The Syndicate

Roxy wrote:great fun little game even though I was killed off quickly I always enjoy games by Elo <3

Roxy. I may have been bad, but I did keep you alive for a few nights.

(Primarily because it looked like you were really enjoying the game, and I was happy about that).

G-Man wrote:

Epignosis wrote:Night 1, we talked a little about killing based on avatars, but decided that killing whomever we deemed likely to win the question was the better strategy. Ultimately, it pretty much came down to taking out whomever was being the loudest at Night.

Back in the day night-hiding was common but I always felt it gave an advantage to the baddies, especially in speed games where there is precious little time to engage in discussion. Too much night discussion can obviously help the baddies too but I was rarely around within an hour of the night post to talk then.

Interesting that, in a back-to-basics game, the baddies reverted to the back-to-basics tactic of intimidating civvies into being quiet at night. It also didn't hurt you guys too much that participation was hit or miss from several civvies throughout the game. I hope you guys didn't overthink your strategies and decisions too much because certain civvies made it pretty easy for you to win.

We didn't overthink. That's why llama called the night kills boring

When people have abilities, you have to think about who might have them and taking them out. When you know that no-one has any abilities and all your kills will go through, the only thing you need to think about is who you want out.

You and rico were big threats to me because you are analysts and you would have definitely used the question well.

@MP - I, for one, am glad you didn't play this game.

Black Rock wrote:

Golden wrote:

Black Rock wrote:Congratulations. I was going to go after Golden but I was killed a night early. I even tried to leave like I somewhat believed him so maybe he wouldn't kill me. I knew he must be Mafia when Llama turned civ.

I was always very wary of you. But on that last night epi asked me who I was most worried about and I was very clear - timmer. So you did a good job with that one.

You should have killed him.

Epignosis wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Epi planned to to bus me hard since d1 to gain cred, and I played along. Getting me lynched was not the goal, but we figured out that if I managed to survive long enough it would give Epi enough cred to win us the game in the long term. He was worried the question system would make the game really complicated for us so he wanted to make strategic bussing from the start.

On d2, when I made that slip with G-Man and he voted me, it became clear I was going down. So the team literally threw me under the bus. Again, I just played along.

Golden wasn't bussing me from the start like Epi was, but he did it on d2 after we decided to sacrifice me.

My friend DDL has pretty much summed it up.

Except that we did not literally throw him under a bus.

That would be painful for him.

It wasn't that we didn't want to.

Brazil is just a long way away.

Black Rock wrote:Congratulations. I was going to go after Golden but I was killed a night early. I even tried to leave like I somewhat believed him so maybe he wouldn't kill me. I knew he must be Mafia when Llama turned civ.

I was always very wary of you. But on that last night epi asked me who I was most worried about and I was very clear - timmer. So you did a good job with that one.

I don't usually plan to bus teammates. I planned Roxy's bus a bit in economics, but it was only because I wanted to hit the ground running with exactly what I have said as civ, I didn't really realise at the time it would result in her lynch. But in that moment bussing DDL was clearly the right thing to do.

Another funny - more or less the first thing I said in the chatroom was "epi and I don't stand a hope in this game. Our avatars are too obvious. Daisy and DDL, it's on you".

G-Man wrote:That was painful to watch play out. Golden, I will now vote for you automatically on Day 1 if there is no obvious baddie slip-up. As with Economics, you being bad only started to make sense to me near the very end. I never pegged Epi as a baddie. Did you guys plan to set up DDL to be steamrolled or did he come by that on his own? Either way, it was the perfect way for Epi and Golden to sink to the bottom of everyone's suspect lists.

I'm glad I was right about DDL and SD but that only helps confirm that I still totally suck as a civvie.

Well done, you two. I am about to pay you the highest compliment I can give in this game: I hate you both.

G-Man, never forget...

I won in economics because you lynched me day one

Yeah, how did MP name our entire team on day one? That was so

Hey DDL

You are now eligible for the champs game

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Also lol at MM having the info to take down Golden but never doing it because timmer was alive.

NKing BR was completely the right move. Good job you two!

Epignosis wrote:

thellama73 wrote:I told you Golden was Mafia! I'm really surprised about Epi though.

Dude, you had us feeling RUINED. We thought you had info on Golden the entire time, and we strove to lynch you anyway, knowing we would have to deal with the fallout.

Then you posted that you never got a question and we were like, "OH THANK GOD."

Oh yeah, I was gearing up for showing why it was that you hadn't got a question. Thanks for making that easier.

thellama73 wrote:I told you Golden was Mafia! I'm really surprised about Epi though.

And I told you I expected you to be lynched, and you got every other vote lol!

The day one vote - I honestly didn't keep it to save DDL, and it was only after I'd cast it that I realised how bad it looked. I really thought it would come back to bite me.

@Rico - we killed you because we thought you were probably a big long term threat, and because we thought people might vote for you to get the question on night one.

Lol DDL! That's hilarious.

Also, you guys would have been right about killing Roxy night one

We were trying to kill the people we thought most likely to get the question. Looks like we nabbed G-Man at the right time. And it's funny that MM's question basically led him straight to 'timmer or golden' at the end there.

linki Ooops, TS, not RM.

And 7/11 = 63.6%. I'm ahead of Nevinera!

timmer wrote:After all that... no absentee baddie. I sniffed out Golden on my look back at the Day 1 lynch, but I never saw Epignosis at all.

Nice job, guys!! A well-deserved win!

You really did.

I wanted to NK you last night, because I sensed you would come back and be all over me, but we went with BR because you had been more absent.

And I thought TS had a little more faith in me - I never got a question

Ricochet wrote:4/6 = 66.66%

God damnit, Golden is the devil incarnate.

I admit that right now I have the best winning percentage on RM except for those people who have won 1/1 games.

This will never last, though, Rico. Ultimately, I think you are the more driven player so I'll enjoy it while I can, and hand the throne over to you when it is time.

Yay win!

Heart in mouth. Wish elo was here.

I guess she can't technically post early though, given hedgeowl could yet theoretically turn up.

This is going to be a long 21 minutes.

Of course, if it's a ninja/epi team, we are sunk anyway. Fingers crossed.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Voting for timmer. Sorry I couldn't be around to chat.

No problem. I think we are on the same wavelength here.

I'm voting for Timmer too.

I hope ninja shows.

Come back, MM!

Turn up, ninja!

Metalmarsh89 wrote:To expound, I have tried to think of a reason that Epignosis would have come in with this wild case on Hedgeowl while also being a baddie, and I can't think of a logical one.

Yeah, I'm in the same boat, and that has me leaning towards hedgeowl.

Here is what I was thinking on my way to work.

Based on the way this has shaken out, there is only two ways I could legitimately vote and hope for this to work out.

Votes for you (MM), me and ninja are essentially off the table, since the one suspected would just vote hedge in self defence anyway. For this reason, I've decided not to ISO MM today anyway, because it's pointless.

That leaves two options.

1) Trust epi, vote for hedge
2) Vote for one of timmer and epi

Based on my reading back of everyone, I find timmer the more suspicious one.

And, looking at your time stamp, it appears your hour is nearly up. So what do you think?

I read epi back.

The thing that is most in his favour is obvious. He didn't just vote for DDL the first two days, he went after him fairly hard from the outset.

The one squiggly ear moment is that he did defend daisy as not being on team DDL.

The one interaction that seemed more or less missing was an epi/MM interaction. Given the votes that have already happened, I guess if the baddies are Epi and MM it's well played, good game.

Today's epi I find a little confusing. He simultaneously clears ninja AND suspects hedgeowl, and I can only see how he would be able to know one of those two although I think if this really is info it's more likely he asked about hedgeowl rather than ninja, giving the timing of the vote.

The thing I'm most wary of here is a ninja/epi pairing that bussed DDL. Again, if that's the pairing, like with Epi/MM, we are already in trouble.

Epi does look the most civ out of everyone I've iso'd so far, though.

OK, I'm heading back to read epi, but this is now in an interesting position where timmer has voted hedgeowl as well as epi.

Given it's lylo, I don't feel great that two votes are already in when I feel like I'm nowhere near ready to make up my mind.

I just had a look and both epi and MM only have two pages of posts.

This is so much easier to do than the other games.

I'm not seeing a whole lot there on hedge and ninja, but before doing that read back, I would have said timmer was probably the least likely person to be bad, and now I think there is a real chance he is bad.

Epi and MM have to wait for tomorrow.

Oh, who could timmer teammates be?

Well, I know I said I'm not seeing the timmer/ninja thing after reading ninja, but honestly either that combo or timmer/hedge would work. So could timmer/epi actually. The combo which seems less likely is timmer/MM. If that was a seed for timmer to come after me later, I think he was also intending to keep it open to go against MM.

But, I'll see what I think about that after I read MM.

I think I'll do MM last, because he is the person who I've already had the most focus on and I already know what I think about him.

Timmer

Did vote for daisy on day one. As far as ambivalent votes go, this one wouldn't be bad as a distancing tactic.

timmer wrote:This is the first 24 hour day game I've played in forever, I just realized the deadline is coming. I have no idea who to vote for. I don't get any bad vibes from Roxy, splints, Dragon, MP, Epig or llama. I'm going to vote for space daisy as she didn't really contribute and it's as good as a pure random for the moment.

This is actually something I find really interesting, in light of timmer's case he just made on me. This is on day five. Timmer has been mostly absent and hasn't said much up to that point, so that is not really a point in favour or against him.

timmer wrote:I've just reread the Golden/MM posts, and I'm quite ambivalent about them both. Golden is right that MM snipped his post, but MM also seems right that there were logical reasons to do so (he only wanted to comment on one part of the post). I've done this myself though I usually put a (post snipped) type of comment on it.

MM is also right that it's odd that Daisy seemed to refer to MM halfway through a post about Golden in a way that suggested a prior conversation, but I don't necessarily agree that that makes Golden look bad. Anyone could have talked to Daisy in BTSC about Golden and MM. In short, I'm not likely to vote either of them today.

Now, day five - this is after daisy has died. Timmer's view of daisy's stuff about me at that point is it doesn't necessarily make either me or MM bad, and it could have been planted as a result of conversation with anyone.

Today, he says it is evidence that either MM or I must be bad.

I think this is a pretty big turn around - timmer, why the turnaround?

Then he misinterpreted a response I made to him, and today he has made a case on me which for he most part I can understand although the last post did contain something that wasn't true. He could have simply missed it, or he could have intentionally left it out.

And that's pretty much it. There actually isn't a lot of content to timmer's posts. In his favour, he lead the daisy lynch, so like ninja he would have had to bus.

But - I think everyone should read timmer back and form their own view. Especially in light of his case for me today. Because daisy's comments about me have pinged me for a long time, I think she set out to set up a lynch of me back when she was going down, and now timmer has come back and laid down the case on me, and having read timmer back I think this could be a planned move, especially given that he specifically said he didn't find me or MM suspicious for it at the time.

Ninja

I've really not looked at ninja hardly at all since DDL died because her day one vote is so good. I still mostly feel that way. It gave him an even share of the vote lead.

I notice in the read back she was agreeing with me on MM for a time. The only person I remembered doing that was Roxy. That's interesting. She cast suspicion in MMs direction, but then voted BR.

The only thing ninja really ever says about timmer is to jump on his case for MP, but I'm not sure why that would look bad for timmer. I'll see when I read timmer, but for now, I don't see MMs case for a ninja/timmer team.

Ninja's day one vote does look good, and for me it is the biggest thing in her favour, but she never mentions daisy at all. I could see the following teams having potential

Ninja/hedgeowl (not necessarily likely, just nothing preventing it)
Ninja/MM - this one actually feels like it has merit, but it doesn't explain epi's posts today.
Ninja/epi - would require some epic bussing of DDL on day one, but if the team was going to bus DDL, I guess it's possible. Will see what I think after reading epi.

That's me for now, now the wife really DOES call. The other three of you will take more work.

Seems I have a little more time than I thought, so I'm going to start looking back at people now.

First things first - I don't feel the need to read back hedgeowl. I think epi may have quoted every single post. I don't see anything there. Right now the only thing I have is 'am I to believe epi has info on hedgeowl'. He can only have info on one out of ninja and hedge, not both, so I really don't know if he is trying to get at one of those things, or if he is just being epi.

Which is really more of a read on epi than on hedgeowl anyway. I'll come back to epi later.

I doubt hedge has been placing the kills (would she need to?) She proclaimed llama was bad when everyone else did. Not much more to see.

Now I have to keep my wife company for a bit, but I've caught up, and I have to say epi's stuff boggles my mind. And I really want to put proper work into reading everyone back. I understand that a big part of what may happen today is I need to be defensive, and that's ok, but I only have so much time and I'd really like to use a good chunk of it to read back on others.

At the point I voted, I was quite comfortable that I was no longer having to worry about self-preservation.

@timmer - there is no way I think I can make my day one vote look particularly good. I was throwing my toys at llama a bit because of the heat I was being put under in RYM87. I just didn't like that I made the best defence I could of that vote, he came back basically like 'thats a good defence', and then voted for me for the exact reason he had said before I even tried. I asked him to specifically make a particular part of the case, and he chose not to, and it was bumming.

All I can really say about my day one vote is this - I said very early on that I would be voting MP if he didn't put his avatar up. I left it as late as I could. Then I voted for MP because he hadn't. When I first flagged this, I had no idea what the vote situation was going to look like when I got to that point, but I'd signalled that's what I was going to do and I followed through, I would have no matter what, and the vote looks bad in hindsight. Que Sera.

And the best case I have for why it isn't SO bad, is that I guess any votes that came in after me, which I think were admittedly unlikely, I had no control over where they went. MP could have come in and voted DDL, is my point. He was the only remaining person who had actually shown up in the game who hadn't voted. I didn't know he would be an absentee for the lynch. He showed up only minutes after it. It's the best I can do.

Oh, another point for you though, I'm not sure you are aware of this. It's certainly not not insurmountable (PMs), but something you should be aware of if you are not already. I can't access Chatzy at work. I can't make intricate plots in the dying minutes of a lynch.

Second post - Daisy's low level pushing of me bothered me a lot, and I think it was deliberately designed to get people to try to lynch me after her. That's how it felt to me.

Linki - third post. That bit you quoted was something I said really early in the day, well before self-preservation came into it. Look here, what I said later on day one:

Golden wrote:I still was intending to vote MP for having no avatar, but I can see I may have to use my vote self-defensively, so I'm holding it for now.

And yes, I absolutely would have voted TH, DDL or anyone else as a self-preservation move.

Hey everyone. Been fully involved in endgame of RYM87. Need a short mafia break but will be in here to catch up etc later tonight.

@linki - MM, I need at least a couple of hours to do some other stuff. But yes, I know, lylo, it's important, so once I've had my little break, all my attention is here.

Oh yeah, you kind of just said that.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I think we're not allowed to talk about it the questions we ask.

Sure, but a sudden change in direction or something might signal that one was asked, it's worth looking for.

RIP llama.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Regardless, we have to get it right tomorrow. If we lynch the wrong player, mafia wins.

Also, lol at your question BR. How do you expect Golden to answer?

Yeah, this is exactly right, on both counts.

First, we have to get this right - so I'm not going to do my best not to go tunnel vision. I do think MM is bad, I really do, I think he has played a completely different game here to what I'm used to and I think so far I've only seen civvie MM, so this feels very different to me. BUT - I intend to take another look at everyone. Because there has to be two baddies out there, and yesterday I had narrowed my list to two. Now it's one, so... I need to figure out which pair could be a team.

Second - there really isn't any way to answer BR's question, other than to say that I know llama was wrong about me.

I wish I could also figure out who has had questions and who they have asked about. Because that could be really useful information right now, but I haven't really seen any sign of it at all this game (has anyone else? Am I just blind?)

thellama73 wrote:3. He expressed suspicion of me, but voted for MM anyway, early and a bit of a throwaway.

I just have to address this again before it becomes any more true than when BR posed the question...

I have been expressing suspicion of MM for ages. He is my number one suspect. I've voted for him at least twice, maybe three times. I think the only time I didn't vote for him was the Missing Person lynch and it was as much because I'd given up on anyone else actually paying attention to what I was saying, and I legitimately thought the case on Missing Person was pretty good.

It's not throwaway. I've not been going around claiming I'm voting for llama, and then voting MM..

Some quotes, anyway, from this game so far:

Golden wrote:I really think it's MM, but few others seem to see what I'm seeing.

Golden wrote:It feels like still noone is talking about MM

Golden wrote:Voting MM, because that's who I most think is bad.

And now my wife is calling me back, but there are heaps more. I ask anyone to go back and read my posts for yourselves.

thellama73 wrote:

Golden wrote: I do feel like you have played up such an obvious baddie game that the thread as a whole was against you.

Do you think I tend to play obvious baddie games when I am actually a baddie?

I don't know your tendencies when you are mafia. But to be fair, especially in a small game like this, I don't think the 'obvious baddie' card is a bad one to play.

I don't know that your 'obvious baddie' game is your style when bad, but your stuff like your posts after the NKs 'what a boring kill' etc... whether or not you are good or bad that is the kind of stuff I mean by 'obvious baddie' - you've chosen to go that way.

And *sigh* - I mean, I can't really defend the same thing over and over, but I'll ask you to do one single thing...

Show me how there is any chance that my vote for MP protects DDL.

TH wasn't playing
I guess there is a chance hedgeowl would show up, but she hadn't yet.
The only person who possibly was yet to vote and might have actually shown at that point was Missing Person, would he have voted himself?

And besides that, I literally voted so late in the day that it really wasn't leaving time for anyone to show up and vote.

Using that vote against me is like... I mean even before, I asked you specifically 'how could have I played that vote as good' and you basically conceded that point.

So how can you still use that vote as a legitimate reason to vote me? I don't understand?!

Last post on the 'expecting you to get lynched' thing, because I need to step away...

I really hate it when people try to manipulate my words. MM already did it, now you are doing it too.

You make out like it's a 'story that doesn't check out' - I was never trying to say I had counted all the votes and I didn't vote for you because I had 100% confidence that you are going to be lynched.

I do feel like you have played up such an obvious baddie game that the thread as a whole was against you.

I also do think my biggest trigger in writing that was that it's getting frustrating that after believing MM is bad all game, a lot of other people just say they aren't seeing it. He was trying to manipulate my words - that is for me as bad as it gets. In this sense I think it's true that I DO prefer an MM lynch to a llama one, but I just don't see me achieving that. And that's what was really underlying that sentence, my own defeatism. (I'll be honest, I thought I'd have had the chance to ask a question by now and check out MM for myself, and it hasn't happened. I'm wondering if it's because hardly anyone is sending in PMs and I'm already disadvantaged by sending one in and not being able to vote for myself).

I also feel like what you are trying to do right now is make people think THIS is distancing and make BR think I'm bad after you die.

And I'll just say that I didn't see llamas post before responding to BR.

Llama, I'm really not sure how to respond to what you are saying. Yes, you did make that point against me. I asked you to read back. You did and said it somewhat lessened your suspicion of me. The reason you felt better about me is because I spent half of day one saying I would vote for MP if he didn't put an avatar up and that is exactly what I did.

There was no way for me to make that vote look good - nowhere I could have placed it except on DDL who I didn't really have any suspicion of at that time. The only thing I could have done to avoid it looking bad is to have voted earlier - which I could not have done AND been fair in waiting for MP to post an avatar. I want you to tell me what you think a GOOD vote would look like for me, lets say in the circumstance MP posted an avatar with ten minutes to go? Do you really think there is such a thing?

As for the daisy stuff - what can I say? I thought Daisy's vote for me was completely out of left field, it came as a shock to me, but it turned out she had called me her 'second biggest suspect' right back at the start, something I hadn't even noticed. Her suspicion of me clearly wasn't genuine (it never felt genuine to me) and I thought and still do think it points to her being teammates with MM. Any suspicion can look like distancing if you squint hard enough.

But - you watched me play and distance from people in economics. I never defended them, and I got on the bus as soon as I could. I didn't want to leave threads for people to tug on. Can you honestly say my game here looks like that? I spent the whole first day more or less defending DDL (he reminded me of econ DDL), only to cast a vote that potentially could have helped outright save him. I then would have had to bus him late, and then I voted off Daisy when she was going down...

I'm not the droid you are looking for. If you are actually not bad, read back again, and think about it.

linki @llama - you are keeping much closer tabs on who you expect to vote for you than I am. I wasn't counting votes when I said I expect you to be lynched. But, I feel like I've been harping on about MM all game and no-one is listening, so my perspective is much more 'I don't expect people to listen and follow me in an MM vote'.

I'm voting MM because I've been suspicious of him for most of the game and think he is bad.

It is not a nefarious plot to 'keep llama alive' - either because I am his baddie teammate and want to save him or because I am bad and he is good and I want to 'save him for later'.

Black Rock wrote:

Golden wrote:I'm also interested in MM's view of llama.

I think they are bad together.

I'm voting MM.

Why not Llama? He is the more obvious choice. You keep mentioning him but avoid voting him. I find that most curious.

He is the obvious choice, and the person who I expect to be lynched today, and I'm happy with that. There is no nefarious plot in my mind to save llama. I think he and MM are bad together.

Don't forget, BR, the case made in that other game that I was your teammate because I kept mentioning you every day but not voting you. I can't vote for all my suspects at once. I've suspected MM for longer and I also think he is doing a better job at sliding under the radar and not picking up heat. But it's not because I don't want to vote llama as well.

(I will admit, though, that after yet another of those posts from llama about how uninventive the kill was, I kinda wish I'd saved my vote for him instead.)

I'm also interested in MM's view of llama.

I think they are bad together.

I'm voting MM.

RIP Roxy, I'm glad you came back from break for this one.

I think MM and llama are the last two. I've thought a bit about MM and I now think Daisy was bussed, there is enough to suggest that Daisy probably knew she would be caught for saving DDL if DDL was lynched, so from daisy's weird vote for me on day two onwards I think her behaviour and MM's was about getting MM a bit of cred back.

I'm voting missing person.

Timmer, what is your view on llama?

Golden wrote:In this vein, I think it is particularly interesting that timmer has discovered DDL denounced voting inactives when, in fact, thats exactly what he went on to do.

I think this is the sentence that confused you, so let me rephrase it.

I think it is interesting that timmer found evidence of DDL denouncing the voting of inactives. This is because DDL himself ended up going on to vote for one (MP) on that same day.

I was agreeing with your case, and thing the day one stuff you've raised is right on point. I think day one is often the best place to find good intel, its where most of the mistakes are made.

timmer wrote:Sorry Golden, are you saying I'm suspicious for commenting now on stuff from Day 1? Does the fact that I voted for a fairly inactive player on Day 1 somehow mean that I cannot now comment on the things a confirmed baddie said about NOT voting for an inactive? Or am I misunderstanding you?

No, you've completely misunderstood my post there. I'm not sure quite what you are seeing... which bit makes you think I suspect you?

RIP splints.

I've been quite busy today and what energy I had I focussed on the RYM game I'm playing because it was in lynch phase.

I suggested yesterday that DDL might have voted for MP instead of self defence because there was some momentum for it in the thread (including at least me having stated I'd vote that way) and thought it might be a good way to bus an inactive teammate and get some civ cred for it if it panned out.

In this vein, I think it is particularly interesting that timmer has discovered DDL denounced voting inactives when, in fact, thats exactly what he went on to do.

I also find llama more suspicious all the time, especially a comment like this one

thellama73 wrote:I am super unimpressed with this mafia. They are not voting to save their members and their kills are lame. I think there is at least one inactive or barely active player among them.

because it has the potential to be so self-serving, especially if it is also true.