Please note that these analyses are based off looking for the Inmates only. In my short time back in action, I don't think I've played enough games with serial killers (I'm assuming that's what we're classifying Moloch as) to get back in the groove of sniffing them out. This setup is very difficult because the typical mafia team (the Inmates) only has three members. Considering we caught one of those three members on Day 1, it is going to be very difficult to track the other two. We have to look for small patterns and vote sequences that might suggest a collaborative effort between two players.
Day 1 vote data is in the spoiler tag. Please look refer to it as you read over my assessments.
DAY 1 RESULTS:
1. TIMMER (Timmer)<---Player = ???? (REASON: RL keeping him out of game yet)
2. NIJU (Sloonei)<---Player = INMATE (REASON: wishy-washy on G-Man and hollow support of Llama)
3. NIJU (MM89)<---Player = ???? (REASON: No explanation given between vote #2 and #4- further reading needed)
4. G-MAN (LoRab)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Finds G-Man suspicious, no elaboration given- phrasing perhaps?)
5. SLOONEI (Niju)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Feels something is off with Sloonei)
6. ELOHCIN (Scotty)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Elo feels too light-hearted this game)
7. SCOTTY (Bass)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Buddied up to MP and not giving his own suspicions)
8. SLOONEI (Llama)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Sloonei being too defensive)
9. SLOONEI (Dragon)<---Player = ???? (REASON: [Given after he voted] Something off with Sloonei)
10. LORAB (DH)<---Player = ???? (REASON: LoRab making mountains out of molehills and calls BS on her assertion nothing is going on D1)
11. SCOTTY (MP07)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Had an a-ha moment on Scotty & his Elo vote was "weak")
12. NIJU (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN (REASON: Voted in a rush without catching up from earlier)
13. SLOONEI (Elohcin)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Some of his responses felt scummy)
14. G-MAN (Russtifinko)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Always suspects Elo so he gave her a break & voted his #2)
15. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)<---Player = ???? (REASON: "Impossible to fully address")
16. SLOONEI (espers)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Not buying Sloonei's defense- something's off)
NOT VOTING: Cookie, G-Man, Long Con
ALTERNATE FORMAT:
5. SLOONEI (Niju)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Feels something is off with Sloonei)
8. SLOONEI (Llama)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Sloonei being too defensive)
9. SLOONEI (Dragon)<---Player = ???? (REASON: [Given after he voted] Something off with Sloonei)
13. SLOONEI (Elohcin)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Some of his responses felt scummy)
16. SLOONEI (espers)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Not buying Sloonei's defense- something's off)
2. NIJU (Sloonei)<---Player = INMATE (REASON: wishy-washy on G-Man and hollow support of Llama)
3. NIJU (MM89)<---Player = ???? (REASON: No explanation given between vote #2 and #4- further reading needed)
12. NIJU (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN (REASON: Voted in a rush without catching up from earlier)
4. G-MAN (LoRab)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Finds G-Man suspicious, no elaboration given- phrasing perhaps?)
14. G-MAN (Russtifinko)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Always suspects Elo so he gave her a break & voted his #2)
6. ELOHCIN (Scotty)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Elo feels too light-hearted this game)
15. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)<---Player = ???? (REASON: "Impossible to fully address")
7. SCOTTY (Bass)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Buddied up to MP and not giving his own suspicions)
11. SCOTTY (MP07)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Had an a-ha moment on Scotty & his Elo vote was "weak")
1. TIMMER (Timmer)<---Player = ???? (REASON: RL keeping him out of game yet)
10. LORAB (DH)<---Player = ???? (REASON: LoRab making mountains out of molehills and calls BS on her assertion nothing is going on D1)
NOT VOTING:
Cookie<---Player = ????
G-Man<---Player = ????
Long Con<---Player = ????
What I infer from the
Day 1 votes:
-I'm still not sure what to make of Timmer's self-vote. I like the warning about possibly pulling a Deborah but would he try that shtick again so soon?
-I'm inclined to believe that none of the first four voters for Sloonei are Inmates. Guess Who challenged this notion, but I believe once again that a team as small as the Inmates would not be the first to either raise suspicion of a teammate or vote in a way that threatens a teammate.
-There is potential for espers to be Sloonei's teammate and he wanted to or was encouraged to throw that final vote on Sloonei for the cred. I like what espers said about feeling something was off about Sloonei. They have played elsewhere before, right? Knowing meta is a powerful item on the tool belt, so I feel compelled to respect that. This leaves me feeling only neutral on espers, unlike the other Sloonei voters.
-The Niju voters are interesting. Both Sloonei and Golden voted for her, with MM89 sandwiched in between. Golden's Civilian status destroys any notion of a save attempt on Sloonei by way of voting Niju. The question is whether or not MM89 is Sloonei's teammate. I could see teammates voting early to build momentum on a non-teammate. It's a little dangerous with such a small team but they could do the smart thing by reaching a Niju vote from different directions. Sloonei said Niju was wishy-washy on the case against me and only showed hollow support for Llama. Going back, MM89 said he found Niju's apology for a long post a bit squirrely but he voted for her without a whole lot of suspicion on anyone. That's certainly two different approached- Sloonei by way of semi-concrete reasons and MM89 by more or less shrugging his shoulders and picking someone who at least pinged him slightly.
-LoRab's vote on me came before Sloonei picked up any votes. This is important because we should look for desperate votes after the Sloonei train picks up steam. LoRab focused on the LD issue in regards to my post. I already looked suspicious before any of that because I was more aggressive, assertive, and less playful than usual. Rather than trying to use the "he's different and that's sus" angle that had been mentioned, she comes at it from an angle with a unique twist by suggesting I was trying to evade the LD power. To let my tin-foil hatted hamster out of his cage for a moment, consider this: Both Sloonei vote and LoRab's vote came before Sloonei had any votes. Sure there was discussion but could it be that the two of them are teammates and they tried to divide and conquer by voting for two potential victims that could attract more votes. Unfortunately for them, any momentum for Niju and myself died down as the momentum on Sloonei ramped up.
-Russ's vote for me was crap but not crap enough for me to shift him off of a neutral read.
-The votes for players who had none by the time Niju voted for Sloonei is of particular interest to me. Once the pressure was on Sloonei, it would make sense for there to be some desperation. Let's look at each person getting votes:
-Scotty's vote on Elo doesn't bug me that much. I feel like I understood what he was saying, much to MP07's incredulity. However, Scotty's reasons for voting for Elo takes her back down a notch to neutral for me. In Econ, she was the serial killer but she came out too hard and got caught (even though we lynched her thinking she was mafia). Could it be that she is taking the opposite approach now that she has landed herself the role of Moloch? Again, I can't see her as an Inmate because of her tie-breaking, lynch-sealing vote on Sloonei.
-Ricochet's vote on Elo came with the statement that his vote was "Impossible to fully address" at the time. We need him back in here to explain that. He's neutral but his explanation will likely change that.
-Bass's vote for Scotty was the first after Sloonei picked up a vote. He accused Scotty of being a suck-up to MP07 and not putting his own suspicions out there. Sounds like a solid-ish justification on the surface but I have to be skeptical because I feel like I trust Scotty's thoughts. I'll give Bass a slight baddie read as being a possible attempt to set up a save attempt on Sloonei by offering up another possibility.
-The next two votes coming in were for Sloonei and I see nothing wrong yet with those two voters.
-Next up is a solo vote for LoRab by DH. I can't fault him for his reasons. I agree that LoRab tried to make more out of my post than was there. Still, a mid-stack vote for someone with no votes when there is already a 3-2 race going on can look conspicuously safe. For that reason, DH remains neutral.
-After this we have MP07 joining in on Bass's vote for Scotty. MP07 went from being cordial with Scotty, to asking a question or two, to doubting the sincerity of his contributions and the soundness of his vote for Elo. He openly agrees with Bass and then adds a few more points for other people to consider. This after his suspicion of Sloonei eroded bit by bit over the course of the day. In short, MP07 seems to have built a case on why Scotty is suspicious while also posting several points on why Sloonei probably shouldn't be suspicious. All this occurs as MP07 votes for Scotty, making it a 3-2-2 race between Sloonei, Niju, and Scotty. With Niju being NK'd by the Inmates, we know that MP07 adding Scotty to the mix wasn't an attempt to save Niju. Could it have been an attempt to save Sloonei?
-No one bit on Golden's points on Scotty. The next vote was Golden's vote for Niju out of haste and ignorance to what else had developed in the thread. That tied things up and Elo made a chipper post about tying things up. Russ came in to throw a lazy vote on me (though it could have been an attempt to avoid being part of the top two lynch trains). Ricochet went all cryptic on us and then espers put one more vote on top of Sloonei's pile.
I'll post some Day 2 thoughts at lunch. There won't be as many, as Day 2 was a lost day of sorts due to the limited poll options.
and all to strive to be the perfectly-informed voter but sometimes perfect is the enemy of the good.
). We don't know Scotty's alignment so it's not really worthwhile to speculate on whether Bass's vote had value in itself.
. I too will have to check back on Timmer when I have time.
