The Syndicate

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:19 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:15 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:23 pm Maybe dumb read, but Dolby seemed the most bothered about "the triad" and even dubbed it as so. And then spf and Sloonei is poisoned. MANY CONVENE MUCH SUSPICIOUS

This actually moves me a bit, so I don't think it's dumb. I can also note that Dolby has chosen me (quite specifically me, while still strongly town reading Sloonei) as the member of the triad to tinfoil.

Here I am, alive and unpoisoned.

Dolby isn't the only one. Falcon is currently voting for you. You developed a wagon yesterday (even if it was never serious). G-Man put you in his POE, while Sloonei was a TR.

My first doubt about This Theory would be that I'd expect at least G-Man to realize that confirming Sloonei as town is going to ruin Jay tinfoil.

But that's a weak doubt so meh.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:23 pm Maybe dumb read, but Dolby seemed the most bothered about "the triad" and even dubbed it as so. And then spf and Sloonei is poisoned. MANY CONVENE MUCH SUSPICIOUS

This actually moves me a bit, so I don't think it's dumb. I can also note that Dolby has chosen me (quite specifically me, while still strongly town reading Sloonei) as the member of the triad to tinfoil.

Here I am, alive and unpoisoned.

Works for me.

I missed EOD1. Anyone who was there:

Did you ever have the impression that falcon could seriously be eliminated over sig?

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:21 pm Alright Dizzy, I’m game.

[VOTE: Falcon Man] aubergine

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:25 pm A new triad emerges. Me, Dizzy, and Stayposi. I dub us the falcon killers

Is this satisfactory to dissociate? Asking anyone.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:12 pm So I can see how this could mean Falcon - Dolby - G-Man team. Yesterday's off-wagon votes really don't matter because there was never a risk of someone other than Lime Coke dying. I'm still struggling with a 4th though

What's the most significant reason you'd keep SoA off of that team?

@Johanna and @ilario I'd be appreciative if you could each tell me how you feel about/read each other.

@NotAnAxehole, I think in most games I'd agree with your rationale on ilario/SoA -- if ilario is mafia, then the read looks like ordinary TMI. This time I'm a bit more cautious simply because of what I think my lead strategy would be as mafia in an 11 vs. 4 (town read my whole team as much as possible and cruise through a bad POE).

I just took another look though and reminded myself why I separated them:

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:00 am

ilario wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:57 am

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:50 am

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:48 am I might be leaning Ilario town based on vibes.

Dangerous as fuck to do that but I'm letting it rip.

I thought his catch up was pretty good. Why do you think it's dangerous to town lean him?

Why aren’t you worried that I’m pocketing you ? Normally people who haven’t played with me always react super paranoid when I start to tr them very strongly out of the blue

Because I know I'm townie as fuck. It doesn't surprise me if other people see that too. If you or anyone else who may be a wolf wanna pocket me they can go right ahead, I enjoy staying alive as long as possible in games. As I said, I'm not a noobie and I don't have an inherent distrust over early townreads like someone in the middle of their mafia career might have after being burned. I like to go with the flow and seeing what happens first.

This exchange breaks from the purity of the "full town read, balls-to-the-wall, ride or die" mentality that I have in mind when I think of mafia strategies. At least they spent this time talking about it in a meaningful way.

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:54 pm What makes ya guys think ilario would poison Stayposi? Is there somethin' I'm missin' here?

This is a smaller point, but if SoA is mafia it looks like someone who knows my ilario-killed-SPF theory is wrong.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:51 pm @JaggedJimmyJay

Our Ilario read is quite similar in that you have him not super likely with Marmot & SoA.

So I'm concluding that Ilario can only be mafia in the world:

Ilario - Dolby - G-Man - Johanna (Which I think was one of the potential worlds when I initially drew up the PoE).

So we agree on that?

Off-hand, yes. The only alternative would be to include Dizzy as mafia.

I want to re-examine the ilario/SoA interaction. I can’t recall what I saw to green it.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:36 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:35 pm @Sloonei if you want your time alive say the word. We’re at L-2.

Which interactions (Just give me players) are you clearing from being partnered with Ilario?

Until I can spend some time on my laptop and do proper research, I would stick to this. The only confident dissociation is from you. I have a few less confident dissociations (lighter green), perhaps similar to what you call “one-way”.

ilario wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:34 pm Oh well I just voted:gman and I see that my top towns and sloonei are on Dolby, if y’all want me to change lmk

G-Man might as well be an equivalent vote for me, so you’re good.

@Sloonei if you want your time alive say the word. We’re at L-2.

Let’s try to stay civil, gang. We’re hanging in there!

Sure. [VOTE: Dolby] aubergine

I very rarely play with this ties rule, so I’m open to theory. I believe it’s more common on 451.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:08 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:59 amI currently have more doubts about voting falcon, Dolby, and SoA than I have about voting you.

What are your doubt for Dolby?

He’s seemed vaguely town here and there more often than G-Man has seemed vaguely town here and there. I don’t trust either of them.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:05 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:04 pm ilario would be our present sticking point, NAA. I’m considering the possibility, but will need to review things to really determine if I view him as likely mafia.

Ilario being in your PoE or not has no baring on my statement.

Who are you referring to that I’ve not voted for?

ilario would be our present sticking point, NAA. I’m considering the possibility, but will need to review things to really determine if I view him as likely mafia.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:01 pm Mild concern, JJJ has about the same PoE as me, yet has thus far refused to vote anyone who I only see a 1-way dissociative from him.

I think votes are meaningless until they end the day, so whatever.

Mafia decides ties. Don’t tie. This is Nanook-typical.

G-Man wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:57 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:51 am [VOTE: G-Man] aubergine

Tell me why here and why now please.

I currently have more doubts about voting falcon, Dolby, and SoA than I have about voting you.

G-Man wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:55 am What do you even want from me?

These are infamous words.

@Dyslexicon: you asked me about strong dissociations. The dark greens on my chart are all I can offer now. I will deep deeper later.

I do think this would be a great way for you to REALLY reassess ilario though. Instead of staring at his posts, focus on interactions within the set of players remaining as possible suspects to see if you believe a team really does exist in there. If there are enough disrupted associations, then you’ll be forced by the numbers to reconsider your fleabag husband.

Johanna wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:51 am You might have me in your PoE but I don't consider myself in question, really.

I’m not sure that I do either.

The second tally there is an interesting one with three names in question all on falcon.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 9:57 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:00 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:58 pm This is the JJJ despair post.

I don't know why that's despair. That's a very subjective assessment, so I'll just ask a related but different question:

- Would it be wise for me, as a town member, to keep pummeling away at what I have been doing without reconsidering my approach with no dead mafia and only one mischop still available?

There's some interesting language here...you pummeling away, the wording there makes it sound as tho it's fatiguing for you, defeating.

You've had quite a bit of success playing Maf, you're a very talented player. Tell me, do you throw out your playbook cuz' of 2 mislynches?


This post is also subtly seeded with the despair I mentioned, and it's antithetical to your town play IMO

Why didn’t you answer the question?

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:22 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:21 am

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:14 am And then if we hit town, we take the 50/50 on:

G-Man
Johanna

Why are these two 50/50?

I'm not interested in a discussion unless a consensus is established prior. Diving into details is pointless, without the plan town loses.

I’m just making sure you’re not still relying on Dizzy’s rescinded claim.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:14 am And then if we hit town, we take the 50/50 on:

G-Man
Johanna

Why are these two 50/50?

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:28 am

ilario wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 5:44 am A part of me would hate losing to NAA if he’s mafia, but I think he’s probably just town

Based on what I just said, this gives Ilario 75% solve, the fact that he doesn't have it means he's mafia.

What do you think of the potential for ilario and Dyslexicon to both be mafia?

@NotAnAxehole is Marmot still high on your radar?

No immediate protest to either of those assertions.

I think they've both sounded tone-town at points, but the standard is higher than that now.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:12 pm we can sleep and go to 5v4

That sounds right. I think. It'd be 5 vs. 4 with town already dying. Hit mafia and town dies, go to night phase 4 vs. 3. Later-rinse-repeat down to 2 vs. 1, only one player survives. I'm talking to myself.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:09 pm I told you your solve was wrong based on the falcon/limecoke limecoke/Dolby interactions, but you promptly ignored me.

I will sheep anything you put out though because I have no clout.

I responded directly to you and didn't ignore a thing. I did tell you that your view of "how things work" is wrong, as a holistic representation of how Mafia is played on this site when you disparage it for absolutely no reason.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:05 pm Just a quick question with regards to mischops and math. Have you been factoring in that nighkills are delayed? Does that matter at all in determining how many mistakes we’re allowed to make?

I have been treating the poisons as regular kills by the numbers. Let me consider that now though since you do represent an extra vote today.

11 vs. 4 to start

sig dead, Lime Coke dead, SPF dead

8 vs. 4 currently

If we miss today, plus Sloonei dead, we enter Night 3 at 6 vs. 4

Poison

Start Day 4 at 6 vs. 4 (traditionally Mimlo, but now Limlo because of the dying civilian).

I don't think we gain a day because of poison. I could be missing something.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:04 pm not knowing SoA makes this worse tbh

Maybe it doesn't have to be this way.

@Son of Anarch would you be able to provide a link to a single past town game and past mafia game from other places you've played?

I rarely make this token request, but now it might actually help.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:00 pm Nah jay town fam

Any feelings about falcon in this exchange?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:58 pm This is the JJJ despair post.

I don't know why that's despair. That's a very subjective assessment, so I'll just ask a related but different question:

- Would it be wise for me, as a town member, to keep pummeling away at what I have been doing without reconsidering my approach with no dead mafia and only one mischop still available?

Town has exactly one more mischop available before we enter elimination phases (final X). The margin for error is tiny and we cannot afford to have even one member of the town faction say "whatever, I'll just die".

@Dolby
@falcon45ca
@G-Man
@Johanna
@Son of Anarch

For those of you that is/are town-aligned, our ability to win this game is likely contingent upon your desire to win. I don't want this to sound like PRESSURE, and it's certainly not intended as hostile. You've all already done things to contribute. What I mean is that if there are mafia members outside this group, they've already established a foothold in this thread that is going to be extremely difficult to break without your intervention (specifically yours). I'm sure it's irritating to be continually stuck within a POE pool every time you click on the thread, but now is the best and perhaps last chance to turn that around. After two mischops to start the game, I think almost every member of the town faction is going to be open-minded to a new view of the game. I am absolutely listening to everything you have to say and will be stoked every time I see a new post pop up from each of you.

Some or all of you might find me suspicious. That's okay. It's a natural thing to expect under the circumstances. I will try my best to follow my own advice here and give you the best chance of finding my own innocence.

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:40 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:38 pm On some level that falcon post sounds honest despite my questions. I will need someone less biased to talk to me about it.

[VOTE: Son of Anarch] aubergine

Man, I don't even mind the vote on me. I admit I haven't done anything. I just want to say though that I will be around a lot on Saturday to possibly post and give my thoughts if this is the route you guys choose to go down. So please don't hammer me early.

Saturday is the night phase starting at 7pm edt. I'm in no hurry to hammer, but your time to do things on that specific day will be inherently restricted.

On some level that falcon post sounds honest despite my questions. I will need someone less biased to talk to me about it.

[VOTE: Son of Anarch] aubergine

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:28 pm It does go back aways, to when I noticed you're paying an extra amount of attention to me basically since the start. I'm an easy mislynch for Maf, as I'm generally thought to be scummy, but you've been shading me throughout the game.

Sure, I have been doing that. I haven't found a good reason to town read you. Is there a good reason to town read you?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:28 pmEven when you've brought up my town meta, it's always been sprinkled with "but he could be Maf"

No offense, but your "town meta" might be the single easiest town meta to fake on this game roster. Refusing to trust people and accusing everyone of everything is pretty simple to replicate. If "meta" is all I have for you, then I feel like I have very little.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:28 pmThere's also the manner in which you described your scum game to me....the only thing I can see different from that description to your play this game is the real time interaction, which since you pointed it out, would be easy to work into your play this game.

I won't fight this as it's going to be take-it-or-leave-it wifom regardless. I'll just say that my mafia tendency to engage less real-time dialogue isn't so much "strategic" as it is a concession that I am not as good at it when I'm bullshitting. It's not something I could just add to the equation without a lot of difficulty.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:28 pmAlso, I've noticed a weird air of...despair? from you this game that I've never seen with your town game. In other games when there's been mislynches of "100% Maf" I've played with you, you've always kept a spirit of towny optimism: that the game state is within town's grasp, and that town need not panic or sway off course. It's different this game, it's almost like you're waiting to throw in the towel

This one I don't understand. I had a period of uncertainty in Day 2, and then after I did a lot of work I emerged with a confident solve proposal with the entire mafia team in it. It doesn't get much more self-assured than that. I don't know if you have ever seen me go 0 for 2 though, so you wouldn't have much basis to compare to for this current state of affairs. Normally I get one by now. When I don't I have to be conscious of that and consider ways to adapt. At no point have I done anything resembling "throw in the towel" or "despair" though. That's hard to take seriously. I have made over 400 posts and am still going strong under worse conditions than ever.

@Marmot how do you feel about the flood of confident town reads you have received in this game?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:20 pm I just told you?

In more simple terms, bad luck.

Okay then. I'll just zip it while you continue your solving.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:13 pm Huh, I totally did catch you in this game and I forgot all about it!

After having a look back at my posts in that old game, it is apparent that I was quite

S T I L T E D

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:18 pm Well, through no fault of your own I'm sure, you had the luck to rand wolf this game.

Okay sure cool, but I am hoping to hear about the theory. Why's Jay mafia?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:15 pm I've actually got an interesting theory, wanna hear it?



[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

I'm fascinated. Tell me more.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:04 pm I didn’t play GY!BE.

You had 141 posts

A correct POE pool of five still wins the game. To get there I think a lot of focus needs to be given to solidifying the positions of these players:

Dyslexicon
ilario
Marmot
NotAnAxehole

I will leave Tony out of it while he remains uncountered. If all of the names in this post are town, then we're still position for a win. If even one of them isn't, I think we're positioned for a loss. Every town member could stand to give special attention to ensuring we get these folks right I believe.