The Syndicate

Epignosis wrote:G-Man should have never replaced MP. That salvaged the serial killer.

Walk of shame, G-Man. Walk of shame.

Do I feel bad about contributing to Jimmy's victory? Not really. My lack of understanding of what came before my subbing in certainly speaks to the dangers of subbing someone in cold so late into a post-heavy game but I can live with contributing to a serial killer victory much more than had I aided in a mafia win. Serial killers have the odds stacked against them from the start, so it's nice to see one pull it off every now and then.

It did make sense that Jimmy was the SK based on what little I gleaned from what little I read. The reason I pulled him off the poll was to force us into discussing who else might be bad. Otherwise we might have just lazy lynched Jimmy and not thought about the next baddie. I didn't want us slacking off. I also wanted to try to force the mafia into killing Jimmy. Mafia teams often seem to let the civvies deal with the serial killer because it saves them a kill. I wanted the mafia to still feel threatened.

It all bit me in the butt and taught me a lesson about cold-subbing. I probably won't do it again.

I loved all the attention to detail. I never feel adequate as a game designer, so I love seeing games with lots of secrets that don't gum up the works. Well done Rico!

Darn. That was brief.

Dinner time for a fussy toddler. Lurking at best.

Linki: in a vacuum with not context, yes. Technicolors complement posts. Posts complement technicolors. They're only half of the picture and all I've had time to play with.

Quin wrote:
G-Man wrote:Done after this one:

SLOONEI/QUIN
Day 1- 13th overall, 5th on INH. "Let's put this thing further ahead if not to bed." Verdict- strategically risky
Day 2- Missed the vote. Verdict- frustrating
Day 3- 1st overall, 1st and only on LoRab. "Making up for missing one by voting early." Verdict- convenient
Day 4- Missed the vote. Verdict- frustrating
Day 5- 5th overall, 1st and only for Scotty. "Different player, different kind of vote." Verdict- unclear
Day 6- 6th overall, 4th for Jimmy. "When in Rome." Verdict- advantageous
OVERALL: Missing votes and a change in players makes this tough. Looks like it could have the makings of a baddie but more info is needed.
Can you elaborate on your day 6 conclusion? Because this feels like a misrepresentation of my thought process.

"Do the 'vote Jimmy shuffle' because Trice said he's the SK."

Doling out a vote for Marmot. He's my #2 and my technicolors would benefit most from his passing.

I'm still opening to lynching Epineezer Scrooge though, in case anyone is interested.

Done after this one:

SLOONEI/QUIN
Day 1- 13th overall, 5th on INH. "Let's put this thing further ahead if not to bed." Verdict- strategically risky
Day 2- Missed the vote. Verdict- frustrating
Day 3- 1st overall, 1st and only on LoRab. "Making up for missing one by voting early." Verdict- convenient
Day 4- Missed the vote. Verdict- frustrating
Day 5- 5th overall, 1st and only for Scotty. "Different player, different kind of vote." Verdict- unclear
Day 6- 6th overall, 4th for Jimmy. "When in Rome." Verdict- advantageous
OVERALL: Missing votes and a change in players makes this tough. Looks like it could have the makings of a baddie but more info is needed.

Doing these by phone. Forgive any formatting differences.

SIG
Day 1- 14th overall, 6th on INH. "Late vote for the wifom." Verdict- risky
Day 2- 14th overall, 4th on Boomslang. "Late vote on the runner up because it looks good and keeps me from having blood on my hands two days in a row." Verdict- strategic
Day 3- 8th overall, 1st and only for Dom. "Sideways vote to keep me off the bad-idea lynch train. Suggests I'm disagreeing but still trying." Verdict- advantageous
Day 4- 1st overall, 1st and only for Sloonei/Quin. "Time for an early vote to mix things up." Verdict- convenient
Day 5- Missed the vote. Verdict- frustrating
Day 6- Missed the vote. Verdict- Even more frustrating
OVERALL: Tough call with the most recent days being void of votes. Not enough for me to call him bad. Need more input.

Dom, you can't think of ANY reason for Trice to falsely implicate Jimmy as the serial killer?

Done with two more:

LORAB
Day 1- Missed the vote. Can't judge too much. Verdict- frustrating
Day 2- 2nd overall, 1st for A Person. "Attack a low poster for pet peeve cover." Verdict- Convenient
Day 3- 3rd overall, 2nd for A Person. "Keep after the pet peeve." Verdict- convenient
Day 4- 7th overall, 5th for Trice. "Seems like a runaway, so let's get on it in the middle." Verdict- assuming
Day 5- 2nd overall, 1st for Trice. "Consistency and promising. I like it." Verdict- advantageous
Day 6- 7th overall, 1st and only for Marmot. "Protest the Jimmy vote in case it's all smoke screen." Verdict- strategic
OVERALL: It plays very well to LoRab's meta. She's one of the few whose meta I have filed away and this all works. She's either done a masterful job as mafia, hidden herself well as SK, or is plainly civ.

METALMARSH89
Day 1- 6th overall, 2nd on Timmer. "Let's throw a vote here and keep two trains open." Verdict- strategic
Day 2- 5th overall, 1st for Boomslang. "Let's try this and see if it sticks." Verdict- random
Day 3- 13th overall, 6th for A Person. "Self-preservation." Verdict- obvious
Day 4- 13th overall, 6th for Trice. "Self-preservation." Verdict- obvious
Day 5- 1st overall, 1st on BWT. "Let's be wacky and vote for a teammate/other civvie and keep them guessing." Verdict- Unexpected
Day 6- 1st overall, 1st on BWT. "Consistently wacky. Yeah, that's the ticket." Verdict- strategic
OVERALL: I might actually be able to see Marmot as a possible SK now as well as mafia. Those self-preservation votes make it a smidge harder to read into than Epi.

Dropping my technicolors again at the top here for reference purposes. Below them are write-ups of what came to my mind when I read through the votes of living players looking for potential badness.

DAY 1

Spoiler: show

DAY 2

Spoiler: show

DAY 3

Spoiler: show

DAY 4

Spoiler: show

DAY 5

Spoiler: show

DAY 6

Spoiler: show

BIRDWITTEETH/DRWILGY 2.0
Day 1- Hard pressed to fault someone for missing a vote Day 1 but if you sign up, you should play. Verdict- frustrating.
Day 2- 9th overall, 3rd for Boomslang. "A Person didn't really catch on today, so let's nudge Boomslang out there as the leader." Verdict- sneaky
Day 3- 4th overall, 3rd for A Person. "Looks like we can make this A Person train a thing today." Verdict- advantageous
Day 4- 9th overall, 3rd for Marmot. "Don't want to hop on the Trice train too late, and this Marmot thing may get interesting, so let's go there." Verdict- strategic
Day 5 & 6- Missed the vote. It feels like BWT has a tendency to either show up late or disappear partway into a game. I can't really judge that. Verdict-

OVERALL: His three votes are very well placed. In a vacuum, it looks shady but he's buffered by those three missing votes. That either helps a baddie hide or makes a civvie look worse.

DOM
Day 1- Missed the vote. Hard to judge. Verdict- frustrating
Day 2- 12th overall, 4th for DrWilgy 1.0. "Plenty of votes to come in yet, so let's nudge Wilgy ahead and let the rest of them decide the day and take the heat for it." Verdict- assuming
Day 3- 12th overall, 1st and only for BWT. "Keeping my hands clean on the A Person train but I don't want to tie it and draw suspicion. Better vote sideways." Verdict- strategic
Day 4- 5th vote overall, 4th for Trice. "Better hop on the Trice train while it's still early." Verdict- convenient
Day 5- 7th overall, 4th for Trice. "Looks good to vote him again." Could also be, "Vote him again to nudge him two ahead of a teammate (BWT)." Verdict- strategically consistent
Day 6- 3rd overall, 2nd for Jimmy. "A day spent chasing Trice's SK accusation is a day I can relax." Verdict- convenient
OVERALL: Two strategic votes are worth considering but it's not a sure thing. The convenient votes cut both ways. Consistent votes also cut both ways.

EPIGNOSIS
Day 1- 9th overall, 1st and only for Trice. "Take the higher ground by not voting for an existing train to help my case." Verdict- strategic
Day 2- 11th overall, 3rd for DrWilgy 1.0. "Why have a runaway civ train on Boomslang when you can have competing civ trains?" Verdict- strategic
Day 3- Missed the vote. I can't fault him because stuff happens but it helps because the A Person train looked awful from a vote perspective. Verdict- neutral
Day 4- 2nd overall, 1st for Trice. "I voted for him once and I can make myself look good if others follow me on this one." Verdict- advantageous
Day 5- 9th overall, 5th for Trice. "Consistency, consistency, consistency. And it keeps the SK from getting a teammate." Verdict- obvious
Day 6- 9th overall, 6th for Jimmy. "Well duh." Verdict- obvious
OVERALL: There's not much to like here but I do have a tendency to read Epi like a James Bond villain.

JAGGEDJIMMYJAY
Day 1- 4th overall, 2nd for INH. "Might as well nudge one of these three into the lead." Verdict- opportunisitc
Day 2- 7th overall, 1st for DrWilgy 1.0. "None of the others satisfy me, so let's try this." Verdict- risky
Day 3- 11th overall, 5th for A Person. "I'm not afraid to break a tie because I can talk my way out of any heat that may come of it." Verdict- risky
Day 4- 4th overall, 3rd for Trice. "Let's see if we can get others on board and make this a runaway train." Verdict- advantageous
Day 5- 3rd overall, 2nd for Trice. "Consistent and persistent- that's the Jimmy way." Verdict- vengeful (if Trice claimed against him already); otherwise opportunisitc
Day 6- 4th overall, 2nd for BWT. "Self-preservation mode... engage!" Verdict- obvious
OVERALL: It's the two risky votes that steer me away from him as mafia. Why go that route?

I'll try to work on the other four later this afternoon. Gotta get back to work.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
G-Man wrote:I realize it was an odd question ask (what people felt about the player I subbed in for) but I was curious to know if I had room to breathe at first or if I would have to launch into razzle-dazzle-don't-lynch-me mode right out of the gate. Mental preparation, you know?
If you had joined the game and been thrust into razzle-dazzle-don't-lynch-me mode, what would your posts have looked like? How would you have approached that?

"Dammit! Thanks a lot MP.

Serves me right for subbing into a Postapalooza game." And other such crankiness. Then if it looked like I was destined to be the next lynch, I'd have probably shut down all constructive content and goofed off like I did in Bullets Over Broadway.

Quin wrote:I don't like G-Man questioning where he stood when he subbed in in terms of MP's reputation. Civ-minded folk don't care about that.

Does that make you suspect me more as mafia or a serial killer? Or does it just give you general baddie vibes? Did you determine that MP had potential SK vibes before or after my arrival? You reference his "POE stunt." Do you recall what day he did that on? If so, I can go back and take a look at it.

I realize it was an odd question ask (what people felt about the player I subbed in for) but I was curious to know if I had room to breathe at first or if I would have to launch into razzle-dazzle-don't-lynch-me mode right out of the gate. Mental preparation, you know?

LoRab wrote:(nor am I sure that I buy that he didn't know for whom he was subbing in, while he was reading back a few pages, and considering if he was going to sub in).

It's true. The Day 5 lynch post dropped at 11:43 pm. I discovered I subbed in for MP but hadn't gotten my role card yet. I PM'd our host for the down-low and went to bed. He sent me the role card a few minutes later but I was already in bed.

And now for those vote reads...

Drafting some more responses and brief vote readings as I have time here and there this morning. Hoping to post most of it at lunch.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:G-Man, could you point to specific vote(s) from Epignosis you didn't like and vote(s) from me you did like and explain what circumstances of those votes led you to your conclusions?

Definitely will write it up for you tomorrow. I have to hit the sack right now. When I look at the votes, basically I try to read through each player's votes as if they were bad. Those whose vote histories are easier to read through as bad end up lower on my list. The key is that I'm looking for possible teammate behavior. The tinfoil factor can run high at times but I've come to put less faith in tinfoil-heavy reads.

Epignosis wrote:
G-Man wrote:Doing the sheeple thing and voting Jimmy. Epi's case is intriguing but speculative. Sometimes you have to go with speculative in order to break a game your way. Jimmy's votes don't look good or bad, which gives me pause, but I also haven't had enough proper time to dig through them all to look for tinfoil patterns. I can see them as the intentional work of a baddie or the unintentional work of a civvie but not the intentional work of a civvie.
I know you just got here, but this post reeks of trying too hard to say very little.

First, I don't really have a "case" against 3J. Somebody who knows who the serial killer is called 3J the serial killer. That's about all there is to that.

Second, if 3J is the serial killer, how is looking at his votes is a useful way to spend your time? If you've read my "case," then your comment about 3J's votes doesn't make sense.

Third, that last sentence...

During the time when I was on notice to join the game, I peeked at the last page or two of discussion before the lynch post. I also skimmed during my first day in the game due to time constraints. What stood out to me the most was a lot of you going apeshit about serial killers and trying to convince people to lynch Jimmy because of Trice. 'Case' is lazy word choice on my part but your intensity and conviction won me over.

I think what I said about Jimmy's votes made perfect sense. Technicolor analysis doesn't work for serial killers unless you spot someone trying to be blendy the whole game. Jimmy's vote record looks pretty good in the way a baddie might try to time and place their votes or the way a civvie unintentionally places their votes. But Jimmy's votes also don't have the flavor of teammate behavior when you run through them. That's why he ranks so high. Technicolors help me hunt for teammate behavior and coordination in the votes. Kind of like why your votes look like crap. Few if anyone has stuck up for you since I asked for input and context.

In a vacuum, your votes suck. I can read lots of baddie and teammate behavior in them but that's just one piece of the puzzle. Unfortunately, it's the only piece of the puzzle I've had time to digest so far.

Devoting the rest of my time today to the other game I'm in. I'll check in tonight during Monday Night Football.

Deaths have been added to my technicolors:

DAY 1

Spoiler: show

DAY 2

Spoiler: show

DAY 3

Spoiler: show

DAY 4

Spoiler: show

DAY 5

Spoiler: show

DAY 6

Spoiler: show

My previous ranking for voting records (best to worst):
LoRab
Metalmarsh89
Sloonei/Quin
JaggedJimmyJay
Scotty
Sig
Birdwithteeth11/DrWilgy 2.0
Dom
Timmer
Epignosis

New rankings (best to worst):

JaggedJimmyJay
LoRab
Sig
Dom
Sloonei/Quin
Birdwithteeth11/DrWilgy 2.0
Metalmarsh89
Epignosis

Jimmy's votes don't look like teammate behavior at all, so I can still get on board with him as a serial killer. Technicolor vote analysis doesn't really work for SK hunting, just mafia teammate hunting.

My biggest suspects coming out of this are Epi, MM89, and Wilgy 2.0 but two of those three got hit with silly sticks it seems. Does anyone have anything positive to say about those three based on game content? I don't want to be barking up the wrong tree and cost the civvies the game. Nothing sucks the fun out like a replacement player who hands the game to the baddies on a silver platter.

I think my technicolors would gain the most from lynching Metalmarsh. Would anyone like to tell me why that's not a good idea (aside from his insanification).

Doing an early Christmas at my grandma's house this afternoon. I should have time this evening to elaborate on my list.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:@G-Man, I think trice is considered a civilian. His role is revealed either when he's checked by Motherfucker/Redeemer, when he is lynched, when ALFOTHAD dies, or when recruited. Since it was revealed upon trice's death, he could not have been recruited (I think we all realize this lol).

But also, the setlist has him listed in pink and green, which are the Indy and civilian colors respectively.

Danke schön. I'll edit that with my next batch if I'm alive after the night post.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I don't think I've ever been alive for your technicolor votes. What do you usually do with them?

I use them to look for potential patterns in the votes. Sometimes they reveal early-voting baddies and other times they revel patient baddies who wait out the day. They can also be used to look for things that can be debated as to whether they are coincidental or not (for instance, everyone but MP/me that voted for you on Day 3 is now dead via NK. Kind of odd but the oddity is offset by the fact that those NK's are a blend of SK and Mafia.

As more people die, it becomes a more useful form of POE. You start to see who is left, whom they voted for, and when they voted. It's not 100% effective but it's served me well in the handful of games that I've employed it.

In this game, the amount of missed votes, non-lynches, and no-kill nights makes it hard to be confident about anything just yet but here is a list of the ten of you ranked from best-looking votes to worst-looking votes. Keep in mind that this is in a vacuum without thread context, so a dash of tinfoil always goes into interpreting votes like this:

LoRab
Metalmarsh89
Sloonei/Quin
JaggedJimmyJay
Scotty
Sig
Birdwithteeth11
Dom
Timmer
Epignosis

Did some technicolors. I forgot how long these things take. I have to give my daughter her bottle and then I will crunch this data as well. Look them over and share your thoughts!

DAY 1

Spoiler: show

DAY 2

Spoiler: show

DAY 3

Spoiler: show

DAY 4

Spoiler: show

DAY 5

Spoiler: show

DAY 6

Spoiler: show

Doing the sheeple thing and voting Jimmy. Epi's case is intriguing but speculative. Sometimes you have to go with speculative in order to break a game your way. Jimmy's votes don't look good or bad, which gives me pause, but I also haven't had enough proper time to dig through them all to look for tinfoil patterns. I can see them as the intentional work of a baddie or the unintentional work of a civvie but not the intentional work of a civvie.

Desperation is what I'm getting from Jimmy's post this phase. I'm having trouble, though, figuring out if he is desperate just not to die in general or if he does have genuine concern about this game going quiet without him.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Based on all those checks, here's a loose order of how likely I feel each remaining player is to be the SK, from most likely to least likely:

G-Man
BWT
MM
Scotty
LoRab
sig
Quin
timmer
Epignosis
Dom

Dude. Branding the new guy the serial killer when he lacks the time and resources to disprove such an accusation is lame. That being said, I'm also curious about the case on BWT. Can anyone fill me in on that?

Didn't have much time for catching up on the points I specified. Still working through MP's recent suspicions. I can't comment on vote analysis just yet as I have not gone full technicolor on the votes yet. I could only lay the foundations of my spreadsheet at lunch today.

Dang. I wasn't told who I was subbing in for beforehand. I thought it would be a low-poster. Nope! I sub in for Sockeface McMotormouth.

Can anyone give me an objective take on where you all stood on MP? I'd like to know where I'm bellyflopping into this game on the spectrum of super-civ to prime lynch candidate.

I'll pull together what I can from the votes but I have no intention of reading the game thread in full. Heck I may not even have time to read through MP's ISO to gather all of his thoughts.

The Syndicate

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