The Syndicate

Stephen wrote:If I do die tonight, I can 99% vouch for Lot and Samuel at this point. Also feeling very good about Bathsheba and Jacob. Town needs to stick together and really put in 100% to win this game. It is now possible, with Lot's survival.

It would be very silly for the wolves to eat me tonight though, lest they want to completely ruin their potential conquest.

Requoting this from right after Chapter III's lynch. I still believe this is true.

I will be voting for either Pilate or Rahab tomorrow, assuming I'm still alive.

Rebecca should be ashamed, she might have cost the civilians the game. Let's hope not. What a terrible display.

Oh well.

I'm voting 24 hours, I suppose.

Wow, WTF. It must be Rahab and Pilate. I can't believe it.

I have cast my vote for Rebecca. Normally, I would argue that we wait longer, but I believe we've discussed it sufficiently. I really hope she isn't just a terribly disengaged civilian, but I highly doubt it.

Jacob wrote:Belshazzar was a Horseman, not a Heathen. Still, I think your earlier record was decent (maybe not "unimpeachable" but there were some points in your favor although I did suspect you a couple times) but I think it is possible you are recruited Judas. Anyway I think Rebecca is the priority for today.

Pretty much this.

Is anyone nervous about Rebecca being town and/or does anyone have any better suggestions? It seems we're all in agreement. Just want to keep the discussion going.

As long as we all are in a consensus for voting Rebecca, I think we should do that. Once that flip occurs, and assuming it's a scum flip, then we'll have Chapter V and we can discuss Pilate and Rahab (as well as others) in even more detail.

That's not to say I think we should stop discussion here, far from it, but I do think it's good that we're coming to an early coalescence around Rebecca. I suppose how could we not though? Rebecca's behavior is ridiculously scummy.

Lot wrote:

Stephen wrote:Thanks, Lot. I would agree with you that Rahab is the #2 after Rebecca, but what do you make of Pilate spearheading the move against you this past lynch? That's what put him above Rahab for me.

I still think there is a chance that Pilate just isn't reading the thread.

He dropped back into reading it on the day I flipped out on Absalom. I can understand why that might look a bit shady if you couldn't be bothered actually reading the whole thread and decided just to start from there. He came up with a theory that I was Isaac's teammates which I think anyone who is reading could see was nonsense.

So - the fact his suspicions didn't make a lick of sense has me thinking it's possible he is civilian, funnily enough. But I wouldn't be opposed to having him above Rahab, I just think Rahab's vote yesterday sticks out for me.

That's a fair perspective. You could very well be right.

I do agree that Rahab's actions, if seen through a mafia lens, make her seem more intentionally or subtly manipulative type of scummy, whereas Pilate's would be very brazen and aggressive.

I agree, I don't like the way Rahab threw off during that last lynch one bit. It was really suspicious.

Thanks, Lot. I would agree with you that Rahab is the #2 after Rebecca, but what do you make of Pilate spearheading the move against you this past lynch? That's what put him above Rahab for me.

Noted, Lot. Why do you think Rahab is more likely to be a wolf than Pilate?

I agree on starting off with Rebecca. I cannot fathom her behavior has a town mindset at this point.

And I know this will inevitably become a topic of discussion, so I want to address it. As to why I came into this game post-house explosion as very talkative, then dropped off mostly for the remainder of the game, only to recently resurface, there are various reasons I did this.

1) Busy RL and other commitments have been keeping me occupied.
2) I wanted to see how the previous few cycles went particularly before committing to strong opinions of most players, since there were still too many unknowns to aggressively pursue suspects with any semblance of high confidence, especially after the failed Jonathan and Jeph lynches.

May it be known.

Now I have to go again. Good luck in the contest, Absalom!

I was worried about over-relying on admitting voting records as solid evidence this late in the game when it seemed the wolves could easily win this game, but the most recent lynch changes everything. It completely altered the dynamic of the game and destroyed what otherwise would have been a very likely wolf win.

Therefore, I feel that relying on the voting record for Book II: Chapter III is perhaps the strongest evidence we've had this entire game.

Regarding Rahab, yes, she is the most helpful seeming and seems least likely in that regard of the three, since Rebecca and Pilate are outright wolfy, but Rahab's voting record is what sinks her. In addition, her vote this past lynch was a suspicious noncommittal "throw off" vote, with her reasoning appearing more fabricated than yours. She also looks worse than you in terms of overall voting record this game and in terms of subtle manipulation of the thread.

Regarding Lot, Samuel, Bathsheba, and Jacob, all four voted for Deborah, a confirmed wolf, in perhaps the most important lynch of the game, and that's saying something. There is no way that a wolf teammate of Deborah would unnecessarily throw her under when they were pulling off a power play:

If they were to eliminate Lot, they would have Deborah still alive (and thus 3 wolves of 11 players), kill someone tonight (3 of 10), they would have taken out the most talkative civilian in this game and could practically control every lynch thereafter. That's why they decided to make the ballsy move to get rid of Lot. Consequently, I think it would be ridiculously stupid for any of the 3 wolves to work in direct opposition to such a power play, as it defeats the purpose of the play. The fact that a Lot suspicion train grew out of nowhere in addition to the crucial part in the game we are at lend credence to the move against Lot being an aggressive, coordinated move by the wolves.

Thus, since all four of Lot, Samuel, Bathsheba, and Jacob voted for Deborah, they could hardly be considered Deborah's teammates. In addition:
1) Lot has, in addition to Absalom and Balaam, contributed by far the most to this game, analyzing voting records, and has been instrumental in lynching wolves, despite a few missteps along the way.
2) Samuel's responses to recent suspicion struck me as 100% genuine and I have no reason to believe that he was a wolf playing the "I don't know" card.
3) Bathsheba 2.0 seems reasonable. I wasn't really sure about him one way or the other, but a wolf would not have cast a crucial vote for Deborah, so while he is the one I questioned the most going into this lynch, it's foolish to let tinfoiling create heat in his direction.
4) Jacob's votes have been crucial in lynching wolves as well, again despite some missteps, and there is also the nature of his role claim and his recent town-like contributions.

If any of those four are wolves, I'd bet it's Jacob, but I really, really don't think that is the case. I'm confident that we can trust the four of them, for the time being, largely due to this most recent lynch, but for a couple of other reasons as specified above, as well as the process of elimination, since there are only two wolves remaining and half of the players remaining have worse voting records than these players. If we lynch Pilate, Rebecca, and Rahab and the game isn't over, then we should reevaluate. Of course, that's my opinion.

Does that answer your question, Esther?

Jacob wrote:Oh, and there's a poll for the deadie competition! Gonna root for Absalom.

I, too, will be rooting for Absalom.

Wow, I just can't get over how important that lynch was. It singlehandedly probably determined the winning faction of this game.

I have to go. Stephen OUT!

Also, I want to stress this. From here on out, we need to discuss as a group, and we need to try to vote as a united front as much as possible, only after discussing as much as we can. NO MORE THROW OFF VOTES. It could cost the civilians the game.

In fact, mulling over it, Rebecca, Pilate, and Rahab will almost certainly carry at least one wolf, if not both. I just cannot see a scenario in which a wolf voted to bus Deborah in that lynch. I'm curious what others are thinking though, since I don't hold all of the answers.

With 11 players, that means we are at 9 v 2 right now, assuming there are no Horsemen alive. If there are Horsemen, then it could be like 8 v 2 v 1 or even 7 v 2 v 2, but the Horsemen are an enigma, so for simplicity let's not worry about them for now. I don't think anyone should concern themselves with them.

The civilians can and will win this game, especially with the Joshua role still in play. In theory, if we lynch a wolf during Chapter IV, then we will be at 9 v 1 (discounting Horsemen complications) at Chapter V, again with no Night, thanks to Joshua. In the luckiest scenario, we can end the game at Chapter V, with no more death at Night. But in order to best achieve this scenario, we need everyone in here talking, and we need the town giving it their best effort.

I look forward to Lot's contributions to the Chapter IV lynch, as well as everyone else.

Considering Judas has used a kill, Judas must be a wolf. Therefore, assuming Pilate is Judas, Pilate is not on the side of righteousness. His push against Lot during Chapter III was incredibly illuminating.

The wolves attempted to pull a power play and it would have worked, actually, if Lot hadn't survived and the Joshua role was gone. But with both of those in the civilians' favor, it seems the tide is turning.

I feel most confident about Pilate and Rebecca, but I'm probably leaning a bit more for voting Rebecca, since her behavior was scummy to the MAX.

I'm almost certain we'll find the wolves and in this order:
1. Rebecca
2. Pilate
3. Rahab
4. Esther
5. Malchus

Since there are two wolves, hopefully it won't take more than through #3 to end this game.

Ignore me. It seems we are now in a new Day. That means... Absalom was NOT Joshua and that Joshua must still be alive! Brilliant.

If I do die tonight, I can 99% vouch for Lot and Samuel at this point. Also feeling very good about Bathsheba and Jacob. Town needs to stick together and really put in 100% to win this game. It is now possible, with Lot's survival.

It would be very silly for the wolves to eat me tonight though, lest they want to completely ruin their potential conquest.

My guess is that Pilate is Judas. Call it a gut thing. If you think about Pilate's behavior all game, it seems most likely to me explained by civilian who can betray at some point type of play.

And technically there are still two more wolves to get, when you consider that Judas has betrayed the civilians.

Bathsheba, considering the post said "one belonging to a Philistine", I assumed that means he was Goliath the Philistine.

With all of that said, I'm intrigued about what the Night may bring, and am still going to keep an open mind. It is still possible Lot is a wolf, but I would believe almost every other player in the game is more likely a wolf than he is at this point.

Thanks for replying, Esther, I understand that. It just seemed weird that you would throw off since your vote literally had no impact on the lynch.

So... somewhere in Pilate, Rebecca, Esther, and Rahab are likely our wolves. I highly doubt a Deborah voter is a wolf after that display. It is possible that some teammates tried to push Lot today (for no good reason) and that one or two teammates threw off. This lynch makes me feel a whole heck of a lot better about Bathsheba to be honest.

Frankly, I think Rahab's throw-off looks worse than Esther's, but I think Pilate and Rebecca look TERRIBLE after this lynch, so I'd rather vote them in the future. Neither of them should make it to endgame in ANY scenario, regardless of what they say.

Fantastic result! BIH Deborah. I can't believe she was bad after all, with her constant "I'm catching up and still playing, I swear!" posts. Wow.

I don't understand. If you think Lot is good why didn't you save him? Your vote is worthless.

Esther and Malchus are the only ones who haven't voted.

Here's hoping Esther makes the right move or we will lose the only civilian who has been consistently putting 100% into this game, myself included.

Rebecca wrote:Plus, a huge amount of "Oh yeah, I just reread that player you mentioned and he/she defo seems bad!" just went on in response to Lot's "Hey, I think you guys should look here!".

That's my uninformed after not being active in this game analysis.

WOLF ALERT

WTF? What is going on???

I can't believe anyone actually thinks Lot is a wolf.

If anyone doubts it, try reading Deborah's posts ISO.

Lot wrote:I literally can't believe people are actually considering I could be bad. My role ought to be incredibly obvious by this point.

Absolutely not surprised Absalom is dead.

Deborah is the way I would choose to vote if I could. Really, she voted Isaac because she 'trusts pilate'? I'm absolutely certain Pilate is making a power play, there is no way in hell that he genuinely believes me to be bad. I don't believe it's war, because he didn't vote for me yesterday and he declared himself to be voting me during the night (he only would have found out at dawn if he was required to vote me).

I suggest you listen very hard to Stephen, who knows where its at.

Voting Lazarus.

Exactly.

I'm voting Deborah. I think others should as well.

What a shame. RIP Absalom and Jonah.

This obviously is designed as a way to set up Samuel to look worse, killing his biggest accuser. Terrible idea. I don't buy it. Samuel is not bad.

However, I'm not really sure where to go from here. There are a lot of names which all could be wolves and they've hardly contributed to this game, Deborah, Malchus, Pilate, for example. I'm just not fully into the zone here, but nonetheless I don't believe we can catch a baddie solely on voting records, so I think we need to try to encourage discussion as much as possible today. I know I've been a fail lately on that front myself, but I have been trying to be vocal in my opinions.

Now look at Pilate's post and vote. Is this a power play by the remaining mafia or War or what the sodding hell is going on?

I will say that Esther's posts recently have been pinging me, can we talk about her?

Be back later!

It's because Samuel isn't bad.

I am voting Deborah.

I'm not going to let a fear of the unknown interfere. Ruth is bad, so I am voting Ruth.

I don't know, guys, Belshazzar seems legit to me.

I'm starting to think that perhaps we've been played by Isaac, that the case against him being a Heathen was well-constructed, but his self-vote ploy was a nefarious one, rather than a genuine one, as I was inclined to believe.

It also makes D9 make way more sense, if Isaac and Mordecai are teammates.

So... I'm voting Isaac.

I still think Isaac seems genuine, despite his poor play, so I'm voting Mordecai.

I also think we should start entertaining possible lynches of players that were or are absentee, lest we reach endgame after a few more mislynches and those players have not been disposed of.

Stephen is back, baby!

Sorry for not being around much these past few cycles, I can't explain it using anything such as house explosions this time 'round, really just a case of busy RL.

I don't have much time at the moment, but I will admit I am shocked at Jonathan's reveal. Given his inability to even state any suspicions, I just couldn't believe he was town.

I have the following observations:
- I agree with Belshazzar that the plan on Day 6 backfired and that there was no attempt to bus Ruth.
- I trust (well, as much as one CAN trust in a game like this) the following players at the moment: Absalom, Belshazzar, Lot, and Isaac. Balaam probably, but I'm not entirely sure.

I agree completely with Absalom. I still think Jonathan is bad. No idea why we lynched Jep yesterday.

votes Jonathan

I agree with Absalom's thoughts on Jonathan. I'm voting there!

Ahhh typos! I meant "it" not r and I meant contemplating NOT voting for her.

Sorry, I'm on phone briefly and voted earlier because I didn't think I would be able to sneak back on here.

The more I think about everyone's behavior, the more I feel confident in my vote for Ruth.

While I realize there are a few good possibilities for an Uzziah teammate based on voting history, I find r odd that some contemplating a Ruth vote due to her D5 vote.

Did anyone here actually think Uzziah was not a potential hot potato from the get go?

Does that not make it increasingly risky for a teammate to defend him as the game progresses?

If anything, Ruth's D5 vote sealed the deal for me. I will be shocked if she is not his teammate.

We got a wolf! Woo!

Absalom beat me to it! Ruth clearly looks the worst out of anyone and I find it odd no one is going after her more. She has done absolutely no baddie hunting this game and the quote pulled where she said "I don't see the case on Mary..."

and then turns RIGHT AROUND and votes Mary 11 minutes later is the clincher for me. Her voting record stinks and she's definitely a wolf teammate.

Ruth

Fuck it, I'm voting Uzziah.

I no longer think a Jeph vote is a good idea. He is reading genuine to me.

Ruth wrote:

Stephen wrote:Stephen is here!

I'm going to trust my gut and declare that Balaam and Absalom are likely town because they are reading genuine to me. I also think the wolves have avoided attention for the most part, instead piling on a couple of major candidates each day (as Balaam pointed out).

What do players think of Ruth? Apparently I missed her when I left the thread the other day, and she asked me what I wanted to discuss like as if I hadn't said it. Paul had mentioned that MANY people declared an intention to vote for Ruth early on due to her trying to figure out everyone's identities, but then no one did, and NO ONE is talking about her. At all.

What's the deal? I don't even have reason to find her particularly suspicious, but her game is the epitome of flying just low enough to avoid major attention but not flying TOO low to seem as if she's not contributing.

What do you want to discuss with me? I recall a few people saying I was suspicious because I was curious about how obvious Paul was being, but I don't recall MANY saying they WERE going to vote for me. I think you're exagerrating just a wee bit there, hrm?

A lot of people are not being talked about, and quite a few are flying lower than I. Does it upset you that *I* am not being talked about because Paul wanted to talk about me? You keep wanting to talk about me, but all you have to say about me is that Paul thought I was suspicious, and that people should be talking about me more.

Start the conversation. Let's talk about me; I'm a fun topic

Jephthah wrote:And Lot, do I need to quote your flip floppiness where you start by thinking I'm bad and choose me as your top suspect, continue with saying you completely changed your mind, only to come back and accuse me again?
I thought changing your mind is not allowed. It's a baddie tell.


And now I'm really out.

Since when is changing your mind always bad? As things change, new evidence comes to light, perhaps colored by night results as well. Or if someone puts up a good defense. Lots of valid reasons for mind changing. I get your point, flopping like a fish is not the same as just mind changing. Do you really think he's bad, or is this a No U sort of thing?

And wow, the WIFOM in Uzziahs post.

I want to discuss with you because you seem to be executing a PERFECT game in between flying low but not TOO low, and I'm not sure whether it's genuine or on purpose, so I'm trying to figure it out.

I didn't think I was exaggerating, so I took a look back and noticed there was some buzz around you, but not as much as I remember, I suppose. Nonetheless:

Cain wrote:

Ruth wrote:So what do you call them?

I do not like how you are trying to figure out who everyone is. Defeats the whole purpose of a sock game. Pray stop it or you will earn my vote day 1.

Lot wrote:

Cain wrote:

Ruth wrote:So what do you call them?

I do not like how you are trying to figure out who everyone is. Defeats the whole purpose of a sock game. Pray stop it or you will earn my vote day 1.

I completely agree, in a game where it has been commanded that identities are not to be shared, even in btsc. At least, I don't mind people trying to figure out who others are... I dare say there will be a lot of that going on. But it bothers me that someone would try to get others to outwardly incriminate themselves in the thread.

Job wrote:

Cain wrote:

Ruth wrote:So what do you call them?

I do not like how you are trying to figure out who everyone is. Defeats the whole purpose of a sock game. Pray stop it or you will earn my vote day 1.

This

I am starting the conversation over and over; it's called "Does anyone find Ruth suspicious or not?" and the fact that NO ONE is answering me makes me increasingly wondering what is going on.

I know there are others flying lower than you and going largely undiscussed, but you have been discussed less than most other players in the game right now.

Oops I messed that up by quoting the same post twice

That first quote after the "Only after these posts" should be:

Jephthah wrote:If there's anyone who hasn't voted yet, how about we vote Samuel?

Then there's stuff like this:

Jephthah wrote:Balaam, thanks for answering regarding Lazarus. Do you not see a possibility of explaining what he's doing?

Rachel, I get why you feel Job was rude, but I also think maybe he's frustrated. Doesn't excuse being rude, but we've all done things we wish we hadn't out of frustration.
I'm sorry, I can't bring myself to vote for Job. He seems genuine in his frustration. That said, I also feel good about you. I hope this is a civvie vs. civvie thing.

Not sure what to think of Balaam. Mostly, he's one of the most productive players in terms of talking about others, bringing up theories and questioning everyone. But this is what I really expect from a good baddie. A good baddie is never easy to find, so I realize I might be fooled by him. That said, I'm not at a point where I'm remotely ready to vote for him. He's too important to the civvies if he is one.

I'm pretty sure there has to be a moderate to high poster among the baddies. They can't all be low posters lurking in the shadows. I'd love to take out that baddie. Question is, who is it.

The most vocal people, at least the way I view the thread, are Ballam, Balshazar, Rachel and Absalom. None of them look baddie to me at the moment, but I could be wrong.

I don't want to lynch another civvie. I don't know who to vote for

And he ends up voting Balaam anyway:

Jephthah wrote:I don't believe I'm doing it, but I think I'm voting Balaam. I am so freaking pinged by Samuel's vote

Only after these posts:

Jephthah wrote:I don't believe I'm doing it, but I think I'm voting Balaam. I am so freaking pinged by Samuel's vote

Jephthah wrote:I'm almost tempted to think Samuel voted with that awful reasoning in an attempt to save Balaam. If he was so suspicious of Absalom, why not vote for him? Job only had 4 votes and Balaam 3 when Samuel voted. And notice how Balaam never talks about Samuel

If you go back and look at his posts, his defenses of Job and other players throughout the game are strange.. he never really explains why Job "isn't bad" and seems to indicate knowledge outside of the thread that Job is NOT bad and is having a hard time covering it.