The Syndicate

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2020 1:02 am G-man was in complete control of this game. I was quivering.

Quash that. Day 1 I was way behind, Day 2 I rage posted, and Day 5 I was a nervous wreck behind the scenes. If not for Nanook-Boo-Jack drama Days 3 & 4, my tip-toeing around would have been seen for what it was. Our team compensated for our shortcomings pretty well, be we were assisted by a pack of civvies that were intent on savaging each other.

Q was not an easy letter to work with. V, X, and Z won't afford much ease-of-use either.

Quick shout-out to Dragomir- he was patient with Wilgy and I while he was alive. Drago wanted a plan heading into Day 2 and Wilgy and I just decided to wing it. I can't speak for Wilgy's reasons, but I was too busy to try to execute any plans.

Quintessential to our plan was eliminating not necessarily who already got the gun, but who we didn't want to get the gun in the future. Wilgy overrode me at one point. I wanted to poison Nanook before he could get the gun again but he switched to to Johann late.

Heading into Day 5, our goal was to set up an impossible choice by poisoning Hyena. Funnygurl couldn't get the gun, and we banked on whoever was left from the Boo-Jack-Nanook trio being too far in the POE to get the gun. We were trying to force you into giving either WIlgy or I the gun. You made us work quite a bit harder than we anticipated, so kudos.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 24, 2020 10:21 pm Wilgy and G-Man didn't even really slank that much. They just sort of hung back and let the town eat itself. As viable a strategy as any to win, but certainly a great way to make salty townies in endgame lol.

Quite true. As I told Wilgy in our chat, this will probably usher in a new era of 'kill the quiet people early!'

Quite truly, I must confess- I am a bit sad that this win was aided by my Day 2 outburst. That was an honest, real freak-out by me. It was inappropriate and I thought I had blown my cover. Someone had said the baddies didn't want the gun, so I made a push for the gun. When I was told I was unworthy, I went nuclear and unloaded. I'm sorry it happened. I honestly thought it was going to get me shot. I'm not sure how it didn't. Appeal To Emotion is not in my playbook. After some of you cleared me over it, I had to roll with the punches. I don't normally low-ball it like that as a baddie, but I really have been up past midnight on work nights for about the last two and a half weeks. It forced my hand a little.

Thanks for the game Leetic!

Quoth the G-Man: hell yeah!

Me on the downside to poisoning Sloonei:

G-Man- 05/16/2020
That will tell folks that at least one baddie knows Sloonei is dangerous, which will likely point to a Syndicate regular.

Sloonei after being poisoned:

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 10:03 pm Cocky theory time: Sloonei being poisoned suggests at least one syndicate regular is mafia.

Quitting on a Funnygurl-Jack pairing:

Looking back through Dragomir's ISO, he did keep Funnygurl at arm's length a little. He asked a few people about their read on her Day 1, even defending her play this game by comparing to a previous game to Sloonei, but admits it's only one game of meta to base that on. That's a pretty poor foundation to build a townread on a teammate with. There's not much else of substance with or about Funnygurl except this, which was in my Wilgy-Funnygurl notes:

Dragomir wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 8:58 am @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME what do you think about shooting Wilgy or FG? Nobody's talking about them.

Now, the Dragomir-Jack connection has a little more oomph behind it, but I will expound upon that more when I get to my Jack-Wilgy analysis. In fairness, I need to go back and re-read Dragomir's ISO for Boo and Boo's for Drago again. Yesterday already feels forever ago.

What kills the whole thing is trying to link Funnygurl and Jack. Look at all this: All this is from Day 1 and Night 1. I'm sorry, but this cannot be teammate behavior or it's just plain suicidal for the team. Funnygurl's posts are too pro-Jack for her own good as a teammate. If he gets lynched, this stands out like a sore thumb and she goes down shortly after Jack does. I'm not having it.




--------------------------------------

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun May 24, 2020 4:04 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Sun May 24, 2020 3:06 pm
I still have more work to do on this one, but it really seems like it’s Wilgy plus either Boo or Jack at this point.

Voting for myself now because I don’t trust anyone else who can get the gun today and I know that we’ll get an additional 24 hours to work this out if I receive it.

What’s the strongest reason I should believe that you’re town, that Wilgy is mafia and if you are given the gun (barring further digging), is your shot going to be Wilgy?

1) You should believe that I am town because I am still here. I've been at least half a step behind everyone the whole game. If I was a threat, I would be gone already. The baddies are counting on me being either a useful idiot and voting for the wrong person (if I don't get the gun), or they can set me up as a deep-wolf decoy at Lylo if they don't get lucky with today's vote. I've been sitting as either a town read or on the edge of being a town read for "too long" when the paranoia and tinfoil kicks in, and they're counting on that. It's a smart play.

2) Wilgy and I are similar, I have to admit that. We're low-posting, semi-behind players. Wilgy is Wilgy though. He's known to be a low-posting kind of enigma. The mafia probably wants you to lean on the 'yeah, but WIlgy is always kinda like this so it's NAI' line to make him feel safer. But the clincher for me (besides the fact that my role card says I'm town, Funnygurl isn't in my POE anymore, and that I don't believe you and Boo are both mafia) is that Wilgy and Dragomir are guilty of the sin of avoidance. Wilgy doesn't mention Dragomir at all until Day 2. Dragomir never directly addresses Wilgy before he's killed. Dragomir only ever mentions Wilgy when he talks to other players about Wilgy. They never provide reads on each other. Maybe they intended to as the game developed, but they avoided each other early on. How many times has a baddie been caught before later on for this very sin?

3) With my POE being reduced to Boo, Wilgy, and yourself, Wilgy is my lock baddie. I don't believe in a world where you and Boo are teammates. One of you is Wilgy's teammate. If I get the gun, and I cannot sort out the baddie between you and Boo, then I will absolutely shoot Wilgy tonight to give us more time to unmask the last baddie in Lylo. The only viable night targets tonight are Funnygurl and me. Let them sweat over that choice.

Quoth the G-Man:

[VOTE: G-Man] aubergine


I realized I never actually cast my vote. Breathing in too many cleaner fumes!

Quarrelsome day in the house of G. We’re cleaning up the basement and I found two boxes of random cleaning supplies. Not knowing what I need and what I can pitch, I called my mother. Rather than just giving advice over the phone, she insists on coming over. You can imagine how happy that makes my wife, whose definition of a clean house is documented to be several levels below that of my mother’s. So yeah, give me the gun because it looks like I’ll have all night to work on more reads while I’m sleeping on the couch!

Trying to review while via sneaking short reading sessions when I can work them in. Casing Funnygurl and Jack is... extensive, mostly because they have the most posts of all non-poisoned living players left in the game.

From a strategic standpoint, I have my doubts based on how Funnygurl got the gun Day 4 and was a little spastic over the decision. I don’t know that that happens if they’re paired up unless they were that scared of chancing Nanook with the gun again. Even if Nanook did get the gun, a baddie Funnygurl is planted pretty deep in civ reads. She may only look suspicious post-Jack if she isn’t poisoned before Lylo.

I still have more work to do on this one, but it really seems like it’s Wilgy plus either Boo or Jack at this point.

Voting for myself now because I don’t trust anyone else who can get the gun today and I know that we’ll get an additional 24 hours to work this out if I receive it.

Quixotic pairing: DrWily & Funnygurl

Wilgy hardly mentions Funnygurl until Day 3, when he considers her a poor shot target. He also begins to express some reservations about her in one post. Night 4 he seems caught up in Funnygurl's indecisiveness. He shows preference for Boo being shot Night 4 and expresses disappointment and frustration that Boo wasn't shot in the end. Despite that, today he considers Funnygurl an unlikely baddie partner for Boo and myself, but does not list a pairing of Jack and Funnygurl on his tiered list.

Funnygurl lists Wilgy in her POE Day 1 but is indecisive of him by Night 2. Day 3 she seems to agree with Hyena that Jack and Wilgy are not a likely combination and says she doesn't feel the need to evaluate a Jack/Wilgy pair unless Jack flips mafia. Day 4, she agrees with Nanook when he lumps Wilgy into a town cluster and lose if he's wrong. She interacts with him directly at the end of Day 4 when he starts having reservations about her. She says that Mac would have caught her with the tell he never revealed, so she must be civvie. She lists Wilgy as possible partners for Boo or Jack if either flips baddie, but she lists herself as potential partners with Nanook. She puts Wilgy in her four-person shoot list Night 4. Nanook was initially listed in her 'no shoot' list but she shot him anyway. We never find out how she rationalizes Wilgy off the shoot list. No mention of Wilgy so far today.

Bringing Dragomir into the mix, he did soft defend Funnygurl Day 1 to Sloonei. There was that interaction Day 1 that I had in my Boo-Funnygurl analysis as well. Then there's this little nugget on Day 2 that is just warm enough to keep the case alive:

Dragomir wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 8:58 am @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME what do you think about shooting Wilgy or FG? Nobody's talking about them.

That's about the most Dragomir said about either of them on Day 2. That's also about the most substantive thing Dragomir said about WIlgy all game before he died.

-----------------------------------------------

I mean, there's a little bit there, but it's a weird mixture of over-distancing out of the gate and then relying on Funnygurl's topsy-turvy game to throw everyone off the scent in the heat of Day and Night 4. I can see how Funnygurl would really not take too much heat for killing any of the three of Boo, Jack, and Nanook, but she made a bit of a show out of it that seems like poor strategy from a baddie. You've got to be really confident that the remaining two from that pool are going to be in the spotlight by default again and hope that Wilgy gets the gun to end it quick or a civ gets the gun and makes another poor choice.

If they are the baddies, it was an artful scheme that got just creaky enough to be seen at the end. I think I'm too far down the rabbit hole to try to make this a top-tier case.

Quoting overlaps and interactions between Boo & Funnygurl:

DAY 1:

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 1:22 am yeah ok i don't like g-man. you're town-reading boo for being logical and talking about strategy and mechanics? yo what does that actually have to do with scum hunting and finding reads?

Funnygurl doesn't like my read on Boo and assumes it is a town read. I don't believe it was a town read at that point. I was working on figuring out who to trust with the gun. I think there was a difference on Day 1, but she hadn't mentioned Boo at all yet up to that point (unless she didn't quote him in a response- I have to say that not using the quote feature runs rampant in her posts, which makes ISO'ing difficult).

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 2:01 am i actually would like to know why nutella is scum reading boo. for the record i'm not-- i just think g-man's tr of him is bs

After suspecting me for liking Boo, she suspects Nutella for distrusting Boo. It doesn't seem to have anything to do with Boo yet, but rather the way people approach Boo.

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 3:23 am i acknowledge your suspicion of boo nutella but it isn't something i can buy without experience playing with him i guess

Here Funnygurl says she can't buy into Nutella's sus of Boo becauseFunnygurl hasn't played with Boo. It's still Day 1, so newness is still a thing. I've struggled with it all game.

boo wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 12:45 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 12:35 pm

boo wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 12:22 pm I was not saying you would do the shooting. I was saying you were setting up getting me getting shot. You don't need the gun to direct where who gets it will aim it. And it's cleaner for mafia to not get it but have a hand in directing it.

And you know all of that, and it's the second time you've blatantly misrepresented what I have said; the first being when my talking about the mechanics was somehow trying to control what other people are doing.

I hope my last post clears this up a little but I am sorry if I've misrepresented you -- I was posting very late last night and was very much not eloquent and having trouble putting my thoughts into words so I think I mis-articulated some things, particularly the idea that you were trying to "impose" anything on anyone. I didn't mean it that way at all, just a looser idea that you were trying to apply your way of thinking to someone else's content in a way that didn't mesh with their original intentions. I'm not trying to say that your approach is wrong, just that it was misapplied to Mac's approach and I originally thought that you were nefariously trying to make him look bad out of nothing, but I can see that you may have legitimately had that interpretation. I don't know. I'm undecided on you now.

And sure, I was trying to push you as a candidate for shooting. But again nothing is set in stone at this point of the phase and now that I'm not screaming that you're "100% scum" I would appreciate the same courtesy. I was pushing my strong read at the time, which is what I believe townies should do. I was not trying to control the narrative in order to ensure a misfire, as you are insisting.

No, I'm not dropping you as a candidate for shooting. But I also was never in the group of wanting a fixed candidate. I'd want a minimum of three choices that the person who gets the gun is allowed to choose from, with the understanding if they stray outside that they got shot next. This early on expanding it to more like 4 or 5 because of how conflicting the different reads will be though seems best. Either way, you'd be the top name on my short-list. Along with Mac. Sloonei and Funnygurl to currently round it out.

Here Boo lists Funnygurl in his shot list for Night 1. There were no direct quotes or interactions between them up to this point.

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 7:59 pm

boo wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 12:22 pm I was not saying you would do the shooting. I was saying you were setting up getting me getting shot. You don't need the gun to direct where who gets it will aim it. And it's cleaner for mafia to not get it but have a hand in directing it.

And you know all of that, and it's the second time you've blatantly misrepresented what I have said; the first being when my talking about the mechanics was somehow trying to control what other people are doing.

boo = town

nutella = scum

this isn't distancing; it's not w/w

She's right that it wasn't distancing. This is her first declared stance on Boo.

boo wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 8:07 pm

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 7:59 pm

boo wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 12:22 pm I was not saying you would do the shooting. I was saying you were setting up getting me getting shot. You don't need the gun to direct where who gets it will aim it. And it's cleaner for mafia to not get it but have a hand in directing it.

And you know all of that, and it's the second time you've blatantly misrepresented what I have said; the first being when my talking about the mechanics was somehow trying to control what other people are doing.

boo = town

nutella = scum

this isn't distancing; it's not w/w

Here is Boo's first direct response to a Funnygurl post. He doesn't believe something in her post, but it's unclear. She asks for clarification if Boo thinks Nutella is scum. His response:

boo wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 8:14 pm Funnygurl555 No, I don't think nutella is town. but I don't think you're town either. I wouldn't go so far as to partner you, way too early for that. but one of you is mafia. I'd probably shoot you over her, or at least argue for your inclusion in the short list over hers.

Boo backs up having her on his shoot list by declaring a scum read on her. There's no reasoning behind it though. Boo just keeps it vague.


At the same time all this is happening, Dragomir questioned why Funnygurl thought Nutella was backtracking. She provided the information here. Dragomir's response led to a soft town read:

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 8:15 pm

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 8:14 pm

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 8:09 pm

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 8:08 pm

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 8:05 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 12:35 pm

boo wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 12:22 pm I was not saying you would do the shooting. I was saying you were setting up getting me getting shot. You don't need the gun to direct where who gets it will aim it. And it's cleaner for mafia to not get it but have a hand in directing it.

And you know all of that, and it's the second time you've blatantly misrepresented what I have said; the first being when my talking about the mechanics was somehow trying to control what other people are doing.

I hope my last post clears this up a little but I am sorry if I've misrepresented you -- I was posting very late last night and was very much not eloquent and having trouble putting my thoughts into words so I think I mis-articulated some things, particularly the idea that you were trying to "impose" anything on anyone. I didn't mean it that way at all, just a looser idea that you were trying to apply your way of thinking to someone else's content in a way that didn't mesh with their original intentions. I'm not trying to say that your approach is wrong, just that it was misapplied to Mac's approach and I originally thought that you were nefariously trying to make him look bad out of nothing, but I can see that you may have legitimately had that interpretation. I don't know. I'm undecided on you now.

And sure, I was trying to push you as a candidate for shooting. But again nothing is set in stone at this point of the phase and now that I'm not screaming that you're "100% scum" I would appreciate the same courtesy. I was pushing my strong read at the time, which is what I believe townies should do. I was not trying to control the narrative in order to ensure a misfire, as you are insisting.

here you go drago

Thanks. Hmm, I would not give Nutella a bad read for that post.

why's that? i can't metaread nutella yet but i'd generally scum read someone for a play like that

I would too due to the diplomacy that they got going on but this one I don't agree with. I think Nutella genuinely felt sorry there and she really thought she was wrong. She gave a deep explanation for it and while she ended up being on the fence on Boo, the thought process towards it makes sense to me. This is something I can easily see someone from both alignments doing but coming from a genuine place, you get me?

alright. i mean i can't use that to influence my own read of her but i appreciate the info and think it makes you look good

Funnygurl asks for Boo's confidence level in Boo's assertion that there's a wolf between her and Nutella. It doesn't look like he responded directly.


Night 1, Boo switched over to calling Funnygurl FG (I almost missed that).

boo wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 10:46 pm

boo wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 10:38 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 10:33 pm

boo wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 10:32 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 10:28 pm Why were so many people town reading Hyena? He feels way scummy and his FG interactions are hamfisted.

I was working with him (and Gman kinda boarded that train toward EoD) because he was approaching things in a similar enough way to me that it was a better alternative. I don't townread. I'm not sure that I trust him. I don't agree with you about FG though.

You don't think his interactions with FG are hamfisted?

I didn't at the time. I'll re-read it though, and get you more specific thoughts.

Yea, I still think FG comes out of it looking worse. But I'd rank it as being pretty ambivalent about both of them.

He is still suspicious of her.



Funnygurl doesn't mention Boo at all until the waning hours of Day 2, where she reiterates a town read. Boo mentioned Funnygurl in the final 12 hours of Day 2 as well:

boo wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 11:34 am

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 8:24 am ayy johann is so town so town so town

the drago read is spicy

The Drago read is parroting the thread.

This puts down both Dragomir's read from that time and Funnygurl's declaration that Dragomir's read is spicy.

...and responds to Funnygurl's town read on him:

boo wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 3:05 pm

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 3:03 pm boo is town

Yes, although I'm not sure if you're supposed to be able to confidently state that if you are...

There's shade here, which makes me call into question the possibility of a Dragomir-Boo-Funnygurl team. If it exists, that means that Boo is shading both of his teammates very early in the game. That doesn't give a very health path to victory in case others start to suspect Dragomir and Funnygurl. Dragomir got shot Night 2. Maintaining sus of Funnygurl means risking the necessity of soloing your way to victory if people turn on her.

But, on Night 2, Boo tells Nanook not to shoot Funnygurl.

boo wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 1:26 pm @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

Kill 2:
Jack & Hyena

Don't kill:
FG & Mac

Day 3, Boo is amenable to giving Funnygurl the gun if people don't want him to have it:

boo wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 11:23 am @G-Man Jack and Mac are running a divide and conquer gambit. It's playing off of Johann's total distrust of me, your and Wilgy's general not keeping up, FGs regularly going all over the place as she tries to make up her mind, and my ability to generally alienate other town. I'm not really sure how they're fitting in Hyena.

If you trust your gut, (currently) vote for me, along with me and Nanook. We may need to shift the vote over to FG later in the day, bit that's where things currently stand.

There's not much more direct interaction between the two at this point. Funnygurl is willing to vote for Boo to get the gun at one point, and she quotes Boo or quotes other people's quotes that have Boo nested in them.

There is this little bit of defense of her townread on Boo to Johann when he was on the prowl:

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 11:35 am

Johann wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 11:32 am

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 11:21 am

boo wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 3:00 pm

Duskfall wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 2:50 pm I doubt scum jack poisons me btw considering i was strongly townreading him a lot of yesterday and changed the shot off him last night, regardless of how widely townread I am. That is unless a different partner needed me dead, but worth thinking about. I would say I am likely dying for being consensus town so my scumreads while a good reference point aren't going to be everything, but mafia I am townreading would still have no reason to want me dead. So if anything probably take away my townread from my death rather than my scumreads

All townreads of someone poisoned are inherently irrelevant.

Once poisoned, you cannot get the gun. Who you trust is not going to weigh into who will then be shot the night after you die.

SR reads can be more relevant, if the mafia think they'll hold enough water to result in someone you suspect getting shot.

So, as with most mafia kills, it all boils down to WIFOM of "would they kill someone to (soon) shut them up, so people ignore their SR" vs "their SR are relevant and we should listen to them... ah shit, they weren't actually relevant and we got town" vs "their SR are relevant and we should listen to them... but maybe they expected that, so let's not listen!" vs etc, etc.

The only useful takeaway from your being poisoned is that the mafia we have here went for the unimaginative option. You were the runnerup for the gun, and in general unlikely to ever be shot, and poisoning you means you cannot get the gun today. Those are all directly useful things we don't have to wonder about them thinking, they're why you're the unimaginative option. But the mafia can't control if and how your reads come into play by deciding to kill you. It's even WIFOM for them until it goes through, because they don't know how the town will react to it.

this is why i tr'd boo

For that?
For talking game mechanics?

well from that i don't think killing duskfall would be boo's decision, and i also think boo would really wanna talk about sTrAtEgY in a maf chat

And then there's this:

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 11:42 am

boo wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 11:39 am

Johann wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 11:33 am

boo wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 11:32 am

Johann wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 11:25 am

boo wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 11:23 am @G-Man Jack and Mac are running a divide and conquer gambit. It's playing off of Johann's total distrust of me, your and Wilgy's general not keeping up, FGs regularly going all over the place as she tries to make up her mind, and my ability to generally alienate other town. I'm not really sure how they're fitting in Hyena.

If you trust your gut, (currently) vote for me, along with me and Nanook. We may need to shift the vote over to FG later in the day, bit that's where things currently stand.

In case you get the gun.
Who dies?

TBD. Nanook had a list somewhere, someone in it. I'd like to think Mac and Jack are teammates, but it seems a bit too easy. I think it's probably only actually one of them, and the other is playing the other.

I can see Mac as scum more than Jack
Sell me that pitch by your words and not nanooks

I'm not really invested in you voting with me. Whichever one of them hatched this scheme doesn't expect you to be on my side of this, and even then, I still see being able to get the numbers to burn them on what they did here. So if you're more open-minded then they thought, it's still easier for me to show you that it's worth risking trusting me through my interactions with other people, not directly with you. You don't trust me. Fair enough. I've given you reason not to. So you're to tunneled on me to not be able to find a way to doubt anything I can tell you. If you have more specific questions I can try and help you get there that way, but I'm not going to be able to sell you on trusting me in the way you're asking here.

;______; this looks townie y'all

And there are a few other posts that seem like hard defenses of Boo. At this point I waver on them again. Boo seems like a viable target in the minds of several people at this point, so a hard defense is probably a mistake. If Funnygurl and Boo are the last pair, then defending Boo like she does is a mistake. It sticks out like a sore thumb in retrospect, and doesn't provide her the cover she needs to solo to endgame. Now, nobody shot Boo Nights 3 or 4. Night 3, Johann shot Mac, and Night 4, Funnygurl shot Nanook.

Boo disappeared for most of Day 4, in which Jack vs Nanook played out. Funnygurl gets the gun and jumps all around about who to shoot. At one point she seems settled on Boo. She says reading Jack's ISO turned her back to shooting Boo. But in the end, she shoots Nanook.

When Day 5 begins, he's got Funnygurl back in his sights hard over shooting Nanook instead of himself or Jack:

boo wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 10:15 pm The real question is wtf anyone still thought shooting Nanook was a good idea.

Boo also has a few posts where he tries to shut down Hyena's defense of Funnygurl.

Jack & FG are the mafia.

At this point, I have to wonder again. Jack and Boo enter the day looking like the two most likely suspects. Does Boo really think he can solo to victory by hard bussing Funnygurl? Or does Boo think hard bussing his teammate will help Funnygurl solo to victory by giving her deeper cover and clouding our thoughts after Boo gets shot and flips mafia? I don't see the winning strategy here. If this is what's happening, it seems like a reckless way to try to win. You're more likely to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory going down this road.

------------------------------------------------

Overall, it's a more interesting case than I thought it would be, but there are a few too many points where such a pairing (and even the triangulation with Dragomir) breaks down from a strategy and execution standpoint. Going through this I think validates what Jack was saying about Funnygurl only possibly pairing with Nanook. If I put my tinfoil on, I can see how they got lucky Day and Night 3, and Day 4 with Funnygurl getting the gun while Boo takes a hike to let Jack vs Nanook reach fever pitch. I have my doubts.


As an aside, I need to do this another way. This took way too much time to work through three ISOs at the same time. Forgive me for being a little less Sloonei-esque from here on out.

Quick elimination-

My six POE pairings are:

Boo & DrWilgy
Boo & Funnygurl
Boo & Jack
DrWilgy & Funnygurl
DrWilgy & Jack
Funnygurl & Jack


The easiest one for me to eliminate is Boo & Jack. This pairing only exists in the wild frontier of tinfoil for me. Jack vs Boo feels too similar to Jack vs Nanook. That much animosity is hard to fake. I can theorize how it might fit together, but it’s all too cute, and I see logistical flaws to them trying to steer us to this point on Day 5. If it is that pairing, then they have damaged my ability to trust anyone ever again.

This leaves me with:
Boo & DrWilgy
Boo & Funnygurl
DrWilgy & Funnygurl
DrWilgy & Jack
Funnygurl & Jack

Linki:
I think you’re probably correct about Funnygurl, Jack. I want to look at her pairings before the others to see if she can be eliminated from the POE altogether.

Questing for the win requires us to evaluate every possible teammate pairing. There are only five players left who can be shot tonight, leaving us with only 10 combinations to work through:

Boo & DrWilgy
Boo & Funnygurl
Boo & G-Man
Boo & Jack
DrWilgy & Funnygurl
DrWilgy & G-Man
DrWilgy & Jack
Funnygurl & Jack
Funnygurl & G-Man
G-Man & Jack

Each of the five of us are incapable of analyzing any pairings that involve ourselves, so that reduces the workload to just six pairings each.

[mention]Hyena[/mention]- you can try your hand at analyzing all 10 pairings if you like but that is a lot to ask of someone who will be dead at EoD. What I’d like you to do is be as objective as you can in judging the sincerity of our analyses.

There’s plenty of time. Let’s solve this.

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 10:19 pm its easy for you to say now. fucking, do you know how annoying the nanook x jack thunderdome was??

and how bad it would have been if boo were town?

Quite true. Jack vs Nanook reminded me of Dom vs Quin in Mad Max.

I need to sleep on this. Part of me feels vindicated that Nanook was town, but another part of me is already tinfoiling myself in circles. This is no time to rush into a decision. Feel-Think-Do. Let's spend more time thinking today than feeling, because feeling got us another dead civvie.

Queries for you, Funnygurl:

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 8:50 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 6:00 pm For Boo-

Boo gets shot tonight and flips mafia. Does that town clear anyone? Who is the logical choice in light of that for his teammate?

Boo gets shot tonight and flips civvie. Does that town clear anyone? Does that damn anyone as surefire mafia?

maf: most likely jack. and the logical choice of teammate? m... wilgy or hyena are options, as well as nanook

civ: think jack's most likely mafia then

I'm with you on a baddie Boo flip looking good for Jack. What is your current POE and why does it shift to Wilgy, Hyena, and Nanook based on a baddie Boo flip? In the case of a civ Boo flip, why Jack over Nanook for mafia?

G-Man wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 6:00 pmFor Jack-

Jack gets shot tonight and flips mafia. Does that town clear anyone? Who is the logical choice in light of that for his teammate?

Jack gets shot tonight and flips civvie. Does that town clear anyone? Does that damn anyone as surefire mafia?

maf: it'd clear nanook. teammates, i'd look at wilgy

civ: no it doesn't clear anyone. i'd go for one of boo or nanook there

I agree with it clearing Nanook. I'd argue Boo as well. Why do you include Hyena in your post-baddie-flip for Boo scenario but not your post-baddie-flip for Jack? What's the incompatibility keeping Hyena from that list?

G-Man wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 6:00 pmFor Nanook-

Nanook gets shot tonight and flips mafia. Does that town clear anyone? Who is the logical choice in light of that for his teammate?

Nanook gets shot tonight and flips civvie. Does that town clear anyone? Does that damn anyone as surefire mafia?

maf: it'd clear jack. teammate could be .. me o___O for fighting his death

civ: nah it doesn't town clear anyone. it makes me sus jack more for sure

Agree that Nanook-Jack most likely isn't a thing. Interesting take on yourself there. This is why I have trouble reading you. Do you disagree with Jack's take that a Nanook civ-flip looks good for both you and Hyena? If so, why?

Queries of the follow-up kind for you, Jack:

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 8:19 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 6:00 pm For Boo-

Boo gets shot tonight and flips mafia. Does that town clear anyone? Who is the logical choice in light of that for his teammate?
Should clear me. (I should already be cleared got damn.) Should clear Hyena and FG. Should clear Mac RIP. Should clear Nutella RIP.
From your pov, Wilgy and Nanook should be Boo's only likely partners.

Boo gets shot tonight and flips civvie. Does that town clear anyone? Does that damn anyone as surefire mafia?
Not really imo.

I agree that Boo flipping mafia would be a good look for you. There doesn't seem to be much room for compatibility between you and Boo. If anyone disagrees, please speak up. I assume then, that if Boo flips civ, then your first choice for the next shot is still Nanook? If it's not Nanook & Boo, who is Nanook's teammate?

For Jack-

Jack gets shot tonight and flips mafia. Does that town clear anyone? Who is the logical choice in light of that for his teammate?
N/A

Jack gets shot tonight and flips civvie. Does that town clear anyone? Does that damn anyone as surefire mafia?
If I get shot, shoot Nanook and then whoever shoots me. Seriously. I townread FG but if she shoots me, her equity with Nanook goes way up. She came around to townreading me. She's been at ground zero for all the truthbombs about Nanook's alignment from me and Johann. If in spite of that, she shoots me, I'd bet the game on her over Boo. My town flip confirms Mac RIP.

You're biased in this, so it's not surprising that you paint your death as being the least revealing.

For Nanook-

Nanook gets shot tonight and flips mafia. Does that town clear anyone? Who is the logical choice in light of that for his teammate?
Me and Johann RIP. Boo is most likely his teammate but honestly, so many people have townread Nanook for the shot it's hard to pick out which one is lying if it's not just Boo.

Nanook gets shot tonight and flips civvie. Does that town clear anyone? Does that damn anyone as surefire mafia?
I think it clears Hyena and FG. They're never mafia without Nanook.

Again, there doesn't seem to be much compatibility between you and Nanook unless you are teaching us all a doctorate level class in distancing. Why do you say that Funnygurl and Hyena are town-cleared by a Nanook death? What negates a pairing of either of them with Boo or you?

Questions abound today. Sorry for the late arrival- I put my 4-year-old down for a nap, fell asleep beside her, and woke up two hours later. *facepalm*

All the talk seems to surround the POE of Boo, Jack, and Nanook. Someone said that Boo's flip could clear or damn others, so we've flirted with what comes next, but I want to hear everyone's firm opinion on each of these scenarios:

For Boo-

Boo gets shot tonight and flips mafia. Does that town clear anyone? Who is the logical choice in light of that for his teammate?

Boo gets shot tonight and flips civvie. Does that town clear anyone? Does that damn anyone as surefire mafia?


For Jack-

Jack gets shot tonight and flips mafia. Does that town clear anyone? Who is the logical choice in light of that for his teammate?

Jack gets shot tonight and flips civvie. Does that town clear anyone? Does that damn anyone as surefire mafia?


For Nanook-

Nanook gets shot tonight and flips mafia. Does that town clear anyone? Who is the logical choice in light of that for his teammate?

Nanook gets shot tonight and flips civvie. Does that town clear anyone? Does that damn anyone as surefire mafia?



Honest answers please.

Quite simply, I'm fighting pride at this point. Boo was an early civ read for me because I liked his approach. I can see how his tone and content may betray the logical approach and rebuttals that appealed to me. Nanook was another logic-based read because I don't think it's in baddies' interests to make the game harder for themselves unless absolutely necessary. I don't think that Dragomir was a lock for bad guy of the day for Day 3, because all the night discussion was about the people on Nanook's list. Unless I'm mistaken, Johann was the only one who had Dargomir in his sights Night 2 to that extent. You'd have had to press super-town hard at that point to make him the central focus. I was still uncertain of you at that point, so I don't know that I'd have thrown in with you, despite my thoughts of him.

To turn around and take two early civ reads and consider them in the POE now means admitting that I was duped from Day 1. It's been a long time since I was that wrong in a game and it stings. I'm processing it still. I'll come back in the afternoon after some time in the office.

Johann wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 2:49 am Most people here believe Nanook is town bcs he shot red and nanook himself likes to brag about it. If you read D2 i was the first one to push on Drago and the one that advocated his death the most. Rest of people soon picked it up too and Dragimir became suspect number 1. Dragomirs death was 100 gurantee. Nanook shoot Dragomir and the rest is history. After killing of Dragomir nanook started to boast how he is townie and he killed a scum, like he is the only one that knew Dragomir is scum. In fact majority of us knew and sooner or later he would die. So Nanook decided to cement his town position and shoot scum. Nothing now stands in his position.

After that he became cocky and took a back seat because he is confident in his position. You now have a player that killed a scum and is universaly read by most to be town and can get the gun again... yet mafia chooses to poison me? It makws 0 sense at all to leave Nanook alive after everything like 0%. If you were scum ask yourself would you leave Nanook alive? Ofc not!

He then said despite having "juciy opportunities" to push for me he didnt. What kind of townie says shit like that? Like hello?

This day phase so far has been really bad. No activity or trying to figure out stuff. Most of you are all locked in your reads and too lazy or stubborn to change. If one of you just dropped it for a bit and read some you would see a bigger picture.

You are being played hard and with activity and passion like this you will lose hard

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 4:16 am

G-Man wrote: ↑Wed May 20, 2020 10:17 pm Quotes galore that I want to point out when I’m not on my phone. I feel like James Dean in Rebel Without a Cause. Nanook and Jack seem to be arm-wrestling for control of the game today. Nanook was posting like someone who was sure he was going to get poisoned last night but showed no surprise at it not happening. Instead, he pivoted into a strong stance. Jack continues to flail about. It’s like the more he talks the harder it is to see clearly (or what I thought was clearly).

So, here is the state of things right now from my perspective. Both Nanook and Jack have town cleared me, Funny, and a couple others. On the other hand people in the town clear pile are suspecting Boo, Jack, and Nanook. I don't feel like Boo or Jack are arm-wrestling for control, because there's a chance one will get shot after the other for all we know. From my perspective, they are trying to push forward arguments why the other could be scum for the people in their town clears.

G-Man wrote: ↑Wed May 20, 2020 10:17 pm Can anyone see Jack-Nanook teammate compatibility in any of this? That’s the tinfoiliest of tinfoil for two baddies to go this cutthroat and vocal, but it drowns out all discussion and wears everybody out. Is that happening here? It feels too organic to be fake to me. I still want to believe that common sense dictates it is pointless for Nanook to kill a teammate when he doesn’t have to. Someone said he did it recently. If that’s true, then I have to wonder if he’s ballsy enough to try the same play again so soon. I didn’t play whatever game that was, so I haven’t been burned by it personally to vacate him of that defense.

If Boo flips town, one of those two are gonna get shot next, so they can't really hide from people. I think it's more likely that only one of them is scum, if at all.

G-Man wrote: ↑Wed May 20, 2020 10:17 pm Nanook and Jack both seem to have Boo in their shoot list. Johann has said today that both Nanook and Boo look like scum. If it weren’t for that, I might worry that Boo was being touted about as a red herring. That could still be the case in the tinfoiliest of tinfoil, but that means we’re being played hard and/or overlooking someone. I am guilty of mostly sheeping a civ read of Funnygurl based on the civ reads of others. With no playing experience with her, I have to trust your collective guts on her.

In Nanook's case, I feel like he was forced to include Boo in their shoot list after me and a bunch of other people kept yelling in the game that he should be in the PoE. So no, I don't hink Nanook and Jack fall under the same category as far as Boo goes.

G-Man wrote: ↑Wed May 20, 2020 10:17 pm I am too stubborn to abandon my town tead on Nanook just yet.

That's fine. Even if Boo flips scum, I wouldn't automatically assume Nanook was scum with them. I think the only thing I'd do if Boo flips scum is clear Jack completely.

Thank you both for these posts. If Boo's flip can clear Jack, then that's at least something. Are there any other shots in the POE that could clear someone like that?

I'm going to change my vote to [VOTE: Funnygurl] aubergine.

Quotes galore that I want to point out when I’m not on my phone. I feel like James Dean in Rebel Without a Cause. Nanook and Jack seem to be arm-wrestling for control of the game today. Nanook was posting like someone who was sure he was going to get poisoned last night but showed no surprise at it not happening. Instead, he pivoted into a strong stance. Jack continues to flail about. It’s like the more he talks the harder it is to see clearly (or what I thought was clearly).

Can anyone see Jack-Nanook teammate compatibility in any of this? That’s the tinfoiliest of tinfoil for two baddies to go this cutthroat and vocal, but it drowns out all discussion and wears everybody out. Is that happening here? It feels too organic to be fake to me. I still want to believe that common sense dictates it is pointless for Nanook to kill a teammate when he doesn’t have to. Someone said he did it recently. If that’s true, then I have to wonder if he’s ballsy enough to try the same play again so soon. I didn’t play whatever game that was, so I haven’t been burned by it personally to vacate him of that defense.

Nanook and Jack both seem to have Boo in their shoot list. Johann has said today that both Nanook and Boo look like scum. If it weren’t for that, I might worry that Boo was being touted about as a red herring. That could still be the case in the tinfoiliest of tinfoil, but that means we’re being played hard and/or overlooking someone. I am guilty of mostly sheeping a civ read of Funnygurl based on the civ reads of others. With no playing experience with her, I have to trust your collective guts on her.

I am too stubborn to abandon my town tead on Nanook just yet. I need to read more of Hyena to see if I was right on Day 1 when I civ-read him. That was partly predicated on him and Boo being of similar mind on some things and my appreciation of logic. Do we toss logic out the window yet? I don’t want to, but it seems I have to for some of these potential pairings.

[mention]boo[/mention] Where even are you? Three people at least have you in their sights and you haven’t posted today. Get in here and make the waters even muddier with your input.

Johann wrote: ↑Wed May 20, 2020 1:59 am Why poison me if there are people.who didnt get the gun

Question of the day, isn't it? I need to read back through yesterday and ISO your D1 and D2. Either they are trying to mess with our heads by leaving Nanook alive (spoiler alert: it didn't work) or Johann struck enough of a nerve that they're willing to risk Nanook with the gun again.

At the start of my day, my POE looks like this:

Nanook & Funnygurl

Boo & Hyena

Jack & Wilgy


I want to make that three green and three red, so Boo and Hyena are my focus for the moment. Hyena was getting some town reads yesterday that I need to revisit. Jack's persistence in trying to convince me/everyone that Boo is bad has worn my civ read on Boo down, but not because Jack seems sincere. Jack's early swoop into the day with posts like this...

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed May 20, 2020 12:00 am If you go through my mafia career, it is littered with players I’ve bussed. I rarely get bussed. I’m always the last wolf. Last wolf in Inception, Shockhead, MU Anniversary 2019, Kirby. Last two surviving wolves in Pirates, Wire. I bussed in MU Thrones Mash. I never get bussed, especially by the likes of Boo or Wilgy, who wont be able to endgame alone.

If I have a teammate, they don’t try to bus me yesterday and if I have a teammate, they see the Mac flip and go “guess Jack was town.”

Instead, Wilgy and Nanook still want me dead. Boo voted for Nanook after he said he wanted to shoot me and left without saying a word.

[mention]Funnygurl555[/mention] [mention]Johann[/mention] [mention]G-Man[/mention]

You’re seeing this shit, right?

...drips of WIFOM. I've had wine with dinner a few nights in a row. This doesn't taste as good to me.

[mention]Nanook[/mention] and [mention]Johann[/mention] I'd like each of your perspectives on Boo and Hyena.

Question for you, Jack: If Nanook is bad, why would he shoot Dragomir when he could get away with a mis-shot and not blow his cover doing so? He was all but consensus town-read at that point. Is Nanook that cute or masochistic a baddie?

boo wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 11:23 am @G-Man Jack and Mac are running a divide and conquer gambit. It's playing off of Johann's total distrust of me, your and Wilgy's general not keeping up, FGs regularly going all over the place as she tries to make up her mind, and my ability to generally alienate other town. I'm not really sure how they're fitting in Hyena.

If you trust your gut, (currently) vote for me, along with me and Nanook. We may need to shift the vote over to FG later in the day, bit that's where things currently stand.

Qué? Divide and conquer requires a little more tinfoil than I have in my pantry at the moment. That’s an awful lot of work for two baddies to engage in. Unless they’re desperate after being caught off guard by Dragomir’s death, why go to all that effort. It seems like working harder, not smarter.

Quick post to vote. I looked through both Funnygurl’s and Johann’s ISOs again. I see Johann’s pursuit if Dragomir. That’s a good look. Still, I can’t get a good feel for the guy. Funnygurl is a little all over the place but I read her more innocently. Call it gender bias if you must.

[VOTE: Funnygurl] aubergine


Help us [mention]Sloonei[/mention]-Wan Kenobi; you’re our only hope!

Quick check-in while I watch the kids during my wife's Kindergarten Zoom session (almost as thankless as the weekly preschool Zoom session I get to sit in on with my 4-year-old).

Don't vote for me today because I am falling behind again. I saw someone vote for me while skimming the posts, but it looks like that vote moved. Keep it that way. That said, the current votes worry me a little bit.

My reads are a bit messy, but here goes:

Nanook

Mac
Boo

Funnygurl
Johann

Hyena
Jack
Wilgy


Nanook is my top civ read for reasons stated previously. I still think Mac looked good for his reaction to nutella. I guess that's the hill I'm willing to die on in this game. If I'm wrong, then all future Mac reactions are sus.

Boo reads so darn consistently through his ISO, but Jack's persistence on boo's readability as helpful/obstructive has me wavering and softening my civ read on him. I need to spend more time there. This frustrates me because Jack is in my bottom tier. I don't want to ignore his input in case I am misreading him, but I also don't want him to be Inceptioning me and converting me into useful idiot at endgame.

I still need help figuring out Funnygurl and Johann. I recall seeing something about Johann's sus and interaction with Dragomir. I can look for that. Is there anything else? I feel kind of stupid reaching such a null/neutral read on Funnygurl when she's got three votes in the gun poll. What am I not seeing that others are?

My bottom three are because I don't like how nervous Hyena got when Nanook said he was on the shot list, every few Jack posts seem shifty, and Wilgy being Wilgy frustrates me like Vomp being Vomp used to. I like the guy when he has time to bring his quirky A-Game, but this isn't it. Some of you can probably say the same about me, so I guess that makes Wilgy the kettle and me the pot.

Quality result. Nanook moves to my highest town read, because there’s no reason for a baddie to shoot a teammate on Night 2. Making it harder for your team when you don’t have to in order to gain cred for yourself ventures into ‘cute’ territory. There were a few other names that could be have been justified for the shot. Nanook seems to have already had enough cred to not slip to a scum read for a mis-shot. Unless he’s playing 4-D chess with us, he’s civ.

I feel like I need a little help interpreting the new-to-me folk. I liked Hyena Day 1 but he looked nervous Night 2 after Nanook named him in his shot list. Is that normal Hyena behavior one way or the other?

Funnygurl and Johann elude me but I have to form opinions on them so we can run poe. Funnygurl seems to be civ read by a number of folks. Is it tone? Is it interactions? Is it who she has sussed?

Reading Johann has been a tennis match for my brain. He never moves more than one step above or below neutral without saying something that negates that step. What in Johann’s playstyle can I look to to break this rut?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 8:40 pm @G-Man

When you read Boo, can you look at his general aggression and ask if you think it is coming from a town perspective with townie motivation or if its defensive/offensive without being inquisitive. I don't think evaluating how logical he is or isn't is the key bit but rather how logical it is for town and scum versions of Boo to say the things he's saying.

Queuing up Boo's ISO showed me that he's been punchy with a lot of folks. At a cursory glance, he seems to post more counterpoint material than proposing ideas. The big idea he seems to have right now is being held close to the vest. His ISO is long, though, and I admit that I went through it looking for consistency, and that is what I found. If I can find the time, I will try to analyze it from a civ-or-scum mindset tomorrow.

Jack's ISO has enough of his manic snarky style to seem normal, but I still find the flavor a little bland through Day 1. Coasting perhaps?

Wilgy is being Wilgy, and I never know what to do with that. For now, I feel like I have to slide him into the not-a-good-look tier given the size of the game.


[mention]NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME[/mention] This is probably too late to be helpful, but:

Would Not Shoot: Sloonei, Mac
Would Shoot: Dragomir, Hyena

Quietish night phase yields only this:

Nanook's pool: Hyena/Mac/Jack/Boo

Funnygurl likes Nanook's pool, but 50% of Nanook's pool got civ reads from Funnygurl. Huh?

Johann reluctant to name another civ- Why? There's got to be a name you can put in there. He relents and goes with Sloonei. THen there is also this post:

Johann wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 9:51 am I legit had no clue Wilgy is in tbis game too

It stuck me as odd because nutella said the same thing in Banjo-Kazooie as a baddie. I admit that that amounts to recency bias, but it stood out nonetheless. I'm sure statements like this wouldn't exist if it was a observed to be a tried and true baddie tell though.

Is [mention]Sloonei[/mention] abstaining on the 2&2 lists? Or does he just not have his notes together yet?


I then doubled back to see how Hyena, Mac, Jack, and Boo all reacted to being named in Nanook's potential shoot list:

-Boo: Doesn't address his presence on the list at all. Perhaps he feels confident that he doesn't need to engage much since Nanook said he was last on his shoot list. He just clarifies Jack's question and doesn't come back until this afternoon. At this point, he shoots down one of Hyena's posts and lists Jack and Hyena on his kill list (both of whom are on Nanook's list).

-Hyena: Lots of talking. Also a lot of responses and remarks to Nanook. I can see this as nervous chatter designed to portray himself as engaged and trying to help Nanook. Does anyone know if Hyena becomes a nervous talker either way when he's in the spotlight? He proposes shooting Dragomir and Boo. The former isn't on Nanook's list, and Boo was said to be the lowest of Nanook's priorities on his potential shoot list. It would look worse if Hyena had proposed Jack and Mac, as they are on even footing with him (or were when night started).

-Jack: Wants Nanook's justifications both ways (for placement on the list and being left off the list). A little bit of Jack-snark. Then he disappears for the phase. Comes back with some agreements with Nanook and asks for his thoughts on three players (only one of which was in Nanook's list from the beginning of the phase). This could be an attempt to nudge a few names onto Nanook's list to reduce his odds of getting whacked, but he doesn't look nervous yet.

-Mac: Doesn't address his presence on the list. He just lists his 2&2 (which includes the now-deceased Duskfall). This fits Mac's personality to me, so it doesn't move the needle either way.

Quills in my hot wings! The horror.

More observations through EoD for Day 2. People are listed in the order I first found something worth jotting a note about.

-Dragomir says he doesn't lead anymore. Hmm. Staccato answers to Sloonei until pressed for more of a response. Called sheepy by Johann, but is there evidence of that?

-Johann- poison the people who get the gun- that's a flawed baddie strategy- what if one of them gets the gun? Breaking the trend would be suspicious. Just because someone gets the gun early doesn't mean they will be trusted with the gun again. Proclaims he is a good scum player and that helps him sniff out bad players. Can anyone objectively back that claim up? Misreading Mac's response to Nutella mis-shot.

-Funnygurl civ reading Johann- why?

-Hyena- accused of being a tryhard by Johann

-Boo's response to Johann's theory of Dusk's poisoning is similar to mine- it's logic to me. Gets punchy with Jack. Is that fight different from Day 1? I may have to check since I was so drawn to him at first. How does Jack's death factor into boo's read of Johann? I disagree with him that posioned peoples' townreads are irrelevant. They are a confirmed civvie at that point and they still get to hunt. I get the WIFOM aspect of it, but it's not all irrelevant. Why not be open about how we think people are connected? Doesn't that help us more in this alternate setup? We all realize that it's just theory until someone flips. But we can still go back and look for the behavior post-flip. Unless he doesn't think he's seen enough of it and hopes for the baddies to do more of it. It feels counterproductive.

-Jack makes sense re: Dusk's poisoning. Jack makes sense re: Boo withholding his theory linking Jack and Johann. Jack makes sense? What a scary world we live in.


So Jack and boo provided some flavor leading up to the poll deadline. My enthusiasm for boo has cooled down some, but I'm going to have to review his ISO to make a firm flip from civ-lean to scum-lean. I still like some of his logical responses, though his stubbornness to keep his Jack-Johann connection doesn't seem logical.

Jack's got some decent content for Day 2. I may also have to check his ISO for consistency.

Wilgy is still a null read. I will ISO him, because I'm not sure null reads are acceptable at this point in a game this small. Now for the Night phase...

Quality reading up though page 29. I've been up until 1 or 2 a.m. every night this week, so I need to stop for the night. Here are some observations:

-Mac projects a frustration after nutella's flip that is hard to fake. It's not his usual 'bite me' style of doubling down on the punchy stuff. That strikes me as a modest civ look for him. I would expect baddie Mac to just say "f**k you" and crack a joke. He seems disappointed, which is a rare emotional response for him.

-Dragomir feels like a flat character that keeps popping up in a story full of three-dimensional characters. Is that normal for him? I see Johann says that Dragomir likes to lead, so is his play contradictory of that tendency in a bad way?

-Funnygurl posts weird stuff like this...

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 12:12 am give me the gun and i'll shoot whomever dusk says i should

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 12:46 am give me the gun and i'll blindly follow the confirmed town

#astrat

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 8:57 pm i'll listen to your reads dusk

also gman u good?

...that reminds me of a guy I worked with who would say random things so seriously that no one could ever tell when he was joking. Then, if he said he was joking, no one knew if he was telling the truth about joking. Any of the new-to-me folk have any guidance on this?

And no, I'm not good. I apologize for lashing out in such a broad way like that. I realize that my rants being intertwined with my request for the gun makes it look like what you folks call Appeal To Emotion. Please know that that was not what i was going for. Syndicate regulars can tell you that Appeal To Emotion is not in my nature. I snapped in my last game too, and what I said here has only a little to do with what's going on in this game and more to do with a few years of pent up frustration with my perception of mafia culture has shifted in a way that edges me out of the picture a little. I may very well be having a 'no country for old men' moment and questioning myself, but without a proper outlet. Some of what I said was uncalled for.

-Johann has good question- why posion Dusk (?), but there is an obvious answer that he seems to run away from more than once. Is that normal for him?

-Nanook comes across as very even-keel and focused. He posts a lot but he's moving in one direction rather than dancing to and fro. So far, it seems like his focus justifies his receiving the gun.

-Hyena seemed to sputter a little when Nanook grilled him. That's a side of him that was absent on Day 1 when I agreed with his logical rebuttals. I need to revisit parts of his Day 1 to see how I feel when chewing on both of those realities at the same time.

-Sloonei feels like he's digging. Digger Sloonei tends to be Civ Sloonei.


That's only seven people though. There are 11 of us still alive. Wilgy had a few posts but I don't get much of anything from them. Nothing from boo but a RIP post and some OT green. Jack had posts. I know he did. Jack can't help but post. They just lacked memorable flavor. We'll see the taste of all of you change when I read more tomorrow.

Speaking of flavors...

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 11:31 pm Oh I missed drago. He’s bertie bott’s mystery flavor.

I remember way back when Bertie Bott's Every Flavor Beans came out. My wife bought a box and we carefully tried them, being sure to match the picture on the box. I tried half of the rotten egg flavor. Dear God- how does one taste-test that product without being charged with crimes against humanity?

[mention]G-Man[/mention] Start reading at the top of page 30 in the morning.

Quotidian barrages of emails and other work drama having ceased for the night, I am back. I am going to start reading from the night post forward and see what sticks out to me. I'm not moving my vote around because I have no idea what has transpired since my meltdown. It looks like a lock on Nanook anyway, so maybe an uneventful EoD is a good thing.

‘Quality play’ is relative and there is a growing shift in the culture here that defines quality play as high-volume posting, retaining meta knowledge, and an intensity level that I moved on from years ago.

I resent being told that I am not trying. I am trying to contribute as much as I can given RL limitations.

You all can say that my low-posting doesn’t bother you out one side of your mouth, but when I get mislynched ( or in this case mis-shot), some will forget that and pull out the old “well if he’d have tried harder we might have realized that he was a civ” bit. People turn their mistake into my failing. It sucks and it’s toxic.

You want reads? Learn this about me- I struggle as a civvie, especially when vanilla. My bit is vote analysis and that’s off the table here because the setup is so different. I know my limitations as a civ and as a player in general. I know that I can’t contribute much with reads and vibes because I don’t play often enough to sharpen those tools. I keep coming back to the well because, despite my limitations, I think the game is fun and the people are fun.

You know what’s not fun? Over 1200 posts in one day phase. I can keep up with it with surface-level reading of posts but it has to be done at such a rapid pace that I have trouble remembering who’s talking. I can’t establish voices for you all when I have to read everything like the Micro Machines guy. (Yeah, I’m old enough to make that reference)

I knew coming into this game that I would be at a disadvantage. I thought it would at least be lighter in tone and volume with the small number of players involved. Nope. Verbal vomit as far as the eye can see. That compounds my handicap, so I know that “earning” the gun by proving myself “worthy” of it isn’t likely to happen. I campaign for it with the promise to push myself a little harder, and I get dumped on for it and get told that I’m not trying at all.

If I get the gun, I’ll sacrifice a little more of my Saturday to sift through ISO’s so I can make an informed decision. Otherwise, doing ISO’s just makes me have to read faster when catching up on what was posted while reading the ISO’s, which is counterproductive for me.

Some of this should probably be in OT green but I’m too pissed off to sort it out now. I’m going to put the kids to bed and blow off some of this steam. I’ve got a few more hours of work to do anyway.

Duskfall wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 5:51 pm G-man your reason for wanting a gun is just kind of...bad, for want of better words. "Someone give me the most important role in the game because I am currently not playing it" is essentially what you are saying, giving it you, who is 1) not trying to solve the game by your own admission and 2) not townread, is just not gonna happen

You don't deserve it over other people, so you won't get it. If you want to solve the game and try you would solve it, not use not having the gun as a pseudo excuse

Duskfall wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 5:53 pm So yeah, having the gun is a position of prestige, it is literally our only control of the game, it is not going to be used to make one person play the game they signed up for, if you don't want to play then chances are sooner or later you will be chucked in the bin and that is on you

I just realised eod1 i threw a tantrum saying I wouldn't post when people switched off me I really have quick character growth huh

Quarantine has made me more than a little pissy, antagonistic, and self-destructive. What I read from your posts is:

“If you can’t post ad nauseum and devote copious amounts of time to reading this game like us regulars, then you don’t deserve a chance.”

Which basically boils down to...

“If you can’t play the way we play, then you shouldn’t bother playing mafia.”

Screw that. Give me the damn gun.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 7:50 am Gman “I can’t keep up and I have no reads”

Also gman “give me the gun”


I strongly dislike this separating of the game into “MU and Syndicate” you push forward, maybe I’m just not seeing it but I don’t think that’s a particularly fair representation of the thread.

I do sympathize with the trouble keeping up tho

Quit trying to re-interpret my words. (You're not very good at it)

I'm keeping up, just not digesting like some of you who have more free time on your hands.

I want the gun because it will give me agency, and agency will motivate me to comb through some ISO's while I have some downtime this weekend.

I'm not pushing any kind of us-vs.-them mentality. I will, however, admit that I'm going to be more trusting of my reads on people from the Syndicate who I have some playing history with. New-to-me folks are going to be kept at arm's length unless I see a compelling reason to draw closer to them (a la Hyena's logic).


As evidenced by these posts...

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 4:13 pm i am not from mu i am from flash flash REVOLUTION

Duskfall wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 5:00 pm I'm also not from mu btw I can't believe someone accused me of such a sin

...it's not even a Syndicate v. MU thing here. That was me ASSuming and looking a little dumb for it. My point remains that there is a block of Syndicate folks and a block of new-to-me folks who all seem to be very chummy with their respective circles, forming towncores and speculating based on meta. I'm a Syndicateer, but also an infrequent player, so I'm left on the outside of much this.

Being on the outside means you folks will just keep pushing forward with your respective group chatter and reads and I'll have little to know idea what the heck you're referencing when name-dropping past games. Because I'm not in the know, my ability to form opinions is limited. Because of that, what few opinions I can form may not be given as much agency as others.

This leaves me with little reason to believe that you will organically consider voting for me to receive the gun. Thus, I can accept my fate as an outsider and feel little to no ambition for trying to impact the game because I know my input is already handicapped because I'm not a firm part of either of those circles, or I can be honest about it all and ask you to give me the friggin' gun so it lights a fire under my rear end.

Duskfall wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 3:48 pm Can we hammer in this game

Why not?

Quiescent overnights are nice, but don't solve this game's problem for me. I get posting to form interactions to look back on later, but the level of posting in this game is beyond ridiculous to me. I had hoped this week would not be a repeat of last week for me, but I've been up past midnight three nights in a row now working on work. You guys are posting so darn much that I'm almost to the point of not even caring to go back and read the wall of linki that confronts me when I try to post something.

I don't have reads. I don't have a towncore (if something like that is even possible at this point beyond Duskfall). I don't have all the new-to-me people separated in my mind yet. I don't have my bearings yet in a format that is new to me.

I do have some availability to dig deeper during the upcoming night phase.

Give me the gun today, because it's the only way I see myself being able to pivot into being useful here. There seems to be two distinct cool kids clubs already- one for MU and one for the Syndicate- and I'm not on the roster of either of them right now. If I don't get the gun today, I doubt I will at all, and that makes me feel less inclined to engage. I like the concept of this game, but the reality of it is a posting-tsunami that isn't fun for old farts like me.

Give me the gun today or I have no choice but to reduce myself to skimming and phoning it in at best.

Help me help you. Give me the gun.

Hyena wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 10:32 pm Alright, so now that Nutella has flipped town, I think my shot list is going to be {G-Man, Dragomir, Jack}. Those were the three that supported giving me the gun after I announced the I would always shoot Nutella if I had gotten the gun. I think Sloonei rises to my townleans. Boo remains there. Mac is in my townreads now -- his emotional reaction at SoD kinda sealed it for me.

My voting for you had nothing to do with your willingness to shoot nutella. I was drawn to boo's early logical posts. You said you wouldn't shoot boo. Duskfall said he would shoot boo. Bonus- you came across as logical to me as well. Most of my votes were an effort to keep Duskfall from getting the gun because I didn't want boo to get shot. That was my line in the sand.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 9:46 pm If you see this before EOD can you please just tell whether if you had to choose you would shoot Jack or Johann.

Quick take would be shoot Johann. Maybe I’m xenophobic but he’s a stranger to me. I teach my kids about stranger danger. Plus, Jack was upfront with his Big-Idea theory while I can’t tell if Johann was legit fishing with the self-shooting bit or if he just pulled a cya on that.

Quick-voted Mac because the linki is killing me here.

Quoth the G-Man: [VOTE: Hyena] aubergine

Linki- let me have my fun, people! Give the gun to Hyena or Mac. Let’s live dangerously.

Quack! Quack! Quack! is all I see and here. Maybe I’m dense because this setup is new to me, but how the frack are we supposed to retain anything with all this diarrhea of the mouth?

I was going to throw my vote to Mac so he can Mac the floor with you strangers tonight. Now I see his train has vanished. I’m going to vote for logic, protest vote for boo, and go sulk while I work into the waning hours of the night.

[VOTE: boo] aubergine

Qubbles and quarrels abound this afternoon. Allow me to spice things up for you.

[VOTE: Hyena] aubergine

Quarter after eight and I'm here instead of doing work. Great start to my day.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 12:45 am I don't think funny agreed with johann? She called him wrongtown iirc?

I interpreted the following post as walking back that initial stance on Johann's 'shoot ourselves' idea:

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 3:52 pm i think the johann read is more likely than not correct, but unless y'all have experience with them i wouldn't be so quick to label them wrongtown.

I can see now how that might not be the case. It looks more like civ-reading Johann for his bad idea. That changes my whole read of her. No time to go back now though.

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 1:22 am yeah ok i don't like g-man. you're town-reading boo for being logical and talking about strategy and mechanics? yo what does that actually have to do with scum hunting and finding reads?

I'm an INTP. Logic appeals to me. It's natural to gravitate toward people who convey logic.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 2:25 am I like G-man. I'ma put a good read on him.

Why?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 2:46 am

boo wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 7:33 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 4:51 am I have gamesolve anyway.

boo - scum
Dragomir - town
DrWilgy - doesn't matter cuz my towncore is big enough
Duskfall - town
Funnygurl555 - scum
G-Man - doesn't matter cuz my towncore is big enough
Hyena - town
Jackofhearts2005 - doesn't matter cuz my towncore is big enough
Johann - doesn't matter cuz my towncore is big enough
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - town
nutella - town
Sloonei - town

Shooting order:

FG > Boo > G-Man > Wilgy > Jack > Johann

Game winning POE already.

You're not great at math, huh? "doesn't matter cuz my towncore is big enough" = "if a single one of my scum reads is wrong [and spoiler alert: at least one is], following this would 100% lose the game. If both are right [nope], but my towncore is wrong, following this would 100% lose the game".

Or you're bad and think everyone else is terrible at figuring out odds?

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 2:49 am Anyway Mac is scum discuss.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine: shoot him, kthanks.

oh and then there was this! that post above was really bad but I think this one is when my scumread of boo really solidified. It's a gross misinterpretation of Mac's intentions, and maybe it's just boo being out of touch with Mac's style or general recent site meta, but it just felt like such a bad criticism that I think it was disingenuous and coming from a wolf trying to poke holes in mac's process. Like he's trying to make an argument that this doesn't make mathematical sense but that entirely misses the point. Maybe he's just an overly logical mathematical person but when he tries to impose that way of thinking on other people I find it suspicious.

What? I loved that post from boo. Now you're misleading people by planting the seed that boo is trying to impose his way of thinking on us. I didn't read this as seed-planting. I read it as boo making a logical point and teasing Mac a little for his his lazy list (which, knowing Mac was only half-serious to begin with). Why are you taking this to such an extreme?

But then you hedge:

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 2:50 am Actually as I was writing that last thing about boo I got a sinking feeling that he did a similar thing (imposing his rationality on others and disparaging other people's town/solving processes) in a recent game and was town. Maybe I can't defend my read very well based on that. I just have the bad gutsies about him. But also he is compatible with Hyena and flipped his read of me so there is more that substantiated my gut read.

Is hedgetella badtella?

Qualified list of who I am willing to vote for as of this moment (caught up btw). All names are in alphabetical order because it's too early to try to rank anyone yet:

Would Vote to Give the Gun to Them:
-boo: He has a very logical way about him. I like it and I agree with much of what he has said as far as his opinions on mechanics, strategy, etc go.
-G-Man: He knows that gun control means using both hands.
-Hyena: New-to-me player, but I like what I see so far.
-Jack: Normally Jack's confidence/arrogance irks me a little. His 'Big-Brain' concept makes sense though. THis probably means I am misreading him and he needs to die though.
-MacDougall: He forgot that the sign-ups specified the number of baddies. That's a civ-look for him. I also want to see what the new-to-me folks think/do when Mac does whatever he wants with the gun.

Might Consider Voting For Them:
-Duskfall: The black text was irksome. Thank you for reversing course. He got sucked into side banter with new-to-me folk that did nothing to help me get to know him. I do approve of the TMNT avatar, however Raphael was better.
-Nanook: Also got dragged into choppy off-topic banter. (We have OT green for this) His saving grace right now is the point about not going into the night with just one target in mind.

Would Not Vote for Them:
Dragomir: For agreeing with Johann's idea about self-killing.
Funnygurl: For agreeing with Johann's idea about self-killing.
Johann: For proposing the self-killing idea.

Need More Input/Need to ISO:
-DrWilgy
-nutella
-Sloonei

Johann wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 5:01 am True. But i speak for myself when i say if i dont see a good target i will shoot myself instead.

Quick take- I don't like this concept very much. If, as I've seen it suggested, using the gun is optional, I like abstention in the case of no reasonable targets. But really, if you don't go into the night phase with a POE shortlist in mind, why the heck didn't you tell people to vote for someone else?

Johann wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 6:09 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 5:54 am Like it's objectively suboptimal and I'm struggling to think how anyone thinks it could ever be a good idea in this setup

If you are given a gun to take the kill and you are suspected but townie. If you dont believe person you are told to kill is town you should kill yourself instead

You are already suspected and if you dont believe your target is scum you should rather take your life than theirs. If you shoot someone and they are townie it doesnt change anything, but if you kill yourself you just removed yourself so your team can focus on others

I see this expounded upon, but I think it's idealistic to assume that the gun recipient is going to kill whomever the majority of the group wishes them to kill. I don't envision voting for someone to receive the gun so they will do what I tell them. I'm going to vote for someone whose judgement seems the most trustworthy in that moment. If they shoot me, well then that's a lesson learned for next time. If they misfire and kill a civ, then we can analyze that and it also reduces the POE.


And then Johann says it was a bad idea, so... fishing? New person. Can't read. That does not compute. I still like the people who were critical of the idea. By that I mean, I trust their judgement. Not sure how to develop civ reads in this game, but I'm whittling down the list of people I would trust with the gun tonight.

Quivering at the thought of catching up, but here we go. Let's see who all I can rule out of being worthy of my vote!

nutella wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 2:38 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 12:31 pm Quirky setup. This should be fun. Lots of new-to-me faces though. We’ll see how this goes.

Give me the gun and I promise to kill whoever came in second in the poll just to keep things spicy!

Oooh yay it's Q time!!

Quite true, thought this difficult letter might have been better suited for B-K. We'll see where it takes me.

Hyena wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 4:20 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 12:31 pm Quirky setup. This should be fun. Lots of new-to-me faces though. We’ll see how this goes.

Give me the gun and I promise to kill whoever came in second in the poll just to keep things spicy!

Lol, this smells scummy, Although I feel this was intended to be a joke, I can't help but feel like this is actually semi-serious. Just the feels of it.

Give me the gun and you'll find out.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 11, 2020 4:52 am @DrWilgy @G-Man give me some content so I can solve your slots early please. None of this lurky shit.

To me, Mac, lurking means you are visibly looking at the thread but not engaging it. I was simply absent. Mother's Day is pretty sacred, so the computer was pretty off-limits yesterday. Not that I had much time for it anyway- I made cinnamon buns for breakfast, started our chicken & stuffing dinner prep at noon, and worked on a rainbow unicorn cake for dessert while dinner cooked. I'll catch up on all the chatter over lunch and this evening. It's Monday, which means I'm back to fitting in 8 hours of full-time job work each day around my wife's Zoom schedule, my 8-year-old's Zoom schedule, and a very needy 4-year-old's attempts to negotiate additional TV time through it all.

Quirky setup. This should be fun. Lots of new-to-me faces though. We’ll see how this goes.

Give me the gun and I promise to kill whoever came in second in the poll just to keep things spicy!