – 1 Epignosis – 1 Unvote
#954 Epignosis moves to unvote, assumingly to look further (or not vote me, despite a “taunt” to do so)

2 Rico – 1 Falcon – 1 Zenon – 1 PSV – 1 Splints – 2 Unvote
#967 Thunal moves to unvote, doesn’t want pressure on Epig, not willing to push me to 3 votes

2 Rico – 2 PSV – 1 Zenon - 1 Splints – 2 Unvote
#972 Cast my final vote on PSV based off reads

2 Rico – 2 PSV – 2 Zenon - 2 Unvote
#976 Falcon makes 2-2-2 with Zenon vote, unreasoned (except that didn’t found me wolfy vs PSV)

2 Rico – 2 PSV – 2 Zenon – 1 Porscha - 1 Unvote
#984 Epignosis votes Porscha, as his PoE pick

3 PSV – 2 Rico - 1 Zenon – 1 Porscha - 1 Unvote
#985 Falcon moves on PSV based on Porscha ping (the Rondo question)

3 PSV – 3 Rico – 1 Zenon – 1 Porscha
#1003 Thunal back on me, prefers me over PSV or Porscha

4 PSV – 3 Rico – 1 Zenon – 1 Porscha
#1026 Roxy decides on PSV, just to break tie

3 PSV – 3 Rico – 2 Zenon – 1 Porscha
#1033 Porscha drops PSV and moves on Zenon (thinks it was better)

4 PSV – 3 Rico – 2 Zenon
#1037 Epignosis breaks tie to lynch PSV and seals it

Worked on this throughout the Night lock (click to open / enlarge)

Time's up for me. [VOTE: ShelterVet] aubergine

To paraphrase someone, I only need two options, until I'm proven wrong or dead.

Good night, Thunal
Good night, Epignosis.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon May 29, 2023 6:41 pm I think I'll use that free parking vote spot since I don't want to put Rico at 3 yet. My Epi vote was more to get people to look at him and look outside the d1 slankers like Roxy and Splints than a desire to have him chopped today, and now I think that pressure would be better off him than on him. He's in my PoE but I think Rico is a better chop today.

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine

I think your pick of me is the shakiest even given the terms you reasoned it.

It's less about that you want to elim inactives and more about that you're more willing to commit to pushing inactives than you are to commit to pushing others. You were more committal on Lemon yesterday but then there's a lack of actually pressuring your PoE today other than Falcon.

No proof I committed to pushing inactives for good and inflexibly. Maybe the talks on dealing with inactives long term dragged on, but don't think there was more to that.
There was a lack of me doing much of anything "today" until about 8pm local when I planned some reads and found myself already profiled the way you also believe and push my lynch for.
And whatever reads I managed do in fact work on a a PoE (partial or not) and address the LHF in new light, but nobody, including yourself, is interested or swayed.

Speaking of time zones, I can stay no longer than another 20 minutes, it'll be already 2am.

If the general call is to flip me and you want the easy hammer, do it.

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