The Syndicate

On the few times it happened at the beginning of the game, I felt it gave the civvies an unfair advantage to analyze posts during that lag. They civ-cleard a few people based on their reactions and responses, and I think zeroed in on one of the baddies. It was an unnatural pause that gave a considerable boost to the civvies who figured out how to use it to their advantage. I felt that it wasn’t fair to the baddies to have to navigate that because they normally wouldn’t have to.

juliets wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:08 am Maybe it was so late by the time LC was ready to post that he decided to hold off so the new time would not be in the middle of the night.

Optimistic but also problematic. I remember during Polka Heist how civvies started analyzing the posts during the lag between end of phase and the lynch/night post. That’s why I started locking the thread during those lag times.

Odd to see no host post yet. Like Tom Petty sang, the waiting is the hardest part.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:50 pm I've voted for scum 3 days out of 3 and that makes me a red read. Multiball is weird.

Only one side of the multi-ball. Wouldn’t you find that curious if it were someone other than you?

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:51 pm I don't know why I'm waiting to talk this over with [mention]G-Man[/mention] when he thinks I'm orange.

Orange within the confined of of this mini-thread. I tried to make it as yellow-orange as possible, because there's a wide gap between you and my bottom two. The first color that I selected for your name looked funny. This is the best I got.

Now for the details:

G-Man

Duh.

Michelle

I kept her in yellow-green, because I realize that the data we're working with is limited. Between her D1 vote for Radish and what Sloonei wrote about incompatibility with Team Mac, I just don't see her as bad. I have little to feel good about her, but I have nothing to feel bad about her. Did she get testy during D4? Yes, but I read her snips and snaps more as frustration than baddie venom rising to the surface. If she is bad, then I've entered the Useful Idiot stage that I hoped to avoid.

JaggedJimmyJay
I'm going to have to revisit his D1 posts (if I have time), because I just don't know what to make of him. He's distracted by grad work. I get that. I've just never seen distracted Jay before, I guess. He's been content to be more of an observer than an active force today, which weirds me out, but I'm trying to not tin-foil and accuse him of coasting in the shadow of a busy RL.

Juliets
First, I can't remember how many times I've seen baddie juliets. She has seemed agreeable and non-committal, but that's also sort of how juliets operates, I think. This is more of a tin-foil read, because I still think that one of JJJ, Sloonei, or Juliets is compatible with Team Mac based on rough vote analysis alone. That's always been where my gut goes to.

Sloonei & Speedchuck
These two are tied. I can't shake the idea that Sloonei tried to set me up early, but he recovered well enough as juicier options came to light. He's on my vote analysis watch list too. There's just something I don't like about him this game. He's a great player and he knows how to string a post together. I recognize and am wary of his skills. Speedchuck's vote pattern strikes me as Mac-aligned, but it is incomplete because he didn't get to vote D1. His posts seem more desperate in trying to walk back suspicion of him. Also, who forgets who they voted for the day before? I feel like that's shady.

I'm willing to vote for Speedchuck, because I don't see anyone joining me against Sloonei. If not Speedchuck, then I'll be inclined to pressure Sloonei more tomorrow.

linki- well, then, there we all are, I guess?

Okay, here’s my pecking order:

G-Man

Michelle

JaggedJimmyJay

Juliets

Sloonei & Speedchuck

More after the kids are in bed (which should have been 30 minutes ago )

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:01 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:55 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:54 pm We have this thread.

Of course we do. Part of that thread is the vote data that I posted. Ignoring it would be unwise.

I do not propose that we ignore it. I’m just saying that it’s an incomplete picture for me.

Based on the content in this thread alone, I like the direction of Michelle’s posts better than speedchuck’s, if that serves as an answer to your question.

On the issue of Speed and Michelle, your opinion of Michelle has gotten worse. How has your opinion of Speedchuck changed, if at all?

Oh, hi there, [mention]juliets[/mention], earlier in the day, you agreed that Michelle looked somewhat incompatible with Mac/Team Master. Your vote and my vote remain to be cast. Does Michelle strike you as Anti-Monitor-compatible? If not, where are you leaning? I’m on page 2 and I’m starting to doubt Michelle is bad. I’ll see how her sum total tone reads though.

Okay, why would Anti-Monitor Michelle vote for teammate Radish on Day 1 when she has no reason to? There was a perfectly good opportunity to vote for someone else. Unless she was going to change her vote but didn’t get the chance to when D1 ended early, I am skeptical of her being Anti-Monitor.

Okay, [mention]Sloonei[/mention], I see in one of your first posts a mention of a possible miscommunication between Mac and Michelle that made it difficult for you to see them as teammate-compatible.

Also, the face that you were mid-ISO of Mac when the Inceptioning happened, I think that lends credibility to the supposition that Michelle could have been mid-speedchuck ISO when it happened too.

Noting this now as I start my re-read. I want to keep this info in mind as I get to the compatibility theories late on here.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:07 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:33 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:45 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:35 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:21 pm Juliets and Jay have been town reads of varying strength for me. Given that we can’t see the other thread today, I have a hard time seeing myself being persuaded to vote for either of them based purely on this thread’s content. They’d need to tell us all they’re mafia for me to do that.

Only seven hours to go. Does this post suggest that you are only considering Speed and Michelle at this point, or am I still an option as well?

My problem is that I had no read on Michelle or Speed before we got Inceptioned. I can construct cases on all five of you based on the votes. I’m going to re-read this whole mini-thread before the deadline to see who’s got the worst combination of vote analysis tin foil and potential insincerity.

You’re not completely off the table, but Michelle is my first choice at the moment followed by speedchuck. You’re a distant third with no alarm bells telling me to reconsider.

I’m not sure how much this lynch actually matters.

Outting a baddie in a lynch post might matter. How did lynches work in your game? Did dreamland lynches reveal roles or just kick that player up a level?

No reveals. We just kicked people back up a level.

We also had private voting, and no deaths/kicks were revealed until after the night phase ended. That way the lynched player and the nightkilled player would go back up together with no indication which one was which. We did this to obscure the mafia team’s nightkill target, as revealing that info would have pseudo-confirmed that player as a civilian. We don’t have private voting here, so the mechanics are not identical. This could just be an indication that we’re only here for one phase.

Ok, rats. If this follows that same structure, I may be underwhelmed by this lynch. I was hoping for a lot of info reveals.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:45 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:35 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:21 pm Juliets and Jay have been town reads of varying strength for me. Given that we can’t see the other thread today, I have a hard time seeing myself being persuaded to vote for either of them based purely on this thread’s content. They’d need to tell us all they’re mafia for me to do that.

Only seven hours to go. Does this post suggest that you are only considering Speed and Michelle at this point, or am I still an option as well?

My problem is that I had no read on Michelle or Speed before we got Inceptioned. I can construct cases on all five of you based on the votes. I’m going to re-read this whole mini-thread before the deadline to see who’s got the worst combination of vote analysis tin foil and potential insincerity.

You’re not completely off the table, but Michelle is my first choice at the moment followed by speedchuck. You’re a distant third with no alarm bells telling me to reconsider.

I’m not sure how much this lynch actually matters.

Outting a baddie in a lynch post might matter. How did lynches work in your game? Did dreamland lynches reveal roles or just kick that player up a level?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:21 pm Juliets and Jay have been town reads of varying strength for me. Given that we can’t see the other thread today, I have a hard time seeing myself being persuaded to vote for either of them based purely on this thread’s content. They’d need to tell us all they’re mafia for me to do that.

Only seven hours to go. Does this post suggest that you are only considering Speed and Michelle at this point, or am I still an option as well?

My problem is that I had no read on Michelle or Speed before we got Inceptioned. I can construct cases on all five of you based on the votes. I’m going to re-read this whole mini-thread before the deadline to see who’s got the worst combination of vote analysis tin foil and potential insincerity.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:24 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:59 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:50 pm G-Man, sorry if you answered this in the main thread, I just don't remember it. What made you change your vote toward the end of EOD from sig to Mac?

On Day 3, everyone piled on Mac right away. That led Mac to amplify his griping. He made a lot of hot noise (which, in retrospect, helped provide cover for his teammates) but then the sig thing dropped. I went with Dyslexicon’s from-the-grave case against sig because I had a sharp turnaround on Dys early Day 2.

In the end, I switched back to Mac to keep things spicy at EoD and because I really didn’t want to hear Mac rant against the world for another day.

Could you elaborate on the highlighted bit?

Of all the stuff that happened Day 3, all I remember is the Mac noise and the rise of the sig train. I don’t remember any of the discussion about ‘if Mac, then ____’ or even the same for sig. That’s a win in a normal game for the baddies in the short-term, but even more so now that we’re split up with no access to the original thread to look back at. Granted, I’m not as engaged as some players, but anything that drowns out advancing the game helps the baddies.

Oddball thought process time- if lynching someone kicks them up a level, should we really try to keep our baddie suspect trapped here in dream land? Maybe the Inception hosts can speak to that. The hamster in my brain is running wild about this structure right now.

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:50 pm G-Man, sorry if you answered this in the main thread, I just don't remember it. What made you change your vote toward the end of EOD from sig to Mac?

On Day 3, everyone piled on Mac right away. That led Mac to amplify his griping. He made a lot of hot noise (which, in retrospect, helped provide cover for his teammates) but then the sig thing dropped. I went with Dyslexicon’s from-the-grave case against sig because I had a sharp turnaround on Dys early Day 2.

In the end, I switched back to Mac to keep things spicy at EoD and because I really didn’t want to hear Mac rant against the world for another day.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:54 pm We have this thread.

Of course we do. Part of that thread is the vote data that I posted. Ignoring it would be unwise.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:47 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:40 pm Other behavior to consider:

-Michelle voted for Mac on D3 when it was ‘obvious’ to vote for him. On D2, she voted away from the two lead trains.

-Speed voted for Mac on D2 when voting Mac was less of a sure thing. On D3, he hopped aboard the Sig Express.

Which is more likely- a baddie voting away from a teammate on D2 when they’re not exposed but then soft bussing the day it helps to fit into the crowd, or voting for your teammate on a day when you don’t really have to but then chasing the new hottness that might buy your teammate another day?

Neither scenario is impossible, especially in a game like this one. A teammate could decide in one moment that bussing is a good idea, but then later decide that they can take advantage of the viable counterwagon. Without access to the actual game thread, I can’t really judge these votes.

Oh, but we must. There’s not a ‘no lynch’ option, so we have to use what we have to make a decision.

Other behavior to consider:

-Michelle voted for Mac on D3 when it was ‘obvious’ to vote for him. On D2, she voted away from the two lead trains.

-Speed voted for Mac on D2 when voting Mac was less of a sure thing. On D3, he hopped aboard the Sig Express.

Which is more likely- a baddie voting away from a teammate on D2 when they’re not exposed but then soft bussing the day it helps to fit into the crowd, or voting for your teammate on a day when you don’t really have to but then chasing the new hottness that might buy your teammate another day?

On Day1, we know that Team Master had it easy. It was Team Anti vs 3P. Day 2 Mac was a suspect but not as glaringly as on Day 3. I suspect that Team Master was more likely to have a member or two voting on the Mac train to stay blended in the crowd.

Unknown Day 2 Radish (Team Anti) Voters:
-Tony
-JJJ
-Sloonei
-Epi
-Juliets
-Colin
-Turnip


Unknown Day 3 Sig (Team Anti) Voters:
-Colin
-Sloonei
-Dom
-Speed
-JJJ
-Juliets


So if we assume that there is a baddie in our midst, then there’s a higher probability of him or her being on Team Master.

My rough vote analysis suggests to me that it’s one of Juliets, JJJ, and Sloonei because of their two-day ‘avoidance’ of Team Master trains.

Thoughts?

Oh, scary thought. What if we’re all on the poll in the other threads but we can only see us because we’re the only ones this deep down? Maybe Jay and Sloonei can speak to that if their Inception game worked that way.

Only going off of the color-coded votes, I make the following observations:

-JJJ and Sloonei have voted on the same train all three days.

-All of JJJ and Sloonei’s votes have been for members of Team Anti-Monitor. This makes them both compatible with Team Master.

-Michelle voted once for both baddie teams and once for an unconfirmed player. This makes her hard to read.

-Looks like Day 1 ended before Speed, Juliets, and I voted. This makes analysis hard as well.

-Juliets D2 and D3 voted were for Team Anti-Monitor.

-Speed’s two votes are split across the two baddie teams. That muddies the waters.

-I voted for an unconfirmed and bounced between sig and Mac D3. Good luck with that.

On a whim, I took a screenshot of one of Michelle's posts to help me start to straighten out the multi-team suspicions. Here's Michelle's data, updated with the latest night post results:

Red = Team Master
Purple = Team Anti-Monitor
Orange = 3P
Green = Civvie

Day 1:
1 DIZZY - Tony
1 JACK - Sprityo
1 JJJ - Radishes
6 RADISHES - JJJ, Ted, SVS, Michelle, Sloonei, Dizzy
1 NANOOK01 - Sig
6 NUTELLA01- Nanook01, Turnip, Sabie, Jack, Mac, Dom
2 SPEED - Epi, Nutella01



Day 2:
1 G-MAN - Ted
7 MAC - Speed, Sig, Jack, Dom, Sabie, Sprityo, Nanook02
9 RADISHES - Tony, JJJ, SVS, Sloonei, Epi, Juliets, Mac, Colin, Turnip
2 SLOONEI - Dizzy, G-Man
3 TURNIP - Michelle, Tranq, Radishes



Day 3:
2 JACK - Turnip, Mac
10 MAC - Ted, Tony, G-Man, Jack, Michelle, Nanook02, Sig, Sprityo, Epi, Tranq
8 SIG - Colin, SVS, Sloonei, Dom, Speed, Nutella02, JJJ, Juliets



Sig being the Architect allows us to fill in his color along with the civvies who died last night. That leaves just one on Team Anti-Monitor (the titular role) and three still unknown from Team Master.

Let's all look at this and digest it a bit. This Inception stuff just splits us up. It didn't change alignment (at least not mine). I'll post some observations relevant to this group tomorrow.

Off to wash some dishes. I will work up that color coding after my wife heads to bed.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:26 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:24 pm Okay then. Let’s make a pact to lynch me in the abscess of figuring anything out. I feel like there isn’t an obvious suspect among us.

I did manage to take a screenshot of a post Michelle made, color-coding the first three lynches. I can try to recreate that here. That might help us.

The roles listed suggest SVS and nutella 2 were civ and sig bad, so I will start there.

I'm against any plan that suggests we shouldn't scum hunt.

That said, we could see what happens if we try to lynch G-man by a tally of 3-2.

Ok, but there’s six of us. How do you plan on getting that sixth vote elsewhere? Trust?

Oh jeepers.

Absence, not abscess.

Okay then. Let’s make a pact to lynch me in the abscess of figuring anything out. I feel like there isn’t an obvious suspect among us.

I did manage to take a screenshot of a post Michelle made, color-coding the first three lynches. I can try to recreate that here. That might help us.

The roles listed suggest SVS and nutella 2 were civ and sig bad, so I will start there.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:15 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:10 pm Okay, so I have no read on speedchuck or Michelle. Juliets pinged me during my skimming early on but got lost in the Mac vs the World shuffle. Jay started the game seeming off to me (vibes only, really). Sloonei, it felt like you were trying early on to set me up by suggesting that you had higher expectations of my gameplay. I’ve caught Golden and S~V~S as baddies doing that before and I trust my gut on that now. There are lame cases and then there are lame cases dressed up to look like legit cases. You fit the latter early on, but you too have slipped into gray territory after Day 3.

I do not think this is what I was accusing you of. My feeling about your early gameplay was that you seemed to not be taking advantage of the time you were spending in the thread. There were a couple of instances where you popped in and said things which suggested you intended to produce content but never followed through.

Oh I never intended to suggest anything beyond being visible. Catching up even while skimming is hard in this game. I was just trying to show people that I was present.

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:08 pm So sig was bad lolol! So much for those people hating on the sig voters. I hate losing S~V~S and nutella. Glad S~V~S was Pariah and can continue to post as she likes.

One thing that might be good for us is we are a sub-layer. In the Inception game the sub-layers "lynched" people but they weren't really dead. They just got bumped up to the main level. The main level lynches were real. I don't want to count on that being the case though.

linki

One hope I have is that there is a way to bump all of us out of this place without dying. Did death in every level take you deeper in Inception (the movie) until death in the subconscious wakes you up? Which direction will we move? There’s no guarantee that death takes us up and out. What happens to the main thread as people re-enter, I wonder? Will bad things happen if we lynch baddies on this level and they end up controlling the top level?

Okay, so I have no read on speedchuck or Michelle. Juliets pinged me during my skimming early on but got lost in the Mac vs the World shuffle. Jay started the game seeming off to me (vibes only, really). Sloonei, it felt like you were trying early on to set me up by suggesting that you had higher expectations of my gameplay. I’ve caught Golden and S~V~S as baddies doing that before and I trust my gut on that now. There are lame cases and then there are lame cases dressed up to look like legit cases. You fit the latter early on, but you too have slipped into gray territory after Day 3.

Only six of us on the poll. Cozy.

Oh, never mind. There’s a poll now.

Okay. I didn’t make a spreadsheet. Wish I had now. So who else is here with us I wonder.

Oooooooooookay.

Were all those roles on the civvie list?

Subsequently,are all those people really dead if this is Inception-land?