The Syndicate

My mind explodes at the thought, but I think the useful statistic is a +/- on win rate vs expected win rate (based on every independent faction having equal chance). I've been wanting to do something like this with every Survivor contestant based on race and gender (overall vote out ratio vs expected ratio) but it's too big an idea for me.

How many of the games were 2-mafia?

I note that in a game with two mafias, civilians should only win a third, since each of the three factions should have a 1/3 shot. This means our expectation for civilians ought to be under 50% overall.

rabbit8 wrote:MP, In my hosting career I actually changed my later games on RM to a changeable vote format. I saw no real effect on the majority of lynches. I would play a game in either format. I see no difference and would let the host decide. I just see no advantage one way or the other.

I've made rather bold baddie moves in my time. I've manipulated late lynch turn arounds in both formats. So my whole argument is it is not a baddie advantage.

I agree with this. I think it advantages those who are the loudest and have most time, and disadvantages the quieter or ones with less time, whatever faction they are on.

rabbit8 wrote:I agree. I enjoy variety in baddies. I like multiple game strategy. If you're only playing to win the current game, you're not playing mafia well. In my opinion.

Rabbit taught me this. SVS too, to some extent.

Omg, I can't believe I'm about to say this... is it possible part of the reason I'm a decent mafia player because of rabbit?

S~V~S wrote:I think case building is better play than info dumping, and as Epi says, better sportsmanship. Baddies are not vermin to be caught; they are respected adversaries to be outwitted.

This brings a couple of notable spars with SVS to mind. RM Mafia. A World Reborn. Good times.

I actually agree with the answer 'strong FEBs' to some extent. At STV and RM, I feel like a lot of baddie tactics were much more unusual, almost as compensation for the lack of infodumping. You were expected not to bus, for instance, and doing so was bad form.

Here are my votes and other things I think contribute:

1) Player performance - I don't mean this as a knock against contribution, but rather simply that with a community that is so seasoned in the game baddies rarely make bad slips and yet town keep lynching people based on apparent slips, for example. Ultimately, I think a very high skill level across the board favours a higher mafia win rate, all other things being equal, because catching baddies relies on some way of establishing links or getting a baddie read and players who roll bad are combatting that more and more effectively.

2) Inactivity - I think this is a problem on two fronts: 1) It narrows the field of dangerous targets the baddies need to find a way to defuse when the inactives are towns and 2) It makes getting a lynch all but impossible when the inactives are baddies. I don't equate 'inactive' with low posting. I don't equate it with 'I'm catching up on the thread as much as I can'. I don't even equate it with 'Vompatti-style aloofness'. I equate it with 'disengaged from the game', and we've had games with 4-6 people or more who just don't even show up. I feel very blessed in my current hosting game that everyone is showing up to play. It changes everything.

3) Cultural inclination to fun over victory - because fun, for many people, is much more likely to equate to survival and getting to play the game for longer, and so discourage doing things that leave you dead. I don't think that's the only reason fun > victory leans mafia though... it's also because mafia have a lot of fun trying to meet their win con whereas civvies often generate their fun in ways other than giving their best effort to win. Having said that - I'd take our community's sense of fun over a balanced win rate, so I don't think trying to fix this is the solution.

4) Dead baddies winning when dead civilians don't. I remember at RM, being a large part of a number of civilian wins because I didn't care about winning - I was in it to win for the town. I also remember the effect of bussing when your teammates lost if they died; team thread meltdowns. You could create tension even by suspecting your teammate. I personally enjoy taking one for the team even as a baddie, but not everyone does. I think having disparate dead win conditions is significant.