The Syndicate

Another problem to consider when you figure out the numbers is Shang Tsung -- that player is probably copying Baraka's vote removal. The Wilgy switch leaves the game in dire straits, and I don't think there's much margin for error if any remaining. The game must go on.

I don't really know why a civilian would switch the lynch either. I can understand arguments that it shouldn't make Elohcin look worse, but I don't think it makes her look better either. It's nothing at best. I can guarantee that at least one independent didn't cause that.

I might move Mac to my orange pile, because:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:09 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:04 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:03 pm Speedchuck has buddied me so much I love him now. So Wilgy.

You'll note a particularly debilitating problem with that suggestion.

Then Marmot.

Fake.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:55 am Oi Jagged one. Tell me who you think is more likely to be bad out of everyone who voted for Elo.

MacDougall.

I’m not into lynching any of those people though.

Taste the rainbow.

Long Con

Kylemii
lapluie
speedchuck

Quin
Dave
DomDougall

novaselinenever
Made

Elohcin

I'd imagine there was some manner of lynch switch. Perhaps Elohcin is mafia and either she or a teammate triggered a secret ability. It's also possible Elohcin is a civilian and that's per personal secret ability. I'm not sure she was even around to be aware of her own imminent lynch though.

okay then

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:07 pm who are the men?

Aaron Eckhart and MacDougall.

(I don't know what's going on)

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:58 pmlike two men, sunbathing together on the beach, or something like that.

Exactly the analogy I had in mind.

I wish Catherine Zeta-Jones would play Mafia with us.

I would like y'all to critique my case on Made and/or express your reservations about reading him as a member of the Outworld faction.

k

Elohcin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:31 pm I think I am in a Lap, Mac, Nova vote kind of mood since Wilgy is off the poll. I'll submit this post and then look at the poll and decide. I don't want to spread votes thin, obviously.

P L A Y E R

S A L A D

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:23 pm tell me about Made

Let me tell you about Made.

He did answer this stuff, but those answers made me feel approximately nothing.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:03 pm Speedchuck has buddied me so much I love him now. So Wilgy.

You'll note a particularly debilitating problem with that suggestion.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:43 pm Yeah I had a kill but you fucks mislynched me in my sleep.

Who should be lynched in their sleep today?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:35 pm A Mac lynch seems pointless. What has he done or said since his return to the thread which should point in his direction? I thought there was at least a decent reason to avoid a Dom lynch (Marmot's willingness to call for his being shot by a vigilante), and that reason transfers seamlessly to Mac.

This entire time I thought there was a civilian role with a kill. Now I am not seeing it.

Unless I'm overlooking it presently, that argument no longer works for DomDougall or for Dave. A Mac lynch still strikes me as an arbitrary choice, but that specific defense is dissolved.

A Mac lynch seems pointless. What has he done or said since his return to the thread which should point in his direction? I thought there was at least a decent reason to avoid a Dom lynch (Marmot's willingness to call for his being shot by a vigilante), and that reason transfers seamlessly to Mac.

A novaselinenever lynch would be acceptable if not especially inspired. I have no reason to give him civilian credit. I have no reason to give Elohcin civilian credit either.

My preferred option remains Made.

Early in the game, Made was icky on Marmot for reasons I'd call unclear ("wuffliness" is cited but not expanded upon):


Then they had this fluffy cotton candy exchange:


Then Made left it alone (including his periodic *poof* from the game until Marmot countered my independent claim:


The only possible tinfoil is that Marmot and I are teammates. What?

I don't fault Made for initially perceiving Marmot's goofiness as looking like his typical civilian nonsense, because my first reaction was similar. It's troubling though that Made so easily progressed from his early game suspicion -- with a prolonged absence from the thread thereafter -- to this acceptance of Marmot after he claimed independent. Moreover, the notion that the only evil Marmot in this scenario would require an evil JJJ alongside him just looks like a fake read to me.

He hasn't revisited the matter of Marmot since, and I was starting to get louder in my anti-Marmot talk while Made was still here on Day 5. There were opportunities. There's also this:


The first one is extremely vague without names attached to each "bad things/good things" player he's talking about (presumably Simon and nutella, but which is which?). It's a mess of a sentence, and proceeding into the next post they combine to serve as a laborious defense of Simon. One must go through some kinds of mental gymnastics to arrive at the conclusion that for x reason a civilian Simon wouldn't defend himself as much as a mafia Simon. It's dubious.

[mention]Epignosis[/mention], votes don't appear to be changeable in the poll.

I hope that's not intentional.

I think I'll start the day with a Made vote.

I've just been murdered by university stuff, so I'm going to be quiet for a few days. I'll check in as much as I can.

General thoughts on Elohcin's handling of my Marmot case yesterday?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:28 pm is marmot wilgy's dad irl?

Marmot is everyone's dad at heart.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:11 pm3-week old gummy bears.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:11 pm3 week-old gummy bears.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:06 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:55 pm Wilgy, are you Civ?

Yes. 100%!

Were you born to pureblood civilian parents?

To be fair, I'd be scared if a dead guy returned as a zombie and then later again wearing another man's skin.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:31 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:19 am WAY better than my second ability. Actually, mine turned out very well. Welcome back, Mac! Shaaaame on you, Dom!

Mac, who should we vote for next?

Speedchuck.

No but really I see JOH and Speedchuck are unanimous town reads so I would appreciate a cliffnotes as to why so I can get out of this tunnel.

I think there's room for tinfoil. That's what it'd be though, especially in Jack's case -- tinfoil. If you state in clear terms why you're in the tunnel, then we can more easily decide whether it's warranted (and if it's not then try to pull you out).

The best look for both of them at present, as I see it, is coming around on my Marmot case last day phase after needing thorough convincing and going through with that lynch instead of a much easier Wilgy lynch. That credit is diminished some if Wilgy is also mafia. In Jack's case you can also consider the full breadth of his effort, his rage against Simon, and I also thought his enthusiasm at Kyle's resurrection looked authentic.

lapluie, meet DrWilgy. DrWilgy, meet lapluie.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:59 am @JaggedJimmyJay how do the numbers look now? are we still 2 away from game end? (assuming someone dies tonight)

If we consider Dave and Dom civilians for the worst-case scenario (an assumption I'd say is more evidence-based now than before), we proceed from this:

6 civilian votes (6-1+1), 4 mafia votes, 2 variable indy votes, and 2 phantom vote denials affecting any of the three factions.

To this:

6 civilian votes (6-1+1), 3 mafia votes, 2 variable indy votes, and 2 phantom vote denials affecting any of the three factions.

If one night kill of a civilian occurs, we're left at:

5 civilian votes (6-1+1), 3 mafia votes, 2 variable indy votes, and 1-2 phantom vote denials affecting any of the three factions.

Essentially, the game would remain in a pseudo-elimination phase. I don't think a mislynch would end the game because Dave and Dom are still living players, but the voting power would become extremely bleak. This all assumes my previous estimates were accurate. It'd really be unfortunate if either no-show is Liu Kang with the doublevote.

Marmot and Dom


He also offered up Dom on the vigilante platter. This time he didn't include the Simon comparison, for what that's worth. It'd have been redundant, since the Dave and Dom entries were adjacent in this post.

~~~

Conclusion: That's it. This says little to me. I might say Dom looks slightly better given that Marmot mentioned vig killing him at all, though it's less sparkly than Dave's.

Marmot and Dave


That's a bit juicy. He specifically endorsed the casing of his teammate Simon instead of Dave. In some future scenario where Simon and Dave are both lynched, this'd be a nice platform for Marmot to rest on for credit if Dave is a civilian. If they're both mafia though then that'd mean Marmot pointed rabbit from one teammate to the other. It's plausible; I don't know that it's the most likely thing.


Oh dear. Not only is Dave a good vigilante option, he's a better vig option than Simon.


He's Dave.

~~~

Conclusion: It looks to me like Dave is an unfortunate never-voting civilian. That invitation to vigilante kill him before Simon is hard to look past, even considering Marmot's love for WIFOM.

lapluie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:57 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:50 pm Hot take: DrWilgy being the counterwagon is worth zero civilian credit points.

figured

To ensure I'm clear: I mean that Wilgy himself doesn't look any better to me. I'll have to assess the voting behaviors separately. I'm not bothered by your vote though.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:50 pm I love JaggedJimmyJay!

Hot take: DrWilgy being the counterwagon is worth zero civilian credit points.

Or follow your nose.

[mention]Elohcin[/mention], what about DrWilgy do you find suspicious?

If Lynch All Liars was common practice, I wouldn't survive a single game.

I think we're headed in the right direction now.

Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:23 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:45 am I voted Wilgy.

Not super happy with the fact that JJJ suggested Wilgs, but knowing scum-aligned JJJ, I could see him suggesting the lynch of a couple of low posters with one being scum and one town. He's done it before.

This makes sense. I am going on that train because, as others have agreed, I think Jay's reasons for suspecting Marmot are nonsense. Jay, if you are civ and you really think marmot is bad, you need to come up with some better reasons by tomorrow if you want to convince me.

Disagreeing with case -- sure, okay

Critical thinking beyond case -- F-minus

I feel pretty much the same way about NVN, minus the WIFOM portion.

Wilgy could be mafia. I don't know that one could compile a really compelling case, but that's the nature of Wilgy playing the way he plays. He'll never be left out of a POE pool, but he'll also never look extremely suspicious. In this game the best I can offer on the Wilgy front is that his earliest suspicion of Sloonei looked fake, and he didn't do anything with how people responded to that so I can't award points for reactionary faking. His present handling of Jack could be called similar. I can understand tinfoiling on Jack right now, but I have no idea why Wilgy is suspicious of him. I had no idea why he suspected Sloonei.

There's also some WIFOM potential in pretending to suspect widely-town-read Sloonei throughout Day 1 and then immediately killing him on Night 1. Wilgy is a WIFOM monster after all.

It's a whatever case. I have no reason to give him civilian credit.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:34 am Look at the rest of Marmot's posts today. Multiple times JJJ has accused him of something, or brought up an argument, and Marmot stubbornly held to a certain interpretation of that argument. Even when JJJ told him it was wrong.

I don't think he's doing it because it's ideal scum play. That doesn't make any sense.

If all or even most scum play was "ideal", town would never win games. Instead of cramming the argument of imperfection into the dialogue, perhaps you should consider why a mafioso would behave that way. It really shouldn't be hard to think it up.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:58 pm Dunno. Is anyone questioning the people that were on the TSP wagon either? I'd have to go back. I firmly believe that if Marmot jumped on the TSP wagon, he'd have less suspicion on him than he does now. Or, you know, he could have just not posted.

Then what you're saying is that if Marmot jumped on the TSP wagon, he'd have zero suspicion on him right now. Where is the current Marmot suspicion that isn't specifically JJJ-sourced? It doesn't exist. The other two votes on him presently are an off-hand whatever vote from Quin, and a Kyle vote driven by Marmot's dialogue with me.

This alternate universe theory is also meaningless, because it demands that Marmot have a crystal ball in the 1-minute-left-of-EOD scenario wherein he must make a decision. If I switch votes and include myself in this mislynch, in two game cycles I will look better than I otherwise would have. What in the hell is that nonsense?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:58 pm Second part of the question is interesting, though. What's your game? Forget 'aligned with town or mafia'. Why should I trust that you are genuinely hunting right now?
Be vague if you have to.

I've tried to explain that in the clearest terms that I can with respect to the rules and spirit of this game. Refer to Kyle if you don't get it. He's the only one who has come close.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:45 pm ORANGE: Examining possibilities as they correspond to the marmot case. I don't need a conclusion, all I need is a course of action. Do you expect me to ignore some of the possibilities? Or did you expect me to just assume that you are exactly one role, and take things from there?
I feel like you're calling me fake because I'm not being an idiot. Surely that can't be right.
(If you recall, I did something similar to this post in Vocaroo. About Dunya. Someone, I think it was you, called me out there as well. I was town.)

I don't think you examined the possibilities adequately. I don't think you arrived at a conclusion that suits your examination. I don't think you behaved in accordance with your own conclusion. Thus, fake.

I don't know what you're talking about in Vocaroo. If I'm supposed to care that you were town in this incident though, should you also care that I was town in that game?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:45 pmRED: You clearly have no idea what I'm doing. I looked at the marmot case on its own merit, which I'll be getting to. And NO, I don't trust you. Why the heck should I? You're using weird language and sarcasm quotes to paint everything I did as bad.

"Weird language"

Okay?

I didn't say you should trust me. I don't give a shit who trusts me. I said that your "disagreement" was irrelevant to my suggestion that you are Marmot's teammate, and the fact that you jumped to that basic, discrediting bullshit instead of critically thinking about what I said was a bad look.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:45 pmCYAN: Your hunting doesn't usually suck, or so I thought. But I'll take some vindictive pleasure in making you puke anyway.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:49 pm Yeah. Marmot was definitely trying to avoid answer questions later, or calling attention to his vote. /s
The motive that you've presented makes no sense at all. Marmot's actions undercut his own very motive, in your proposed scenario. By doing what he did, Marmot DID call attention to himself, and DID open himself up to more questions.

Then why is nobody asking him those questions except for the guy who claimed independent?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:49 pmI already answered my own question in an earlier post, but I'm pretty sure you twisted it into 'pooh-pooh waffles'.

Then answer it again because I have no clue.

Since y'all don't seem to be paying close attention to the numbers, let me help you out:

14 players alive (12 in the poll plus Kyle and I)

4 mafia members likely alive

2 independents likely alive

(8 civilians vs. 4 mafia) and (1 and 1)

In the absence of vote manipulation, there are 4 mafia votes and 10 non-mafia votes. For the sake of preparedness for worst-case scenarios, consider both Dave and Dom as civilians who will never place votes. That leaves 4 mafia votes and 8 non-mafia votes. Then, if you are inclined toward paranoia regarding the two independents, you can perceive the unmanipulated voting power as 4 mafia votes, 6 civilian votes, and 2 variable votes.

Now factor in known manipulations. I believe these roles all can be alive, but they aren't necessarily:

Civilians:
Liu Kang - 2 votes
Jax - vote denial
Smoke - vote denial

Mafia:
Baraka - vote cancellation

Baraka definitely removes a civilian vote. Jax and Smoke disallow someone else from voting, possibly but not definitely mafia members. Liu Kang is a double-vote which appears foolproof, though it's canceled out by Baraka in terms of total voting power. If these roles are alive, the voting power looks like this:

8 civilian votes (8-1+1), 4 mafia votes, 2 variable indy votes, and 2 phantom vote denials affecting any of the three factions.

For the worst-case scenario, consider Dom and Dave civilians. The voting power becomes:

6 civilian votes (6-1+1), 4 mafia votes, 2 variable indy votes, and 2 phantom vote denials affecting any of the three factions.

If Dom and Dave are civilians, this would be a technical LyLo (though I don't think a mislynch would end the game, because even if those two are never voting they still exist in the numbers).

If Dom and/or Dave are not civilians, then the game should be one or two mislynches shy of LyLo, and the mafia voting power is diminished accordingly.

If anyone sees an error or omission in this assembly, lemme know.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:04 pm So you've got time to remark a whole bunch of nothingness on my post (literally, your first paragraphs say nothing that I didn't say), and then slander me with a completely unrelated accusation just because I disagree with you. Yeah, that sounds like genuine JJJ town hunting. /s

This is just awful. Let me tell you why it's awful in pretty colors.

Let me stop you right there. I told you I was in a classroom. That means that time is restricted. Period. To expect more than an offhand remark from someone who is in a classroom is ridiculous.

I told you I was musing, and then I indicated why the "nothing that you didn't say" was silly. You babbled over my potentially being in all three possible alignments and ended up with no actual conclusion except that I should be ignored (the opposite of what you actually did). Fake.

"Just because I disagree with you"



No fucking way, sir. First of all, you don't "disagree" with me. Your claim is that you don't trust me. You don't believe me. That is not a "disagreement". Second, you just pooh-poohed all over my Marmot case, tried to boogie-man me just like he did, and then voted for the counterwagon -- all while continuing to waffle around what I'm actually doing. That's teammate shit.

This is so insincere. It's so gross at face value. Looking at it is making me retch. I am dry-heaving. I would be puking everywhere again, but I still have no puke left after Mac's massive 75% yellow rainbow from the first day. You want to talk about baseless slander? There you go. You just exemplified it. Your desire is to discredit me, not to counter my arguments with sensible refutations. That's why you look like Marmot's teammate.