The Syndicate

Epignosis wrote:Night 1, we talked a little about killing based on avatars, but decided that killing whomever we deemed likely to win the question was the better strategy. Ultimately, it pretty much came down to taking out whomever was being the loudest at Night.

Back in the day night-hiding was common but I always felt it gave an advantage to the baddies, especially in speed games where there is precious little time to engage in discussion. Too much night discussion can obviously help the baddies too but I was rarely around within an hour of the night post to talk then.

Interesting that, in a back-to-basics game, the baddies reverted to the back-to-basics tactic of intimidating civvies into being quiet at night. It also didn't hurt you guys too much that participation was hit or miss from several civvies throughout the game. I hope you guys didn't overthink your strategies and decisions too much because certain civvies made it pretty easy for you to win.

That was painful to watch play out. Golden, I will now vote for you automatically on Day 1 if there is no obvious baddie slip-up. As with Economics, you being bad only started to make sense to me near the very end. I never pegged Epi as a baddie. Did you guys plan to set up DDL to be steamrolled or did he come by that on his own? Either way, it was the perfect way for Epi and Golden to sink to the bottom of everyone's suspect lists.

I'm glad I was right about DDL and SD but that only helps confirm that I still totally suck as a civvie.

Well done, you two. I am about to pay you the highest compliment I can give in this game: I hate you both.

Dear Living Players,

No offense to any of you who may be fans, but I find myself tiring of this Doctor Who marathon. I couldn't garner any interest in revivng the comedy act, nor could I convince anyone to join me in rehearsing a drama. With nothing to do but watch crudely-produced British sci-fi, I pulled a mutiny of sorts.

It turns out TurnipHead has been sleeping on top of a tablet computer all this time. I only found it because I wanted to stretch out too but the floor wasn't cutting it anymore. I uncerimoniously dumped our dear turnipy friend onto the floor. Lo and behold, there was the tablet!

While everyone else watches the Doctor change for the fifth or sixth time (seriously, I'm losing track), I've been surfing the web. The nerd in me was drawn to the World Health Organization website. There are a number of educational yet alarming reports there. I did pretty well in biology, so the terminology hasn't bothered me too much.

We're still placing bets as to the identities of the final mafia members. Seriously guys...

TTFN,

-G

Dear Living Players,

Sorry I didn't write to you during the last day phase. Ricochet and I were working on another comedy bit. I think the classic rock fans are really going to like this one.



We hoped to try that one out on Missing Person but when he showed up, he just crashed on the loveseat. Needless to say, we're starting to run out of useable furniture.

Fingersplints has really helped bridge the gap between our two camps. I think Spacedaisy appreciates having another woman here. Dragon is slowly warming up to the idea of rehearsing a one-act play. If we get one more woman in here and can convince TurnipHead and Missing Person to get on their feet, we could even do one of my favorites- Agatha Christie's The Mousetrap. Who doesn't like a murder mystery?

Until next time,

-G

Dear Living Players,

Even though there are five of us hanging around here on the other side, let's just say things have been a little clique-ish. Ever since Spacedaisy got here, she and Dragon have been largely keeping to themselves. I can understand it but I wish there was a little more unity. It doesn't help that TurnipHead is still sleeping on the couch all the time.

Anywho, Ricochet and I have been spending a lot of time together since we're getting the cold shoulder from You Know Who #1 and #2. In an effort to keep things light, we've being working on a comedy routine. We're getting pretty good with the classics, like this one:



As we build up our timing, chemistry, and rapport, we may even tackle some highbrow stuff, like Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead. Maybe we can even re-write it for The Syndicate and call it Ricochet and G-Man Are Dead. Now that sounds like a winner! We'll keep practicing our duo shtick but we'll be more than happy to make room for whichever one of you will be joining us next.

See one of you soon!


-G

Dear Living Players,

It took me some time to calm down after learning I was dead. Once I finally came to my senses, I was allowed to join my fellow dead players. Dragon gave me a fairly cool reception but we're working past our differences. Ricochet has been pacing around the room a lot. He's really itching to play again. TurnipHead, however, hasn't said much of anything. He seems to be our resident guy-on-the-couch. I thought I heard him mumble something in his sleep but I could be wrong.

It's kind of hard to have a raucous party with only three people (again, TurnipHead just kind of lounges about), so we're hopeful to get some company in here soon. Only one question really remains to be answered:



Until next time,


-Balaam G-Man

Actually, the host/dead/non option made me think of these gems:

Cool beans, Llama. I kinda figured that was the case. I'm lucky that I can find ample time during work to play. Once again, my wife doesn't know I'm playing another mafia game so I gotta keep things on the down-low at home.

Glad you see part of where I'm coming from. Both Biblical and Econ taught me that I can't rely too firmly on my spreadsheets and vote analysis. Lucky for me, this game is short enough to re-read.

I'll try to jump back in with some more thoughts before the night post goes up. I'm suspect I may not make it through the night after going all Balaam on Dragon's ass.

Elohcin wrote:A little over three hours to get your PMs to the host! C'mon kids...participate. I promise it's more fun that way. :P

Better believe I sent mine in. I want fun!

Aw, come on Llama. You can't pout about not having anyone interested in talking and then disappear when someone actually wants to talk.

I was so excited and pumped up to do some nighttime talking and you're leaving me hanging. You're killing my mojo, man. I beg of you...

thellama73 wrote:I learned in Biblical Mafia that I do a lot better looking at the vote record than at what people say. I think Golden's Day 1 vote looks bad. He put the third vote on Missing Person when Dragon had three votes. Granted, TH had four at that time, but I still think it looks bad. His Day 2 vote for Dragon came late enough to be potential underbusthrowery. Then again, I'm one to talk, since I voted even later than him. I just don't feel good about him right now.

Zero disagreement on the potential shadiness of his Day 1 vote. His Day 2 vote, however, only came in an hour after my vote (the first for Dragon).

Do you think that he simply felt that he had to commit to voting a teammate after that dust-up even though there was potentially nine more votes left to be cast?

Or do you think that he saw three votes against Dragon and thought it wise to join in on the popular choice given his dust-up with Dragon?

Here's another question associated with what you've said- is one hour's time and three votes really enough to bus a teammate with 9 votes still outstanding?

thellama73 wrote:What, I'm finally back and no one wants to talk?

Yo Llama, I'll get my chat on with you. I see we both made lists of where we think people stand. I disagree with the following from your list:

thellama73 wrote:
Probably Mafia
Golden
Maybe Mafia
spacedaisy
MetalMarsh89
Epignosis
Probably Not Mafia
Missing Person
Roxy
thellama73

If I were to put those people in a list it would look like this:


Probably Mafia
spacedaisy
MetalMarsh89
Missing Person

Maybe Mafia
Roxy
thellama73

Probably Not Mafia
Epignosis
Golden


First and foremost, let's talk about Golden. Our opinions of him seem to be polar opposites. Can you elaborate on why you think he is probably mafia even after his confrontation of Dragon yesterday?

Xeroxing Day 2's results may actually be possible. Here are some observations coming off the second vote:

Who looks better coming off the Dragon lynch?
Epignosis- He voted for Dragon twice. On Day 1, he started the train on Dragon with the fifth vote of the day- that's bold to do on a teammate so early. I wouldn't put it past Epi to sell out a teammate with such vigor though. If he plays half as well as he hosts, it's worth keeping back in the deep recesses of our minds as we move forward. For now though, he looks pretty darn clean.

Fingersplints- Her Day 1 vote brought Dragon into a tie with TurnipHead. I'm not sure I have seen a a baddie vote to tie a teammate for the lead yet while playing here. Her missing vote, however, is unfortunate.

G-Man- Yeah, I blew it on TurnipHead but he was a sacrifice the Island game demanded. I think my little dust-up with Dragon should clear my name pretty well. There seemed to be a handful of people getting bad vibes from me earlier. How about now?

Golden- He and I formed a very tight bond during Biblical, so I hope that I am not falling victim to wishful thinking. He went hard at Dragon Day 2 and helped catch him in a lie / espousing misinformation. In a game this small, one or two teammates can be viewed as expendable but Dragon had his sights on Golden and Golden's reaction seemed legit to me. His Day 1 vote is still interesting and that should become clearer with another vote or two.

Nijuukyugou- Even though she missed the Day 2 vote, her Day 1 vote could speak volumes for her. Here is another vote that tied Dragon for the lead. Until I see baddies tie up teammates, I will continue to assume this makes someone look good.



Who looks neither better nor worse coming off the Dragon lynch?
Roxy-Sure, she voted for Dragon Day 2, but it could be that she saw three or more people throwing shade on Dragon and realized a teammate was going down. No shame in helping put down the expendable when there's still three of you left. Remember- her Day 1 vote for Golden took a little pressure off of Dragon.

Llama- Maybe two posts all of Day 2? Looking at his post history there is very little interaction between Llama and Dragon. His Day 1 vote was sensible but his Day 2 vote could be viewed as opportunistic. His vote also came in near the end of the votes that were cast. Four or five votes is probably all it's going to take to lynch someone in this game so you can't not keep in mind that he joined the party at the end of the train.

Timmer-A random vote Day 1 and a no vote on Day 2 leaves Timmer with virtually nothing to build a case on. Hopefully he shows up in earnest Day 3.



Who looks worse coming off the Dragon lynch?
Black Rock- The missing vote Day 2 coupled with the oddly timed/forgotten vote Day 1 doesn't improve her status. Still, I only see her as slightly bad at the moment.

Hedgeowl- Two missed votes leaves us with nothing to go on. There's also little to no post history to build a read off of. It looks worse to me because I'm used to seeing at least one baddie try to coast through speed games. If there is one, my bet is that it's her.

MetalMarsh89- Strange posts are strange and I mostly trust Golden.

Missing Person- I can look past the tardy avatar upload but following that up with two missed votes is inexcusable. Not much meat to be found on this one. I'm not a vegetarian, so let's make with the meat, please. Where's the beef?

Spacedaisy- Between her votes and her posts, she probably looks the worst of anyone right now. I don't see how you look at Day 2 Dragon and not reach the same conclusion as everyone else who voted for him. Expect your Day 3 to be intense, ma'am.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:The reason why you changed your mind isn't what is important here, it's the fact you are accusing me being bad for holding an opinion you held yourself at some point.

One possibility is that you're mafia trying to get me lynched. But if you're town, then at the very least it means you're being sloppy. Because your whole reason for lynching me is based on the fact I said something you disagree with, even though you said the same thing a little before. Sure, the context means you weren't as informed as you were when you changed your mind, but you can't just declare every person who says something you disagree with a mafioso and do it again every time you change your opinion.

Where I think the problem lies in your reasoning (and what ultimately brought you down) is that you assumed my comment about "momentum" on Golden from my votes-only analysis was something I believed in. Those initial comments were even described as observations. There is a big, big difference between an observation and a belief. I never said I believed that there was momentum on Golden; I merely stated that any momentum evaporated very quickly. I even said that I needed to re-read the thread. That re-read was partly to verify that there was any momentum on Golden.

You jokingly told me after my statistical analysis of Econ Mafia (my computation of the likelihood that one of the original Mafia team would have a baddie role again after the reset) that I wasn't very good at statistics. I got an A+ in Elementary Stats in college and was almost a math major. One of the many things I took away from that class was that association does not imply causation. Two votes close together can appear like momentum but it is just an association. Just because the vote order makes it look like there may have been momentum does not mean there ever was any momentum.

I think it was you who was just a hair sloppy in jumping on my comment. That was the straw that broke the camel's back. You didn't believe it and I think that came through. Lesson learned- you know what happens when you assume. And thanks to Biblical Mafia, I know asses pretty well!

Good game though. You will undoubtedly learn from this and make for a very formidable baddie the next time.

Roxy wrote:Gman sorry if I sound false perhaps you should reread my posts bc I have not said anything I have not said before in other games.

Seems you want to see me as bad I would like to know why.

Perhaps you're right. I think I came into this game and Economics looking more negatively about everyone I've known from forums past. I guess I just know you guys are all awesome and I don't want to get snookered. It served me fairly well in Economics though, so I didn't see a need to let it go. For the record, I still don't. Take it as a compliment.

Golden wrote:A full 50% of people didn't vote. Come on people! Where are you all?

Yeah, this is shameful you guys. Our voter turnout percentage was worse than the voter turnout in the last four United States presidential elections.
Think of your P-Scores!

Elohcin wrote:

Day 2 Result

Majority rules! Dragon D. Luffy has been put down. He was a member of the Guess Who mafia.

You have 23 hours to submit your night action.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:And seriously, G-Man, this time you're contradicting yourself. You can't say this:

8. There was never any momentum for a Golden lynch- just weak or non-stated reasons.

After saying this:

6. Whatever momentum there was for voting Golden stalled out halfway through the votes.

You clearly said you think there was momentum for a Golden lynch. Yes, you admitted it was stalled, but that's the exact same thing I'm saying. Now you're going back with it to implicate me?

You can't say something and then pretend you didn't so you can get someone lynched. If anything, that looks like a cheap way from your part of trying to start a bandwagon.

DId you actually make your technicolor thingy because you wanted people to read it, or did you make it just to try to make it look like you have opinions and then hopefully use it to drive the thread in the direction you want?

Very sneaky there Dragon but you're ignoring the context.

My first comment you quoted was from a raw, votes-only analysis. Two votes in a reasonably short time frame can give the appearance of momentum. I wanted to go back and see if there was any.

My second comment you quoted is from after I read the Day 1 posts and found that there was no momentum for a Golden lynch.

Data doesn't lie but it can be manipulated. You, Dragon, are manipulating my words. Stop manipulating my data!

Epignosis wrote:

G-Man wrote:7. Quiet Epi is quiet.

I don't think I've been quiet.

Ultimately, it feels like you've been quiet, even if you are near the top of the post count.

Other notes from my re-read:

Roxy wrote:Well thats a bummer bc I wanted to play with Ricochet I was feeling good vibes from him

I wonder if he made someone nervous with his mad mafia skillz

He could have made any of the TH voters quite nervous llama, Gman, Daisy and BR. I got the feeling he was more suspicious of llama and Gman than the girls. But I think we should consider all of them.

I still have not forgotten about Golden and his play Day 1.

Call me crazy but this whole post just sounds so false to me. Like she's trying to put up a front of helpfulness by nudging us in the direction of people who voted for a very logical choice.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:G-Man: 90% of what this guy says should be green or orange. Seriously. Other than that, there's some discussion on whether to lynch inactives or not, followed by the second vote on TH. Consistent, but lacking any bigger contribution to the game. Well, this is a guy who claims not to take the game seriously, but I can't help but think he was a lot more active and useful in Economics. There, he was posting reads and arguing with people everyday, which I'm not seeing much here. Leaning baddie on this one.

I'm sorry. *gasp* I just *gasp* find this hilarious! I'm pretty sure you were one of the people who hated my picture posting in Economics and thought it was more distracting than useful.

Golden wrote:@G-Man, yes, now you see what I am saying about 'momentum for a golden lynch'. It didn't exist. DDL jumping on that definitely has me going; I would have said economics DDL was better at thinking and analysing for himself.

I think MM was trying to create momentum on me. He was the second vote on me in economics and, while he was good in that game, he lynched me as a civ doing it, and I don't think he is at all blind to what he could have achieved there.

That or Dragon was anticipating me NOT re-reading. Too bad for him I actually did!

MM failed pretty miserably at creating momentum on you by not explaining his vote. Like at all.

Dang I like these small, quietish games! Just finished through Night 1. My thoughts:

1. MM looking stranger and stranger (and it's not the hat or mustache)
2. Nudging Missing Person into my leaning baddie list.
3. Nudging Hedgeowl to my leaning baddie list.
4. I like Ricochet's theory on Llama but I feel like his death may be too obvious a setup. Then again, they may be counting on that and went for the obvious kill since this game is so small.
5. Curious to hear more from Splints on how SpaceDaisy flipping bad would make her look more at Timmer. I can understand a random D1 vote and he was only the 4th to vote.
6. I like Ricochet's Missing Person points. Again- danger of the setup but if only one of Llama and Missing are bad, then the baddies may have taken a risk and hoped we'd latch onto the wrong option.
7. Quiet Epi is quiet.

My vote now is between: Dragon, Hedgeowl, MM, and Roxy

Just finished re-reading through Day 1. Going to re-read night one soonish. My impressions:

1. Hard pick apart votes because a number of people had some very valid reasons behind their votes.
2. The four voters that stick out to me are MetalMarsh, Roxy, Black Rock, and Spacedaisy.
3. MM never actually gave full-fledged reasons for his vote.
4. Roxy's post have sounded falser than Splints on the whole new/returning player issue. Roxy's posts just sound odd to me.
5. I'm having a hard time believing BR would post her intention to vote TH but then not do it.
6. Spacedaisy seems to have some weak justification for her vote and for her elimination of other popular suspects.
7. Specifically, my eyebrows raised over her soft defense of DDL.
8. There was never any momentum for a Golden lynch- just weak or non-stated reasons.
9. Point #8 makes me look even harder at Dragon.
10. I have no solid reads yet (because I suck at it) but the five people I lean baddie on right now are: Black Rock, Dragon, MM, Roxy, and Spacedaisy. We'll see how that changes as I read through the night phase.
11. I'm hoping to see more from Missing Person and Hedgeowl. The latter's silence has her bordering on a slight baddie read simply because in a small game it's easy for one baddie to pull that strategy.

If I had to vote now, I'd have to choose between Roxy and Dragon.

Screwed up that post a little bit. I had more to say at the beginning. Ah well. I'll post it with the re-read info.

You know what this game needs? TECHNICOLOR VOTE ANALYSIS!

1. TURNIPHEAD (Llama)
2. TURNIPHEAD (G-Man)
3. GOLDEN (MetalMarsh)
4. SPACEDAISY (Timmer)
5. DRAGON (Epi)
6. DRAGON (Niju)
7. GOLDEN (Roxy)
8. TURNIPHEAD (BR)
9. DRAGON (Splints)
10. MISSING PERSON (Dragon)
11. MISSING PERSON (Ricochet)<----civvie
12. TURNIPHEAD (Spacedaisy)
13. MISSING PERSON (Golden)

Not Voting: Hedgeowl, Missing Person, TurnipHead




1. TURNIPHEAD (Llama)
2. TURNIPHEAD (G-Man)
8. TURNIPHEAD (BR)
12. TURNIPHEAD (Spacedaisy)


5. DRAGON (Epi)
6. DRAGON (Niju)
9. DRAGON (Splints)


10. MISSING PERSON (Dragon)
11. MISSING PERSON (Ricochet)<----civvie
13. MISSING PERSON (Golden)


3. GOLDEN (MetalMarsh)
7. GOLDEN (Roxy)


4. SPACEDAISY (Timmer)


Not Voting:
Hedgeowl
Missing Person
TurnipHead<----civvie

It's far too early to be terribly effective but I'm hopeful that, with a game this small, it may still point us in the right direction.

The following are my observations before I try to re-read thread content. They may or may not be 100% objective.

1. TurnipHead flipping civvie means that we can rest assured that none of the votes for other players were an attempt to save TH.
2. TurnipHead flipping civvie means that we can look for votes for TH that were an attempt to save other player getting votes.
3. The two TH votes that look the fishiest to me are Black Rock and Spacedaisy.
4. Black Rock's vote for TH broke a three-way tie between Dragon, Golden and TH.
5. Point #4 could suggest BR is teammates with either Dragon or Golden.
6. Whatever momentum there was for voting Golden stalled out halfway through the votes.
7. Splints voted to re-tie Dragon and TH for the lead.
8. Point #7 could be a sign that Splints and Golden are teammates.
9. The late momentum for Missing Person is intriguing and I look forward to finding out what the impetus for that was.
10. We know that it was not a complete team-oriented attempt serve up another lynch option besides Dragon because Ricochet was the 2nd vote for Missing Person*
11. Point #10 does not exonerate Golden or Dragon from suspicion.
12. It is remarkably noble of Dragon to not vote the easy option of TH even though he was tied with TH at the time of his vote.
13. Point #12 could indicate that Dragon was comfortable in not voting TH because he knew he still had help waiting in the wings.
14. Point #12 could indicate that Dragon's shrewd intellect knew that not dying and not voting for TH would look better than being a late, possibly decisive vote on a civ lynch.
15. Spacedaisy's late vote for TH could indicate alignment with either Dragon, Golden, or Missing Person.

*side not- sorry, I cannot abbreviate Missing Person to MP because that is my abbreviation for MovingPictures07.


That's it for now. As I re-read some of the game content, I will be looking closely at the following players:
-Black Rock
-Dragon
-Fingersplints
-Golden
-Hedgeowl
-Missing Person
-Spacedaisy

R&R was great the last two days! Now that I'm back though, I'll have to dig in pretty thoroughly. I see TH was civvie and he mafia killed off Ricochet. No reason for baddies to take out one of their own in a game this small, so RIP to both of you!

I'll try to re-read the whole thread tonight/tomorrow if I can. I skimmed over everything since I voted and I feel like I need to revisit that especially. I voted early and given how close the results were, I'd like to think that we can a few people whose votes stand out based on both timing and reasoning.

Quick vote and then I gotta take off until Saturday. TurnipHead hasn't shown his turnipy mug yet so I'm voting for him. I hope Missing Person uploads an avatar pic by the end of the day or that poses some serious problems. Either that or it makes out first question to the host very easy- are any of the mafia members represented by a blank image?

Probably going to vote in the next 30-45 minutes. Somebody slip up!

thellama73 wrote:

Elohcin wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

G-Man wrote:

thellama73 wrote: The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3.

Just curious- shouldn't that be 4/16 with a 75% chance of lynching a civilian?

Yes. You passed my clever test.

So I thought the same thing while reading llama's post. But then I thought, "well, this is llama writing this so it must be right somehow." This is how highly I think of Llama's intelligence and how unconfident I am in my own.

Do I talk too much as a host?

I talk a lot as a host too. I like when the host chats with us, especially when I have no chatzy to talk to you in AM I RIGHT, CIVVIES!?

Oui oui my fine fezzed friend.

Elohcin wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

G-Man wrote:

thellama73 wrote: The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3.

Just curious- shouldn't that be 4/16 with a 75% chance of lynching a civilian?

Yes. You passed my clever test.

So I thought the same thing while reading llama's post. But then I thought, "well, this is llama writing this so it must be right somehow." This is how highly I think of Llama's intelligence and how unconfident I am in my own.

Do I talk too much as a host?

No. Just wait until you see me host a game!

thellama73 wrote:

G-Man wrote:

thellama73 wrote:I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

You won't piss me off. I'm considering voting for him if he doesn't show by the time I have to vote, which is about two hours from now.

It would be the kind thing to do. Protect his participation score.

More importantly, given TurnipHead's absence from another game at the moment, he could become a distraction and a liability to the civvies if he is a civvie and his absence persists. In a game this tight, an absentee civvie is the baddie team's best friend. They sure as heck won't kill off a civvie player who is not actively playing. They'll leave them hanging out there as long as possible for the civvies to fret over.

timmer wrote:And I say if MP can't get an avatar by tonight, there are plenty of funny gifs out there we could use FOR her. In the meantime... this cracked me up.

LOL! I was going to sarcastically suggest that very question. You, sir, have one-upped me.

thellama73 wrote:I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

You won't piss me off. I'm considering voting for him if he doesn't show by the time I have to vote, which is about two hours from now.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I agreed with this:

G-Man wrote:Glad you're okay with getting lynched early.

Though it seems G-Man wasn't being serious about it, but I still think it was worth pointing out.

You didn't give up? Fine. But that was the vibe I got from your post, and when I see anything suspicious, I'll point it out, even if it is probably not an useful clue. Sooner or later something will be.

Know this, Dragon: I like to joke around a LOT during the first couple of days. I'm kind of a smart ass like that. Years ago I may have been more serious but I've gone soft with age, so assume I'm joking until I say otherwise.

timmer wrote:While I don't really like that Roxy and splints said they wouldn't vote MP due to a missing avatar (this game DOES revolve around having one, naturally) I would NOT say that splints' posts have been defeatist. Veteran players sometimes just know where they stand, and are happy to put it out there and make people vote them for it. Like, if splints is civ, and meant what she said, there is nothing for her to do or say at this moment than just hope for the best. Veteran players know that sometimes you get lynched on Day 1 for stupid things and tend not to take it personally.

It's not technically throwing in the towel, it's just being comfortable with what you've said and accepting that sometimes you get the heave ho early in a game and that's how mafia works.

This x 1,000,000.
We mafia geezers who know each other from before the Republicans took back the House of Representatives aren't typically fazed by comments like those made by Roxy or Splints unless they fit into a recent pattern.

thellama73 wrote:

G-Man wrote:

thellama73 wrote: The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3.

Just curious- shouldn't that be 4/16 with a 75% chance of lynching a civilian?

Yes. You passed my clever test.

Do I get a sticker?

thellama73 wrote: The probability of any player being bad is therefore 4 / 12 = 0.33, so the odds of lynching a civilian from a random vote are 2/3.

Just curious- shouldn't that be 4/16 with a 75% chance of lynching a civilian?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

Roxy wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:G-Man did not vote, though. Guess he was trying to pressure her.

He has a point though, defeatist posts like this one splints made usually point out to mafia. Townies don't give up that easily.

I have as a townie.

These kind of blanket statements without any back up is silly.

Townies give up as much as baddies do.
It has more to do with rl than whether bad or good.

Well, I'm speaking from my own experience here. Don't know about yours. Last game I played in my forum TWO mafiosos gave up when they were being lynched.

But the thing is, they weren't necessarily giving up. They were probably just attempting to make people give up on lynching them by looking distressed. One of them even threatened to use an ability to redirect the lynch into a confirmed townie.

But town usually has no reason to do that. Specially in a game like this where town has to survive to win.

So I'm talking about giving up in terms of in-game strategy. Real life is an entirely different matter, and I have no business trying to analyse that.

I think every player is different in terms of their willingness to just throw in the towel as a baddie. It almost always depends on the situation- the baddie team's perceived strength, actual team #'s, and how that individual felt when they woke up that morning.

I mean, look at what I did in BoB. I neither gave up, nor did I fight to the bitter end. I think it's a little too early to be calling anyone defeatist. It is never too early, however, to find "well if that's how you want to play, then take me out now" posts fishy. Here fishy fishy fishy!

thellama73 wrote:Guys, an awful lot of people haven't even checked in yet. Settle down.

Um, no. The only player who hasn't posted yet since this thread went live is TurnipHead.

Roxy wrote:I agree with Dragon inre: the bolded portion. It is an easy way out of taking responsilbility for his own vote. He can later just say "Golly I guess he should have gotten an avaatar and proved he wants to play. My vote was his fault omg!"

In a game this small I can see the logic of not voting for a low-poster or an inactive player. Statistically speaking, every vote is going to matter quite a bit in this game seeing as it's 12 against 4. Our advantage over the baddies will drop very quickly if we don't nab one of them the first two days. If this were a full game, I would argue that going after low-posters and non-participants makes sense. It seems that in my years away from the game that this philosophy has changed. Can anyone tell me when and why that changed?

Roxy wrote:

G-Man wrote:

fingersplints wrote:If I am suspicious for thinking it is unfair to vote a newer player for a silly reason like he hasn't been able to upload an avatar yet then so be it. If that is how we will be hunting baddies probably for the best to get rid of me now anyways because I will never agree that that is a good way to go about it

Glad you're okay with getting lynched early. My plan is to vote out the people who are better looking than me. Considering that everyone is better looking than me, I'm glad somebody stepped forward and volunteered to go first. It makes my Day 1 decision that much easier.

*votes splints*

Looks like I may be voting Gman bc of his vote and his reasoning. It feels very baddie-ish.

But we have time and someone could do something worse.

Should I have put that in sarcastic orange perhaps?

fingersplints wrote:If I am suspicious for thinking it is unfair to vote a newer player for a silly reason like he hasn't been able to upload an avatar yet then so be it. If that is how we will be hunting baddies probably for the best to get rid of me now anyways because I will never agree that that is a good way to go about it

Glad you're okay with getting lynched early. My plan is to vote out the people who are better looking than me. Considering that everyone is better looking than me, I'm glad somebody stepped forward and volunteered to go first. It makes my Day 1 decision that much easier.

*votes splints*

G-Man wrote:Eloh, is there a reason for the disrupted ordering of the pictures in the player graphic? I see the first three columns proceed in alphabetical order going across but then it jumps to the top of the fourth column and goes down in order. Was that just to keep the image balanced better visually? I'm not complaining about being sandwiched between the hotness of Splints and Golden the Coward (seriously dude, you should consider keeping that pic permanently- it's awesome) but the layout does deprive me of leading off row #2.

Forget it Elo, I was wrong. The first 9x9 box is in order but the first three in the bottom row are not. It's the accountant in me looking for order and meaning in things that require neither.

Eloh, is there a reason for the disrupted ordering of the pictures in the player graphic? I see the first three columns proceed in alphabetical order going across but then it jumps to the top of the fourth column and goes down in order. Was that just to keep the image balanced better visually? I'm not complaining about being sandwiched between the hotness of Splints and Golden the Coward (seriously dude, you should consider keeping that pic permanently- it's awesome) but the layout does deprive me of leading off row #2.

Missing Person wrote:

My day getting to Seoul was horrible. Here now, going to read the thread and post my thoughts. I'll try to take a theme picture so give me a bit.

Channeling Kramer? Had you done something like this...

...I'd have been impressed enough to take you off my list of options for the day.



And then the thread explodes with posts.

Ricochet wrote:I have plenty worse things to hide from people in my society than the fact that I play Mafia.

Dare I ask? You've piqued my curiosity.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:From my experience hiding the fact you are a nerd only leads to suffering.

Can anyone really hide the fact that they are a nerd? Thankfully my wife was friends with my sister before we started dating, so she knew full well how big a nerd I was. Even had she not been my sister's friend, I think she would have guessed it pretty quickly. I have an aura about me that screams nerd. It's probably the glasses.

Roxy wrote:Good morning!

Just to be contrary I will be voting for whoever votes for Missing Persons bc they have not done an avatar.

I have not played with Missing yet so I am taking my newbie stance

But will you vote for someone voting for Missing Person for a reason besides the avatar issue?

Alright alright alright! Now this is my kind of speed game. I miss the first 10 hours and I only have one page to catch up on.

thellama73 wrote:Oh hi guys, what's happening? This game is starting just as I am about to go out of town for Independence Day, so that's awesome. I won't miss votes though, because I CARE!

Just like Llama, I too am going to disappear for Take That You Dirty Redcoats Independence Day. Llama may get my vote because I feel like he is insinuating that I don't care. I told you guys during signups that I'd be going off the grid until Saturday but I failed to mention that I do care about the game. Llama is just sucking up. :P

thellama73 wrote:Also, I'm announcing now that I will vote for Missing Person if there is no avatar by the time I leave for the airport tomorrow.

I could get behind this though. To be continued...