The Syndicate

In the we're screwed if all the inactives are civilians universe, having one who just dropped by for a vote is more valuable than one who did not. For whatever that's worth (to RDW's credit over JK or MP).

rundontwalk2 wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 1:02 pm [VOTE: dragomir] aubergine

I have a final in 48 minutes, then another final tomorrow. Sorry y'all.

I don't believe Dragomir was the chief counterwagon to RDW as of this vote, so at least it's not just cheap self-preservation spam.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 9:23 amBecause if you're scum, everything I do in this game is worth nothing without assessing that.

Do you believe that you're exhibiting symptoms of your lost faith in the collective town: Doing a lot of work yourself, but not interacting and driving others as much? How are we to differentiate that from a lack of engagement in the thread?
And if you're trying to solve the game yourself, what are your conclusions?

Here's the fixed compilation:



Unfortunately I won't be able to finish Lux and Owner. Neither of them should be given a pass, so that's something that I hope civilians at least examine moving forward.

A couple of orange spots can be dissolved if the green peek on DDL is to be believed (and I am inclined to believe it). The sea of yellow that remains is an annoying byproduct of having a sea of inactivity to contend with, but I still think there's reductive value here.

~ Two present suspects seem compatible to me: RDW and Dragomir.
~ I can dissociate you from two people, and that's more than I can say of others currently receiving votes.
~ I didn't think Mac was a likely teammate of DDL before the peek reveal, so that solidifies the perspective that there's no teammate gambit at play.
~ Really, the sparsity of indicators here might itself be the best indicator of one or two inactive mafia member(s). If the active players' interactivity leaves me with dead ends and lacking confidence, then by interactive process of elimination, this represents a concrete case against the players who otherwise cannot be cased -- one of the most valuable applications of an exercise like this.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 6:49 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 4:19 am Dragon D. Luffy, a sentence or two summary of your faith in Dragomir would be swell.

It's much, much easier to see his posts from the lens of a civ who just thinks he is the shit than from an evil person trying to act like a civ.

You'd think after the fifth time we called him out of his crap, he'd have backed down.

Maybe he is a baddie who is commited to the extreme to double down on everything he says and never show weakness, but I think that's a little hard, psychologically, when your goal is to survive, not to be right.

I don't think this is an unreasonable perspective. I'm not that concerned, for example, with post-flip gloating. There's a plain human element in wanting to broadcast one's own reads victories. The stuff that gives me the most trouble is his handling of me. When you or others have voiced suspicion of me, he has responded with language suggesting, at least as I interpret it, near certainty that you're wrong and that I am good.

I'm the subject of the read. I am prone to bias when judging that read. I want to know what other people think of Drago's handling of me.

I'm gonna have to get some sleep. Good talk.

[mention]rundontwalk2[/mention] calling to you from the void echo echo echo

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention], a sentence or two summary of your faith in Dragomir would be swell.

Owner of a Lonely Heart wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 12:12 amI think I'm losing interest in playing mafia again.

I know the feeling. It's great to have you around for this one regardless.

Owner of a Lonely Heart wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2019 12:12 amPart of me still doesn't want to trust Lux because of their interactions with Ultra on day 1.

That does warrant a revisit.

Luxurious wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 11:58 pmDo you guys modkill inactives?

Host's prerogative. Most of them here don't care for it, but some do. I won't speak for our host here.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 10:51 pm You ain't talking to me, but I'm f#&@ing moved.

[VOTE: Jigglyjammyjorp] aubergine

Why are you expletive moved?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 10:33 pmBut Jay is not, because he is not engaging. He is not talking to us. He is in his little world, filling the Jay checklist while the rest of us are mind melding.

I'm about to say one of the most arrogant things I have ever said. It is going to sound extremely petty, and I have been holding it back literally all year. I think it's necessary to say though, because it is the core mindset underlying everything I have done on this Day 4:

I don't think I can win as a civilian if I don't solve the entire game by myself. Period.

I seriously don't want to offend anyone. I think very highly of so many players in this game and around the community. 2019 has been a hot fucking mess though, and a recurring theme has emerged in games I have lost almost without exception:

Civilians start fast and take a lead. I am generally an important part of it or spearheading it outright. I die. The civilians engage in goofy-ass decision-making that runs contrary to everything I had said while alive, and then we all lose. Let me count the ways: Shockheaded Peter, Community, Gossip Girl, Steely Dan -- this happened in all of them. I have to do it all myself. Thank goodness World Flags wasn't the same story, thanks to some fluke luck.

So I am doing it all myself. My priority is solving the entire game. I solve the entire game by analyzing the shit out of every nook and cranny of its thread to this point. Anything else is secondary to that. Because if I don't, I will lose. I may still lose if I do.

If you don't believe me, I can't be assed. I believe you're a civilian, and I hope you'll view my posts through the civilian lens because the motives ought to be easy to identify if you're looking for them.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 7:04 pm All you did was setup yourself to be killed N5 Mac and if scum is ballsy enough then N4(N2 and N4 doc is still lurking so maybe they won't do it.)

yuck

Why should Mac care about this? Does it make him bad?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 5:38 pm POE is 'process of elimination'.

When a townie starts the game, they think anyone could be scum. As they townread people, they eliminate them from consideration, and end up with a POE: a shorter list of people who could be scum.

It's like a list of scumreads, but it focuses on getting rid of townreads more than putting on scumreads.

So you do know what it means you sonovabitch.

Actually now that I look, RDW hasn't posted in six days himself; that's even longer than Jessie. So fuck me. Everything is bad.

speedchuck already looked into the numbers, and I want to double-check it. The MP variable adds a wrinkle that needs to be accounted for mathematically -- if he doesn't show up and vote (and the slot isn't replaced in the late game), then he might as well be dead. If that's a civilian vote, it has ramifications that need to be understood.

11 players alive right now. 8 vs. 3.

At face value, if a night kill is projected each night that's 2 mislynches to a 4 vs. 3 LyLo.

If MP is a civilian and never votes, that effectively becomes 7 vs. 3, which is one mislynch short of an unofficial MyLo (again projecting nightly kills).

If MP is a mafioso, then his absence represents a significant civilian advantage by the numbers -- we cannot count on that or make that assumption. As such I think we need to be in a one mislynch mindset. That amounts to a POE of four.

Jessie is also plausibly a no-show in the late game. I think he's more likely to return than MP, but who knows. All of the same applies. If both are civilians, that'd place us one mislynch short of an unofficial LyLo at present. Any other arrangement dictates the numbers accordingly.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 4:50 pm

Dragomir wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 4:42 pm

Luxurious wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 4:17 pm

Ultra wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:29 pm [VOTE: JaggedJimmyJay] aubergine

I don't know speedchuck or his meta or whatever but he town read and defended him far too soon. Also switched his vote to a player who isn't active instead of pursuing DDL

If they’re partners than Ultra’s progression was legit
>ew his trap sucked
>he caught someone as a joke it makes sense people voted him
>someone townread him for that? For reals?
>i’m gonna vote the guy townreading my partner because his play doesnt make sense to be townread

Wish nova was here to tell me if this is legit how ultra thinks as scum

I can tell you. And the answer is...kinda.

So... do you think speed could be scum?

This warrants an answer, [mention]Dragomir[/mention].

Yeah I copied over shit in the RDW/speedchuck area. Just forget about the chart for now and refer to the analyses in their text forms. Same information.

I think I may have jacked up the colors in my chart when I copied over to add Lux and Owner. Lemme double-check rill quik.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 4:32 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 2:28 pm Please tell me the remaining 4 pages I have to read are not just people trying to make Dragomir act reasonably and failing to do so.

Because it's making this catch-up boring.

The stuff that you guys find me to be doing as unreasonable is not as unreasonable as you may think.

I understand that gloating may be TMI and a bad thing and not giving town reads is also a bad thing but that's just part of my personality mate. I love being right and it hurts when I'm wrong. Basically why I keep playing mafia as I want to have correct reads and if they're wrong I'll use them as motivation.

Like come on, you guys can't be telling me you don't like rubbing it in once in a while.

Rubbing it in can be a great pleasure.

I feel like you've been rubbing it in about me on multiple occasions though, and my alignment has not been revealed. Every time someone has questioned me, you have responded with loud, assertive protests that it would be some kind of strategic impossibility. I struggle to believe that you really feel that way. Nothing in Mafia is so simple for a civilian. Preemptive gloats are a problem.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 4:22 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 1:11 pm He's made a big deal of ddl being clearly his preferred lynch, but whenever there's been an opportunity to put pressure on owner he's jumped onto her and says he'd be okay with lynching her, and same to rdw and jess. He's clearly focused on ddl, but he's also clearly keeping his options open.

[VOTE: dragomir] aubergine

What in Jesus name is wrong with this? I have my scum reads. I want to lynch one of them so of course I'm going to my options open to find a compromise in lynching one of my scum reads.

This query is indirectly related to the player salad notion that has been brought up. It was briefly described as a "tell", but I don't think that quite does it justice. Everyone has "tells" they talk about and most of them are bullcrap in my opinion. This one has been tried and true in my experience, granting a limited sample size. I have kept track of it. I'm not surprised nutella specifically took interest in it here, because it's been her own worst enemy.

Most recently in World Flags Mafia

A compiled history of more player salad accusations that became mafia flips

Hurling out a list of four names as lynch prospects is genuinely a problem, and here is evidence to support that. I have long said that the prototype salad comes in this form: "I would be willing to lynch X, Y, Z, or maybe W". Dragomir's is missing the "maybe", but it's still a salad. I asked for one alternative to lynching Gemma and I received four names. That's not going to make a difference. It can't. I take this seriously.

As far as I got. Anyone who views Lux and/or Owner as major concerns will need to take up the helm. It's important work no matter what anyone says. I just lost Steely Dan as a direct result of not getting it done (and, frankly, about four other civilian games this year that started well and still ended with a flop).

I'm definitely no longer going to be able to finish my extended analyses this phase, so whatever. I'll fetch the goods and then figure out what the hell y'all are talking about as of the 9th of May, 2019 EST

fun times lasted way longer than anticipated. hi.

My first instinct is that DDL is genuine in his suspicion of me. As I just noted, we've been in a similar place before, and I can understand if he feels the need to stand as some resistance to my authority over the game.

just been invited out with me mates, so i'm away again for a bit

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 3:02 pm Something about you is giving me the heebie jeebies. Ain't gonna let go of that so soon.

Do your thing.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 2:35 pm Speedchucks sucks and is my second option.

tellmemore.gif

I'll take a look at nutella in isolation a bit later. At face value I appreciate her hard-nosed attack upon the game thread as a replacement. She turned 0 into 40-something quite quickly, and she doesn't seem concerned with appearances.

I don't know how I can be called disconnected from the game though. I am literally burying myself in this thread right now to an extent rare even for me.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 2:41 pm Congrats on the work. Regardlessly if you are civ or bad. I mean it.

But I'm not gonna let you use it as a shield.

You are disconnected from this game, and as long as I feel you are disconnected from this game I'll keep pushing you.

I think you have an impression of me born of the Mountain game that you haven't quite let go of. In that game my activity slacked, and I was forced into strategically disagreeable (and often overtly angry) moves because it was sorely imbalanced. It just so happens that game was also during one of my finals weeks. What I was reminded of before was Fire Emblem, which was my last mislynch to my memory. You were a part of that due in large part to comparisons to Mountains, at least some of which are quite familiar here:

I'm not suffocating on Jay / He is not ruling the town | Comparison to Mountains | Emotion

The point here is that time constraints can occur at any time and in any game, and that they have a real impact upon how a person plays including as a civilian. It's especially critical for me, because the way I often play demands a ton of my time. If I have to be away from the site frequently, my entire approach has to shift or else I am not going to be able to make the same kind of difference. I think you need to update your definitions.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 2:10 pm Jay is the second highest poster and he's spamming interaction posts. He's not gonna convince me has no time to play like a civ. He's not playing like a civ because he's not one. He's just doing coursework while pursuing easy lynches.

Now that finals are over and as a result I do have some time, I am spending that time doing the work I wanted to do in Steely Dan but could not because of time. I didn't get to the deep analytics until it was too late, particularly re: dunya, and I'm not doing that again. I don't give a shit if you feel inclined to call my work "spam". It's necessary, and I fully expect to lose the game if I don't do all of it.

Your suspicions remind me of something DDL. Stand by.

i do lunch now and maybe real grown-up work too

Do Luxurious and DDL make sense as mafia teammates?

Luxurious:
~ Banter | Banter
~ Either own the vote or dont vote bro - regarding DDL's handling of speed's no lynch thing
~ Found his saving face scummy but was fine with his posts thereafter.
~ lol at DDL's self-vote
~ Prods speedchuck for scum reads other than DDL
~ Gives DDL the town sticker when he gripes about Owner's suspicion of me
~ On the town list
~ Semi-banter
~ Generic prod about Gemma
~ There's too much here. I'm going to have to be more selective in what I talk about or these posts will take all day.
~ Would hound him but sees the town point of view
~ Lux is displeased with DDL's perception of the mafia trying to kill nova Night 1
~ DDL on the town list on Day 2
~ Suggests Mac's case may have more "equity" - In context I think this amounts to some support of Mac's case against DDL, though I am uncertain of Lux's precise meaning
~ Day 2 vote for DDL - moved to Dragomir five minutes later
~ Reads DDL as civilian but is interested in Mac's theory to the contrary
~ GTH good | Reiterated in response to Jessie query
~ Waffling on DDL today | Could be w/w with RDW
~ Prefers RDW lynch over DDL
~ Believes DDL can be associated with Ultra

Dragon D. Luffy:
~ There are a lot of posts DDL makes in response to Lux. Highlighting them all serves little purpose. Here's the ISO if you like. I'll focus on reads.
~ Lux is fine but not super fine
~ GTH good
~ Lux is posting a lot - k

~~~

Conclusion: Unsurprisingly there's a crap load here. Lux's read on DDL can be difficult to track at points; she has covered a pretty wide gamut from assertive civilian reads to multiple votes for DDL. DDL's responses to Lux tend to come with a neutral tone, one of comfortable chatter. I think they're compatible as teammates / orange.

Does anyone else have familiarity with the "chainsaw defense" concept, i.e. have they seen the accusation hurled before in other games? A little clarity on the precise context and meaning of the thing would be super.

Luxurious wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 12:30 pm I meant ddl not speed i was remembering it wrong

moar

Luxurious wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 12:25 pm Outside of ultra and speedchuck maybe

Tell me more

Luxurious wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 12:19 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 12:16 pm My face when every search of every page of Lux's posts nets 7,329 results.

I dont even have that many posts wtf happened

I don't understand how you can have 50 posts per page, and somehow have 30+ mentions of everyone on every page.

I've barely begun tho

My face when every search of every page of Lux's posts nets 7,329 results.

Do Luxurious and Dragomir make sense as mafia teammates?

Luxurious:
~ Can't remember Drago's posts on Day 1
~ Pokes Dragomir for his dissection of Owner's posts
~ I don't know what this question is
~ lol - in response to Drago beefing with Gemma's protection of me over nova
~ Prod about Jack suspicion | Similar prod the next [real time] day | More prodding re: Owner - to this point Lux has been willing to get in Drago's hair. Neat.
~ Epi volunteers vote to Lux and she goes for Dragomir. I don't know if this was her own called vote (as in, if she had placed it by this moment). Nonetheless she was anti-Drago | Wasn't sure she'd stay there
~ "Want to hear more" prod at Drago among others.
~ Agrees with nova that a civilian vigilante would have shot Dragomir
~ I'm going to start putting standard pokes and prods here instead of line-breaking them: Click | Click | Click | Click | Click | Click - okay hell with that, you get the point. Lots of pokes and prods.
~ Day 3 vote for Drago | Another
~ GTH bad
~ Prefers Gemma lynch over Drago
~ Kinda still reads Drago as scum, also kinda feels better about him today
~ Doesn't really have any partners for Drago
~ Too wolfy to be a wolf
~ I see no need to continue. This summarizes the progression.

Dragomir:
~ Drago has spoken with Lux a ton in this game, and essentially all of it pertains to the content I've already covered above. He has dedicated a lot of energy to explaining himself to her and to answering her questions. I get the impression he is seriously trying to impact Lux's opinion of him -- not such a necessary effort for teammates.
~ The only isolated "read" I found - civilian view on Lux based on her role claim

~~~

Conclusion: I don't get the impression that these two share a mafia BTSC. The wide breadth of poking, prodding, and responding indicates dissociation to me on both sides. Green.

Note: there's a good chance I have overlooked some things pertaining to Dragomir in these analyses when players have referred to him as "Drago". That screws with my searches as it conflicts with "Dragon D. Luffy".

I haven't really found a smoking gun interaction that I am inspired to call a red. Once again I call upon the civilian militia to identify the red interactions -- tell me which ones really get your adrenaline flowing. Tell me which ones make you poop in your pantaloons.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 11:35 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 11:32 am I finished these a bit more quickly than I anticipated. As such I'm going to include Lux and Owner for a more complete picture.

Will you include the Ultra w/w stuff you did on an earlier day in the spreadsheet?

I can do that.

I finished these a bit more quickly than I anticipated. As such I'm going to include Lux and Owner for a more complete picture.

Do rundontwalk2 and speedchuck make sense as mafia teammates?

Nothing from RDW.

speedchuck:
~ Generally unaware of RDW's posts - contrasts the question marks for the other shrug reads
~ RDW is compatible with DDL, ISO is icky | Reaffirmed
~ New third suspect
~ Middle orange in the rainbow from moments ago

Conclusion: I'm not inclined to view the recent suspicions as indicators of dissociation given that it's a pretty consensus read. No reason to say they're not teamed. Yeller.

Do Tsaiah / nutella and rundontwalk2 make sense as mafia teammates?

light orange in nutella's rainbow
nutella references RDW as potential low poster/easy target when voicing suspicions of Dragomir

Nothing from RDW. I have no reason to dissociate the two.

Do Tsaiah / nutella and speedchuck make sense as mafia teammates?

nutella:
~ Medium-orange in nutella's rainbow | Clarifies color
~ Projects more on speed later, relates to suspicion of Dragomir
~ Screams about hesitance as bad thing - relevance seems limited to actual game / general hunting methodology, don't care
~ Hates his reads list
~ Chatter about DDL in response to speed prod | More regarding myself
~ Lengthy list of gripes with speed
~ This has all happened today, so I don't feel the need to continue. Y'all can see it.

speedchuck:
~ Replace MP - k | Follow-up poke
~ Seems like town nutella to him so far
~ Gripes with nutella's Gemma vote post
~ Response to nutella suspicions - grants potential for both her being in a tunnel or her twisting him for mislynch prep

~~~

Conclusion: It doesn't strike me as likely that nutella would enter the game and decide that one of her first crusades should be to build a case against her teammate speedchuck. It can be compared with her beefs with Dragomir, who has already endured some measure of suspicion for much of the game and has more apparent "bus" necessity, at least in theory. speedchuck was in a relatively peaceful position before nutella arrived. So, like, why? I'll green it.

Do MacDougall and speedchuck make sense as mafia teammates?

MacDougall:
~ Can you show me where DDL touched you? k
~ Feels good about speedchuck on Day 2
~ Implicit defense of speedchuck by way of attacking Epignosis
~ GTH good | Follow-up jokes
~ Assertion that speed and I may have coordinated Gemma votes in BTSC | Lighthearted follow-up
~ Blendy McBlenderson | Well fuck

speedchuck:
~ Mac is more bold than he is - not sure what this means
~ Looking forward to the Mac attack
~ Seen nothing to think Mac is town and a 2nd suspect
~ Back to a towny boy on reread

~~~

Conclusion: I can make the case if I want to; they've had a chummy game together. I don't feel much inspiration from this though; they're technically compatible.

Do MacDougall and nutella make sense as mafia teammates?

MacDougall:
~ The same token prod mentioned before with MP and Tsaiah
~ GTH bad
~ Likes nutella's effort as a replacement

nutella:
~ Appreciates Mac poking me about the Gemma wagon
~ Green on the rainbow
~ Gripes about Drago's handling of Mac among many other things
~ Expanded / believes in Mac's assessment of Drago TMI

Conclusion: They're mutually positive on each other to this point. Okay. None of this jumps out at me as particularly alarming; they're technically compatible.

Do MacDougall and rundontwalk2 make sense as mafia teammates?

MacDougall:
~ Well if it isn't Skyler - RDW is Skyler. This post exists.
~ Mac made an early case that RDW and I are mafia teammates. Could be an attempt to attach a teammate to me wrongly.
~ You traitor! - k
~ RDW's vote on Mac is RDW being a biatch. Mac doesn't seem bothered.
~ GTH good
~ Prods nova about RDW vote

Nothing from RDW not already covered.

Conclusion: I'm a bit bugged. Mac's treatment of RDW was awkwardly chummy on Day 0/1 given the suspicions he expressed. Orange.

I'm getting too much cot damned yellow from this exercise. It's to be expected with numerous low-activity players. I would appreciate any second looks though.

Consider your strongest suspicions. Find me teammates for those people. Or non-teammates. Or both.