The Syndicate

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Where's the accusation? Do you admit that you might win with an anti-civilian role? I think you did!

You implied BWT and/or I are going to defeat you, and unless you're calling yourself a baddie that implies an accusation.

That's actually a great reason to go for 48 hours. I don't know how much time I'll even have to play this game tomorrow.

Also, you can't stick an accusation into OT text. That's relevant to the game.

I'm of the opinion that more time is always better than less for the civilian faction. If there's a reason we should go to 24 I'll hear y'all out.

Rico:

Do you intend on dealing with the phases any unique way on Christmas Day? This isn't to imply you should or shouldn't, just asking.

48 is always better than 24, especially with some of the people seldom active or catching up.

Good grief.

Dom wrote:What was your point?

I have a bad voting record. Epi has a bad voting record. We all have a bad voting record. There have been no mafia lynches and only one non-civilian lynch.

Dom wrote:Who has a good voting record?

That's my point.

Dom wrote:Why are you so aggressively unanalytical about your comments here?

I don't understand the question. Please rephrase.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Anyway Jay, just a parting thought as I go to bed.

Here is the case I posted against BWT on Night 4. He hasn't posted since then. What would you do in this situation?

Also how do you feel about BWT/DrWilgy?

Are you asking what I'd do in BWT's shoes or in your shoes? I'll assume the latter:

My suspicion of him probably would hold, though the timing of his disappearance would bear no relevance to that. The strength of my read would likely depend upon other reads and how he compares. I think BWT/Wilgy started the game nicely but that degraded progressively as time passed. I think he had a bad Day 4 particularly in the end as the tally between you and trice tightened. He's a suspect now and Wilgy hasn't done anything to change that yet.

Quin wrote:my response to this game rn

Why am I watching this whole thing

I'll leave this discussion where it's at so sig can answer for himself.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Post the same thing he did the next day, but earlier.

He should have been finished traveling, had a working PC, and been out of school earlier?

LoRab wrote:Not really, but analyizing me won't help you find baddies either, so....

What do you think of sig?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:What is ideal Jay? Once you've explained what is ideal, show me how to execute that.

"Ideal" can come in many different ways, there's no single description I can give you. The problem here is that we've arrived at Night 7 and you're casting suspicion upon people for reasons I'd associate with Day 1 accusations.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:As a mafia member, I get lazy, wary, and less involved as the game goes on (or some combination of those three). I think it's a good idea to watch for players who are doing that instead of watching the civilians continue to fight amongst and lynch themselves.

I don't necessarily disagree with this. What you're talking about though is not the same thing as a player being completely absent for a long stretch -- you're suggesting that the absence is purposeful, and part of an actual baddie strategy. Sometimes people just don't have time to play this game and don't bother trying; I can't begin to count the number of times I've seen civilians do that.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Why would a civilian sig log in right before the deadline and not post his presence? At that time, it had been roughly seven days since his previous post. The timing of the login coupled with a lack of communication doesn't sit well with me.

This just doesn't mean anything to me. Maybe we're of different minds here, but I don't see a reason to care about this. After seven days he was probably way behind on the game regardless of his alignment. What do you think a civilian sig would have done in this situation?

Quin wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Quin wrote:Trice tried to lynch his SK partner so he could take his chances winning with the civilians as opposed to winning as an indie. Aside from the fact that he's denying himself one of two possible win conditions, is there a feasible reason why he would not have done this?

I think that still equates to trice willfully making his own life harder in this game. That's not a move made by a player who wants to maximize his chance of getting a winner's banner.

Unfortunately any answer I provide to these assertions is clouded by the source (me) in the eyes of any reader, but I think y'all need to step back and re-assess Night 3 and Day 4. Trice was not under that much pressure and the play being assigned to him here is a panic. The circumstances don't match the action.

If you're not the serial killer, who is?

I don't know. I'd thought G-Man was a decent candidate for that himself, but no. Looking back to my trice-sourced analyses, my ordering was here.

Given BWT's absence, I'd expect the SK to have missed a kill recently if it was him. That leaves Marmot as the next-most likely, which is why I opted for that vote on Day 7. I think he's a viable candidate for either faction.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I am suspicious of them independent of each other.

BWT's disappearance right after I laid a case out against him is far from reassuring.

Do you really think he disappeared as a result of your case? This is the kind of suspicion that you've leaned on for most of the game and it's not ideal.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I also spotted sig online just before the deadline on Sunday (Night 6). More accurately, I saw on Sunday evening that his last online time was Sunday just before the deadline. He did not post at that time (but did on Day 7). I would've pointed this out sooner, but my hands were a bit tied.

What does that mean to you? His being online for a time without posting? What about that observation points you toward a baddie read?

Quin wrote:Trice tried to lynch his SK partner so he could take his chances winning with the civilians as opposed to winning as an indie. Aside from the fact that he's denying himself one of two possible win conditions, is there a feasible reason why he would not have done this?

I think that still equates to trice willfully making his own life harder in this game. That's not a move made by a player who wants to maximize his chance of getting a winner's banner.

Unfortunately any answer I provide to these assertions is clouded by the source (me) in the eyes of any reader, but I think y'all need to step back and re-assess Night 3 and Day 4. Trice was not under that much pressure and the play being assigned to him here is a panic. The circumstances don't match the action.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I have civ reads of both of them that have lasted most of the game.

Similarly, I've had mafia reads of you, sig, and BWT/Wilgy for a good portion of the game.

But this is the third time I've been stuck voting for someone I don't want to just to save my own ass, and watch as they take the brunt of it (trice's lynch coming later on). I tried to lynch BWT Day 5, but trice was lynched instead. I tried to lynch BWT yesterday, but you were (sort of) lynched instead. I was pleased that you got the votes yesterday, but less pleased that nothing came of it.

Your reads seem to be more sorted than mine are. I would struggle to name two confident civilian reads right now. Do you believe sig and BWT are teammates, or are your suspicions of them independent?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I've almost been lynched three times now. But I'm stubborn, and I haven't thrown in the towel.

I think the answers you and Epi have given to my question amount to trice throwing in the towel.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I'm a little miffed that you guys are only interested in lynching me when I'm cursed. That's hard to defend against (especially when I'm trying to post on my phone because I'm on an airplane or whatever). Just bloody do it when I can speak if you're going to do it.

Numerous people have voiced the suspicions they have of you on days when you've been able to speak. What defenses would you have provided on Day 7 if you could have?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I haven't said much about LoRab, you're right there. Dom falls in the same boat. Tell me why LoRab could be bad.

I'd also love to have my mafia reads progress, but the two people I wanted to lynch on Day 4 are still alive and won't die. That's difficult to move past.

Is that to say you feel you should be paying those two more attention, or that you read them as town? I'll look back and retrieve my long-ago stated concerns about her.

Moreover trice turned against me well before he was under lynch pressure.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Wert Trice.

I think he felt the pressure that he was going to be lynched, so he called out the man he knew to be the SK. If we manage to lynch Jay first, trice converts to civilian and maybe gets some breathing room to live on after leading a lynch on the SK.

The SK dying before casketjack exposes his role, which in this case would make trice a confirmed civilian and a kill magnet. In a game where survival is required to win, that's not conducive to winning.

Quin wrote:When was the last time anybody was silenced? We've all checked in today, right? There could only be one baddie left, since Sleep can't kill and silence at the same time.

I think Sleep is the only role that can kill right now regardless of who's alive. It doesn't appear the mafia team can give the kill to anyone they want, it has to be the predetermined role in the order assigned.

DrWilgy wrote:Would've voted Sig from what I read.

Why?

We've spent nearly the whole game staying quiet on these night polls. They likely have some influence on the game as evidenced by the fact that the options keep decreasing in number as we "select" them. I wonder if some of the game's question marks, like the number of insanifications, can be tied to those polls somehow.

LoRab wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

LoRab wrote:And your analysis between me and MM could be done between any 2 players and show equally inconclusive material

That's technically possible; I haven't done any other analyses of that type. Throw two names at me of players you think might be baddie teammates and I'll have a look.

LoRab wrote:Are you certain about him?

No. He's a suspect but he's not the only one. There's a lot to discuss about everyone alive.

How about do an analysis between yourself and Sig.

lol

I can include sig, but I'm not going to spend my time and energy analyzing myself. That won't help me find baddies. Who else?

Do you think sig and I are teammates?

You got it LoRab, I'll switch my selection to that one.

Epignosis wrote:I didn't understand what you meant by this post, so I didn't comment. Was it a joke?

It was a light-hearted response to your pledge. I've already seen my rolecard so it's not the same thing; that was my joke.

Hah.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'll reciprocate, Epi. If I don't turn out to be a civilian, I'll send out $50 to the charity of your choice.

Spoiler: show

Fake generosity still makes me look like a great guy in the moment.

Something has occurred to me:

This post was meant to be in good spirits, but it occurs to me that it might actually influence how people read me in this game. JJJ wouldn't throw his money away like that would he???

That's not my intention, please ignore this post when you judge my alignment. That's not in the spirit of the game and I should have considered that before I hit submit.

LoRab wrote:And your analysis between me and MM could be done between any 2 players and show equally inconclusive material

That's technically possible; I haven't done any other analyses of that type. Throw two names at me of players you think might be baddie teammates and I'll have a look.

LoRab wrote:Are you certain about him?

No. He's a suspect but he's not the only one. There's a lot to discuss about everyone alive.

I'll reciprocate, Epi. If I don't turn out to be a civilian, I'll send out $50 to the charity of your choice.

Epignosis wrote:If, at the end of this game, 3J turns out to be a civilian, I will donate $50 to the charity of his choice.

I'll have to do it in February, but I'll do it.

For the children.

I'd also call Dom/sig an unlikely team combination. I don't think a bad Dom would put a bad sig on the spot like he did on Day 7; it'd promote unnecessary and otherwise absent bad press for sig.

I didn't find the reasons you supplied for calling somebody good compelling.

Your voting record is shit.

You're not receptive to shit.

I'm offering more than you are Mr. Fuck Christmas.

I'm trying to determine how much thought you're actually putting into this. "Lynch JJJ because trice said so" is the easiest shit there is and you've been very comfortable with that.

Epignosis wrote:Trice points the finger at you. The serial killer is supposed to recruit him based on that? No. There are many other creative ways I can think of to get the serial killer to target you than blabbing the way he did.

Name them.

Epignosis wrote:One is clearly not the case because he could have done it earlier.

He could have done it when the thought occurred to him to do it.

Epignosis wrote:Two doesn't work because a recruitment didn't happen and Trice knew he was on his way out the door.

It doesn't make sense to discard a hypothetical because of how reality developed. We're talking about how trice might have thought through his decisions in anticipation of circumstance, not how circumstance actually developed. Those aren't the same thing.

Epignosis wrote:Trice was pissed at you.

He was pissed at me because I'm the SK and didn't find him in the space of three night phases? That's what you believe?

Trice's second post of Day 4

Trice's third post of Day 4:

triceratopzeuhl wrote:biggest change in Golden's theories over the course of day 3 was JJJ from Moderate Town & less likely than sloonei to be bad, to worried about JJJ

The first place trice went after the Golden kill was to insinuate that I was guilty of killing him. This is where his attacks on me began that day, at the very beginning of the phase, before any pressure had fallen on trice himself. There is no urgency for votes to be moved, there is no subtle signaling, there is only trice casting suspicion upon me which quickly developed into "JJJ is the SK".

That leaves us with a question that I think has an obvious answer:

Did trice want to be recruited by me, or did he want to lynch me?

Epignosis wrote:Thanks for reminding me.

I think trice is illogical, angry, and does not do things the same way you or I would. I know him from a music forum, but my mafia experience with him is limited. I don't know what he would do thrust into the role he was. It's unprecedented. He did call you the serial killer. Why would he do that if you weren't? You answer that one.

I don't believe you're a civilian Jay. I don't.

I already did. I can only speculate, but I do think an answer is available to those who are willing to look for it: even an unrecruited trice is likely to play the game in a way that anticipates recruitment. He has to signal the serial killer in some way or another to facilitate that since the SK is the one looking for him. It looks to me that trice's choice method of providing that signal was to point the SK finger at me and make it his loud crusade.

Doing this has a couple of effects for trice that can serve to his benefit:

1.) Making the SK chase a purposeful focus in his public behavior can itself serve as a signal to the true SK that he/she should check trice during a Night phase.

2.) In the event that the recruitment resolves successfully and his role is revealed, there isn't an obvious incriminating problem for both he and his potential partner (as there would be in a scenario where I'm the SK). He has glued himself to the wrong person, and in the event that I am lynched afterword that bond is severed by my non-SK flip. The two of them then have a real route to win the game.

3.) If he succeeds in his attempt to lynch me on Day 4, the bond is severed before he is recruited and he doesn't lose anything other than the negative credit for my civilian flip (and he may well have even suspected I was mafia). The only risk he endures then is someone other than the SK picking up on his signal and theorizing such publicly -- a problem that I don't think he'd find particularly frightening.

There's my answer. I think my question was an important one that needs to be addressed in a way more thorough than "I don't know, I'm not trice". Why did he try to lynch me on Day 4? Why was his first move on Day 4 to make a clear motion against me before he was under any pressure himself, one that progressed quickly into him yelling that I am the serial killer? That's not a player being "illogical and angry" -- that's a player throwing the game for himself. Do you believe that trice threw the game for himself?

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Can you name two players who you believe are definitely not baddie teammates? Name as many combinations as come to mind.

I don't like giving you ideas about whom to kill.

Great opportunity for you to talk about this:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Nobody has addressed this:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:A point about the trice controversy that I'm not sure has been adequately addressed:

Those who think I'm the SK and trice exposed me -- do you assert that trice wasn't genuinely trying as hard as he could to get me lynched?

If I'm the SK, trice didn't merely out me. He tried his best to lynch me too, otherwise unprovoked and unpressured. Explain that to me. I think there's a readily visible motive for him to erroneously paint me as the SK*, but there is not a readily visible motive for him to try to lead the lynch of the player upon whom one of his win conditions rests. If you accept that reality, that means you accept that trice didn't care about winning the game. You accept that trice screwed his potential teammate over to no gain of his own.

*even without having been recruited, he can still play in a way that anticipates recruitment. By screaming and yelling about the SK he is by default revealing himself to the true SK that it's a role he is placing inordinate focus on -- that serves as a signal and can facilitate the recruitment. By focusing that screaming and yelling on someone who is not the SK (me), he ensures that when his role is publicly revealed, he doesn't expose both himself and his teammate. Any suspicions originating from that reveal are directed upon me and my false lynch safeguards them both.

So, everyone who has defaulted to the notion that I am the SK because trice said so -- it is your responsibility to answer this. Off-hand I can name: Epignosis and Dom. Marmot and LoRab too, though their suspicion has been less SK-focused. Those who are cursed I understand you can't answer now. Do it later.

Quin wrote:Not off the top of my head. I'll have a more thorough look at it tomorrow when we know where we're standing with living players and night kills.

I'm finding it more difficult to come up with these than I anticipated. The only combination that I think looks unlikely at face value is Epignosis/Marmot, because I do think Epi has made a real effort to lynch him. I could narrow it down further by eliminating town reads, but there aren't many of those frankly and it would still leave me with way too many analyses. Meh.

Quin wrote:3J, does that analysis lead you to think they could be a mafia/mafia team, or could they just share BTSC?

I can't imagine they'd have civilian BTSC considering LoRab's recent behavior. Even if she's unwilling to place a meaningful MM vote, casting suspicion on him at all like she has would seem counterproductive to that cause.

It might be worth doing more analyses like that one. It proved very effective for me late in Mad Max when I was trying to isolate the last two mafia members by team-oriented process of elimination. There are probably too many possible combinations in this array of players for that to be practical, but I might be able to narrow down some of the more likely possibilities.

From there I pose a general question to whoever:

Can you name two players who you believe are definitely not baddie teammates? Name as many combinations as come to mind.

Do LoRab and Metalmarsh89 make compatible mafia teammates?

Posts by LoRab about MM:

Large spoiler incoming
This content is not all in perfect order because it's hard to keep track when searching for all of Metalmarsh's/Marmot's/MM's nicknames.

Posts by MM about LoRab not previously covered:
~~~

Their earliest interactions are chummy banter, with Marmot offering up the first read (civilian read on LoRab). Eventually LoRab responds in kind, but generally they don't talk much about how they read one another. MM restated a civ read a few times throughout the game. LoRab's read eventually turned south as of Day 6. She hasn't really pursued his lynch though. Day 6 was a mega-wagon on me (she voted MM after my wagon had taken off and it was unlikely to change in that direction) and on Day 7 she wouldn't vote for him due to his cap lock insanification.

One thing I notice in MM's posts is that his read on LoRab went in the civilian direction early on, but he didn't do much to explain that read. His read hasn't changed since then as far as I can tell. He was critical of Golden for defending LoRab based on what he called uninspired reasoning. I don't know what Marmot's own reasoning is for his civ read on LoRab. LoRab has been less kind to MM lately, but it hasn't meant much because of his insanification and her claimed scruples related to that.

This interaction doesn't scream mafia-mafia at me, but I do think it's compatible. They've given each other a pretty wide berth for most of the game. The worst of it is LoRab's recent conduct -- the late Day 6 flier vote that didn't amount to anything, and her unwillingness to vote for him on Day 7.

LoRab wrote:Put my vote on G-Man for now. I will sort of be on, so I could be convinced to change it, if I am able to see posts and not be paying attention to meeting. Minly because I don't want to vote for MM because I'm too iffy on that. And because I'm finding his posts more suspicious than sig's. And anyone else on this poll, I feel pretty good about. So, ironically, it's kind of process of elimination.

Not a fan. I'm considering a Marmot/LoRab mafia team, because it's too late in the game to be concerned with voting for an insanified player. I'll look into their posts to see if I can substantiate that suspicion more conclusively.

The lynching fortunes in this game have been almost as dire as they were for the first 75% of Turf Wars.

Thanks for the extra day G-Man and for the effort you provided while you were here.

Voted MM. I think he is a good dual candidate for both baddie factions. I might not be home for the deadline.

Dom:

Posting from my phone so I won't use quotes.

~ The core of my concern about your teatment of sig today is that you're being opportunistic. I think MM's timing-based accusation of timmer was weak, and I think your timing-based accusation of sig is weak.

~ I don't give a crap that you suspect me. Who doesn't suspect me? I'm the odds-on lynch whenever I'm back in the poll. My interest is in figuring out who's bad before that happens if it must. Your handling of sig this phase is suspicious and I am treating it accordingly.

~ trice opened Day 4 immediately against me before a bandwagon ever formed on him. That logic doesn't hold.

I'll leave you be for the moment G-Man so you can focus on

G-Man wrote:And now for those vote reads...

G-Man wrote:I realize it was an odd question ask (what people felt about the player I subbed in for) but I was curious to know if I had room to breathe at first or if I would have to launch into razzle-dazzle-don't-lynch-me mode right out of the gate. Mental preparation, you know?

If you had joined the game and been thrust into razzle-dazzle-don't-lynch-me mode, what would your posts have looked like? How would you have approached that?

Nobody has addressed this:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:A point about the trice controversy that I'm not sure has been adequately addressed:

Those who think I'm the SK and trice exposed me -- do you assert that trice wasn't genuinely trying as hard as he could to get me lynched?

If I'm the SK, trice didn't merely out me. He tried his best to lynch me too, otherwise unprovoked and unpressured. Explain that to me. I think there's a readily visible motive for him to erroneously paint me as the SK*, but there is not a readily visible motive for him to try to lead the lynch of the player upon whom one of his win conditions rests. If you accept that reality, that means you accept that trice didn't care about winning the game. You accept that trice screwed his potential teammate over to no gain of his own.

*even without having been recruited, he can still play in a way that anticipates recruitment. By screaming and yelling about the SK he is by default revealing himself to the true SK that it's a role he is placing inordinate focus on -- that serves as a signal and can facilitate the recruitment. By focusing that screaming and yelling on someone who is not the SK (me), he ensures that when his role is publicly revealed, he doesn't expose both himself and his teammate. Any suspicions originating from that reveal are directed upon me and my false lynch safeguards them both.

So, everyone who has defaulted to the notion that I am the SK because trice said so -- it is your responsibility to answer this. Off-hand I can name: Epignosis and Dom. Marmot and LoRab too, though their suspicion has been less SK-focused. Those who are cursed I understand you can't answer now. Do it later.