The Syndicate

dunya wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 2:00 pm First and last time I play a draft game thanks to Epi.

Well if it serves for consolation, nobody believes in this stuff except a handful of people, even until this point.

So the thing here is that Nutella picked a bunch of people everyone would pick, and one guy nobody would (Iron Dwarf).

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:51 pm The exercise's insight may have been specific to dunya. Epignosis and I were also oft-named, but entering the game that wasn't likely to surprise anyone. dunya though, despite having performed very well in her earliest games on this site, hasn't had enough time to generate much play-based reputation -- and she was still named more than either of us (or anyone else). I probably should have cared more, but yanno. Everything seems clear when the answers are revealed.

It could also be useful for civ reads. Specifically, the 50% least named players in the exercise consist of 11 civs and 1 baddie.

The baddies in the list are in positions 1, 7, 10, 11 and 20 (tied last place).

In other words, someone who doesnt get drafted by any civs is very unlikely to be drafted by the Don themselves.

I think the idea of something like this is that you shouldn't use it as a precise metrics for civ/bad chance, but rather look for outliers. People with an extremely high or extremely low number of picks have a chance of being civ/bad that may surpass statistical error.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:29 pm @dunya @Kylemii @Quin @Dragon D. Luffy @JaggedJimmyJay

Secrets!

I don't FE so I don't know the chars you're referring too.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:20 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:04 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm
Spoiler: show

dunya
JJJ
Epi
Mac
rdw

nutella
JJJ
Mac
dunya
Any rym

lapluie
MM

Quin
DDL
dunya
Epi
LC OR rabbit

Iron Dwarf
dunya
rdw
JJJ
Mac

Conclusion: mafia wwill avoid citing their teammates, or they will cite one high-profile teammate and ignore the rest.
I thought that exercise was silly to begin with because the mafia would lie and the only real answer you needed was the answer from the mafia don. Then again, Dunya.

I think the point is to get an average poll of the average Syndicateer's team picks. If there is a trend, the exercise will catch it. nutella is an individual, but an individual could follow trends.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm
Spoiler: show

dunya
JJJ
Epi
Mac
rdw

nutella
JJJ
Mac
dunya
Any rym

lapluie
MM

Quin
DDL
dunya
Epi
LC OR rabbit

Iron Dwarf
dunya
rdw
JJJ
Mac

Conclusion: mafia wwill avoid citing their teammates, or they will cite one high-profile teammate and ignore the rest.

Civ Golden is a long missed treasure in this site.

Also all the plans involving perfectly predicted night actions.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:11 pm Here are all the mafia team abilities:

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:27 am Your promotion roles and backstory safeclaims.

Iron_Dwarf/Thumb - Great Knight (now mounted, now able to use swords, axes or lances)
Firm Rescue - Each night, you can push yourself in front of another player, misdirecting anyone who targets that player into targeting you instead.
Tough - You have two lives.
An Honorable Veteran - You cop as town/Allyia and track as having targeted the player of your choice. (PM me each night.)
Experienced - You cannot be misdirected. This includes busdrives, forces, pushes, etc.
Fakeclaim - Count on Me - A long time member of the Allyia army, you are known by all to be an example of selflessness and professionalism. If you target a townie with the same nationality as yours and nobody targets them with an offensive or investigative action, you will automatically fail.

Lapluie/Pointer - Rogue (still on foot, still swords only)
Sneaking and Stealing - Each night, you may target a player to learn their nationality and steal their vote.
A Rising Star - Instead of using your night power, you may kidnap a player. For the next two nights, that player is untargetable but NOT silenced. Anyone attempting to target your victim will be caught in a trap and lose their vote the next day. If anyone targets you with an offensive action during the next two nights, your victim will be freed. (There will be no clues that the player targeting you is responsible.) If your captive is not freed by the end of the second night (third, counting the night you kidnap them), you will kill them. This does not count as the mafia kill and does not require you to give up your night action or target your victim a second time. You may only have one captive at a time.
Silent - When making the mafia kill, trackers will fail to target you and each player targeting your target other than you will have a 50% chance to fail their night action.
Fakeclaim - Defector - You are a reluctant member of the Badguyia army but have decided to defect to the town. You have secret knowledge. The Badguyia army is made up of players chosen by the mafia. Their night actions are under mafia control except for the vigilante. They will flip bad regardless of their actual alignment. You start as part of the Badguyia army but you can choose your own night action.

Quin/MIddle - Swordmaster (still on foot, still swords only)
Threaten With Death - Each night, you may misdirect another player into the player of your choice.
Crits for Days, Brah - You have a 45% chance of killing your target.
A Mad Dog - When making the nightkill, you have a 50% chance to roleblock your target and anyone targeting you. The chance to roleblock each player is determined separately.
Wounding Strike - During the day, you may target another player to add one to their vote total for the rest of the game as if an additional player was voting for them. Each time this player ends the day without voting or without anyone voting for the same player they are and every time this player survives or prevents a nightkill by any means, they gain another permanent vote. You may not use this power again until the wounded player is dead.
Fake claim - Challenger - You are obsessed with becoming the greatest warrior in the world and will not back down from a fight no matter the cost. Instead of randomly misdirecting, you are a magnet, causing your target to target you. Your chance to nightkill is increased by 15%.

Dunya/Ring - Assassin (still on foot, still swords only)
Stealing Lives - At night, you may target a player to steal their vote.
Silence - You have a 30% chance of killing your target.
A Tragic Loyalist - If you are lynched, all townies will be roleblocked the following night.
Managing The Army - Each day phase, you may recruit someone from the player list (not Roy's army) into the Badguyia army up to a maximum of five players. Secretly, you pick their night target from now on. Publicly, they will appear as a reluctant recruit in the writeup, will flip bad if lynched and will show as part of the Badguyia army on the front page. If you use this on a teammate, their safeclaim character will be recruited in the writeup. Players may leave the Badguyia army through the night poll. If your recruit has a nightkill, you may not choose their action for them. If they have a chance to nightkill and succeed, they will target the player of their choice instead of the one you used.
Fakeclaim - Allyian Spy - Though you appear to be a mere thief, you’re actually a spy working for lord Sloonei. If you target an Allyian player, you will watch them instead of copping them or stealing their vote.

Nutella - Wyvern Knight (still flying, still lances only)
Threaten With Death - Each night, you may misdirect another player into the player of your choice.
Slayer - You have a 30% chance of killing your target.
A Mysterious Evil - You are immune to nightkill. You may not make a nightkill unless you are the last member of the mafia.
Pulling Strings - Each day you may preemptively busdrive two players. During the following night, all players targeting one of those players will target the other instead. The mafia may not nightkill either of these players.
Fakeclaim - Mercenary Sister - Though your sisters Elsie and Bunny disapprove, your tomboyish nature caused you to go off and join a mercenary company. You may not cast the first vote against another player. Once per game, you may steal another player's vote in addition to your normal night action.

So yeah, not only did I actually choose my redirect's target every night, I also had a busdrive (though since it was due at EOD I forgot to use it a bunch of times lol >_> I remembered it for a majority of the days though)

Hey guys I have a plan. Assuming mafia can't mess with it using abilities, all we gotta do is tie this lynch and scum will surely go down!

Well I, for one, am happy that we managed to make a civ advantage out of one of the worst starts I've seen in a game.

It's not every year we see a mafia game with two huge comebacks (one from civs, and another from baddies).

It's a testament to the skill and effort of both sides, imo.

Also interesting how all of the new mods happened to be the scum MVPs of this game.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:26 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:21 pm Jay, I believe in your thesis tbh. But we should stop giving people easy civ reads whenever they blow a thread. If it happens once a year, that's one game a year that civs are handing to baddies on a plate. It's too much.
I am sure I will be more vigilant moving forward, even if I am not truly sure I should be. It's a double-edged sword, because greater vigilance can often lead to greater paranoia, and then real civilians are wasting their time fielding stupid suspicions (or worse yet being lynched over them). Indeed that happens much more often than this happens, and I think it causes more civilian losses.

Nonetheless, I doubt I will maintain a perfectly Vulcan mindset. Getting one's ass kicked has an effect for better or for worse.

Greater paranoia should always be accompained with greater reason.

My scumdar is mediocre at best. Look at this game, all of my reads were wrong. But people are praising me because I made effort and theorized the fuck out of player interactions. As long as I add 2 parts of Occam's Razor for each part of paranoia I put in my posts, I have a shot at winning.

Paranoia: dunya may be bad.
Reason: would she do this and that post if she were truly bad?

Etc

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:26 pm remember when everyone lynched me for lying about about not targeting on night 4?

i was telling the truth

I don't lie, it's easier that way.

I didn't lynch you for a lie, I lynched you for that truth.

Holy shit man, your role "known for his constant crits" as a description. What kind of civ doesn't read that and go "FUCK YEAH". I was orgasming about it all game (though in my case I had protection from roleblock and conditional bulletproof so I wanted to turn into a murder machine")

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:25 pm hey, I'm sad this is coming from you who was praising my civ abilities earlier. I'm a great civilian; don't make the mistake of mislynching me and losing me.

That doesn't mean I will lynch you all the time.

But this does mean I will think ten times before putting you on a civ pile.

Jay, I believe in your thesis tbh. But we should stop giving people easy civ reads whenever they blow a thread. If it happens once a year, that's one game a year that civs are handing to baddies on a plate. It's too much.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:13 pm congrats mafia!

sorry for your loss town!

sorry for leaving the game, guys. I really didn't want to but Jack and I decided it was for the best because I knew something I shouldn't have known.

Thanks for stepping up speedchuck!

fwiw, we decided to kill rabbit n1 because we were terrified speedchuck would replace him and we didn't want a townie speed against us. No one sniffed that, huh?

Oh? I thought it was burn out from all the people accusing you for overposting.

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:57 pm Epi’s Test was correct

Also “hey guys, speedchuck has been alive for awhile” and “there’s no way you could’ve lynched I_D without stealing my vote”

Smh

Statistics is a science for a reason.

His test was correct, but we directed our ire at Jay when we should have lynched dunya.

Good work, scum. Speed and Nutella, you two played a superb game. Speed for coming in to replace a supatown and still managing to look supatown all over again. Nutella for the evil bussing string. Good job.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:48 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:54 pm @JaggedJimmyJay

Your thesis has been disproven.
It still hardly ever happens. I am unlikely to overhaul my perspective of the game of Mafia as a result of an outlier. I am already annoyed in advance at the tinfoil mislynches which will follow from this performance in future games. They're coming.

They should come. dunya belongs in the Epignosis pantheon of the "NEVER READ AS CIV" people.

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

Your thesis has been disproven.

Alternatively we can have a Best Gif award.

I nominate this gif for Best Quote on Sockys 2018.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:33 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:27 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:23 pm I've only played 1 and 2 though. Don't remember getting to be Mia so maybe I'm missing out on her big moment.
What... is wrong with you.

Yeah play AA3. Actually play all six games, but if you have to stop at a point, at least finish 3. It's completes a full story arc, it's the best game in the series, and it has two cases where you play as Mia and they are both great. It also features the best prosecutor and what is probably the best villain (though Gant/Von Karma say hi).
I found the last two cases in AA2 to be really annoying. Big Top is just bad and while case 4 was probably pretty good, I played it over such a long period of time and the case log/evidence was so badly labeled, I couldn't solve the case. Kept having to check walkthroughs, which would point out reasons why certain statements were lies but I had long forgotten those plot points and it wasn't in the evidence so there was no way to solve the case without starting over or cheating. Left a bad taste in my mouth.

But I enjoyed all of AA1 and the first half of AA2 and I'm sure the case of the suicidal or not guitar ninjas would have been better if I had done it quicker. I hear AA3 is suppose to be really good. I just haven't gotten around to playing it.

Weird. The last case of AA2 has to be my favorite one of all time. Though I have some weird opinions myself.

Sorry if I'm being a jerk btw, I know you have work and family and all. But yeah get around to play it whenever you can.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:23 pm I've only played 1 and 2 though. Don't remember getting to be Mia so maybe I'm missing out on her big moment.

What... is wrong with you.

Yeah play AA3. Actually play all six games, but if you have to stop at a point, at least finish 3. It's completes a full story arc, it's the best game in the series, and it has two cases where you play as Mia and they are both great. It also features the best prosecutor and what is probably the best villain (though Gant/Von Karma say hi).

Best song/version:

Ok I need to stop fanboying there's a mafia game going on I guess.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:56 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:22 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:45 pm
sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:40 pm also i was super excited to get to use the phoenix wright gifs
Clue found: a salt shaker in a box next to a circus tent.
- Insert incovenient comment from Maya Fey which turns to be relevant in the final trial day.
I absolutely hate all the Feys except Maya. They are all irrelevant to or else undermine the plot and it makes me uncomfortable when Mia merges with Pearl.

You have a weird taste.

Mia is awesome.

That cases where you play as her... damn.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:45 pm
sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:40 pm also i was super excited to get to use the phoenix wright gifs
Clue found: a salt shaker in a box next to a circus tent.

- Insert incovenient comment from Maya Fey which turns to be relevant in the final trial day.

Thanks for the game, Jack! It was a really great one.

Make this comeback happen, town.

rundontwalk wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:43 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:05 pm The problem about having a gut read that Sig is bad is that this is as natural as breathing.
Explain?

If you made a museum fo mislynches in this site the main attraction would be big portrait of Sig screaming "I'm a civ!"

The problem about having a gut read that Sig is bad is that this is as natural as breathing.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:03 pm
sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:57 pm Dragon D. Luffy

DO YOU UNDERSTAND MY GUT NOW?
I don't get the reference.

Oh nvm I see your post about Sig.

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:57 pm Dragon D. Luffy

DO YOU UNDERSTAND MY GUT NOW?

I don't get the reference.

he thinks lap is good*

I just listed every post that looked pingy. Confirmation bias applies a lot here. Don't take it for granted that Sig is bad.

His MO seems to have been defend lap and throw Quin under the bus. More believable for a baddie than just defend everyone, I give you that Speedchuck. Saying out loud he thinks lap is bad is safer than showing up at the last second to save her. Now that lap flipped bad, Sig can say he was staying true to himself.

The case here isn't that he has done anything terrible, but more like he hasn't done anything great.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:09 pm
gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:28 pm I think Marmot is scum and he is my preferred lynch.

I could go for this as well

Also I want us to think about Jay's death some more, the mafia had the most to gain through lynching him and I seem to recall MAc and Epi pushing his lynch.

Mac is imo seen as one of the best scum players as is Epi why wouldn't they be picked?

If someone who's been around the block before had anything to do with the mafia pick Mac would be high up he won the GoC in 2015 (?) as well as many other games as mafia. He's also seems to be leading us on a path of destruction.

IF we don't get results soon I suggest looking back over Epi, Nutella, and Mac. I wouldn't be surprised if we had one mafia within that group.

Lists every Jay voter and says one of them is likely bad. ZZZZ

sig wrote: ↑Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:39 pm
Iron_Dwarf wrote: ↑Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:58 am
lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:52 pm Omg nooooooo another double kill
EVERYBODY FOCUS we got to kill atleast 1 fricken mafia

Why WILGY?
Is it because he just being wilgy, cus I think we should go for epi
You basically came in here to drop a vote and that's it.
That's how Lap plays, I should know I vigged her last game for thinking she was scum.

The case on Wilgy is basically he went after dunya and parroted how he plays as a civ according to JJJ. I also dislike how he's flying under the radar and being less zany than he normally is.

Lap defense.

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:36 pm I think we could've seen a Quin save last night and wouldn't be opposed to voting for him today.

Waffly language. Specially since he was part of the save.

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:00 pm I'm highly doubtful lap is mafia and I'd rather we not lybch her.

More lap defense.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:58 pm I'd rather lynch Kenway than Quin.

Voting Quin but hey how about kenway?

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:23 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:18 pm Nah as much as I hate RDW right now lapluie looks worse.

Fuck with cops not giving results. This is grounds for policy lynch in most places.

[VOTE: lapluie] aubergine
I don't like this at all. I think out of Lap vs RDW, rdw is mafia.

I agree with RDW here. The word usage here is weird. Why saying he is mafia "out of the two"? Does it mean they are both mafia but RDW is the worse?

sig wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:17 pm These night results are interesting.

sig wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:52 pm Lap isn't a high poster, however after playing a few games with her I'm reading her as civ. I also really dislike the cfd onto her. I think it was an attempt to save bob who should be lynched post haste tomorrow.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:58 pm
lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:11 am I like mac's posts, he sounds really genuine here compared to the other game he was just mafia in
That's interesting lapluie is there anything more specific to this or is it all tone?

linki: Why is nobody paying attention to me.

sig wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:33 pm I see the point in Epi's exercise, but I don't think Collins not doing it is necessarily scummy, like maybe it's a good day 1 vote, but he's being active so I don't know.

I like that White is arguing with Jay, but if I'm being honest I've just kind off skimmed the argument.

RDW seems to have stopped posting as much as before, I think Mac was scum reading him? What happened with that (Or was that a read on Kyle)

sig wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:00 pm Epi and Collins is civ on civ

One of the supertown people is mafia no doubt

the other mafia are lurking

Rabbit's gone AWALL which is weird.

For my shots I'm tempting to start trimming off no posters thoughts?

This post is disgusting.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:55 pm Epi trusts me since I'm awesome. OR a lot of other reasons.

1. He knows mafia wouldn't pick me
2. He's mafia and we're not on the same team
3. He assumes any mafia worth their salt wouldn't pick someone who always gets lynched. (Which is dumb since I'm an amazing scum I build bandwagons and make the civs pay for them!)
4. YOLO
5. I came in very civvie
6. Ask him.
7. Since I'm amazing.

linki: Dunya my dearest are you mafia?

sig wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:55 pm 1. He knows mafia wouldn't pick me

[mention]sig[/mention]

Who have you tried to kill so far?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:08 pm Dragon D. Luffy You know Occam's Razor? That nifty tool that says the correct solution to a problem is the one that makes the fewest assumptions? We can look at that with RDW.

For RDW to be town, we have to assume that he doesn't know who scum is and has made poor (uninformed) decisions.
For RDW to be scum, we have to assume that he's been trying to save his teammates, that nobody on the team BTSC has been able to sway him into bussing, that he has no concept of bussing to begin with, etc.

RDW's vote tracking has been awful. Townies are known to do that. I actually don't know scum to do that, assuming they have a decent grasp of the game, and assuming that they have access to BTSC.

RDW has hit me with town tone all game, and the abysmal vote tracking isn't really a point against him IMO.

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:53 pm He would have no problem throwing any of his teammates under the bus if it looked like a good opportunity for him. I dunno if voting works differently where you’ve played most, but on RYM, a lot of players would vote specifically to get a reaction out of someone. Rdw is an instigator. It’s not that he doesn’t see the logic of things, it’s more that he plays by getting reactions out of other players. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.
His meta also points to what I'm seeing.

I get your case, I understand why it looks strong, but this is why I'm not going to follow you on it.

Point taken.

What do you think of Sig?

Sig's votes

Day 1: starts a rabbit8 wagon in the middle of the day. No change.
Day 2: votes Kenway. Then Marmot immediately after. Stays on Marmot the rest of the day.
Day 3: shows up in the last minute to throw a vote on LC, and ignores the other wagons.
Day 4: early Wilgy adopter. Revotes WIlgy for some reason later. Leaves.
Day 5: 4th vote on Quin. Bussing?
Day 6: Middle RDW vote then vanishes.

Is it just me or did Jack actually have two baddies appear on Badguya in the OP?

For reference:

Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:53 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:58 pm
gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:57 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:37 pm
rundontwalk wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:35 pm I rectified my mistake by helping kill lap last round which you didn't do because you were obsessed with me
We'll see about that, I still have to look at Day 6's votes. For all I know you were saving yourself.
He would DEFINITELY do that as scum, for the record. Although I do feel pretty good about him now.
Does he usually bus people as scum? Early argument with him seemed to imply he wasn't aware of the concept of votes making people look bad.
He would have no problem throwing any of his teammates under the bus if it looked like a good opportunity for him. I dunno if voting works differently where you’ve played most, but on RYM, a lot of players would vote specifically to get a reaction out of someone. Rdw is an instigator. It’s not that he doesn’t see the logic of things, it’s more that he plays by getting reactions out of other players. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

At this point my stance on him is that his vote tracking is hopelessly bad and his alignment depends on whether I believe he has a meta that makes it expected for him to vote that way, or if I stay loyal to evidence.

I'm still waffling on the former but I don't intend to wage a one man war against him. If I can't convince you people, I'll vote elsewhere. I already acted too emotional yesterday for my own liking.

Day 6

Spoiler: show

DDL
RDW
Sprityo
Bob
Kites
ID
Epi
Speed
ID
DDL
Sprityo
Nutella
ID
Sig
RDW
Epi
Epi
RDW
DDL
DDL
RDW
DDL
Gwilkers6
Gwilkers6
Epi
Kylemii
lapluie

Key:

Red - lapluie
Green - RDW
Yellow - Nutella
Light Blue - ID
White - Others

Another scum flip means a very interesting day phase.

This day is really lacking on stray wagons. It was lapluie or RDW, with the occasional Nutella and ID pushed by Epi.

The RDW wagon starts with a whopping 6 votes, partly due to my long theory on why he is bad that wa sposted in the previous night. Then Epi brings the alternative. Good Epi. He tries to bring other alternatives to his first one, though. Bad Epi. But he comes through at the end. Good Epi.

The downside of the giant RDW voting is that everything he does can be classified as self-defense, so reading him is hard. He jumped on lap which is good, but he jumped away which is bad, then he jumped in again. If he is a civ this is understandable waffling, if he is bad it's easy bussing.

The upside is that if RDW dies, this day becomes a gold mine of information. Though I'm not about to lynch him just because of that (and the same can be said about the likes of ID and Bob).

Sprityo and Nutella keep looking good as early adopters of the lap lynch. Gwilkers and Kyle look good for pushing when it counted. Bussing always applies, though.

Hard to define what to do with RDW voters. I bet there is scum on his wagon regardless of whether he is civ or bad. I mean, 5 votes (excluding his self-vote). But contrary to his theories, not all 5 are scum. Most of them probably aren't.

And there is that stray Sig vote on RDW in the middle of the lap push. Yeah I'm ISOing this guy.

Hey RDW. Just so you know, I'm not mad at you, and I seriously don't want to make enemies with you. I just think you are bad based on some vote analysis. I hope we can be friends after this game.

Day 3

Spoiler: show

Mac
RDW
Kenway
Bob
LC
Sprityo
DDL
ID
Jay
Speed
Mac
Sprityo
Epi
Mac
Sprityo
ID
LC
Nutella
Kites
Quin
Marmot
RDW
Gwilkers6
lapluie
Jay
RDW
Marmot
Jay
Dr. Wilgy
Kylemii
Sig

Key:

Orange - Jay
Light Blue - ID
Green - Nutella
Purple - Sig
Yellow - RDW
Others - White

Not a very informative day. Not a single vote on Quin or lapluie. This might become more informative later if one of ID/RDW/Nutella/Sig flip bad, otherwise, meh.

Quin and lapluie try to lynch Nutella, which means she has hands down the best vote tracking in the game, or she is being bussed like hell. 3-headed oroboros indeed, Kyle.

I am pinged by Sig's useless as shit vote near the end though, and though my memory is not 100% trustworthy, I don't recall thinking well of Sig in any of these exercises. I'll look at him more closely after I'm done here.

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